The 2019 melting season

[b_lumenkraft]

Don't you dare using logic as an argument here ever again. Obviously, you don't understand the concept.

I am disappointed that this is an acceptable way to communicate for intelligent people here. it reads as putting someone down, a new curious member in this case. Is it an effect of adult (academic) hierarchical groupbehaviour?
No offence intended (if you can find any). Sorry to be off-topic.

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but to get this straight, HelloMeteor called people assholes, who answered their question in good faith and correctly. Getting backlash for this kind of behaviour is normal in any social situation, not hierarchical group behaviour.

[Bugalugs]

Newb here, first post.

Re Aluminium's GIF ... is that a hole forming above the pole?

If so, has there ever been a major hole before?

[wdmn]

May 21-25.

If I'm getting my seas right, the Kara looks like it's about to go into free fall.

[bluice]

[Isn’t there a meta-topic somewhere?]

To get back to topic, right now the big question is how long will HP stay on top of the CAB. We are still one month from the solstice but insolation curve is extremely steep near the pole. There will be a lot more solar energy every day.

[Rich]

As always...these gifs from Aluminum are awesome.

That new crack where the Chuchki meets Russia is quite an interesting development.

There also a little incursion from the Alaskan side of the Chuchki toward the Beaufort.

As a new customer here, I'm gaining more appreciation for the way these processes sometimes progress in an irregular fashion. Two steps forward, one step back.

[oren]

May 21-25.

On top of other comments, it seems like the Beaufort expanded and solidified, almost as if a refreeze was going on. I would say it's probably a removal of the effect of clouds on the sensor, or a freezing of surface meltwater on the ice, but would like to hear more expert opinions.

[Neven]

[Isn’t there a meta-topic somewhere?]

More than one!

That was some nice arguing to wake up to, but I think the melting season is a lot more interesting, especially now. So, let's stay on-topic. And HelloMeteor, leave the politics out, please. There's a special (and awful) segment on this forum for that, called The Rest.

Newb here, first post.

Re Aluminium's GIF ... is that a hole forming above the pole?

Could be, but it can also be something throwing off the satellite sensor. My rule of thumb is to use the false colour version of the Uni Bremen Sea Ice Concentration map, and if there is yellow/pink/green for more than 3-4 days in a row, it's probably real.

If so, has there ever been a major hole before?

I vaguely remember something about a (smallish) hole showing up in that location two years in a row, some time ago. But what is more common, is what we refer to here as the Laptev Bite, ie open water reaching towards the Pole.

It's difficult for holes to pop up in the middle of the ice pack at this time of year, because ice floes are very mobile and usually cover the open water again, as soon as the winds turn. But it may happen due to upwelling of warmer currents.

[Neven]

Removed a couple of comments. If it's difficult to quit, I can help with that. Next step is moderation/ban.

[HelloMeteor]

Removed a couple of comments. If it's difficult to quit, I can help with that. Next step is moderation/ban.

Wouldn't want free thought or anything.

<Alrighty then, you're on moderation. This has nothing to do with free thought, but rather with the most interesting thread on this forum getting derailed; N.>

[be cause]

and back to the weather up north .. and in reply to JDAllen's reply to me .. can you , or anyone , provide any references re ice floe size and side melt ?
   My observations are that the fracture form being taken is pretty fractal this year .. and I would suggest that already in areas like 83N 130W a large proportion of the floes are under 150m ...
   I assume that these zones appear darker on Worldview because less light is escaping .. am I right ?
   If so it is busy working out of sight ..
 
Please please put my concerns to rest .. I am convinced that in increasingly large parts of the Arctic basin the angle of sun and floe size will play a measurable and perhaps unexpectedly important part in the outcome this season .. b.c.

ps . same devastating scene across the pole at @ 83N 130E  Worth looking at both spots on Worldview on the 20th  .

 I repost my post as it is lost among the detritus of the Hellometeor debacle as is the melt season thread .. b.c.

[bbr2314]

<snip>
Neven, can you please delete all the HelloMeteor posts, they ruined the past page even with all the moderation you have done. If someone doesn't want to educate themselves on basic terminology they have no business posting here (and it means they haven't bothered reading anything before posting either). Feel free to delete this post as well. 

<No, I'm not deleting any more posts, but I am considering buying you a course on 'how do I only quote the parts I'm commenting instead of the whole goddamn exchange'; N.>

[meddoc]

Time to delete Newbies' Posts- and even some new Users.
They mess this Forum up by throwing up BS & Ranting.

<And pray tell, how is this comment not part of the 'BS & Ranting'? Be careful, you only have 234 posts; N.>

[Jim Hunt]

<snip. Sorry, Jim, but this discussion is behind us; N.>

Getting back to the 2019 melting season, did you know that back in April some adventurous Russians planted a Polar Surface Velocity Program buoy near the North Pole? This is what happened next:

[Neven]

The ECMWF forecast hasn't changed much. The only good thing about it, is that the huge high pressure area isn't partnering up with a big low over Siberia (in other words a Dipole), as that would cause huge movement. As it is, there will be some movement, (maybe enough to move the ice blockade past Utqiagvik to resolve our poll?), but lots of insolation. I though there would be big drops after the weekend, but maybe all of this energy will go into melting momentum and not be felt until later in the melting season.

[bbr2314]

The ECMWF forecast hasn't changed much.

I feel like the ECMWF keeps oscillating between "very warm" at its 12z forecasts and "warm" at its 00z forecasts. Maybe this is just me, but it seems to be a noticeable trend the past few weeks, and I wonder if there is a logical explanation or if I am just imagining this.

[Jim Hunt]

Newb here, first post.

Re Aluminium's GIF ... is that a hole forming above the pole?

Could be, but it can also be something throwing off the satellite sensor. My rule of thumb is to use the false colour version of the Uni Bremen Sea Ice Concentration map, and if there is yellow/pink/green for more than 3-4 days in a row, it's probably real.

My rule of thumb is to check out Worldview and/or Polarview to see if I can find a clear image. I believe this one covers the area in question?

P.S. Plus another one from yesterday.

[Sterks]

From Worldview I notice surface melt has started at the ESS coast and the ES snow must be very surface-wet as the 7-6-3 shows it bloody red.
These are non-googleable non-scientific observations.

[Jim Hunt]

If so, has there ever been a major hole before?

There was a big one in August 2017:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#Aug-10

[uniquorn]

< it seems like the Beaufort expanded and solidified, almost as if a refreeze was going on. I would say it's probably a removal of the effect of clouds on the sensor, or a freezing of surface meltwater on the ice, but would like to hear more expert opinions.>

I'm no expert but with air temperatures mostly above zero and a quick look at worldview I wouldn't suggest freezing
worldview, aqua modis, beaufort to fram, may25

[oren]

Thank you Neven for both moderation and forecast. For me the HP screams pushing the ice into Fram, besides the clear skies/insolation factor. Hope I'm wrong. I wonder if PIOMAS captures any abnormal drops this month - normally it reacts to ice area loss more than to other factors.

[sark]

[Isn’t there a meta-topic somewhere?]

To get back to topic, right now the big question is how long will HP stay on top of the CAB. We are still one month from the solstice but insolation curve is extremely steep near the pole. There will be a lot more solar energy every day.

I don't see a change in pattern until June 15 with a couple fragments of low returning to the Arctic via Greenland.  The Kara is going to get blowtorched June 2-9.  At the same time, ridging from the Pacific will reach into the Beaufort but a little closer to CAA and not as emphatic.  I think this next incursion will NOT be as strong or deliver such a pinched off anticyclone of the jet stream, like the current incursion has.

I still think we will enter summer in wave 5. 

[JayW]

May 21-25.

On top of other comments, it seems like the Beaufort expanded and solidified, almost as if a refreeze was going on. I would say it's probably a removal of the effect of clouds on the sensor, or a freezing of surface meltwater on the ice, but would like to hear more expert opinions.

Not an expert here, but I'd say it's a result of the cyclone that moved through the region.  It finally reversed the persistent easterlies that dominated the Beaufort for a week or so, and pushed sea ice back to the southeast.  I'm sure that the storm brought precipitation, and some wet snow can't be totally ruled out, in my humble opinion.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=2&im=42&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_m07&x=16668&y=18760

[Dharma Rupa]

If the public never "gets it", it's precisely because people acting like you.

This discussion belongs elsewhere.  May I suggest "Stupid Questions"?

I, for one, have no interest in helping the public get it.  I'm here to watch the ice melt.

[Rich]

May 21-25.

On top of other comments, it seems like the Beaufort expanded and solidified, almost as if a refreeze was going on. I would say it's probably a removal of the effect of clouds on the sensor, or a freezing of surface meltwater on the ice, but would like to hear more expert opinions.

Not an expert here, but I'd say it's a result of the cyclone that moved through the region.  It finally reversed the persistent easterlies that dominated the Beaufort for a week or so, and pushed sea ice back to the southeast.  I'm sure that the storm brought precipitation, and some wet snow can't be totally ruled out, in my humble opinion.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=2&im=42&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_m07&x=16668&y=18760

Thanks for sharing the cyclone gif Jay. That certainly helps explain some other observations.

[bluice]

and back to the weather up north .. and in reply to JDAllen's reply to me .. can you , or anyone , provide any references re ice floe size and side melt ?
   My observations are that the fracture form being taken is pretty fractal this year .. and I would suggest that already in areas like 83N 130W a large proportion of the floes are under 150m ...
   I assume that these zones appear darker on Worldview because less light is escaping .. am I right ?
   If so it is busy working out of sight ..
 
Please please put my concerns to rest .. I am convinced that in increasingly large parts of the Arctic basin the angle of sun and floe size will play a measurable and perhaps unexpectedly important part in the outcome this season .. b.c.

ps . same devastating scene across the pole at @ 83N 130E  Worth looking at both spots on Worldview on the 20th  .

Considering above, in Jim Hunt's recent satellite pictures there are darker areas which based on the shadowing are some sort of elevations, probably snow or ice formations. Especially the east-west ones create south facing slopes that get a lot of solar radiation.

I've never been to high Arctic, but my late winter / early spring experiences from somewhat lower latitudes tell me that such south facing sunny pockets can get suprisingly warm especially if protected from wind, even when ambient temperature is sub zero.

[b_lumenkraft]

Considering above, in Jim Hunt's recent satellite pictures there are darker areas which based on the shadowing are some sort of elevations, probably snow or ice formations. Especially the east-west ones create south facing slopes that get a lot of solar radiation.

If we mean the same thing, i think those are clouds, not structures in the ice.

[JayW]

Dove-tailing with the melt pond and snow cover discussion, here's a couple of screen grabs of the snow cover model from Climate Reanalyzer; the first is today, the second is for June 1st.

The takeaway is, GFS predicts snow cover over the next 6 days will be hammered, seriously.

A lot of that melt - 6-10CM worth - will be on the snowpack in the CAB.

I'm wary of the *raw* GFS data and its handling of snowmelt, especially on the ice.  The GFS is not coupled to sea ice, and also has issues dealing with boundary layer (the part that interacts with earth's surface) temperatures.

First attachment
The plots provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ , which are forced by the GFS forecast, but with a markedly different result. Note that the upper right panel, "GFS ice area", remains unchanged through the 7 day forecast, as its un-coupled"

Second attachment (Requires a click) is the 10 day sea ice forecast from the ECMWF, available at https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole-zoom1/ice-ocean-lake/20190605-0000z.html , this is a coupled model.

[bluice]

Considering above, in Jim Hunt's recent satellite pictures there are darker areas which based on the shadowing are some sort of elevations, probably snow or ice formations. Especially the east-west ones create south facing slopes that get a lot of solar radiation.

If we mean the same thing, i think those are clouds, not structures in the ice.

Yes there are clouds but I think there are surface structures also. Of course I may be mistaken.

I’m on the phone so cannot make a picture of it.

[b_lumenkraft]

Bluice, there is a trick i use when i'm unsure if something on Worldview is ice or cloud.

Just add Ice Surface Temperature and switch between the layers. If it stays white, it's likely a cloud.

(Click GIF to play)

Edit: I screwed up the GIF. I'm not comparing the same satellite there (doh!), but you get the idea.

[gerontocrat]

May 21-25.

On top of other comments, it seems like the Beaufort expanded and solidified, almost as if a refreeze was going on. I would say it's probably a removal of the effect of clouds on the sensor, or a freezing of surface meltwater on the ice, but would like to hear more expert opinions.

And one gets a different idea looking at the area graph - which would make one think it was strong and consistent decline.

[iceman]

Removed a couple of comments. If it's difficult to quit, I can help with that. Next step is moderation/ban.

Thank you for pollution remediation.

[Jim Hunt]

I'd say it's a result of the cyclone that moved through the region.

Quite so. As predicted by the US Navy (GOFS 3.1 with NAVGEM forcing), amongst others:

[ajouis]

I haven t seen the university of Bremen/ asmr2 general area and extent pop up in a while.
I do think they are very useful as they have a thinner grid, does anyone have the most recent iteration and/or where I can find it?

[Jim Hunt]

Just add Ice Surface Temperature and switch between the layers. If it stays white, it's likely a cloud.

Have you tried the Terra 3-6-7 layer? This is the same scene as my pole piccie above.

The darker red patch near top centre may be what AMSR2 is picking up?

[b_lumenkraft]

Have you tried the Terra 3-6-7 layer?

Not bad Jim, not bad at all! Thank you.

[petm]

May 21-25.

The whole Siberian side is starting to shred.

[b_lumenkraft]

The arch in the Kara Sea, which is formed due to an upwelling of Atlantic waters (i think, correct me if i'm wrong please), is getting bigger and is developing a crack towards the west.

This GIF showing a comparison yesterday vs. today.

[oren]

May 21-25.

On top of other comments, it seems like the Beaufort expanded and solidified, almost as if a refreeze was going on. I would say it's probably a removal of the effect of clouds on the sensor, or a freezing of surface meltwater on the ice, but would like to hear more expert opinions.

And one gets a different idea looking at the area graph - which would make one think it was strong and consistent decline.

This is not surprising considering one is looking at a 5-day trailing average, and of a coarse-resolution sensor to boot.
Jim Hunt's daily AMSR2 area chart shows the uptick nicely.

[Neven]

I haven t seen the university of Bremen/ asmr2 general area and extent pop up in a while.
I do think they are very useful as they have a thinner grid, does anyone have the most recent iteration and/or where I can find it?

I don't know where specifically, but it should be somewhere on this page from Wipneus' website.

[Sterks]

The ECMWF forecast hasn't changed much. The only good thing about it, is that the huge high pressure area isn't partnering up with a big low over Siberia (in other words a Dipole), as that would cause huge movement. As it is, there will be some movement, (maybe enough to move the ice blockade past Utqiagvik to resolve our poll?), but lots of insolation. I though there would be big drops after the weekend, but maybe all of this energy will go into melting momentum and not be felt until later in the melting season.

The forecast is quite warm from May 28 to end of the month, but beyond that the big HP seems to become dull not pulling warmth. Its “subsidence” also subsides. And the sun if really open skies, will hit the whitest of the CAB. Not sure there will be an area cliff, at least this early... but should see steady drops in extent for sure

[Jim Hunt]

I haven t seen the university of Bremen/ asmr2 general area and extent pop up in a while.
I do think they are very useful as they have a thinner grid, does anyone have the most recent iteration and/or where I can find it?

I think you may be confusing Bremen with Hamburg? Bremen AMSR2 extent is at:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

Here's also is my closeup of Wipneus' data based on Hamburg Uni's 3.125 km gridded AMSR2 concentration:

[oren]

I haven t seen the university of Bremen/ asmr2 general area and extent pop up in a while.
I do think they are very useful as they have a thinner grid, does anyone have the most recent iteration and/or where I can find it?

Welcome ajouis. I use these bookmarks regularly:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-area-multiprod.png
Extent and area for the Arctic Basin itself, for 3 algorithms with different grid sizes.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
This is the regional AMSR2 extent and area by Wipneus, based on the University of Hamburg algorithm with a 3.125 k grid. Wipneus also has more downloadable files and graphs on his site, at the address provided by Neven above.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start/
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png
Uni Bremen's sea ice web site, with several useful sub-pages, including the extent chart.

[ajouis]

Thanks,
I have been looking at the forum almost daily for about a year, but apart from the nsidc site, hadn t found any place which originally uploads the data.
This season looks to be on the bottom of the pack consistently, if the current trend continues, it will be tied with 2012, but we can still hope for clouds later in the season to push it back a few places.

[FishOutofWater]

Just ban the troll, Neven. He outed himself as an agenda driven troll with this:

Leftists are always duplicitous.


I've reviewed the weird looking potential vorticity forecast maps so that you all don't have to. There are going to be many little lows spinning around the Arctic shores while the high reigns over the pole like the king of the north. These small storms around the Arctic shores will import heat from the warmed land areas over the slushy regions offshore. It will increase apparent extent while the pressure gradient with the predominant high pressure will put the strongest winds in the quadrant towards the pole. Thus the main pack will continue to spin clockwise as the edges are stirred up.

This pattern bodes ill for the weeks ahead. Don't be fooled by the slow drop in extent that we're seeing now.

[petm]

These small storms around the Arctic shores will import heat from the warmed land areas over the slushy regions offshore.

Getting pushed back into areas that have had open water and clear skies may not be good for the ice.

[Paul]

New member here but been interested in the changing Arctic and in particular melt seasons for many years now and this forum has been a great learning curve that is for sure.

Obviously with high pressure set to come into play even more there is alot of excitement that it could produce ideal melting conditions or at the very least pre conditioning for Later on in the season but I think there has to be some caution on this. Subject to any small scale changes it seems too me for the most part, this will be quite a cool high with no extraordinary 850hpa temps which suggests not alot of heat entering the basin from the landmasses unlike what we had recently in the Beaufort and at the start of the month with that extraordinary dipole.

Also there is this suggestion high pressure means clear blue skies and sunshine which for the most part may be true but the weather is never that simple and what I can see on the outskirts of the centre of the high is little kinks and shallow thicknesses which may suggest a shallow vortexs  and more cloud than it appears

Not sure this is the worst set up for the ice as June 2014 had alot of high pressure in a similar posittion but did not fully mean extent went off the cliff however this May has been much warmer than then so the results could well be different?

[epiphyte]

Beaufort clouding up somewhat - but not like 2016. To @fishoutofwater's point, These are bringing soggy dynamism from the South to the arctic periphery, wheras back then, they were extending a chilling blanket from the North: Viz:

[jdallen]

Dove-tailing with the melt pond and snow cover discussion, here's a couple of screen grabs of the snow cover model from Climate Reanalyzer; the first is today, the second is for June 1st.

The takeaway is, GFS predicts snow cover over the next 6 days will be hammered, seriously.

A lot of that melt - 6-10CM worth - will be on the snowpack in the CAB.

I'm wary of the *raw* GFS data and its handling of snowmelt, especially on the ice.  The GFS is not coupled to sea ice, and also has issues dealing with boundary layer (the part that interacts with earth's surface) temperatures.

Thanks for the feedback, Jay.  Very useful.

[Shared Humanity]

Just ban the troll, Neven. He outed himself as an agenda driven troll with this:

Leftists are always duplicitous.

When a brand new visitor comes to a website and immediately calls out everyone here as one thing or another, it does raise suspicions.

[uniquorn]

The darker red patch near top centre may be what AMSR2 is picking up?

maybe