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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #700 on: October 26, 2019, 09:41:10 PM »
Kyarr is intensifying.
Quote
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 26, 2019:

Location: 16.8°N 68.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #701 on: October 27, 2019, 07:27:07 AM »
Super cyclonic storm Kyarr this morning. More images.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #702 on: October 27, 2019, 08:32:41 PM »
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 10/27/19, 10:54 AM
#Pablo is now a #hurricane. It became a hurricane at 18.3°W - the farthest east an Atlantic named storm has first become a hurricane on record - breaking the old record set by Vince in 2005 (18.9°W).
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1188468933969334272
Satellite gif at the link.
< It’s well north of 40°! I feel like that is incredibly rare. Such a peculiar season.
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kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #703 on: October 28, 2019, 12:23:49 AM »
Interesting.

this has a picture of where it formed:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-10-27-hurricane-pablo-weird-atlantic-formation-location

From that link.

Pablo became a hurricane despite sea-surface temperatures being much cooler than what is typically required for a hurricane to form. That negative development factor was offset by a favorable atmospheric environment.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1188472238858747904

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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #704 on: October 28, 2019, 12:43:11 AM »
Kyarr is the first super cyclone in Arabian sea since Gonu in 2007.
Latest path forecast on
www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/ftrack.png
« Last Edit: October 28, 2019, 03:17:10 PM by bluesky »

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #705 on: October 28, 2019, 01:56:34 AM »
For those like me who are unfamiliar with the N Indian Ocean terminology, a Super Cyclonic Storm is Cat5 or high Cat4.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Intensity_classifications

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #706 on: October 28, 2019, 07:57:50 AM »
Current North Indian Ocean season is already the most active.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #707 on: October 29, 2019, 11:54:49 PM »
Why Are Big Storms Bringing So Much More Rain? Warming, Yes, But Also Winds
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-big-storms.html

For three hurricane seasons in a row, storms with record-breaking rainfall have caused catastrophic flooding in the southern United States: Harvey in 2017, Florence in 2018 and Imelda in 2019.

A new analysis by Princeton researchers explains why this trend is likely to continue with global warming. Both the higher moisture content of warmer air and storms' increasing wind speeds conspire to produce wetter storms, the researchers reported in a study published on October 18 in the Nature Partner Journal Climate and Atmospheric Science.

Models project that by the end of the century hurricane rainfall rates will increase up to twice as fast as would be expected due to increasing moisture from rising sea surface temperatures alone. The Princeton team wanted to understand what other forces might contribute to the wetter storms.

... The researchers suspected that wind might play a role.

... "We found that not only did a storm's holding capacity for water vapor increase because of global warming," said Liu, "but also that the storms were getting stronger and contributing to higher rainfall rates."

Vecchi noted that several studies have shown the current probability of a storm like Hurricane Harvey is twice as high because of global warming. "This study makes a statement about the future," he said. "But we're having this convergence, where our observations are starting to show the increased rainfall that our models have been predicting for quite a while, and now we also have a clear theoretical understanding as to why it should be happening."



Open Access: Maofeng Liu et al, Causes of large projected increases in hurricane precipitation rates with global warming, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2019)
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #708 on: October 30, 2019, 02:29:06 AM »
The intense rainfall begs the question of whether warmer waters are leading to enhanced total rainfall or  just locally higher totals due to slower traveling storms.

Mozi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #709 on: October 30, 2019, 03:16:20 AM »
No, the article seems to answer that quite explicitly.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #710 on: October 30, 2019, 06:39:17 AM »
Activity in the North Indian is close to near-normal Atlantic season.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #711 on: October 30, 2019, 02:05:18 PM »
No, the article seems to answer that quite explicitly.

As opposed to the following research, which states, "the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0074-8

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #712 on: November 04, 2019, 08:20:28 AM »
Insane season continues in the North Indian Ocean. Maha becomes the third extremely severe cyclonic storm (cat 3-4) of the season. ACE surpassed 70. Remnants of Matmo entered the Andaman Sea.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #713 on: November 05, 2019, 12:05:00 AM »
"As expected, Tropical cyclone Maha continued strengthening since yesterday and has been upgraded into a Category 3 cyclone today at 12 UTC (November 4). Maha is packing maximum sustained winds of 105 knots / 120 mph / 195 km/h with a central pressure around 960 mbar. It is likely very near its peak strength as is soon coming into less favorable sea surface conditions and also the wind shear will increase after it turns sharp east tonight which usually results in the weakening trend of tropical systems. Maha continues towards landfall in India – expected on Thursday, Nov 7th as a Tropical Storm force."

https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/category-3-cyclone-maha-heads-towards-india-mk/

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #714 on: November 05, 2019, 12:10:03 AM »
"Very favorable western Pacific sea surface conditions are allowing a now Category 3 typhoon Halong to remain in its rapid intensification trend today, clearly visible on the latest satellite imagery and automatic analysis. Halong is packing winds of 105 knots / 120 mph / 195 km/h with a central pressure below 950 mbar. Although it will stay over open waters of the western Pacific and away from any land areas, it is very impressive to observe."
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/typhoon-halong-will-reach-category4-mk/

Latest JMA forecast on typhoon Halong:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/


grixm

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #715 on: November 05, 2019, 07:20:57 PM »
Ridiculous intensification of Halong today. While JTWC only has it at 140 knots in the last advisory, AdjT and CI# numbers has reached almost 8.0, suggesting 170 knots is possible.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1191740646022881281

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #716 on: November 05, 2019, 11:55:36 PM »
897 mb / 155 kt. Halong looks impressive.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #717 on: November 07, 2019, 04:50:35 PM »
Climate Signals | 2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season breaks named storm days record
Quote
Tropical Cyclone "Maha" formed on October 30. It strengthened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 3 and into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 4.

On November 3, Maha reached Category 3+ hurricane equivalent, the third of the season to date, tying the year with 1999 for the most North Indian Ocean major hurricane through November 3 since records began in 1972, according to meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

As of November 4, the 2019 North Indian Ocean has already generated 28 named storm days, shattering the old record of 21 days through November 4 set in 1996, Klotzbach said.

The season has so far had 5 Severe Cyclonic Storms, a record high, and 2 Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms. It had 1 Super Cyclonic Storm, also a record high, but tied with 1989, 1990, 1991, 1999 and 2007.
https://www.climatesignals.org/headlines/2019-north-indian-ocean-cyclone-season-breaks-named-storm-days-record
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #718 on: November 07, 2019, 07:32:45 PM »
Yes, the North Indian has had its most active tropical season on record.  The North Atlantic has been somewhat above average also.  Those combiend with below average activity in the Pacific basin has resulted in a near average 2019 tropical season. 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #719 on: November 07, 2019, 09:44:34 PM »
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #720 on: November 07, 2019, 11:47:05 PM »
talking about intensification, as a reminder, this article published last February in Nature Communication about a highly unusual increase in intensification rate of tropical storm in Atlantic bassin versus natural variability:

Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates
Kieran T. Bhatia  February 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z


Abstract
"Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale."


gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #721 on: November 08, 2019, 12:02:13 AM »
The North Indian season usually have a peak in November. Bulbul became the sixth Severe Cyclonic Storm.
The coast from Odisha to Bengal is just a series of deltas - extremely low-lying for a good many miles inland and so extremely vulnerable, and already suffering from severe coastal erosion. For those in the USA think - Louisiana Boot (what's left of it).

There is going to be some damage.
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #722 on: November 08, 2019, 12:36:54 AM »
latest track, it seems that Bulbul will make landfall on the West part of very low lying Bengladesh coast, likely to bear the highest brunt of the storm surge, depending on the tide, as on the right side of the cyclone (were the wind will be the strongest) the curving close to the coast could mean prolonged wind damage and storm surge. Fortunately Bengladesh has improved its warning system and sheltering during the past 15 years.
If I remember well the west part of Bangladesh coast is partly protected by a mangrove forest (hopefully it has not been too much deforested?) , a good natural barrier for attenuating storm surge impact... and the cyclone should have weakened somewhat (but intensity forecast could change)

« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 12:43:02 AM by bluesky »

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #723 on: November 09, 2019, 01:12:21 AM »
Latest Bulbul forecast, intensity near landfall upgraded to very severe cyclone , storm surge for Western coast of Bangladesh of 1.5 to 2.5 meters extending up to 2 to 3km inland. (Source: Indian meteorological department)


blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #724 on: November 09, 2019, 08:03:07 AM »
OMG  :-[

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #725 on: November 09, 2019, 05:05:00 PM »
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Matmo) Warning #17
Issued at 09/1500Z

Not a very strong cyclone, as regards wind, but hitting such a vulnerable area already degrading very fast.. Most homes there are made from dried mud bricks.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/sundarbans-mangrove-forest-in-bangladesh-india-threatened-by-rising-waters-illegal-logging/
This vanishing forest protects the coasts—and lives—of two countries
Rising waters and illicit logging are killing the trees in the Sundarbans, the natural wall that protects the India-Bangladesh coast.

Quote
Lost Protection
The Sundarbans spans nearly 4,000 square miles of India and Bangladesh along the Bay of Bengal. The world’s largest continuous mangrove forest, it’s home to a wide variety of species. For the 7.5 million people who live in the region, the forest is a natural barrier against tides and cyclones. But as people cut the trees and rising seas bring saline waters, the forest and the land itself are shrinking. More than a million coastal residents have already migrated north.

https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/sundarbans-climate-change-tigers-india/
Quote
The sea level has risen by an average of 3 centimeters a year over the past two decades in the Sundarbans, the vast mangrove delta at the mouth of the Bay of Bengal, leading to one of the fastest rates of coastal erosion in the world.

Residents of the dozens of islands in the Indian part of the Sundarbans have seen their homes swallowed up by the sea and their farmland poisoned by saltwater, forcing many to relocate.

The fast-encroaching sea, driven by climate change, has also eaten away at the hunting grounds of the Sundarbans’ famous Bengal tigers, pushing them to target the villagers’ livestock — and, increasingly, the villagers themselves.

At the same time, villagers unable to farm and experiencing dwindling fish catches are venturing deeper into tiger territory to look for crabs and collect honey, putting them at even greater risk of being attacked by the big cats.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 05:17:12 PM by gerontocrat »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #726 on: November 11, 2019, 12:55:04 AM »
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center

“Low pressure rapidly intensified to the south of Greenland yesterday and overnight (November 9 into November 10), becoming the 8th #hurricane force wind event across the N Atlantic basin in the current OPC cold season (2019 Jun to 2020 May). The first image contains a satellite view of the low pressure via GOES East air mass RGB. In the second image, overnight ASCAT passes provided 'sea truth' to the ongoing forecast with a large area of hurricane force winds southwest of the low center (the brightest reds). The third image is from 12Z today(November 10), and shows the significant wave heights that have developed in response to the winds, with max seas to 16 meters (52.5 feet). #SatWind #MarineWx”
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #727 on: November 11, 2019, 10:12:14 PM »
Hurricanes Have Become Bigger and More Destructive for the U.S., Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.

A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American southern and east coasts.
The study is now published in PNAS.

... Instead of comparing single hurricanes and the damage they would cause today, he and his colleagues have assessed how big an area could be viewed as an "area of total destruction," meaning how large an area a storm would have to destroy completely in order to account for the financial loss. Simultaneously, this makes comparison between rural areas and more densely populated areas like cities easier, as the unit of calculation is now the same: the size of the "area of total destruction."



Aslak Grinsted el al., "Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018," PNAS (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #728 on: November 12, 2019, 12:27:30 AM »
It seems that significantly larger area of destruction in the 2000es and 2010ies is not really due to the positive switch of the Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation since the mid 1990ies, contrary to the fairly common belief even in some research papers.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #729 on: November 13, 2019, 12:09:14 AM »
Hurricanes Have Become Bigger and More Destructive for the U.S., Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.

Aslak Grinsted el al., "Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018," PNAS (2019).


the Insurance Link Security blog artemis.bm has written a long article about the Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg  (Niels Bohr Institute) research paper on increasing frequency of more destructive hurricane published recently in PNAS. A few more insight, (of course the most important is the frequency of the most destructive hurricane has increased by 330% in a century),  the article was edited by the highly respected hurricane scientist expert   Kerry A. Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, while the research paper received the backing of  Jim Kossin (NOAA), who was not involved in the research, as commenting on this study, “Their result is consistent with expected changes in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes and is also consistent with the increased frequency of very slow-moving storms that make landfall in the U.S.”

The artemis.bm blog is widely read in the re insurance and insurance industry, which will help to rapidly spread the result of this key research paper among the catastrophe modellers and the modelling agencies on which rely the insurance industry, and maybe less relying on the mantra of  of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in positive mode since the mid 1990ies supposedly justifying (for some not all) the higher  activity of intense hurricane since then.

https://www.artemis.bm/news/study-finds-hurricanes-more-destructive-most-damaging-more-frequent/

The chart below shows the frequency of events destroying a certain amount of land-mass, the area of total destruction (ATD). The white represents the most severe hurricanes and shows a 3.3x increase in frequency (from the artemis article , and likely from A. Grinsted et al research paper)



vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #730 on: November 13, 2019, 12:22:10 AM »
Thanks bluesky.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #731 on: November 16, 2019, 07:15:38 PM »
Hurricane Dorian caused $3.4 billion damages to the Bahamas
Quote
The amount, which puts the Bahamas on a difficult path to reconstruction, is equivalent to one-fourth of the country’s gross domestic product. That’s equivalent to the United States losing the combined economies of Florida, California and Texas.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/article237435814.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #732 on: November 29, 2019, 06:19:15 PM »
The Philippines is bracing for floods and landslides from Typhoon Kammuri, potentially hitting the area where the Southeast Asian Games are being held
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1200236198838583296

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-29/philippines-braces-for-storm-that-may-drench-sea-games-hosting
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #733 on: November 30, 2019, 06:16:30 AM »
Some tracks cross the equator.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #734 on: November 30, 2019, 02:31:02 PM »
The Philippines is bracing for floods and landslides from Typhoon Kammuri, potentially hitting the area where the Southeast Asian Games are being held
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1200236198838583296

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-29/philippines-braces-for-storm-that-may-drench-sea-games-hosting
A very large number of people in Metro Manila live on very low ground. Floods are frequent.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #735 on: December 03, 2019, 05:06:07 PM »
Another two storms appeared in the Arabian Sea.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #736 on: December 07, 2019, 05:08:34 PM »
NOAA Satellites: "The #NOAA20 satellite captured this image of 3 tropical #cyclones churning over the #IndianOcean on Dec. 5, 2019. #TropicalCycloneAmbali set a record for the most rapid intensification in 24 hours in the Southern Hemisphere since 1980. Learn more: https://t.co/v1hFRyFaYx #Ambali”
https://mobile.twitter.com/noaasatellites/status/1203051651688321026
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #737 on: December 07, 2019, 06:01:28 PM »
Looks like Cyclone Belna will do some damage on Madagascar
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #738 on: December 13, 2019, 10:34:34 PM »
serious damage from the typhoon Kammuri (Tyson) in the Philipines

"The damage in the Philippines has been significant though, with the latest report from the government’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) highlighting the significant structural effects of the typhoon.
As of December 12th, the NDRRMC reports that more than 1.9 million people were affected by the passage of typhoon Kammuri, after which almost 84,000 have required some kind of temporary shelter due to damage to their homes.
A stunning 55,229 homes have been completely destroyed by Kammuri, with another 405,407 partially damaged, according to the NDRRMC data.
In addition, 2,193 schools are reported as partially damaged by the typhoon, as well as 34 health facilities, 185 other public structures and 42 other structures.
So, in total 55,235 properties and structures have been reported as totally destroyed, with 463,091 properties and structures destroyed or damaged by the impacts of typhoon Kammuri.

In addition there was widespread impacts to infrastructure as well, including roads and bridges, power transmission lines with more than US $100 million of damage to infrastructure and agriculture reported."

https://www.artemis.bm/news/typhoon-kammuri-tisoy-causes-significant-damage-but-philippines-cat-bond-expected-safe/



vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #739 on: December 17, 2019, 06:17:32 PM »
Applying Physics Principle to Meteorology Yields Grim Prediction on Hurricane Destruction in an Era of Global Warming
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-physics-principle-meteorology-yields-grim.html

Global warming could lead to hurricanes even more powerful than meteorologists currently forecast. That warning came from a physicist researching the behavior of tropical cyclones who noticed that one of the principles of physics— phase transition—did not appear in the scientific literature of meteorology.

In a paper published recently in the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Edward Wolf, professor emeritus at the NYU Tandon School of Engineering, demonstrated that the destructive power of historical tropical hurricanes increased linearly and rapidly as water temperature increased—in contrast to most meteorological calculations, which lead to more optimistic outcomes.

"This approach indicates the destructive power of Atlantic hurricanes off Africa could reach three times their current level if water temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius—well within the range that scientists predict is likely by the year 2100," Wolf said. "The same calculations would apply to any tropical basin on Earth.

The journal paper showed how Wolf's calculations aligned with what has become accepted science: Hurricanes require a surface water temperature above 26.5 degrees Celsius (79.7 degrees Fahrenheit). And every plot of Emanuel's graph of his Power Dissipation Index (PDI) values-versus-Ocean Temperature substantiated Wolf's initial suspicion that phase transitions—such as the transition from water to vapor—indicate just how much kinetic energy is released as the water that was turned to vapor by a hurricane then cools and falls to Earth as liquid.



E. L. Wolf. Critical behavior of tropical cyclones, Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2019)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #740 on: December 17, 2019, 06:38:16 PM »
How close does "three times" destructive power come to the hypothesis of a "hypercane"?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #741 on: December 17, 2019, 07:11:52 PM »
A memory resurfaced so I tried to find it and found it from, of all places, Forbes.com.
"We're finding long-term changes in hurricane behavior that are heightening risk along the U.S. East Coast."

And it is not often you find even more alarming words in the science article itself...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44252-w#Sec8
Quote
Thus the protective barrier of the AMV to the East Coast hurricane intensification may be largely eroded by the GHG effect. Coupled with the robust warming of the ocean surface temperature in the future, it is likely that the US East Coast will experience unprecedented hurricane intensification in the future, causing even greater threats to the coastal community.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/06/07/more-stalled-hurricanes-and-less-wind-shear-bad-news-for-u-s-coasts/#222b175d219b
Quote
A third study published by Kossin in Nature, one of the most selective and rigorous scientific journals in the world, found that the natural climate barrier to hurricane intensification along the U.S. coast is being degraded by greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The study abstract points out that vertical wind shear (VWS) and sea surface temperatures (SST) "form a protective barrier along the United States during periods of heightened basin-wide hurricane activity." It is well-known that warm SST is favorable for hurricane intensification, on average, and oceans generally are warming in response to climate change. Scientific understanding of how VWS will change due to climate warming has lagged.

Typically, vertical wind shear serves to mitigate hurricane development as the storms move out the tropics and toward the U.S. East Coast (graphic below). Kossin and colleagues from Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory recently published a paper in Scientific Reports that used climate models to show that rising greenhouse gases (atmospheric carbon dioxide is currently at 413.5 ppm) will weaken vertical wind shear along the East Coast. Some of the simulations suggests that this could happen within the next couple of decades. Weaker wind shear, coupled with warmer SSTs, would be favorable to intensification if a hurricane moves into the region. Unfortunately, separate studies by scientists like Kerry Emanuel and colleagues have found that hurricanes are intensifying, on average, further away from the tropics and at latitudes closer to U.S. coastal cities.

Kossin sums up the threat in the email, "We're finding long-term changes in hurricane behavior that are heightening risk along the U.S. East Coast."
« Last Edit: December 17, 2019, 07:36:20 PM by gerontocrat »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #742 on: December 17, 2019, 07:27:44 PM »
^ I remember posting it back in May

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1833.msg200946.html#msg200946

... Ting and Kossin, along with Lamont researchers Suzana Camargo and Cuihua Li, used model simulations to examine the effects of climate change on hurricanes in the United States. The group found that these hurricanes will be affected in two different ways. As earlier studies have shown, rising sea surface temperatures will lead to an increase in hurricane intensity. But this study was the first to find that rising anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will weaken the vertical wind shear along the East Coast which will, in turn, enable further intensification of hurricanes that make landfall in this region.

"Once the natural protection is eroded by greenhouse gas warming, we may experience unprecedented hurricane intensification along the East Coast that can lead to stronger landfalling storms and higher storm surges in the future," Ting explains. "This is on top of the stronger tropical cyclone strength expected from the warmer sea surface temperature that we are already aware of. Home owners and policy makers have to take this into account when planning for coastal development and protections."

Although climate change is typically a slow process, the models point to the possibility of these anthropogenic effects emerging quickly. One of the models with a larger number of simulations indicated that these effects could start to be seen around the year 2040. A timeline like that only gives us about 20 years to try to change course by taking actions to reduce climate change and, at the very least, prepare for more extreme weather events.

Open Access: Mingfang Ting et al. Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast, Nature Scientific Reports (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #743 on: December 27, 2019, 08:45:20 AM »
Fiji preparing   for  Tropical Cyclone SARAI Category 2 tonight.
Not a well organised storm and will be centered offshore.
http://www.met.gov.fj/
 
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Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #744 on: December 27, 2019, 11:38:56 AM »
Quote
Although climate change is typically a slow process, the models point to the possibility of these anthropogenic effects emerging quickly. One of the models with a larger number of simulations indicated that these effects could start to be seen around the year 2040


When they say 2040, they are assuming full arctic cover and no super el niños or other weird ocean or atmospheric phenomena. They also look at only a few metrics, like wind speed and changes in behavior like rapid intensification are ignored. This paper looks at data up to 2015.

 The process they describe may have already started and it will be a heck of a lot faster than implied on CMIP5. The problem of lag in science must be solved. The magic of statistics happens when we have enough numbers, but in climate science, by the time we get enough numbers, it may be too late.

Sadly this paper, even when it underestimates future change, will be looked at as alarmist by most people in power.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #745 on: December 31, 2019, 02:33:03 PM »
Hurricanes, Climate Change, and the Decline of the Maya
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/hurricanes-climate-change-and-the-decline-of-the-maya/

A team of paleoclimatologists have used sediment cores taken from the Yucatan's Laguna Muyil’s sinkhole to reconstruct a 2,000-year record of hurricanes that have passed within 30 kilometers of the site. Richard Sullivan of Texas A&M presented the team's preliminary findings this month at AGU’s Fall Meeting. The reconstruction shows a clear link between warmer periods and an increased frequency of intense hurricanes.

https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm19/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/598560

... The Muyil sediment core reconstruction indicates that storm activity increased during the the North Atlantic’s Medieval Warm Period, and decreased during the period of slight global cooling called the Little Ice Age. These periods align with the movement of something called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of warm air that circles the equator and oscillates between the northern and southern hemispheres. We have a 13,000-year-record of the ITCZ, and when it moves north, the sediment record shows a clear uptick in storm activity. It’s moving north right now.

... The Maya Terminal Classic Phase that occurred 800-1,000 years ago came at the tail end of a prolonged drying period. This period of drought was likely brought about, in part, by deforestation driven by intense agriculture in the region. Researchers consider it a major culprit in the end of the Mayan Classic Phase, the period during which Mayan civilization is often regarded as having reached its peak.

Sullivan’s paleohurricane reconstruction adds to our understanding of the relationship between this period of Mayan history and climate change. It appears that when the rains returned, they came back with a vengeance. Increased storm activity identified in the cores coincides with the end of the Terminal Classic Period and decline of Chichen Itza.

Quote
... “You have a culture that's already sort of reeling from long-term drought and then getting hammered again,” ... “It doesn't stretch the imagination to envision a population recovering from drought being further stressed by frequent storms damaging crops or supply lines.”


Huracan, Bolon Tzacab, U Ku’x Kaj, the One-Legged God, Source of the Sky, Water and Fire
https://yucatanliving.com/culture/this-is-the-story-of-the-huracan
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 01:30:22 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late