Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 673156 times)

BenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1800 on: June 13, 2019, 08:24:54 PM »
I know that, but I'm working on the assumption that the ice temperature in areas with melt ponds is the temperature of the water on the ice, so it would be heat transfer between the water in the melt pond and the top of the ice. Clearly the ice itself isn't generally going to have a temperature of 275 K. I realise there are differences with bottom melt, but the numbers might provide a starting point for guesstimates of daily ice loss from the top of the floes.

The ice surface temperatures appear to correspond quite well with what is actually happening (i.e. areas with extensive melt ponding have high ice surface temperatures), although there are problems with the masking - and there may be other reasons why the implied temperatures aren't a very good match to the real temperatures.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1801 on: June 13, 2019, 08:28:56 PM »
..... and the warmest part of the Arctic Ocean in the next three days is going to be... The ESS ! 

At least according to Climate Reanalyzer (3 day, 2m temp forecast).   The ESS is the only widespread area in the Arctic Ocean that is projected to have both min and max temperatures over freezing.  And the ESS looks set to receive near constant sunshine. 

BTW, can we post more absolute temperature maps alongside the temperature anomaly maps.  Absolute temp maps may look less dramatic, but they do let observers know if temperatures are actually above freezing or not. 

JayW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 497
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 126
  • Likes Given: 165
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 347
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 298
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1803 on: June 13, 2019, 08:57:40 PM »
It's merciless forecast for the East Siberian sea. Meanwhile, winds will push ice into the Barents and test new killing zone in the Beaufort.

Dharma Rupa

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 493
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1804 on: June 13, 2019, 10:01:56 PM »
We have lift-off.

JamesW

  • New ice
  • Posts: 9
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1805 on: June 13, 2019, 10:26:42 PM »
NSIDC Greenland daily melt went stratospheric. Luckily not as much as GFS had previously forecast on climate reanalyser. Still appx 44% melt percentage is a high number for this time of year. Albedo changes will be of interest as the melt season continues. It is forecast to be a high melt year on the Greenland ice mass according to several scientists who have reported about this recently. So one to watch out for.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 233
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1806 on: June 13, 2019, 10:50:17 PM »
Worldview corrected reflectance (bands 7-2-1) Chukchi, ESS, Laptev 2019 June 6-13.

The ESS ice getting most hammered by meltponding remains contiguous with the Siberian coast and once that ice melts then there will be a big open ocean area for any southerly wind fetches to build waves and transfer ocean heat from depth and melt ice.

Also the Chukchi looks to be beginning to change color and even with its more fractured smaller floes it should not bode well for the ice given the weather forecast.

Koop in VA

  • New ice
  • Posts: 14
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1807 on: June 14, 2019, 12:26:45 AM »
Long time lurker here and the little bit that I would have to offer in way of analysis is to humbly suggest to apply the brakes to the talk of the "catastrophe" (and other superlatives) for what is happening to the Laptev.

Yes, it visually looks bad with all the melt ponding on Worldview and SMOS. Yes, the forecast has been and continues to be rather bad in regards to temperatures, wind and insolation.  However I would encourage everyone to take a good look at Worldview and run it from June 13 to July 13th for 2012.  While some here would argue that for the Laptev the ice is in worse shape than 2012 due to the condition of the fast ice, there is counter argument that perhaps 2012 is worse because of the size of the Laptev bite.

Regardless of where you come down on this argument take a good look at the condition of the fast ice at this time of the year in 2012 and note how much ice was still around near the shore 1 month later.  The point being that it takes a lot of energy and a fair amount of time to melt ice here and a visual scan of the last 10 years indicates that while this year looks bad and the forecasts look bad, there is historical evidence that suggests this ice doesn't just go poof over night.

I'll go back to lurking but just wanted to also say that I appreciate all the insights that you all provide and I really love coming here each day.  I have a bit of geeky joy in my heart when I see that there are a lot of posts to digest over the last 12 to 24 hours (particularly on the melting season thread and the extent thread) especially when it stays on topic.

Cheers and thanks to all.

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 233
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1808 on: June 14, 2019, 12:54:59 AM »
I agree with the fact that we should not put too much emphasis in one season's melt. As others have indicated, what we are experiencing now has to be considered in light of the larger trend - the slow moving disaster of vanishing sea ice as evidenced by Brian Brettschneider's 100 year North American temperature change plot, where we can see how the Beaufort has shifted from an ice nursery into graveyard and how a melting of Greenland has created a vast cold pool.

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 807
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 169
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1809 on: June 14, 2019, 01:55:19 AM »
I will apply the term 'catastrophe' to the melting of the ice 'up north' without feeling any sense of exaggeration . The catastrophe of the ongoing thaw/melt in the East Siberian and Laptev seas is that it is another of the boxes ticked on the way to a season melt-fest .
 As A-team points out such weather is secondary to the real story of the season .. the unprecedented export of a large part of the multi-year ice to destruction . The export continues over the coming week with the wind blowing from the ESS/Laptev toward Barnetz/Fram . A large part of the remaining older ice will move into the killing zone to make way for the new ice so it can make way for open water .
  One of the results is that much of the colder air in the forecast is in Barnetz and Kara while the Siberian / Pacific side of the Arctic basin is basking in temperatures we in W Europe would appreciate atm.
 Then there was the snow .. strong arguements that extra snow on shore and ice would help delay the melt. No snow on shore or on onshore ice ..
 So I agreed with AM2's anguish at seeing yesterday's SMOS image . Even if it may not accurately reflect reality , it does reflect ongoing melt and the melt is going on and on , as am I . :)  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1696
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1810 on: June 14, 2019, 02:00:51 AM »
I will apply the term 'catastrophe' to the melting of the ice 'up north' without feeling any sense of exaggeration . The catastrophe of the ongoing thaw/melt in the East Siberian and Laptev seas is that it is another of the boxes ticked on the way to a season melt-fest .
 As A-team points out such weather is secondary to the real story of the season .. the unprecedented export of a large part of the multi-year ice to destruction . The export continues over the coming week with the wind blowing from the ESS/Laptev toward Barnetz/Fram . A large part of the remaining older ice will move into the killing zone to make way for the new ice so it can make way for open water .
  One of the results is that much of the colder air in the forecast is in Barnetz and Kara while the Siberian / Pacific side of the Arctic basin is basking in temperatures we in W Europe would appreciate atm.
 Then there was the snow .. strong arguements that extra snow on shore and ice would help delay the melt. No snow on shore or on onshore ice ..
 So I agreed with AM2's anguish at seeing yesterday's SMOS image . Even if it may not accurately reflect reality , it does reflect ongoing melt and the melt is going on and on , as am I . :)  b.c.
+500 to your post :)

interstitial

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 151
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1811 on: June 14, 2019, 02:20:14 AM »
Look at it that way - does a 2m ice floe floating in 6Co water melt away in 5 days or 50 days? I am certain 50 days is way too slow. OTOH 5 days sounds too fast, but ice doesn't normally float in 6Co water, so my intuition is probably wrong.
A question for Basic questions about melting physics IMO
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 02:32:03 AM by interstitial »

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 344
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 97
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1812 on: June 14, 2019, 02:59:42 AM »
20C now on Wrangel Island, doesn't drop below 10C at the location selected until Wednesday evening, and according to my quick calculation, the average until then is 14.5C. Its sunnier than the surrounding ice(though warm humid air under cloud will seed surface melt, so may be no better). The Laptev is is for full sun the next couple of days
and the Chukchi sea will continue warming as well

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 807
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 169
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1813 on: June 14, 2019, 03:02:33 AM »
  .. ^^^ as I was saying - warmer than western Europe .. the new Mediterannean sea ? .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Paul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 35
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1814 on: June 14, 2019, 03:10:09 AM »
NSIDC Greenland daily melt went stratospheric. Luckily not as much as GFS had previously forecast on climate reanalyser. Still appx 44% melt percentage is a high number for this time of year. Albedo changes will be of interest as the melt season continues. It is forecast to be a high melt year on the Greenland ice mass according to several scientists who have reported about this recently. So one to watch out for.

There has been hints in the longer eange Greenland may see more cooler wearher whilst the Arctic weather continues to warm up!

Ever since February with the constannt southerly winds through Bering, the weather for the large part has not been all that friendly to the sea ice or the crysosphere in general.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4202
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 687
  • Likes Given: 1193
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1815 on: June 14, 2019, 03:15:40 AM »
Long time lurker here and the little bit that I would have to offer in way of analysis is to humbly suggest to apply the brakes to the talk of the "catastrophe" (and other superlatives) for what is happening to the Laptev.

Yes, it visually looks bad with all the melt ponding on Worldview and SMOS. Yes, the forecast has been and continues to be rather bad in regards to temperatures, wind and insolation.  However I would encourage everyone to take a good look at Worldview and run it from June 13 to July 13th for 2012.  While some here would argue that for the Laptev the ice is in worse shape than 2012 due to the condition of the fast ice, there is counter argument that perhaps 2012 is worse because of the size of the Laptev bite.

Regardless of where you come down on this argument take a good look at the condition of the fast ice at this time of the year in 2012 and note how much ice was still around near the shore 1 month later.  The point being that it takes a lot of energy and a fair amount of time to melt ice here and a visual scan of the last 10 years indicates that while this year looks bad and the forecasts look bad, there is historical evidence that suggests this ice doesn't just go poof over night.
Good points, there is the absolute catastrophe that is ongoing in the Arctic, but also the relative catastrophe - how bad is this compared to the last few years, and especially 2012. And 2012 was worse at this date, with widespread melt ponds as Worldview and SMOS comparisons show. However, 2012 had much more MYI, while this year's ice has been much weakened by ongoing export, thus not necessarily requiring the same weather as 2012 to get to a new record, or to a significant 2nd-place finish. Considering that the ice from the Laptev to the pole itself is FYI according to Ascat animations, the hot weather and southerly winds in Siberia is especially worrying in my opinion, and a Laptev bite could develop relatively quickly.

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1816 on: June 14, 2019, 03:17:38 AM »
Long time lurker here and the little bit that I would have to offer in way of analysis is to humbly suggest to apply the brakes to the talk of the "catastrophe" (and other superlatives) for what is happening to the Laptev.

Yes, it visually looks bad with all the melt ponding on Worldview and SMOS. Yes, the forecast has been and continues to be rather bad in regards to temperatures, wind and insolation.  However I would encourage everyone to take a good look at Worldview and run it from June 13 to July 13th for 2012.  While some here would argue that for the Laptev the ice is in worse shape than 2012 due to the condition of the fast ice, there is counter argument that perhaps 2012 is worse because of the size of the Laptev bite.

Regardless of where you come down on this argument take a good look at the condition of the fast ice at this time of the year in 2012 and note how much ice was still around near the shore 1 month later.  The point being that it takes a lot of energy and a fair amount of time to melt ice here and a visual scan of the last 10 years indicates that while this year looks bad and the forecasts look bad, there is historical evidence that suggests this ice doesn't just go poof over night.

I'll go back to lurking but just wanted to also say that I appreciate all the insights that you all provide and I really love coming here each day.  I have a bit of geeky joy in my heart when I see that there are a lot of posts to digest over the last 12 to 24 hours (particularly on the melting season thread and the extent thread) especially when it stays on topic.

Cheers and thanks to all.

I agree with your extensive analysis of the current state of the Laptev, Koop, upon which you are focusing your comments.  Thanks.  You reminded me that that the baby-blue fast ice may be there for a while yet.  One of the best things I find I can do is look back through the data, images and maps from previous years to see if my immediate response to a current situation is warranted. 

Be cause's point on Fram Strait export of older ice is another matter.  That is really troubling, but looking back, there have been other years with massive losses of older ice.  Now, of course, we have less and less old ice to lose.  In summary, I would say that the trends in the state of ice, on a decadal basis, are catastrophic, but it is too soon, from my point of view, to make such a statement for 2019 alone.  I remember last year's forum was full of apocalyptical predictions, all of which wafted away in the breeze come September and the reality that there was no record low.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1502
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 138
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1817 on: June 14, 2019, 04:29:16 AM »
The forecast is brutal for a large part of the Arctic but as some of us long-term watchers of this no the Western Canadian basin is the Goldilocks area without the Western Canadian basin being decimated you cannot get a new record low.

We could see a cop 3 season without the Western Canadian basin getting decimated but we're not going to be 2012 unless there was a pattern change in the weather that brings sunlight and warm air off the Canadian land mass into the Western Canadian basin to cripple that multi-year ice right now no matter how windy it is there's a cold air in clouds.

Yes that massive high pressure is bringing heat to the CAA.

but that's still not going to be enough for a new record unless we see a pattern change soon.


And as it stands the weather looks pretty stubborn on keeping the Russian in Pacific side getting smoked by the Canadian side is protected.

this will bring for a spectacle but it will not bring a new record low if it doesn't change
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1818 on: June 14, 2019, 04:30:35 AM »
  .. the new Mediterannean sea ? .. b.c.

One would hope not - IIRC the coastal waters around Malta (pretty much in the middle of the med) average ~20 C year round, >=25 C in summer. 

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 727
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1819 on: June 14, 2019, 04:47:14 AM »
Greenland temps seem to go off the charts...

Rich

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1820 on: June 14, 2019, 04:48:35 AM »
I guess it's all a matter of perspective.

I agree that too much emphasis is placed on individual melting season's. But not because they create the appearance of catastrophe, more because they distract from the larger catastrophic decadal trend.

Other than the early season burst of heat, 2019 has been pretty average in terms of SST's until this recent Russian coastal increase. That 2019 is in contention with the all-time leaders after so much unremarkable temperature speaks to the progression of the chronic influence of AGW.

2019 is in position to go low and enter the freezing season where the signature impact of AGW (heat retention) dominates.

The chances of March 2020 setting a record low maximum are very good at this point.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3003
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 168
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1821 on: June 14, 2019, 04:58:52 AM »
<SNIP>
Yes that massive high pressure is bringing heat to the CAA.
<SNIP>
Speaking to that, melt momentum is ramping up in the CAA.

Worldview is showing the evolution of pretty much ubiquitous melt ponding.
This space for Rent.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 347
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 298
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1822 on: June 14, 2019, 07:47:52 AM »
20C now on Wrangel Island, doesn't drop below 10C at the location selected until Wednesday evening, and according to my quick calculation, the average until then is 14.5C. Its sunnier than the surrounding ice(though warm humid air under cloud will seed surface melt, so may be no better). The Laptev is is for full sun the next couple of days
and the Chukchi sea will continue warming as well
Observed temperature reached +11°С under clear sky.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1823 on: June 14, 2019, 08:53:52 AM »

BenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1824 on: June 14, 2019, 09:10:43 AM »
The ice in the Chukchi south of Wrangel Island is likely to be the first area to go "poof". There both the ice surface and sea temperatures are very high, and there's a relatively thin strip of ice, so it's less protected from the high water temperatures. I think a lot of it could be gone within a week. Elsewhere, as other's have stated, it will mainly take a bit longer.

Compared with 2012, there is stronger melting in ESS, similar/a bit weaker in Laptev, a bit stronger in the Greenland Sea (but with more ice to melt), but much weaker in Beaufort and CAA (although it's picking up there now). I'd say that 2012 is still well ahead in terms of momentum, but the last few days and the forecast for the coming week are definitely giving 2019 a boost.

Relatively consistent Fram and Nares export, including some very thick ice, is another factor in 2019's "favour" in the race to the bottom.

binntho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 776
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1825 on: June 14, 2019, 09:35:35 AM »
The Kolyma River and the Protoka Ularovskaya have both started exuding dark brown waters onto the ice in the East Siberian Sea as can be seen in the last few days.

But today the ice along the entire coast between the two deltas (around the bulbous peninsula) seems to be detached from the shore by a band of brown water. Going in closer in Worldview and it seems to be literally happening between yesterday and today.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4083
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 137
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1826 on: June 14, 2019, 09:46:11 AM »
A question for Basic questions about melting physics IMO

I refer you back to Don Perovich's infographics on melting sea ice floes:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg205366.html#msg205366



Here's another one from the summer of 2007:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 10:05:53 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7033
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 612
  • Likes Given: 407
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1827 on: June 14, 2019, 09:57:23 AM »
The forecast is brutal for a large part of the Arctic but as some of us long-term watchers of this no the Western Canadian basin is the Goldilocks area without the Western Canadian basin being decimated you cannot get a new record low.

We could see a cop 3 season without the Western Canadian basin getting decimated but we're not going to be 2012 unless there was a pattern change in the weather that brings sunlight and warm air off the Canadian land mass into the Western Canadian basin to cripple that multi-year ice right now no matter how windy it is there's a cold air in clouds.

Yes that massive high pressure is bringing heat to the CAA.

but that's still not going to be enough for a new record unless we see a pattern change soon.


And as it stands the weather looks pretty stubborn on keeping the Russian in Pacific side getting smoked by the Canadian side is protected.

this will bring for a spectacle but it will not bring a new record low if it doesn't change

I fully agree with this. The ECMWF forecast hasn't made up its mind yet about what's going to happen after D4 on the Pacific/Canadian side of the Arctic (I'll post the 12Z later today). In the meantime, almost all the action will be on the Siberian side for the next couple of days, causing SMOS and compactness to shoot down.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

lanevn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1828 on: June 14, 2019, 10:38:39 AM »
The forecast is brutal for a large part of the Arctic but as some of us long-term watchers of this no the Western Canadian basin is the Goldilocks area without the Western Canadian basin being decimated you cannot get a new record low.

We could see a cop 3 season without the Western Canadian basin getting decimated but we're not going to be 2012 unless there was a pattern change in the weather that brings sunlight and warm air off the Canadian land mass into the Western Canadian basin to cripple that multi-year ice right now no matter how windy it is there's a cold air in clouds.

Yes that massive high pressure is bringing heat to the CAA.

but that's still not going to be enough for a new record unless we see a pattern change soon.


And as it stands the weather looks pretty stubborn on keeping the Russian in Pacific side getting smoked by the Canadian side is protected.

this will bring for a spectacle but it will not bring a new record low if it doesn't change

There is one more way for new record low - in 10-20 years it will be possible even without proper weather pattern.

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 146
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1829 on: June 14, 2019, 11:47:17 AM »
Extent probably up from the storms.. Should cross check with compactness to see if it went down. 

Was trying to remember, I think the cold this past winter was over Hudson and the main blow torches over Bearing... Thus, the main pack is probably far weaker than we realize and maybe places like Hudson that saw below average cold is why extent is still only 2nd place?  Either way to be neck-and-neck with a super El Nino year is pretty amazing and global ice has remained consistently in first place by a good margin... Reminds me of the saying 'the hotter it gets, the faster it gets hotter' 
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 150
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1830 on: June 14, 2019, 11:49:09 AM »
But the ice along Greenlands North shore to the pole does not need to be melted in-situ guys?

We know its happy to 'float off' and the removal of near all of the old landfast ice over recent years means there are no 'grab points' anymore to slow the ice once in motion?

Put a big low over the Kara side and keep pressure high over Greenland/NE Canada and we could wave goodbye to that ice as it heads into the N Atlantic?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 807
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 169
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1831 on: June 14, 2019, 12:15:25 PM »
.. but Gray-Wolf .. no-one would dream of putting a big low over Kara now ,would they ?

 ..and ice likes extending even as it loses area and volume . It could in theory extend toward infinity and then just disappear . Poof ! There could be a lot of empty bins in the voting threads later this summer .

 as for the Canadian side .. there is still 3 months of melt ahead .. and even cautious Gerentocrat forsees an open passage . Tar sands give ice the runs ..

b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 344
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 97
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1832 on: June 14, 2019, 12:16:49 PM »
Jaxa extent increased by 20000Km2 today bringing it almost equal to 2012 at the end of its precipitous dive in early June.

Ice exported to the Atlantic and and churned towards open water zones of Beaufort and Chukchi seas made up for actual ice losses, and dispersal increases the exposure of the ice to further heating. Real volume numbers must be taking a big hit . I don't think there's much solace to be had in the forecast that its only the Chukotka coast that will see 20C+ every day this week, by July it could be the Gold Coast, except with no Queenslanders [but do be alert to the starving polar bears]

With dispersion and wind, and continuing heat import, who knows where holes might develop by end of July, at the pole or elsewhere.  Who knows had bad this season could get, if it doesnt get cool and cloudy soon(like the last few years. And not too windy. Dodging bullets is getting harder, and with a cannonball it may be game over

Edit: fixed extent gain number 20000km2 not 20km2

JayW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 497
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 126
  • Likes Given: 165
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 12:38:52 PM by JayW »
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 344
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 97
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1834 on: June 14, 2019, 12:45:16 PM »
The Kolyma River and the Protoka Ularovskaya have both started exuding dark brown waters onto the ice in the East Siberian Sea as can be seen in the last few days.

But today the ice along the entire coast between the two deltas (around the bulbous peninsula) seems to be detached from the shore by a band of brown water. Going in closer in Worldview and it seems to be literally happening between yesterday and today.
yet
I can see the band of floodwater you mention, but I don't think it indicates the landfast ice has detached at all(yet,). Other smaller watercourses would be feeding them, and some ice at the very shore may be entirely gone from the onslaught, but there's no sign of fracturing there yet, without which the ice can't float free, as its buttressed with a few small islands at least

The landlocked embayment further to the east may be the first thing to go, its also showing surface floodwaters from at least 4 rivers, and will cop unrelenting warmth

binntho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 776
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 195
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1835 on: June 14, 2019, 01:07:27 PM »
The Kolyma River and the Protoka Ularovskaya have both started exuding dark brown waters onto the ice in the East Siberian Sea as can be seen in the last few days.

But today the ice along the entire coast between the two deltas (around the bulbous peninsula) seems to be detached from the shore by a band of brown water. Going in closer in Worldview and it seems to be literally happening between yesterday and today.
yet
I can see the band of floodwater you mention, but I don't think it indicates the landfast ice has detached at all(yet,). Other smaller watercourses would be feeding them, and some ice at the very shore may be entirely gone from the onslaught, but there's no sign of fracturing there yet, without which the ice can't float free, as its buttressed with a few small islands at least

The landlocked embayment further to the east may be the first thing to go, its also showing surface floodwaters from at least 4 rivers, and will cop unrelenting warmth

I looked at some other years, and 2013 perhaps comes closest. I don't think this entire patch of ice is going to lift off from the shore, there are some islands that anchor it, but I'd not be surprised if there was actual open water along the shore. Not unusal to see in lakes anyway, albeit on a smaller scale.

Paul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 35
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1836 on: June 14, 2019, 02:03:32 PM »
.. but Gray-Wolf .. no-one would dream of putting a big low over Kara now ,would they ?

 ..and ice likes extending even as it loses area and volume . It could in theory extend toward infinity and then just disappear . Poof ! There could be a lot of empty bins in the voting threads later this summer .

 as for the Canadian side .. there is still 3 months of melt ahead .. and even cautious Gerentocrat forsees an open passage . Tar sands give ice the runs ..

b.c.

The ice on the Atlantic side wont just dissappear in the manner your describing? It will just get exported down the Greenland sea and melt that way? But it certainly not a here today, gone tomorrow so to speak.
 
I think most of the action will be in the Laptev sea with that strong low blowing southerly winds here for a few days. The trends for pressure to rise across the pacific side of the basin is there but its not quite yet a certainty this will happen. The ESS has warm air ahead but the saving grace does seem to be there is not much wind there at the moment so ice movement is quite small?

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 807
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 169
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1837 on: June 14, 2019, 02:39:54 PM »
Hi Paul .. the 3 paragraphs are 3 seperate thoughts meant to be read seperately .. :) b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Midnightsun

  • New ice
  • Posts: 13
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1502
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 138
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1839 on: June 14, 2019, 05:32:49 PM »
That storm over the Beaufort Western Canadian basin area is so stubborn.


Weather charts show a massive intrusion of incredibly warm air pounding two-thirds of the Arctic over the next few days.

Corrected reflectance off the terra charts show that 2/3 of the Arctic surface has seen melting and Albedo loss.

but that incredibly cold flow of air from the Kara to the Beaufort it's still intact.

It will see a beat down and it will be pushed a little bit South into the Western CAA.

Major melting will extend towards the pole and into the chukchi.

And along the Atlantic front the next few days.

This air mass is no joke it is absolutely silly.

But again the Western Canadian Basin is still protected.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Glen Koehler

  • New ice
  • Posts: 77
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1840 on: June 14, 2019, 06:27:48 PM »
To you GFS watchers (which include Climate Reanalyzer) -- note there is a significant temperature issue with the switch to new FV3 GFS model core on Tue. June 12.  Be wary of temperature values until this gets cleared up.  I don't know if it affects other variables. :-X

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4083
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 137
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1841 on: June 14, 2019, 07:16:57 PM »
Via Rasmus Tonboe and Steffen Olsen on Twitter:

A modest melt pond off North West Greenland, quite possibly somewhere near Qaanaaq according to Ruth Mottram:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2925
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 264
  • Likes Given: 149
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1842 on: June 14, 2019, 07:26:33 PM »
Quote
Water, water everywhere
Nor any drop to drink.
Sorry about that: wrong hemisphere.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 741
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 270
  • Likes Given: 108
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1843 on: June 14, 2019, 07:36:55 PM »
Yes, Jim, great minds and all. I posted that amazing photo in the image of the day thread a little earlier. I would guess that was the landfast ice on the coast of NW Greenland. I would expect the mobile sea ice to have more topographic features, specifically ice ridges, and to see ponds, not a large lake.

This is becoming a very interesting melt season. It doesn't appear to be as warm as 2012, but it has been different from any other year. It may surprise us.

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 224
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1844 on: June 14, 2019, 07:44:40 PM »
Just a short remark and may everybody forgive me if it sounds nitpicky: In the last days, I'm reading again and again that this year could make it in the top 3. I think that's not reflecting the distribution of the top ranks: Area and extent of 2007, 2011 and 2016 were extremely close and then there was, of course, the extraordinary melt of 2012. So predicting a place in the top 5 would be more accurate.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 10:35:41 PM by Thawing Thunder »
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 299
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 124
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1845 on: June 14, 2019, 07:50:12 PM »
I would guess that was the landfast ice on the coast of NW Greenland.

Good guess!

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 807
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 169
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1846 on: June 14, 2019, 08:04:58 PM »
I guess a satellite could mistake that melt pond for open water ? b.c.  :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1502
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 138
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1847 on: June 14, 2019, 08:09:18 PM »
Just enormous warmth coming into the Arctic from the Russian side.

And a very stubborn cold pool associated with that Cyclone on the Western Canadian basin
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1848 on: June 14, 2019, 08:09:58 PM »
I guess a satellite could mistake that melt pond for open water ? b.c.  :)

Location and date in question, Natural Colour band.

Edit: And a nice map.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 08:19:12 PM by b_lumenkraft »

meddoc

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 252
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1849 on: June 14, 2019, 09:05:40 PM »
Just enormous warmth coming into the Arctic from the Russian side.

And a very stubborn cold pool associated with that Cyclone on the Western Canadian basin


A good Sign, I guess reflecting the State of Canadian Basin Ice.
Where there is Ice & Snow, Atmosphere should be, too.