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Author Topic: Basic questions about melting physics  (Read 16822 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #100 on: September 02, 2019, 07:27:09 PM »
Hence, they is little agreement.

Totally agree to disagree. :)
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petm

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #101 on: September 02, 2019, 07:35:11 PM »
Are you talking about rolling 1 six after having rolled five sixes already, or rolling 6 sixes after having rolled none? Completely different questions.

Also, wtf?  ??? ;D

crandles

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #102 on: September 02, 2019, 07:39:28 PM »


Quote
To know whether or not those indicated changes are real or just the impression given by random noise, a good way is to apply changepoint analysis. That confirms that these changes are indeed real, and gives the following “continuous piecewise linear” model of the anomalies.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/07/17/arctic-heat/

Seems like Tamino confirmed it was real/statistically significant back in 2016?

We are rather off topic lets move this to https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348
(When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?)
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 09:41:44 PM by crandles »

petm

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #103 on: September 03, 2019, 12:55:29 AM »
There is a brief discussion of latent heat fluxes (which are clearly well understood by climate scientists) mentioned up-thread in part 2 of this video (@~7 min). The whole video is well worth watching, as are all of the channel's videos. Solid, current climate science explained well in laymen's terms.



PS. Should I move this to a different thread, and where?

Klondike Kat

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #104 on: September 03, 2019, 03:56:31 AM »
Thanks crandles.  Will do.

nanning

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binntho

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #106 on: September 03, 2019, 07:58:49 AM »
binntho, you have me mixed up with crandles. It was his/her find and posts:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2709.msg226369.html#msg226369
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg226396.html#msg226396

You are quite right nanning - my mistake, I've corrected it in the post above. Thanks!

EDIT: I've moved the post to the "When will the Arctic go Ice Free" thread as suggested by Crandles. Seems like I'm just now waking up, after 2 hours of hectic activity!

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg226465.html#msg226465
« Last Edit: September 03, 2019, 08:06:12 AM by binntho »
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Feeltheburn

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Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« Reply #107 on: September 23, 2019, 09:33:23 AM »
Felltheburn,

To some extent, you are thinking along the right lines. Alternatively, you are messing up some of the basic physics.

As long as we are in the Tropics, everything is honkydory. Most physical processes take place well above 0C (or 273K). It is when you start using calories and F, your problems begin.

When in the Sub-tropics, some of the precipitation comes down as hail. In recent years, we have seen an increasing hail diameter and more devastating hailstorms spreading north. This may be a sign of the kind of physics you focus on. More evaporative cooling in combination with more humid air should eventually lead to bigger hail, if condensation nuclei are present.

Moving to Mid-latitudes, we begin to have the change-over from freezing rain to warm rain. Apparently, you have forgot to include the temperature of the falling rain. All heat evaporated is not simply sent out to outer space. Some of it will return to Earth as a mild, warm rain, where you would even enjoy getting your underpants wet from time to time.

Now, finally to the physical processes in the Arctic. Your idea that all evaporative cooling will eventually leave the Arctic cold and the World in thermal balance (had it not been for the wicked ocean heat storage), is simply wrong. The moisture advected from southerly latitudes (as well as the minor part of the moisture evaporated from open Arctic waters), will eventually have to come down again as either rain (above 0C), or as snow. In the latter case, we may see the opposite of "sublimation" - that is water vapour going directly into the frozen phase - which of course releases a lot more energy, than just converting water vapour directly into rain.

In the presence of cloud condensation nuclei, we will see hailstorms spreading north, and we will see rain and showers entering the Arctic during winter. What we have not seen yet, is the physical reaction from/to a clean - basically CCN-free - Arctic atmosphere. My guess would be that initially, we will see ice pellets, but eventually we will see drizzle as the Arctic temperatures during winter goes above 0C.

Sitting in Svalbard through the dark "drizzle season" is no great joy I would presume. Maybe it will be a great time to reflect on the basic physics of our time.

Cheers P

Thank you for your thoughtful response. Just trying to understand processes that no doubt affect weather, which is dynamic, but which may not be well accounted for in the climate models.
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