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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3800 on: July 12, 2019, 06:38:41 PM »
Predicting the weather 2 weeks out. Cool.

Where you see a prediction, there is none.

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3801 on: July 12, 2019, 07:06:10 PM »
I see several model runs that look like the ridging returns, one way or another.
As expected, imho.

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3802 on: July 12, 2019, 08:04:42 PM »
While I will take the experts' words on the unimpressive nature of current stormier weather, I do have a question regarding that weather to pose:
I understand the importance of isolation in bringing solar energy into the arctic, but what about bringing somewhat cooler but high humidity air over the ice and transferring the energy of condensation onto the ice surface? Isn't this actually a possibly greater transfer of energy vs. the effect of clear dry air and the solar transfer? And that would assume that no actual rain was falling which would only add more energy directly into the ice surface.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3803 on: July 12, 2019, 10:00:26 PM »
One more record to be registred.

The earliest date below 8M km2

The shortest ever "slot" from 9M down to 8M km2.

Old record was 7 days in 2005 !

EDIT: Source - http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 11:15:55 PM by philopek »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3804 on: July 12, 2019, 10:06:00 PM »
I am no expert but the latest EC forecast seems quite dull, I must admit. It doesn't even have that little cute concentrated low over Beaufort.
I think this is the best news for ice: no moderate or strong storm, not much heat pulling (except for a while from the American side), no dipole, just a flat arena for weak lows dance around. We'll see how long it lasts. This is the next 7-8 days.

Viggy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3805 on: July 12, 2019, 11:03:28 PM »
One more record to be registred.

The earliest date below 8M km2

The shortest ever "slot" from 9M down to 8M km2.

Old record was 7 days in 2005 !

That is a amazing chart! Thanks for the new resource to add to my collection.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3806 on: July 12, 2019, 11:05:22 PM »
Will there be a tally of number of weather records broken?  It seems like a new record in 2019.
I am not a scientist

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3807 on: July 12, 2019, 11:11:30 PM »
There's something interesting at the very end of the current GFS run. A compact low comes from the Pacific through the Chukchi. Obviously no one should take a model so far out as likely to happen as predicted, but it's worth noting the model coming up with this type of scenario. The last (and I think only?) time a low came through there this year, a few weeks ago, the Chukchi retreat accelerated dramatically over a wide front.

Broader point: We don't know what the weather will bring even one week from now. The models are changing fast and disagreeing. Basics of the system such as SSTs are diverging from previous norms. The actual weather could slow down the melt, or it could accelerate it, dramatically. What would happen to ice like this if a GAC comes??

This is the best month to watch.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3808 on: July 12, 2019, 11:15:12 PM »
That is a amazing chart! Thanks for the new resource to add to my collection.

That reminded me that I should have included the link, sorry:

http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png


petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3809 on: July 12, 2019, 11:16:56 PM »
The shortest ever "slot" from 9M down to 8M km2.

Eyeballing, it looks like it also ties for the shortest 1 M drop period, tied with 10-9 M 2007 and 2013, correct?

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3810 on: July 13, 2019, 12:16:18 AM »
I keep looking more and more at the imagery and what I can see, as opposed to strictly the models this year. In conjunction with the growing sea surface temp anomalies (which again indicate substantial warmth continuing/expanding in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea, much of the ice above Alaska and Russia appears to be pure rubble with a moderate amount of sun at any given time (less cloud cover than the central pack). Anyways, I don't know what the expected time frame is to melt such a massive/substantial region, but the ice certainly just looks awful. All broken, shattered, thin, and I suspect more expansion due to low compaction in that region.

Anyways, just more stuff that piques my interest!



pls!

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3811 on: July 13, 2019, 01:49:21 AM »
Predicting the weather 2 weeks out. Cool.

Where you see a prediction, there is none.

I think the weather would have to return to not only ridging but a dipole anomaly by no later than July 25th to have a shot at the record.

It just doesn't look like that is happening.

I'm curious how many weeks ahead of time was the GAC of 2012 being discussed.  Can any long time observers help me out?

I have no desire to get into petty arguments (at least on this thread), but I think it is important to recognize that just because there is no evidence of something happening 10+ days away, that doesn't really point to anything.
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3812 on: July 13, 2019, 02:06:29 AM »
You left out the part where he said:

“But I guess you never know.”

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3813 on: July 13, 2019, 03:27:27 AM »
It's highly unlikely that we see the weather forecasts bomb on the pattern change.

There are many factors backing this happening.

I know that this news can be disappointing.  But this is how this works.

Even if there isn't a new record this year it will end up a top 3 melt season and volume loss could end up as a new record even if Extent isn't.

Area has no chance to be a new record.

I have been at this a long time and then disdain and snide remarks by people emotionally invested in a new record is pretty sad.

« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 03:41:26 AM by Frivolousz21 »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3814 on: July 13, 2019, 03:52:57 AM »
You left out the part where he said:

“But I guess you never know.”

Actually, the first time I included the whole thing. The time you are referring to I was responding to blum-kra, and I only included the part from Friz that showed that it more or less was a prediction. This has now gone full retard.

I really like what Friz has to say in general, and appreciate the perspective. I just get annoyed with comments about the weather 10+ days away.

I have been at this a long time and then disdain and snide remarks by people emotionally invested in a new record is pretty sad.

I don't know of any posts from anyone that show emotional investment in a new record.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3815 on: July 13, 2019, 04:23:28 AM »
If not one more cubic meter of ice melted or degraded for the rest of the season, I would personally not be disappointed in the slightest. It would actually be the best thing ever -- just out of sheer surprise.

That said, I also don't believe for a second any predictions about the end state of this melt season, bad or good; not yet anyways.

Why not just watch and be fascinated? We are watching in real time the collapse of a system that has been stable for thousands of years, for the entire duration of the development of modern human civilization. Even if it takes 50 years for all the ice to melt out, it would be beyond astounding. (My guess is more like 10, but who knows?) In my opinion we should reconsider our time scales.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3816 on: July 13, 2019, 05:32:31 AM »
Laptev bite has reached 80°N now.

Well...the bite ate 80 a week ago. It is now at 80.5!

Along with the temperature drop, the main effect of this cyclone will be to push some sacrificial ice south into the Laptev bite, which will temper its advance north for now, and maybe lower SSTs a bit

While its a big improvement on recent days, temperatures are still at or mostly a bit above average except a small area of the southern Beaufort according to GFS 5 day anomaly forecast today on Climate Reanalyser, and the warmest region with sea ice is the CAA and CAB north of it and Greenland,. Maybe not warm enough, but it keeps things interesting. With strong winds at times coming off areas of the coasts there, the pack might lift off in places

And there's a lot of heat in western Siberia available if some system develops to draw it further north

wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3817 on: July 13, 2019, 06:29:36 AM »
Two days of small losses in JAXA.

Looking at the Breman sea ice maps I don't see where large extent losses could come from in the next few days...

icefree

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3818 on: July 13, 2019, 07:05:21 AM »
Considering the arctic ice extent is on a melting trend and there are graphs such as the death spiral and considering that 2019 is right at the low end and has been the lowest only a day or so ago that anything is possible but lower is not a bad prediction.

There are other sites such as arctic news that has some graphs projecting the first BOE for 2020, there was another "expert" a while back predicting 2016 plus/minus 3 years.

There are a few years on the Jaxa chart that if the lines were shifted to attach to where the 2019 line ends now that would result in a record low!

Using this technique of analysis, I think there is a very good chance 2019 breaks into a new record low extent because of all the AGW factors and also the various natural positive feedback mechanisms.

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3819 on: July 13, 2019, 07:17:27 AM »
As the weather forcecast gets dull, the weather reporters start a cat fight ... and the drama continues ;)

Talking about a dull drama. While the forecast looks boring indeed, the melt train might steam on relentlessly. At least that seems to be the outlook of the TOPAZ4 Arctic Ocean system from Copernicus' Marine environmental Monitoring Systems.

The forcecast is based on the HYCOM model by the Unviersity of Miami, coupled with a sea ice model and the ECMWF forecast (details and model validation can be found here); data assimilation every week or so (argo floats etc.), grid size ~12km

To get an idea of the melt rate I have attachte 3 pics, for the 5th, 13th and 21st of July (best compared if opend in a new tab and by switching between them). Thickness set to 1 meter max - just to have a better grip of what is going on around the edges.
Late edit: Looking at the Experimental Sea Ice Forecast form the ESRL [Snow and Ice > Sea Ice Tendencies], the weak low could cause some strong and widespread bottom melting on the Siberian Side (ESS, Laptev,Chukchi ..), in parts more than 1.4 cm/day)

As for all forecasts out more then a couple of days: take it with a huge pinch of salt (even more so the comparison with 2017 and 2016 below in the follow up)

Cheers
« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 11:40:19 AM by S.Pansa »

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3820 on: July 13, 2019, 07:20:10 AM »
For further comparison: here the situation on the  21st of July in 2016 and 2017 (not sure if the data is really comparable though); 2012 is not available unforunately

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3821 on: July 13, 2019, 07:21:07 AM »
Two days of small losses in JAXA.

Looking at the Breman sea ice maps I don't see where large extent losses could come from in the next few days...
Maybe it will add on if we have small amounts on several of them...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
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Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3822 on: July 13, 2019, 09:37:20 AM »
July 8-12.

2018.

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3823 on: July 13, 2019, 09:55:09 AM »
In discussing the rate of melting, it's good to always bear in mind that it is not accurately measured by the day-by-day extent drop.

A big low pressure system is the dominant feature in the Arctic Basin at the moment, as shown below. The counter-clockwise winds cause dispersion -- 'spreading out' -- which in turn tends to increase the extent even though no new ice is being formed.

That may be one reason for the lower extent drops over the past couple of days -- the ice melting is being partly counteracted by the spreading of the ice. However, dispersion is generally bad for the health of the ice because it creates gaps in the ice that the sun can heat up and, also, the movement of the ice through the water exposes it more to whatever heat is in the water.

So at the moment the melting will tend to be worse than is represented by the daily measured extent drops.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3824 on: July 13, 2019, 10:23:07 AM »
July 8-12.

2018.
The last two days show frontal creep on the Atlantic side, and a probing tongue in Beaufort.

I was curious as to whether the numbers showed the same, here are the last 6 days from NSIDC

The green numbers are when extent goes up from the day before.
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plg

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3825 on: July 13, 2019, 11:22:02 AM »
That is a amazing chart! Thanks for the new resource to add to my collection.

That reminded me that I should have included the link, sorry:

http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png

On the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/) there is a link in the top section to Jim Pettit's climate graphs (https://sites.google.com/view/pettitclimategraphs) which takes you to an overview of a lot of interesting graphs, the one above is one of them.

Another fun graph from that page:


This shows a "what if" scenario, i.e. if we have the same melt rate as previous years form this day, where do we end up? Speculations about 2nd place and not a new record seems reasonable, but the graph is certainly not a prediction, only an aid to see trends.
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pauldry600

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3826 on: July 13, 2019, 12:08:49 PM »
Still hvnt changed my prediction of 5th or 6th place.

The Ice to the North of Canada has slowed and is travelling back to coast.

That cliff we just had was the peak for me and I just think August and September will be slower.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3827 on: July 13, 2019, 01:00:17 PM »
I'd be very surprised if it doesn't finish 1st-3rd in area.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3828 on: July 13, 2019, 01:01:29 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

With so much ice of a similar thickness there must come a time when huge losses occur as this thickness of ice goes in one big run of losses?

Maybe the recent years were just a few weeks short of the high melt that would have been enough to see significant losses from this mass of sub 2m FY ice?

This year , and the 'melt momentum' it has accrued, might have enough momentum to see this 'bulk' area of similar thickness fail come mid Aug (without a storm to help it along!)

I'm waiting to see if ice starts disappearing from the central mass as much of that ,by winter's end, was thinner ice?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......
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Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3829 on: July 13, 2019, 01:03:53 PM »
Considering the arctic ice extent is on a melting trend and there are graphs such as the death spiral and considering that 2019 is right at the low end and has been the lowest only a day or so ago that anything is possible but lower is not a bad prediction.

There are other sites such as arctic news that has some graphs projecting the first BOE for 2020, there was another "expert" a while back predicting 2016 plus/minus 3 years.

There are a few years on the Jaxa chart that if the lines were shifted to attach to where the 2019 line ends now that would result in a record low!

Using this technique of analysis, I think there is a very good chance 2019 breaks into a new record low extent because of all the AGW factors and also the various natural positive feedback mechanisms.

I am in agreement here, I don't personally care that we see a new low this year, I am seeing the wider implications that this season sets the stage for and I don't see more than 2 years left for the ice, because of amplifying feedbacks. It's a big picture thing, it amplifies every day, every year. This melt season will leave nothing left but weak ice, refreeze will likely start later and melt season will start earlier with nothing but F grade ice to ward off heat.

Then again, I don't know anything, I've only been really watching the ice since 2012, but 2012 seemed exceptional to me as a beginning of what would come, and I think this years' melt season is a taste of the beginning of this shift.

Also, I believe you are referring to the work of Wieslaw Maslowski, he sat down with Guy McPherson (not sure how people feel about him here, I am neutral) and in his view, 2025 is a fair assessment of when we will lose sea ice, but I think that is just conservative estimate seeing as his first prediction was wrong. 
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Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3830 on: July 13, 2019, 01:07:32 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.
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ajouis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3831 on: July 13, 2019, 01:19:30 PM »
I see a lot of predictions reassuring us that 2019 will not hit first place, but the melting momentum is built in june and early july, as remarked earlier most of July 2012 was average and had cloudy bouts. All the indicators are in the red, and we can now see edge melting picking up speed, with a three fronts assault, widening and deepening of the laptev bite, quick retreat of the ess, continuous slow retreat and worsening of concentration in the chuchki. It also looks like the atlantic will activate in a couple of weeks with lower export, and the channels that possibly won t see sustained loss of extent ie beaufort and greenland are participating in the thinning of the pack with the export. When comparing with other years, that edge melting was the trademark of the later season but didn t use to be as widespread as early, because this season as seen early melting of several landfast seas, so we will probably have a new record of melting through that method. Concerning the other mechanism of melt in the later season, which is destruction by storm, i share the concern of many that fiven the ssts and awp, we might mechanically have a very stormy august, so even if it doesn t rival the gac, it will get close. This is enough to run a course parallel to 2012 and maybe (like 50/50) be first. My own prediction is that either we will see extreme compaction towards the atlantic islands, and a pack broken in two through the pole with an atlantic side and pacific side, or that we will see half the pack disappear, from the caa cab crack to the laptev bite, leaving only a very small pack close to a boe. The first scenario depends on a halting of the fram export and continuous meltponding (through rain) on the cab, whilst the other one require a gac like storm, but we will see what happens

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3832 on: July 13, 2019, 01:53:36 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.

Its comes down to merely a matter of the weather as to whether there is another record low ie a single storm is going to make the difference. There's that feeling of horrified fascination again. :o

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3833 on: July 13, 2019, 02:20:25 PM »
Ugh! I know the effect will likely be far less than I imagine, but if the arctic is suddenly 'stirred' in the opposite directing its normally heading, I wonder how much turbulence under the ice might draw up the warmer waters below.  Last year Beaufort kinda suddenly started disappearing around this time of year seemingly without much of a driver... I remember it being mostly under clouds before that so I'll have to assume I'm remembering a L that might have driven the ice in the opposite direction. 

Likely just drawing at straws.... Storms stir up the layers of the ocean just as it is... perhaps the ice moving counter rotation adds to it??
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3834 on: July 13, 2019, 02:25:12 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.

Its comes down to merely a matter of the weather as to whether there is another record low ie a single storm is going to make the difference. There's that feeling of horrified fascination again. :o

Got to remember a GAC may not lead to a record low if such a deep low hovers around the pole as I don't think it will affect extent all that much if at all but it will definitely increase the dispersion and make the ice around the pole look in a poor state. If a GAC occur at lower latitudes the results could well be different  but I don't think it's conclusive that if a GAC occurs a record low will be likely.

I still stand by what I said during June that I believe a record low is less likely because of the lack of dispersion across the CAB and as far as I can see that is still the case. Still time for that to change and a deep low could alter things. I think also the reason people think 2nd lowest is more likely is because of the huge gap between 1st and 2nd place and indeed I think this year has a chance of 2nd place with a total of 4 million.

Now it will be interesting how the ice on the Pacific side of the basin respond to this low pressure spell as in theory extent should slow down but the downside the ice will spread out into those very warm SSTS which could melt the ice in anycase, one to watch.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3835 on: July 13, 2019, 02:55:05 PM »
Quote
Got to remember a GAC may not lead to a record low if such a deep low hovers around the pole as I don't think it will affect extent all that much if at all but it will definitely increase the dispersion and make the ice around the pole look in a poor state.

Wouldn't increased dispersion in above 0 waters still do a good deal to the ice? As I understood, it was compaction that keeps the ice safe from faster melt.

Quote
If a GAC occur at lower latitudes the results could well be different  but I don't think it's conclusive that if a GAC occurs a record low will be likely.

I didn't know this was a factor, so it's only lower latitude pressure systems that are bad for ice?
I don't understand what is causing the anomalous warming in the Pacific, perhaps it has something to do with the jet stream craziness. I don't know if that is seasonally dependent, but it seems like if that were to continue beyond melt season, it would be bad news because anything that would pull that water into the Arctic would likely do some damage.

I don't understand how that water hasn't intruded further into the basin.


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Burnrate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3836 on: July 13, 2019, 04:49:59 PM »

..., there was another "expert" a while back predicting 2016 plus/minus 3 years.
...

Do you remember what that was from?  I thought it was 2018 ±3 years.  I've been looking but haven't been able to find it and thought it would be interesting to read it again during this time.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3837 on: July 13, 2019, 05:42:44 PM »
Experimental Sea Ice Forecast form the ESRL [Snow and Ice > Sea Ice Tendencies], the weak low could cause some strong and widespread bottom melting on the Siberian Side (ESS, Laptev,Chukchi ..), in parts more than 1.4 cm/day)

Great resource, thanks!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3838 on: July 13, 2019, 05:58:24 PM »

..., there was another "expert" a while back predicting 2016 plus/minus 3 years.
...

Do you remember what that was from?  I thought it was 2018 ±3 years.  I've been looking but haven't been able to find it and thought it would be interesting to read it again during this time.

I believe that this might be what you are looking for:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wies%C5%82aw_Mas%C5%82owski

but perhaps you should confirm it with the "expert" icefree.  ::)


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3839 on: July 13, 2019, 06:37:14 PM »
See also this post from 2017 and the links it contains for "2016" as a possible BOE year, per experts.  (yes: Peter Wadhams and Wieslaw Maslowski)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3840 on: July 13, 2019, 07:12:13 PM »
The weather forecasts look great for dramatically slowing ice melt compared to what we have seen most of the summer.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3841 on: July 13, 2019, 07:59:04 PM »

Now it will be interesting how the ice on the Pacific side of the basin respond to this low pressure spell as in theory extent should slow down but the downside the ice will spread out into those very warm SSTS which could melt the ice in anycase, one to watch.

I think that the winds in this cyclone will stir up the ocean enough to crush the smaller pieces of ice in between the bigger pieces of ice in an already weakened ice pack, thus reducing the overal amount of ice. But I'm new to this, and predictions are changing, so I'm only guessing here...
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3842 on: July 13, 2019, 08:19:14 PM »
The weather forecasts look great for dramatically slowing ice melt compared to what we have seen most of the summer.

Yep. And we've melted off most of the easier to melt ice.

At end of May we had 6.7M km2 of ice (area) outside the CAB and 3.0M km2 inside the CAB.

Now we have 2.8M km2 inside and 2.8M km2 outside.

The degree of difficulty in melt is increasing as the easy stuff on the shallow perimeter has shrunk considerably.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3843 on: July 13, 2019, 09:15:46 PM »
It makes sense that the CAB is considered a "region" of the Arctic Ocean. It's right in the middle of a contiguous body of water. No brainier, right?

But for any meaningful analytical purpose, the properties of the CAB are so different from the rest of the Arctic that it makes no sense to combine the CAB with the rest of the Arctic. We should consider it a separate entity.

Lot's of excitement about a potential record setting year when you look at the #'s of the consolidated Arctic, but the CAB is saying not so fast.

Same with BOE projections that show we're losing 270km3 per year and causing people to predict a BOE in 10-15 years. Makes no sense to bundle the CAB and non-CAB together.

The rapid retreat of the ESS is exciting stuff, but that fire isn't burning into the CAB. It's going to take something exotic and different to take a heavy bite into the CAB. Possible? Yeah.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3844 on: July 13, 2019, 09:27:17 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Sea surface temps around Alaska for the week of July 5-11 remain far above normal. Largest departures (>6C) now in the Chukchi &  western Beaufort Seas, and Bering & Gulf of Alaska also plenty warm. #akwx #Arctic #sst @Climatologist49 @KNOMnews @amy_holman @ajatnuvuk @IARC_Alaska


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3845 on: July 13, 2019, 09:42:56 PM »
Attached is the ECMWF surface pressures averaged over the next 5 days. The general flow from north of CAA towards the Laptev could cause some rifting near the pole in my humble opinion.  It's also going to continue pushing CAB ice towards the Atlantic, as ice motion moves to the right of wind direction.  Not worth looking beyond day 5, changes too much.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3846 on: July 13, 2019, 09:59:42 PM »
Easy to forget that 2012 had below average heights and temperatures over almost the entire basin from July 13th through the 26th, yet still produced significant drops due to all the preconditioning of the pack in June and early July. Even with below average temps at 850/925mb, the surface is still typically above freezing at this time of year. We may still see significant area drops even during the colder stretch. I would expect to -- given that it will be warmer over the CAB during this period than it was during 2012.

As long as the -NAO pattern sticks, it will be tough to keep cooler than normal temps over the CAB, CAA and Atlantic portion of the basin.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3847 on: July 13, 2019, 10:21:21 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Sea surface temps around Alaska for the week of July 5-11 remain far above normal. Largest departures (>6C) now in the Chukchi &  western Beaufort Seas, and Bering & Gulf of Alaska also plenty warm. #akwx #Arctic #sst @Climatologist49 @KNOMnews @amy_holman @ajatnuvuk @IARC_Alaska



The warm seas near the coast are certainly impressive. But is there any ice left in the region? Not much.

The heat has to travel much farther and faster (away from shore) than it has previously in order to maintain the melting. momentum. Otherwise, we're looking at a relatively inert body of warm water.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3848 on: July 13, 2019, 10:23:47 PM »
Experimental Sea Ice Forecast

Forecast top, bottom, lateral, snow melt @ hrs 12 & 36.

Consistently high (according to the provided scale) bottom melt in ESS and to a lesser degree the Laptev. Also sporadic high top melt in various areas including the Beaufort. Haven't been watching this long enough to know if it's unusually high, low, or normal. But I'll certainly watch from now on and see how well it corresponds to observed losses (insofar as they can be observed).

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #3849 on: July 13, 2019, 10:29:21 PM »
The warm seas near the coast are certainly impressive. But is there any ice left in the region? Not much.

The temperature of water near melting ice is always close to the freezing point, due to physics. That doesn't mean that heat (energy) isn't being transferred from the areas of high SSTs to the nearby ice (e.g. see melt forecasts in my post just above).