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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1750 on: June 12, 2019, 03:06:56 PM »
Smoke from fires in central Siberia headed directly towards the Laptev, today on Worldview.  There is a distinct possibility these fires could get larger in the coming days, given the hot and sunny conditions.  I know this happens every year, but these seem to me to be the first large smoke plumes this year.

What will be the net effect on the ice?  Will the smoke tend to cool the ice beneath it by reflecting radiation back into space, or will soot from the snow settle on the ice, darkening it and accelerating melting?  Not rhetorical questions... I would like to know.  Does it depend on whether rain/snow takes the soot out of the atmosphere and deposits the soot on the ice?

Relatively small thus far, If u go back over the past couple of years on Worldview there are fires with 200km wide smoke plumes stretching from eg Siberia to Alaska, with what appear to be 50k wide infernos pouring to the stratosphere as source. I fear we will see worse this year.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1751 on: June 12, 2019, 05:22:14 PM »
Surface melting heat arrived in the Lincoln Sea.

The last frame (12:01h UTC) shows darkening in the M8 band.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1752 on: June 12, 2019, 06:30:23 PM »
The jarring difference between the AMSR2 and Worldview images of the Laptev and adjacent ESS...  mostly brought about, I assume, by water forming on the Laptev fast ice as it melts from above.  The deep blue ice of the Worldview image corresponds closely, to my eye, with the false open water parts of the AMSR2 image.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1753 on: June 12, 2019, 06:31:23 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1754 on: June 12, 2019, 07:10:50 PM »
   but not an unforeseen one .. b.c.

the gfs FV3 model has been forecasting a deep low Kara /Laptev for some time .. I feared it was a flaw but now other models agree . It however is deeper at 966mb  60 and 66 hours out ..
 .. and Greenland is getting Ireland's summer .. even the N. coast is toast ..
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 07:22:49 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1755 on: June 12, 2019, 07:40:50 PM »
The jarring difference between the AMSR2 and Worldview images of the Laptev and adjacent ESS...  mostly brought about, I assume, by water forming on the Laptev fast ice as it melts from above.  The deep blue ice of the Worldview image corresponds closely, to my eye, with the false open water parts of the AMSR2 image.

for me that open water part from sat-image corresponds quite well with AMSR2, hence not that false IMO.

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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1756 on: June 12, 2019, 08:15:30 PM »
On Svalbard every day the thickness of the snow cover decreases by almost 10 cm. Obviously, the ice in this area also suffers large losses.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1757 on: June 12, 2019, 08:50:06 PM »
Using the "Spy" feature in comparison mode on Worldview along the Laptev coast shows the difference between Jun 11 this year and Jun 11 last year (inside the spy glass). 

2018 still had some snow on the coast and fast ice was far less blue.

I can't recall noticing the comparison feature before on Worldview. I wonder has it been there along time? It has three useful modes - Swipe/Opacity/Spy.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1758 on: June 12, 2019, 08:58:13 PM »
Kinda messed up gif, ECMWF temperatures from this afternoon to day 6.
The model predicts somehow cooler temperatures from day 4, for the Eurasian side and the Basin. Difficult to say... but I cant find other site with EC temps, except Windy and alike (even worse for producing a gif)
Needs a click

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1759 on: June 12, 2019, 09:09:30 PM »
On Svalbard every day the thickness of the snow cover decreases by almost 10 cm. Obviously, the ice in this area also suffers large losses.
For an area the size of Svalbard with many mountains that's a kind of a big general statement and day to day temp variations can be quite large.

Stats for the coastal NW show that Ny-Alesund had snow cover up to June 1st. (The warm 9 C temps on May 31st finished it off). Last year the snow cover there was gone by May 18th.

May was only modestly warm at Ny Alesund, Svalbard, compared with previous Mays. North winds prevailed for much of the month - but even still were not enough to yield a negative temperature departure. 

May 2019 +1.8
May 2018 +5.5


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1760 on: June 12, 2019, 10:21:50 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

In case for whatever reason it's not known the image is being exasperated because of melting on the surface. 

there is no way that the melting can move that quickly into the ice where we lose that much however this is a sign that the melting is progressively slamming into the central Arctic.


This is heading towards a top 5 melt season with marginal melt conditions.


On a side note Greenland is getting destroyed.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1761 on: June 12, 2019, 11:26:58 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

In case for whatever reason it's not known the image is being exasperated because of melting on the surface. 

there is no way that the melting can move that quickly into the ice where we lose that much however this is a sign that the melting is progressively slamming into the central Arctic.


This is heading towards a top 5 melt season with marginal melt conditions.


On a side note Greenland is getting destroyed.

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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1762 on: June 12, 2019, 11:30:18 PM »
2012.6.12-2019.6.12 which one is worse

2012 shows more melt ponds while 2019 highlights the increasingly fragile nature of ice in the Arctic.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1763 on: June 12, 2019, 11:34:31 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

This is the melt season. Doesn't look good but we will need to wait and see.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1764 on: June 12, 2019, 11:47:13 PM »
The jarring difference between the AMSR2 and Worldview images of the Laptev and adjacent ESS...  mostly brought about, I assume, by water forming on the Laptev fast ice as it melts from above.  The deep blue ice of the Worldview image corresponds closely, to my eye, with the false open water parts of the AMSR2 image.

for me that open water part from sat-image corresponds quite well with AMSR2, hence not that false IMO.

https://zoom.earth/#75.749159,135.397788,6z,sat,am,2019-06-08

Have a look at the areas of fast ice near the coastline in the Worldview image, around the delta of the Lena river, especially to the left of the delta, but also to the right...

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1765 on: June 12, 2019, 11:49:50 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.
If I remember correctly we have been cautioned by those who know the most on this forum about interpreting SMOS maps too literally -- they are especially misleading during the summer season.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 02:15:56 AM by Pagophilus »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1766 on: June 12, 2019, 11:51:48 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

No it's not. (Thanks Pagophilus for pointing this out.) The SMOS microwave maps must be interpreted with caution during the melt season.

I always post this when I post them...

These images are sensitive to melt ponds.
IGNORE THE COLOR LEGEND'S NUMERICAL SCALE & LABEL (the color order progression should be valid though) - DURING THE MELT SEASON THESE ARE NOT LEGITIMATE THICKNESS MEASUREMENTS. Instead, my understanding is that any color other than beige indicates ice that is:
a) thin, ~<50 cm; &/or
b) has concentration well below 100%; &/or
c) has surface liquid water.
In particular, colours other than beige in the ice pack interior are likely to indicate the presence of surface water.


According to the SMOS maps, this year is only in the middle of the pack for the years beginning with 2010, or at least it was on 10 June.


Steven, looking forward to any updates of your very informative plot.


Meanwhile, a direct comparison of SMOS maps for this date can be made by looking at the archive here: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1767 on: June 12, 2019, 11:55:08 PM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

In case for whatever reason it's not known the image is being exasperated because of melting on the surface. 

there is no way that the melting can move that quickly into the ice where we lose that much however this is a sign that the melting is progressively slamming into the central Arctic.


This is heading towards a top 5 melt season with marginal melt conditions.


On a side note Greenland is getting destroyed.



The image is depicting sea ice thickness in a range of 0 - 50 cm+.

If the areas of < 10 cm are to be believed, then the adjacent areas going to zero also seem reasonable.

I think one has to regard the image as either complete BS (none of the thickness gradations are deemed reasonable) or potentially consider that it:s accurate.

I'm not taking a position on either side, but do note that the ESS coast is some of the shallowest water in the entire Arctic. Just a few meters iirc.  You have potential Atlantic water under there and a burst of warm from above with wind pushing the ice as well. It's not impossible to imagine a quick disappearance from the coast.


magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1768 on: June 13, 2019, 12:13:14 AM »

Have a look at the areas of fast ice near the coastline in the Worldview image, around the delta of the Lena river, especially to the left of the delta, but also to the right...

ok i was talking about the larger open water area that in one of the pictures are looking ice covered.

no big thing but that fast is is marginal in comparison hence not high on my watch list.

if you compare those two images you shall see that one shows more open water than the other while that one corresponds with the satellites, independently from any details on the periphery.

nevertheless what you mean and mention is correct of course ;)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1769 on: June 13, 2019, 01:23:32 AM »
I'd have to say the most important part of the Melt season taking place it's the fact that the Western Canadian Basin is being protected.

The Pacific side as a whole is completely screwed the laptev and ESS are going to be roasted early this year. 

Well we finally see the ESS get demolished by early July.

The current pattern suggests yes.  the heat that is being poured into the laptev and ess plus the sunlight right now is absolutely insane.



The Beaufort will be toast regardless of all else but we are going to need a pattern change to see the Western Canadian basin get toasted which is a requirement for a new record low.


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1770 on: June 13, 2019, 02:09:20 AM »


Strong melting conditions mostly on the Russian side, but also a fairly significant incursion of heat north of Greenland, but not nearly as extensive an area.  But a large area of cooler conditions with minimal surface melt.

Forecasts suggest the cool zone will shrink to a thin area on the American side.  Cooler conditions will continue and maybe expand on the Atlantic side, but with a great deal of wind/storminess. 
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1771 on: June 13, 2019, 02:10:27 AM »

Have a look at the areas of fast ice near the coastline in the Worldview image, around the delta of the Lena river, especially to the left of the delta, but also to the right...

ok i was talking about the larger open water area that in one of the pictures are looking ice covered.

no big thing but that fast is is marginal in comparison hence not high on my watch list.

if you compare those two images you shall see that one shows more open water than the other while that one corresponds with the satellites, independently from any details on the periphery.

nevertheless what you mean and mention is correct of course ;)
Understood, and thanks for your kind response.

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1772 on: June 13, 2019, 02:30:56 AM »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1773 on: June 13, 2019, 03:01:48 AM »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1774 on: June 13, 2019, 03:29:52 AM »
The recent area drops in the CAA are explained by the widespread appearance of melt ponds. This is a bit earlier than 2018 and 2017, but behind 2016 and 2012 and some other years. No actual ice area has been lost yet, same as other years at this time.
SMOS is also showing widespread surface water (do not confuse with actual thinness, this CAA ice is NOT less than 0.5m).
Max temps in Resolute, in the middle of the main NWP channel, are around 2-3Co. Forecasts call for temperatures to remain just above zero in the next few days.

Click to animate.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1775 on: June 13, 2019, 04:58:13 AM »
Nullschool model prediction for June 13.  Representative of the next few days' predictions because the weather systems seem to be stable right now.  Longer term forecasts are of course always uncertain.  Some amateur thoughts... 

As many have noted, continued sunny, warm conditions in the Laptev and ESS look menacing; and the overall wind pattern probably encourages continued clockwise rotation in the overall ice pack.  On the more comforting side, moderate winds are modeled by Nullschool as blowing directly against the direction ice must take to exit the Fram Strait.  Floes may nonetheless stream out into the Barents on the strong winds forecast to blow south between Svalbard and FjL, and further east. 

The weather system in the Beaufort Sea seems to have surface winds predicted acting against the ice motion there, preventing ice being pulled so efficiently from the area west of the CAA and thence towards the Chukchi.  It already seems from Worldview that the drift of some major floes in the Beaufort has stalled.  Happy to be corrected and learn thereby -- this is how it looks to me right now.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1776 on: June 13, 2019, 07:15:05 AM »
For any other Ice Mass Balance buoy fans out there I have just received an interesting message from Don Perovich:

Quote
We won’t be deploying any buoys until late summer and early autumn. We hope to deploy two buoys in the Beaufort in August-September and then the five with MOSAiC in October.

We introduced a brand new model in 2017 and 2018 – the SIMB3. There were some growing pains, particularly with the software. Some of the buoys were short-lived due to the program freezing. We corrected this by adding a “watchdog timer” to the motherboard to wake the system up if needed. We use a lot of data packing to get our data home using the less expensive short burst data mode. In the 2017 and 2018 buoys, there were dropouts in the packing which messed up the whole message. Some hours we got good data and some it was a mess. It took some data reduction by hand. I attach some plots of data from last year.

Our SIMB3 buoys are manufactured by a new company “Cryosphere Innovations.” They are also handling the first stage of data publishing. You can see data there at: https://data.cryosphereinnovation.com/

There seem to be two active SIMB3 buoys at the moment. One in the fast ice off Utqiaġvik and another off Prudhoe Bay. It looks as though surface melt at buoy 2017D started at around today's date.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 08:02:36 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Krakatoa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1777 on: June 13, 2019, 08:14:30 AM »
The entire Asian sector is actively collapsing. This is a catastrophe.

How does this compare to previous years? I was under the impression that this year the ice at the Siberian coast was still relatively healthy.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1778 on: June 13, 2019, 08:20:19 AM »
June 8-12.

The Laptev and the East Siberian seas have really extreme conditions for ice.

2018. Year ago I made first gif. Today it's possible to compare.

Thanks all for post interesting information about ice and weather.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 08:28:11 AM by Aluminium »

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1779 on: June 13, 2019, 08:52:58 AM »

approximate sea ice melt rate (cm/day) =

.018 * ( H2O temp + 1.8 ) raised to the 1.5th power

A quick table (check my math... I could have munged the computations):


The paper says: R = 1.8 x 10^-2 x (H2O temp + 1.80) ^1.5 where R is the melt rate in m/day.

Based on that, I think your numbers are out by one order of magnitude - shouldn't they be 10 times higher?

E.g. for H2O temp = 0, R = 0.018 x 1.8^1.5 = 0.018 x 2.4 = 0.043 m = 4.3 cm

You are missing  the the lack of a "10^-2" in my formula. (then again, maybe not. sMertz)  Looked good on the Spreadsheet.  Guess I'll have to look at it again.  That said, at the start, the numbers ramp up slowly because of the power factor.

Updated, and much more alarming, using your correction:

           melt,
 Tmp    cm/day
-1.8     0.00
-1       1.29
-0.5     2.67
0        4.35
0.5      6.28
1        8.43
1.5     10.79
2       13.33
2.5     16.05
3       18.93
3.5     21.96
4       25.14
4.5     28.46
5       31.92
5.5     35.50
6       39.21



It is, a very rough yardstick and doesn't account for salinity, etc.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 09:27:08 AM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1780 on: June 13, 2019, 10:02:25 AM »
Jdallen, I thought instinctively that your numbers looked low, which was why I checked them. The corrected numbers look high (alarmingly so, as you say), but I'm willing to believe that they're a good rule of thumb. As you say, all kinds of local conditions will affect actual melt rates.

Anyway, the ice surface temperature in the part of the ESS that is being battered at the moment is 272-275 K, which would equate to roughly 1-13 cm of melting per day.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1781 on: June 13, 2019, 10:11:34 AM »
The NSIDC's 5 day average extent has reached a clear new low for the date, in the satellite record at least:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-13
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1782 on: June 13, 2019, 10:14:45 AM »
Look at it that way - does a 2m ice floe floating in 6Co water melt away in 5 days or 50 days? I am certain 50 days is way too slow. OTOH 5 days sounds too fast, but ice doesn't normally float in 6Co water, so my intuition is probably wrong.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1783 on: June 13, 2019, 10:17:13 AM »
I can't recall noticing the comparison feature before on Worldview. I wonder has it been there along time? It has three useful modes - Swipe/Opacity/Spy.

It is there since at least mid-2018. This is when i first used the site.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1784 on: June 13, 2019, 10:22:32 AM »
I can't recall noticing the comparison feature before on Worldview. I wonder has it been there along time? It has three useful modes - Swipe/Opacity/Spy.

It is there since at least mid-2018. This is when i first used the site.
I never noticed it, but I find it easy to compare years by clicking the little arrows above and below the year.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1785 on: June 13, 2019, 10:25:30 AM »
June 8-12.

The Laptev and the East Siberian seas have really extreme conditions for ice.

2018. Year ago I made first gif. Today it's possible to compare.

Thanks all for post interesting information about ice and weather.

Thanks for the gifs. They're a draw unto themselves.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1786 on: June 13, 2019, 10:30:07 AM »
I never noticed it, but I find it easy to compare years by clicking the little arrows above and below the year.

I don't know if it works for you either, but i can also use the arrow keys for that. Makes it even more convenient to click through.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1787 on: June 13, 2019, 10:32:14 AM »
Look at it that way - does a 2m ice floe floating in 6Co water melt away in 5 days or 50 days? I am certain 50 days is way too slow. OTOH 5 days sounds too fast, but ice doesn't normally float in 6Co water, so my intuition is probably wrong.

Oren, The model is a static one that heat transfer process is much more important. We consider the warm air and water heat the ice. In other way, the ice also cool the water and air. It is interaction. I do not think the ice could be constantly cooled by water or air always with 6C for more than a week. How strong the heat wave transportation. There must be a ultimate heat source to support all this.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1788 on: June 13, 2019, 10:35:13 AM »
Look at it that way - does a 2m ice floe floating in 6Co water melt away in 5 days or 50 days? I am certain 50 days is way too slow. OTOH 5 days sounds too fast, but ice doesn't normally float in 6Co water, so my intuition is probably wrong.

It has also be noted that a floe in calm waters would melt more slowly than one in a wavy environment under these same temp conditions.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1789 on: June 13, 2019, 10:35:53 AM »
Click on the .gif to see an SMOS (satellite microwave measurements) map comparison for the 12 June on 2010 through this year, which is all the years in the database.

I find it easiest just to eyeball and compare the sizes of the beige area for each year, which tends to represent ice without a noticeable layer of surface water.

The size of this year's beige area is seen to be still 'within the pack' - with 2012, the year that still holds the record for lowest extent at the end of the melt season - standing out as having much less beige area than all the other years on this date, 12 June.

How much was that a coincidence for 2012; how much was it causal?  :P
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 10:56:16 AM by slow wing »

JamesW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1790 on: June 13, 2019, 02:10:12 PM »
Slater 50 day probability model forecast taking somewhat of a vertical cliff stance. Certainly interesting modelling. Time will tell...

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1791 on: June 13, 2019, 03:21:08 PM »
June 8-12.

The Laptev and the East Siberian seas have really extreme conditions for ice.

2018. Year ago I made first gif. Today it's possible to compare.

Thanks all for post interesting information about ice and weather.

Congrats on this anniversary.  I find your gifs very helpful for visualizing the ice, and with year on year comparisons now even more so.  The gifs that keep on gifing !

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1792 on: June 13, 2019, 03:23:18 PM »
+1 !!

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1793 on: June 13, 2019, 03:33:21 PM »
Look at it that way - does a 2m ice floe floating in 6Co water melt away in 5 days or 50 days? I am certain 50 days is way too slow. OTOH 5 days sounds too fast, but ice doesn't normally float in 6Co water, so my intuition is probably wrong.

Oren, The model is a static one that heat transfer process is much more important. We consider the warm air and water heat the ice. In other way, the ice also cool the water and air. It is interaction. I do not think the ice could be constantly cooled by water or air always with 6C for more than a week. How strong the heat wave transportation. There must be a ultimate heat source to support all this.

No sea ice survives long in the 5C water west of Svalbard, It took a prolonged period of cold of northerlies to bring ice back to the coast to its north, where it was more like 2C - Salinity of course is also involved

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1794 on: June 13, 2019, 05:03:56 PM »
Slater 50 day probability model forecast taking somewhat of a vertical cliff stance. Certainly interesting modelling. Time will tell...

corresponds with my expectations but gut-feelings don't count hence let's wait and see while we won't have to wait for long IMHO
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1795 on: June 13, 2019, 05:55:38 PM »
Following up on a comment Rich made yesterday in the area and extent data thread, and adding to oren’s Post #1774, it appears that large parts of the CAA will continue to see increased melting over the next few days.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1796 on: June 13, 2019, 07:27:10 PM »
A blowtorch went over the Lincoln Sea and then also Greenland.

This is a GIF showing 11.06. 02:11h to today 13:25 in M8 band. Bottom right is Greenland.

Jay found out what the darkening means exactly in this band. Read all about it here >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg205401.html#msg205401


Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1797 on: June 13, 2019, 07:33:03 PM »
The attached piece of a graph posted by Gerontocrat in the 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread makes me think Poseidon intends to thread this needle for a while longer.  But what will happen July 5 (or then-abouts) when the 'needle' closes up?  Not worth a poll, but fun to watch.  (I know Oren commented on this possibility maybe weeks ago.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1798 on: June 13, 2019, 07:50:11 PM »
On Kotelny Island, there will almost certainly be a record warm June. Last record warm June was in last year (+ 2.1C). It is now + 2.3C, and the forecast does not show a decrease to two degrees Celsius.

Two years in a row are very warm June.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1799 on: June 13, 2019, 07:50:42 PM »
Jdallen, I thought instinctively that your numbers looked low, which was why I checked them. The corrected numbers look high (alarmingly so, as you say), but I'm willing to believe that they're a good rule of thumb. As you say, all kinds of local conditions will affect actual melt rates.

Anyway, the ice surface temperature in the part of the ESS that is being battered at the moment is 272-275 K, which would equate to roughly 1-13 cm of melting per day.
The melt rate only applies to ocean-ice transfer of heat, not atmospheric.  That's a completely  different complex set of numbers. The atmosphere does not have enough heat content  to strip off ice that fast.

Even with zero albedo, and perfect transfer, insulation would only strip off 8-10 CM of ice a day.  The ocean can strip more because of the huge reservoir of heat it contains.

However, a lot depends on circulation, and it's unlikely wed see the higher melt numbers in my chart without virtually perfect conditions.
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