The 2019 melting season

[Jim Hunt]

Neven still hasn't got around to opening this thread, but "Snow White" has (prematurely?) called the 2019 maximum over on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1101471926390870016

Here's the "JAXA" version. Discuss!

<edited title to match those of precious years; N.>

[Jim Hunt]

By way of a partial explanation for the recent rapid melt, here's a closeup of the Bering Strait area using the new CryoSat-2/SMOS gridded thickness product. It's updated weekly, and this is from February 24th:

[Juan C. García]

Neven still hasn't got around to opening this thread, but "Snow White" has (prematurely?) called the 2019 maximum over on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1101471926390870016

Here's the "JAXA" version. Discuss!

I like this topic on March 1^st!!! 
The reason is not just the day. I find it very difficult that in March we can have a new maximum in JAXA (excluding NSIDC).

[Jim Hunt]

I find it very difficult that in March we can have a new maximum in JAXA (excluding NSIDC).

Likewise for Wipneus' high resolution daily AMSR2 area?

[jdallen]

We have had bigger rebounds recently, but not by much.  If today shows another drop that may be it.

The only place I can see actually changing that I'd the Barents, but there the ice is fighting the highest imported heat in our history.

[Juan C. García]

The only place I can see actually changing that I'd the Barents, but there the ice is fighting the highest imported heat in our history.

I agree. On the other hand, the heat that is coming from the Pacific is impressive (Anomaly of +5.1 °C on the Arctic).

[Jim Hunt]

The only place I can see actually changing that I'd the Barents, but there the ice is fighting the highest imported heat in our history.

Here's the current state of play in the Barents Sea:

[be cause]

perhaps we should have a 'betwixt and between' thread for those who anticipate a twin peak season ?
b.c,

[jdallen]

perhaps we should have a 'betwixt and between' thread for those who anticipate a twin peak season ?
b.c,

Not needed I think. Jim's  graph pretty much demonstrates the Barents can't make up the shortfall on its own,  and the rest of the rest of the  Arctic won't be much help.

[wdmn]

If we are into the melt then, am I right in thinking this has been quite a unique freezing season? A record slow start, followed by a rebound, and now -- potentially -- by the second (if I'm correct) earliest maximum on record.

So while extent and area have been right around the 2010s average for several months, it seems that the freezing season has shortened...

[Rod]

This is an incredible image posted by Zack Labe on Twitter today.

https://t.co/NEfaf773PA

[Sentinel-3 satellite (2/28/2019): apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?la…]

Rick Thoman mentioned that this image would be remarkable for Memorial Day (for non USA people, Memorial Day is the last Monday in May), let alone the end of February. 

I know when I first started following these forums I would always get confused by partial shots of the arctic. So in case anyone does not recognize this area, it is the Bering Strait.

[Rod]

One more amazing shot of the Bering Strait.  This one was posted by Rick Thoman and shows an area near Little Diomede where there should currently be an ice runway for airplanes. 

The Bering Strait is a small part of the arctic, and it is still a little early to call the maximum.  Neven might close this thread, and he would not be wrong if he did (I tend to agree with Jim Hunt that we have seen the max, but the next two to three weeks could change things).  The loss of ice on the Pacific side over the last few days is shocking!  Maybe it will recover in the next couple of weeks and maybe not. Either way, the trend over the last few years is very troubling. 

[Jim Hunt]

This is an incredible image posted by Zack Labe on Twitter today.

That's a very interesting thread Rod, for all sorts of reasons! For example it includes an "incredible image" from my Arctic alter ego "Snow White":

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1101634642606768131

It even speaks to my new "Algorithms of Hate" thread too!

[Jim Hunt]

Jim's  graph pretty much demonstrates the Barents can't make up the shortfall on its own,  and the rest of the rest of the  Arctic won't be much help.

Although it's perhaps not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that the Bering area could "flash freeze" as quickly as it has "flash melted", to provide a short lived skin of sea ice substantial enough to be detectable by AMSR2?

[DavidR]

JAXA is currently  285 K below the maximum.  About 6 years have seen increases above 250K after this date. 2018 increased over 280K between March 7th and maximum on Mar 17th after dropping 150K in the previous week. 

So we probably have seen the maximum but the winds and the weather could easily flip that.  I  agree with an earlier commentator that  Mar 1st  is a sensible day to start this thread rather than waiting until we are absolutely certain that  the max has passed.

[bbr2314]

Jim's  graph pretty much demonstrates the Barents can't make up the shortfall on its own,  and the rest of the rest of the  Arctic won't be much help.

Although it's perhaps not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility that the Bering area could "flash freeze" as quickly as it has "flash melted", to provide a short lived skin of sea ice substantial enough to be detectable by AMSR2?

That is what happened in 2018 resulting in a secondary max. This year one difference is that the PAC appears saltier. Also, there was a thick arm of MYI attached to the entire northern Alaskan seaboard in March 2018. This year, that arm of MYI is well out into the Beaufort, several hundred KM from shore in most spots, and open water is already appearing along the AK shoreline. For now it is refreezing for the most part, but soon, the Beaufort could also open very quickly (unlike 2018).

[Neven]

Now where's that melt season thread ! Oops sorry Neven !

 

I'll open it myself if tomorrow if JAXA reports yet another drop.

JAXA has reported another drop, albeit a small one, so this one can stay open. 

I'll sticky it once I'm 100% sure the max has been hit.

[Jim Hunt]

JAXA has reported another drop, albeit a small one, so this one can stay open. 

You are very kind Neven!

Hot off the presses at Great White Con Ivory Towers, courtesy of our private wire to the Arctische Pinguin:

[bbr2314]

It is worth noting that as the Bering melts out, the Great Lakes are actually still icing. An Arctic outbreak should ensure that this continues for the next week or more. They are on the verge of cracking the top 3 recent years for early March (1979, 1994, and 2014  -- 2015 may be on the list as well?).

We need 86% to beat 1994 and approach 2014's record, it seems very doable given expected conditions.

[Juan C. García]

With ADS (JAXA) values, three years have increases above 285K km² on March.
It is possible to have a new max on 2019, but seems difficult to me.
Let's wait and see… 

[Jim Hunt]

An animation of AMSR2 concentration revealing the recent spread of open water across the southern Chukchi Sea:

[sark]

It is worth noting that as the Bering melts out, the Great Lakes are actually still icing. [...]

well yeah. https://imgur.com/a/U6nsnfw

[Gray-Wolf]

I read something recently that was looking at the flooding of the strat , over the U.S.A., with water vapour from ever taller storms and have to wonder if we can rapidly alter the levels of heat trapping water in the arctic strat impeding the loss of heat from the polar night?

Is a warmed world providing a rapid path to an equable climate?

[aperson]

I read something recently that was looking at the flooding of the strat , over the U.S.A., with water vapour from ever taller storms and have to wonder if we can rapidly alter the levels of heat trapping water in the arctic strat impeding the loss of heat from the polar night?

Is a warmed world providing a rapid path to an equable climate?

Definitely, although I think water vapor intruding from tropics to poles causing an equable climate is almost true by tautology. Equable climates can be defined in terms of only having a Hadley cell stretching from equator to pole instead of our 3 cell hadley, ferrel, polar cell regime.

I think what we have been witnessing in terms of Rossby wavebreak patterns transporting water vapor poleward (especially over Alaska) is a leading indicator of the 3-cell regime breaking down entirely.

[sark]

[...]
I think what we have been witnessing in terms of Rossby wavebreak patterns transporting water vapor poleward (especially over Alaska) is a leading indicator of the 3-cell regime breaking down entirely.

The Hadley cell is already feeding into the polar cell

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-139,84,336/loc=-140,90

[b_lumenkraft]

Can someone explain this?

I find it weird it would melt in the middle of the ice area. This started on the 13th of February. Correction: This seems to be a consistent feature. Seen in other years too.

I can only assume this is heat from below, but where is it coming from? Atlantic side?

[jdallen]

An animation of AMSR2 concentration revealing the recent spread of open water across the southern Chukchi Sea:
<snippage>

I got curious.  This is actually pretty definitive.  The Bering (And Chukchi) ice is in worse shape this year than it was in 2018 at the same time.  Unambiguous in the images.

[Jim Hunt]

Can someone explain this?

My ageing eyes are undoubtedly no longer in their prime. Maybe that explains why I cannot see what you are looking at!

Can you elucidate please?

[Neven]

Can someone explain this?

My ageing eyes are undoubtedly no longer in their prime. Maybe that explains why I cannot see what you are looking at!

Can you elucidate please?

I think he means ice pulling away from the coast, caused by winds (and quickly freezing over again).

[b_lumenkraft]

Of course, sorry for not being clearly enough.

There is this pronounced feature where ice is melting in the middle of the Laptev Sea.

Zoomed in link >> https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_Sea_Ice(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Sea_Ice(hidden,opacity=0.49),MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(hidden),MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Day(hidden,opacity),Graticule,Coastlines,Reference_Features,Reference_Labels,VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden),MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(hidden)&t=2019-03-03-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&t1=2019-03-02-T00%3A00%3A00Z&v=-133709.1701890404,1439143.1354370622,527026.4063599372,1819582.2916219032&ab=off&as=2017-09-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&ae=2019-02-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&av=8&al=true

[Jim Hunt]

There is this pronounced feature where ice is melting in the middle of the Laptev Sea.

Aha! If I now understand you correctly then that's the mobile "pack ice" being blown away from the static "fast ice" and the resulting gap refreezing?

P.S. Like wot Neven said!

[b_lumenkraft]

Thank you Neven and Jim,

refreezing makes sense.

I thought is was melting because the thin ice there is like 10 degrees warmer than the surrounding ice. I got it all wrong. ^^

[Neven]

Never attribute to temperatures that which is adequately explained by winds. 

[Jim Hunt]

JAXA has reported another drop, albeit a small one, so this one can stay open. 

It looks as though I squeezed past the ASIF proprietor's "melt" filter just in time?

There's a modest uptick in high res AMSR2 extent today.

[Neven]

JAXA has reported another drop, albeit a small one, so this one can stay open. 

It looks as though I squeezed past the ASIF proprietor's "melt" filter just in time?

Yup, but you haven't made it to the sticky stage yet! 

[Paddy]

DMI 80N seems to be making a slow start to warming up so far this year so far http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Jim Hunt]

Open water is now visible along the Beaufort Sea coast as well as in the Chukchi Sea, much of which is currently refreezing:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-03

[uniquorn]

Worldview, terra modis, Beaufort, feb28-mar2.

[Neven]

The question, as always: Will this open water refreeze again, once the winds turn? I think probably yes.

[jdallen]

The question, as always: Will this open water refreeze again, once the winds turn? I think probably yes.

Then the next question, how thick will it be able to get?

At this stage, it definitely won't have a chance to get as tough as ice formed earlier in the season, much less MYI.

[ReverendMilkbone]

uniquorn what are those coordinates?  (Can't read them)

[Jim Hunt]

A less modest uptick today:

[Jim Hunt]

uniquorn what are those coordinates?

Here you go: https://go.nasa.gov/2IQLLgN

[Jim Hunt]

I don't suppose anybody in here happens to have Justin Trudeau's cell number do they?

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1102130759014535168

I linked to the ASIF long before I clicked the "2 others" button!

[Gray-Wolf]

Since the flip in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , back in 2014, I think I have seen the Pacific side of the basin taking an earlier pounding each year with the last 2 seeing little ice in the entrance to the basin from melt season 'get go'?

Could it be that the 0.5c increases in sst's the flip in the I.P.O. drives over its 30 year 'cycle' could now be giving melt season, over that side of the basin, and early shove?

We know that during a Nino the Kelvin waves work their way up the U.S. coast and into the basin via the Alaskan current so could a similar , if slower, train of ever warmer waters be working into that side of the basin ( and for the next 26 years?)

We have seen a portion of the Atlantic  entrance into the basin returning to a more 'normal' ocean profile since the turn of the century. Will the Pacific side , aided and abetted by the I.P.O. , now play catch up ?

[ReverendMilkbone]

uniquorn what are those coordinates?

Here you go: https://go.nasa.gov/2IQLLgN

Geez, I didn't realize that was so far zoomed out...that is terrifying...

[Rod]

Juan and gerontocrat (my two favorite ice monitors) are telling us the extent is creeping back up. Maybe we will have another max? I won't guess, but I do know that the ice looks terrible right now in the Bering, Beaufort and Chukchi. 

Zack posted another clear image of the Bering today.  https://t.co/0UZgoTfsbY

[Jim Hunt]

Juan and gerontocrat (my two favorite ice monitors) are telling us the extent is creeping back up.

"Snow White" is mortified!

[be cause]

thanks Jim .. 2014 shows how a second peak could grow and grow ..
b.c.

[Neven]

Yes, Jim, you're in a sticky situation now!

I don’t wanna fuss and fight
sick of the arguing and all the lies
To tell you the truth you got me thinking twice
thought I got it right