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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5850 on: August 19, 2019, 04:55:47 PM »
Southward movement has restarted in Nares and between some of the Islands of the CAA:

In the Nares Strait thread, i'm speculating since days if the current has picked up again or if those floes are pushed into the strait from the north. I tend to believe the latter.

The theory that belongs to me is that when there is a current, the movement of floes southwards is confined to the right side of the strait. The theory is based on observation.

I would love to get some more input on the topic.

Looking at you, Ossifrage, in particular.

Please reply in the Nares Strait thread >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg222828.html#new
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5851 on: August 19, 2019, 05:43:33 PM »
My theory is that Greenlands mass pulls the ice towards it.

I like your theory, it makes a lot of sense.

You can look at what the surface of the ocean would like like given the effects of gravity and the rotation of the earth, it's the equipotential surface - the geoid

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5852 on: August 19, 2019, 05:49:26 PM »
Pressure maps do make pretty pictures, but don't ask me what it means for the next few days melt.

At least it's on topic. (Greenland has a board all to itself)
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5853 on: August 19, 2019, 06:21:48 PM »
please would you take it to the other thread? Thank you :) :) :)
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5854 on: August 19, 2019, 06:38:15 PM »
Southward movement has restarted in Nares and between some of the Islands of the CAA:

Hey Iain, in case you missed it, you might be interested in this post >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg223279.html#msg223279
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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5855 on: August 19, 2019, 06:57:04 PM »
Am I going crazy or is there a LOT of ice being exported thru the Fram and Svalbard right now? I feel like not that long ago the area was *somewhat* surrounded by blue water (except north) and now I see lots of ice being pushed into the region. Maybe I'm confused or misread what I saw earlier.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5856 on: August 19, 2019, 07:09:01 PM »
Latest forecast.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 07:15:47 PM by Freegrass »
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5857 on: August 19, 2019, 07:32:09 PM »
That's a cold blow to the Pacific :)
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5858 on: August 19, 2019, 07:43:04 PM »
Am I going crazy or is there a LOT of ice being exported thru the Fram and Svalbard right now?

Nope, not crazy. Clouds make it hard to look in recent days. Good, there is radar.
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pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5859 on: August 19, 2019, 07:47:35 PM »
Am I going crazy or is there a LOT of ice being exported thru the Fram and Svalbard right now?

Nope, not crazy. Clouds make it hard to look in recent days. Good, there is radar.

Oh wow, thanks for posting that! That's pretty astonishing to see so late in the year. All of that ice is being pushed into much water water as well. The Arctic is always full of surprises for me
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5860 on: August 19, 2019, 07:57:35 PM »
Oh wow, thanks for posting that!

Welcome, Pearscot. :)

Quote
That's pretty astonishing to see so late in the year. All of that ice is being pushed into much water water as well. The Arctic is always full of surprises for me

I think (not a GIF yet showing it) that the pack came down towards Greenland and CAA a little. Might be dispersion, but could also be water outflow in this direction. There is a sign of surface current in CAA (see this post >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg223279.html#msg223279)
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sailor

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5861 on: August 19, 2019, 08:06:56 PM »
Are the ESS remnants melting???
Looking at the worldview it each day it seems a huge amount of floating debris won't go.
Actually these last days south winds are causing a noticeable decline.
Some of these things seems will remain for some time yet!
The horizontal cut is maybe two or three hundred kilometers long.
Notice the two blocks of ice surviving fastened to the shallow sea floor (I don't think these are islands...?)
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5862 on: August 19, 2019, 08:19:02 PM »
That's a cold blow to the Pacific :)
It looks like it could be the last hot air that's leaving the arctic.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5863 on: August 19, 2019, 08:24:46 PM »
A fractal swirl of more concentrated ice north of the the ESS gets stirred over the past week-now it being pushed into the warm SSTs in the wetern Beaufort Sea

I think that the fractal nature of dispersing ice is a key factor that may bollix up our analyses.

While both area and extent seem like simple enough measures that they can ignore surface geometry, each struggles to capture the structural complexity of boundary and edges. (Compare, for example, a simple shape occupying 15% of a pixel vs a highly dispersed set of blobs — the latter has a far greater edge length exposed. A fractal increases that edge even more).

These fractal swirls could also have really interesting impact on metling/refreezing dynamics and on the subsequent makeup of myi.

Does anyone have citations of studies on these structures and their dynamics?

If I had to guess, I’d say that, to the extent we see structures like this, the ice is in worse shape than extent and area numbers suggest.

I think the dispersion of the ice which is tracked captures some of this. Better still to track dispersion by sea as this will capture the distinct conditions of each.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5864 on: August 20, 2019, 12:05:22 AM »
Pearscot, the renewed Fram export is also very visible in petm's and Aluminium's animations

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5865 on: August 20, 2019, 01:25:45 AM »
update on caa/cab crack, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-aug18

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5866 on: August 20, 2019, 02:06:12 AM »
update on caa/cab crack, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-aug18

Love these, thank you! The remaining CAA ice is loose. What will the upcoming cyclone do to it? Could be dramatic...

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5867 on: August 20, 2019, 05:20:02 AM »
update on caa/cab crack, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-aug18
Great animation, but unfortunate format? On my PC I am unable to watch more than half of the video at a time. Clicking on it does not open it in a seperate window, there is no "fill screen" option, and scrolling back and forth on a running video is a bit frustrating.

A clickable gif would perhaps have worked better, or some other means of releasing the video from the width constraints of the page?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5868 on: August 20, 2019, 05:35:18 AM »
update on caa/cab crack, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-aug18
Great animation, but unfortunate format? On my PC I am unable to watch more than half of the video at a time. Clicking on it does not open it in a seperate window, there is no "fill screen" option, and scrolling back and forth on a running video is a bit frustrating.

A clickable gif would perhaps have worked better, or some other means of releasing the video from the width constraints of the page?
It works fine on my Windows 10 with Google Chrome. Have you tried double clicking it to open the video in a separate window? Or right click? Does my video work for you?
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5869 on: August 20, 2019, 06:01:36 AM »
Aug 13-19

Well, well. Unless my eyes deceive me, melt on Asian side seems to be continuing to pick up, both in Laptev and ESS sectors. Both edge retreat and large adjacent areas turning green/blue. Also, retreat NE of FJL; and in the Beaufort melt continues to balance advection - a lot of ice has melted there this year.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5870 on: August 20, 2019, 06:08:15 AM »
And the northern Laptev heated up again yesterday, as I expected, so there will be more loss of ice in the coming days. Isn't the salinity of the water there higher as well?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 06:15:19 AM by Freegrass »
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binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5871 on: August 20, 2019, 06:26:13 AM »
update on caa/cab crack, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-aug18
Great animation, but unfortunate format? On my PC I am unable to watch more than half of the video at a time. Clicking on it does not open it in a seperate window, there is no "fill screen" option, and scrolling back and forth on a running video is a bit frustrating.

A clickable gif would perhaps have worked better, or some other means of releasing the video from the width constraints of the page?
It works fine on my Windows 10 with Google Chrome. Have you tried double clicking it to open the video in a separate window? Or right click? Does my video work for you?
Double-clicking and right-clicking works fine. Apparently the brain doesn't, this early in the morning.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Yossarian80

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5872 on: August 20, 2019, 06:41:16 AM »
Tonight's 0z GFS shows a strong cyclone heading north of the Canadian Archipelago and into the Arctic Basin - 968mb in hours 90-102... not too much higher than the minimum Great Arctic Cyclone reading (962mb).

A storm looks likely as the models have consistently showed one for days... the only question is how strong, but runs have generally been trending stronger.  Definitely getting interesting.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5873 on: August 20, 2019, 07:41:08 AM »
August 15-19.

2018.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5874 on: August 20, 2019, 08:33:26 AM »
The Euro is supporting GFS in predicting that the powerful cyclone forming in the CAA will move into the northern Beaufort on D4-5 and then gradually weaken as it moves over towards the Asian side of the basin. If this happens, it should promote further substantial area loss at the expense of extent, at least initially (ie in the D5-8 time frame).

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5875 on: August 20, 2019, 08:42:59 AM »
Yes GAC power !!!!  ;D
As it is in the range 96h - 120h, it is almost lokked in. Not as big as in 2016 or 2012 but still significant, sub 980 hPa at least, sub 970 hPa possible. But the radius of gale force is limited and it will occur over the Canadian Archipelago also, so with less impact for sea ice (but lest keep an eye on what will happen in the Beaufort Sea -especially after 120h-). In the end, it is a compromise between IFS and GFS, big cyclone, but coming from Alaska and not from Atlantic.

P.S. : For the Beaufort, what I wanted to say actually is that with the euro guy the low is able to reorganize itself and build a new thermal wave, streaming warm air from Atlantic and then Eurasia, but for GFS this will not happen and the low will spin down quickly. Again, I am skeptical of the solution offered by GFS. It was already not able to anticipate the deepening of this low, and now it want us to believe that it will be short lived. Even though the Euro guy was not sure about the precursor (the one from the Atlantic, or the one from Alaska ?), since mid week the model is quite consistent showing that some big pressure drop is going to occur, not matter the exact details.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 09:32:36 AM by aslan »

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5876 on: August 20, 2019, 12:36:41 PM »
19 August is another of the dates displayed in Neven's excellent year-to-year comparison of the U. Bremen false colour AMSR2 Arctic sea ice concentration plots, as shown below.

On this date, this year looks roughly comparable to arguably the three worst previous years for the ice: 2007, 2012, and 2016.

The ice coverage on this date probably looked most tenuous in 2016. However, a lot of the ice in the Laptev sector went on to survive the melt season and so 2012 easily retained the record.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5877 on: August 20, 2019, 01:16:49 PM »
I've always wondered how these earlier maps exist when AMSR2 data only became available in summer 2012.

iceman

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5878 on: August 20, 2019, 01:31:39 PM »
update on caa/cab crack, unihamburg amsr2-uhh, may1-aug18

Another good illustration of this year's tradeoff between volume and extent. Development of the crack has allowed more MYI to drift into Beaufort. But it's not the classic "protective arm" of years past, only a withered stump.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5879 on: August 20, 2019, 01:55:08 PM »
19 August is another of the dates displayed in Neven's excellent year-to-year comparison of the U. Bremen false colour AMSR2 Arctic sea ice concentration plots, as shown below.

On this date, this year looks roughly comparable to arguably the three worst previous years for the ice: 2007, 2012, and 2016.

The ice coverage on this date probably looked most tenuous in 2016. However, a lot of the ice in the Laptev sector went on to survive the melt season and so 2012 easily retained the record.

The biggest difference between 2019 and all the other years seems to lie in the Pacific / Eastern Siberia half of the Arctic.
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5880 on: August 20, 2019, 02:41:22 PM »
I've always wondered how these earlier maps exist when AMSR2 data only became available in summer 2012.

AMSR-E (2002-2011) and SSMIS (2010-2012). There are links to the archives on the Concentration Maps main page.
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5881 on: August 20, 2019, 03:21:37 PM »
Yes GAC power !!!!  ;D
As it is in the range 96h - 120h, it is almost lokked in. Not as big as in 2016 or 2012 but still significant, sub 980 hPa at least, sub 970 hPa possible. But the radius of gale force is limited and it will occur over the Canadian Archipelago also, so with less impact for sea ice (but lest keep an eye on what will happen in the Beaufort Sea -especially after 120h-). In the end, it is a compromise between IFS and GFS, big cyclone, but coming from Alaska and not from Atlantic.
Yes. Maybe it is the last chance of having big drops (something like the end of August 2016). It can also cause dispersion and an increase in extent (not necessarily a short term increase in ice). In fact, I think it will be bad in PIOMAS volume. We will see.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 03:30:19 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gandul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5882 on: August 20, 2019, 04:29:04 PM »
If it was 500 or 1000 km toward Beaufort, it would be a party of ice destruction.
In that location it smells season brake of an already braking season.
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cognitivebias2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5883 on: August 20, 2019, 08:04:47 PM »
It will be very interesting...  can strong winds from the North do much to the CAB?

The low shows at 971 by Friday morning.  It should churn things up a bit.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5884 on: August 20, 2019, 08:43:47 PM »
EC 12z op run has the cyclone down to 972 hpa. Not a GAC but surely an intensive bomb cyclone. Will be really interesting to see what this cyclone will do to the ice.

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5885 on: August 20, 2019, 09:01:08 PM »
EC 12z op run has the cyclone down to 972 hpa. Not a GAC but surely an intensive bomb cyclone. Will be really interesting to see what this cyclone will do to the ice.

I'll be most interested in seeing what happens along the 'crack' extending all the way to Greenland. Since there is open ocean, I wonder if some wave action will begin to either break down or really diminish the ice. A storm of 972 hpa is quite impressive...

It's been so cloudy there in the entire region I have no idea what it looks like underneath it all.
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aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5886 on: August 20, 2019, 09:02:24 PM »
If it was 500 or 1000 km toward Beaufort, it would be a party of ice destruction.
In that location it smells season brake of an already braking season.

Again, this is definitively not the opinion of the Euro guy. I am ready to bet that this boy will be closer to the reality than GFS. The IFS at 120h - 144h is extraordinarily bad and the IFS at 96-192h is "only" really, really bad. There is a lot of energy to dissipate and the GFS, sitting like a big fat guy in his chair and waiting God knows what's sighing "Energy, which energy?" is really not a credible option in my opinion. Also, IFS (00Z or 12Z of this day) is able to go to a warm seclusion. This point is also not in favor of GFS. From the season, we have learned that the Arctic is under steroids and a cold, dreary frontolysis is not looking likely. Perhaps I am badly mistaken and fooling myself, but for me this is not looking like anything serious.
The point is really not about the deepening low above the archipelago. Now, every one is ok for a deep low over this region. But after, some models like IFS are able to let the low spinning, with a new feeding of energy from Atlantic and Eurasia, while GFS is letting this thing dying.
Perhaps it is the hour where Denethor is whispering the antithesis of your one signature to the lasts floes of sea ice still standing : "Why do the fools fly? Better to die sooner than later. For die we must."

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5887 on: August 20, 2019, 09:13:26 PM »
Five day forecast.

That cyclone is going to have its strongest winds over the CAA, with the lowest pressure @ 969 hPa. I'm curious to see if it will organise itself again later on.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2019, 09:26:28 PM by Freegrass »
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sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5888 on: August 20, 2019, 09:29:53 PM »
As soon as you see a low centered over the North Pole, what immediately follows is a breakout with high pressure reaching for the pole, often piecing the polar front entirely.... Because 2019
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5889 on: August 20, 2019, 09:49:28 PM »
As soon as you see a low centered over the North Pole, what immediately follows is a breakout with high pressure reaching for the pole, often piecing the polar front entirely.... Because 2019
HP good for venting out, as September looms
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5890 on: August 20, 2019, 11:14:28 PM »
The cyclone will also bring plenty of moisture north and much of this will fall as snow - especially out over the ice. ECMWF expects precipitation of 25mm (1" rain) falling as snow over a lot of the northern Beaufort area and north west of Ellesmere.

I think nearer the edge of the CAA it will be wet snow/sleet. I wonder though if any significant accumulations will affect ice extent figures, given the impression that ice extent is increasing in those areas, when in actuality it is just a combination of frozen surface slush and snow ?

We are still a few weeks away from the -10 C air temperatures needed to initiate sea ice freezing. 

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5891 on: August 20, 2019, 11:53:56 PM »
The last thing we need is a foot of snow acting as an insulating blanket over the ice in the CAB heading into winter. If it does blanket the snow, the temps are beginning to fall north of 80 degrees and that snow will not melt till spring.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5892 on: August 21, 2019, 12:08:37 AM »
The last thing we need is a foot of snow acting as an insulating blanket over the ice in the CAB heading into winter. If it does blanket the snow, the temps are beginning to fall north of 80 degrees and that snow will not melt till spring.
Or maybe melt and freeze again, forming some ice. From my point of view, it is what we need.  ;)

I would feel comfortable if 2019 breaks the 2007 record by a good margin but stays away from breaking the 2012 record. To make social activism in Mexico (and I would say that anywhere else), it is enough to be the second-lowest on record.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5893 on: August 21, 2019, 12:12:19 AM »
Here is Windy Euro CAA to CAB 112hrs forecast.  I always look for the areas where the winds, of sufficient velocity, will be sustained persistently over as many days as possible. The CAB crack and adjacent areas looks to be in for the most action.

philopek

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5894 on: August 21, 2019, 12:59:31 AM »
The formerly mentioned 979hPa down to 969 3 days out.

We could well end 10 lower

I assume this is only one of several storms to hit the arctic the coming 3 weeks and
depending on their path things could turn to the nasty side for the ice.

This one is apparentl ice-friendly since it will unleash it's main force over constrained waterways and do "relatively" little damage.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5895 on: August 21, 2019, 02:09:03 AM »
Finally, a storm... but maybe too late and in the wrong place. We'll see.

Laptev sector really took a beating in the last week, a peek through the clouds today shows. But aside from a rather large inlet that is almost gone, most of it looks to barely survive unless maybe it gets a stir.

https://go.nasa.gov/2P76P5F
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 02:29:16 AM by petm »

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5896 on: August 21, 2019, 02:41:36 AM »
We already know.  More high pressure is going to enter the Arctic than forecast.  All August this was the case.

We're seeing a preview of what the polar cell will look like every year in 5-15, IMHO.  -NAO but especially -AO as the polar cell splinters out and dissolves.  (fig1).

Rolling forward average of some timespan is handy on these charts.  5 years rolling forward "6000" thickness for the month of Sept (fig2).

I think Sept will look like a classic normal arctic oscillation negative as far as 500mb height anomaly, all that stuff.  mild high pressure dominating the core above the CAB with the vorticity or stream function going bananas everywhere else.  kinda like the GFS is becoming over the past 3-4 updates.

what this means for ice or crops i have no idea
I am not a scientist

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5897 on: August 21, 2019, 02:47:08 AM »
The coming storm in the CAA has a strong warm sector and powerful southerly winds pushing the warm front into the Arctic ocean shores. It will blow ice out of the channels into the Arctic ocean on the eastern side and down the main channel on the western side. Some snow could fall over the Arctic ocean but the warm sector may be too strong to produce much snow. There could be sleet and freezing rain in many of the below freezing areas.

Weds. morning modification - It has become clear to me that the storm will be pretty cold and the warm air supply will be cut off after it moves over the Arctic ocean. The CAA will get rain and strong winds but as the storm weakens over the Arctic ocean it will begin to produce snow. This is the time it begins to turn cold in the polar region.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 01:02:59 PM by FishOutofWater »

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5898 on: August 21, 2019, 05:33:47 AM »
Aug 14-20

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #5899 on: August 21, 2019, 05:49:48 AM »
Only 2 days now till this storm is predicted to start bombing out over the CAA, EC/Windy now has central pressure getting down to 969 a day or so later as it crosses to the CAB, witha huge wind field, with 30-40 knot winds gusting well over 50kt in places. Could this open Parry Channel and the main NW passage route? The Lincoln Sea and areasnorth of Ellesmre Island and Greenland are in for another (last?) bout of strong southerly wind, well above freezing. The gap may widen again before refreeze

Anyway, its an interesting climax to the season. Both models havethe CAA low taking over the Pacific and Canadian of the CAB. With a lot of wind, not quite as strong, but pressure remains around 980 for a while. As that goeshe GFS sees a narrow ridge from Greenland to the New Siberian Islands by D7 and a 'double diplole' as lows also swirl in the Barents and Atlantic fringe. Its dispersal vs melt vs the clock, as temps inevitably drop