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Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 1184676 times)

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2350 on: June 23, 2019, 01:03:15 PM »
In addition to the plumes of moisture entering from Asia this week, next week may bring an even larger mass from the Pacific.

Forecast still a little wobbly, but if it occurs that would be the first major incursion of heat from the Bering bathtub I've seen in the last few months.
Yes. To.my untrained eyes D4 to D6 are three pretty damning days for almost the entire Arctic. The only region that does not get hot is the already damned Beaufort.
Current days are not good either. Should be a week of big losses in area and extent.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2351 on: June 23, 2019, 01:21:25 PM »
Jeez, these SSTs! Also there is currently a pulse of Bering inflow as evidenced by the wonderful observations of JayW here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg207094.html#msg207094

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2352 on: June 23, 2019, 01:48:54 PM »
Jeez, these SSTs!

Indeed, here's a comparison with 2012, 2016 and last year. Mind you, my archive is far from complete, and so the 2012 map is for July 1st and the 2016 map is for June 28th. So, this year has 9 and 6 days to go, respectively, but 2019 is already leading basically everywhere, expect for the Atlantic side.

Which is interesting, as PIOMAS says that the ice is thicker there, compared to previous years. If that's true, transport rather than insolation will be needed to really damage the ice pack.

So, a Dipole would a) further attack the ice on the Pacific side, and b) transport all that (allegedly thicker) ice further south into the Atlantic. If July can provide this set-up for an extended period, 2019 will have a shot at the title. But as always, don't rule out surprises.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2353 on: June 23, 2019, 01:53:02 PM »
In addition to the plumes of moisture entering from Asia this week, next week may bring an even larger mass from the Pacific.

Forecast still a little wobbly, but if it occurs that would be the first major incursion of heat from the Bering bathtub I've seen in the last few months.
Yes. To.my untrained eyes D4 to D6 are three pretty damning days for almost the entire Arctic. The only region that does not get hot is the already damned Beaufort.
Current days are not good either. Should be a week of big losses in area and extent.

Already, the area not affected by melting (white area) is minimal for any of the years 2010-2019. It is terrible to imagine what will happen next week.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2354 on: June 23, 2019, 02:06:25 PM »
This location (arrow pic) in a Sentinel animation (GIF, click to play, 14, 18, 22.06) and the flow of warm waters (pic 2)
« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 02:19:36 PM by b_lumenkraft »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2355 on: June 23, 2019, 03:10:52 PM »
Hi Jim .. future reference ? .. for when folk reminisce about an ice covered pole ? b.c.

No. Because the image for today will probably have changed by the time tomorrow  comes around.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2356 on: June 23, 2019, 04:25:39 PM »
Already, the area not affected by melting (white area) is minimal for any of the years 2010-2019. It is terrible to imagine what will happen next week.

can we stick to beige so that we can compare various images and statements ?

a) there is no white (or my aging eyes can't see any in those low res images ;) ;) )

b) consistent terminology about the same things are making things a lot easier IMO

c) ti saves time not having to look for something that's not there ;) ;) ;)

THX

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2357 on: June 23, 2019, 04:36:58 PM »
mercator(model) temperature 0m, pacific side, jun1-21 (not anomaly)

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2358 on: June 23, 2019, 05:10:40 PM »
16.8°C at Ostrov Kotel'Nyj, record high for the day and for so early in the month, beating the 16.6°C from the 13th of June of this year... The monthly mean temperature for June at this location is set to break the record by more than 2°C. In the same time, Tuktoyaktuk reached 22.5°C the 22th (daily record) and 22.5°C again the 23th. Arctic is under assault from all sides.
Sea ice is now disintegrating along the Siberian shores, and it will not take long now for seeing continuously open ocean from Ostrov Vrangel to Taïmyr peninsula.
And as others have noted, the number of beige pixels in the thickness ice map from the university of Bremen is at record low and digging more more.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2359 on: June 23, 2019, 05:23:18 PM »
And as others have noted, the number of beige pixels in the thickness ice map from the university of Bremen is at record low and digging more more.

Thanks for confirming my ratings on the eye. Probably next week we will see the earliest zeroing of the number of such pixels.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2360 on: June 23, 2019, 05:48:48 PM »
The monthly mean temperature for June at this location is set to break the record by more than 2°C.

According to forecasts for the remaining days, the average temperature on this island will be close to 12 degrees. In this case, the average temperature in June will exceed 6 degrees Celsius, which is at least 4 degrees more than previous records.

It will be almost the same extreme month as August 2007 on Wrangel Island, when the average monthly temperature was at least 5 degrees more than any other values.

This is another proof that the summer months can be just as extreme in the Arctic.

In general, be afraid for methane hydrates in the Laptev Sea.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2361 on: June 23, 2019, 05:54:09 PM »
Indeed, here's a comparison with 2012, 2016 and last year. Mind you, my archive is far from complete, and so the 2012 map is for July 1st and the 2016 map is for June 28th. So, this year has 9 and 6 days to go, respectively, but 2019 is already leading basically everywhere, expect for the Atlantic side.

Probably such a temperature of water off the coast of Alaska has no analogues for at least the last 100 years. I saw estimates that the last spring on the Arctic coast of Alaska was warmer than any last on 2-4 degrees.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx





« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 05:59:21 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2362 on: June 23, 2019, 06:44:44 PM »
ESS fast ice is disintegrating, well, FAST.  Today June 23 (top image) vs. June 22.

If this change over a single day is anything to go by, and conditions continue, then in my estimation the ESS fast ice could break up almost entirely into floes in a matter of days.

Some major new areas of cracking indicated with red arrows, but there are others... magnify the image on Worldview and you will see that there are new cracks all over the place   I am not GIFted (at all), hence the two separate images.

The Laptev fast ice is showing some rapid breakup too.

Contrast pushed on Photoshop for clarity.

« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 06:51:51 PM by Pagophilus »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2363 on: June 23, 2019, 06:56:44 PM »
Forecast for 27.06.2019 15:00 UT, 850 hPa. 10°C at the North Pole, 30°C in South-West Europe.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2364 on: June 23, 2019, 07:15:09 PM »
I am not GIFted (at all), hence the two separate images.

No gift needed, Pagophilus.

Just goto https://ezgif.com/maker, click the 'select files' button, select the screenshots, press 'upload' button.

You can set the time each frame should be shown. Something like 200 is good. Now hit the 'make GIF' button and you are good to go. Just click the save button and it's sitting in your download folder.

Of course, you can also crop the GIF right there to cut out the URL-bar and stuff we don't need to see. If you use the optimize function also, you reduce the file size, making it easier for folks to download the GIFs.

That's it. :)

Crocodile23

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2365 on: June 23, 2019, 07:22:49 PM »
 Being a hobbyist meteorologist(a Mathematician in profession) and seeing meteorological maps for more than 20+ years but have never seen so high geopotentials heights around Arctic.  :o :o
Maybe early July 2016 and middle June 2012 but even then not that tragic as the prediction seems right now.
00Z run of ECMWF:


Backed up by GFS also in its latest 12z run:


Astonishing.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2366 on: June 23, 2019, 07:56:52 PM »
Preliminary results for June:



For comparison, the anomaly by June 2005 (the warmest June in the Arctic).

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2367 on: June 23, 2019, 08:17:55 PM »
Being a hobbyist meteorologist(a Mathematician in profession) and seeing meteorological maps for more than 20+ years but have never seen so high geopotentials heights around Arctic.  :o :o
Maybe early July 2016 and middle June 2012 but even then not that tragic as the prediction seems right now.
00Z run of ECMWF:


Backed up by GFS also in its latest 12z run:


Astonishing.

July 2015 had a monsterous ridge.

There has been short lived smaller ones.

July 8-11 2013 iirc had a monster ridge.


The most impressive part of the weather this June is that a vortex hasn't been allowed to be take over at all.

This is where the ice dies.


There is a lot of nostolga about the goldilox years of 2007-12.

They all had ups and downs except 2007 which changed the paradigm.

2007 was the polar opposite of 1996 in remarkable fashion.

« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 08:24:19 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2368 on: June 23, 2019, 08:21:18 PM »
Yes. To.my untrained eyes D4 to D6 are three pretty damning days for almost the entire Arctic.

Looks like rain and maybe some snow (?) over the Kara in the next few days (att.), possibly followed in the later half of the week by rain in the Laptev (not shown).

In general, be afraid for methane hydrates in the Laptev Sea.

(OT) Speaking of which, this recent article by Natalia Shakhova is worth a look:
https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060251


Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2370 on: June 23, 2019, 08:30:48 PM »
Omg buoys or Moorings in the ESS or Laptev would be great right now


How about be crowd source a drone that could at least fly relatively deep into the Arctic and take HD photos for us.


How much and how big to get it to the ESS or "close".
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2371 on: June 23, 2019, 08:49:39 PM »
How about be crowd source a drone that could at least fly relatively deep into the Arctic and take HD photos for us.

I'd throw in for that.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2372 on: June 23, 2019, 08:52:00 PM »
The 12Z euro and to a lesser degree the gfs keep the ridging going.

Not the most perfect orientation.

But would be really bad
I got a nickname for all my guns
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2373 on: June 23, 2019, 09:51:48 PM »
The Russians, just like the Iranians, don't care for other's drones flying over "their" territory.  The article I read on the Polarstern mentioned the special permits (with the implied "hard to get") required to acquire data from Russian seas.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2374 on: June 24, 2019, 06:23:48 AM »
Up to now, we do not see many cracks or floes in central arctic through satellite, it do not mean that the ice is intact, it only shows that the wind is not strong. If you look carefully, there are many tiny cracks spread all over the ice which means the ice could be broken up into tiny floating thin ice if strong wind coming. There are major two kinds of floes in arctic, the big floes in Beaufort sea and tiny floes along the Russia coast( East Siberian Sea, Laptev Sea, etc.).

The big floes in Beaufort sea formed 2 weeks ago but it still exist and melt away in a slow way. It may result from the insolation efect as without enough melt pond.

The tiny floes along Russia side just formed 1 week ago but melt away quickly.

The difference lies in the insolation effect. If the central arctic sea ice remains seemingly intact but darker and darker into July. Once breakup, they will be melt away quickly. If the central sea ice break up early into large floes(seemingly looks terrible as 2016), but they will exist for a long time.

Remember all the energy in arctic comes from sun, no matter storm, wind, etc. Although the ice extent or area do not drop down quickly, it becomes thinner and thinner. That is the most terrible thing.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2375 on: June 24, 2019, 06:47:55 AM »
The ongoing, rapid collapse and fragmentation of the ESS fast ice continues...

I'm guessing many of you have seen this before, but it is mind-bending for me to imagine the scale and speed of this as I sit at my computer...

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2376 on: June 24, 2019, 07:13:49 AM »
The 12Z euro and to a lesser degree the gfs keep the ridging going.

Not the most perfect orientation.

But would be really bad

Looking at those maps...it shows a low pressure system sitting on the Russian side of the Bering Strait on ~ 7/1.

That's a location where the cyclonic winds can get behind the warmer Bering Sea water and push it into the Chuchki which is already relatively warm.

When we look back at this season, Pacific side ocean heat may be the big story.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2377 on: June 24, 2019, 09:04:44 AM »
The ongoing, rapid collapse and fragmentation of the ESS fast ice continues...

I'm guessing many of you have seen this before, but it is mind-bending for me to imagine the scale and speed of this as I sit at my computer...
As you said, it is mind bending because it is very fast, and massive, all at once Laptev and ESS. Not sure if unprecedented but this doesn't happen most of the years, it usually takes longer to get to this state.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2378 on: June 24, 2019, 09:57:38 AM »
Because the image for today will probably have changed by the time tomorrow  comes around.

See what I mean? https://go.nasa.gov/2WYvWpZ
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2379 on: June 24, 2019, 10:51:23 AM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, barentsz-mar21-jun23.
Lots of melting with some wind driven export, especially recently. Very little movement from kara to cab this year.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2380 on: June 24, 2019, 10:59:15 AM »
Here we have freshwater floating onto land-fast ice, land-fast ice breaking up, and a brief (?) reversal (?) of the Fram export.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2381 on: June 24, 2019, 11:19:21 AM »
Here we have freshwater floating onto land-fast ice, land-fast ice breaking up, and a brief (?) reversal (?) of the Fram export.

It's just like the Nares situation of last week. Wind is blowing the surface ice in the opposite direction of the current.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2382 on: June 24, 2019, 11:29:02 AM »
In Nares, the current stopped/slowed down >> http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/PSY4/animation

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2383 on: June 24, 2019, 11:48:01 AM »
Here we have freshwater floating onto land-fast ice, land-fast ice breaking up, and a brief (?) reversal (?) of the Fram export.
Nice animation. 'brief?reversal' - If the gfs forecast plays out the transpolar express will supercharge fram export later this week.
practising superlatives

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2384 on: June 24, 2019, 11:56:58 AM »
Nice animation.

Thank you!

Added that big fat timestamp with your suggestion in mind. ;)

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2385 on: June 24, 2019, 12:41:21 PM »
The beige on 1 July 2012 SMOS isn't too different from the area ice survivedd that year. And more importantly, its basically one large contiguous area, whereas this year now is a patchwork of remnants - its hard to imagine anything but top 2

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2386 on: June 24, 2019, 01:28:41 PM »
Weather circulation is drowing into chaos. With the heatwave in Europe, and blocking other Pacific, subtropical jet is a sore snake trying to stay alive. At 144h to 168h, GFS and IFS are even showing that the trade winds domain will extend almost up to Aleutian islands... And more on topic, there is no end in sight, with blocking signal still being strong at 240h. And again the European is at least as furious than the American...

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2387 on: June 24, 2019, 02:59:53 PM »
The landfast ice in the ESS is simply vanishing - the GIF shows ice one day, gone the next. Look closely at the two last frames, large areas of ice simply disappear, but at the same time, the entire field starts shifting to the right and tearing like tissue paper.

Edit: The image is approximately 200km on each side, or 40.000 kilometres squared as the dude likes to say,  even three or four times in each posting, although always with the same spelling mistake.
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deep octopus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2388 on: June 24, 2019, 03:28:48 PM »
Stunning images binntho. Horrifying actually. That influx of anomalous warmth and wind from the high on the Siberian side is working the ice in ESS and Chukchi like a hair dryer.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2389 on: June 24, 2019, 03:37:37 PM »
Here we have freshwater floating onto land-fast ice, land-fast ice breaking up, and a brief (?) reversal (?) of the Fram export.
Nice animation. 'brief?reversal' - If the gfs forecast plays out the transpolar express will supercharge fram export later this week.
practising superlatives

Nullschool forecast for June 27, 3 days out.  Surface winds + temperature.  I presume this shows what you mean, Uniquorn?  Just trying to match images to your words...

I also presume that this probably means more ice being dragged by wind towards the Atlantic in general.  And another(?) low pressure area scooping ice out of the Kara Sea....

PS  I know (now) that Nullschool has its limits, but it did also model the surface winds of the past couple of days or so that 'predicted' the 'brief?reversal' in Fram export.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 05:03:02 PM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2390 on: June 24, 2019, 04:05:03 PM »
Arctic wide sea ice area is now lowest for the date in the high resolution AMSR2 record:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-23

And if you exclude the peripheral seas the picture is much more stark:

And, as many have mentioned, the distribution of the ice this year is significantly different to previous years, as these NSIDC comparison maps show (comparisons for the June 22 date between 2019 and 2018, 2016 (near record) and 2012.  So there is soooo much uncertainty ahead.

BTW I find these maps to really help with visualizing what is happening to the ice, especially this season and how unusual the situation is.  The comparison tool is really quick and easy to use. 

With the Pacific side so open, and ice pouring into the Atlantic, much may depend on how quickly the rather stubborn ice distribution on the Atlantic side changes in the coming weeks.

Thank you, developers at NSIDC !   http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/   
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 04:10:41 PM by Pagophilus »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2391 on: June 24, 2019, 04:41:01 PM »
On a positive note, there has been a lot of precipitation recently over Laptev and Beauford, and for what i can see it mostly came down as snow, not rain!




ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2392 on: June 24, 2019, 05:14:46 PM »
The landfast ice in the ESS is simply vanishing - the GIF shows ice one day, gone the next. Look closely at the two last frames, large areas of ice simply disappear, but at the same time, the entire field starts shifting to the right and tearing like tissue paper.

Edit: The image is approximately 200km on each side, or 40.000 kilometres squared as the dude likes to say,  even three or four times in each posting, although always with the same spelling mistake.

On the other hand, fast ice in the Laptev Sea is very strong in this year.

In 2014, 2011, 2008, 2007 there were much more cracks in fast ice (as of the current date).

Probably the last freezing season was quite cold. In this regard, even the warmest June will not allow the landfast ice to be destroyed in record early periods.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 05:31:28 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

cavitycreep

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2393 on: June 24, 2019, 05:16:01 PM »
Sea Ice Concentration, June 9 – June 23

Look at the melt in the Fram in the last two days!!

Beaufort still seeing significant melting; also looks like more ice is being pushed in from the east.

Laptev melt extending further south.

Kara was holding up better than the others but the melt has started to kick off.

Check out the melt in the central arctic around June 17. I assume this is heat from the Siberian wildfires?

Ice has significantly degraded in Baffin.

Hudson and CAA are melting fast, too.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 03:57:25 AM by cavitycreep »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2394 on: June 24, 2019, 05:17:08 PM »
The fast ice next to Kara Lena delta breaking up over the past week.  A considerable area... more than 300km long, up to 50km wide in north, up to 100km wide in south (coastal end).

b_lumenkraft, you have changed my life.  God bless you, sir, and thank you for your clear instructions earlier on how to make a gif.

Click to animate...

« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 07:50:18 PM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2395 on: June 24, 2019, 05:29:24 PM »
Juan and gerontocrat (my two favorite ice monitors) are telling us the extent is creeping back up. Maybe we will have another max? I won't guess, but I do know that the ice looks terrible right now in the Bering, Beaufort and Chukchi. 

Zack posted another clear image of the Bering today.  https://t.co/0UZgoTfsbY

And the ice is in bad shape in the ESS, parts of the Laptev and south Kara Sea.  See image below, the ice is now really thinly distributed in the south Kara, enough for extent's 15% but in this case it is a rather illusory extent. 

But extent is holding up along much of the Atlantic side, probably only temporarily.  (NSIDC comparison maps above in this thread)  And ice has spread into the Beaufort.  Those factors are influencing extent a good deal, I think.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 05:54:06 PM by Pagophilus »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2396 on: June 24, 2019, 05:34:59 PM »
b_lumenkraft, you have changed my life.  God bless you, sir, and thank you for your clear instructions earlier on how to make a gif.

That's great! I'm glad i could be of help. :)

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2397 on: June 24, 2019, 05:42:39 PM »
Sea Ice Concentration, June 9 – June 23 (click to animate)

Look at the melt in the Fram in the last two days!!

Beaufort still seeing significant melting; also looks like more ice is being pushed in from the east.

Laptev melt extending further south.

Kara was holding up better than the others but the melt has started to kick off.

Check out the melt in the central arctic around June 17. I assume this is heat from the Siberian wildfires?

Ice has significantly degraded in Baffin.

Hudson and CAA are melting fast, too.
Thank you, cavitycreep.  Great animation.  Please keep them coming.  A couple of comments.

I agree melt in the South Kara Sea is proceeding apace... ice is very thin there (see above).  Not sure about the north Kara though, although the very blue patch of fast ice there supports your statement.

"Beaufort still seeing significant melting; also looks like more ice is being pushed in from the east." Agree on this, and this is what Michael H. got such heat from some for suggesting a few days ago.

I don't think the melt in the central Arctic around June 17 is from heat from wildfires... that is too small an amount of energy, I believe.  It is more the smoke that makes the difference to the ice.  But on the last frame, June 24, we do seem to see the effects of the ridge that has pulled a huge amount of heat into the central Arctic...
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 06:00:15 PM by Pagophilus »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2398 on: June 24, 2019, 06:05:46 PM »
<>'brief?reversal' - If the gfs forecast plays out the transpolar express will supercharge fram export later this week.     practising superlatives
Nullschool forecast for June 27, 3 days out.  Surface winds + temperature.  I presume this shows what you mean, Uniquorn?  Just trying to match images to your words... <snippage>
yes. btw image in 2394 is of the Lena delta

cavitycreep

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2399 on: June 24, 2019, 06:10:10 PM »
I don't think the melt in the central Arctic around June 17 is from heat from wildfires... that is too small an amount of energy, I believe.  It is more the smoke that makes the difference to the ice.  But on the last frame, June 24, we do seem to see the effects of the ridge that has pulled a huge amount of heat into the central Arctic...

I see! So the rapid movements of red that seem to sheer through are really the smoke from the fires being carried by the winds, correct? And the red that's closer to the shoreline is heat moving in from the actual fires themselves? I know it's not exactly scientific, just making sure I understand what's happening from a layman's point.