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Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5750 on: August 16, 2019, 07:46:54 PM »
Since we're in thight race to the bottom the question i legit as to how much the relatively large "Artifacts" circled in red, contribute to the numbers (km2) that are often based on these satellite data?

I wonder why the Aral Sea is still present in this map in its early 1960s size. It has dried out almost completely; main parts of the former Sea bed is white salt. Could this be mis-detected as ice? They should actualize their map! (And, by the way, climate reanalyser should do the same; here the Aral Sea still appears as a lake with temperatures differing (much) from the surrounding land!)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5751 on: August 16, 2019, 08:11:34 PM »
The blowtorch is hitting the northern Laptev again. I wonder what that rain will do to the ice. The temperature of the ocean has gone down again, so I guess now we wait to see if it goes up again after today's weather?

This GIF starts @ 2019-08-16 00:00 UTC
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 11:25:07 PM by Freegrass »
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5752 on: August 16, 2019, 08:21:38 PM »
Atmospheric heat showing up before saying bye. Look at those 850 mPa anomalies reaching +10C on Monday.
An eventful season, and one month until it’s done.
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5753 on: August 16, 2019, 11:36:49 PM »
The 850 mPa above overlaid with latest AMSR2 concentration using a very rudimenrary tool...
It seems the ESS corner is going to suffer most the heat but the winds will be stronger at Laptev. In any case, it is a swift beat to all this peripheral ice.
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Ossifrage

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5754 on: August 17, 2019, 12:00:41 AM »
It looks, very tentatively, like "normal" flow (clockwise, leading to south export) is trying to reassert itself in the PGAS, but I'm not going to make any definitive proclamations on one day of satellite images.

On the other hand, I will make proclamations about Massey Sound, which is just a brutal place for the ice to die right now.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5755 on: August 17, 2019, 04:22:30 AM »
The Beaufort sea ice is almost gone. The warm water contributes the most. The GIF shows Aug 15th-16th is terrifying on ice melt and SST anomaly. The steady and warm water will probably destroy .........the whole thing?
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 04:28:54 AM by peterlvmeng »

grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5756 on: August 17, 2019, 07:59:50 AM »
It looks, very tentatively, like "normal" flow (clockwise, leading to south export) is trying to reassert itself in the PGAS, but I'm not going to make any definitive proclamations on one day of satellite images.

On the other hand, I will make proclamations about Massey Sound, which is just a brutal place for the ice to die right now.

What is the PGAS? It's not in the glossary thread and I find nothing by googling it.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5757 on: August 17, 2019, 08:26:30 AM »
Prince Gustav Adolf Sea.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5758 on: August 17, 2019, 08:40:47 AM »
That wind and heat has done some serious damage.

https://go.nasa.gov/33BQHwc
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grixm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5759 on: August 17, 2019, 09:18:26 AM »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5760 on: August 17, 2019, 11:36:49 AM »
Prince Gustav Adolf Sea.
Eventually I found it on a map
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Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5761 on: August 17, 2019, 12:20:35 PM »
with the exception of the Beaufort, most of the ice seems to be made up of just stuck together debris... almost like the beans from a bean bag all stuck together.  This EFFECT of perhaps 'slushy' ice sticking together rather than cracking apart may be a minor positive feed back that keeps the ice together like a snowball?  This effect seems to have clogged up Nares for most the second half of the season? 

The recent flow from Siberia to CAA warm spot was very worrysome… Jetstream taking a short-cut across the north pole...  These closed-circulations without having to go around the whole planet is more reminiscent of the 500mb level.  I'm also seeing a lot of 'small' lows/cyclones... These I've not seen since 2016
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5762 on: August 17, 2019, 12:38:45 PM »
This effect seems to have clogged up Nares for most the second half of the season?

Responsible for an ice export via NS is a surface current. A lag of such explains the missing export at the moment. That the surface current stopped in summer is reported from recent years. So i too think the stopping of surface current in NS is somehow connected to the state of the ice in the Lincoln Sea.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5763 on: August 17, 2019, 12:49:03 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these? Is this useful? I find them fascinating. It's amazing how that cyclone in the Bering sea smashes itself to dead off the coast of Alaska.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 01:23:12 PM by Freegrass »
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5764 on: August 17, 2019, 01:00:52 PM »
Should I keep posting these? Is this useful?

IMHO yes! Thanks for them.

But please make them click to play (bigger than 700 pixels) if they are big in file size like that one.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5765 on: August 17, 2019, 01:15:01 PM »
I already made it smaller, that's why it's under 700 px. The original is 850px and 10Mb. 700 px would be almost 7Mb. Isn't that too big? I remember reading something here a while back about keeping the file sizes down. That's why I tried to make it smaller.

I'll change the file to 700px now. (Fail)
Maybe a video is better?
700 px. = 1 Mb. So yes, video is better I think, no?
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 02:26:48 PM by Freegrass »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5766 on: August 17, 2019, 01:17:58 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these? Is this useful?
I reckon so. In contrast,Greenland still has a high over it, and little wind. It is getting cold very quick.

If/when the wind currents stop bringing in warmth and motion into the Arctic Ocean, my guess is the Arctic Ocean will get real cold, real quick.

but what do I know......
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5767 on: August 17, 2019, 01:20:10 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these? Is this useful? I find them fascinating. It's amazing how that cyclone in the Bering sea smashes itself to dead of the coast of Alaska.

I find them interesting. A few MB more wouldn't harm either.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5768 on: August 17, 2019, 01:37:52 PM »
May I recommend a beer, a big fat joint, Pink Floyd (The Pulse), and that GIF on loop on TV? It's a good tribute to Woodstock 50 years ago, when I was exactly one month and one week old... :D
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Renerpho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5769 on: August 17, 2019, 01:56:34 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these? Is this useful? I find them fascinating. It's amazing how that cyclone in the Bering sea smashes itself to dead off the coast of Alaska.

Keep them coming!
There is a mountain range where that cyclone made landfall. It is not surprising that it didn't make it.
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5770 on: August 17, 2019, 02:58:31 PM »
Just before cold air dominates the Arctic, this beautiful inverted dipole promises 40-80 km/h winds over the Laptev-ESS side for a couple of day. This is Thursday according to ECMWF.

assuming that the pressure gradient is 3000 Pa over 1 million meters, and that this is near enough to the NP, then the associated geostrophic wind is 3600x24/4/pi x 3000/1000000 = 20 m/s ~ 40 knot ~ 80 km/h, that’s a max. limit, near the surface it will drop considerably
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5771 on: August 17, 2019, 03:25:24 PM »
Freegrass, the animations are great, mp4 video is indeed the best.

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5772 on: August 17, 2019, 03:31:01 PM »
I already made it smaller, that's why it's under 700 px. The original is 850px and 10Mb. 700 px would be almost 7Mb. Isn't that too big? I remember reading something here a while back about keeping the file sizes down. That's why I tried to make it smaller.

I'll change the file to 700px now. (Fail)
Maybe a video is better?
700 px. = 1 Mb. So yes, video is better I think, no?
Yes, great video Freegrass. Problem with mp4 is that iPad won’t reproduce it, but I can watch it on my Android phone just fine.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5773 on: August 17, 2019, 03:50:35 PM »
Problem with mp4 is that iPad won’t reproduce it, but I can watch it on my Android phone just fine.
Funny... I guess I'm still old school... I'm doing all this on my laptop that's connected to a 40" display (my TV)... I couldn't imagine doing all this on a small display on a phone... Glad you're all enjoying it! I'll keep em coming.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2019, 06:45:08 PM by Freegrass »
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5774 on: August 17, 2019, 08:07:08 PM »
Aug 10-16

After 2 days of large drops of the minimum in the Laptev sector, only small changes today. Retreat on the Atlantic side and advance on the Pacific side. Is the melt season starting to stall?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5775 on: August 17, 2019, 08:20:49 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these?

Yes, please.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5776 on: August 17, 2019, 08:32:18 PM »
Aug 10-16

After 2 days of large drops of the minimum in the Laptev sector, only small changes today. Retreat on the Atlantic side and advance on the Pacific side. Is the melt season starting to stall?

As long as area loss is in overdrive i'd say melting increased while extent losses slowed down du to dispersion.

Looking at current wind patterns the southern ESS reminder should be finished off over-night, the beaufort arm is heavily attacked by wind and waves of above zero temps and the atlantic side either exports and melts or is attached by winds and wave, all this during the laptev is under heavy bombardment more or less permanently.

This should rectify the numbers during the next 2-3 days but no clue what comes after that, can get worse are ultimately indeed stall for good.

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5777 on: August 17, 2019, 08:46:07 PM »
Aug 10-16

After 2 days of large drops of the minimum in the Laptev sector, only small changes today. Retreat on the Atlantic side and advance on the Pacific side. Is the melt season starting to stall?

Hmm, slow down probably, but the strong Beaufort gyre action along with the wind we've seen, and the large transpolar drift movement toward the Fram/Atlantic have undoubtedly skewed extent numbers a bit. Even then, the waters still seem to be making pretty good progress on the ice getting shoved in them, concentration losses in the Beaufort and Fram. I'm a little surprised at the amount of Kara retreat, given the SSTs, the drift and wind effect on water there must me stronger than I thought?

Also, I'd love to see a working model of the circulation going on in the Arctic right now. Between the pressure differences over most of Pacific pack and Kara, and the big cyclone in the North Atlantic. There's been a big meriodional anomaly this season, continuing with winds headed right up the Bering. Between the winds, pressure, cyclone I imagine it paints a pretty interesting picture. I'm guessing the cyclone will contribute some moisture, precipitation in the next week or so.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 12:10:31 AM by Wildcatter »

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5778 on: August 17, 2019, 09:42:48 PM »
The latest ECMWF 12Z run keeps the heat on in the Laptev sea and ESS. With continued warm air advection and persistent winds off of the Eurasian continent, the ice pack will continue to be driven towards Canada and the slowdown in extent falls will be be replaced by larger drops in extent. The recent losses in area indicate that the ice continues to melt and that persistent winds will bring on compaction and extent decreases.

The ECMWF run about 10 days ago that predicted record high geopotential heights over Alaska verified. GPH values were similar to July heights over the Colorado plateau. The European model was stunningly accurate in predicting this record event. 500 mb Heights at Cold Bay reached an extraordinary 5980 meters.

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1162537243036119041

Click image to animate.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 01:12:32 AM by FishOutofWater »

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5779 on: August 17, 2019, 09:51:31 PM »
Yes the models in general seem to have passed a crisis that started when the European heat wave reached the Arctic.

Yet the ECMWF has just flip/flopped in its forecast past day 8, never trust that. Even when it turns to happen.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5780 on: August 17, 2019, 10:04:03 PM »
As CSNavywx noted a while back, ridges tend to persist and the models often underestimate the persistence. We should not ignore the latest Euro model run. We'll know that the threat to the ice is over when temperatures drop and area losses stop. The recent slowdown in extent losses was associated with a rapid drop in area, an indication that the melt season has not yet stalled out. The DMI 80N graph shows the melt season has gone into extra time.

I don't think that this means this year will catch up with 2012, but there's still time for surprises.

gandul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5781 on: August 17, 2019, 10:05:09 PM »
Yes the models in general seem to have passed a crisis that started when the European heat wave reached the Arctic.

Yet the ECMWF has just flip/flopped in its forecast past day 8, never trust that. Even when it turns to happen.
That, my friend, would be something, not to trust what just HAS happened.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5782 on: August 17, 2019, 10:22:22 PM »
Drift since Aug 1 (click).

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5783 on: August 17, 2019, 10:48:13 PM »
From what I can see at EOSDIS NASA satellite, the Northwest Passage, e.g Amundsens route, is now more or less navigable. A few floes remains at the east side but should melt out soon.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5784 on: August 17, 2019, 11:31:45 PM »
Big smoke (?) over Chukchi today.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5785 on: August 18, 2019, 01:24:17 AM »
As CSNavywx noted a while back, ridges tend to persist and the models often underestimate the persistence. We should not ignore the latest Euro model run. We'll know that the threat to the ice is over when temperatures drop and area losses stop. The recent slowdown in extent losses was associated with a rapid drop in area, an indication that the melt season has not yet stalled out. The DMI 80N graph shows the melt season has gone into extra time.

I don't think that this means this year will catch up with 2012, but there's still time for surprises.

Yes, GFS is probably lost in the wilderness again. I have put also Arpege, a french model which is not often look but is often good and is a close friend of IFS, despite being coded quite differently. At 96-120 h, the low over north Pole must be closely monitored. It is not deep, but again it is deepening against a strong ridge. And so, a sub 995 hPa low vs a top 1025 hPa high result in a strong low level jet over CAB. I don't have all the tools for an analysis, but it also likely that the high and the low are feeding each over. Stronger high with warmer air mass is probably enhancing the baroclinic zone trough stronger temp gradient and stronger wind speed, helping the low to deepen. No GAC again, but these recurrent, nasty low battling strong highs are not helping. A solution like GFS with a broad low sipping a cold drink and waiting I don't know what would be way better but it is not really the most likely outcome.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5786 on: August 18, 2019, 02:01:27 AM »
Am I the only one noticing the higher tides of late? Today in Ireland the tide was the highest Ive ever seen on the beach I went to in Sligo. 3 weeks ago I went to another beach and noticed some of the road had been taken by the sea. Is this related to the gigaton melting in Greenland and the Arctic? Is it already happening?

As an aside I think Jaxa will end very very close to 4m exactly.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5787 on: August 18, 2019, 02:30:11 AM »
Sea surface height anomalies have gone way up in the north Atlantic. It started before the big melt in Greenland with El Niño and high pressure over Greenland and much of the north Atlantic. I'm sure there's other stuff going on, too, such as Antarctic melting last austral summer.

Large sea surface temperature and ocean heat anomalies in the northern hemisphere this summer are also a factor in the high water levels on account of thermal expansion.

If you are in a coastal area you may see increased coastal storm damage this September and October because of high sea surface heights.

I don't think that the melting in Greenland has already affected tides and sea surface heights across the whole north Atlantic yet. Tides are running high in Culebra, Puerto Rico, too.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 02:42:04 AM by FishOutofWater »

pauldry600

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5788 on: August 18, 2019, 02:55:26 AM »
Wow

My brain in a map

Thank you. Where do I find that graph?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5789 on: August 18, 2019, 03:27:28 AM »
You find those maps here:
http://bulletin.aviso.oceanobs.com/html/produits/aviso/welcome_uk.php3

They go back to 1993. There's a huge amount of information on the sea surface height maps but they are complex and not so easy to interpret.

Compare the past 2 years to 1995. Most of the increase has been caused by melting glaciers.

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5790 on: August 18, 2019, 03:43:29 AM »
Sea surface height anomalies have gone way up in the north Atlantic. It started before the big melt in Greenland with El Niño and high pressure over Greenland and much of the north Atlantic. I'm sure there's other stuff going on, too, such as Antarctic melting last austral summer.

Large sea surface temperature and ocean heat anomalies in the northern hemisphere this summer are also a factor in the high water levels on account of thermal expansion.

If you are in a coastal area you may see increased coastal storm damage this September and October because of high sea surface heights.

I don't think that the melting in Greenland has already affected tides and sea surface heights across the whole north Atlantic yet. Tides are running high in Culebra, Puerto Rico, too.
There's also been low pressure systems in the North Atlantic pretty consistently, as well as what looks like a massive low pressure cyclone there now with a pressure gradient helping winds.

In Irelands case, the thermal expansion from ocean heat anomalies and lower sea level pressure adding to sea heights, combined with the wind is probably pushing tide on Ireland pretty good.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5791 on: August 18, 2019, 04:28:43 AM »
Am I the only one noticing the higher tides of late? Today in Ireland the tide was the highest Ive ever seen on the beach I went to in Sligo. 3 weeks ago I went to another beach and noticed some of the road had been taken by the sea. Is this related to the gigaton melting in Greenland and the Arctic? Is it already happening?

As an aside I think Jaxa will end very very close to 4m exactly.

My understanding is yes, this is the sea level rise.
It is particularly bad on the East and Gulf Coasts of America because the land there is naturallt subsiding.
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Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5792 on: August 18, 2019, 06:37:32 AM »
This is a two day animation (Aug 17-18) of the biggest ice patch remaining near the Siberian coast. In the latest frame it looks like there's a large floe, but it was in multiple pieces yesterday.

click to play

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5793 on: August 18, 2019, 07:13:36 AM »
August 13-17.

2018.

jjj18641

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5794 on: August 18, 2019, 01:15:08 PM »
Aug 10-16

After 2 days of large drops of the minimum in the Laptev sector, only small changes today. Retreat on the Atlantic side and advance on the Pacific side. Is the melt season starting to stall?

Can someone help me understand what this side by side is comparing?

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5795 on: August 18, 2019, 03:00:05 PM »
Looking at the GIF ^^^
I wonder if the ice being pushed south toward 75N on the Pacific quadrant will slowly melt until end of September making a very late and low minimum.
By the way excellent job Aluminium
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5796 on: August 18, 2019, 03:05:55 PM »
Ice continues to be transported into the Beaufort which has slow the decline in extent. You can see the effects of transport into the Greenland Sea as well.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 03:17:23 PM by Shared Humanity »

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5797 on: August 18, 2019, 03:25:51 PM »
Ice continues to be transported into the Beaufort which has slow the decline in extent. You can see the effects of transport into the Greenland Sea as well.

This was last updated on August 7th (11 days ago).

sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5798 on: August 18, 2019, 03:28:33 PM »
The blowtorch is hitting the northern Laptev again. I wonder what that rain will do to the ice. The temperature of the ocean has gone down again, so I guess now we wait to see if it goes up again after today's weather?

This GIF starts @ 2019-08-16 00:00 UTC
Anyway Freegrass, those gifs showing wind, temp, and rain consecutively are excellent. Cannot you keep them coming in that format if the size is not too big (or make the size of the largest side greater than 701 pixels to force us to click if the GIF size is > 3 MB for instance)...
In any case, don’t mind me if it’s better for you to generate mp4 in general.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5799 on: August 18, 2019, 03:32:53 PM »
Aug 11-17