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Alexander555

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #50 on: July 11, 2019, 08:25:02 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #51 on: July 12, 2019, 06:15:04 PM »
Water Express Delivers Emergency Supplies to Drought-hit Indian City
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-emergency-drought-hit-indian-city.html



A special 50-wagon train carrying 2.5 million litres of water arrived in the Indian city of Chennai Friday, as the southern hub reels under one of its worst shortages in decades.

Four special trains a day have been called up to bring water to Chennai—India's sixth most populous city—from Vellore, some 80 miles (125 kilometres) away, to help battle the drought.

The first consignment will be taken to a water treatment centre, and then distributed in trucks to different parts of the metropolis on Saturday.

Chennai has seen only a fraction of the rain it usually receives during June and July.

The bustling capital of Tamil Nadu state normally requires at least 825 million litres of water a day, but authorities are currently only able to supply 60 percent of that.

With temperatures regularly hitting 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit), reservoirs have run dry and other water sources are dwindling further each day.


... State government has dismissed reports that water is not reaching everyone in the city. "The reports that every district does not have water is not true. We are working to supply water to every district ... don't make water political," Tamil Nadu's chief minister, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, said during a press conference last month.

Even as the 50 wagons rolled into Chennai on Friday, the process of unloading the water was delayed as officials waited for state ministers to reach the location to officially welcome the train.

--------------------------------

Life in a City Without Water: Anxious, Exhausting and Sweaty
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/world/asia/india-water-crisis.html

CHENNAI, India — When the water’s gone, you bathe in what drips out of the air-conditioner.

... Today, Mr. Jeevantham, 60, runs his groundwater pump seven hours a day to satisfy the needs of his own family of four and their tenants. It slurps water from 80 feet under the ground, slowly draining from the lake.

“The lake[Velachery] is God’s gift,” he marveled. But for how much longer? This, he didn't know. “Maybe five years,” he said, laughing uncomfortably.

... Near the city center, the groundwater is nearly gone. Dev Anand, 30, still lives in his childhood home in the Anna Nagar area. For much of his life, his family relied on what city water came through the pipes. When that wasn’t enough, they drew water from under the ground. This summer, that dried up. For a few weeks, his neighbor shared his water. Then his groundwater dried up too. ... No one knows when their bore wells will be exhausted. People are still drilling more wells all over the city, draining the aquifer further and faster.

... And then there’s the air-conditioner. Everyone collects its drip. One day, when Rushyant Baskar woke up after working the night shift and turned on his water pump, a dry wheezing sound was all he heard. The buckets were empty, except the one under the air-conditioner. It was the only water he had.

At that point, we thought: We must get out of Chennai,” said Mr. Baskar, 28


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #52 on: July 13, 2019, 07:12:01 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #53 on: July 18, 2019, 06:24:18 PM »
California's Future Weather Will Alternate Between Drought and Atmospheric Rivers, Study Says
https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Atmospheric-river-drought-Calif-weather-Scripps-14083031.php
https://www.wired.com/story/atmospheric-rivers-get-an-intensity-scale-like-hurricanes/


Coefficient of variation (i.e. variance normalized by the mean) of de-trended* annual total precipitation during historical (a) and future (b) time periods in the Real-5 LOCA-downscaled GCM ensemble average, and the difference (c).

The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, looked at climate scenarios from 16 global climate models focusing on western North America. All 16 predicted that most of the heavy precipitation that the West receives in the future will come from the vast streams of moisture in the sky known as atmospheric rivers. A single atmospheric river typically carries twice the amount of water flowing in the entire Amazon River.

"As Mediterranean climate regions around the world are becoming more subtropical, the dry season is expanding. California is no exception," Scripps climate scientist and study lead author Alexander Gershunov said. "What is exceptional about California is that the heavy precipitation is projected to become more extreme."

Here's what scientists expect to happen:

—Overall precipitation will be about the same or slightly more over the long term. But it will progressively become more dramatic — more will fall in extreme bursts, increasing the possibility of flooding. Daily precipitation will become less frequent as there will be fewer storms not related to atmospheric rivers (ARs).

—California will not be able to rely on mountain snowpack to portion out water from melting snow. Because atmospheric river storms are warmer, snow levels will be higher. Driving rain will wash away snowpack at lower elevations. As the Sierra Nevada acts as a barrier to easterly moving storms, "California's topography is ideally aligned to extract increasingly heavy precipitation from strengthening ARs," the study said.

—Due to the unpredictability of snowmelt, resource managers may have to overhaul the state's water storage procedures. So far this century, there have only been four wet years — 2005, 2011, 2017 and 2019. In 2015, amid California's five-year drought, the Sierra Nevada received only 5 percent of its normal snow accumulation.

—Periods of drought will become more numerous and lengthy, but California is not projected to dry as severely as other Mediterranean climate regions around the world.

—The state will experience a feast-or-famine rainfall scenario — drought vacillating with flooding.

Open Access: Alexander Gershunov,et.al., Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers, Scientific Reports volume 9, Article number: 9944 (2019)

---------------------------------

Never Mind Those Earthquakes: Atmospheric Rivers Could Put Sacramento 30 Feet Under Water
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/environment/article232426112.html


A research team led by Sasha Gershunov at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego published a new study on atmospheric rivers in Nature Scientific Reports this week that places atmospheric rivers under scrutiny as the driving cause behind California’s increasingly extreme, infrequent bouts of precipitation.

Gershunov’s team used 16 global climate models to analyze the expanding role of atmospheric rivers as contributors to precipitation in California. The results show that atmospheric rivers are getting stronger and wetter, and catastrophic events like the Great Flood of 1862 could happen again.

“In 1862, Sacramento was underwater,” Gershunov said. “It was most certainly due to an atmospheric river.”

In 1861, Northern California became the focal point for two consecutive atmospheric rivers that surged into the Sierra Nevada, melting snow at disastrous rates. By 1862, a catastrophic flood swept through the Central Valley, augmented by two rainstorms, creating an inland sea that was 300 miles long and 60 miles wide.

It rained for 45 days straight, according to a film produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. Thousands of cattle drowned, and vineyards and homes were washed away. The state went bankrupt. The American River near Auburn rose 35 feet, submerging towns.

No place was more affected than Sacramento, however.

Situated at the confluence of the American and Sacramento rivers, the city went under 30 feet of water.

Leland Stanford, the governor-elect, had to row a boat to his inauguration in January 1862.

“Nearly every house and farm over this immense region is gone. America has never seen such desolation by a flood,” wrote botanist William Brewer of the California Division of Mines and Geology in 1862.

According to a team led by scientist Dale Cox at the U.S. Geological Survey, California is due for another megaflood.

“Absolutely, it could happen again,” Gershunov said. “The probability of it happening is increasing with stronger atmospheric rivers.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #54 on: July 22, 2019, 05:27:10 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #55 on: July 25, 2019, 01:33:29 AM »
Climate Change May Revive Medieval Megadroughts in US Southwest
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-climate-revive-medieval-megadroughts-southwest.html

About a dozen megadroughts struck the American Southwest between the 9th through the 15th centuries, but then they mysteriously ceased around the year 1600. What caused this clustering of megadroughts—that is, severe droughts that last for decades—and why do they happen at all?

A study published today in Science Advances provides the first comprehensive theory for why there were megadroughts in the American Southwest. The authors found that ocean temperature conditions plus high radiative forcing—when Earth absorbs more sunlight than it radiates back into space—play important roles in triggering megadroughts. The study suggests an increasing risk of future megadroughts in the American Southwest due to climate change.


By reconstructing aquatic climate data and sea-surface temperatures from the last 2,000 years, the team found three key factors that led to megadroughts in the American Southwest: radiative forcing, severe and frequent La Niña events—cool tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that cause changes to global weather events—and warm conditions in the Atlantic. High radiative forcing appears to have dried out the American Southwest, likely due to an increase in solar activity (which would send more radiation toward us) and a decrease in volcanic activity (which would admit more of it) at the time. The resulting increase in heat would lead to greater evaporation. At the same time, warmer than usual Atlantic sea-surface temperatures combined with very strong and frequent La Niñas decreased precipitation in the already dried-out area. Of these three factors, La Niña conditions were estimated to be more than twice as important in causing the megadroughts.

There are predictions about future trends in temperatures, aridity, and sea surface temperatures, but future El Niño and La Niña activity remains difficult to simulate. Nevertheless, the researchers conclude that human-driven climate change is stacking the deck towards more megadroughts in the future.

"Because you increase the baseline aridity, in the future when you have a big La Niña, or several of them in a row, it could lead to megadroughts in the American West," explained lead author Nathan Steiger, a Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory hydroclimatologist.

During the time of the medieval megadroughts, increased radiative forcing was caused by natural climate variability. But today we are experiencing increased dryness in many locations around the globe due to human-made forces. Climate change is setting the stage for an increased possibility of megadroughts in the future through greater aridity, say the researchers.



Open Access; N.J. Steiger el al., "Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest," Science Advances (2019)

-------------------------------

Clues On How Soils May Respond to Climate Change Found
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-clues-soils-climate.html

Rock core samples from a period of warming millions of years ago indicate soils contributed to a rapid rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas and suggest modern climate models may overestimate Earth's ability to mitigate future warming, according to an international team of scientists.

Researchers discovered a drastic drop in organic material preserved in sections of core samples from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a global warming event 55.5 million years ago that's considered the best analogue for modern climate change.

Quote
... "We see the amount of carbon drops drastically, by orders of magnitude, during this PETM event," ... So at least in Wyoming, my data suggests soils acted as a source, not a sink, for carbon dioxide

The findings, according to the researchers, suggest ancient soils from a site in modern day Wyoming acted as a source of atmospheric carbon dioxide, emitting the greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, and not a sink, trapping and storing carbon underground.

The researchers said this could mean global climate models, which expect soils to be a sink, may overstate the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to lessen the impacts of climate change.

The researchers found the 130-foot section they believe to represent the PETM had the lowest weight of total carbon and biomarkers of any part of the core.

"At least in the Bighorn Basin, it appears that high PETM temperature, seasonally intense precipitation, or a combination, accelerated organic matter decay rates such that they outpaced plant productivity and ultimately resulted in reduced soil organic carbon during the PETM," Baczynski said.

The PETM is marked by global rise in temperatures, from about 9 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit, and a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide from this time has a unique isotopic signature, and scientists can identify it in tree and plant fossils that absorbed the carbon.

Allison A. Baczynski et al, Carbon Isotope Record of Trace n ‐alkanes in a Continental PETM Section Recovered by the Bighorn Basin Coring Project (BBCP), Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #56 on: July 25, 2019, 08:55:56 AM »
Rhine River Shipping Faces Another Historic Shutdown as Drought Hits Water Levels
https://amp.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2019/07/24/533767.htm

The bustling boat traffic on Europe’s Rhine river ground to a halt for the first time in living memory last year, as shrinking alpine glaciers and severe drought made the key transport artery impassable. Those historic conditions could be repeated in a few weeks.

With little rainfall recently, water levels at Kaub — a critical chokepoint near Frankfurt — dropped to about 150 centimeters (59 inches), half the depth from just a month ago. Movements of the heaviest barges are already restricted, and all river cargo could again cease if the level falls below 50 centimeters.



Companies up and down the Rhine — from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to BASF SE — are stepping up emergency planning: buying smaller boats, protectively booking truck and train capacity and cramming more supplies into warehouses. Forecasts for a heatwave have further jangled nerves, with hot and dry conditions expected to remain in place for at least the next 10 days, according to weather forecaster Maxar.

“We are expecting clear blue skies” and temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) in Germany, said Andreas Friedrich, meteorologist at Germany’s DWD federal weather agency. “The water-level situation will get worse.”

... An April study by ETH Zurich predicts that half of the Alps’ glaciers could disappear within three decades.

That would cause the once-mighty Rhine to become even more reliant on rainfall, but changes to the jet stream make it more likely that arid heat from the Sahara sweeps over Europe.
Two-month forecasts from Germany’s DWD federal weather service point to a third consecutive summer of exceptionally dry weather.

Efforts to mitigate the impact of a renewed halt of Rhine shipping — which caused Germany and Switzerland to tap into emergency fuel stockpiles last year — are merely stopgaps. Road and rail capacity is limited and much more expensive than barge transport. Storage availability along the Rhine is already tight because of Brexit-related stockpiling.

But officials acknowledged that they can’t keep boats floating if water runs low.

“The Rhine is a natural river,” said Hans-Heinrich Witte, president of Germany’s WSV rivers authority. “There are limits to what we can do to keep it open as an industrial waterway.” 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #57 on: July 25, 2019, 09:02:53 AM »
Thanks for the reports vox. Could you repost the Clues On How Soils May Respond to Climate Change Found article to Carbon Cycle in Science? It´s a bit lost in here...and i think it is too important for that.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #58 on: July 25, 2019, 03:34:18 PM »
Quote
“The Rhine is a natural river,” said Hans-Heinrich Witte, president of Germany’s WSV rivers authority. “There are limits to what we can do to keep it open as an industrial waterway.” 
Imagine putting locks along certain portions of the Rhine.  That sad day may be coming.  "Natural, smatrual", I hear Tom Lehrer singing.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

kassy

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #59 on: July 25, 2019, 09:05:43 PM »
Not much meltwater from ice and snow + ever higher evaporation will make that problematic after a while.

I think the Rhine going to low for transport might be a good wake up call. We were close last year but not close enough. For many it is closer then any BOE so hopefully it will influence some politicians to not kick the can down the road again.
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #60 on: July 27, 2019, 08:16:21 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #61 on: July 29, 2019, 02:51:14 AM »
How India's Drought in Tamil Nadu Affects US Pharmaceuticals
https://edmdigest.com/original/drought-us-pharmaceuticals/?amp

Sometimes, in a global economy, an abstract problem 'over there', can suddenly become a concrete problem 'over here.'

Take the drought in Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu.

Tamil Nadu is one of India’s most prominent states in pharmaceutical manufacturing, ranking fifth out of the nation’s 29 states. Approximately 50 percent of the pharmaceuticals manufactured in India are exported, with the United States being a major importer of many of these drugs.


According to Pharmaceutical Technology, Tamil Nadu supplies 50% of the global demand for a range of vaccines, 40% of the generics demand in the U.S. and 25% of all UK medicine. That makes the state of Tamil Nadu important to Americans’ health.

No water - no drugs.


If the water crisis continues, the United States will face its own crisis as India is the nation’s ninth largest trading partner. U.S. goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $142.1 billion in 2018. Exports were $58.9 billion; imports were $83.2 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with India was $24.2 billion in 2018, according to a report from the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #62 on: August 02, 2019, 06:02:16 PM »
2°C of Global Warming Would Put Pressure On Melbourne's Water Supply
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-2c-global-pressure-melbourne.html



Melbourne's existing water supplies may face pressure if global warming hits the 2℃ level, according to our new research published today in Environmental Research Letters.

The effects of drying and warming in southern Australia are expected to reduce natural water supplies. Climate models and hydrological models together indicate future declines in catchment inflows as global warming increases from 1.5℃ to 2℃. If we overshoot 2℃ of warming, even the desalination plant might not provide enough drinking water to a growing population.

Currently, all capital city urban reservoir systems in southern Australia are below 60%, and several are nearing or below 50%. The Victorian government recently ordered 125 gigalitres of water from the desalination plant.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #63 on: August 06, 2019, 11:10:41 PM »

DrTskoul

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #64 on: August 07, 2019, 12:30:56 PM »
It’s the other way around. Growth has created the water shortage...

kassy

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #65 on: August 07, 2019, 04:19:59 PM »
And lots of bad policies. Quoting just a short snippet:


Bengaluru is typical of urban areas countrywide. Every metro/city/town demands more and more water from outside, instead of cutting loss and wastage, conserving water, harvesting rainwater and protecting water resources. A study shows that Bengaluru’s annual domestic water demand of 18.34 TMC (at a lavish 135 litres person per day) can be met from the annual rainwater yield of 14.80 TMC plus 16.04 TMC from treated domestic wastewater, leaving 12.5 TMC annually for industrial/commercial use.

https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/main-article/looming-water-crisis-there-is-a-way-out-752573.html
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2019, 06:06:53 PM »
Irrigation could be delaying monsoon in India, cautions IPCC study
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/irrigation-could-be-delaying-monsoon-in-india-cautions-ipcc-study/article28988517.ece

... “Irrigation in India occurs prior to the start of the monsoon season and the resulting land cooling decreases the land-sea temperature contrast. This can delay the onset of the monsoon and decrease its intensity,” the report said, quoting studies carried out in the past.

... However, according to the Hamburg scientists, if India were to reduce watering its crops, rainfall can decrease in eastern Africa where the consequences of drought are already disastrous.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #67 on: August 12, 2019, 09:25:49 PM »
^^
You make it sound as if it's somehow connected?


You're not one of those believers in butterfly wing flapping are you?


The FSM is the only true Flying God, and He's a jealous SOB (Spaghetti over Bratwurst)
Begone with the fashionable frippery that stands between The Provided Truth and this thing called Math.


Ramen
Terry

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #68 on: August 12, 2019, 09:44:01 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #69 on: August 13, 2019, 02:02:05 AM »
^^
Ramen Matey!
Terry

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #70 on: August 15, 2019, 12:08:10 PM »
Amid drought, plants in Chennai guzzle 21 million liters of groundwater per day



Quote
Drought-prone Tamil Nadu has the highest number of licensed packaged drinking water and carbonated beverages units in the country. These water-guzzling plants operating in and around Chennai draw at least 21 million litres of water every day. For the record, water-starved Tamil Nadu has 40 percent of the total ‘over-exploited’ groundwater resource locations in India.

Data released by the Union ministry of Jal Shakti in Lok Sabha last week revealed that TN has 3,299 licensed mineral water, packaged drinking water and carbonated beverage units and bottling plants, which is 18 percent of the total such units running in the country.


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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #71 on: August 15, 2019, 07:38:30 PM »
Locally we prefer giving our spring water to Nestle at no charge. They bottle it and return it for a small surcharge. >:(
Terry

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #72 on: August 16, 2019, 06:19:53 AM »
Netherlands droughtmonitor report.
(13 aug 2019, from the Government's watermanagement center LCW)

https://waterberichtgeving.rws.nl/LCW/droogtedossier/droogtemonitoren-2019

The report is in Dutch. Here is a translation of part of the introduction.

Despite the recent rainfall, the east and south of the Netherlands and Zeeland are still suffering from drought. Groundwater levels remain too low in many places. The rainfall stabilizes the situation but there is no recovery of groundwater levels yet. In a number of areas, mainly on the elevated sandy soil areas, nature and agriculture are stressed. These areas are dependent on rainfall and groundwater and are not fed by the big rivers and other waterways.

Country wide the quality of the water has a bit improved but e.g. the number of negative swimming advices is not falling.


more info@ https://www.duurzaamnieuws.nl/grondwater-droogt-op-door-klimaatverandering
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #73 on: August 25, 2019, 03:36:28 AM »
Worst Drought In Decades Hits Chile Capital and Outskirts
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-worst-drought-decades-chile-capital.html

Officials in Chile say the capital city and its outskirts are suffering from the worst drought in many years.

The government has declared an agricultural emergency in many areas to try to fast-track a series of relief measures for farmers, including provision of drinking water and medicine for animals.

Santiago Metropolitan region, Coquimbo, Valparaiso and O'Higgins are among the worst-hit areas.

Agriculture Minister Antonio Walker said this week that 2019 is one of the driest years Chile has faced in six decades.

Officials are increasingly concerned by the effects of climate change after a long-drought. The world's leading copper-producing country uses large quantities of water for the industry, which is the backbone of the economy.

------------------

U.S. Shipments from Chile Dropping Amid Extreme Drought
https://www.google.com/amp/www.freightwaves.com/news/u-s-shipments-from-chile-dropping-amid-extreme-drought/amp

Central Chile is suffering its worst drought in 60 years. This includes the capital of Santiago, home to nearly half the country’s population of 18 million people, as well as the nearby region of Valparaiso. Experts predict climate change, over-exploitation by agriculture and other factors mean the shortage of water will be permanent. Not only is this changing the lives of farmers and ranchers, but it’s also cutting into revenue from agricultural products sent on cargo ships from Chile to the U.S.

Santiago and surrounding areas are in the midst of what scientists have called a Mega Drought (MD) – an uninterrupted period of dry years since 2010. It encompasses a broad area with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts.

The drought is so bad that Chile’s Minister of Agriculture, Antonio Walker, announced recently that the government had decided to declare an agricultural emergency in the Region of Valparaiso due to the water shortage.

... Imports of grapes (fresh or dried) from Chile to the U.S. fell 14.6 percent, to $659.91 million, for the same year-over-year period; strawberries, blueberries and raspberries combined fell 11.72 percent to $262.91 million.

-----------------------

Farmers in Chile Losing Freshwater Battle with Lithium Mines
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/08/farmers-in-chile-losing-freshwater-battle-with-lithium-mines-well-be-left-here-with-no-water-no-animals-no-agriculture-with-nothing.html

... Chile is the world’s second-largest producer after Australia, with an output of 16,000 tonnes last year, all from the Atacama. Valued at $949m (£785m) this was a 38% rise on 2017.

There are currently just two companies mining lithium here – a US firm, Albemarle, and Chile’s own SQM.

They need the fresh water to clean machinery and pipes, and also to produce an auxiliary product from the brine – potash – which is used as a fertiliser.

Standing among yellowing tufts of grass that used to be pasture lands Sarah – who monitors water supplies for her indigenous community – points out a small pumping station that draws up underground fresh water and pipes it to the lithium mines.

... “The birds have gone, we can’t keep animals anymore,” ... “It’s getting harder and harder to grow crops. If it gets any worse … we will have to emigrate.” …
« Last Edit: August 25, 2019, 03:57:37 AM by vox_mundi »
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DrTskoul

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #74 on: August 27, 2019, 07:34:22 PM »
World’s largest permafrost river dries to a record low

Quote
Lena River fleet cannot sail after abnormal heat causes 2.5 metre water level drop.



Quote
The current water level means critical delays in the summer ritual delivering vital supplies to Arctic settlements in Yakutia, Russia’s biggest region.

Most of its remote corners are only accessible via water, with the lives of thousands of people depending on this traffic flow - which has been halted for weeks due to the low level of the longest river flowing entirely within Russia.

In regional capital Yakutsk the water dropped so suddenly that hundreds of cargo ships and smaller boats were left stranded in the sand.

Elsewhere along the river fishermen complained about an extremely low catch, saying that for days they were coming back home with empty buckets.

‘However many times I tried fishing with spinning and net, I caught nothing. I am now having to buy fish at shops, and many of us anglers fear that fish will die out in such shallow water’, bemoaned local fishermen Alexander Chigmarev.


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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #75 on: August 27, 2019, 09:14:48 PM »
The village surviving a drought on cave water
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/49436917/the-village-surviving-a-drought-on-cave-water
Quote
During Indonesia's summer months, in villages like Klepu in East Java province, the only source of clean water is in a 10m (33ft) deep cave.

To tackle rising demand, the government has made plans to give 10 million more homes running water by 2024.

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #76 on: August 29, 2019, 09:55:32 PM »
People across Southwest long for seasonal rainstorms
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/people-southwest-longing-seasonal-rainstorms-65228444
Quote
The monsoon season, characterized by a shift in wind patterns and moisture being pulled in from the tropical coast of Mexico, arrives like clockwork in mid-June and runs through September. Usually it means rain but not much has fallen this summer and the Southwest is parched.

The Flagstaff airport usually logs nearly 5.5 inches of rain by now has only seen one-fifth of that — the driest in 120 years. Las Vegas has barely recorded any rain. The city of St. George, Utah, had zero rain in July and August — far from the average 1.25 inches (2.75 cm).

The dryness stretching across the Four Corners region has hydrologists worried, although many places are still above-normal for precipitation because of a wet winter.

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #77 on: September 14, 2019, 01:18:47 PM »
Zimbabwe Drought Risks Famine and Climate Change Makes It Worse
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-09-13/a-water-crisis-is-making-things-even-worse-in-zimbabwe

... Zimbabwe is in the grip of a nationwide drought that’s depleted dams, cut output by hydropower plants, caused harvests to fail and prompted the government to appeal for $464 million in aid to stave off famine. It’s disastrous for a nation whose economy has been driven to the brink of collapse by two decades of mismanagement, meaning the authorities can’t afford to effect repairs, let alone extend water access to a burgeoning urban population.

But Zimbabwe’s location means it’s likely to experience more frequent droughts in future. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change has identified southern Africa as a so-called hotspot—a region that faces increased risks of heat extremes and less rainfall as the planet’s temperature rises.

The consequences are plain to see in Zimbabwe’s second city of Bulawayo, in the west of the country. Once a thriving industrial hub, most manufacturing has come to a standstill and the city council has begun rationing water from the pumps and pipes that still work in a bid to stretch supplies until November when the rainy season normally begins.

Quote
... “Life here goes backwards,” ... “First there was no water, now there’s usually no electricity. That’s our life now.”
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Alexander555

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #78 on: September 15, 2019, 10:01:56 AM »
The river Maas is running dry (again), and it's not just climate change. https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/09/11/de-maas-als-bron-van-drinkwater-kwetsbaarder-door-droogte-a3972921

Sigmetnow

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #79 on: September 15, 2019, 02:03:35 PM »
Australia

‘Critical’: parts of regional NSW set to run out of water by November
Quote
WaterNSW warns without significant rain, Macquarie River will run dry, wiping out supply to Dubbo, Cobar, Nyngan and Narromine

Parts of regional New South Wales could run out of water as early as November with data showing the worst-case scenario for the state if there’s no rain or government intervention.

The projections from NSW’s river operator and bulk water supplier WaterNSW show without significant rain the first towns to lose water supply will be Dubbo, Cobar, Nyngan and Narromine with the Macquarie River forecast to run dry by November.

The Macquarie River experiences an average inflow of 1,448GL annually but in the past two years has seen just 97GL enter the river system, the data shows.

It has been described as a “critical” situation by the NSW water minister, Melinda Pavey, who told reporters in Canberra on Sunday the government is doing “everything humanly possible” to make sure the state gets through this devastating drought.

The NSW government has committed $130m for extra bores and pipelines to reduce water lost in transmission, she said, citing a pipeline to extend Tamworth’s water supply by 18 months and $30m for bores in Dubbo.

Australia’s longest river, the Murray, has been severely affected with 901GL of water entering the system in the past 12 months compared with its annual average of 5000GL. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/15/parts-of-regional-nsw-set-to-run-out-of-water-by-november
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #80 on: September 15, 2019, 03:08:06 PM »
Australia

‘Critical’: parts of regional NSW set to run out of water by November
Quote
WaterNSW warns without significant rain, Macquarie River will run dry, wiping out supply to Dubbo, Cobar, Nyngan and Narromine

Parts of regional New South Wales could run out of water as early as November with data showing the worst-case scenario for the state if there’s no rain or government intervention.

........

I don't know what government intervention is planed as both the governments at both state and federal are in denial, trucking vast quantities of water is probably the only option. For some background Dubbo is the largest town with around 40k population.

Forecasts aren't showing any signs of significant rain which will make this summer challenging.
The next strong El-Nino, which brings hotter and drier conditions, could well depopulate these towns as they primarily exist to support farming which will collapse if the drought continues into an El-Nino season.

We live in interesting times.




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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #81 on: September 16, 2019, 02:33:21 PM »
The drought is now so severe it is biting in even the greenest corners of the country
Farmers along Australia's normally green eastern coast are reeling from the worst drought they have ever seen and face a tough summer if it doesn't rain in the next few months.
Quote
Key points:
• Even the greenest parts of the east coast are now feeling the effects of the drought
• Some areas of the NSW mid-north coast have only received 20 per cent of their annual rainfall
• Farmers have taken on work off the farm or are selling stock to make ends meet

The NSW mid-north coast is usually a lush part of the country, with reliable rain and regular flooding.  But the region has been in drought for two years now and farmers say it is starting to bite.

"We normally get 40 inches of rain [a year] and I think we are up to around 8 inches," fourth-generation beef farmer Tony Saul told 7.30.  "And that might be all we're going to get for the year."

He is standing in a dry river bed that stretches for hundreds of metres through his property near Kempsey.  It's usually full of water where his cattle drink.

"This is the longest and the driest it's been since I can remember and I've been here for my whole life," Mr Saul said.  "We've had dry periods — you know, it might be dry for three or four months.

"But it's been dry for 12 months here and the big concern is we've just been through our wet period of the calendar year." ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-16/drought-now-affecting-even-the-greenest-parts-of-the-country/11487026
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #82 on: September 16, 2019, 02:41:12 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #83 on: September 16, 2019, 05:23:05 PM »
Related to: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,622.msg226497.html#msg226497

and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2452.msg228920.html#msg228920

---------------------

Rare Weather Event Over Antarctica Driving Australia's Hot, Dry Outlook
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/rare-weather-event-over-antarctica-drives-hot-outlook/11481498

A rare event that took place 30 kilometres above the South Pole last week is expected to impact upon Australia's rainfall outlook.



The upper atmosphere above Antarctica warmed by as much as 40 degrees Celsius in the course of a few days — and it is continuing to warm.

This rare phenomenon, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), could deepen one of the worst droughts in Australian history.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Harry Hendon warned of dry weather ahead.

"We will typically see conditions across most of Australia, but primarily concentrated in the eastern part of Australia, become warmer and drier through spring and into early summer," Dr Hendon said.

SSW is rare in the southern hemisphere with only one major event ever identified, in 2002 — one of Australia's driest years on record.


2002 Rainfall Anomalies

Dr Hendon said similar, less intense stratospheric warmings had been linked to other dry years in Australia.

"In the past 30 years we probably have had five or six occurrences that didn't quite qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming," he said.

... Sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica causes westerly winds south of Australia to track further north, a pattern meteorologists refer to as a 'negative SAM'.

In spring and summer, this negative SAM pattern brings warmer, drier air into southern Queensland and New South Wales.

"We looked at what happened over that period and we're pretty confident that we will see an increase in temperatures and a decrease in rainfall in central-eastern Australia in the following months."



"Unfortunately, these are areas already in drought," said a lead author of the BOM's spring climate outlook, Andrew Watkins.

Dr Watkins said cooler than normal water in the Indian Ocean, a phenomenon meteorologists call a 'positive IOD', has led to a lack of moisture drifting over the continent.



"This has certainly been a big factor in why winter has been so dry in virtually all of Australia," he said

On top of that, we have the likelihood of prolonged periods of negative SAM, which also brings drier conditions to New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Dr Watkins said the impact of the SSW may be felt in Australia through to the end of the year.

"These sudden stratospheric warming events and the patterns that we see from them can go from September [to] October, sometimes persisting through to January," he said.
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #84 on: September 17, 2019, 01:24:08 AM »
Australia Lowers Wheat Export Forecast by 7.7% on Drought
https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/australia-lowers-wheat-export-forecast-by-77-on-drought

SYDNEY, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Australia on Tuesday lowered its forecast for wheat exports for the 2019/20 season by 7.7% as a prolonged drought wilts supplies.

The reduction comes after Australia's chief commodity forecaster last week cut its production forecast for the 2019/20 harvest by nearly 10% as the drought leaves crops struggling to survive.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on Tuesday said wheat exports would total 10.8 million tonnes in the crop year beginning in July, down from its previous estimate in June of 11.7 million tonnes.

Smaller Australian exports will also be a drag on the country's stuttering economy.

Wheat is the country's most lucrative rural export from an agricultural sector worth about A$50 billion ($34.39 billion).

With dwindling supplies, Australian end-users have required rare imports. ABARES said that as off Aug. 30, licences to import 300,000 tonnes of Canadian wheat have been issued.
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #85 on: September 18, 2019, 12:25:12 PM »
And towns are about to run out of water soon.

Oddly, this information hadnt been released by the Govt until last week.... almost as if they were trying to hide it.

At what point do we stop calling it a drought and start calling it desertification?

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/15/parts-of-regional-nsw-set-to-run-out-of-water-by-november

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #86 on: October 03, 2019, 11:04:59 PM »
'Flash Drought' Worsening Across 14 Southern US States
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-drought-worsening-southern-states.html

More than 45 million people across 14 Southern states are now in the midst of what's being called a "flash drought" that's cracking farm soil, drying up ponds and raising the risk of wildfires, scientists said Thursday.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report released Thursday shows extreme drought conditions in parts of Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina and the Florida panhandle. Lesser drought conditions also have expanded in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Overall, nearly 20 percent of the lower 48 U.S. states is experiencing drought conditions.

... The drought was affecting some water supplies across the region. Lake levels have been falling throughout Georgia, including at Lake Lanier, which provides much of Atlanta's drinking water. ...

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #87 on: October 10, 2019, 02:28:58 PM »
'Flash Drought' Brings Dust and Dread to Southern Farmers
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-drought-dread-southern-farmers.html

... The USDA crop report shows nearly a quarter of the cotton crop is in poor or very poor condition in Texas, where more than 13 million people—more than half the state's population—are experiencing drought conditions, the center reported. Extreme drought spread into several new areas of central and eastern Texas in recent weeks.

The situation is also dire in North Carolina, where 40% of the cotton and 30% of the corn is in poor or very poor shape. In Georgia, nearly 20% of the peanut crop is in poor or very poor condition, the report shows.


The heat has played a large factor, forecasters say. In August, high temperatures and humidity sent the heat index soaring across the South. The heat index—what it actually feels like—rose to 121 degrees (49.4 Celsius) in Clarksdale, Mississippi, on Aug. 12. And that heat stuck around, carrying record high temperatures into October. Several Alabama cities this year have seen their hottest October temperature ever recorded.

... "It's been probably better than 60 days since we had any precipitation that amounted to anything," ... "The dust is just relentless.".

.. "It is frustrating with the weather, complicated by cattle prices not as high as we'd like to see them," ... "So if you are forced to sell, then you're going to have less income. It just all plays into the frustration of trying to make a living farming."
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #88 on: October 10, 2019, 03:20:31 PM »
Much of the drought can be tied to the lack of landfalling tropical systems.  The Jet stream has brought pleniful rains north of the Appalachians, but little to the south.  This is typically the wettest time of the year, but the Gulf and Caribbean have not been cooperating. 

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #89 on: October 10, 2019, 10:27:00 PM »
That cotton report is interesting. The USA subsidizes cotton by over 50 billion US$/yr. to the dismay of other cotton growing countries. There is already pushback from africa, and china has been making noises in support of Africa. Will be interesting to see if the cotton farmers can extract more subsidies from the federal teat.

Cotton is a  very demanding crop, exhausts the soil very quickly.

sidd

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #90 on: October 10, 2019, 11:27:32 PM »
^^
I remember a lot of desert land around Coolidge AZ that had once been cotton fields.
After ~ a decade of diminishing returns they found that even native cactus had difficulty making a comeback.
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #91 on: October 10, 2019, 11:46:06 PM »
^
And this is what Coolidge AZ soil looks like today when it blows over Phoenix AZ.



When I lived in Phoenix in the 80s, dust storms occurred 1-2 times a year; now it's 10-15 times a year. I've seen that 'soil' in Coolidge - it's nothing but dust (... mixed with a lot of pesticides)
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #92 on: October 11, 2019, 01:11:37 AM »
^^
Great picture illustrating that upward mobility is still possible, even in AridZona. ;)
Terry

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #93 on: December 07, 2019, 11:04:18 AM »
   Victoria Falls dries to a trickle after worst drought in a century


One of southern Africa’s biggest tourist attractions has seen an unprecedented decline this dry season, fuelling climate change fears

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/07/victoria-falls-dries-to-a-trickle-after-worst-drought-in-a-century
  by Reuters at Victoria Falls


  Excerpts:
For decades Victoria Falls, where southern Africa’s Zambezi river cascades down 100 metres into a gash in the earth, have drawn millions of holidaymakers to Zimbabwe and Zambia for their stunning views.

But the worst drought in a century has slowed the waterfalls to a trickle, fuelling fears that climate change could kill one of the region’s biggest tourist attractions.

While they typically slow down during the dry season, officials said this year had brought an unprecedented decline in water levels.

“In previous years, when it gets dry, it’s not to this extent,” Dominic Nyambe, a seller of tourist handicrafts in his 30s, said outside his shop in Livingstone, on the Zambian side. “This [is] our first experience of seeing it like this.

“It affects us because ... clients ... can see on the internet [that the falls are low] ... We don’t have so many tourists.”

"..southern Africa is already suffering some of its worst effects – with taps running dry and about 45 million people in need of food aid amid crop failures"
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El Cid

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #94 on: December 07, 2019, 12:25:51 PM »
^^
I remember a lot of desert land around Coolidge AZ that had once been cotton fields.
After ~ a decade of diminishing returns they found that even native cactus had difficulty making a comeback.
Terry

We screwed up the soil big time. Most of these dustsorms are man made. Not because of less rain but because we destroyed the soil

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #95 on: December 19, 2019, 03:04:12 PM »
Namibia's power supply squeezed as drought hits hydropower plant
  by Reuters

http://news.trust.org/item/20191218101311-y6fjr/


The drought, plus power blackouts at South African power company Eskom, on which Namibia relies for 70% of its energy requirements, has put the security of the country's electricity supply at risk.

WINDHOEK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Namibia's electricity generation has dropped to below 40% of its capacity as the worst drought in almost a century has hit the country's own hydropower plant and others in the region reliant on water from dams and rivers.



The Kariba hydroelectric plant, which serves Zimbabwe and Zambia and is fed by the Zambezi river, has also been hit by a substantial fall in water levels.

Zambezi River Authority Chief Executive Munyaradzi Munadawafa said last week the Kariba might have to reduce generation drastically, perhaps even to the point where the plant shuts down.
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #96 on: December 21, 2019, 07:15:03 PM »
Water Thieves Steal 80,000 Gallons in Australia as Our Mad Max-Style Future Becomes Reality
https://earther.gizmodo.com/water-thieves-steal-80-000-gallons-in-australia-as-our-1840549648?utm_medium=socialflow&utm_campaign=socialflow_gizmodo_facebook&utm_source=gizmodo_facebook&fbclid=IwAR1k8Iuo8QY1kI3fT7mLikIAoazXT_lojbuU4gVt4gVyVWIafSn0OGtQQbA

Thieves stole roughly 80,000 gallons of water in a region of Australia that’s suffering from one of the worst droughts in the history of the country. And with record-breaking heat and bushfires getting even larger, it feels like Australia is living in the future. That future, unfortunately, looks a lot like Mad Max.

Police in New South Wales, Australia’s most populous state, report that a farmer in the small town of Evans Plain had about 80,000 gallons of water (300,000 liters) stolen from his property, according to the Australian newspaper. The farmer only noticed the theft from two enormous storage tanks on Sunday, though it could have happened at anytime between December 9 and December 15, according to authorities.

It’s becoming more and more common to see thieves targeting water storage facilities, as climate change continues to devastate Australia as it heads into summer. Just a couple of weeks ago, thieves in the small town of Murwillumbah stole about 6,600 gallons (25,000 liters) of water, enough to fill about six or seven fire trucks, according to local authorities.

And it all feels like something out of a sci-fi dystopia, where battles over water are fought to sustain a meager existence.
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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #97 on: January 01, 2020, 02:20:32 PM »
Water Shortages Afflict Panama Canal, 20 Years After its Transfer
https://dw.com/en/water-shortages-dog-panama-canal-20-years-after-its-transfer/a-51847280

The Panama Canal's handover from the United States 20 years ago has been marked in Panama amid water supply worries. Managers say less rainfall due to climate change has depleted the inter-ocean conduit's Gatun Lake.

... Recurrent droughts left the 80 kilometer-long (50 mile) system of locks with only 3 billion cubic meters of water this past year, instead of the 5.2 billion cubic meters needed, according to the canal authority (ACP).

Gatun Lake, which sustains the waterway and provides local drinking water, is also losing volume by evaporation, with its temperature up 1.5° Celsius in the past decade.

Currently, the region's rainfall deficit is 27% compared with the average, said the ACP.

Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez on Tuesday blamed climate change, drawing attention to Panama's costly ideas of desalinating seawater or building reservoirs.

... Already, canal officials fear that ships transiting Pacific-Atlantic waters across the narrow Central American isthmus will opt for other global routes, such as Egypt's Suez Canal or Arctic transits north of Russia or Canada as polar ice melts.

The Panama Canal handled 451 million tons of goods in 2019, representing 3.5% of world trade — down from 5% previously.

Consolidation of Asian economies, amid US-China trade standoffs, had also put the canal's prospects in difficulty said Horacio Estribi, an adviser to Panama's economy minister.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2019
« Reply #98 on: January 02, 2020, 05:45:14 PM »
A Warning from Ancient Tree Rings: The Americas Are Prone to Catastrophic, Simultaneous Droughts
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/warning-ancient-tree-rings-americas-are-prone-catastrophic-simultaneous-droughts

For 10 years, central Chile has been gripped by unrelenting drought. With 30% less rainfall than normal, verdant landscapes have withered, reservoirs are low, and more than 100,000 farm animals have died. The dry spell has lasted so long that researchers are calling it a “megadrought,” rivaling dry stretches centuries ago. It’s not so different from the decadelong drought that California, some 8000 kilometers away, endured until this year.

By analyzing tree ring records, scientists have now found evidence that such tandem droughts are more than a coincidence: They are surprisingly common over the past 1200 years, and they may often share a common cause—an abnormally cool state of the eastern Pacific Ocean known as La Niña. “We did not expect there to be as much coherence as we see,” says Nathan Steiger, a paleoclimatologist at Columbia University who presented the work this month at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union. “They just happen together.” The results suggest that, in the future, extreme aridity could strike all along the Americas’ western coast.

... Steiger combined tree-ring records with thousands of other proxies for dryness and temperature from trees, corals, ocean sediments, and ice cores, and fed them into a global climate model. Aligning itself to the records, it generated a global view of the changing climate, even in places with sparse proxies. The model confirmed that, from 800 to 1600 C.E., multiple megadroughts occurred simultaneously across the hemispheres. “It’s there,” Cook says. “Without question, it’s there.”

Besides correlating the varied climate records, the model also identified the key factors driving the climate variations. Steiger and his co-authors, including Cook, first used the new tool to look at megadroughts in the U.S. Southwest. Their study, published this year in Science Advances, is “amazing,” says David Stahle, a tree ring scientist at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. “It’s a bit like … they took those black-and-white films and colorized them.” They found that megadroughts in the Southwest were influenced by three factors: an anomalously warm North Atlantic Ocean, small global temperature rises driven by factors such as a brightening Sun, and, especially, La Niña. The cold cousin of El Niño, La Niña can persist for years, deflecting rainstorms away from their usual tracks.

In the new work, the team finds that La Niña is almost the sole driver of the South American megadroughts. And because La Niña affects conditions on both sides of the equator, it could plausibly trigger simultaneous droughts in both hemispheres.

Open Access: Nathan Steiger, et.al. Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American Southwest, Science Advances 2019
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late