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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #650 on: October 15, 2019, 03:51:35 AM »
For the current thinking on how climate change is affecting cyclones see:

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

There isn't overwhelming evidence for anything yet, but the sorts of things that look suspicious are listed in the summary.

 "Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii)increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region. "

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #651 on: October 15, 2019, 06:56:44 AM »
Quote
My thoughts precisely. F that Summary
I know I am not a  scientist.
I am more interested in the future risks of climate change  than  arbitrary significant figures needed for publishing iron clad conclusions in a  scientific paper .
I know  from personal interaction that Kerry Emanuel , Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, accessible and identifiable  experts in tropic cyclones, are all convinced the risk of stronger storms are both physically possible and probably happening now.
They are acknowledged  experts KK is just some random on the interwebs .
KK has a long history of down playing potentials and disregarding risks on here.
KK is a nobody with no authority at all except in questions in  their own field which I understand is chemistry so can safely be ignored.
Kerry Emanuel https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Z6eI_ZYAAAAJ&hl=en
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
 



Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #652 on: October 15, 2019, 02:25:28 PM »
For the current thinking on how climate change is affecting cyclones see:

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1

There isn't overwhelming evidence for anything yet, but the sorts of things that look suspicious are listed in the summary.

 "Most authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests detectable anthropogenic contributions to:
i) the poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific;
ii) increased occurrence of extremely severe (post-monsoon season) cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea;
iii)increased global average intensity of the strongest TCs since early 1980s;
iv) increase in global proportion of TCs reaching Category 4 or 5 intensity in recent decades;
and v) increased frequency of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the Texas (U.S.) region. "

Very nice, and may I add a few more summaries:
i) The opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed poleward TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence.
ii) None of these observed tropical cyclone timeseries demonstrate clear evidence for a century-scale increase similar to that observed for global mean temperature.
iii-a)  U.S. landfalling hurricane counts (1878-2017) show a nominally negative decline, although
        the trend over 1900-2017 is not statistically significant.
iii-b) The timeseries of tropical cylcone landfalls for Japan since 1901 and global tropical cyclone
        and hurricane frequency since 1970 also show no strong evidence for trends.
iii)  In summary, no detectable anthropogenic influence has been identified to date in observed TC
      landfalling data, using Type I error avoidance criteria. From the viewpoint of Type II error
      avoidance, one of the above changes (decrease in severe landfalling TCs in eastern Australia)
      was rated as detectable, though not attributable to anthropogenic forcing.
iv)    A slight increasing trend in global intensity for the strongest TCs (at least hurricane
intensity) was identified (p-value of 0.1).
v)  we conclude that there is only low confidence in detection and attribution of any anthropogenic influence on historical TC intensity in any basin or globally.  However, ten of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a detectable increase in the global average intensity of the strongest (hurricane-strength) tropical clyclones since the early 1980s.
vi)  the evidence for detectable increases in U.S storm total inundation levels, apart from changes expected from sea level rise influence, is mixed.
vii)  In summary, the author team had low confidence that anthropogenic influence specifically on hurricane precipitation rates has been detected. Alternatively, all authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there has been a detectable long-term increase in occurrence of Hurricane Harvey-like extreme precipitation events in the eastern Texas region, and that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to this increase.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #653 on: October 15, 2019, 09:20:15 PM »
2,667 Bags of Radioactive Waste From Fukushima Nuke Disaster Washed Away by Typhoon Hagibis
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3795303

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As Typhoon Hagibis hammered Japan on Saturday (Oct. 12), thousands of bags containing radioactive waste have reportedly been carried into a local Fukushima stream by floodwaters, potentially having a devastating environmental impact.

According to Asahi Shimbun, a temporary storage facility containing some 2,667 bags stuffed with radioactive contaminants from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was unexpectedly inundated by floodwaters brought by Typhoon Hagibis. Torrential rain flooded the storage facility and released the bags into a stream 100 meters away.

Officials from Tamara City in Fukushima Prefecture said that each bag is approximately one cubic meter in size. Authorities were only able to recover six of the bags by 9 p.m. on Oct. 12, and it is uncertain how many remain on the loose while the possible environmental impact is being assessed.

... In Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, 37.1 inches of rain fell in 24 hours on Saturday, setting a record for that location, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, 27 inches fell in heavily forested Shizuoka Prefecture southwest of Tokyo. In higher elevations just west of downtown Tokyo, 23.6 inches of rain fell, which was also a record.
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oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #654 on: October 15, 2019, 11:54:55 PM »
Fukushima, the disaster that keeps on disastering.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #655 on: October 15, 2019, 11:59:27 PM »
^
It's the Japanese word for clusterfuck.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #656 on: October 16, 2019, 10:03:02 AM »
Seventeen.

Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #657 on: October 16, 2019, 12:34:13 PM »
At Nullschool seems that there are two depressions forming, not just one.
One on the Pacific and one on the Gulf of Mexico.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #658 on: October 16, 2019, 08:17:40 PM »
The Florida panhandle still has not recovered from Hurricane Michael.  :'(

Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/16/19, 12:12 PM
12z GFS The most aggressive yet in developing a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico. While it may not be your classic looking tropical cyclone, the impacts would still be the same: heavy rain, wind and some coastal inundation possible.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1184502441703858180
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #659 on: October 17, 2019, 09:14:46 PM »
Quote
Capital Weather Gang on Twitter: "Bomb cyclone slams New England with 90 mph winds and 4+ inches of rain. Power was knocked out to >500,000 as the storm blew through, winds will stay gusty all day from D.C. to Maine.
Details:
Washington Post article: https://t.co/SZnOLZKpNY
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1184841964270821376

Quote
Eric Fisher on Twitter: "Meteotsunami in Boston Harbor last night. Water spiked 4+ feet above normal tide. If this had hit during a high astro tide it would have set a new high water record
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1184809615202099200
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #660 on: October 17, 2019, 11:46:58 PM »
in Japan Time


https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/10/16/national/flooding-tama-river-tokyo-crisis-typhoon-hagibis/#.XajgDPZuLIU


"Flooding of Tama River put capital on the brink of crisis during Typhoon Hagibis
by Reiji Yoshida
Staff Writer

Oct 16, 2019



Tokyo faced crisis last Saturday, with water levels in the Tama River quickly climbing as heavy rains and winds from Typhoon Hagibis inundated the Kanto region on an unprecedented scale.
Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, saw a staggering 922.5 mm of rain that day alone — three times as much as the total for the month of October of an average year.


Levees all along the Tama, which stretches over 138 kilometers between Tokyo and Kanagawa Prefecture, were designed to withstand precipitation levels seen only once in every 200 years. But at the Ishihara observation station in the capital’s Chofu area, water levels had hit their highest-ever record of 6.24 meters by 11 p.m. on Saturday, far exceeding the 5.9 meters threshold the levees were built to withstand.
Since the levees were designed to have a safety margin of 1.5 meters, making their total height 7.4 meters at the Ishihara observation station, the riverbanks withstood the storm, but only barely.
Any failure of levees along the Tama River could have brought devastating flooding to areas of Tokyo and Kanagawa. For the first time ever, the city of Kawasaki issued an urgent warning, for 915,770 local residents to evacuate by 7 p.m. that night.
“Yes, the situation was very tense,” said Kenichi Ito, who heads the initial crisis management response team at Kawasaki Municipal Government.

In the age of climate change
That tense night for Tokyo and Kanagawa residents has underscored the risks Japan faces in the age of climate change, predicted to increase the number of powerful typhoons like Hagibis.
“This time, the (levees of the) Tama River withstood the typhoon well,” said Nobuyuki Tsuchiya, a senior civil engineering expert for the Tokyo-based Japan Riverfront Research Center.
But given the progression of climate change, stronger typhoons are more likely to strike Tokyo and the metropolitan area, which are “not in any way ready yet (to handle such storms),” he said.
In March 2018, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government released the results of a flood simulation based on a worst-case scenario involving a massive typhoon simultaneously causing heavy rains and tidal flooding.
The results were shocking: Waters would submerge about one-third of the 23 wards of central Tokyo, including 90 percent of Sumida, Katsushika and Edogawa wards, as well as parts of the Marunouchi, Shimbashi and Ginza downtown business districts — the heart of the nation’s capital.
The three wards in eastern Tokyo are particularly vulnerable because many of them are so-called “zero-meter zones,” meaning they are lower than sea level.
According to the metropolitan government, the simulation was based on a worst-case scenario that could happen only once every 1,000 to 5,000 years. But experts warn that powerful typhoons are likely to hit Tokyo more frequently than in the past as the climate continues to warm.
Last Saturday, the Arakawa River also rose to an alarming level, prompting the Edogawa Ward Office to issue an advisory for 432,000 local residents to evacuate."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #661 on: October 18, 2019, 02:34:59 AM »
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 10/17/19, 5:00 PM
Here are the 4 PM CDT Key Messages on Potential Tropical Cyclone #Sixteen. Latest information at: hurricanes.gov
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1184937203668942848
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #662 on: October 18, 2019, 08:43:59 PM »
We're expecting some gusty weather tonight and tomorrow from Tropical Storm Nestor [formerly PTC 16] (Tallahassee, Florida, USA) with less than 60 mm (or between 75 and 125 mm - depending on the NOAA source!) of rain during the next ~24 hours.  A tri-state Sacred Harp sing got cancelled on us as the county which owns the facility we were going to rent is concerned about power outages.  :(  [But more spinach lasagna, which I prepared last night, for us!  :o]

Edit:  the "60 mm" forecast has changed to over 100.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2019, 11:30:44 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #663 on: October 18, 2019, 09:01:51 PM »
* blumenkraft crossing fingers for Tor!
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #664 on: October 19, 2019, 02:38:01 AM »
Guess the rain is warm .. get out and enjoy it Tor .. b.c. :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #665 on: October 19, 2019, 01:18:11 PM »
What rain?
My rain gauge has 10 mm since yesterday (before this storm) and, except for my bare feet, I stayed dry going out to read the thing. (Still, over 50mm forecast over next 12 hours)
Warm?
It's 21 C outside - the 'coldest' since last spring! (I'll admit it is very pleasant outside right now, except that it's pitch black dark out there.)
Approaching tropical storm?
My approximation of wind at ground level right now, here, is 0 kts (converted to metric is 0 m/s).  Oh wait, I hear a breeze in the tree tops.  It's gone now.

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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #666 on: October 19, 2019, 02:01:33 PM »
See, finger-crossing obviously works.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #667 on: October 19, 2019, 02:56:53 PM »
See, finger-crossing obviously works.

Not everybody has crossed their fingers, and even if they have......
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #668 on: October 19, 2019, 04:46:21 PM »
Update...
rain gauge still indicates 10 mm of rain (I was 'walking' our 21 year old cat earlier (He loves to drink from the bird bath and walk around the house.), and there was this hyper-light rain that functionally evaporated off my skin instantly, so I guess there's been a trace of rain since 6 o'clock this morning (e.g., last 4 hours).  Forecast calls for about 25 mm in next two hours.  I'm wondering if we get 1. Just now a little rain shower has arrived.  Radar shows some 'yellow' overhead.  We'll get more than '1', but I rather doubt even 10 mm more.

It is definitely breezier now, well, intermittently breezier.

It is no longer pitch black dark outside  ::)

For some context, Tallahassee has had a very dry late summer that was broken earlier this week with 75 mm of rain in about 2 days, ending Wednesday.  More context: parts of the Florida Peninsula have received up to 100 mm of rain from Tropical Storm Nestor (now Post Tropical or Extra-tropical Nestor?) and at least one tornado.  Apparently its center has not yet come ashore.

Edit 3 and a half hours later:  my rain gauge has accumulated 25 mm total for this 'storm'.  There's a chance for some more 'rain' (drizzle).  A real pity our event was cancelled on us.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2019, 08:20:05 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #669 on: October 20, 2019, 07:55:44 PM »
The highest ACE for the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season is 46.1. Current value is 37.1.

blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #670 on: October 22, 2019, 02:04:55 PM »
Pacific Typhoons - August & September 2019

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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #671 on: October 22, 2019, 03:14:52 PM »
The highest ACE for the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season is 46.1. Current value is 37.1.

Yes, the North Indian Ocean has been well above average this year.  The North Atlantic has been above average also (by about 25%).  Conversely the entire Pacific basin has been below average for the year, resulting in a global ACE value below average.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #672 on: October 24, 2019, 12:10:26 AM »
Typhoon Hagibis: as of October 20, 2019, 135 levees have been reported breached, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), affecting 78 rivers. Of the ~540 river gauging stations on Honshu island, more than 85 exceeded their 100-year return period peak flows, with more than 100 exceeding their historical records. A wide swath of Honshu just outside the Tokyo metro area received between 250 mm and 500+ mm (10 and 20+ inches) of rain; the resort town of Hakone, where 939.5 mm (37 inches) of precipitation was recorded, broke the calendar-day rainfall record for all of Japan. Hakone’s rainfall represents the second-heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in Japan—25 inches (635 mm) of the 37 inches fell in just 12 hours. Many regions received between 30% and 40% of their yearly rainfall in just two days, with more than 100 stations breaking daily rainfall records at those locations.According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA), more than 56,000 buildings in Japan have been impacted, as of October 20, 2019.

Source : Air Worldwide a catastrophe management agency estimating catastrophe risk for the insurance industry. The agency estimated Hagibis insurance losses within USD 8 bn to USD 16 bn but the modelling excludes landslides (they were numerous) , tornado (there was one big in Chiba prefecture) , losses to infrastructure, business interruption (when companies have to stop their business due to direct or indirect impact , e.g. impact on supply chain, by the typhoon) , demand surge (increase of materials and building skills demands leading to shortage and higher price), loss adjustments expenses (associated with investigating and settling insurance claims), marine hull and marine cargoes (e.g. a cargo ship sunk during the storm in the Bay of Tokyo).
Adding to typhoon Faxai, this year Japanes insurance companies will experience major losses and insurance policies will in increase significantly early next year, as it is the second year in a row with major losses,  together with the reinsurance related to catastrophe risk in Japan. Of course economic losses will be significantly higher.

https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1
« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 12:27:01 AM by bluesky »

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #673 on: October 24, 2019, 12:25:25 AM »
Typhoon Hagibis is also mentioned on Science mag website with interesting news:

"The disaster has shown that the levees built up over decades along virtually all of Japan’s major rivers may not provide protection from the increasingly powerful storms expected to accompany climate change. Even while construction crews are working to plug the numerous breeches in river embankments, experts and government officials are debating how to prepare for future storms.
Last week, the land and infrastructure ministry announced it was forming a panel of experts to study the embankment failures and recommend remediation options. But experts are also calling for more attention to evacuation planning and long-term measures to encourage people to move off lowlands susceptible to flooding."


The article continues with more scientific content, notably about the likely that there was an atmospheric river linked to Hagibis while the typhoon was going through Honshu island, they say that atmospheric rivers are usually related to mid latitude low pressure and that could be the first time that that an atmospheric was related to a tropical cyclone.

"Instead of high winds, however, Hagibis brought unusually sustained rainfall, apparently thanks to an accompanying weather phenomenon called an atmospheric river. Still imperfectly understood, atmospheric rivers are narrow channels of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere that sometimes form in association with midlatitude cyclones. There’s still some debate about whether what was seen with Hagibis meets the definition of an atmospheric river, says Kazuhisa Tsuboki, a meteorologist at Nagoya University in Japan, who is himself convinced that it does. It might be the first time the phenomenon occurs together with a tropical cyclone. Observations by radar and Japan’s Himawari 8 weather satellite, along with simulations, show a wide band of rainfall extending from the tropics to the northeast rim of Hagibis as it landed on central Japan. Tsuboki, who presented his preliminary findings on Hagibis at a workshop on severe weather in Taipei on 15 October, estimates the atmospheric river was carrying twice the volume of water of the entire Amazon and “provided a large amount of water vapor to the northeastern part of Hagibis.”
“I do agree with Tsuboki’s assessment that atmospheric rivers can be an important ingredient in extreme rainfall events like what we saw with Hagabis,” says Robert Rogers, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Miami, Florida. "

The article continues with the "new normal"
"This may be the new normal. Hagibis is the fourth major rainfall disaster to afflict Japan in the past 14 months; Tokyo was hit twice in less than 2 months. In July 2018, a succession of heavy downpours in western Japan caused flooding and mudslides that claimed more than 220 lives. Three of the top 10 most damaging Japanese typhoons since 1950 have occurred since 2018, according to a review by the Weather Underground meteorology website.
Climate change is likely causing a detectable increase in the global average intensity of hurricane-strength tropical cyclones, which increasingly occur farther north than before, climate modeler Thomas Knutson of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey, and colleagues from around the world concluded in a review paper earlier this year."


and the difficulty to protect the large urban center:
£But urban populations are much harder to protect. Tsuchiya says there is no room for larger river embankments in the major cities. And significant portions of Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo have sunk below sea level, leaving them vulnerable not only to overflowing rivers, but also to storm surges. In September 2018, for instance, a surge from Typhoon Jebi flooded Kansai International Airport, built on a humanmade island in Osaka Bay, disrupting flights for more than 2 weeks and causing major damage. A storm-tossed 2600-ton tanker slammed into and damaged the sole bridge connecting the airport to the mainland, stranding 5000 people on the island for a night.
The bottom line, Tsuboki says: “The Japanese government should consider more seriously the future projection of climate change issued by scientists and take action.”"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/10/deadly-typhoon-forces-japan-face-its-vulnerability-increasingly-powerful-storms

Picture from the article with the possible atmospheric river:




kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #674 on: October 24, 2019, 02:26:44 PM »
Lets hope this spurs them on to more action against global warming.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #675 on: October 24, 2019, 03:14:55 PM »
Lets hope this spurs them on to more action against global warming.

Why not just fix the decades-old levees?

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #676 on: October 24, 2019, 03:19:19 PM »
Should we just fix the decades-old levees or should we pretend that stronger waters are expected?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #677 on: October 24, 2019, 03:29:13 PM »
Are you suggesting, "Let us pretend that climate change is real."?  "Just as a fanciful notion, let's humorously assume more intense rain events will be in our future.  On this basis, should the levees be stronger and taller or should we not build homes in flood plains any more or were the old levees just not maintained enough and can be repaired to original specifications?" [/sarc]
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #678 on: October 24, 2019, 03:38:51 PM »
Lets hope this spurs them on to more action against global warming.

Why not just fix the decades-old levees?
Of course, easy peasy. & do it again in the 2020's, the 2040's.........

BUT

"Tsuchiya says there is no room for larger river embankments in the major cities. And significant portions of Nagoya, Osaka, and Tokyo have sunk below sea level, leaving them vulnerable not only to overflowing rivers, but also to storm surges."

Good article in the LA Times about the California Coast - retreat or fight the ocean's rise.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/#nt=liF0promoSmall-3col1-7030col1
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kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #679 on: October 24, 2019, 03:55:50 PM »
Why not just fix the decades-old levees?

The problem was not that the levees were bad or in need of repairs. They were filled up by the rainfall beyond historical norms. We know we will get more of this rainfall since atmospheric water vapour content goes up with temperature which goes up with added greenhouse gasses.

So fixing the levees is not a solution.

Japan which is a rich country now has a really clear example why they cannot live in lalaland wrt the carbon budget.

YMMV  ;)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #680 on: October 24, 2019, 04:18:07 PM »
Are you suggesting, "Let us pretend that climate change is real."?  "Just as a fanciful notion, let's humorously assume more intense rain events will be in our future.  On this basis, should the levees be stronger and taller or should we not build homes in flood plains any more or were the old levees just not maintained enough and can be repaired to original specifications?" [/sarc]

Some in Japan have questioned the defenses against flooding from typhoons:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-questions-flooding-defenses-after-severe-weekend-typhoon-11571146223

Tadashi Yamada, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Chuo University in Tokyo, said that given the nation’s geography, flood control has been a challenge for governments as long as they have existed in Japan. After several deadly typhoons in the early post-World War II period killed more than 1,000 people, a national program to build up river banks began in the 1960s.

However, Prof. Yamada said cities like Tokyo got first priority. “When you go to rural areas, you see really thin river banks, which look really weak,” he said.

In the 1990s, corruption scandals involving construction companies briefly drove the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. The backlash against big construction projects, plus concerns about paving over verdant river valleys with concrete barriers, led to a slowdown in flood prevention, Prof. Yamada said.

He and others said it was hard to draw a balance between preserving the beauty of the countryside, holding down costs and protecting against disasters that may hit a particular area only once in a century.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #681 on: October 24, 2019, 04:37:37 PM »
A few months ago, during the record floods that delayed the planting season,  I saw a video where they interview an Army corps of engineering official in charge of the levees of some flooded place. When asked a similar question that I asked KkK, was he rebuilding at 20th century standards or was he preparing for the future, the coward said, "that is not my expertise". The guy designing the levees is so afraid of even talking about climate change that he is ignoring climate change in his calculation. People will die because of his cowardice induced dereliction of duty.

That KkK prefers to ignore the question is nothing. That decision-makers are also ignoring this question is the makes everything worse.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #682 on: October 24, 2019, 04:38:20 PM »
Quote
... protecting against disasters that may hit a particular area only once in a century.
This comment is based on '20th century thinking' with a steady-state climate.  In many places, '100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps
Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #683 on: October 24, 2019, 05:00:11 PM »
Medicane is forming in the Eastern Mediterranean. SST is about 26.5°C.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #684 on: October 24, 2019, 09:47:29 PM »
It seems that some of the comments on my post in relation to the Sciencemag website article, forgot to read the post just before, e.g. the statistics of the number of river gauges and rainfall stations breaking their record, and the incredibly large area of Honshu receiving 35 to 40 per cent or yearly rainfall in 48 hours or less. This is an exceptional flood related typhoon with no historic equivalent. Catastrophe modellers like Air Worldwide usually have access to very large data regarding historic events, they know what they are talking about, insurance and reinsurance industry rely on them.
Additionally, Japan is the most well prepared country to face this kind of disaster...
So no, this is not simply a story of levees not maintained or built properly, maybe it played some part here and there but probably a marginal part when you face  this kind of incredible event. Hagibis event is in the same type of outlier / exceptional event as Harvey and Florence, although different, but it is very likely that incoming research paper on this typhoon will place it far at the extreme end of the tail of the exceedance probability curve, should we still be a the 20th century climatology but we are not...
Regarding  Tokyo and other large low lying area, the same typhoon with a landfall slightly more into Tokyo bay and at high tide could probably have had devastating effect due to higher and devastating  storm surge blocking any river flow into the sea... Remember the shutting down of Kansai airport /Osaka after Typhoon Jebi last year....

Typhoon Hagibis: as of October 20, 2019, 135 levees have been reported breached, according to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), affecting 78 rivers. Of the ~540 river gauging stations on Honshu island, more than 85 exceeded their 100-year return period peak flows, with more than 100 exceeding their historical records. A wide swath of Honshu just outside the Tokyo metro area received between 250 mm and 500+ mm (10 and 20+ inches) of rain; the resort town of Hakone, where 939.5 mm (37 inches) of precipitation was recorded, broke the calendar-day rainfall record for all of Japan. Hakone’s rainfall represents the second-heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in Japan—25 inches (635 mm) of the 37 inches fell in just 12 hours. Many regions received between 30% and 40% of their yearly rainfall in just two days, with more than 100 stations breaking daily rainfall records at those locations.

https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #685 on: October 25, 2019, 12:25:43 AM »
To claim this has “no historical equivalent” is to deny history.  Typhoon Vera in 1959 resulted in greater flooding, causing more damage and loss of life.  That event was the impetus to the vast expanse of levees.  Japan is more prone to catastrophic flooding due to its sharply rising terrain and shallow river beds.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #686 on: October 25, 2019, 12:46:03 AM »
To claim this has “no historical equivalent” is to deny history.  Typhoon Vera in 1959 resulted in greater flooding, causing more damage and loss of life.  That event was the impetus to the vast expanse of levees.  Japan is more prone to catastrophic flooding due to its sharply rising terrain and shallow river beds.

Again Air Worldwide is a reference in the catastrophe modelling, along with two other modelling agencies this is a top three world leader in catastrophe modelling that the insurance and reinsurance industry rely on. When Air Worldwide says "Please note that the level of rainfall and resultant flooding associated with Typhoon Hagibis is unprecedented, thus there is no analogous event in Japan’s recent history from which to draw insights on the cost associated with damage remediation and claiming behavior."
https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1
It means that Air Worlwide has already made a scientific comparison with typhoon Vera, the reason why typhoon Vera lead to significantly higher loss of lives is simply because the warning devices are now signifcantly more developped and sophisticated than in 1959, when mobile phone did not exist and there was therefore no way to receive weather warning alert on your mobile phone on time as it happened for tens of millions of Japanese before and during typhoon Hagibis, let alone the weather forecasting devices which are far more sophisticated and allow to advise the population about the grade 1 to 5 level of warning. Japan has one of the most sophisticated catastrophe warning system in the world. By the way among the 80 or more people who died it was mostly eldderly  retired people some of them did not received the warning as they did not own a mobile phone or they did not follow the evacuation warning, Others were in areas were levees breaches generated extremely rapid flood water level limiting evacuation capacity, Finally the network of levees was far less extent and thorough in 1959.
 The fact that Japan is more prone to flooding does not explain the exceptionality of typhoon Hagibis, this is denying a scientific fact, Many River gauge and meteorological rain stations that experienced record level of river flow or rain already existed during typhoon Vera

The exceptionality of typhoon Hagibis will likely be confirmed by in depth research paper in the following wich will certainly be posted here on the Artic forum...


« Last Edit: October 25, 2019, 01:19:29 AM by bluesky »

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #687 on: October 25, 2019, 02:02:43 AM »
Of course the much greater loss of life could be related to Vera being a stronger typhoon, with a barometric pressure of 895 compared to Hagibis at 915.  Hagibis has been downgraded to a category 2 storm at landfall, with winds of 155 mph, while Vera made landfall near full strength.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #688 on: October 25, 2019, 02:16:51 AM »
This is tiresome, bluesky talks about a scientifically exceptional rain event, which you continue to ignore with your ripostes. Will you mention ACE next?

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #689 on: October 25, 2019, 07:12:52 AM »
Typhoon Ida in 1958 produced up to 750 mm of rainfall.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #690 on: October 25, 2019, 08:03:03 AM »
Typhoon Ida in 1958 produced up to 750 mm of rainfall.


Hagibis: " the resort town of Hakone, where 939.5 mm (37 inches) of precipitation was recorded, broke the calendar-day rainfall record for all of Japan"

already in one of my previous post

https://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=932&tp=72&c=1

Thank you Oren this is effectively slghtly tiresome...


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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #691 on: October 25, 2019, 10:44:25 AM »
Thank you bluesky for your interesting information and perseverance.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #692 on: October 25, 2019, 11:30:56 AM »
Tropical Cyclone Kyarr unusually heading for Arabia.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #693 on: October 25, 2019, 02:27:31 PM »
Typhoon Ida in 1958 produced up to 750 mm of rainfall.

Yes.  Another example that this event was not unprecedented.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #694 on: October 25, 2019, 02:30:37 PM »
Right, breaking the old record by 190mm is somehow... precedented? That makes no sense by definition. What exactly is your deal here?

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #695 on: October 25, 2019, 03:49:06 PM »
20-25% is quite significant, though even 5% would be unprecedented. These rare events becomes stronger by much every time because they don't occur too often. It's hard to be prepared.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #696 on: October 25, 2019, 05:56:18 PM »
And the IPCC says......

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
This Summary for Policymakers was formally approved at the Second Joint Session
of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC and accepted by the 51th Session of the IPCC,
Principality of Monaco, 24th September 2019
Summary for Policymakers
Quote
........
A3.6 Anthropogenic climate change has increased observed precipitation (medium confidence), winds (low confidence), and extreme sea level events (high confidence) associated with some tropical cyclones, which has increased intensity of multiple extreme events and associated cascading impacts (high confidence). Anthropogenic climate change may have contributed to a poleward migration of maximum tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific in recent decades related to anthropogenically-forced tropical expansion (low confidence). There is emerging evidence for an increase in annual global proportion of Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones in recent decades (low confidence). ........
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Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #697 on: October 25, 2019, 08:16:10 PM »
Stalled' hurricanes like Dorian could become more common
In a warming climate, hurricanes could linger longer, causing extreme rainfall and wind damage.
By Peter Sinclair
Monday, October 21, 2019
Quote
A CNN meteorologist characterizes Dorian with these words: “The thing just wobbles and wobbles and wobbles and just doesn’t go anywhere.”

“Perhaps the term ‘catastrophic’ may fall short for the amount of destruction created over the Bahamas” as a result of the “slow down and stall,” says Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza of the University of Michigan.

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli citing not only Dorian but also the 2017 Category 4 Hurricane Harvey that pummeled parts of Texas, said researchers recently are pointing to evidence that hurricanes “may be slowing down” in their movements from place to place. Berardelli also explains at one point how the “damage potential” from a 150-mile per hour hurricane is 250 times – not simply two times – that from a 75-mile-per-hour hurricane. “The multiplier is incredible.”

Masters points to three Category 4 storms land-falling in the U.S. in just two straight years, with only 28 previously having done so going back to 1851.
Yale Climate Connections, text & video included:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/stalled-hurricanes-like-dorian-could-become-more-common/

Only video:
« Last Edit: October 25, 2019, 08:44:04 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #698 on: October 25, 2019, 11:06:33 PM »
cyclone Kyarr has just intensified into a "severe cyclone" according to the Indian Meteorological Department and is likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclone  during next 6 hours  and further intensify into and extremely severe cyclone during the next 24 hours and move NNW towards Oman

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en


1.tropical cyclone scale in North Indian Ocean
2. Kyarr forecast
3. Kyarr forecast track and intensity

« Last Edit: October 25, 2019, 11:19:12 PM by bluesky »

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #699 on: October 26, 2019, 01:58:41 AM »
Stalled' hurricanes like Dorian could become more common
In a warming climate, hurricanes could linger longer, causing extreme rainfall and wind damage.
By Peter Sinclair
Monday, October 21, 2019
Quote
A CNN meteorologist characterizes Dorian with these words: “The thing just wobbles and wobbles and wobbles and just doesn’t go anywhere.”

“Perhaps the term ‘catastrophic’ may fall short for the amount of destruction created over the Bahamas” as a result of the “slow down and stall,” says Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza of the University of Michigan.

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli citing not only Dorian but also the 2017 Category 4 Hurricane Harvey that pummeled parts of Texas, said researchers recently are pointing to evidence that hurricanes “may be slowing down” in their movements from place to place. Berardelli also explains at one point how the “damage potential” from a 150-mile per hour hurricane is 250 times – not simply two times – that from a 75-mile-per-hour hurricane. “The multiplier is incredible.”

Masters points to three Category 4 storms land-falling in the U.S. in just two straight years, with only 28 previously having done so going back to 1851.
Yale Climate Connections, text & video included:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/stalled-hurricanes-like-dorian-could-become-more-common/

Only video:


Yes, there is evidence that tropical cyclones are slowing down.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insideclimatenews.org/news/03092019/hurricane-dorian-climate-change-stall-record-wind-speed-rainfall-intensity-global-warming-bahamas%3famp