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JR-ice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4050 on: July 18, 2019, 03:15:50 AM »
My condolences, Neven.  Even though I don't know you personally, I have appreciated your years of work here.  Peace.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4051 on: July 18, 2019, 03:40:25 AM »
Surely it is a good time to remember that Neven has provided the Blog and Forum as a free service. He has been with the burden of the cost all these years. It will be great if we can give some moral but also some economic support this time. Your support and appreciation may be more important than the amount you choose to donate.

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Very good point Juan.
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4052 on: July 18, 2019, 03:49:52 AM »
You are literally using sea ice extent lost crime to quantify ice melting.  Or volume loss or thickness loss which is a three dimensional observation.

I am literally not. I've spoken of extent, exclusively, so don't know where your confusion lies. Anywho, it's an assumedly inadvertent Straw Man, and when the premise is wrong, what follows is typically of little value, but I will get to the rest when I can. Depends on my computer's battery.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4053 on: July 18, 2019, 04:06:59 AM »
What Friv says. The ice was very thin in large regions of the Arctic when the GAC came. It finished all this thin ice, and extent plummeted. Had it not appeared on the scene, most of that thin ice would have melted anyway until mid-September. The GAC did make a significant contribution, but not as significant as the extent numbers show.

I'm not very familiar with the weather history of 2012. There was clearly plenty of momentum by this stage. JAXA shows a big week  from July 23-30 with a 7 day loss of 810000 km2, then a lag eg losing only 20K on 1/8(these lags often seem to presage a big fall to follow- was there some general spreading of the fringes through a low pressure setup?), but maintaining its lead over 2007, before plummetting again August 3 loss was 120K. Losses accelerated thru the the GAC,, peaking at 190K on August 8 and then 'easing' to 70-80000km2/day for the weeks following.

by the end of July  2012 was heading for the record. The GAC did push the melt edge much forward,, so the inner CAB ice was exposed earlier, so I suspect that enhanced the melt friendly conditions somewhat from then on

My condolescences to Neven and your family at losing your dad. Judging by his son he must have been quite a fellow

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4054 on: July 18, 2019, 04:24:48 AM »
You are literally using sea ice extent lost crime to quantify ice melting.  Or volume loss or thickness loss which is a three dimensional observation.

OK, so I had time and hopefully my battery doesn't die while I'm typing this...

As I said, you are making illogical assumptions. I have *only* talked about extent. Not being an idiot, I *do not* equate that with area nor volume.

Quote
Between July 15th and August 5th 2012 which was the day before The Great Arctic cyclone bombed-out.

I understand your point, but you are also cherry picking. The storm formed on the 2nd. It entered the Arctic Ocean on the 5th, officially, which means that is when the *center* of the cyclone hit the water's edge. These storms are huge. Anyone who has ever seen a hurricane tracked knows the hurricane effects come long before the eye passes, so, no, the effects do not occur only beginning the 5th. That's just incorrect logic. The drop begins on the second and goes through the 9th. This fits perfectly with the timing of the GAC.

The quality of the ice at that time, the concentration, the area, are all different issues. They are not measures of extent. Was the ice area and volume already low? Sure! Why not?! When did I say otherwise? Never, that's when.

In fact, I have said more than once it would be interesting, and telling, to look at ASI Area over the same time to see what the change in extent really means. I mean, it could have been compaction, melt out, aliens, whatever. I have not addressed that. I have said the extent dropped 990 over those seven days, and that, unfortunately for your efforts, remains an absolute fact. At least via JAXA.

You're arguing with yourself, Frivolous. It's a bit frustrating, but also really funny. (But, then, I  teach language communication for a living and find humor in miscommunications like this.)

Quote
So almost all of the Ice Melt Away.

Using sea ice extent to quantify this means nothing.

Good thing I haven't been, then, eh?!

LOL...

Quote
I'm just going to animate July 15th and August 5th and if you can't see did decimation on the Pacific side of the Arctic between those dates right before the Great Arctic cyclone took place then you are being disengenous.

Please really try to understand this: You are arguing a point I have quite literally not made, at all, period.

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Its pretty freaking obvious that on July 15th you can see that the ice had that mostly whitish color.

LOL... what's "pretty freaking obvious" is you just don't seem to understand what I have been saying. So be it. Others have.

Quote
The GAC came along and finished the job.

Great! Who are you arguing with about that...? I have never said anything to contradict that... at all... in any way. Extent does measure the imaginary circle drawn around *all* the ice over 15%, right? So when I say the ice extent fell 990k... it did... right?

Thanks for the entertainment. I hope you can see you are arguing points that only you think have been made. I'm sure you are acting in good faith, so no big deal, but you can probably use your time more productively on some other issue.

Cheers

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4055 on: July 18, 2019, 04:30:37 AM »
What Friv says. The ice was very thin in large regions of the Arctic when the GAC came. It finished all this thin ice, and extent plummeted. Had it not appeared on the scene, most of that thin ice would have melted anyway until mid-September. The GAC did make a significant contribution, but not as significant as the extent numbers show.

A bit of an assumption, but certainly possible. Still, there are two massive drops in 2012 none of the other years ('07, '10, '11, '16) have and their anomalies equal the difference between '12 and '11/'16, and one of those weeks was in June.

That seems of interest to understand and quantify.

Maybe I'm just odd, but I am a patterns person, and this sort of thing catches my eye... and usually means something.

Need to look at both weeks in terms of area and extent and see what we see. Until that is done, this issue won't be fully settled.

And why is everyone ignoring the (IIRC) 935k loss in one week in June 2012?

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4056 on: July 18, 2019, 04:43:27 AM »
What Friv says. The ice was very thin in large regions of the Arctic when the GAC came. It finished all this thin ice, and extent plummeted. Had it not appeared on the scene, most of that thin ice would have melted anyway until mid-September. The GAC did make a significant contribution, but not as significant as the extent numbers show.
... before plummetting again August 3 loss was 120K. Losses accelerated thru the the GAC,, peaking at 190K on August 8 and then 'easing' to 70-80000km2/day for the weeks following.

by the end of July  2012 was heading for the record. The GAC did push the melt edge much forward,, so the inner CAB ice was exposed earlier, so I suspect that enhanced the melt friendly conditions somewhat from then on

While I haven't been addressing anything other than extent, this interpretation fits the facts much more comfortably for me.

------------------------------------------


Quote
My condolescences to Neven and your family at losing your dad

Indeed. Lost mine quite young and family already separated, so never felt too immediate. So many since then, including a wife.

I will say this, it can be a beautiful, if sad, experience if one chooses to make it so and goes through it with the right people.

May your's be a beautiful sadness, Neven.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4057 on: July 18, 2019, 05:10:30 AM »
The DMI volume chart is hopeless, at best a week or 2 out of date. It's showing a ice over half a meter in open water in the Laptev bite today, and great swathes of ice in Baffin Bay in these 2 maps dated 16 July from Bremen and DMI - though what date the DMI really refers to, who knows

I've attached the comparison as both a gif(click to and an mp4. The MP4 plays fine locally but its been a bit of a lottery trying to get them to play on the forum, at least in my browser

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4058 on: July 18, 2019, 05:25:55 AM »
My condolences Neven.


Last week (July 10-16), 3-day lagging median.

Click to animate.

Much appreciating the fine graphics displays made by the scientific community and very nicely presented on this forum. They give some of the best insights into what is going on in the Arctic.

Adding in July 17 reinforces that the Pacific-side sea ice is already collapsing to well inside the 75N latitude line.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4059 on: July 18, 2019, 06:24:28 AM »


The 18z GFS is back to the idea of another surge of Pacific heat and moisture, starting about 5 days out and intensifying to the end of the run.

Windy/EC is in general agreement. Lows over Chukotka and the ESS act like cogs to draw a stream from way south, while northern Alaska bakes again. Clear skies over the Chukchi sea under the warm breeze will boost SSTs further. Dew point of 2C over the ice. Clouds form once the humid ocean air has travelled a certain distance over the ice, for a good longwave irradiation. This will hasten the doom of the huge area of visibly thinning ice north of the Chukchi sea

Eli81

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4060 on: July 18, 2019, 07:37:03 AM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
Our condolences, Neven.
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UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4061 on: July 18, 2019, 07:56:35 AM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.
Our condolences, Neven.
_________________________
To everyone:

Surely it is a good time to remember that Neven has provided the Blog and Forum as a free service. He has been with the burden of the cost all these years. It will be great if we can give some moral but also some economic support this time. Your support and appreciation may be more important than the amount you choose to donate.

Great idea, thanks for the recommendation

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4062 on: July 18, 2019, 08:30:08 AM »
The DMI volume chart is hopeless, at best a week or 2 out of date. It's showing a ice over half a meter in open water in the Laptev bite today, and great swathes of ice in Baffin Bay in these 2 maps dated 16 July from Bremen and DMI - though what date the DMI really refers to, who knows

I've attached the comparison as both a gif(click to and an mp4. The MP4 plays fine locally but its been a bit of a lottery trying to get them to play on the forum, at least in my browser

I think maybe the DMI map is not trying to show exact extent, merely the estimated thickness if there had been any ice there, and then when calculating volume it combines that with separate data for area, to get volume. This means that where the ice area/extent is near zero, volume will also be near zero, even if the thickness map shows a significant thickness there.

For this reason I think it is also exaggerating the extent in which it does thickness modeling, to cover absolutely everything, even scattered rubble. You can f.ex. see in worldview that there is still ice in the middle of the Baffin bay, floes several kilometers wide. These may be old ice floes exported through the Nares strait, which started out many meters thick, so it's fair to assume they still have some significant thickness left, like the model estimates. It's just that they are so few that they are below the 10% extent cutoff that Bremen/NSIDC etc uses.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4063 on: July 18, 2019, 08:37:26 AM »


The 18z GFS is back to the idea of another surge of Pacific heat and moisture, starting about 5 days out and intensifying to the end of the run.

Windy/EC is in general agreement. Lows over Chukotka and the ESS act like cogs to draw a stream from way south, while northern Alaska bakes again. Clear skies over the Chukchi sea under the warm breeze will boost SSTs further. Dew point of 2C over the ice. Clouds form once the humid ocean air has travelled a certain distance over the ice, for a good longwave irradiation. This will hasten the doom of the huge area of visibly thinning ice north of the Chukchi sea

Not only the 18Z, but all the models are back with the idea of a dipole by D5 - D6 and worsening weather conditions for sea ice aftert that.

Clenchie

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4064 on: July 18, 2019, 09:22:47 AM »
Given that this is the most watched thread on the forum, I have to announce that sadly my father passed away today, and so I won't be able to take care of things here for a week or so, maybe longer.

Sorry to hear of your loss Neven.  My condolences - thinking of you and yours.
Procrastination is......... er, tell you tomorrow.

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4065 on: July 18, 2019, 09:25:01 AM »
Not only the 18Z, but all the models are back with the idea of a dipole by D5 - D6 and worsening weather conditions for sea ice aftert that.

I'm an absolute noob re GFS, but stumbed on the 500mb GFS geospotential height while looking for this GFS z thingy and it seems to show a dipole setting up twice, two days out and around 4 days. and by dipole, I mean the positioning where ice gets blown out the Fram.

Relevant?

psymmo7

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4066 on: July 18, 2019, 09:27:56 AM »
Neven, my condolences

Paddy

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4067 on: July 18, 2019, 10:40:40 AM »
My condolences as well, Neven. 

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4068 on: July 18, 2019, 10:42:58 AM »
Not only the 18Z, but all the models are back with the idea of a dipole by D5 - D6 and worsening weather conditions for sea ice aftert that.

I'm an absolute noob re GFS, but stumbed on the 500mb GFS geospotential height while looking for this GFS z thingy and it seems to show a dipole setting up twice, two days out and around 4 days. and by dipole, I mean the positioning where ice gets blown out the Fram.

Relevant?


much more so than a week or two in 2012 .. perfect as that is for the 2012/2019 comparison thread .

  the Fram exporting dipole is a setup by day 7 followed by Canadian side High . Temperatures rise .. upper atmosphere 850 temps by as much as 20'C . Ppt returns to rain . The ice will be perfectly primed for any GAC , MAC , or LAC that happens to drop by in the following 6 weeks before minimum .
  Of course none of this may happen .. b.c.

but my forecast of 1st or possibly 2nd remains .. no matter what the weather .
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 11:36:49 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4069 on: July 18, 2019, 11:17:36 AM »
Sincerest condolences Neven.

Re: GAC, I don't think one is a necessity, 5-7 days of persistent winds from the right direction could have a similar effect in my opinion.
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4070 on: July 18, 2019, 11:37:05 AM »
You have our support Neven, as always.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4071 on: July 18, 2019, 01:10:00 PM »
more record Canadian heat

VeganPeaceForAll

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4072 on: July 18, 2019, 02:07:16 PM »
One reason for the very high melt momentum is the temperatures over the Arctic.
This image is from the program 'Nasa eyes on Earth'. Everything within the blue circles is below 0 degrees. However everything on the whole map is above -1.8 C, the melt/freeze temperature of the Arctic. See attached photo.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4073 on: July 18, 2019, 02:31:01 PM »
You and your family are in my prayers.

Alison

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4074 on: July 18, 2019, 02:40:11 PM »
I lost my father three years ago Neven and I know it is hard. My condolences.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4075 on: July 18, 2019, 02:57:11 PM »
Slater's model fell below 4 M sq km previously but in the past few days it has been oscillating around 4. Considering that the current forecast is for September 5, it seems that the model's forecast will bottom out at slightly below 4 M sq km, putting 2019 into a solid second place.

Oscillidous

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4076 on: July 18, 2019, 03:55:39 PM »
more record Canadian heat

Wiki for Churchill. MB says 34.0C is highest for July, I guess one could be pedantic and argue this may be the "earliest" we have had that warmth in July, but it's not the warmest
When the ice moves it cuts deep grooves
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4077 on: July 18, 2019, 04:01:45 PM »

You are talking about something else. That is the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. Not really near the area being discussed.
This was not in reference to the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. If so, then there's not much to say about that, except that it is in better shape than many years.
The arm being referred to, is an arm of thicker ice that often sticks out from the pack, pointing at (but not joined to) Siberia.

Refer to my screenshot of Worldview above, to see the state of the ice in the arm. As good as many other years.

Here it is below at the end of the melt-season of last year.

PS. The image shows thickness, not concentration.

Why do you keep saying I am talking about something else?

I am showing you why the model is bad with pictures of rubble where it says there is concentrated ice. How many times can I repeat this in simple English? Stop ignoring what I brought up.

Compare the model's 2019 output to reality of rubble nearly up to the 80 line.
That ice in reality has no thickness compared to what the model says:

You are talking about a different area Mr. seaicesailor..I mean... TeaPotty. Sorry.

If you can't see that, then I can't help you.

The model is as good as anything. If you are on the web, and point out something about models in climate-science, and some denier comes on and says "That model is bunk", you would call them a climate-science denier.
Your rational for the inadequacy of the DMI model is weak and parochial. Once again. It's a thickness map. Not concentration or extent.
Now go back to the worldview image I posted of the 'arm' and witness that it is not "rubble".
See ya, Mr. Potty.
Over and out.
- Thomas Barlow
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 04:15:00 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Glenn_Tamblyn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4078 on: July 18, 2019, 04:22:13 PM »
Neven

My condolences. I lost my father quite some years ago but it was still a shock.

Life has an incredible knack for grounding us. Times of loss and grief can have an enormous potential for stripping away the dross of life and letting us focus on what matters.

Be well Neven.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4079 on: July 18, 2019, 05:04:54 PM »
the value of pms .. Neven can read at his leisure and respond in kind rather than search for posts that may be 10 or 20 pages back when he returns or maty never read .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4080 on: July 18, 2019, 05:14:14 PM »
the value of pms .. Neven can read at his leisure and respond in kind rather than search for posts that may be 10 or 20 pages back when he returns or maty never read .. b.c.

 :)

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4081 on: July 18, 2019, 05:20:34 PM »
Red Dog Dock , Alaska is as far north as anything I can find that gives daily/hourly air, seawater at 3meters below mean low water, wind speed and direction. You can scroll back to watch wind direction and how it affects water temperature . So currently water temperatures are hitting 18C  ( 64.4 F ) and they have been running hot for several days/weeks. That is about 2 degrees F above historic high water temperatures for July at that station. Two degrees above what any invertebrate there has ever experienced is a damn big anomaly so I would imagine there are biological ramifications . I have only fished/been diving as far north as Norton Sound so I don't know what underwater life looks like further  north but whatever clams or inverts are there are stressed.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=rdda2

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4082 on: July 18, 2019, 05:41:35 PM »

You are talking about something else. That is the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. Not really near the area being discussed.
This was not in reference to the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. If so, then there's not much to say about that, except that it is in better shape than many years.
The arm being referred to, is an arm of thicker ice that often sticks out from the pack, pointing at (but not joined to) Siberia.

Refer to my screenshot of Worldview above, to see the state of the ice in the arm. As good as many other years.

Here it is below at the end of the melt-season of last year.

PS. The image shows thickness, not concentration.

Why do you keep saying I am talking about something else?

I am showing you why the model is bad with pictures of rubble where it says there is concentrated ice. How many times can I repeat this in simple English? Stop ignoring what I brought up.

Compare the model's 2019 output to reality of rubble nearly up to the 80 line.
That ice in reality has no thickness compared to what the model says:

You are talking about a different area Mr. seaicesailor..I mean... TeaPotty. Sorry.

If you can't see that, then I can't help you.

The model is as good as anything. If you are on the web, and point out something about models in climate-science, and some denier comes on and says "That model is bunk", you would call them a climate-science denier.
Your rational for the inadequacy of the DMI model is weak and parochial. Once again. It's a thickness map. Not concentration or extent.
Now go back to the worldview image I posted of the 'arm' and witness that it is not "rubble".
See ya, Mr. Potty.
Over and out.
- Thomas Barlow

You shouldn’t post here if you can’t emotionally handle being wrong.
Others have also posted images showing much rubble where the DMI model shows high sea ice thickness, certainly at odds with other models.

But, I’m sure ur just gonna reply with ur usual logical fallacies. Truly childish and rude.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 05:48:40 PM by TeaPotty »

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4083 on: July 18, 2019, 05:50:31 PM »
Again, simple observation shows that arm is almost non-existent, and the thickness claimed by the model isn't there.

You are talking about something else. That is the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. Not really near the area being discussed.
This was not in reference to the Beaufort and Alaskan coast. If so, then there's not much to say about that, except that it is in better shape than many years.
The arm being referred to, is an arm of thicker ice that often sticks out from the pack, pointing at (but not joined to) Siberia.

Refer to my screenshot of Worldview above, to see the state of the ice in the arm. As good as many other years.

Here it is below at the end of the melt-season of last year.

PS. The image shows thickness, not concentration.
You keep using that ugly thing for thickness? Naughty naughty :P
The state of the ice in about 1/2 of that arm is rubble, never seen something like that (when the clouds permit). As for thickness I prefer PIOMAS
On the thin ice of modern life

LDorey

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4084 on: July 18, 2019, 06:03:38 PM »
Sorry for your loss Neven, best wishes to you and your family

Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4085 on: July 18, 2019, 06:09:25 PM »
Neven,
I rarely post but regularly read this site. You have built a great community and do a great job leading it. Your ethics, patience and integrity are astounding. I have no doubt that your parents were phenomenal people as judged by just one facet of their life, you. My condolences.

LDorey

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4086 on: July 18, 2019, 06:14:08 PM »
The Atlantic looking quite comfortable settling down on to the north of Greenland at 34m salinity (according to mercator model). A noticeable pulse from the Fram Strait apr10-jun1
mp4 runs from mar21-jul16

Hrm that solid infiltration through  the bearing straight is also concerning, if that in the chukchi shallow shelf starts to fill up with saltier water and a big storm hits, the potential for some mixing out into the freshwater could be devastating to... hrm... well on the "plus" side there's not much ice left there to melt... but  if it can start a mixing processing and salt water keeps flowing in from the pacific.... anyone know a real time   source for currents and temperature / salinity depth profiles for the bearing straight? I've poked around google with no luck...

LDorey

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4087 on: July 18, 2019, 06:31:39 PM »
**Hrm not sure this means what I thought it did at first, grr, oh well there's also fraction of first year ice in each area it should be combined with and without that its somewhat misleading... if I have time later I'll load the actual geo files and play around in snap to see if I can get it to overlay nicely, viewer beware :)**

This is cool, I don't  know that I've it seen before or at least  didn't pay much attention to it... but younger ice is generally easier to melt, and esp if it's less than a year old as its more salty irrc and has a higher melting point anyway this could spell trouble for the  ice between  the CAA and the Pole... Edited for clarity and resized image to something a bit smaller and  added  2016/2017/2018 and associated minimum melt maps... it's also interesting how "spotty" the sections older than one year are compared to the solid red blocks of previous years goes to the general state of rubble most of us are observing on the sat images...


Source:
http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=ARCTIC_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHYS_002_001_a
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 07:10:16 PM by LDorey »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4088 on: July 18, 2019, 07:10:43 PM »
The Coriolis effect tends to make the water flowing into the Arctic, from both the Atlantic and Bering strait, turn right. The warm water in the Bering strait goes into the Alaskan Coastal Current that flows eastwards on the north slope and may also go into eddies on the Chukchi shelf. In the fall the water may sink below fresher surface water forming the "summer water layer". This melting season heat stored from last year may be melting ice that has pushed from the CAA into the Beaufort sea.

You can see the mixing up of the summer water layer heat in recent buoy profiles from the Beaufort sea. That heat is helping to melt the thick multi-year ice imported from the CAA.

The extraordinarily warm water that we see now along the Alaskan coast will not directly affect the ice in the central Arctic but the heat will have indirect effects this year and next year. The continuing build up of heat in the Beaufort sea is leading to "Pacification" of the Alaskan side of the Arctic ocean and is playing a major role in multi-year sea ice decline.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html

Abstract 

Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990-2015) document a long-term increase (~0.01Sv/yr whole record, ~0.02Sv since 2000) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic.  Between 2002 and present (2015), all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (~0.8Sv).  The record-length maximum (2014: 1.2�0.1Sv) is 70% higher record-length minimum (2001: 0.7�0.1Sv), corresponding to a ~1/4year reduction in the flushing time of the Chukchi Sea (to ~4.5months from ~7.5months).  The transport increase results from stronger northward flows (not fewer southward flow events); the velocity distribution's annual mode ranges from <25cm/s to >40cm/s, a 60% increase in speed and a 150% increase in kinetic energy, a metric which scales with the flow's impacts on bottom suspension, mixing and erosion. 



Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4089 on: July 18, 2019, 07:17:07 PM »
Hrm that solid infiltration through  the bearing straight is also concerning, if that in the chukchi shallow shelf starts to fill up with saltier water and a big storm hits, the potential for some mixing out into the freshwater could be devastating to... hrm... well on the "plus" side there's not much ice left there to melt... but  if it can start a mixing processing and salt water keeps flowing in from the pacific.... anyone know a real time   source for currents and temperature / salinity depth profiles for the bearing straight? I've poked around google with no luck...

In my mind, the danger is not that warm, saline water infiltrating the Chukchi from the Pacific will melt ice currently in the Chukchi. Because there's really barely any ice currently in the Chukchi to melt.

On the other hand, a real concern is that this continues the process of converting Chukchi hydrology to more closely resemble Bering (or Pacific!) hydrology. That's actually more dangerous to the cryosphere in general than Atlantification because of the bathymetry involved; the risk is a long-term state change for a basin rather than just a slow(-ish) advance of conditions along the Arctic/Atlantic boundary.

The Chukchi is perhaps uniquely vulnerable in this regard, being both comparatively shallow and directly adjacent to a more traditionally "oceanic"-behaving ocean.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4090 on: July 18, 2019, 07:45:28 PM »
I understand your point, but you are also cherry picking. The storm formed on the 2nd. It entered the Arctic Ocean on the 5th

It wasn't the GAC alone. There are several cyclones in 2012 apparent on Worldview throughout July and even June. Looks increasingly likely we will see similar in 2019.


P.S. Total area continues its rapid decline:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-all-cmpare.png
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 07:54:15 PM by petm »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4091 on: July 18, 2019, 07:53:14 PM »
The Coriolis effect tends to make the water flowing into the Arctic, from both the Atlantic and Bering strait, turn right. The warm water in the Bering strait goes into the Alaskan Coastal Current that flows eastwards on the north slope and may also go into eddies on the Chukchi shelf. In the fall the water may sink below fresher surface water forming the "summer water layer". This melting season heat stored from last year may be melting ice that has pushed from the CAA into the Beaufort sea.

You can see the mixing up of the summer water layer heat in recent buoy profiles from the Beaufort sea. That heat is helping to melt the thick multi-year ice imported from the CAA.

The extraordinarily warm water that we see now along the Alaskan coast will not directly affect the ice in the central Arctic but the heat will have indirect effects this year and next year. The continuing build up of heat in the Beaufort sea is leading to "Pacification" of the Alaskan side of the Arctic ocean and is playing a major role in multi-year sea ice decline.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html

Abstract 

Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990-2015) document a long-term increase (~0.01Sv/yr whole record, ~0.02Sv since 2000) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic.  Between 2002 and present (2015), all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (~0.8Sv).  The record-length maximum (2014: 1.2�0.1Sv) is 70% higher record-length minimum (2001: 0.7�0.1Sv), corresponding to a ~1/4year reduction in the flushing time of the Chukchi Sea (to ~4.5months from ~7.5months).  The transport increase results from stronger northward flows (not fewer southward flow events); the velocity distribution's annual mode ranges from <25cm/s to >40cm/s, a 60% increase in speed and a 150% increase in kinetic energy, a metric which scales with the flow's impacts on bottom suspension, mixing and erosion. 


The Chuckchi sea's sea ice loss and resulting warmth may have profound effects, where the warm sea is warming the Beaufort gyres halocline, potentially slowing sea ice growth. We should worry if the Chukchi is above 13°C

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6114986/


The doubling of BG halocline heat content over the past three decades appears attributable to a warming of the source waters that ventilate the layer, where this warming is due to sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea that leave the surface ocean more exposed to incoming solar radiation in summer. The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition, lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has consequences far beyond the summer season. Strong stratification and weak mechanical mixing in the BG halocline ensure that significant summertime heat remains in the halocline through the winter.

With continued sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea, additional heat may continue to be archived in the warm halocline. This underscores the far-reaching implications of changes to the dynamical ice-ocean system in the Chukchi Sea region. However, there is a limit to this: Once the source waters for the halocline become warm enough that their buoyancy is affected, ventilation can be shut off. Efficient summertime subduction relies on the lateral surface front in the NCS region between warm, salty water that is denser to the south and cooler, fresher water that is less dense to the north. For longer-duration solar warming (that is, longer-duration ice-free conditions in the region), SSTs on the south side of the front may become warm enough (around 13°C, under the assumption of a 1.5-month ice-free period dominated by solar absorption) that the lateral density gradient is eliminated [see (24)]. It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics of the Arctic halocline. In the coming years, however, excess BG halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.


Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4092 on: July 18, 2019, 07:53:35 PM »
My condolences, Neven. To lose one's father (happened to me 30 years ago) is a hard time.
I use a phrase of one of Paul Hardcastle's song to keep the sad feelings as acceptable as possible: "You may be gone, but you'll never be forgotten."

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4093 on: July 18, 2019, 08:11:33 PM »
The storage of heat in the basin proper via the Chukchi pathway is a big concern (some research has pointed to that fact recently). Eventually that heat will build up and disrupt the halocline and years like this, where summer SSTs have soared, aren't helping.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4094 on: July 18, 2019, 09:33:35 PM »
The storage of heat in the basin proper via the Chukchi pathway is a big concern (some research has pointed to that fact recently). Eventually that heat will build up and disrupt the halocline and years like this, where summer SSTs have soared, aren't helping.

That is why the freezing season might even be more interesting than the melting season. The past 2-3 years saw a big change in the behaviour of the Bering/Chukchi. If they become like the Barents then one of these years the attack of the CAB will start one month earlier than usual and that might be enough to kill it...

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4095 on: July 18, 2019, 09:54:16 PM »
The storage of heat in the basin proper via the Chukchi pathway is a big concern (some research has pointed to that fact recently). Eventually that heat will build up and disrupt the halocline and years like this, where summer SSTs have soared, aren't helping.

That is why the freezing season might even be more interesting than the melting season. The past 2-3 years saw a big change in the behaviour of the Bering/Chukchi. If they become like the Barents then one of these years the attack of the CAB will start one month earlier than usual and that might be enough to kill it...

That's probably how it will go down. The changes in the Chukchi and Barents/Kara in the long run are the lynchpins because they allow shoaling of warm Pacific and Atlantic waters. Once they warm and shoal enough, they will be able to attack from the bottom and eliminate summer sea ice earlier and earlier in those regions (with variability, of course). Add in a bad weather year and that will likely prove the tipping point. 2016 was probably 2 weeks away from having a remnant rump ice pack similar to how it will look in the future.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4096 on: July 18, 2019, 10:11:49 PM »

You shouldn’t post here if you can’t emotionally handle being wrong.
Others have also posted images showing much rubble where the DMI model shows high sea ice thickness, certainly at odds with other models.

But, I’m sure ur just gonna reply with ur usual logical fallacies. Truly childish and rude.
Psst, Seaicesailor (edit: I mean, Mr. Potty), you just accidentally used your other handle - 'sailor' -  in your second reply. Just thought I'd let you know.
Enjoy your continued denialism of the photographed evidence. ;D ;D ;D
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 10:17:12 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4097 on: July 18, 2019, 10:35:55 PM »
EPS and GEFS starting to lock on to the idea of a return of a dipole at D5-D6. More significant portion of the ensemble members have been switching to this idea over the last day or two.

A return of a more classical dipole for the last week of July would be a big deal wrt to getting to the record.

UCMiami

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4098 on: July 18, 2019, 11:01:38 PM »
Now that more breaks in the cloud over the CAA have appeared the gaps in the ice are readily visible  and the speed of break-up and melting are easier to track daily in Worldview. This actual part of a fairly average schedule for the CAA. In the last two days a 50km chunk of ice has broken free at the mouth of the McClure strait and CAA in from the Amundsen is disintegrating rapidly. The western side of Ellesmere is also showing significant open water now instead of just melt ponding.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-07-17-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-3517354.666666665,-2377320.1621432994,1301589.3333333347,237975.8378567004&ab=off&as=2019-06-07T00%3A00%3A00Z&ae=2019-06-14T00%3A00%3A00Z&av=3&al=true

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #4099 on: July 18, 2019, 11:02:44 PM »
Neven is gone and the children are acting up.  ::)

Put a cork in it, act like adults.