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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #100 on: March 14, 2019, 11:04:11 AM »
minor blip .. b.c.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #101 on: March 15, 2019, 09:40:55 AM »
Another modest extent decline today:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #102 on: March 15, 2019, 10:12:55 PM »
Another modest extent decline today:

Confirmed by the recently returned JAXA:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #103 on: March 16, 2019, 10:02:40 AM »
This thread should be made sticky instead of the freezing season thread.
And that is my final call.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #104 on: March 16, 2019, 01:39:26 PM »
Arctic sea ice extent continues to decline:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-16

Meanwhile a look at freezing degree days based on the DMI's dubiously weighted data for north of 80 degrees reveals the story of the freezing season. A historically warm start, but now back in amongst the pack of the 2010s:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #105 on: March 16, 2019, 02:12:19 PM »
This thread should be made sticky instead of the freezing season thread.
And that is my final call.

Yes, it is probably time.

Nonetheless, the change from freezing season to melting season is always gradual and is a sort of "sideways season" or "topping out season". This period always takes many weeks and arguing about whether we have already hit the top or not is quite pointless in my view. Extent is topping out but it is a drawn out process - drawing lines in the sand is an exercise in futility...

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #106 on: March 16, 2019, 03:21:07 PM »
This thread should be made sticky instead of the freezing season thread.
And that is my final call.

One more JAXA SIE drop tomorrow, and I'll make it happen.  :)
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #107 on: March 16, 2019, 08:45:58 PM »
Does anyone have a graph that compares the overall average Arctic winter temperatures year to year?

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #108 on: March 16, 2019, 09:14:50 PM »
Does anyone have a graph that compares the overall average Arctic winter temperatures year to year?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #109 on: March 16, 2019, 09:33:06 PM »
Does anyone have a graph that compares the overall average Arctic winter temperatures year to year?

I just happen to have one, cci/giss data, 70-90N, the first one is dec-jan -feb, the second is oct to feb

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #110 on: March 17, 2019, 02:09:16 AM »
This thread should be made sticky instead of the freezing season thread.
And that is my final call.

Yep.

And honestly, I really dislike having 2 threads open at once.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #111 on: March 17, 2019, 05:40:36 AM »
The ice front off Newfoundland has made remarkable progress south. It is hardly consistent but I believe these tendrils may be the furthest south in the satellite record by a wide margin. I wonder if we can beat this in 2019-20 as SSTs are VERY low and the "cool pool" seems to have decided to rendezvous with North America this year instead of remaining out in the NATL.



This will all melt soon, of course. 2019's #s are currently inflated by absurd southerly ice extent in the St. Lawrence and Okhotsk.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #112 on: March 17, 2019, 09:50:11 AM »
One more JAXA SIE drop tomorrow, and I'll make it happen.  :)

Here you go Neven:
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 09:55:42 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #113 on: March 17, 2019, 11:37:43 AM »
This will all melt soon, of course. 2019's #s are currently inflated by absurd southerly ice extent in the St. Lawrence and Okhotsk.

High this year, but by no means unprecedented:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #114 on: March 17, 2019, 11:52:56 AM »
It seems to me that as the Bering and the Atlantic freezes later and later this allows us to have frequent warm intrusions (even up to the North Pole - as we remember from the past years). These intrusions "push" the cold air out of the Arctic and this leads to more ice in the Okhotsk and colder/icy weather in Quebec. So it seems that what we observe in the Okhotsk/St.Lawrence area is the obvious (in hindsight of course :) consequence of Arctic warming.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #115 on: March 17, 2019, 12:03:27 PM »
This will all melt soon, of course. 2019's #s are currently inflated by absurd southerly ice extent in the St. Lawrence and Okhotsk.

High this year, but by no means unprecedented:
I didn't mean the entirety of these areas, just the lone Newfoundland tendril in its southerly extent down to below 45N, which is pretty crazy! Although it is very limited in scope, it is still wayyyyy south of normal (and will likely melt out very soon).

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #116 on: March 17, 2019, 12:36:24 PM »
This thread should be made sticky instead of the freezing season thread.
And that is my final call.

One more JAXA SIE drop tomorrow, and I'll make it happen.  :)
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #117 on: March 17, 2019, 12:51:33 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/  ice surface temperature for the last freezing season (for reference)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #118 on: March 17, 2019, 02:21:43 PM »
It seems to me that as the Bering and the Atlantic freezes later and later this allows us to have frequent warm intrusions (even up to the North Pole - as we remember from the past years). These intrusions "push" the cold air out of the Arctic and this leads to more ice in the Okhotsk and colder/icy weather in Quebec. So it seems that what we observe in the Okhotsk/St.Lawrence area is the obvious (in hindsight of course :) consequence of Arctic warming.

I think you make a valid observation El Cid!

On top of what you say I'll add my own obs. This past winter I was more than surprised to see the Polar night Jet set up in 'orderly fashion' ( compared to ther last decade or so with its 'dumbbell shapes and splits?) and keep a steady vortex even with the late Dec/early Jan split/warming?

It is still powering away right now as we approach its 'final warming'.

In past years the wobbly PNJ picked out where our 'polar plunges' were occuring? This time it appears the full thickness of the atmosphere pushed these plunges out regardless of the PNJ's 'corralling' ?

Like an erupting zit it burst through the confides of the PNJ.

I started the refreeze head scratching at how well behaved the PNJ was being. I end refreeze thinking that the PNJ's 'influence' is now overpowered by the atmosphere's own volatility and no matter how hard it tries it can no longer be relied upon to keep the cold inside it and the warm outside it?
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #119 on: March 17, 2019, 03:28:50 PM »
ReverendMilkbone, El Cid.

Thanks. these are useful.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #120 on: March 17, 2019, 03:31:29 PM »
A couple of images from "Snow White's" new Arctic Webcams page.

There's not a lot of melting required on the west coast of Svalbard!



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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #121 on: March 17, 2019, 06:17:03 PM »
DMI (sep24-mar15) and PIOMAS (sep24-feb28) thickness models for last freezing season for reference.
Both models suggesting that the area north of FJL/Svalbard is weak for some distance. It does look a bit 'crazy paving' in viirs, brightness temperature(band15)night  https://go.nasa.gov/2JlnwY8

added cryosat 28day, feb13-mar13 for comparison.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 09:28:41 PM by uniquorn »

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #122 on: March 17, 2019, 07:44:39 PM »
This will all melt soon, of course. 2019's #s are currently inflated by absurd southerly ice extent in the St. Lawrence and Okhotsk.

High this year, but by no means unprecedented:
And if anything, a trend up over the last few years.

I think the Okhotsk, St. Lawrence, Labrador and Baffin (and to a lesser degree, Greenland) regions will all be beneficiaries of increasing instability of winter polar circulation.

Over all, while they may create the appearance of modestly stable winter maximum extents, they in fact represent the export of both ice and cold air out of the regions that most need to retain them.

Volatility in the system is increasing rapidly.
This space for Rent.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #123 on: March 17, 2019, 10:24:15 PM »
The ice front off Newfoundland has made remarkable progress south. It is hardly consistent but I believe these tendrils may be the furthest south in the satellite record by a wide margin.
Pretty close to 2014 and 2015 on amsr2 so far. I'll let you confirm with worldview(geographic maybe?)  :)
amsr2, newfoundland, mar2013-2019
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 10:31:16 PM by uniquorn »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #124 on: March 18, 2019, 02:22:50 AM »
The ice front off Newfoundland has made remarkable progress south. It is hardly consistent but I believe these tendrils may be the furthest south in the satellite record by a wide margin.
Pretty close to 2014 and 2015 on amsr2 so far. I'll let you confirm with worldview(geographic maybe?)  :)
amsr2, newfoundland, mar2013-2019
I am talking about the lone tendril that has drifted down to below 45N. The overall extent in the region is similar to previous years but there is now a southerly tendril that is well into the NATL shipping lanes.

The Canuck ice maps are more illustrative but you can see this on EOSDIS as well. It looks like it is breaking up at this point which is hardly surprising considering how far south it is.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #125 on: March 18, 2019, 09:05:12 AM »
Arctic sea ice area is finally following extent’s recent decline in no uncertain terms:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-17

Barring exceedingly unforeseen circumstances after this year's "double top" that leaves the 2019 Arctic sea ice maximum extent numbers as follows:

UH/Wipneus AMSR2 - 13.89 million square kilometres on March 12th
JAXA/VISHOP AMSR2 - 14.27 million square kilometres on March 12th
NSIDC 5 day SSMIS - 14.78 million square kilometres on March 13th
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 10:18:46 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #126 on: March 18, 2019, 10:34:54 AM »
The Canuck ice maps are more illustrative

Like this one you mean?

« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 10:45:08 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #127 on: March 18, 2019, 12:38:31 PM »
The Canuck ice maps are more illustrative

Like this one you mean?
Exactly, the ice is two degrees south of 2015's phenomenal extent.  ;)

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #128 on: March 18, 2019, 12:43:00 PM »
Thank you both. Agreed, the tendrils are further south, maybe 200km. SST must be cooler or surface salinity fresher there. Perhaps as a result of all the MYI in the CAA last season?
edit: Concentration is a lot lower this year though.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 12:54:21 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #129 on: March 18, 2019, 01:18:13 PM »
Exactly, the ice is two degrees south of 2015's phenomenal extent.  ;)

It was much more substantial in 2015 though!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #130 on: March 18, 2019, 01:31:57 PM »
Exactly, the ice is two degrees south of 2015's phenomenal extent.  ;)

It was much more substantial in 2015 though!
I didn't say it wasn't? My point wasn't on overall extent it was the ridiculous tendril that has made it to 44N. You are picking an absurd fight here for no reason.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #131 on: March 18, 2019, 01:41:05 PM »
Thank you both. Agreed, the tendrils are further south, maybe 200km. SST must be cooler or surface salinity fresher there. Perhaps as a result of all the MYI in the CAA last season?
edit: Concentration is a lot lower this year though.
I think there may have been some misbehavior from the Beaufort Gyre last summer which may have contributed to this. The SST gradient south of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia is substantially further S this year than in 2015 (and any other recent year).





At the same time, the area of mixing east of Newfoundland actually appears to be N of 2015. It looks like the SST changes also correspond to a substantial drop in salinity in the same region. While there have been consistent drops on the Scotian Shelf and the Grand Banks, it appears the largest change in 2019 has been on George's Bank, which has seen salinity drop 10% year over year (it has been fairly consistent until this year).





Besides the Beaufort Gyre's possible involvement it appears as though much of the NATL east of this gradient is substantially saltier than four years ago. Perhaps as the volume of warm water heading east / northeast increases, more of the freshwater input from Baffin / up north is kept closer to the continental shelf and the NE seaboard of North America? I don't know exactly what is going on but this is a pretty big change for a relatively low-latitude area that is bound to have significant impacts on sensible weather for both Eastern North America and Western Europe.

I would think the changes since 2015 (and year over year) may portend an impending summer that is even warmer than 2018 was over much of Europe.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 01:48:36 PM by bbr2314 »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #132 on: March 18, 2019, 01:46:16 PM »
I didn't want to be alarmist and mention the Beaufort Gyre  ;)

bbr your image links are broken for me.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #133 on: March 18, 2019, 01:49:54 PM »
I didn't want to be alarmist and mention the Beaufort Gyre  ;)

bbr your image links are broken for me.
Alas! Go here and compare dates. Feel free to upload the screengrabs. :)

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

Also found the ATL sector:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/glfstr.html

Attaching actual files for 2019, 2019, and 2015. There has definitely been a push this year.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 02:13:15 PM by bbr2314 »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #134 on: March 18, 2019, 02:20:56 PM »
Antivirus didn't like the certificate.
Interesting. I don't look that far south very often.
edit:For those with limited 2d spatial recognition, myself included, here is hycom gulfstream sst 2015-2019 mar17(or closest date). Will compare with mercator later.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 02:45:59 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #135 on: March 18, 2019, 03:00:48 PM »
You are picking an absurd fight here for no reason.

I'm not picking any sort of a fight.

I am however implying that the 2019 melting season is likely to progress more rapidly in this vicinity than in 2015.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #136 on: March 18, 2019, 03:02:07 PM »
You are picking an absurd fight here for no reason.

I'm not picking any sort of a fight.

I am however implying that the 2019 melting season is likely to progress more rapidly in this vicinity than in 2015.
OK :)

And I agree!

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #137 on: March 18, 2019, 05:29:53 PM »
While some ice may have strayed further south into the Atlantic than is typical, the ice in the Baffin Newfoundland Bay region is historically low, as compared to recent years.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #138 on: March 18, 2019, 05:41:33 PM »
Both the Labrador current and the Gulf Stream are amped up this year. The lowest sea surface heights are in the Labrador sea, and SSH levels are higher pretty much everywhere else in the N Atlantic than they were just a few years back.

The images below tell part of the SSH story, but day to day comparisons of SSH may be affected by air pressure differences and differences in winds that may push SSH levels up along shorelines. However, it appears that the Beaufort gyre has lost fresh water volume and that deep convection is pretty strong in the Labrador sea this winter. That's consistent with intensification of the Gulf Stream and the Labrador current and with this winter's weather.



FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #139 on: March 18, 2019, 06:21:37 PM »
Wind anomalies have been impressive for the past 30 days. The southerly flow from the north Pacific through the Bering strait into the Arctic seas has been intense.  Stronger than normal northwest winds have driven ice down the western side of Baffin bay and the Labrador sea. These crazy winds have even cause a large build up of heat in the western Pacific offshore of Japan.

Stronger than normal NW winds in the Labrador sea this late winter is a continuation of a pattern we saw late last winter and spring when there was a strong atmospheric vortex around Greenland. This pattern causes larger than normal amounts of fresh water flow out of the CAA into the Labrador sea.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #140 on: March 18, 2019, 06:31:35 PM »
Both the Labrador current and the Gulf Stream are amped up this year. The lowest sea surface heights are in the Labrador sea, and SSH levels are higher pretty much everywhere else in the N Atlantic than they were just a few years back.

The images below tell part of the SSH story, but day to day comparisons of SSH may be affected by air pressure differences and differences in winds that may push SSH levels up along shorelines. However, it appears that the Beaufort gyre has lost fresh water volume and that deep convection is pretty strong in the Labrador sea this winter. That's consistent with intensification of the Gulf Stream and the Labrador current and with this winter's weather.

Many here talk about the ongoing Atlantification of the Barents. Looking at those images, it suggests that the long term effects of global warming could be the Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #141 on: March 19, 2019, 12:44:48 AM »
<snippage>
Stronger than normal NW winds in the Labrador sea this late winter is a continuation of a pattern we saw late last winter and spring when there was a strong atmospheric vortex around Greenland. This pattern causes larger than normal amounts of fresh water flow out of the CAA into the Labrador sea.
hmmm. It must be significantly larger than normal to let thin ice travel 200km further south.

Or perhaps just a one off fluke?
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 12:55:26 AM by uniquorn »