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Sigmetnow

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Drought 2019
« on: February 21, 2019, 08:15:59 PM »
“We’ve decoupled growth from water.  We use the same amount of water that we did 20 years ago, but have added 400,000 more people.” In 2000, some 80 percent of Phoenix had lush green lawns; now only 14 percent does. The city has done this by charging more for water in the summer. Per capita usage has declined 30 percent over the last 20 years. “That’s a huge culture change.”

In Era of Drought, Phoenix, Arizona Prepares for a Future Without Colorado River Water
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-phoenix-is-preparing-for-a-future-without-colorado-river-water
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 01:12:20 PM by Sigmetnow »
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rboyd

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2019, 09:25:30 PM »
Next on the list should be those very green golf courses around Phoenix.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2019, 10:05:31 PM »
What do you expect when you build in a desert?

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2019, 02:28:58 PM »
Millions Hit in Manila's 'Worst' Water Shortage   
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-millions-manila-worst-shortage.html

Manila has been hit by its worst water shortage in years

Taps are dry from four to 20 hours per day in the homes of about half of the Philippine capital's roughly 12 million people due to rolling outages driven by a dearth of rain and inadequate infrastructure.

The shortages started hitting late last week, with some areas in eastern Manila seeing the supplies of water into their homes being completely cut off.

... The disruption could last until July when monsoon rains are typically in full swing and would replenish regional reservoirs, one of which is at a two-decade low.

.. The government has admitted that the problem of growing demand for water has long been forecast but they failed to address it due to delays in projects that would expand capacity.

-------------------------------

Philippine Water Shortage Forces Cuts for 6.8 Million People
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/philippine-water-shortage-forces-cuts-for-68-million-people/2019/03/14/e3734b34-46bb-11e9-94ab-d2dda3c0df52_story.html

... Water supplies will be cut for at least six hours a day for more than a million households until the rainy season fills dams and reservoirs in May or June, a spokesman for Manila Water Co. Inc., Jeric Sevilla, said Thursday.

The company, one of two government-authorized water suppliers in the densely populated Manila metropolis and nearby Rizal province, said a spike in demand and reduced water levels in a dam and smaller reservoirs in the sweltering summer are the culprit, exacerbated by El Nino weather conditions.

A company advisory said residents in more than a dozen cities and towns would lose their water supply from six to 21 hours a day through the summer months and appealed for public understanding.

... “El Nino is not really the culprit,” Sevilla said. “It’s actually supply and demand.”

-------------------------------

The US Is Only Decades Away From Widespread Water Shortages, Scientists Warn
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-is-only-decades-away-from-widespread-water-shortages-scientists-warn

Much of the United States could be gripped by significant water shortages in just five decades' time, according to predictions made in a new study.

From the year 2071 on, scientists say the combined effects of climate change and population increases are projected to present "serious challenges" in close to half of the 204 watersheds covering the contiguous US.

Open Access: Brown, Thomas, et.al., Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 05:03:53 PM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2019, 09:21:27 PM »
Quote
MacGyver (@MacGyver_BE) 4/25/19, 3:29 PM
It's April and we're already instructed to conserve water. In Belgium. Crazy.
Water levels haven't recovered from the record drought last year.

https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1121496587983781888
The fact we're even instructed to conserve water is rare. But now in April...

Quote
Johan Andersson (@johaan) 4/25/19, 4:18 PM
Same here in Sweden. We haven´t had rain for 3-4 weeks which is highly unusual and worrying.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2019, 12:13:09 AM »
Interesting.  Here in the U.S., drought is the lowest since measurements began.

Sleepy

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2019, 09:04:10 AM »
Thought everyone was aware of the drought last year in Europe and Sweden. Unprecedented in some of our southern parts with huge impacts on farming. Some farmers had to slaugther animals as well.

April has been much the same so far, rain forecasts dry out, the same today. Just a tiny bit last night and nothing today. Adding a recent reply, (in response to planting trees) it's a cherry pick but it certainly is dry here. Groundwater levels are falling and with last year in fresh memory, I do hope we get some rain soon. A recent study showed that our crop production would be cut in half with further droughts.
Start here? Crappy photo taken yesterday passing a huge crop field.

Hmm, on a second thought that would be a bad idea. We can only feed half of our population here, the rest is imported.


Adding daily precipitation for April below. No need to make it larger, there's not much to see...
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Pmt111500

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2019, 09:37:06 AM »
Thought everyone was aware of the drought last year in Europe and Sweden. Unprecedented in some of our southern parts with huge impacts on farming. Some farmers had to slaugther animals as well.

April has been much the same so far, rain forecasts dry out, the same today. Just a tiny bit last night and nothing today. Adding a recent reply, (in response to planting trees) it's a cherry pick but it certainly is dry here. Groundwater levels are falling and with last year in fresh memory, I do hope we get some rain soon. A recent study showed that our crop production would be cut in half with further droughts.

<><> Clip <><>

Adding daily precipitation for April below. No need to make it larger, there's not much to see...
As happened here on the other side of Baltic. Too hot later in summer 2018 so some livestock had to be slaughtered prematurely.
This is looking like a pattern emerging. If it goes on for several more years it might force the farmers to wait for rains to sow the fields. This could of course be changed with the general change in the Arctic. I'd rather have cold fronts from Kara and Barents to hit moist warm airs from eastern Atlantic or Black Sea than the heat of last July/beginning of August. Seriously considered letting the grass on yard die. Most here agree, but they also agree on combustion engine powered long-range mobility enhancers, so I don't know what the people here want. Mainly hunkering down with these anomalies
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Sleepy

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 10:12:12 AM »
Warmer wetter winters and warmer drier summers, might very well be a pattern Pmt.
Reminded me of this one:
https://www.clim-past.net/10/1925/2014/cp-10-1925-2014.pdf
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El Cid

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 10:35:10 AM »
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)

Pmt111500

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2019, 10:46:28 AM »
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...
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Sleepy

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2019, 10:58:08 AM »
Walpurgis night here in two days, let's see how that goes first. A night of song and fire...
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Alexander555

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2019, 01:22:07 PM »
And Mumbai is not even 1 of the 21 big indian cities that will run out of groundwater next year. https://m.mid-day.com/articles/mumbais-water-stock-lowest-in-three-years/20755190

El Cid

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2019, 01:45:07 PM »
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

Actually, I am from C.Europe and as temperatures have risen 1,5-2 C in the past 30-40 yrs, people have started to grow figs, kiwis, persimmons with success. With some winter protection these are now totally viable here on warmer S-facing hillsides.

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2019, 02:47:04 PM »
Yes, I also quoted that article on some other threads. I believe that it is a likely outcome for N.Europe: much warmer all year, and little rain during summer. Mediterranization...

(hint: grow figs :)
Thank you Cid for the hint, I do have some aloes on the windowsill, but I don't think they'll manage the winters yet outside. Considering  recommending peach-trees and central europe pear cultivars for people with better local conditions than mine...

Actually, I am from C.Europe and as temperatures have risen 1,5-2 C in the past 30-40 yrs, people have started to grow figs, kiwis, persimmons with success. With some winter protection these are now totally viable here on warmer S-facing hillsides.

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

The warmer winters, especially when combined with longer frost-free days, will allow for the expansion of growing these and other foods.

Pmt111500

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2019, 04:33:13 PM »
<cut>

As for pears, we have some old cultivars that grew well in the Middle Ages (Little Ice Age), and I am sure those should be OK up north as well. Peaches: If your winter temps don't go below 20-22C, they survive quite well. The real problems come during springtime, because these flower quite early and late frosts can and do kill the fruits/flowers time and again even here...same for apricots.

Thanks again, we do have at least one cultivar of pear that can manage on sheltered locations in the south. Peaches and apricots might then start to manage on the Baltic islands sheltered. People with big porches are growing some in pots, taking them in for the coldest months. Cherries are nowadays spreading northwards on the mainland. But this is OT. Could use some rain here.
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Archimid

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2019, 04:48:28 PM »
 If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?
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Pmt111500

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2019, 10:44:09 AM »
If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?
That's a good question, last year was one of the first years of poorer yield by drought in Finland, but I've not heard of other special troubles for the northernmost cultivars.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2019, 02:36:31 PM »
If the environment is more favorable for some southern products, is the environment more unfavorable for the crops that have been optimized for centuries?

Can the fellows down south growth the same crops with the same effectiveness?
That's a good question, last year was one of the first years of poorer yield by drought in Finland, but I've not heard of other special troubles for the northernmost cultivars.

Currently, the answer is yes.  Southern areas have been less affected by climate change than the northern ones.  As long as summer temperatures and precipitation remain in the same general range, this will be the case.  Any significant changes may affect the effectiveness.

El Cid

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2019, 03:34:05 PM »
I think the major question is the distribution of the rains. Temperature growth in itself does not mean problems, on the contrary, cold places becoming warmer can produce more. we also know, that global warming brings more rains.

However, the distribution of those (future) rains is not very well understood as I see it (models do not replicate neither European nor N.African precipitation patterns even for the Holocene Optimum!). Problems will arise when precipitation patterns change, eg. instead of previously evenly distributed rains a dry/wet season climate arrives. It is essential to prepare for that first by saving water and second by increasing irrigation infrastructure. Even so, disruptions will emerge for sure as change is always hard.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2019, 03:59:51 PM »
I think the major question is the distribution of the rains. Temperature growth in itself does not mean problems, on the contrary, cold places becoming warmer can produce more. we also know, that global warming brings more rains.

However, the distribution of those (future) rains is not very well understood as I see it (models do not replicate neither European nor N.African precipitation patterns even for the Holocene Optimum!). Problems will arise when precipitation patterns change, eg. instead of previously evenly distributed rains a dry/wet season climate arrives. It is essential to prepare for that first by saving water and second by increasing irrigation infrastructure. Even so, disruptions will emerge for sure as change is always hard.

I would agree that the rains are a bigger issue than temperature.  Temperature is really only an issue when it exceeds either a maximum or minimum growth limit. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2019, 06:05:26 PM »
I've seen several maps showing the future boding ill for the Mediterranean Sea area, temperature-wise.  I cannot imagine this will be anything but disastrous for agriculture in the region.  I do not recall 'timing' of these changes, however, a quick internet search reveals this 2019 paper, although the abstract appears to focus on how absolutely horrible things will get under a RCP8.5 scenario.
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