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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2400 on: June 24, 2019, 06:13:52 PM »
yes. btw image in 2394 is of the Lena delta
Corrected.  Thanks!

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2401 on: June 24, 2019, 06:19:14 PM »
Yes, the Kara sea is going to  undergo its "flash melting" in extent and it may be practically done by July...

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2402 on: June 24, 2019, 06:26:10 PM »
I don't think the melt in the central Arctic around June 17 is from heat from wildfires... that is too small an amount of energy, I believe.  It is more the smoke that makes the difference to the ice.  But on the last frame, June 24, we do seem to see the effects of the ridge that has pulled a huge amount of heat into the central Arctic...

I see! So the rapid movements of red that seem to sheer through are really the smoke from the fires being carried by the winds, correct? And the red that's closer to the shoreline is heat moving in from the actual fires themselves? I know it's not exactly scientific, just making sure I understand what's happening from a layman's point.

I don't know if the 'rapid movements of red' are artefacts from the smoke from the fires, but I suppose they could be. I am not sure even what the instrument producing that red pattern is actually measuring.  I think the red color might be a reflection of the surface condition of the ice (surface water?), as per SMOS imagery but I do not know.   Way above my pay grade here so I leave that to others. 

It is just my strong intuitive sense that the wildfires burning at present form only a small proportion of the total heat coming from the vast expanses of a very warm Siberia and beyond.  Much of Siberia, and the Siberian side of the Arctic ice have been baking in near continuous sunshine for 24 hours a day (or for very long days further south) for two weeks now.   That is an incredible amount of solar energy.  All that said, I myself would really like to learn the answer to your questions.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 07:28:39 PM by Pagophilus »

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2403 on: June 24, 2019, 06:30:58 PM »
I don't have the experience to be convinced of my hunches.  Looking at cavitycreep's animation post #2393, makes me wonder what others think about two observations:

1.  It seems that multi-year trend towards thinning and rotten ice has reached a tipping point.  The effect being that when combined with the destructive current and near term weather forecast, the indicator measures (Extent, Area, Volume) are primed to go off a cliff in the next week, are likely to reach 2012 level even without an August cyclone, and below it if there is one.  Of course it all depends on July weather, but from what the weather gurus on this forum are saying there is no apparent weather relief for the ice in sight.  The persistence of the northern Siberia roasting for week after week is searing my memory as well as the permafrost.   

Except for nooks and crannies left in the CAA, it looks like by October 2019 the extinction of 4- and 5- year old ice could be largely complete. 

2.  Is the CAB pack rotation more mobile this year?  Wind speeds do not seem abnormal which makes me wonder if enhanced mobility of weaker, fractured ice  is another reinforcing feedback driving the 2019 melt season.  Or (if mobility is indeed higher) is the positioning of the High and Low cells and resultant wind orientation the only factor that really matters?   

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2404 on: June 24, 2019, 06:46:11 PM »
The landfast ice in the ESS is simply vanishing - the GIF shows ice one day, gone the next. Look closely at the two last frames, large areas of ice simply disappear, but at the same time, the entire field starts shifting to the right and tearing like tissue paper.

Edit: The image is approximately 200km on each side, or 40.000 kilometres squared as the dude likes to say,  even three or four times in each posting, although always with the same spelling mistake.


That is amazing. 

That's not drift. Most of that is insitu melting.

We have never seen the ESS collapse this fast.

We are going on 60 hours of wall to wall sunshine.

With an upper right building back into the Arctic even stronger than last weekend.

And now in the medium to long range the models keep the lower tropospheric PV anomaly shattered.



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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2405 on: June 24, 2019, 06:48:41 PM »
On a positive note, there has been a lot of precipitation recently over Laptev and Beauford, and for what i can see it mostly came down as snow, not rain!

There has been no snow anywhere near the laptev.

The Beaufort probably had snow last week.

But the surface is currently wet as is.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2406 on: June 24, 2019, 06:54:34 PM »
How did the D8-D10 forecasts that were posted here 5/10/15/20/25/30 days ago pan out? I might be mistaken, but it sure seems like almost all of them looked worse than the weather ended up being. That says nothing of the condition of the ice, just pointing it out.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2407 on: June 24, 2019, 07:28:40 PM »
There has been no snow anywhere near the laptev.

The Beaufort probably had snow last week.

But the surface is currently wet as is.

This is a GIF showing Greenland and CAA on the right, in M8 band (which picks up snow grain structure, brighter is fresher) from 2019-06-19 15:44:13 UTC to 2019-06-24 13:18:24 UTC.

IDK man, i do see fresh snow alongside that wide band and in Laptev. Not marked but lower left also.

Or i'm interpreting the data wrong, which can be entirely the case.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2408 on: June 24, 2019, 07:50:36 PM »
it sure seems like almost all of them looked worse than the weather ended up being.

Perhaps, but none of them turned out good for the ice. It's the same with the forecast now, perhaps not catastrophic, but definitely not good either. And as long as the forecast isn't good for the ice, this melting season is mighty interesting. Almost July now, and June was a hammer.
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2409 on: June 24, 2019, 08:22:48 PM »
There has been no snow anywhere near the laptev.

The Beaufort probably had snow last week.

But the surface is currently wet as is.

This is a GIF showing Greenland and CAA on the right, in M8 band (which picks up snow grain structure, brighter is fresher) from 2019-06-19 15:44:13 UTC to 2019-06-24 13:18:24 UTC.

IDK man, i do see fresh snow alongside that wide band and in Laptev. Not marked but lower left also.

Or i'm interpreting the data wrong, which can be entirely the case.
I think it's the name. The Laptev Sea is right at the other side of the Pole

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2410 on: June 24, 2019, 08:25:34 PM »
Damn, i'm stupid. I meant to say Lincoln. So sorry for the confusion guys. Mea culpa.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2411 on: June 24, 2019, 08:29:39 PM »
Lol no problem I spent 5 min looking around your gif for the "Laptev"  tho ;D

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2412 on: June 24, 2019, 08:32:34 PM »
Oh boy. So sorry, Sterks!  :-[

Not the first time i confuse them. But surely the last time.  :)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2413 on: June 24, 2019, 09:08:35 PM »
How did the D8-D10 forecasts that were posted here 5/10/15/20/25/30 days ago pan out?
Was just looking. Tropicaltidbits.com makes it super easy to compare forecasts from 7 days ago with the current initialization.  A week ago (top pic), ECMWF predicted a 1033mb ridge off the ESS; today they're initializing at 1028 in the same place (bottom pic).  A pretty good forecast!  However, the huge 1040+ high that the 8-10 day forecasts had put over the central Arctic has been lowered dramatically in the new forecast runs.  Both EC and GFS have it more elongated from ESS toward Greenland and about about 1032mb, with small lows in the CAA and deeper low in the Barentz. So thankfully not the basin dominating super-high that was predicted, but still should have lots sun and still quite a bit of export to the Atlantic I think.


oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2414 on: June 24, 2019, 11:20:20 PM »
Cavity creep, I doubt the fires have much effect on the overall situation in the Arctic. I'd guess the temporary reds are clouds or some other weather artifacts, but surely the red flowing from the Siberian coast is the terrible heat there, weather related, the same heat that causes the fires.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2415 on: June 24, 2019, 11:31:05 PM »
The landfast ice in the ESS is simply vanishing - the GIF shows ice one day, gone the next. Look closely at the two last frames, large areas of ice simply disappear, but at the same time, the entire field starts shifting to the right and tearing like tissue paper.

Edit: The image is approximately 200km on each side, or 40.000 kilometres squared as the dude likes to say,  even three or four times in each posting, although always with the same spelling mistake.


That is amazing. 

That's not drift. Most of that is insitu melting.

We have never seen the ESS collapse this fast.

We are going on 60 hours of wall to wall sunshine.
This. Some ice cliffs simply don't show up in the present headline extent number, but they do affect the ice itself. The effect will be felt in the coming weeks until September. This is why I find Gerontocrat's claim of unjustified hyperbole in the melting thread to be unsubstantiated. Bad for the ice doesn't mean inmediate extent and area drops - this can only happen in regions where all or some of the ice is already thin. But in the ESS (for example) ice is quite thick, and to melt it to near-zero area by September requires major melting in June-July that barely affects area, if at all.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2416 on: June 24, 2019, 11:34:34 PM »
This, is all wet, and is going to be getting beaten on for the foreseeable future.  Almost half the Arctic.  (deliberately low resolution.  Use Worldview for detail)

Zoom in on the link and you'll see melt ponds pretty much everywhere, except where the ice has "rubbled".  Even then, I'd say they are probably there, just too small for the satellite to pick out accurately.

Worldview link.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-06-24-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2209891.0427441667,482904.3859723178,673692.9572558333,2455128.385972318
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2417 on: June 24, 2019, 11:53:26 PM »
That rotten ESS fast ice is up for ... a hair dryer somebody said.
Notice the build up of ice drift caused by the warm winds as we get close to July.
Needs a click.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2418 on: June 25, 2019, 12:03:28 AM »
much may depend on how quickly the rather stubborn ice distribution on the Atlantic side

This ice is doomed.





Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2419 on: June 25, 2019, 12:25:32 AM »

This. Some ice cliffs simply don't show up in the present headline extent number, but they do affect the ice itself. The effect will be felt in the coming weeks until September. This is why I find Gerontocrat's claim of unjustified hyperbole in the melting thread to be unsubstantiated. Bad for the ice doesn't mean inmediate extent and area drops - this can only happen in regions where all or some of the ice is already thin. But in the ESS (for example) ice is quite thick, and to melt it to near-zero area by September requires major melting in June-July that barely affects area, if at all.

I suspect we are all on the same boat, really, thinking that a very low minimum is likely, and that a record low is possible.  That is the case every year now, it seems.  Maybe a record minimum is more possible this melting season with each passing day -- I am certainly worried.  But my understanding of critiquing hyperbole is that imminent weather events are sometimes presented here as the events that are going to take down the Arctic ice, either by direct statement or by implication, and I took Gerontocrat's comments to mean that.  There is, as he reminds us sagely, still a long way to go with the melting.  Gerontocrat is going by the numbers, present and past, and I like very much that somebody does so regularly and reasonably, as it helps keeps me grounded. 
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 12:33:15 AM by Pagophilus »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2420 on: June 25, 2019, 12:40:18 AM »
Focussing on "the numbers", as you put it, is an example of the streetlight effect. Area and extent are useful in sometimes indicating anomalous regions, regions where one might want to try to figure out what's happening, but nothing more. (Obviously just my opinion.)

Really it just comes down to the weather now.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2421 on: June 25, 2019, 01:02:31 AM »

This. Some ice cliffs simply don't show up in the present headline extent number, but they do affect the ice itself. The effect will be felt in the coming weeks until September. This is why I find Gerontocrat's claim of unjustified hyperbole in the melting thread to be unsubstantiated. Bad for the ice doesn't mean inmediate extent and area drops - this can only happen in regions where all or some of the ice is already thin. But in the ESS (for example) ice is quite thick, and to melt it to near-zero area by September requires major melting in June-July that barely affects area, if at all.

+1

short-term extent numbers are at odds with a holistic understanding of the situation. I think the possibility of a big year is sinking in for everyone at this point.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2422 on: June 25, 2019, 01:29:52 AM »
Focussing on "the numbers", as you put it, is an example of the streetlight effect. Area and extent are useful in sometimes indicating anomalous regions, regions where one might want to try to figure out what's happening, but nothing more. (Obviously just my opinion.)

Really it just comes down to the weather now.

How ironic then, that the minimum will be defined in terms of area and/or extent. 

I think that we would both agree that the overall decadal decline in the ice is due to the massive forces of climate change.  Beyond that, however, variations in the behavior of the ice usually come largely down to the weather, so I believe your last comment always applies, Jan to Dec.

To me, the weather, the ice, the ocean currents etc are the phenomena being observed, and it is through measurement that we can quantify what is going on.  I fully agree that extent and area measurements have their limitations, especially at this point in the season.  And we should never put too much store by short term bobbles in data sets.  But, to me, that does not mean area and extent are not a vital part of the picture that I continually try to grasp, aided by you and others on this forum.  Without area and extent measurements I would be left floating more than ever in a sea of assumptions -- so to me, while they can be used effectively as 'streetlights', they also produce a diffused, year-long glow that helps illuminate, and even define, the bigger Arctic picture.   :)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 01:36:38 AM by Pagophilus »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2423 on: June 25, 2019, 01:39:37 AM »
But in the ESS (for example) ice is quite thick, and to melt it to near-zero area by September requires major melting in June-July that barely affects area, if at all.
It doesn't look that thick, as we can see in Wipneus PIOMAS thickness on June 15th. I think that we can see an important melt sooner, with the heat that is having on June.


PIOMAS gridded thickness data was upgraded to 15th of June. Volume calculated from thickness is 16.02 [1000 km3]. This is third lowest place behind 2017 and 2012, but the difference with 2012 is really within the error bars that my volume calculation has.

Anyway here is the June animation.

Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2424 on: June 25, 2019, 01:46:01 AM »
2m temperature...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2425 on: June 25, 2019, 02:06:25 AM »
The abrupt change in Arctic conditions this May-June is unprecedented IMO. As 2007 coincided with the start of the Great Recession and 2012 also occurred during a slowdown (although it was less pronounced / possibly less of a factor vs. other things (?)), perhaps this is a partial explanation for the conditions we have seen unfold in 2019. I would expect that a large reduction in SO2 emissions from emerging economies (ahem particularly China due to the trade war) may be resulting in a temporary amplification to global +AGW influenced temperatures.

While China is still a smaller economy than the U.S., it contributes the lion's share to global SO2 emissions. With manufacturing showing signs of serious impact due to the general economic conditions combined with the U.S. tariffs, a 20% reduction in SO2 emissions is probably substantial enough for a .1 or .2F+ of overall AGW, with particularly outsized impact on the Arctic. Why not point to a possible cause if it's staring us in the face?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-industrial-output-grows-at-slowest-pace-in-17-years

Coincidentally or not, 2002 also had a very similar pattern in the Arctic, which is perhaps more extraordinary considering it was 17 years ago. Of course 2019 is much hotter overall, but it also features the warmth signature in the Siberian seas resulting from an early / abrupt melt of snowcover.

It would not be surprising IMO that this is occurring in part due to the disproportionate probably reduction in Asian SO2 emissions that is now underway. That is a big shift in a critical gas for mitigating insolation at ground level. If anyone has any additional numbers re: SO2 by country in recent years it would be great if you can provide bc the data appears pretty sparse.

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2426 on: June 25, 2019, 02:13:53 AM »
Looking ahead to the next week, the models are suggesting that the relatively cooler temperatures over the Barentz and Kara seas over the last week will shift to above normal temperatures.
This the forecast surface air temp anomaly from GFS for next Sunday the last day of June:


epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2427 on: June 25, 2019, 02:16:51 AM »

How ironic then, that the minimum will be defined in terms of area and/or extent. 


That is indeed ironic.

but -


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2428 on: June 25, 2019, 02:23:16 AM »
How ironic then, that the minimum will be defined in terms of area and/or extent. 

Truly. Well, I guess lagging indicators are better than nothing.

but

:D

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2429 on: June 25, 2019, 03:15:30 AM »
How ironic then, that the minimum will be defined in terms of area and/or extent. 

Truly. Well, I guess lagging indicators are better than nothing.


And measurements than estimations ?

....  See, epiphyte, you only THINK I guessed wrong! 

 :D

« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 03:25:23 AM by Pagophilus »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2430 on: June 25, 2019, 03:29:01 AM »
JAXA has dropped 330K in the past 3 days, including 150000 km2 yesterday. Hudson Bay(etc) is melting fast so I expect further largish losses in the short term, despite any export, or the collapse of Siberian fast ice

WindyTV/EC foresee 5 days of northerly winds in Fram Strait averaging 20 kt(37kmh) at the point highlighted on the attached map, starting tomorrow. There are 2 peaks with winds over 40knots along the NE Greenland coast, and around 30 at the point before the wind shifts towards the northeast, and the strongest are nearer to Svalbard. That will push a lot more ice out into the Greenland Sea, maybe increasingly extent and area there for a while, (while further east southerlies push Barents Sea ice and the Atlantic front back)

The models are showing high pressure finally dislodging the Kara Sea low which moves to just south of Svalbard, so focus of incoming continental heat and moisture shifts to  the Kara and Barents Sea, and all the while the Pacific is pushing a massive atmospheric flood over the Pacific sector, covering the Chukchi and half the ESS for days

There's been some impressive intrusions of precipitable moisture through June- a pulse coming in now over the Tamyr peninsular will get to the pole with an  ~30kg/m2 of water according to GFS, I've attached an image from 42hrs into the 18z run on Climate Reanalyser, as well as one from +81hrs showing the influx on the Pacific side, as well as, speculatively, another from way out at 222hrs showing two hammerblows, from the Pacific and Barents/Russia, meeting mid basin, since that seems to pop up at the end in every GFS animation I've looked at over the past few days.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2431 on: June 25, 2019, 03:35:56 AM »
The ice in the ESS region has started to just vanish.  The before and after in just 2 days on modis is remarkable.


We should be getting new images of the ESS on worldview over the next few hours.

Who knows how much ice is ready to go.  We have never seen the ESS get hit like this


And let's not forget we are the solar maximum.




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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2432 on: June 25, 2019, 03:37:51 AM »
Yes, the Kara sea is going to  undergo its "flash melting" in extent and it may be practically done by July...

From memory, PIOMAS had avg ice thickness there around 1metre at midmonth. If I'm correct , since its mostly been cool there till now, I think it may last a bit longer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2433 on: June 25, 2019, 04:53:43 AM »
Yes, the Kara sea is going to  undergo its "flash melting" in extent and it may be practically done by July...

From memory, PIOMAS had avg ice thickness there around 1metre at midmonth. If I'm correct , since its mostly been cool there till now, I think it may last a bit longer

It's been cold, but the ice is so broken and sparse at locations that the 15 % threshold seems could be met quickly. Warm Atlantic water reaching while storms beating?

https://go.nasa.gov/31RXkd6


subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2434 on: June 25, 2019, 05:10:24 AM »
How did the D8-D10 forecasts that were posted here 5/10/15/20/25/30 days ago pan out? I might be mistaken, but it sure seems like almost all of them looked worse than the weather ended up being. That says nothing of the condition of the ice, just pointing it out.

Really? 25C+ on the Siberian shore every day since early June. Phenomena like a 9C dewpoint on Ostrov Kotelny a few days ago. An observation, not a forecast, and hardly an isolated one, June temperatures off the chart in that sector. Huge atmospheric warmth and moisture content? That not extreme enough for you?

The forecasts have been consistently playing out, not bouncing around much

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2435 on: June 25, 2019, 06:49:20 AM »
20190625
cracks and floes suddenly expand in Beaufort sea
melt pond everywhere in most arctic sea ice
I will show no surprise to see all of the sea ice disintegrated into small tiny floes without any intact piece of ice!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2436 on: June 25, 2019, 07:02:51 AM »
As bad as the ice currently looks in the East Siberia Sea, I would argue that the ice same day 2007 was clearly substantially worse.

In 2007 the ESS ice melted our far sooner and faster then any other year, and it wasn't until the end of July that the last ice in the ESS fast ice region was gone.  I'd say the ice in these regions should still last another month or so this time around as well.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2437 on: June 25, 2019, 07:11:18 AM »
As bad as the ice currently looks in the East Siberia Sea, I would argue that the ice same day 2007 was clearly substantially worse.

In 2007 the ESS ice melted our far sooner and faster then any other year, and it wasn't until the end of July that the last ice in the ESS fast ice region was gone.  I'd say the ice in these regions should still last another month or so this time around as well.
In 2007, overall, there was a lot more ice, and if I recall, overall, 2007 actually lost more ice than 2012.

Even if we are not quite up to 2007, if we get similar-but-not-quite scales of melt, the implications are pretty serious.
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2438 on: June 25, 2019, 07:13:34 AM »
As bad as the ice currently looks in the East Siberia Sea, I would argue that the ice same day 2007 was clearly substantially worse.

In 2007 the ESS ice melted our far sooner and faster then any other year, and it wasn't until the end of July that the last ice in the ESS fast ice region was gone.  I'd say the ice in these regions should still last another month or so this time around as well.

If you zoom in, you will find the ice state is quite different 2007 vs 2019

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2439 on: June 25, 2019, 07:22:58 AM »
Just stepping back to offer an aggregate perspective of a central body of ice under attack from all sides.

I would define the central body as a triangle extending from Banks Island to the pole and Greenland PLUS the NW portion of the CAA.

For brevity, I'll ignore areas outside the inner basin which I assume will be mostly ice free at end of season. If the Greenland Sea has ice due to continued export, it comes at the expense of the CAB.

The potential path to that remaining triangle becomes clear. There is a strong installed base of ocean heat all around it with the possible exception of the ESS. Uniquorn's Mercator maps are showing Pacific Ocean warmth flowing in to augment that.

It seems that it would take a major break to stop the Laptev from moving to the pole. Heat and open water begets more heat. The ice in front of it has been thinned quite a bit by heat and the persistent cyclone pushing ice to the east. This thinning us bolstered by Wipneus' mid June PIOMAS map. With a reliable Atlantic partner, the path to a clear ocean on the east side of the triangle is easy to envision.

On the SW side of the triangle you have a similar situation, but less momentum in the form of atmospheric heat. Plenty of open water in the Beaufort and a large pool of 5C water sitting on the coast west of Banks Island. The reverse spin of the gyre associated with the cyclone has left the content of the gyre in crappy condition. Not quite as obvious as the Laptev progression, but not difficult to envision the SW side outside of the triangle becoming ice free either

The Southern portion of the CAA is showing momentum and is being augmented by Atlantic intrusion. Not to difficult to imagine that going.

That leaves us with what seem to the two key areas. The ESS has also been subject to heat, but not quite as much as the Laptev. The shore ice is now coming off rapidly. With very warm established ocean on both side in the Chuchki and Laptev, it's not unreasonable to see a path from the ESS to the pole. But not obvious yet.

That leaves us with the NW CAA and the contents of the triangle itself. The ocean heat present on the Pacific side has the potential to eat into the SW corner of the triangle this year. That's the wild card IMO and the potential path to a record low.

If someone wants to dispute this vision as alarmist hyperbole, I would ask them to point to the locations on the map where they think the ice is safe for the remainder of the season.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 07:41:26 AM by Rich »

bluice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2440 on: June 25, 2019, 07:44:09 AM »

While China is still a smaller economy than the U.S., it contributes the lion's share to global SO2 emissions. With manufacturing showing signs of serious impact due to the general economic conditions combined with the U.S. tariffs, a 20% reduction in SO2 emissions is probably substantial enough for a .1 or .2F+ of overall AGW, with particularly outsized impact on the Arctic. Why not point to a possible cause if it's staring us in the face?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-industrial-output-grows-at-slowest-pace-in-17-years


China’s economy is still growing, not contracting. This should mean also SO2 emissions are still growing, just at a lower pace.

Edit:typo
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 10:23:36 AM by bluice »
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2441 on: June 25, 2019, 08:21:57 AM »

If you zoom in, you will find the ice state is quite different 2007 vs 2019

Are you agreeing the ice was much worse in ESS during 2007 than 2019?  Or disagreeing and claiming the ice was better in 2007 than 2019?  To me there is clearly more areas of open water, and of dispersed ice with smaller individual floes in 2007.
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aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2442 on: June 25, 2019, 08:44:16 AM »
How did the D8-D10 forecasts that were posted here 5/10/15/20/25/30 days ago pan out? I might be mistaken, but it sure seems like almost all of them looked worse than the weather ended up being. That says nothing of the condition of the ice, just pointing it out.

Really? 25C+ on the Siberian shore every day since early June. Phenomena like a 9C dewpoint on Ostrov Kotelny a few days ago. An observation, not a forecast, and hardly an isolated one, June temperatures off the chart in that sector. Huge atmospheric warmth and moisture content? That not extreme enough for you?

The forecasts have been consistently playing out, not bouncing around much

Record temperature, +22.4°C at 06Z à Kotel'Nyj and Td +13.8°C. Even the Td could be a daily  record Tx (daily record for the 25th is 15.4°C and for the 26th +11.7°C)... I agree, the situation in Arctic is exceptionnal, and there is no way we can exagerate what is going on. The former record at Kotel'Nyj wac +20.7°C the 30th of June 1936 : record broken by at least 1.5°C ! On top of that, SST are already at 6 - 7°C locally in the polynia, wich is extraordinarly warm for so early in the season.

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2443 on: June 25, 2019, 08:58:18 AM »

If you zoom in, you will find the ice state is quite different 2007 vs 2019

Are you agreeing the ice was much worse in ESS during 2007 than 2019?  Or disagreeing and claiming the ice was better in 2007 than 2019?  To me there is clearly more areas of open water, and of dispersed ice with smaller individual floes in 2007.

I would say they are close, 2007 is a bit worse, with open water in a different arrangement. but only in ESS the rest of the pack still looks much healthier in 2007.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2019, 09:05:48 AM by Sarat »

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2444 on: June 25, 2019, 09:01:20 AM »

If you zoom in, you will find the ice state is quite different 2007 vs 2019

Are you agreeing the ice was much worse in ESS during 2007 than 2019?  Or disagreeing and claiming the ice was better in 2007 than 2019?  To me there is clearly more areas of open water, and of dispersed ice with smaller individual floes in 2007.

I mean the ice in 2019 has more tiny fracture although they have not experienced tremendous fragmentation yet

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2445 on: June 25, 2019, 09:13:52 AM »
As bad as the ice currently looks in the East Siberia Sea, I would argue that the ice same day 2007 was clearly substantially worse.

In 2007 the ESS ice melted our far sooner and faster then any other year, and it wasn't until the end of July that the last ice in the ESS fast ice region was gone.  I'd say the ice in these regions should still last another month or so this time around as well.

The superiority of 2007 to the scale of fast ice cracks on the New Siberian Islands is very surprising.

Even the freezing season in 2019 was warmer than in 2017.

In 2007, the average temperature in October-May in Tiksi and at the Kotelny was -19.2С and -19.9С. In 2019, the average temperature in October-May in Tiksi and at the Kotelny was -18.2С and -19.9С.

The only explanation could be the stronger winds in 2007 (or their better direction).

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2446 on: June 25, 2019, 09:26:42 AM »
Highlights of the 3 day GFS outlook.

The Laptev is going to get torched by the heat and the tailwind of the ongoing Kara cyclone. Looks really bad.

Fram export will be on high. 15 knot tail winds from the CAB into the Greenland Sea.

Chuchki is also getting torched and has a light wind pushing toward the ESS. That section of the northern sea route should open any time.

The Beaufort cyclone is back. Not very consequential at this point IMO. Keeps extent looking better than reality.

Modest warmth in the ESS. Sea route watch is on.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2447 on: June 25, 2019, 09:34:25 AM »
June 20-24.

2018.

The latest week on Kotelny. The highest temperature in June was 20.7°C 30.06.1936.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2448 on: June 25, 2019, 09:36:46 AM »
The only explanation could be the stronger winds in 2007 (or their better direction).

Or more sharp temperature drops (alternation of sharp warmings and cold snaps).


b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2449 on: June 25, 2019, 09:50:59 AM »
RE: Wind and Fram export.

I think in this GIF you can see quite well the role the wind plays.

Svalbard upper left, Greenland bottom right.

15.06. to 25.06.