Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020

[ASILurker]

Who is your Preferred Choice today to be the Democratic Party Presidential Nominee in 2020?

Not who you think will win it, but who you want to win it.

This is a Pre-Primary Poll which closes on 31st Dec 2019.

You can change your Vote at any time.

Non-Americans are encouraged to cast your Vote too.


Current RCP Polling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Wiki 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primaries information to date
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

[b_lumenkraft]

Bernie for President!

Warren as the vice.

That's my personal dream team.

[karl dubhe2]

Go Pete, go!

I'd love to see him take a victory over You-Know-Who.

Young, has a good beard...

[gerontocrat]

"Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn" - on this forum.

[oren]

Bernie, the only one who can and will make a big change about climate change.

[Klondike Kat]

I agree with Rhett.

[Rob Dekker]

I was with Bernie in 2016 and am with him for 2020.

His policies, across the board, align with my own opinions about justice.
Economically, politically and environmentally.

Knowing what we got with Trump, maybe we all realize that :

[ritter]

Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Being Californian and witnessing Harris for several yeas, I won't vote for her. She's an opportunist/corporate Dem in progressive clothing, no question about it.

[ritter]

Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Being Californian and witnessing Harris for several yeas, I won't vote for her. She's an opportunist/corporate Dem in progressive clothing, no question about it.

Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like?

I'd check the record if I were you. She has repeatedly cleared that up and apologised.

Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton too) was elected multiple times not supporting Gay marriage and outright being against it - they changed their minds on that.

But Gabbard has gone much further than either of those tow did. She means it, they did not.

Yes, she has apologized. Who knows what's in her heart.

Honestly, all the dem candidates have things I don't like, primarily around gun control as a tenet of electability--a very restrictive policy platform that has much better root cause solutions that would actually reduce all violence and that don't erode an enumerated right (rather not get too far into the weeds on this since I know it's a minority opinion on this board and isn't central to any of the discussions here). But those root cause solutions actually require real work to bring up the poor and provide equal access, something Republicans will never acknowledge and Corporate Dems won't address either.

[Klondike Kat]

Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Being Californian and witnessing Harris for several yeas, I won't vote for her. She's an opportunist/corporate Dem in progressive clothing, no question about it.

Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like?

I'd check the record if I were you. She has repeatedly cleared that up and apologised.

Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton too) was elected multiple times not supporting Gay marriage and outright being against it - they changed their minds on that.

But Gabbard has gone much further than either of those tow did. She means it, they did not.

Yes, she has apologized. Who knows what's in her heart.

Honestly, all the dem candidates have things I don't like, primarily around gun control as a tenet of electability--a very restrictive policy platform that has much better root cause solutions that would actually reduce all violence and that don't erode an enumerated right (rather not get too far into the weeds on this since I know it's a minority opinion on this board and isn't central to any of the discussions here). But those root cause solutions actually require real work to bring up the poor and provide equal access, something Republicans will never acknowledge and Corporate Dems won't address either.

Yes, the parties have become quite restrictive in what their respective candidates are allowed to support.  Very few people align with either party on all issues, why should the candidates?

[ritter]

Very few people align with either party on all issues, why should the candidates?

Most of the Dem candidates are right in line with the DNC platform. Sanders, less so. I suppose at this point in time, I expect some outside of the box thinking by those running and create some policy that will advance goals of: environmental quality, affordable health care and education, a functioning mental health and social support system and protection of rights. Instead, we get the same policy of incrementalism on those issues topped with a whopping serving of gun control as the most pressing thing in the US. It just isn't. The Green New Deal is about the best breath of fresh air I've seen in my lifetime and the establishment Dems are doing their best to erode it.

[ASILurker]

Longer discussions are best had on this thread

Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2200.0.html

[Klondike Kat]

Most of the Dem candidates are right in line with the DNC platform.

That is too bad.  I would like to some fresh, independent ideas.

[ASILurker]

Leader Board Combining the Two Polls to date 24th February

Total Votes 34

1) Bernie Sanders    13 Votes 38%

2) Kamala Harris      4 Votes 12%
2) Elizabeth Warren  4 Votes 12%

3) Tulsi Gabbard      3 Votes  9%

             Their Votes equal 71%

You irresponsible bunch of radicals you are.

I'll do this less often as the months go on .. but fwiw now 27-02

Combined results - Total Votes 41

Top Three
Bernie - 16 - 39%
Harris - 6 - 15%
Warren - 5 - 12%

Their Votes equal 66%

In national polling Joe Biden is still up around 30%

I think this race is going to be more interesting and more dramatic than 2008 or 2016 (gut feel)

Only 350 Days to the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

Only 616 Days to the Election Day

[b_lumenkraft]

Political Forecast - Election Predictions

[ASILurker]

Political Forecast - Election Predictions

Thanks that was fascinating insights.

Here's the link to the source info
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[Klondike Kat]

Political Forecast - Election Predictions

Thanks that was fascinating insights.

Here's the link to the source info
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

I tend to agree.  If Biden runs, he will be the front runner and likely nominee.  He probably has the best chance of winning too.

[colchonero]

Daily Kos independent visitor Poll
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/5/1839795/-Test-2-W-Poll

23210 votes - Who is your preferred candidate for President?

Bernie Sanders  70%
Andrew Yang 12%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%

Harris 3%
Warren 2%
Joe Biden 1%

Well there's a realistic poll

[Paddy]

I honestly don't know. I look at each name and think either "not him/her" and "who"s that?"

To those backing Bernie: I kind of like him, but do you not see his age as an obstacle? The oldest ever elected president was Reagan, who was 73 at the time of his second election. Bernie will be 78 in September. 

[b_lumenkraft]

What do you think is the max age and why, Paddy?

[Paddy]

It's not that I think there should be a specific cut off, but being of an age at which more than half of American men would already be dead would seem distinctly disadvantageous, both for campaigning (the Republicans came up with a lot of bs about Hillary's health, and she was a lot younger) and for doing the job itself.

Sanders and Biden are just a tad too old to inspire the confidence of swing voters etc. Sanders even looked a bit too old at the time of the *last* primaries, and he's not getting any younger.

[b_lumenkraft]

Thank you for your answer Paddy. Allow me to debunk that.

It's not that I think there should be a specific cut off

Good, he fits this criterium. 

but being of an age at which more than half of American men would already be dead

There are younger presidents died younger, and there are Americans being older.

He seems healthy, so this is pretty arbitrary.

In most societies, it is assumed an older person is wiser and more experienced. I can't see how this shouldn't also be a consideration for the most important job in the world.

would seem distinctly disadvantageous, both for campaigning

There is a huge grassroots army out there helping. I do not worry about that at all.

More than 1 million volunteers, the many small donations, word to mouth this is gonna be big!

Also, damn, he is a really good campaigner. Did he campaign his ass off for Hillary, or not?

(the Republicans came up with a lot of bs about Hillary's health, and she was a lot younger)

Idk man, the GOP smear machine will find smears no matter what. The Democratic candidate ought to wins with their agenda.

swing voters

To quote AOC here: " But he does!"

[oren]

I sure wish he was younger, but nobody's perfect.

[b_lumenkraft]

Our policy failed, we need to bend the knee.

Why there needs to be a candidate from the "radical left".

Neoliberal Policy Architect: Whoops!

[Paddy]

Thank you for your answer Paddy.

You're welcome - thank you too!

He seems healthy, so this is pretty arbitrary.

In most societies, it is assumed an older person is wiser and more experienced. I can't see how this shouldn't also be a consideration for the most important job in the world.

It's also noted in most workplaces that performqnce drops with age. Athletes in most disciplines peak by 30, surgeons about age 40, and most people retire around age 60 or 65. Many who try to stay on later still end up being unproductive and often a bit of a problem for their colleagues.  Past 80, he's going to be accruing health problems pretty quickly however perky he looks at 77, as entropy inevitably takes its toll.

would seem distinctly disadvantageous, both for campaigning

There is a huge grassroots army out there helping. I do not worry about that at all.

More than 1 million volunteers, the many small donations, word to mouth this is gonna be big!

Also, damn, he is a really good campaigner. Did he campaign his ass off for Hillary, or not?

Was. Was a good campaigner. And Hillary still didn't win, of course.

He's going to be slower now than he was then, physically and mentally. When Dems have won in the last few decades, it's been with candidates who were young, charismatic and energetic (Barrack Obama, Bill Clinton).  They need someone who can do now what they did then, and no 78 year old on earth would fit that bill.

[b_lumenkraft]

Noam Chomsky at age 91 is still Americas brightest thinker. The mind tends to grow with age unless you are mentally unhealthy like the acting president* indeed is.

Bernie is not candidating for being an athlete so i don't really get your point.

We have to agree to strongly disagree Paddy.

[Paddy]

Noam Chomsky at age 91 is still Americas brightest thinker. The mind tends to grow with age unless you are mentally unhealthy like the acting president* indeed is.

On the contrary, cognitive decline is part of the normal aging process https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4906299, even if you're lucky enough to avoid dementia, stroke, head injury or brain mets.

Bernie is not candidating for being an athlete so i don't really get your point.

It wasn't the best point, I'll confess... but the truth is that general physical decline begins in early adulthood.

We have to agree to strongly disagree Paddy.

Maybe so.  But just out of curioaity: how old would a candidate need to be before you had second thoughts on thst basis? 85? 90?

[b_lumenkraft]

It's the agenda that counts for me entirely Paddy. I don't have an age limit, i have an issue limit.

[ritter]

Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Beto O’Rourke has stated he's running. He's moved to first place for me based on his statements surrounding the urgency of climate change. 12 years to get it done. Sanders is now second.

[Tor Bejnar]

Tamino on Why you need to support Jay Inslee, even though you’d rather choose another candidate

…

So I suggest you throw your support 100% behind the candidate who I don’t think can get the nomination. Jay Inslee.

What??? Why would I suggest you not only support, but vigourously support the guy I think won’t even get the nomination? Let me tell you.

…

If you love Bernie, keep Jay in the race so when the bitch-slaps come, the only ones left standing are Jay and Bernie. If you love Elizabeth, give her the bitch-slap she desperately needs, not just to get the nomination and the presidency, but to do right by us when she does.

Whoever gets the democratic nomination, needs to hear Jay Inslee’s voice loud and clear, right on their heels.

Tamino usually makes sense.

[b_lumenkraft]

So, it's either a strong candidate with good climate action or a candidate with great climate action but less popular.

Also, it's either seeing Bernie win the primaries or seeing Kamela* win because the vote was split between Jay and Bernie.

*maybe Beto even...!?

[ASILurker]

Tamino usually makes sense.  (?)

So Tamino still believes the illusion that whoever wins the Democrat primary and the US Presidency will actually make a difference to the global climate crisis and the GHG emissions of the USA into the future. Gosh they might even be able to roll out a Green New Deal ... wow.

Seriously?

There's one born every minute.

[Paddy]

Eh, with a democratic congress they may make some difference. Obama was a bit hamstrung.

[oren]

A little difference is better than nothing. It's not as if there are other alternatives that will make a big difference.

[Klondike Kat]

Eh, with a democratic congress they may make some difference. Obama was a bit hamstrung.

Really?  He had two years of total control, and focused on an economic stimulus package and the affordable care act. 

[b_lumenkraft]

Bernie Sanders Frontrunner Wisconsin Democratic Primary Poll Emerson March 2019

[Neven]

I've added Andrew Yang to the list.

[ASILurker]

 Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The latest results are based on 13,644 interviews with registered voters, collected from April 1-7 2019.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Pete Buttigieg Mayor, has jumped 2% to 5% in about 2 weeks.
Biden and Sanders both dropped ~3% in recent weeks.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

This to me is the most curious aspect of voter polling at this time -- about 30% of current Biden and Warren supporters would switch to Bernie if those two dropped out.

 If Bernie Sanders dropped out 33% would go to Biden, and 17% to Warren.

If when Harris dropped out 20% would go to Biden, and 14% each to Sanders and O'Rourke.

If when O'Rouke drops out, 25% would jump to Biden and 21% to Sanders.

 What this tells me atm is that there is a strong identification of most voters towards both Sanders and Biden no matter which one they primarily support. This leaning is much stronger than all the others in the race whose polling seems more "scattered" but still leans heavily to BOTH Biden and Sanders. 

Reading the tea leaves here but considering history patterns and recent polling, to me it shows that if Biden was to run and drop out, and if Sanders is doing ok then a very high majority of DEMS (25-35% or even more) will switch automatically enmass to Sanders, and not the others.
And the reverse is also true but it's not quite as strong a leaning. I think that is really interesting and worth following where it is at in early 2020 and if Biden does run, what happens then.

 Now I am going to update the candidate poll list as at 9th April.

Feel free to change your choice anytime.

Now with 21 Candidate options, plus "someone/anyone" else or don't give a dam

[ASILurker]

As Joseph Biden throws his hat in the ring. Excitement plus?

https://www.politico.com/news/joe-biden-2020-presidential-election

[ASILurker]

Latest from https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

A two horse race?

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
30%

2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
24%

3
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
9%

4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
8%

5
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
7%

6
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
6%

7
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
4%

8
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
2%
Andrew Yang Business Person
2%

10
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
1%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
1%
Jay Inslee Governor
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%

[Klondike Kat]

I really expect a two-horse race.  The big question is how long the other candidates remain in the race, and how many delegates they retain.  I suspect most will drop out and throw their support to one or the other.  The party bosses wants to avoid a brokered convention, and may just push Biden over the top.

[Sciguy]

In April 2015, Sen. Rubio (FL) held a narrow lead over Gov. Jeb Bush (FL) and Gov. Scott Walker (WI) for the Republican nomination.  Walker dropped out before the primaries, Bush did nothing but had the money to hang around for a while, and Rubio waited until losing in Florida before dropping out.

So polls 8 to 9 months before the primaries begin aren't the best indicator of who's going to be the nominee.  It will be interesting to see how the candidates hold up as the debates begin and name recognition fades as the main factor separating candidates.

[Sciguy]

Here's an interesting article on how Sander's polling numbers compare to other candidates who had national name recognition from previous elections.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/

1.While Sanders is one of perhaps a dozen candidates with a plausible shot at the nomination, the field is fairly wide open, and it’s too early to say how formidable he is.
2.It’s also too early to conclude very much about Sanders’s “electability” against Trump, especially in comparison to other Democrats.
3.Finally, even if they wanted to stop Sanders, it’s too early for the party establishment to know how to go about doing that — without more input from rank-and-file voters, any move meant to hinder Sanders could backfire.

Each one of these claims could be the subject of a long post — so I just want to focus on the first one for today and leave the others for later.

To be clear, I think Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. He’s probably the 3rd- or 4th- most likely nominee, in my estimation — slightly behind Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and roughly tied with Pete Buttigieg, but ahead of everyone else. All of these candidates (and others such as Elizabeth Warren and Beto O’Rourke) have their own assets and liabilities, so I wouldn’t go to the mat if you put them in a different order.

But sometimes, I get the sense from Sanders backers — or from other election analysts who look at the polls a little differently than I do, or from traditional reporters — that they think Sanders’s strength in the polls is being ignored. Empirically, however, Sanders’s position in the polls is not all that strong; it’s consistent with sometimes winning the nomination but usually not.

Across the board, those numbers are well down from 2016 — when Sanders got 43 percent of the vote nationally, along with 50 percent in Iowa and 60 percent in New Hampshire.

You could take a glass-half-full view of this for Sanders, however. Sure, he isn’t getting as many votes as last time around, but you wouldn’t expect him to in a field that already includes 17 major candidates, rather than just Sanders and Hillary Clinton. And 20 percent or 30 percent of the vote could still be good enough for first place in the early states.

Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys don’t have a great track record.

The story goes on to list 15 candidates who had similar polling leading up to the primaries, and only three of them won the nomination, Obama, Romney and McCain.  Then it describes other factors that lead up to winning delegates for the nominating convention.

You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list — Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 — aren’t good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a “The Party Decides” standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.

[Steven]

Latest polls: Biden is far ahead of the others.  Sanders lost some ground.  Warren is now in third place and Buttigieg in fourth place.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/

Average results of the four polls released yesterday:

Biden      36%
Sanders  16%
Warren     9%
Buttigieg   7%
Harris        6%
O'Rourke   5%

[Klondike Kat]

I suspect that Biden will run away with the nomination.  There are many high up in the party that feel he is their best chance to unseat Trump, and will throw their weight behind him.

[Steven]

Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris did very well in the first Democratic debate(s).  Joe Biden underperformed.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

Among all 20 candidates, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro earned the highest scores for their debate performances relative to their favorability rating before they took the stage, according to the voters in our poll. Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker also rated well, but their scores were more in line with their pre-debate favorability.

[b_lumenkraft]

Biden in neutral? I'm laughing my ass off here.

Harris tarred and feathered him with works. And then he cried and lied.

Silver is so full of shit...

[Steven]

Several new polls have been released this week.  Biden is still clearly in first place but lost some ground.  The difference between 2nd and 4th place is quite small: Sanders, Harris and Warren are nearly tied in the polling average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

Average results of the 7 polls released between 30 June and 3 July:

Biden       28%
Sanders   15%
Harris       14%
Warren    13%
Buttigieg    5%
O'Rourke    2%

[b_lumenkraft]

Bidens supporter will jump the bandwagon faster than he can, so he will drop out soonish.

Leaves us with Sanders, Harris, and Warren.

The mainstream media will prop up Harris, that's for sure because she is the least progressive.

Of course, corporate America hates Sanders, so he will need any support. Go out there and ring some bells!

[Steven]

Warren has taken the lead in the RCP polling average: she's now slightly ahead of Biden.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Warren    27%
Biden       26%
Sanders   15%
Buttigieg    6%
Harris        4%
Yang          3%