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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #700 on: October 26, 2019, 09:41:10 PM »
Kyarr is intensifying.
Quote
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 26, 2019:

Location: 16.8°N 68.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #701 on: October 27, 2019, 07:27:07 AM »
Super cyclonic storm Kyarr this morning. More images.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #702 on: October 27, 2019, 08:32:41 PM »
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 10/27/19, 10:54 AM
#Pablo is now a #hurricane. It became a hurricane at 18.3°W - the farthest east an Atlantic named storm has first become a hurricane on record - breaking the old record set by Vince in 2005 (18.9°W).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1188468933969334272
Satellite gif at the link.
< It’s well north of 40°! I feel like that is incredibly rare. Such a peculiar season.
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kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #703 on: October 28, 2019, 12:23:49 AM »
Interesting.

this has a picture of where it formed:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-10-27-hurricane-pablo-weird-atlantic-formation-location

From that link.

Pablo became a hurricane despite sea-surface temperatures being much cooler than what is typically required for a hurricane to form. That negative development factor was offset by a favorable atmospheric environment.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1188472238858747904

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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #704 on: October 28, 2019, 12:43:11 AM »
Kyarr is the first super cyclone in Arabian sea since Gonu in 2007.
Latest path forecast on
www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/ftrack.png
« Last Edit: October 28, 2019, 03:17:10 PM by bluesky »

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #705 on: October 28, 2019, 01:56:34 AM »
For those like me who are unfamiliar with the N Indian Ocean terminology, a Super Cyclonic Storm is Cat5 or high Cat4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Intensity_classifications

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #706 on: October 28, 2019, 07:57:50 AM »
Current North Indian Ocean season is already the most active.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #707 on: October 29, 2019, 11:54:49 PM »
Why Are Big Storms Bringing So Much More Rain? Warming, Yes, But Also Winds
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-big-storms.html

For three hurricane seasons in a row, storms with record-breaking rainfall have caused catastrophic flooding in the southern United States: Harvey in 2017, Florence in 2018 and Imelda in 2019.

A new analysis by Princeton researchers explains why this trend is likely to continue with global warming. Both the higher moisture content of warmer air and storms' increasing wind speeds conspire to produce wetter storms, the researchers reported in a study published on October 18 in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science.

Models project that by the end of the century hurricane rainfall rates will increase up to twice as fast as would be expected due to increasing moisture from rising sea surface temperatures alone. The Princeton team wanted to understand what other forces might contribute to the wetter storms.

... The researchers suspected that wind might play a role.

... "We found that not only did a storm's holding capacity for water vapor increase because of global warming," said Liu, "but also that the storms were getting stronger and contributing to higher rainfall rates."

Vecchi noted that several studies have shown the current probability of a storm like Hurricane Harvey is twice as high because of global warming. "This study makes a statement about the future," he said. "But we're having this convergence, where our observations are starting to show the increased rainfall that our models have been predicting for quite a while, and now we also have a clear theoretical understanding as to why it should be happening."



Open Access: Maofeng Liu et al, Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019)
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #708 on: October 30, 2019, 02:29:06 AM »
The intense rainfall begs the question of whether warmer waters are leading to enhanced total rainfall or  just locally higher totals due to slower traveling storms.

Mozi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #709 on: October 30, 2019, 03:16:20 AM »
No, the article seems to answer that quite explicitly.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #710 on: October 30, 2019, 06:39:17 AM »
Activity in the North Indian is close to near-normal Atlantic season.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #711 on: October 30, 2019, 02:05:18 PM »
No, the article seems to answer that quite explicitly.

As opposed to the following research, which states, "the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0074-8

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #712 on: November 04, 2019, 08:20:28 AM »
Insane season continues in the North Indian Ocean. Maha becomes the third extremely severe cyclonic storm (cat 3-4) of the season. ACE surpassed 70. Remnants of Matmo entered the Andaman Sea.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #713 on: November 05, 2019, 12:05:00 AM »
"As expected, Tropical cyclone Maha continued strengthening since yesterday and has been upgraded into a Category 3 cyclone today at 12 UTC (November 4). Maha is packing maximum sustained winds of 105 knots / 120 mph / 195 km/h with a central pressure around 960 mbar. It is likely very near its peak strength as is soon coming into less favorable sea surface conditions and also the wind shear will increase after it turns sharp east tonight which usually results in the weakening trend of tropical systems. Maha continues towards landfall in India – expected on Thursday, Nov 7th as a Tropical Storm force."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/category-3-cyclone-maha-heads-towards-india-mk/

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #714 on: November 05, 2019, 12:10:03 AM »
"Very favorable western Pacific sea surface conditions are allowing a now Category 3 typhoon Halong to remain in its rapid intensification trend today, clearly visible on the latest satellite imagery and automatic analysis. Halong is packing winds of 105 knots / 120 mph / 195 km/h with a central pressure below 950 mbar. Although it will stay over open waters of the western Pacific and away from any land areas, it is very impressive to observe."
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/typhoon-halong-will-reach-category4-mk/

Latest JMA forecast on typhoon Halong:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/


grixm

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #715 on: November 05, 2019, 07:20:57 PM »
Ridiculous intensification of Halong today. While JTWC only has it at 140 knots in the last advisory, AdjT and CI# numbers has reached almost 8.0, suggesting 170 knots is possible.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1191740646022881281

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #716 on: November 05, 2019, 11:55:36 PM »
897 mb / 155 kt. Halong looks impressive.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #717 on: November 07, 2019, 04:50:35 PM »
Climate Signals | 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season breaks named storm days record
Quote
Tropical Cyclone "Maha" formed on October 30. It strengthened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 3 and into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 4.

On November 3, Maha reached Category 3+ hurricane equivalent, the third of the season to date, tying the year with 1999 for the most North Indian Ocean major hurricane through November 3 since records began in 1972, according to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

As of November 4, the 2019 North Indian Ocean has already generated 28 named storm days, shattering the old record of 21 days through November 4 set in 1996, Klotzbach said.

The season has so far had 5 Severe Cyclonic Storms, a record high, and 2 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms. It had 1 Super Cyclonic Storm, also a record high, but tied with 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999 and 2007.
https://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/2019-north-indian-ocean-cyclone-season-breaks-named-storm-days-record
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #718 on: November 07, 2019, 07:32:45 PM »
Yes, the North Indian has had its most active tropical season on record.  The North Atlantic has been somewhat above average also.  Those combiend with below average activity in the Pacific basin has resulted in a near average 2019 tropical season. 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #719 on: November 07, 2019, 09:44:34 PM »
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #720 on: November 07, 2019, 11:47:05 PM »
talking about intensification, as a reminder, this article published last February in Nature Communication about a highly unusual increase in intensification rate of tropical storm in Atlantic bassin versus natural variability:

Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
Kieran T. Bhatia  February 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z


Abstract
"Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale."


gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #721 on: November 08, 2019, 12:02:13 AM »
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.
The coast from Odisha to Bengal is just a series of deltas - extremely low-lying for a good many miles inland and so extremely vulnerable, and already suffering from severe coastal erosion. For those in the USA think - Louisiana Boot (what's left of it).

There is going to be some damage.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #722 on: November 08, 2019, 12:36:54 AM »
latest track, it seems that Bulbul will make landfall on the West part of very low lying Bengladesh coast, likely to bear the highest brunt of the storm surge, depending on the tide, as on the right side of the cyclone (were the wind will be the strongest) the curving close to the coast could mean prolonged wind damage and storm surge. Fortunately Bengladesh has improved its warning system and sheltering during the past 15 years.
If I remember well the west part of Bangladesh coast is partly protected by a mangrove forest (hopefully it has not been too much deforested?) , a good natural barrier for attenuating storm surge impact... and the cyclone should have weakened somewhat (but intensity forecast could change)

« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 12:43:02 AM by bluesky »

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #723 on: November 09, 2019, 01:12:21 AM »
Latest Bulbul forecast, intensity near landfall upgraded to very severe cyclone , storm surge for Western coast of Bangladesh of 1.5 to 2.5 meters extending up to 2 to 3km inland. (Source: Indian meteorological department)


blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #724 on: November 09, 2019, 08:03:07 AM »
OMG  :-[
Refugees welcome

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #725 on: November 09, 2019, 05:05:00 PM »
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Matmo) Warning #17
Issued at 09/1500Z

Not a very strong cyclone, as regards wind, but hitting such a vulnerable area already degrading very fast.. Most homes there are made from dried mud bricks.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/sundarbans-mangrove-forest-in-bangladesh-india-threatened-by-rising-waters-illegal-logging/
This vanishing forest protects the coasts—and lives—of two countries
Rising waters and illicit logging are killing the trees in the Sundarbans, the natural wall that protects the India-Bangladesh coast.

Quote
Lost Protection
The Sundarbans spans nearly 4,000 square miles of India and Bangladesh along the Bay of Bengal. The world’s largest continuous mangrove forest, it’s home to a wide variety of species. For the 7.5 million people who live in the region, the forest is a natural barrier against tides and cyclones. But as people cut the trees and rising seas bring saline waters, the forest and the land itself are shrinking. More than a million coastal residents have already migrated north.

https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/sundarbans-climate-change-tigers-india/
Quote
The sea level has risen by an average of 3 centimeters a year over the past two decades in the Sundarbans, the vast mangrove delta at the mouth of the Bay of Bengal, leading to one of the fastest rates of coastal erosion in the world.

Residents of the dozens of islands in the Indian part of the Sundarbans have seen their homes swallowed up by the sea and their farmland poisoned by saltwater, forcing many to relocate.

The fast-encroaching sea, driven by climate change, has also eaten away at the hunting grounds of the Sundarbans’ famous Bengal tigers, pushing them to target the villagers’ livestock — and, increasingly, the villagers themselves.

At the same time, villagers unable to farm and experiencing dwindling fish catches are venturing deeper into tiger territory to look for crabs and collect honey, putting them at even greater risk of being attacked by the big cats.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 05:17:12 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #726 on: November 11, 2019, 12:55:04 AM »
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center

“Low pressure rapidly intensified to the south of Greenland yesterday and overnight (November 9 into November 10), becoming the 8th #hurricane force wind event across the N Atlantic basin in the current OPC cold season (2019 Jun to 2020 May). The first image contains a satellite view of the low pressure via GOES East air mass RGB. In the second image, overnight ASCAT passes provided 'sea truth' to the ongoing forecast with a large area of hurricane force winds southwest of the low center (the brightest reds). The third image is from 12Z today(November 10), and shows the significant wave heights that have developed in response to the winds, with max seas to 16 meters (52.5 feet). #SatWind #MarineWx”
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #727 on: November 11, 2019, 10:12:14 PM »
Hurricanes Have Become Bigger and More Destructive for the U.S., Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.

A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American southern and east coasts.
The study is now published in PNAS.

... Instead of comparing single hurricanes and the damage they would cause today, he and his colleagues have assessed how big an area could be viewed as an "area of total destruction," meaning how large an area a storm would have to destroy completely in order to account for the financial loss. Simultaneously, this makes comparison between rural areas and more densely populated areas like cities easier, as the unit of calculation is now the same: the size of the "area of total destruction."



Aslak Grinsted el al., "Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018," PNAS (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #728 on: November 12, 2019, 12:27:30 AM »
It seems that significantly larger area of destruction in the 2000es and 2010ies is not really due to the positive switch of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation since the mid 1990ies, contrary to the fairly common belief even in some research papers.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #729 on: November 13, 2019, 12:09:14 AM »
Hurricanes Have Become Bigger and More Destructive for the U.S., Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.

Aslak Grinsted el al., "Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018," PNAS (2019).


the Insurance Link Security blog artemis.bm has written a long article about the Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg  (Niels Bohr Institute) research paper on increasing frequency of more destructive hurricane published recently in PNAS. A few more insight, (of course the most important is the frequency of the most destructive hurricane has increased by 330% in a century),  the article was edited by the highly respected hurricane scientist expert   Kerry A. Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, while the research paper received the backing of  Jim Kossin (NOAA), who was not involved in the research, as commenting on this study, “Their result is consistent with expected changes in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes and is also consistent with the increased frequency of very slow-moving storms that make landfall in the U.S.”

The artemis.bm blog is widely read in the re insurance and insurance industry, which will help to rapidly spread the result of this key research paper among the catastrophe modellers and the modelling agencies on which rely the insurance industry, and maybe less relying on the mantra of  of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in positive mode since the mid 1990ies supposedly justifying (for some not all) the higher  activity of intense hurricane since then.

https://www.artemis.bm/news/study-finds-hurricanes-more-destructive-most-damaging-more-frequent/

The chart below shows the frequency of events destroying a certain amount of land-mass, the area of total destruction (ATD). The white represents the most severe hurricanes and shows a 3.3x increase in frequency (from the artemis article , and likely from A. Grinsted et al research paper)



vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #730 on: November 13, 2019, 12:22:10 AM »
Thanks bluesky.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late