Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2019  (Read 73434 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15645
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 448
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #600 on: October 06, 2019, 07:45:20 PM »
A monster grew in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s why more may follow
Quote
The intensity of tropical cyclones likely will increase on average by 1 to 10 percent, with more Category 4 and 5 storms, but the overall number of hurricanes will stay the same or slightly reduce in number.

Also, Emanuel said he expects the odds of hurricanes rapidly intensifying – defined as an increase in wind speeds of 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period – will increase in a warming world. According to one of his studies, a storm that intensifies by 70 mph in the 24 hours before landfall occurred about once per century in the climate of the late 20th Century.

That may occur every 5-10 years by the end of this century if climate change continues without abatement.

“We are confident we will see more rapidly intensifying storms,” Emanuel said.
https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20191005/monster-grew-in-gulf-of-mexico-heres-why-more-may-follow
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15645
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 448
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #601 on: October 07, 2019, 04:05:35 AM »
Or is MJO an overrated threat?
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/6/19, 1:52 PM
Just don't see how we get out of October without significant development in the Caribbean or vicinity with this kind of look to the MJO. Global models hinting at something popping up in about a week. We shall see...
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1180903692414996483
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1625
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 631
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #603 on: October 08, 2019, 01:06:58 AM »
Hurricane Dorian Spilled More Than a Million Gallons of Oil in the Bahamas
https://earther.gizmodo.com/hurricane-dorian-spilled-than-a-million-gallons-of-oil-1838844023

Nearly 1.5 million gallons of oil have spilled since Hurricane Dorian destroyed an oil storage facility on Grand Bahama Island last month. The worst part? Equinor, the company that owns the oil facility, still isn’t done cleaning up the mess, which means the final total will be higher than it is right now.

Erik Haaland, a press officer with Equinor, confirmed to Earther on Monday that the Norway-based company had recovered 35,000 barrels of oil as of Sunday. That amounts to 1.47 million gallons—and the company still hasn’t released a final estimate of oil lost.

... The Equinor South Riding Point oil facility sits on the southern coast of Grand Bahama Island near the town of High Rock. It stored 75 million gallons of oil, Romauld Ferreira, the Bahamas’ environment and housing minister, told local news. But it remains unclear how much of that oil has been spilled into the environment. Enough has spilled to paint the on-site containers and leave a pungent smell throughout the area, according to those who have visited. And he clean-up effort has required 250 people and heavy machinery (such as vacuum trucks) on the ground.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #604 on: October 08, 2019, 06:30:26 PM »
It seems as though Jeff Masters has parted company with WUnderground. However he has a new blog at Scientific American:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/eye-of-the-storm/hurricane-dorian-was-worthy-of-a-category-6-rating/

Quote
Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes are rare. Only 7% of the 243 hurricanes observed since accurate satellite measurements began in 1983 have reached that catastrophic intensity. And it is truly exceptional to see a category 5 hurricane as strong as Hurricane Dorian, which powered ashore on Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas on September 1, 2019, with sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts up to 220 mph. Winds of this strength would make Dorian worthy of a category 6 rating, if it existed.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3042
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 362
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #605 on: October 08, 2019, 07:58:36 PM »
Jeff Masters is Leaving Weather Underground in November
 
   Dr. Jeff Masters  ·   October 3, 2019, 10:39 AM EDT

He's not quite or totally gone!  "The rumors of [his departure] have been greatly exaggerated"
:)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #606 on: October 09, 2019, 10:44:37 AM »
Typhoon Hagibis. 140 kt / 909 mb.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #607 on: October 09, 2019, 03:33:11 PM »
As we near the end of the 2019 season, global cylconic activity has been near normal.  Higher Atlantic and Indian ocean storms have been counter by lower Pacific (both eastern and western) activity.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3042
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 362
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #608 on: October 09, 2019, 05:41:52 PM »
As far as the Atlantic goes, here's the chart of historical storm frequency.  The first half of October has a pretty good chance of seeing a storm, still.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #609 on: October 10, 2019, 10:00:30 AM »
Hagibis maintains intensity. 140 kt / 904 mb.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1497
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 505
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #610 on: October 11, 2019, 12:38:28 AM »
Quote
On Sunday morning, it was a tropical storm. By Monday morning, it had Category 5 winds. Super Typhoon Hagibis, currently moving near the Federated States of Micronesia in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, is a monster that gathered strength at one of the fastest rates ever observed on Earth.

The storm has a massive shield of towering thunderstorms surrounding a pinhole-like eye that is just a few miles across.

Its 160 mph winds firmly establish it as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, looming as a behemoth on satellite after a period of extremely rapid intensification.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/07/tropical-storm-category-hours-super-typhoon-hagibis-intensifies-one-fastest-rates-record/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #611 on: October 11, 2019, 05:07:55 AM »
As we near the end of the 2019 season, global cylconic activity has been near normal.  Higher Atlantic and Indian ocean storms have been counter by lower Pacific (both eastern and western) activity.

Global cyclonic activity has not been "normal". Ask anyone in the Bahamas.

 If you mean the sum of the cyclonic winds or some other cherry, then the word you are looking for is average, not normal.

There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #612 on: October 11, 2019, 07:59:24 AM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1497
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 505
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #613 on: October 11, 2019, 08:02:33 AM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.
It happened 3 times in the XX Century & four times in the first 19 years of the XXI Century.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #614 on: October 11, 2019, 08:22:57 AM »
Some observations could be missed in the XX century.

This year has unusual category 5 cyclones but total activity was not outstanding in the Atlantic.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5225
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 406
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #615 on: October 11, 2019, 10:54:09 AM »
Time to consider the mainland?
Say a thousand kilometers away from the nearest salt water?

Terry

Darvince

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 283
    • View Profile
    • NSIDC Daily
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #616 on: October 11, 2019, 11:26:54 AM »
Many storms are only category 5 away from land, and before recon started in the 1940s, they would have been missed unless they struck land at category 5. And it wasn't until the 60s that we had the satellites to show us when we were missing a hurricane in the first place. If you take a look on Wikipedia (which has very nice coverage for tropical cyclones) at Atlantic hurricane seasons early in the 20th century, there is an abundance of category 2s and 3s that we simply don't see now that we have detailed observation across the whole ocean. Rapid intensification means that the distribution of hurricane intensities we see should have more Category 4s than 2s and 3s. Some of the lack of cat 4s/5s is because you will be hard pressed to get ship observations from stronger storms, simply as they're so likely to capsize or wreck when in a strong hurricane.

Here are a few that show what I mean (yes, I chose them myself and therefore they aren't wholly representative; no, I'm not trying to intentionally mislead you, I chose more active seasons because they show the phenomenon more clearly)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1909_Atlantic_hurricane_season


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Atlantic_hurricane_season


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1910_Atlantic_hurricane_season


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_Atlantic_hurricane_season


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1894_Atlantic_hurricane_season


For category 5, the earliest cat 5 I see that wasn't near or over land when it was thought to be category 5 is the 1938 New England hurricane.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #617 on: October 11, 2019, 11:52:47 AM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.


We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #618 on: October 11, 2019, 04:27:28 PM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.


We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.

Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #619 on: October 11, 2019, 07:11:40 PM »
When you talk about the Atlantic only, about the last 100 years. There is a giant difference. I can't remember what it was. But the number very big hurricanes more than doubled, if you calculate in groups of 10 years. It was something like that. At some point i was looking at these numbers, and there was no doubt possible how big the difference is.

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 821
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #620 on: October 11, 2019, 07:24:29 PM »
Hagibis starts to hit Japan, this will be a hard weekend for them.

wdmn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 346
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #621 on: October 11, 2019, 07:51:58 PM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.

We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.

Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813


"Climate change has already made Atlantic hurricanes more fierce, driving up the number of storms that rapidly intensify, become more lethal and difficult to forecast, according to new research led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Published Thursday in the journal Nature, the research looked at storms churning in the Atlantic over nearly three decades between the 1980s and 2000s and found the number of storms that underwent rapid intensification nearly tripled. The team considered natural variations in climate that might drive the increase, but still found the number “highly unusual.”

“I wasn’t surprised there was an upward trend, but I was surprised by the magnitude,” said lead author Kiernan Bhatia, who earned a doctoral degree from the University of Miami and completed the research while a fellow at Princeton University working with the NOAA team."


https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2019/02/08/climate-change-is-already-making-atlantic-hurricanes-more-fierce-study-finds.html

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #622 on: October 11, 2019, 09:20:47 PM »
There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.
1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, 2019. It was not extremely rare.

We are entering a new "normal". It doesn't matter how hard people deny it, the new normal won't last long. It will get worse.

Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813


"Climate change has already made Atlantic hurricanes more fierce, driving up the number of storms that rapidly intensify, become more lethal and difficult to forecast, according to new research led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Published Thursday in the journal Nature, the research looked at storms churning in the Atlantic over nearly three decades between the 1980s and 2000s and found the number of storms that underwent rapid intensification nearly tripled. The team considered natural variations in climate that might drive the increase, but still found the number “highly unusual.”

“I wasn’t surprised there was an upward trend, but I was surprised by the magnitude,” said lead author Kiernan Bhatia, who earned a doctoral degree from the University of Miami and completed the research while a fellow at Princeton University working with the NOAA team."


https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2019/02/08/climate-change-is-already-making-atlantic-hurricanes-more-fierce-study-finds.html

I would not be surprised either, starting with the lowest point.  NOAA went back to 1950, and found no overall trend (although there was a drop down the the 80s, and resurgence to previous levels since).  I guess who can make the data say whatever you like, if you just choose the right range.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #623 on: October 11, 2019, 10:26:01 PM »
The NHC has started issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa:

Quote
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by Saturday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, primarily over waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #624 on: October 12, 2019, 09:04:14 AM »
Typhoon Hagibis covers Japan almost completely.

vox_mundi

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1625
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 631
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #625 on: October 12, 2019, 09:19:00 PM »


https://phys.org/news/2019-10-heavy-lash-tokyo-powerful-typhoon.html

----------------------

NASA Sees Atlantic Subtropical Storm Melissa Form Off New England Coast
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-nasa-atlantic-subtropical-storm-melissa.html



Satellite data has confirmed the formation of Subtropical Storm Melissa. NASA's Terra Satellite provided a visible image the former Nor'easter turned subtropical storm off the coast of New England.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2019, 09:35:21 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #626 on: October 13, 2019, 02:06:03 PM »
Typhoon Hagibis covers Japan almost completely.

A "LinkedIn friend" of mine works for Nissan in Tokyo. Ryusuke reported yesterday:

Quote
Blackout in my area of Tokyo, thought about powering the house with V2H but I had to evacuate due to flood...

No further news from him since then.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15645
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 448
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #627 on: October 13, 2019, 04:23:46 PM »
One man was killed when a tornado flipped his car.

Typhoon Hagibis makes landfall in Japan, leaving at least 10 dead
Quote
Tokyo (CNN)Typhoon Hagibis made landfall Saturday night local time, as the country braces for hurricane-force winds that have killed at least 10 people and injured more than 140.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) said the typhoon made landfall just before 7 p.m. local time on the Izu Peninsula, southwest of Tokyo.  The agency called for the public to remain vigilant for rain and gusts of wind, after it issued an "Emergency Weather Warning (Level 5)."  The warning was issued for towns and cities in 12 prefectures including areas in Tochigi, Ibaragi, Fukushima, Miyagi, and NIigat.

"It is a level 5 situation; some sort of disaster may have already taken place," said JMA weather forecaster, Yasushi Kajiwara. "People are strongly advised to act to protect their lives right away."

Authorities have confirmed at least 10 deaths due to the storm so far. Around 140 people have been injured, and nine are missing, according to Japan's Fire Disaster and Management Agency. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/12/asia/japan-typhoon-hagibis-intl-hnk/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #628 on: October 13, 2019, 04:28:59 PM »
Things are warming up in West Africa once again:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #629 on: October 13, 2019, 04:57:22 PM »
Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813

I'm sorry but what are you pointing at in this link? This is the final report for 2018, 2019 is not over. Yet you use this link as proof this season is "normal".

But even then when I look within your link what I read is :

Quote
The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).


I'm not sure what is so "normal" about that.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #630 on: October 13, 2019, 07:19:46 PM »
Except that the new "normal" is not all that different from the old "normal." 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tropical-cyclones/201813

I'm sorry but what are you pointing at in this link? This is the final report for 2018, 2019 is not over. Yet you use this link as proof this season is "normal".

But even then when I look within your link what I read is :

Quote
The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).


I'm not sure what is so "normal" about that.

The season was slightly above average, well within one standard deviation.  2018 was 22nd highest, out of 69 years.  Over the past 14 years (including 2018, which currently stands at 118), 8 have been above the 70-year average, and 6 below.  One year was in the top 10, and one in the bottom 10.  How much more “normal” can you get?

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 885
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 253
  • Likes Given: 216
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #631 on: October 13, 2019, 08:12:40 PM »
Republican Hurricanes are obviously stronger than Democratic ones , esp. when it comes to landfall in the good ol' you ass of A . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #632 on: October 13, 2019, 08:51:49 PM »
For a second I thought about using bold, but I didn't. The problem is that there is too much to be bolded and it loses effectiveness. I'll try again.

Quote
The 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This is above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes. The number of named storms ranked as a tie for the tenth most on record. Both of the major hurricanes — Florence and Michael — impacted the U.S. mainland causing approximately 49 billion in damages between them and contributed to one of the costliest years in terms of weather and climate disasters for the nation. Although Florence weakened significantly before making landfall as a Category 1 storm, she brought unprecedented amounts of rainfall and subsequent flooding to parts of North and South Carolina. During the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storms Alberto and Gordon as well as Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall in the U.S.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of tropical cyclone activity also indicated an above-average season in the North Atlantic. The ACE index is used to calculate the intensity of the hurricane season and is a function of the wind speed and duration of each tropical cyclone. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1504
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 328
  • Likes Given: 55
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #633 on: October 13, 2019, 09:19:47 PM »
Major hurricanes, though, are below average. This is what I would expect to most increase, so I am a bit surprised.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 369
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #634 on: October 13, 2019, 09:39:47 PM »
There is many numbers about hurricane season. At the same time there is normal, below normal, above normal. We have a trend to worse but:
1. The trend should not make a show every year.
2. Unprecedented events should occur from time to time even in "stable" climate. 500-year events should occur 1 time in 5 years if our list contains 100 different ones.
3. This season has not finished.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1502
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #635 on: October 13, 2019, 10:41:24 PM »
I thought that while evidence for increased frequency of hurricanes might be questionable, there was more confidence in the trend of hurricanes to increased intensity, and even worse, slower moving hurricanes, e.g Harvey, Dorian.

I guess the Bahamas thinks one is more than enough for a very long time.   
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #636 on: October 14, 2019, 12:22:17 PM »
This morning's 5 day outlook for the North Atlantic:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

bluesky

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 169
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #637 on: October 14, 2019, 03:09:31 PM »
Heavy death toll in Japan for a country with such a high standard of catastroph risk awareness and preparedness
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191014_46/

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #638 on: October 14, 2019, 03:28:51 PM »
When we talk ice KkK focuses on area/extent, a lower-dimensional measure than volume that produces a very long term prediction. That way he can avoid the truth that the volume numbers reveal.

When we talk Hurricanes KkK focuses like a laser, on ACE, which only includes wind speed and duration. He must ignore the floods, the rapid intensification, the slower paths, and the increased destructiveness.

He must pretend that average = normal AND that ACE is the only average that matters. Lucky him for being able to do that. I guess I'm just jealous of his bliss.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #639 on: October 14, 2019, 03:39:54 PM »
When we talk ice KkK focuses on area/extent, a lower-dimensional measure than volume that produces a very long term prediction. That way he can avoid the truth that the volume numbers reveal.

When we talk Hurricanes KkK focuses like a laser, on ACE, which only includes wind speed and duration. He must ignore the floods, the rapid intensification, the slower paths, and the increased destructiveness.

He must pretend that average = normal AND that ACE is the only average that matters. Lucky him for being able to do that. I guess I'm just jealous of his bliss.

Sometimes it is important to focus on the most relevant numbers, rather than those which best exemplify ones own viewpoint.

P-maker

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #640 on: October 14, 2019, 04:35:04 PM »
Did not realize until now that KK is a cartoon figure, which stems back from the '60ies. Through more than 700 posts over the past year, this guy has tried to divert discussions from relevant and meaningful conversation.

I feel ashamed that this ludicrous character ( from my own time zone! ) has been allowed to spoil so many threads over the past year. This thread in particular is about more than 60 dead people in Japan this weekend,  hundreds of victims in the Bahamas during the past month and many more to come.

To rephrase a certain young activist: "How dare you?"

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #641 on: October 14, 2019, 05:56:38 PM »
Did not realize until now that KK is a cartoon figure, which stems back from the '60ies. Through more than 700 posts over the past year, this guy has tried to divert discussions from relevant and meaningful conversation.

I feel ashamed that this ludicrous character ( from my own time zone! ) has been allowed to spoil so many threads over the past year. This thread in particular is about more than 60 dead people in Japan this weekend,  hundreds of victims in the Bahamas during the past month and many more to come.

To rephrase a certain young activist: "How dare you?"

Glad to see that you recognize my character - also from my childhood time zone. 

How dare I?  You are the one diverting this thread from meaningful and relevant conversation.
Your post is typical of those who wish to influence scientific debate by incorporating an emotional element.  Sure, people feel for those who had to suffer through these diasterous events.  However, long term deaths have not increased due to hurricane activity.  Since 1880, the long term trend in Atlantic hurricane deaths is flat, i.e. no change.  On average, 760 hurricane fatalties have occurred annually.  That is the same today as it was 140 years ago, and that is total deaths!  Considering that the population has increased 5-fold since then, that is actually a significant drop in the death rate.  The deadliest years were 1900 (~12,000), 1998 (9,715), and 1930, 1963, and 1974 (~8,000 each).

The national hurricane center has calculated the accumulated cylcone energy (ACE) since 1950.  During that first decade (1950s) there were 69 total hurricanes.  This past decade (2010s), there have been 71.  NOAA has even stated that the trend in Atlantic hurricanes is "not significantly distinguishable from zero."  Sorry if I prefer solid scientific evidence over hyperbole.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4465
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 866
  • Likes Given: 1285
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #642 on: October 14, 2019, 06:10:14 PM »
Solid scientific evidence... ignoring the difference in advance warning and weather forecasting since 1880.
It's getting quite tiresome to witness your constant axe-grinding.

blumenkraft

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1270
  • Fans of Hans Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 576
  • Likes Given: 819
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #643 on: October 14, 2019, 06:20:40 PM »
Considering that the population has increased 5-fold since then, that is actually a significant drop in the death rate.

Actually, no! Considering there are weather forecasts and real buildings today, there are many other variables at play.

Quote
Sorry if I prefer solid scientific evidence over hyperbole.

You are cherrypicking. And i think you know that.
Refugees welcome

Klondike Kat

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 793
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #644 on: October 14, 2019, 07:24:19 PM »

Quote
Sorry if I prefer solid scientific evidence over hyperbole.

You are cherrypicking. And i think you know that.

Why, because I prefer to use the entire dataset, rather than selective data?  I think you have the cherrypicking backwards.

Lewis

  • New ice
  • Posts: 7
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #645 on: October 14, 2019, 10:24:15 PM »
You cant really compare hurricanes in our lifetime to hurricanes in the 1900s, unless it has to do with the strength and size of the hurricane itself. Since then we have had way better warnings that allow people to evacuate or take cover and we have seawalls that better protect us from hurricanes than before. Not to mention we have sturdier buildings.

KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 235
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #646 on: October 14, 2019, 11:04:44 PM »
Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
F. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
Quote
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups.    A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing.   These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Absence of  95% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.
The physics of tropical cyclones  suggest warmer seas will result in stronger storms .
Physics  also suggests we will see warm core storms migrate poleward as the oceans warm .
Both of these effects are already apparent in what reliable data we have.
Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be  to far along to halt the changes. 



 

Juan C. García

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1497
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 505
  • Likes Given: 504
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #647 on: October 14, 2019, 11:44:02 PM »
Absence of  XX% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.

Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be  to far along to halt the changes.
Great statements, that apply to AWG in general!!!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Niall Dollard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 489
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #648 on: October 15, 2019, 12:04:47 AM »

Absence of  95% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.


Agreed

Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
F. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming

My thoughts precisely. F that Summary  :P


Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #649 on: October 15, 2019, 12:35:42 AM »
Sometimes it is important to focus on the most relevant numbers, rather than those which best exemplify ones own viewpoint.

But that is exactly what you are doing. You focus on the one metric that supports your conclusion and ignore everything else.

 You remind me of John Christy. The cowardly sop is laser focused in mid-troposphere temperature ignoring surface warming, sea warming, ice losses, and atmospheric changes. Even then, the warming is catching up to him. His own dataset confirms warming is real but he can't see it. And this is an actual scientist, even if a dishonest one.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.