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Davidsf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3350 on: July 06, 2019, 03:53:33 PM »
b_lumen and Petm, thank you for correcting my melt extent assumption.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3351 on: July 06, 2019, 04:06:24 PM »
The low concentration ice from the Fram stretching all the way to the pole is concerning. The ice appears to be clearing out north of Svalbard as well. Given the Atlantic side is the sole area in better shape than 2012, this does not bode well.

The Greenland Sea is a graveyard for ice this time of year. Despite higher than average transport through the Fram in June, SIA is very average. If we have aggressive transport of ice through the Fram in the 2nd half of the melt season, a record low is unavoidable.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 04:19:42 PM by Shared Humanity »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3352 on: July 06, 2019, 04:08:05 PM »
A thick floe

But it's cracked!  :-[

How thick is thick here? like 2m?

DrTskoul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3353 on: July 06, 2019, 04:15:01 PM »
A thick floe before its demise...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3354 on: July 06, 2019, 04:17:19 PM »
How thick is thick here? like 2m?
Piomas modelled the area at 2.5m 7 days ago. tbh I was surprised to find this one. I think it was land fast on 30th 27th
Perhaps I should have said The thick floe.
edit: Not dissing piomas, they do a sterling job. :)
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 04:42:49 PM by uniquorn »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3355 on: July 06, 2019, 04:29:43 PM »
It was surprising to see the recent peak of melt extent, the warmth entering Chukchi-ESS in a sort of twisted dipole was bad, but the one over Laptev seemed worse.
It turns out the sensor say the melt extent has been much larger over the past week. Preconditioning, humidity from Pacific, higher baseline temps as we enter July may have played a role.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3356 on: July 06, 2019, 05:35:46 PM »
Lincoln sea looking pretty sad today with a few more warm days forecast.
https://go.nasa.gov/2XvLbHl

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3357 on: July 06, 2019, 05:46:01 PM »
Those rhomboid shaped floes is where PIOMASS sees thick, MYI, some of the thickest ice left in the CAB.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3358 on: July 06, 2019, 05:48:11 PM »
About to say the same, and fracture is propagating and widening all the way from open Beaufort to Cap Morris Jesup. And in the same time Alert is going nuts : http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71355&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2019&mes=07&day=06&hora=18 (monthly record is 20.0 and normal Tx is 6.1°C and max is probably not reached yet)

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3359 on: July 06, 2019, 05:49:08 PM »
I doubt the 80N band remains saved from the onslaught, perhaps enjoying a temporary relief, by the SMOS map is pretty clear
Holy smoking toledos.  If the ice is that liquid on top, and the situation continues, then the subtler processes of melting (general ongoing energy input from above and below) may be all that's needed, no big storm/weather event drama required.  :o

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3360 on: July 06, 2019, 06:04:39 PM »
Beautiful Worldview imagery of the Kara/Barentz today.

Rapidly melting 'rubble' ice in the N/E Kara Sea.  A little bit of (wind compacted) ice left in the S/W Kara Sea.

Streamers of melting ice coming off the remaining ice in the S/W Kara Sea (E Novya Zemlya in frame)

Sharp edges of wind-concentrated ice on the shrinking tongue of ice extending from E of FJL into the Barentz (winds came from the S) contrasting with the more ragged leeward side.  This must have reduced the AMSR2 extent figures a bit, given the other ice tongue was subject to the same winds.

The ice tongue off Svalbard is also almost gone (last image).

The Barentz may now start warming up more?

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3361 on: July 06, 2019, 06:11:39 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck


ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3362 on: July 06, 2019, 06:16:39 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck

There's more clearly:


Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3363 on: July 06, 2019, 06:27:36 PM »
Those rhomboid shaped floes is where PIOMASS sees thick, MYI, some of the thickest ice left in the CAB.
Given the location of much of that thicker ice, and given the fact that there has been much clockwise rotation of the main pack towards the Atlantic, it would follow that ice has been piling up on the poleward side of these islands for some time.   

I therefore cannot help wondering whether the extra thickness on the poleward sides of these islands is at least partly caused by extensive ice ridging in these areas thickening the ice rather than by MYI somehow occurring in relative isolation in these three areas.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3364 on: July 06, 2019, 06:39:48 PM »
Latest GFS 12z op run hints of another 4-5 days with bad weather for the ice. After that we might see more ice friendly weather.

At D4 we are at July 10. The question is whether this is too late or not to put a decent brake on the heavy ice loss we have seen? If so, I will not be too surprised if the first ten days of July will see above average volume losses followed by more seasonable losses when next update from PIOMAS is out.


Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3365 on: July 06, 2019, 06:58:53 PM »
The above "red line" charts don't make sense to me, or I'm missing something.

If you go to NSIDC concentration, they show Hudson to be almost ice free for this date in 2012, with a few lonely chunks.

The spatial comparison tool for extent shows the same thing.

Something is off here.

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3366 on: July 06, 2019, 07:10:15 PM »
Worldview gave us a clear view of the area around the Lyakhovsky islands, and it's looking bad as expected. Where there was fast ice a few days ago, the coast is now bare, and what ice is left is completely shattered.


Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3367 on: July 06, 2019, 07:11:29 PM »
The above "red line" charts don't make sense to me, or I'm missing something.

If you go to NSIDC concentration, they show Hudson to be almost ice free for this date in 2012, with a few lonely chunks.

The spatial comparison tool for extent shows the same thing.

Something is off here.

This is what I get when I run the NSIDC comparison tool.  Same as you are describing.  It looks like he either messed up on the Hudson, or he is using a different data set.   

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3368 on: July 06, 2019, 08:14:53 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Sea surface temperature departures from 1981-2010 normal for Jun 28-Jul 04 courtesy @NOAA_ESRL. Departures increasing over the Gulf of Alaska and SSTs ≥ 7.5C (13.5F) above normal in parts of Norton & Kotzebue Sounds and Chukchi Sea east of Wrangel Island. #akwx @Climatologist49


El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3369 on: July 06, 2019, 08:33:35 PM »
RE: hot Chukchi and Bering Seas

I wonder whether this means that the freezing season will be even more amazing than the melt season - meaning that these "hot" seas could take ages to refreeze come autumn...

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3370 on: July 06, 2019, 08:42:16 PM »
RE: hot Chukchi and Bering Seas

I wonder whether this means that the freezing season will be even more amazing than the melt season - meaning that these "hot" seas could take ages to refreeze come autumn...

Of course it's true. This region with the highest rate of warming on the planet. Here, over 100 years, it could warm by 6 degrees.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v4.cgi?id=USW00026616&dt=1&ds=14

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3371 on: July 06, 2019, 09:32:29 PM »
The ECMWF has got ridiculously warmer than 00Z, but at least confirms the WAA over ESS (now getting really deep by day 5) and then stuff that may flop in next run

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3372 on: July 06, 2019, 09:52:27 PM »
EC 12z op is really bad! Unlike the GFS 12z run, the model run is NOT breaking down the effect from the FSW (earlier post wrt Judah Cohens tweet).

Both moďels are quite consistent in that next four days or so will be impacted by bad weather for the sea ice. Bwyond that, the models are diverging.

Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3373 on: July 06, 2019, 11:17:24 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck

It's always so hard to compare any year to pre-storm 2012.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3374 on: July 06, 2019, 11:28:54 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck

It's always so hard to compare any year to pre-storm 2012.

Why is that? Please explain.

maltose

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3375 on: July 06, 2019, 11:34:45 PM »
I would have thought that a post-storm 2012 would be harder to compare because of the uniqueness of that event.

Tunnelforce9

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3376 on: July 07, 2019, 12:16:52 AM »
I'm not sure how much soot came from the fires but i would be surprised if albido didn't hit a big record this year.
Quote
in June 2019 Arctic wildfires released 50 megatons of carbon dioxide. In the first couple days of July the Arctic Circle has already released 4.5-5 megatons of CO2.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qv79b5/unprecedented-wildfires-are-burning-across-the-arctic-circle

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3377 on: July 07, 2019, 12:23:08 AM »
I think the Titanic analogy is so apt here. The ship looks like it could plausibly survive (from an outsider's view) up until nearly the very end.

https://youtu.be/rs9w5bgtJC8?t=8175

The last ten minutes is much more dramatic than the first two hours, but the same rate of sinking is ongoing for most of the time. I.E., VOLUME is VASTLY more important than AREA and EXTENT because the last 1,000,000 KM^2 of area will disappear alongside the last 1,000 KM^3 of volume, and this becomes especially true as one approaches 0.

Congrats, we are all on board!  8)
 
Also: it is crazy that PIOMAS still includes substantial + volume in Hudson Bay versus 2012 / etc. The advantage 2019 has going into July... and if the 12z EURO verifies? Oh my.

In today's EOSDIS shot (7/6) you can see a huge area of the ESS (?) that is about to disappear in the span of a few days. HYCOM indicates this ice is now falling under .25-.5M of thickness all at once.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 12:47:39 AM by bbr2314 »

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3378 on: July 07, 2019, 12:54:41 AM »
I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size. 

I was criticized for saying that the Beaufort does not appear to have become a kill zone because the ice is taking so long to melt. 

Maybe that will change and those floes will go “poof.”   But, if the fractured ice in the Beaufort holds on for a couple more weeks, it might be hard for this season to win on extent. 

It will clearly be a terrible year for the ice.  I have been saying that since May.  However, the Beaufort currently holds the key.  The export in the Atlantic seems likely to continue keeping numbers higher in that region.  The lift off from the CAA is very troubling!   We might have an ice island at the end of the melt season. 

But if the Beaufort floes continue to stand pat, I’m not sure this year beats 2012 on extent. 

If some strong storms move into the CAB in August I will rethink my position, but trying to be optimistic, I think the floes in the Beaufort are helping right now.

EDIT: I should add that Friv stated this a couple weeks ago when he said the ice was being “protected.”  I gave him a hard time back then, but now I’m willing to eat my words and agree he was right.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3379 on: July 07, 2019, 12:59:51 AM »
<snip>
If we go seriously low this year, I think it will be via a long whimper rather than a BANG.
<snip> "loves sudden changes"<snip>
<snip>
<snip> (Images of 2012 vs other declines in August and the effect of the GAC)
<precisely> what I was getting at Rod.  My argument is that 2019's steady losses could likely continue where 2012's did not, and could make up the difference without a dramatic event.

And to everyone else... I understand Catastrophism as a paradigm... I wrote about it as a Geologist studying J Harlan Bretz's work on the Great Spokane Flood.  Nature loves her steady states as well, except when you hit a limit in some dimension of that system (like Glacial Lake Missoula getting too full...).

Here, we don't have an "ice dam" to fail.  Instead we have the monstrous accumulation of heat taking place in open water and import, combined with a weaker pack that permits export of ice into killing zones.

Loss won't necessarily go any faster, or be that much higher, but they could continue driving significant losses longer than in past years.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 01:07:07 AM by jdallen »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3380 on: July 07, 2019, 01:11:20 AM »
Chukchi gut punch, June 26 vs. July 6. What a small storm or two can do to this weak ice!

P.S. Rod, I keep telling ya, the Beaufort ice *is* melting and is doomed. ;) Just look at the SSTs there, not to mention the SSTs in between the adjacent dispersed CAB floes is also rising now...

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3381 on: July 07, 2019, 01:13:00 AM »
Laptev may accumulate some weather this week.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3382 on: July 07, 2019, 01:19:39 AM »
   ^^ How does one accumulate wind ? I assume it's outside the body ? .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3383 on: July 07, 2019, 01:27:37 AM »


P.S. Rod, I keep telling ya, the Beaufort ice *is* melting and is doomed. ;) Just look at the SSTs there, not to mention the SSTs in between the adjacent dispersed CAB floes is also rising now...

If you are right, this will be a record year.   But, they are going to have to melt soon for that to happen.

The good thing about the melting season is that it is very short!

Today, the Beaufort is cloudy, but the floes that we can track between the clouds have not changed in size. 

Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3384 on: July 07, 2019, 01:33:32 AM »

...

It's always so hard to compare any year to pre-storm 2012.

Why is that? Please explain.

I was thinking completely in terms of predicting if it would beat 2012 for the record low or not.  I guess that has been more present in my mind the past couple of days and an important piece of context for that statement.

Other than that it is always very interesting and informative to compare. :)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3385 on: July 07, 2019, 01:35:03 AM »

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3386 on: July 07, 2019, 01:35:31 AM »
   ^^ How does one accumulate wind ? I assume it's outside the body ? .. b.c.

 ;D I was wondering the same thing.

I would have thought the opposite. Intentionally accumulating until a discrete location can be found or simple physics overcomes any reluctance. 

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3387 on: July 07, 2019, 01:52:21 AM »
I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size. 

Bottom melt will finish all those floes by some time in August. It is 2-3 m thick ice constantly imported from CAB. Not something to happen in a couple of weeks. It will ruin your extent numbers? Not sure, but it will definitely finish with some of the thickest blocks around. This didn’t happen before the 21st Century, so we can call it a “millennial” born out of AGW.

Edit. Attached similar situation in July 5 2016 (Beaufort sea early open and insolation, thick 2-4 m ice continuously imported from CAB, very fragmented ice). There is a block of 80 km of diameter and 4m thickness which remnants are visible in the 25 august image, and that melted out in September.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 02:12:04 AM by Sterks »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3388 on: July 07, 2019, 02:08:22 AM »
The ice looks like shit.

I got a nickname for all my guns
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3389 on: July 07, 2019, 02:11:13 AM »
I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size. 

Bottom melt will finish all those floes by some time in August. It is 2-3 m thick ice constantly imported from CAB. Not something to happen in a couple of weeks. It will ruin your extent numbers? Not sure, but it will definitely finish with some of the thickest blocks around. This didn’t happen before the 21st Century, so we can call it a “millennial” born out of AGW.


I’m grasping at straws here hoping things won’t be too terrible.  I’m always torn on whether the new record will be good or bad. 

Maybe it gets more people to realize that AGW is a big deal and we should do something about it?  In the age of Trump I doubt it.  If we need a BOE for a wake up call I hope it waits until he is long gone! 

I have kids I worry about, and things are not looking bright for their future 😥

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3390 on: July 07, 2019, 02:13:00 AM »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3391 on: July 07, 2019, 02:32:35 AM »

I’m grasping at straws here hoping things won’t be too terrible.  I’m always torn on whether the new record will be good or bad. 

Maybe it gets more people to realize that AGW is a big deal and we should do something about it?  In the age of Trump I doubt it.  If we need a BOE for a wake up call I hope it waits until he is long gone! 

I have kids I worry about, and things are not looking bright for their future 😥
A blue ocean sooner than later would be positive IMO, hey many billionaires and politicians have kids and would feel like you. It would help move governments and corporations in the right direction IMO. Why they didn’t push the nuke button after Nagasaki? Because, everybody wants a future with houses, people, dogs, a secretary to..., etc.
Back to the ice, an occasional storm is really the worst for Beaufort these days, it churns the floes and promotes mixing of water, that is, bottom melt.
But in any case top melt is been picking up big these last days.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3392 on: July 07, 2019, 02:35:42 AM »
Probably won't happen but my God.


Bye bye Arctic ice.


All the ice South of 85N might melt out this year.

Except near Salvbard
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3393 on: July 07, 2019, 03:00:00 AM »

All the ice South of 85N might melt out this year.

Except near Salvbard

If something like that happened wouldn't the remainder just get blown right off the pole?

tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3394 on: July 07, 2019, 03:31:00 AM »
As the Arctic Sea Ice melt season advances from the summer solstice through the period of maximal sea ice melt I thought it might be useful to post a simple list of factors that are important for understanding what is occurring.

Just one comment. Since the greatest source of energy available to this system is the sun (solar insolation) and I understand how the temperature gradient of relatively fresh vs salty water comes into play here, I am still curious why there is not more discussion regarding the effect of the change in arctic albedo. It would appear to be a very significant factor in 2019.

Has more energy than usual been added to the system this year? If so, what effect does that have?


Anyway, here is my list.

Arctic sea ice: Factors affecting the melt

The weather;

Surface air temperature

High and low pressure systems

Solar irradiance/albedo/cloud cover

Humidity/precipitation

Wind/dipoles/sea ice export

Wind/dipoles/cyclones/mixing of water temperature gradients

(Water temperature/ocean currents/salty vs fresh water temperature gradient*)

The condition of the ice;

Sea ice age/thickness

Preconditioning

Melt pond formation

Fragmentation

Distribution – Dispersion vs Concentration

Relevant data;

Weather info

Satellite observations

Model based assessments

On site observations

Historical observations

Speculation…




tzupancic

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3395 on: July 07, 2019, 03:41:16 AM »
Feel free to add your additions or comments to my list. Or to comment on my point about the relevance of solar energy to the arctic sea ice system.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3396 on: July 07, 2019, 03:43:55 AM »
That is a good list.  I’m pretty sure we try to address all of them.  If you read through the comments on this thread, I think you will find answers to your questions.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3397 on: July 07, 2019, 03:54:20 AM »
I therefore cannot help wondering whether the extra thickness on the poleward sides of these islands is at least partly caused by extensive ice ridging in these areas thickening the ice rather than by MYI somehow occurring in relative isolation in these three areas.

that's exactly how it is and if partly then big partly ;) no doubt IMO

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3398 on: July 07, 2019, 04:05:25 AM »


P.S. Rod, I keep telling ya, the Beaufort ice *is* melting and is doomed. ;) Just look at the SSTs there, not to mention the SSTs in between the adjacent dispersed CAB floes is also rising now...

If you are right, this will be a record year.   But, they are going to have to melt soon for that to happen.

The good thing about the melting season is that it is very short!

Today, the Beaufort is cloudy, but the floes that we can track between the clouds have not changed in size.

with size you mean two-dimensional measurement but if we assume some surface and bottom melt things may look a bit different.

i used the example many times but i've seen lakes covered 90% with ice (extent) at the evening and being ice-free in the morning. all depends on thickness now, if it's less than a meter average it will probably melt, if it's significantly thicker than 1 meter it could or could not, depending on currents, winds, waves, mixing and insolation. IMO that ice is less than a meter thick AVERAGE) hence will melt. to be verified, feel free to do so, for the thickness data is not accurate enough to come up with more than an educated guess that hints to less than a meter IMO.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3399 on: July 07, 2019, 04:06:36 AM »
The ice looks like shit.

a bit too white still for "shit" (both kinds) but i know what you mean

EDIT: and agree of course, no doubt about that.