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Author Topic: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?  (Read 53251 times)

sedziobs

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1200 on: February 12, 2020, 05:27:19 PM »
I still believe Bloomberg is the real establishment candidate to worry about. It will become clear one way or the other on Super Tuesday. He picked up his first polling lead today, with 20% in Arkansas.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1201 on: February 12, 2020, 06:56:11 PM »
blumenkraft, could you please translate the above?
A troll objects my countertrolling :)  Just reported Bannon liking Bernie.
Actually, I haven't been trollish, but their subconsciousness smelled something.

Now back to hacking away the fallen tree...

<OK, under moderation, now; N.>
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 11:38:50 PM by Neven »
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

Neven

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1202 on: February 12, 2020, 11:42:13 PM »
I still believe Bloomberg is the real establishment candidate to worry about. It will become clear one way or the other on Super Tuesday. He picked up his first polling lead today, with 20% in Arkansas.

After seeing this excellent interview with Lee Fang, earlier today, I think you may be right (unfortunately). Fast forward to the interview if you don't have the time, although Halper and Taibbi are absolutely wonderful as well:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Neven

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1203 on: February 13, 2020, 12:03:57 AM »
Wall Street Pete:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Florifulgurator

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1204 on: February 13, 2020, 04:20:50 AM »
<snip, no mainstream establishment narratives, and certainly no videos, thanks; N.>

--------------------------------
Bannon is quite obviously no stupid. He is the evil mastermind behind what gave us Trump. So, my hunch is: Bernie (or rather the Berners) will help Trump get reelected.  Bernie is an involuntary Trojan horse.

You could at least keep the Bill Maher Overtime video.  ;) ;D  If you can stand Jimmy Dore, you should be able to tolerate Bill Maher. (The other 2 videos were intended as documentation. If you are seriously interested in U.S. politics, you have to watch CNN and MSNBC occasionally. Like a Sovietologist had to read the Prawda. :) )

<snip, stop promoting the smear that Bernie and Trump are the same. And did I delete the Maher video? I still like Maher, he's funny, but he's also an out-of-touch millionnaire supporting establishment neoliberal narratives; N.>
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 08:49:20 AM by Neven »
Google image search on my avatar image gives "wood". In fact it is the lower part of David Hilbert's tombstone.

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1205 on: February 13, 2020, 07:31:58 AM »
The Kids Like Bernie. Maybe Everyone Else Should Listen.

Quote
On his way to winning the New Hampshire primary, Bernie Sanders got more votes from people under 30 than all other candidates combined.


Link >> https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a30892680/bernie-sanders-youth-vote-new-hampshire-primary/
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause

oren

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1206 on: February 13, 2020, 07:41:49 AM »
I just wish the youth would actually bother to vote in the same percentages as older people. US (and global) politics would be completely different.
A young person today, with a fucked-up future, full of pollution and debt and poor jobs and absurd cost of housing, education and healthcare, who does not vote (or does not vote for the right candidates) - I simply can't understand that.

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1207 on: February 13, 2020, 08:21:12 AM »
All hope is not lost yet, Oren.

Quote
Although overall turnout was flat during the Iowa caucuses, Shakir pointed to an uptick in voters under 30, even compared with 2008, which saw an overall record turnout in the state. That’s proof, Shakir says, that Sanders is generating enthusiasm among younger voters.

Link >> https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/#democratic-turnout-nears-2008-record-105
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1208 on: February 13, 2020, 09:19:50 AM »
Trigger warning! Link to nazi.

Tulsi is out of the clear. Richard Spencer turned his endorsement to Bloomberg.

Link >> https://twitter.com/RichardBSpencer/status/1227067004219084800
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause

Rob Dekker

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1209 on: February 14, 2020, 08:25:46 AM »
With the Democratic Primaries well on their way, and Bernie being the prime candidate at this time, there is one question I have for the Bernie-or-bust posters here (of which I know Neven is one) :

If Bernie ends up NOT being the Democratic candidate, would you vote Blue-no-matter-Who ? Or Trump ?
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

The Walrus

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1210 on: February 14, 2020, 12:51:11 PM »
All hope is not lost yet, Oren.

Quote
Although overall turnout was flat during the Iowa caucuses, Shakir pointed to an uptick in voters under 30, even compared with 2008, which saw an overall record turnout in the state. That’s proof, Shakir says, that Sanders is generating enthusiasm among younger voters.

Link >> https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/#democratic-turnout-nears-2008-record-105

Flat?  The turnout was disappointing low.  It was 25% lower than 2008.  The party was expecting a record turnout, anticipating up to 300k. Instead they got barely half that.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-caucuses-turnout-democrats.amp.html


Ktb

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1211 on: February 15, 2020, 04:43:37 AM »
Sure Iowa was low but New Hampshire had record turnout. We shall see which path the rest of the caucuses and primaries follow.

Hopefully Iowa was an exception, not the rule.
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sidd

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1212 on: February 16, 2020, 09:03:39 AM »
Medicare for All would save half a trillion US$/yr and 68K lives/yr : Lancet

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/15/sanders-applauds-new-medicare-all-study-will-save-americans-450-billion-and-prevent

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)33019-3

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)33019-3/fulltext

open access version (for the moment):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cOhhLqYigSfGJcDQYrU948jO6nxg75ib/view

Similar study at plos, open access:

doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003013

sidd

Ktb

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1213 on: February 16, 2020, 01:30:18 PM »
Can no longer find the source, but read that early voting in California is up 300k votes compared to the same number of days out from the primary in 2016. Tracking for record breaking primary voters. 2008 watch out.


And in other news: my dad is convinced that if it comes to Bernie vs Trump, Trump will win in a landslide similar to the Nixon vs McGovern 1972 election (60.7% of the popular vote and 49 states/520 electoral votes vs 37.5% of the popular vote and 1 state + DC/17 electoral votes). Thankfully, I wasn't drinking anything so I didn't spit water everywhere from laughing so hard.
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The Walrus

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1214 on: February 16, 2020, 02:16:18 PM »
Can no longer find the source, but read that early voting in California is up 300k votes compared to the same number of days out from the primary in 2016. Tracking for record breaking primary voters. 2008 watch out.


And in other news: my dad is convinced that if it comes to Bernie vs Trump, Trump will win in a landslide similar to the Nixon vs McGovern 1972 election (60.7% of the popular vote and 49 states/520 electoral votes vs 37.5% of the popular vote and 1 state + DC/17 electoral votes). Thankfully, I wasn't drinking anything so I didn't spit water everywhere from laughing so hard.

He is not the only one.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/09/democrats-mcgovern-1972-trump-nixon-2020-215687

However, I think it would be more the following:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/01/06/progressive-democrats-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren

Observer2019

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1215 on: Today at 09:57:03 AM »

And in other news: my dad is convinced that if it comes to Bernie vs Trump, Trump will win in a landslide similar to the Nixon vs McGovern 1972 election (60.7% of the popular vote and 49 states/520 electoral votes vs 37.5% of the popular vote and 1 state + DC/17 electoral votes). Thankfully, I wasn't drinking anything so I didn't spit water everywhere from laughing so hard.

I doubt Trump can get 60% but 50% - yes. Also a bigger e.c. win with 1-3 states more going red.
A Bernie nominee will bring out the young vote but at the same time will deter older dem centrists. I don't think that many will vote Trump but they could stay home.
« Last Edit: Today at 10:42:11 AM by Observer2019 »

Neven

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1216 on: Today at 11:48:15 AM »
With the Democratic Primaries well on their way, and Bernie being the prime candidate at this time, there is one question I have for the Bernie-or-bust posters here (of which I know Neven is one) :

If Bernie ends up NOT being the Democratic candidate, would you vote Blue-no-matter-Who ? Or Trump ?

If I were American and I lived in a non-swing state, I'd vote third party or not at all. If I lived in a swing state, it would depend on the Democratic candidate. I probably would vote for Warren as the lesser evil choice, but not for Biden, Klobuchar, Wall Street Pete, Bloomberg, etc. Or maybe I would vote third party as well. I would never vote for Trump, not even out of strategic considerations (so that populism on the left grows strong enough to eliminate Corporate Democrats, which is the only silver lining to the Trump presidency).

Problems are systemic. Voting Blue-no-matter-who doesn't bring systemic changes, but only reinforces the status quo. It's a really stupid (and immoral) thing to do, unless you're not really serious about things like AGW. Only Sanders offers a potential way forward, nobody else.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1217 on: Today at 11:50:25 AM »
at the same time will deter older dem centrists

For how i see it, the average Dem centrist voter is rather agnostic about the candidate. They just want to vote against Taliban Trump in 2020.

This whole attempt to discredit Sanders by calling him a socialist isn't sticking anymore. Reps said that about Obama too. This is a toothless tiger...
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Observer2019

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1218 on: Today at 01:08:27 PM »


For how i see it, the average Dem centrist voter is rather agnostic about the candidate. They just want to vote against Taliban Trump in 2020.



Of course some are, even most BUT it doesn't take many. Trump won a few swing states by a very small amount of votes ( less than 100K I think) and he was close in a few other states. In 2016 a small amount of "never hillary" Bernie supporters could have made the difference. I also see quite a bit of infighting between the candidates more fervent base in the same manner as 2016.

blumenkraft

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Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« Reply #1219 on: Today at 03:21:06 PM »
I agree with the points you are making, Observer. But it's the same math that makes me think Bernie is more likely to activate non-voters and therefore tip the 50/50 thingy in the right direction. Young folks, independents, minorities, ... at the end, he speaks to the 99%.
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause