The only area that has a realistic shot to compensate for the sea ice in CAA is in the northern Greenland Sea. As we can see from Frivs map, that area was still ice covered at the minimumback in 2012. The last few years the ice has melten out there. Just my opinion.
I think that the other area that I took a chance would be the pole side of the Russian side.
but it must be noted to that once you reach like 85 degrees north towards the pole.
The actual area of surface that is being covered becomes so small
The Western CAB between 75-80N is much larger in comparison.
The CAA water ways are relatively far South too.
This phenomenom will likely bring a cliff dive in extent in July
We might see record extent loses in July.
Because the ESS and Chuchki will likely completely melt out during July.
The ESS has already drained pretty much over the entire area.
So now we know that the Melt lakes are gone and what's left is going to be that darkish slushy ice.
obviously atmosphere temperature pressure conditions help when it comes to losing surface Mass.
But on full Sunny days over the ESS we can probably expect about 4 to 8 cm of ice to get roasted.
Obviously 200cm/6cm = 33 days.
Obviously this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation.
Over the next week if it's not already started the bottom of the ice and a large part of the SS along the continental shelf probably has warmed up above -1. 5 Celsius Mark at the bottom of the ice.
As Bowie evidence in the past has shown. Once we have this happening.
we typically lose about 1. 5 to 2 cm for every 0. 5 degrees Celsius in warmth daily.
So if if the bottom of the ice in the ESS is 0 degrees Celsius. We could expect taking in the factor of their low salinity about 3 to 4 cm at bottom ice melt a day
remember though that this heat has to constantly be injected into this system.
If abruptly the weather above goes from warm and sunny too cold and cloudy.
it won't take very long for the warmth beneath ice to evaporate and nothing to stop or slow down substantially.
okay I'll stop rambling on now but the most important thing right now is that the weather forecast shows nothing of that.
in fact after a short 36-hour repreave of a little bit of low clouds and cooler mid-level Temps
All-weather models show a massive influx of heat first through a strong isobaric gradient bringing incredible warmth and moisture end of the ESS area.
Then a sprawling Ridge not just at the surface but top-down with very very warm air will engulf the entire Pacific half of the Arctic.
the actually worst part of all that for the ice will probably be that shot of warm moist air of the land mass.
In this case there will be mixing and the winds will be strong enough to break any surface inversion meaning that that fool crushed of the heat moisture will hit the ice so we'll probably see and enhance loss of ice right after probably see more moisture in the satellites on that surface of the ice.
Long story short the Pacific side is about to get wrecked