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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #700 on: May 07, 2019, 01:30:41 PM »
Back on topic;

JAXA extent continues to track with 2016 (a bad year indeed), yet the FDD implies the ice is actually in pretty good shape and is similar to 2013 (one of the best years of the decade)?
FDD uses the DMI North of 80o temperature, which is a small fraction of the area of the Arctic. Not only that, the way DMI calculates the temperature (giving equal weight by latitude, not by area) bends the data towards the pole. I wonder what the correlation is between FDD and maximum extent and / or area.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #701 on: May 07, 2019, 01:33:02 PM »
FDD might not be a good measure to derive the shape of the ice?

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #702 on: May 07, 2019, 01:33:40 PM »
Back on topic;

JAXA extent continues to track with 2016 (a bad year indeed), yet the FDD implies the ice is actually in pretty good shape and is similar to 2013 (one of the best years of the decade)?

Yes, but 80N isn't all of the Arctic, and there are other influences besides temperature. However, in all fairness, I've been assuming that the past winter has been relatively good for ice. I'm not so sure anymore.
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #703 on: May 07, 2019, 01:34:53 PM »
Back on topic;

JAXA extent continues to track with 2016 (a bad year indeed), yet the FDD implies the ice is actually in pretty good shape and is similar to 2013 (one of the best years of the decade)?

this is why , although interesting , area north of 80' is far from the whole of the Arctic . This year cold dominated near the pole while the ice it was cooling has been headed for Fram and Nares .
  All the ice that was between the pole and Fram at the start of the freezing season has already exited stage right . All those freezing days have been exported with the ice ..
  Meanwhile much of the rest of the Arctic has had a mild winter and this looks like really mattering this year .. b.c.
   
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #704 on: May 07, 2019, 02:18:38 PM »
Back on topic;

JAXA extent continues to track with 2016 (a bad year indeed), yet the FDD implies the ice is actually in pretty good shape and is similar to 2013 (one of the best years of the decade)?
But 2013 was a rebound year not because of the state of the ice out of winter, but despite its bad state. One of the coolest June-July with that persistent cyclone.
The ice was so thin that even not so strong cyclone would make a hole. And the whole Pacific half was 1 year ice.
But there was no much heat in Summer.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #705 on: May 07, 2019, 03:13:55 PM »
Looking at DMI 80N (North Pole centric) temperature chart, the current (+/- a few days) 2019 temperature is above all other years except 2009, 10 and 18 (since 1999 at least).  Those 3 years all reverted back to the average this week.  Gerontocrat's 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread posts suggest continued warm:
Quote
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard.
I would guess Simon's FFD chart will show 2019 [technically 2018-19] slowly diverge further below the 2010s average (and 2013-14) (but never catch up to 2016-2018 years). 
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #706 on: May 07, 2019, 03:36:01 PM »
Thanks for the comments everyone, I took gerontocrats advice and plotted the regression (sept minima not year maxima). FDD as a whole seems to be a pretty poor predictor of the cycle end-point.

This is an imperfect way to plot this, but my university firewall prevents me from accessing ftp files meaning I need to do it all manually. Also the fact these FDD data points are Jan-Jan, but the Sept minimum occurs 3/5ths into the year makes it worse.

I suppose what im trying to show here is that I shouldnt really have taken any inference from the FDD data about what way the ice could go  :)!
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #707 on: May 07, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
Thanks for the comments everyone, I took gerontocrats advice and plotted the regression (sept minima not year maxima). FDD as a whole seems to be a pretty poor predictor of the cycle end-point.

This is an imperfect way to plot this, but my university firewall prevents me from accessing ftp files meaning I need to do it all manually. Also the fact these FDD data points are Jan-Jan, but the Sept minimum occurs 3/5ths into the year makes it worse.

I suppose what im trying to show here is that I shouldnt really have taken any inference from the FDD data about what way the ice could go  :)!
Tealight's AWP graphs and maps give the daily and accumulated potential energy over and in the Arctic. Goto https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

I attach his "High Arctic" graphs that include only the following regions: Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic[/quote] incidentally, the same seas I show as the Central Arctic Seas in the area tables I post in the extent data thread.

I am sure that they give a much better idea of the current and future state of Arctic Sea Ice (as Tealight has proved once already - Champion of Antarctic Sea Ice Predictors ("No time for losers!?)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1749.msg197999.html#msg197999)

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SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #708 on: May 07, 2019, 04:15:31 PM »
Thanks for the comments everyone, I took gerontocrats advice and plotted the regression (sept minima not year maxima). FDD as a whole seems to be a pretty poor predictor of the cycle end-point.

This is an imperfect way to plot this, but my university firewall prevents me from accessing ftp files meaning I need to do it all manually. Also the fact these FDD data points are Jan-Jan, but the Sept minimum occurs 3/5ths into the year makes it worse.

I suppose what im trying to show here is that I shouldnt really have taken any inference from the FDD data about what way the ice could go  :)!
Tealight's AWP graphs and maps give the daily and accumulated potential energy over and in the Arctic. Goto https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

I attach his "High Arctic" graphs that include only the following regions: Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic
incidentally, the same seas I show as the Central Arctic Seas in the area tables I post in the extent data thread.

I am sure that they give a much better idea of the current and future state of Arctic Sea Ice (as Tealight has proved once already - Champion of Antarctic Sea Ice Predictors ("No time for losers!?)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1749.msg197999.html#msg197999)
[/quote]

great, many thanks for these resources gerontocrat
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #709 on: May 07, 2019, 04:22:18 PM »
Thanks, Gerontocrat! (2nded!)

I wonder where 2007 would show up on the "Accumulated Albedo" graph?  Also, a graph of "Accumulated Albedo" and September minimum extent would be very interesting to see...
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #710 on: May 07, 2019, 05:38:35 PM »
Thanks, Gerontocrat! (2nded!)

I wonder where 2007 would show up on the "Accumulated Albedo" graph?  Also, a graph of "Accumulated Albedo" and September minimum extent would be very interesting to see...
Tealight said he had processed the regional data for the last 40 years.
I think we need to grovel to him for the graphs and/or data to give it a go ourselves.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #711 on: May 08, 2019, 01:58:57 AM »
Arctic Ocean basin just hit what looks like the lowest sea-ice extent on record for this time of year according to JAXA.
Graphed by Wipneus.
https://tinyurl.com/yyrmdp7z
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 03:36:03 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #712 on: May 08, 2019, 07:12:34 AM »
May 2-7.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #713 on: May 08, 2019, 08:11:50 AM »
The Laptev gap is also widening pretty fast...

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #714 on: May 08, 2019, 08:43:41 AM »
There is a hell of a lot of first-year ice in the Barents. I'd expect a free-fall in extent from that region pretty soon.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #715 on: May 08, 2019, 11:00:47 AM »
Yeah. The Atlantic export machine continues humming.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #716 on: May 08, 2019, 11:03:55 AM »
Siberia is also now rapidly losing its snowcover in the highest latitudes. Scroll EOSDIS at link for the full picture. As these losses accelerate expect the Laptev gap and ESS / Chukchi to begin melting and retreating in earnest. These are the regions where ice formation was most below normal this winter (and most of the Kara).

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-05-08-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-3134673.7846731436,925263.8615537761,2108206.2153268564,3472975.861553776

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #717 on: May 08, 2019, 11:41:05 AM »
Not much warmth in the pacific inflow as yet, just salinity. Atlantic water more dominant in the Laptev than last year (according to the model)
Mercator salinity 0m, mar1-may7

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #718 on: May 08, 2019, 02:32:45 PM »
Light cloud over the 'top' of the ess arm today. Worldview terra modis, local contrast enhanced and default, ascat may7 inset.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #719 on: May 08, 2019, 03:22:23 PM »
Not much warmth in the pacific inflow as yet, just salinity. Atlantic water more dominant in the Laptev than last year (according to the model)
Mercator salinity 0m, mar1-may7

Can increased salinity cause additional bottom melt due to suppressing the freezing point?

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #720 on: May 08, 2019, 05:05:59 PM »
Not much warmth in the pacific inflow as yet, just salinity. Atlantic water more dominant in the Laptev than last year (according to the model)
Mercator salinity 0m, mar1-may7

Can increased salinity cause additional bottom melt due to suppressing the freezing point?

it not only can but does.

temps on the bottom of the ice are much higher most of the time (except summer) than at the surface and ice at those temps will certainly be impacted by higher salinity, not to says kind of eaten away, given salinity is reaching a certain level which is more or less what happens on the pacific side at the moment.

if you look not only at air temp anomalies but also at absolute temps, you will see that ice is retreating even in places where air temps are way below freezing point, this happens when either warm waters or more saline water is attacking the ice from below (or both at the same time. )
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 07:58:11 PM by magnamentis »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #721 on: May 08, 2019, 06:15:57 PM »
Not much warmth in the pacific inflow as yet, just salinity. Atlantic water more dominant in the Laptev than last year (according to the model)
Mercator salinity 0m, mar1-may7

That's basically where the Atlantic waters turn the corner after flowing along the Eastern continental shelf of the Nansen basin, heading back north. I wonder if there is a) shoaling causing deeper waters to rise and b) if that water is warmer than usual.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #722 on: May 08, 2019, 07:42:00 PM »
New huge mighty crack in Beaufort.

Shot from today, 14:41h UTC

(actually, Ellesmere Island is a little further up... m) )

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #723 on: May 08, 2019, 09:45:19 PM »
Light cloud over the 'top' of the ess arm today. Worldview terra modis, local contrast enhanced and default, ascat may7 inset.

The entire ESS looks pretty fragmented. Is this normal for early May?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #724 on: May 08, 2019, 10:19:20 PM »
Quote
Is this normal for early May?
Best to look at the stats for that. Every year is different when looking at the ice.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #725 on: May 09, 2019, 03:08:03 AM »
Looking at Wipneus' chart of the ESS ice area since 2012, it seems cracking/fragmentation events with the resulting temporary loss of area are common, but that the first sustained area drop that did not refreeze happened in 2017, in mid-May.
Should the ESS continue losing area rather than refreeze, this year could be even earlier than 2017.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #726 on: May 09, 2019, 02:05:29 PM »
New huge mighty crack in Beaufort.
Not a bad idea for the thickest ice to head north before the CAA opens up.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #727 on: May 09, 2019, 02:38:30 PM »
Not much warmth in the pacific inflow as yet, just salinity. Atlantic water more dominant in the Laptev than last year (according to the model) Mercator salinity 0m, mar1-may7
That's basically where the Atlantic waters turn the corner after flowing along the Eastern continental shelf of the Nansen basin, heading back north. I wonder if there is a) shoaling causing deeper waters to rise and b) if that water is warmer than usual.
I don't think they rise to the surface. That area was the last to melt last year. The ess arm has been stretched and refractured all last freezing season. It's probably just thin ice.
salinity/ascat here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg193927.html#msg193927
bathymetry/ascat: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg193927.html#msg193927
Perhaps it hasn't really been that cold on the pacific side last freezing season.
polarportal ice surface temperature, sep24-may8
edit - forgot scale
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 05:24:13 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #728 on: May 09, 2019, 05:21:49 PM »
Checking out the odd warm patch north of CAA towards the end of the ist animation above led me back to this fracture quite far east, north of Ellef Ringnes Island. Further east than the same dates in 2016. See here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg197767.html#msg197767

Worldview terra modis, beaufort/cab apr23-may8. Fracture shown larger on the right.
edit:Coincidentally, a cyclone will be dragging warm air over this fracture for the next couple of days. Opposite direction to the gyre so it either puts on the brakes or just adds turbulence.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 05:32:00 PM by uniquorn »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #729 on: May 09, 2019, 05:30:04 PM »
I don't think they rise to the surface. That area was the last to melt last year. The ess arm has been

if not rise to the surface, what about reach the surface by displacement, is that a term that would suit your opinion or do you assume that things stay the way they are now?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #730 on: May 09, 2019, 05:36:30 PM »
I don't think they rise to the surface. That area was the last to melt last year. The ess arm has been
if not rise to the surface, what about reach the surface by displacement, is that a term that would suit your opinion or do you assume that things stay the way they are now?
You would have to describe in more detail what would be displacing what. It's possible there is some mixing, but looking at the bouy data it takes a big event to disturb the halocline layers.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #731 on: May 09, 2019, 05:55:02 PM »
I don't think they rise to the surface. That area was the last to melt last year. The ess arm has been
if not rise to the surface, what about reach the surface by displacement, is that a term that would suit your opinion or do you assume that things stay the way they are now?
You would have to describe in more detail what would be displacing what. It's possible there is some mixing, but looking at the bouy data it takes a big event to disturb the halocline layers.

ok, what i meant to ask is whether if year after year the atlantic currents would pump  more saline , hence heavier water into the arctic so that the layer with higher salinity would slowly grow from the seabed up-water-column till reaching sooner or later a depth that would allow for the remaing few meters to mix under open water conditions. i'm aware that there is more expert language to describe the theory but hope i was able to convey the essence of the idea ;) thanks.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #732 on: May 09, 2019, 05:56:32 PM »
New huge mighty crack in Beaufort.

Shot from today, 14:41h UTC

(actually, Ellesmere Island is a little further up... m) )

I noticed that last night. It really stands out on the false color AMSR2 image.


uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #733 on: May 09, 2019, 06:29:11 PM »
ok, what i meant to ask is whether if year after year the atlantic currents would pump  more saline , hence heavier water into the arctic so that the layer with higher salinity would slowly grow from the seabed up-water-column till reaching sooner or later a depth that would allow for the remaing few meters to mix under open water conditions. i'm aware that there is more expert language to describe the theory but hope i was able to convey the essence of the idea ;) thanks.
No bouys in that location but whoi itp110 in the Beaufort shows what you describe, though it's unclear (to me) if it is pac or atl water. The image only shows data to 200m depth. Comparison with previous years shows the warm layer is thicker this year but there is very little evidence so far of mixing or 'displacement'.
My background knowledge of temperature/salinity is limited so I refer you to this post from AbruptSLR https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2391.msg170451.html#msg170451

with this quote about the Beaufort:
The one consideration that you are ignoring is that per the research that I reference in Reply #5, the relatively freshwater layer immediately above the deeper warm layer of water, is unstable.  So it is not that the deeper and denser warm water will magically float up through less dense cooler water, but rather that the upper cooler/fresher lay may well some day flow laterally away (into the North Atlantic) which would then leave the warm water closer to the surface.

whoi itp110 location and temperature/salinity 0-200m, may9
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 06:53:11 PM by uniquorn »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #734 on: May 09, 2019, 06:48:57 PM »

The freshwater layer of the Siberian seas is replenished by river water. I think Abrupt SLRs reference is to the the Beaufort Gyre, who's rotation appears to prevent the freshwater from flowing out.

The less dense freshwater on the ocean is always intrinsically unstable, rather like pouring less dense oil on water. It will flow away from its source across the denser water beneath unless there is some force keeping it in place.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #735 on: May 09, 2019, 06:56:31 PM »
Yes it is Rox. Thanks. I've edited the post to make that clear.
We really need a couple of bouys in the ess then. 

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #736 on: May 09, 2019, 07:42:53 PM »
The Huge Mighty Crack has developed a parallel (southern) crack.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #737 on: May 09, 2019, 08:09:19 PM »
Actually, just saw on Aqua / MODIS, there even is a third crack directly alongside the Canadian coastline.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #738 on: May 09, 2019, 08:17:25 PM »
No bouys in that location but whoi itp110 in the Beaufort shows what you describe, though it's unclear (to me) if it is pac or atl water. The image only shows data to 200m depth. Comparison with previous years shows the warm layer is thicker this year but there is very little evidence so far of mixing or 'displacement'.
My background knowledge of temperature/salinity is limited so I refer you to this post from AbruptSLR https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2391.msg170451.html#msg170451

with this quote about the Beaufort:
The one consideration that you are ignoring is that per the research that I reference in Reply #5, the relatively freshwater layer immediately above the deeper warm layer of water, is unstable.  So it is not that the deeper and denser warm water will magically float up through less dense cooler water, but rather that the upper cooler/fresher lay may well some day flow laterally away (into the North Atlantic) which would then leave the warm water closer to the surface.

whoi itp110 location and temperature/salinity 0-200m, may9

thanks a lot, that's more than good enough.

again the question whether it is atlantic or pacific wouldn't matter as far as the principle is concerned, i should have labeled the atlantic part in my question as "an example". of course if it applies to the atlantic, it can happen in from each side, only that the atlantic is renown to provide a huge amount of water pumped into the arctic.

as to the other point of surface layers flowing away, that makes totally sense as a possibility and i never thought about that before and i love to learn about entirely new possibilities, ideas and/or facts, special thanks for you valued feedback.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #739 on: May 09, 2019, 09:31:01 PM »
Actually, just saw on Aqua / MODIS, there even is a third crack directly alongside the Canadian coastline.
Yesterday's worldview aqua modis of the same area, close to prince patrick. A small cyclone moving eastwards from amundsen gulf has lifted what should be some of our thickest ice from the CAA coastline. More disturbing (to me) are the fine lateral fractures which have little chance of refreeze.
3 more days of southerlies are forecast. Default and enhanced contrast.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #740 on: May 10, 2019, 12:58:07 AM »
A wave of continental warm air is starting to loom in the short range EC model. The beginning is still far in the horizon, 6-7 days but pretty much agrees with that 15 day or so prediction by sark like a week ago. Powerful HP dominating the Arctic and potentially pulling really warm air from the continent over CAA and Beaufort in 10 days. We’ll see...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #741 on: May 10, 2019, 01:11:31 AM »
I wish I hadn't said that, but it is obvious.  Something broke.
I am not a scientist

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #742 on: May 10, 2019, 01:37:18 AM »
As a complete novice at 500mB, how did you do it?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #743 on: May 10, 2019, 05:04:52 AM »
All 3 - NASA, JAXA, & Uni Mamburg - now showing the Arctic Ocean basin lowest for this time of year.

Graph by Wipneus.
https://tinyurl.com/yyll29rx

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #744 on: May 10, 2019, 05:57:02 AM »
The Huge Mighty Crack made it's way to the Nares arch.  :-[

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #745 on: May 10, 2019, 06:54:24 AM »
May 5-9.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #746 on: May 10, 2019, 07:30:28 AM »
Siberia's snow melt has accelerated rapidly. Seven days ago there were only smidges of cover lacking. Now there are only mountainous smudges remaining.


Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #747 on: May 10, 2019, 08:15:22 AM »
Why do I keep getting the impression that the entire basin of ice is rotating clockwise?

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #748 on: May 10, 2019, 08:43:09 AM »
Why do I keep getting the impression that the entire basin of ice is rotating clockwise?

High pressure.  it's all anticyclonic from space to surface.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-84.79,85.32,419
I am not a scientist

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #749 on: May 10, 2019, 08:51:09 AM »
As a complete novice at 500mB, how did you do it?

Autosquint https://imgur.com/a/E2cNoiv
I am not a scientist