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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #50 on: March 06, 2019, 01:17:45 AM »
Here's the weekly blended CS2/SMOS thickness update:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #51 on: March 06, 2019, 09:12:04 AM »
Arctic sea ice extent is currently still rebounding, although not in all the peripheral seas:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-06


More at the link.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #52 on: March 07, 2019, 09:21:27 AM »
High resolution AMSR2 area and extent both declined today.

Long distance swells are already reaching the Bering Sea, with much more to come.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #53 on: March 07, 2019, 10:41:34 AM »
I've been squinting closely at the 500mb height charts, in forecast and hindsight.  Forecast indicates the polar cell seems to pull back into a compact configuration but immediately develop 5, 6, or 7 waves in the next week

Like the ridging from both the Atlantic & Pacific side that pinched off a section last week and yielded a good incursion of warm air across the Arctic Ocean, it gets very splitty again around 16-19 March.

Here's GEFS 500mb Forecast Hour 162 showing the tendancy to lobe up

And here's the GEFS 500mb Height Anomaly trend for days 12-16

Could be another sudden and strong incursion of warm air across the Arctic basin around the ides of March.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2019, 03:14:13 PM »
High resolution AMSR2 area and extent both declined today.

Long distance swells are already reaching the Bering Sea, with much more to come.
That's too big mechanical energy for the very young ice of those locations to resist.
Bye bye ice in the Pacific

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #55 on: March 07, 2019, 05:29:57 PM »
I've been squinting closely at the 500mb height charts, in forecast and hindsight.  Forecast indicates the polar cell seems to pull back into a compact configuration but immediately develop 5, 6, or 7 waves in the next week

I read a tweet recently from one of the folk who model watch saying the 'final warming' of the Polar Night Jet looks set to be arriving around the 22nd of March so I wonder if this sudden 'flowering' into multiple lobes is a reaction to this 'final warming' in the polar Strat?

Once the PNJ is gone then I suspect we'll be seeing plenty of warm incursions into the basin as some poor sob's get hit with a final blow of polar air out of the basin?
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #56 on: March 07, 2019, 06:48:13 PM »
Temperature anomalies look less and less like a melting Arctic Ocean over the next few days to me.
Big waves in the open Bering sea will have little effect in the Bering as the >70 k km2 of ice area left mostly attached to the coasts?
Really cold along the Atlantic Front.

Only surprise seems warmth arriving in the Okhotsk as cold arrives in the Bering.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #57 on: March 07, 2019, 10:22:28 PM »
Ice can increase in Bering but not because of temperature anomalies but because of ice import thru Bering Straight. In any case, wait until next week, as the wave energy will break all into pieces and mix ocean upper layers nicely.
Not everything is atmospheric temperature

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #58 on: March 08, 2019, 08:47:37 AM »

Not everything is atmospheric temperature
I totally agree.

I am convinced by what I have read on the ASIF and elsewhere that it is ocean warmth and ocean currents and waves that are going to do for the Arctic Ocean ice.

But air temperatures can accelerate or delay that process. And for the next few days at least Arctic air temperatures look likely to allow new ice formation especially on the Atlantic Front, thereby  possibly causing a new ice extent maximum. (After Mar 7 increase JAXA extent only 101k below current max on 22 Feb).
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #59 on: March 08, 2019, 10:55:46 AM »
The wave energy will break all into pieces and mix ocean upper layers nicely.
Not everything is atmospheric temperature

Especially for gerontocrat (& FooW!), my demonstration of the effects of wave energy on a yellow simulation of a small chunk of near shore sea ice:

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #60 on: March 08, 2019, 11:09:47 AM »
After Mar 7 increase JAXA extent only 101k below current max on 22 Feb.

However the high res area shows another significant decline:
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #61 on: March 08, 2019, 03:50:09 PM »
After Mar 7 increase JAXA extent only 101k below current max on 22 Feb.

However the high res area shows another significant decline:
However,

Daily NSIDC Extent on 7 March up by 73k to 14.683 million KM2, and now only 52 k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #62 on: March 08, 2019, 04:21:35 PM »

However the high res area shows another significant decline:

Oren says something odd happening about UH or JAXA data for the Okhotsk. I think its UH data.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg191437.html#msg191437
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Supak

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #63 on: March 08, 2019, 06:34:00 PM »
Can you guys help this noob out? Gerontocrat says "current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb" for NSIDC. But I see the 23rd at 14.688, and the current max at 14.705 on the 24th.


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #64 on: March 08, 2019, 08:02:18 PM »
I think the answer is that GC is referring to daily numbers, while on the NSIDC website they use a 5-day trailing average.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #65 on: March 08, 2019, 08:22:52 PM »
I think the answer is that GC is referring to daily numbers, while on the NSIDC website they use a 5-day trailing average.
I use NSIDC 5 day trailing average for extent and area stuff by individual seas 'cos that's what NSIDC provide.

The 14.735 figure is from the NSIDC daily extent file, which does not go down to individual seas.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #66 on: March 08, 2019, 09:46:01 PM »
Quote
The 14.735 figure is from the NSIDC daily extent file, which does not go down to individual seas.


So which one will be the "official" number they release when they announce the max?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #67 on: March 09, 2019, 01:52:32 PM »
Wipneus' Raspberry Pi has been a bit sluggish crunching the AMSR2 numbers today, but now reveals another modest decline in Arctic sea ice area:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-09
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #68 on: March 09, 2019, 02:06:28 PM »
Quote
The 14.735 figure is from the NSIDC daily extent file, which does not go down to individual seas.

So which one will be the "official" number they release when they announce the max?
I am sure it is the daily extent number at three decimal places of a million km2- i.e. 10,000 km2.
Also note that in their user guide they talk about inherent uncertainty in the data.
 
Quote
Quote
Uncertainty in daily passive microwave estimates of Arctic-wide extent due to noise in the data and sensitivity to brightness temperatures is on the order of 30,000-50,000 sq km or 0.03-0.05 million sq km (personal communication, Walt Meier 05 Oct. 2016). Day-to-day differences on the order of 0.001 million sq km, as shown in these spreadsheets, are unimportant and are included only to serve as tie-breakers when ranking is done and to make it easier for users to do their own calculations without finding differences with our conclusions due to rounding errors.
[/size]
https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/files/data/noaa/g02135/Sea-Ice-Analysis-Spreadsheets-Overview.pdf
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #69 on: March 09, 2019, 02:40:02 PM »
Daily NSIDC Extent up by 19k to 14.703 million KM2, and now only 32 k less than the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

UH AMSR2 extent going in opposite direction to JAXA and NSIDC for the last few days.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #70 on: March 09, 2019, 03:10:52 PM »
UH AMSR2 extent going in opposite direction to JAXA and NSIDC for the last few days.

That's the "high resolution" for you?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #71 on: March 09, 2019, 04:15:09 PM »
"Snow White" is currently getting some grief from a "skeptical" fellow. Hopefully this insight will persuade Michael of the error of his ways?
 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #72 on: March 09, 2019, 09:02:17 PM »
A modicum of (archived) approbation for yours truly from ex Prof. Judy:

http://archive.is/582eM#selection-1108.0-1114.2

I cannot argue with her assertion that:

Quote
This is the most important paper on this week’s list

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/2527/2019/
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #73 on: March 09, 2019, 11:33:20 PM »
A comparison of HYCOM (apples to apples, otherwise not as useful) for this date this year vs. last year shows much thinner ice across most of the CAB, but especially peripheral to most of Eurasia. It looks like there is practically no thick ice adjacent to Siberia this year, a fairly dramatic drop from 2018.

On the other side, it looks like there is much thicker ice in Baffin and NE of Greenland, as well as a decent chunk NW of the Bering. However, all of these regions are likely to melt out anyways.

I suspect that the SWE situation in North America (now above 2018!) will seriously blunt momentum in Hudson Bay, Baffin, the CAA, and parts of the CAB through solstice. But on the other side of the planet, despite high SWE, Eurasian snow extent is now much below normal, and looking to drop substantially further as we head through the extended range. Temperatures have also been much above normal across large swathes of Siberia.

IF we do not see a surprise / substantial cold period take hold across Siberia in March and April, there could be a record early arrival of spring across much of the region, and the state of the sea ice in the ESS / Chukchi is so abysmal that this could translate into a major problem come May and June. It also looks like the FYI is thinner in the Beaufort vs. 2018, which should (IMO) result in the same "poofage" we saw occur in August of 2018 happen earlier in 2019 (especially when the heat is acting in concert with a snow-free blast furnace developing over Eurasia).





bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #74 on: March 10, 2019, 03:59:24 AM »
Also worth noting -- how do we look compared to this point in 2012?

The answer is, DIFFERENT! But mostly warmer in the crucial regions, and by A LOT in Beaufort.

This is for 3/4-3/7 which is admittedly a narrow look, but in the seven years since 2012, parts of North America are now running 20C colder than at this point that year. There is also a pocket of severe cold in the Barentz and northern Kara.

On the flip side, parts of Baffin / the Labrador Sea are up to +20C vs seven years ago! The most severe warming also extends across much of the Bering and Beaufort shorelines. Much of Siberia is running +10C or higher than at this point that year, and much of Europe is also much above normal.

Finally: I do not have snow depth maps for many years, but you can compare the EURO with 2018 for both depth and SWE. Given the departure map vs 2012 I'd assume we'd also be at a big deficit versus that year, but the change vs. 2018 is very steep across much of northern Siberia.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/northern-asia/snow-water-equivalent/20190310-0300z.html

2019^

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018030912/northern-asia/snow-depth-in/20180319-1200z.html

2018^

Western Siberia has seen substantial year over year gains and so have some areas with significant elevation, but overall, there is a massive dearth of SWE and depth in areas south of the ESS and Chukchi. So far, 2019's trends would seem to indicate these areas are not in for major snows in March or April (as they would be in normal years). If that is indeed the case, we are going to see a wide area of Eurasia more than counteract the +anomaly in North America, and the ensuing albedo feedbacks are likely to result in extraordinarily early melt-out of the ESS in particular, and likely the Chukchi and Laptev as well.

It will be curious to see if, how, and when the albedo situation in Eurasia truly begins to spiral, but it may already be occurring. We are over -1SD below recent norms.



The combination of a lack of SWE and a lack of any substantive shore ice means that when the boundary stops refreezing, the Eurasian shorelines are going to rip open, the ice is going to retreat quickly, and we are likely to accumulate significant springtime insolation in areas where that has never happened in the satellite record.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #75 on: March 10, 2019, 08:21:02 AM »
March 2-9.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #76 on: March 10, 2019, 10:13:58 AM »
March 2-9.
The Chukchi has grown back.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2019, 10:51:24 AM »
The Chukchi has grown back.

Not unexpectedly, but these are nervous times for those of us who called a February maximum!

More at: http://greatwhitecon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-10
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2019, 10:55:32 AM »
A comparison of HYCOM (apples to apples, otherwise not as useful)

Note that there are "measured" as well as "modelled" Arctic sea ice thickness maps available, although not necessarily with a long history:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/01/facts-about-the-arctic-in-january-2019/#comment-268997
« Last Edit: March 10, 2019, 11:05:02 AM by Jim Hunt »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #79 on: March 10, 2019, 04:37:06 PM »
The Chukchi has grown back.

Not unexpectedly, but these are nervous times for those of us who called a February maximum!

More at: http://greatwhitecon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-10

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extentDaily NSIDC Extent up by 38k to 14.740 million KM2, 5k greater than what was the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019) The Perils of Projections.

- Extent now just 44k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Remaining ice gain in 5 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 .
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #80 on: March 10, 2019, 11:58:29 PM »
Daily NSIDC Extent up by 38k to 14.740 million KM2, 5k greater than what was the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb.

However I reserve the right not to eat the crow pie you have prepared until the UH AMSR2 and Charctic numbers have followed suit!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #81 on: March 11, 2019, 09:24:59 AM »
JAXA/VISHOP seems to be down this morning (UTC)?

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/

I get redirected to their Twitter feed, which doesn't seem to include any helpful explanation of the (hopefully brief) hiatus.

The high res UH AMSR2 concentration data is already available for March 10th, so that's not the issue.

« Last Edit: March 11, 2019, 09:35:20 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #82 on: March 11, 2019, 12:23:14 PM »
JAXA/VISHOP seems to be down this morning (UTC)?

The high res UH AMSR2 concentration data is already available for March 10th, so that's not the issue.

Wipneus' RasPi has crunched those numbers:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-11

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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #83 on: March 11, 2019, 03:07:36 PM »
Unusually low temps in the stratosphere at the North Pole persist.
But what is the significance thereof ?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #84 on: March 11, 2019, 04:08:35 PM »
Jaxa is still down this afternoon (UTC), but here's the latest from the NSIDC:
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #85 on: March 11, 2019, 05:25:24 PM »
Jaxa is still down this afternoon (UTC), but here's the latest from the NSIDC:
Does one use NSIDC daily extent or 5 day trailing average extent?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #86 on: March 11, 2019, 05:35:25 PM »
Does one use NSIDC daily extent or 5 day trailing average extent?

The NSIDC use the averaged value in their official announcements. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/03/the-2018-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #87 on: March 11, 2019, 05:42:53 PM »
Does one use NSIDC daily extent or 5 day trailing average extent?

The NSIDC use the averaged value in their official announcements. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/03/the-2018-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/

Then 9k to go
date    NSIDC Daily extent   NSIDC 5 day extent
22/02/19   14.698   14.646
23/02/19   14.735   14.688
24/02/19   14.682   14.705
25/02/19   14.587   14.686
26/02/19   14.548   14.65
27/02/19   14.585   14.627
28/02/19   14.561   14.592
01/03/19   14.533   14.563
02/03/19   14.556   14.556
03/03/19   14.617   14.57
04/03/19   14.611   14.576
05/03/19   14.612   14.586
06/03/19   14.61   14.601
07/03/19   14.684   14.627
08/03/19   14.702   14.644
09/03/19   14.743   14.67
10/03/19   14.742   14.696
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #88 on: March 11, 2019, 05:50:05 PM »
Unusually low temps in the stratosphere at the North Pole persist.
But what is the significance thereof ?

Perhaps this is relevant?

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1104807136163450887

Quote
Not often you see the center of stratospheric polar vortex located ≥ 88°N at all levels from 150 hPa to 1 hPa (in 3-day forecast). Exceptionally strong and symmetric vortex for the time of the year!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Iain

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #89 on: March 11, 2019, 09:11:32 PM »
Not a serious objection, but shouldn't the extent uptick be discussed in the freezing thread rather than the melting thread?

More freez-ing happening than melt-ing (extent wise) is the reason for the uptick.


"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

Tealight

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2019, 02:37:40 AM »
A short off topic announcement & question. (It will help you following sea ice melt in the future)

I'm trying to get off googlesites to get more presentation freedom and created a webpage with github pages and a proper address saluting to the glorios pacific atoll of Tokelau.  :D

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Currently it's just a generic template with links to the images on googledrive thrown into. None of the buttons should do anything. Does anybody have problems accessing the website or seeing any of the images?

Attached is an image of all Tokelau islands (stuck next to each other) and how the website should look like on a 1080p monitor.

miki

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2019, 04:23:37 AM »
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
Does anybody have problems accessing the website or seeing any of the images?

No problem here. I see the page ok on my macbook with Chrome.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2019, 07:08:45 AM »
It is wonderful, and I'm bookmarking it!

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2019, 07:18:21 AM »
It is wonderful, and I'm bookmarking it!
Same here.
Works on Windows 10 for with both Chrome and IE.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2019, 08:13:23 AM »
Does anybody have problems accessing the website or seeing any of the images?

It works OK for me using Firefox on Scientific Linux.

I'll try a few other combinations in due course.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2019, 09:42:34 AM »
It's crow pie time by a whisker, if that's not an awful mix of metaphors. I doubt that the Charctic numbers will save "Snow White's" bacon!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Tealight

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2019, 06:36:30 PM »
Thanks to all who tested the website. In the future just pm me to keep the thread clean.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #97 on: March 13, 2019, 10:08:32 AM »
Extent continues ever upwards:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-13

However excluding the ultimately irrelevant periphery....
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #98 on: March 13, 2019, 02:29:31 PM »
NSIDC Extent (5 day trailing average) will increase for at least the next 2 or 3 days simply because it is a trailing average. Same applies to ice area. After that it is in the hands of the ice Goddesses.
___________________________________________________________________________
Khione is the Greek goddess of snow, daughter of Boreas, god of the North Wind and Winter, and sister of Zethes and Calais. She is depicted as a goddess in the series, although in some myths she is visualized as a snow nymph.

In Norse mythology  Skaði was the beautiful and cold (no pun intended ) jotunn , a female jotunn (giant) and the  goddess associated with the skiing and winter .
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #99 on: March 14, 2019, 08:53:57 AM »
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 10:40:07 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein