7/26/2012 stood at 6.51M km sq. on this date, a drop of 110k.
7/25/2019 stands at 6.51M km sq. 2019 needs a drop > 0k km sq. for a record low on this date.
...Looks like a recipe for an extant drop of 80 to 110. 95k, then.
Or something.
Or something wins as the reduction came in at 124k, 19k higher than I estimated, for another record low of 6.39M km sq. So, yes, bbr has been proven right... it's hard.
7/27/2019 stood at 6.37M km sq. on this date, a
big drop of 140k.
7/26/2019 stands at 6.39M km sq. 2019 needs a drop > 20k km sq. for a record low on this date.
Pretty likely, but the winds today are no friend for compaction. Everything from the Alaska coast around the entirety of the Siberian coast and around to Svalbard is set for expansion. I'd expect a small number for the 27th. Only the heat present makes me not want to call an increase. Let's say -50k, but really could be an increase in extent.
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8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 96.33k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (15 days)
Upcoming conditions with the dipole, et all., should drive consistently large extent drops through the 30th or more (though maybe not the 27th). Warm temps in the upper atmosphere, dipole shoving ice toward Franz Joseph, et al., and a myriad of large and small cyclonic structures projected into the 30th = "Martha! I'm comin', Martha! It's the Big One!"
Maybe.
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 62.86k km sq. for a record low on this date. (51 days)
Big days dropping this slowly. Is a big early August setting us up for a run at the record? Gotta get through that GAC period first... then I'll get more excited about this stat if '19 comes in under '12 on 8/10.