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Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #150 on: March 21, 2019, 12:13:47 AM »
Slater projection is up and running for those interested.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #151 on: March 21, 2019, 01:47:27 AM »
After flatlining for a while Arctic sea ice area has fallen off the proverbial cliff over the last few days:
Ha ha ha.
You are not kidding.
This can't be right !?

http://tinyurl.com/y3qxmuwx

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #152 on: March 21, 2019, 09:44:52 AM »
Oh dear. Another major loss. 00z models continue to show strong +500MB blocking over Bering and Beaufort reaching into ESS / Chukchi as we head toward medium and LR. Sping has spung.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #153 on: March 21, 2019, 11:35:26 AM »
 :o



It is absurdly early in the season for sustained heatwaves / +0C temps into the Arctic, but here we are...





The pre-conditioning and melt ponding from current model output over the next two weeks leads me to believe we are not in for a meek start, middle, or finish to the melt season.

We also have data in from the 18th. Attaching the departures vs. normal, and the departure vs. 2012. That is indeed an area of +30C temps (vs 2012) appearing over a wide swath of NW North America. 30C is 54F. That is nothing short of catastrophic re: impending melt.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #154 on: March 21, 2019, 01:37:14 PM »
After flatlining for a while Arctic sea ice area has fallen off the proverbial cliff over the last few days:
Ha ha ha.
You are not kidding.
This can't be right !?

http://tinyurl.com/y3qxmuwx

Ok, it's been fixed now. Phew!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #155 on: March 22, 2019, 01:14:35 PM »
This is almost exactly what we don't want. 972hPa over the Barentsz and warm winds from the Pacific side. An extra push for all the older ice towards the Atlantic.
Nullschool gfs temp forecast mar22 for mar24

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #156 on: March 22, 2019, 02:31:49 PM »
The Lincoln Sea Polynya, which was quite stable for over a month, just collapsed, so there will be renewed export through Nares Strait (unless an arch forms in it, but I rather doubt it will this season - a repeat of 2006-7?).  See images in Nares Strait thread (above and below linked post).
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ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #157 on: March 22, 2019, 08:43:50 PM »
This is almost exactly what we don't want. 972hPa over the Barentsz and warm winds from the Pacific side. An extra push for all the older ice towards the Atlantic.
Nullschool gfs temp forecast mar22 for mar24

The video from your previous post showed this really well, (Post #145 on this thread, can't figure out how to link) Looked like a bakers pastry bag squeezing the old ice down the coast of Greenland.

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #158 on: March 23, 2019, 03:19:07 AM »
Perhaps due to the El Nino and a warmer/The warmest Temps (record Jan.) down low (likely creating a stronger jet during the deep winter) the Jetstream was just too strong to let the warmth up to the pole compared to the last three-four years?  Will there be a later surge before summer as--perhaps--the temp difference balances out?!!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #159 on: March 23, 2019, 10:07:50 AM »
There's been something of a "rebound" in the Bering Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#Mar-23
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #160 on: March 23, 2019, 11:33:48 AM »
I don't even know where to post this.  According to GFS at 8 days, Alaska is going to get a taste of southern Texas weather around April 1.

looks to me like the polar cell gets distorted into a figure 8 shape, both cores trying to fly counterclockwise.  then the arctic gets a blast of warm air.  while we're dealing with wild weather, the polar cell consolidates into a circular shape.  the whole thing rotates counterclockwise for about a week and then begins to lobe as the perimeter lengthens.  then the cold rattles around all that loose perimeter until the polar cell splits, the arctic gets a blast of warm air, and then the whole thing twangs back together again.  the cycle repeats but now it's 4 - 5 times per year.

Posting GFS and wind vector anomalies I've been looking at
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #161 on: March 23, 2019, 01:10:12 PM »
amsr2, bering, jan1-mar22. Some similarities to last year. Wind driven flash melt/refreeze.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #162 on: March 24, 2019, 03:50:54 AM »
There's been something of a "rebound" in the Bering Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#Mar-23
Yeah - seriously contributed to recent extent increases - but no doubt is barely thicker than slash.

Another week and a half and I'll be surprised if it doesn't vanish along with a bunch of similar extent that formed in the Chukchi.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #163 on: March 24, 2019, 11:37:08 AM »
There's been something of a "rebound" in the Bering Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#Mar-23
Yeah - seriously contributed to recent extent increases - but no doubt is barely thicker than slash.

Another week and a half and I'll be surprised if it doesn't vanish along with a bunch of similar extent that formed in the Chukchi.
Temp anomalies may assist in the melt.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #164 on: March 24, 2019, 08:22:43 PM »
The main pack has been pulling away from the Alaskan coast west of Point Barrow and pushing back again as winds change.  Worldview image from yesterday shows a reasonable stretch of open water. (today's image was cloudier).

The water can be seen also in the distance beyond the fast ice on today's webcam image at Utqiagvík.


uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #165 on: March 24, 2019, 08:57:02 PM »
Thanks Niall, sea ice looks like it has very little resilience there this week. Almost like it's in a washing machine.
Worldview terra modis, mar16-24  https://go.nasa.gov/2WmMAzH

Meanwhile on the Atlantic side it looks like refreeze is struggling to keep up with export.
ascat jan1-mar23 (no data for jan20)
saying goodbye to the dark line
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 09:16:19 PM by uniquorn »

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #166 on: March 24, 2019, 09:48:22 PM »
Thanks for that animation. It looks like Fram export has been really active for a while now. Anyway, when I recall correctly from one of Wipneus' latest posting, Fram export is normal compared to long term averages. Is that correct?

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #167 on: March 24, 2019, 09:58:29 PM »
Thanks for that animation. It looks like Fram export has been really active for a while now. Anyway, when I recall correctly from one of Wipneus' latest posting, Fram export is normal compared to long term averages. Is that correct?
That's correct, but in the last couple of years it's always been below normal.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #168 on: March 24, 2019, 10:52:31 PM »
Thanks for that animation. It looks like Fram export has been really active for a while now. Anyway, when I recall correctly from one of Wipneus' latest posting, Fram export is normal compared to long term averages. Is that correct?
Unfortunately, what happens before ice reaches the Fram isn't measured yet, but if your point is that this is a normal year, I would suggest that what we may be seeing is the beginning of a relatively rapid flushing of older ice that may leave us with a significantly larger proportion of first year ice next season.
This is a better post showing old/new ice
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg192368.html#msg192368
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 10:58:56 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #169 on: March 24, 2019, 10:59:58 PM »
The main pack has been pulling away from the Alaskan coast west of Point Barrow

There's open water visible on the Nome cam also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-webcams/#Nome
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #170 on: March 24, 2019, 11:07:16 PM »
Thanks for that animation. It looks like Fram export has been really active for a while now. Anyway, when I recall correctly from one of Wipneus' latest posting, Fram export is normal compared to long term averages. Is that correct?

that's right, only that i believe that the ice-mass balance is worse than ever, means the ice-mass that is exported in relation to the remaining ice-mass is higher. the part which appears to be average is probably more on the two-dimensional side or at least something along that line.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #171 on: March 25, 2019, 12:15:10 AM »
Beaufort, small lift off CAA. https://go.nasa.gov/2YfyqSR

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #172 on: March 25, 2019, 07:03:36 AM »
March 17-24.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #173 on: March 25, 2019, 09:44:36 AM »
There was a 162k decline in high resolution AMSR2 extent yesterday:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#Mar-25
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #174 on: March 25, 2019, 11:39:04 AM »
March 17-24.

why do you keep the images so cropped (small cut-out) at this time of the year it most of the action is in regions that are not in your images and since the melt onset, beside the final stage of the melting season are the most interesting ones, i suggest to post a images that cover a larger area, since i look at the orginal each day i know it's there.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #175 on: March 25, 2019, 12:34:48 PM »
Thanks for that animation. It looks like Fram export has been really active for a while now. Anyway, when I recall correctly from one of Wipneus' latest posting, Fram export is normal compared to long term averages. Is that correct?
Thanks for this Stephan. The Fram export chart had been bothering me for some time as it didn't appear to correlate with what I've been seeing. Overnight I realised it is because it is a volume chart. As the exported ice gets thinner a larger area has to be exported to make up the volume.
Assuming the piomas model is correct.
edit:Colours are different on the last image due to copy from mp4 and latest gif, please check with the scale. Not a very good proof, I'll ask wipneus

Piomas mar26(or nearest) 2009-2019
Fram volume export 2019 (Wipneus describes as near normal)
Apologies to wipneus, screen grab clipped name

A comparison of ascat and piomas for 2018 here.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg189192.html#msg189192
« Last Edit: March 25, 2019, 12:54:05 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #176 on: March 25, 2019, 12:37:29 PM »
why do you keep the images so cropped (small cut-out) at this time of the year it most of the action is in regions that are not in your images

What regions are of particular interest to you at the moment?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #177 on: March 25, 2019, 01:00:45 PM »
The D10 EURO forecast, if it verifies, indicates our current heat wave is only a prelude to a much larger event.





The current / medium forecast would be a death-knell for much of the Arctic this summer IMO as melt ponding is going to get out of control across very many regions.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #178 on: March 25, 2019, 02:00:29 PM »
Hold your horses bbr, a few hours above freezing won't be making many melt ponds;)

Lincoln sea ice crumbling into the Nares Strait. North Greenland fractures reaching out to meet the polynya shear lines. I think refreeze will struggle to keep up with this, though the fractures do ease the pressure.
Worldview, viirsbt15n, north greenland, nar24-25 last image heavily enhanced

Nares strait thread
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg192768.html#msg192768

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #179 on: March 25, 2019, 03:36:37 PM »
why do you keep the images so cropped (small cut-out) at this time of the year it most of the action is in regions that are not in your images and since the melt onset, beside the final stage of the melting season are the most interesting ones, i suggest to post a images that cover a larger area, since i look at the orginal each day i know it's there.
I'm interesting in this area. Other seas melt almost completely every year. Without active melting/freezing season here I decided post less often. Will post more frequently when action begins.
For experiment, I made gif with full area.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #180 on: March 25, 2019, 05:01:43 PM »
Thank you for these animations Aluminium. I prefer the zoomed-in version as it has better resolution, and as you say these are the interesting areas during the melting (and freezing) seasons.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #181 on: March 25, 2019, 06:50:29 PM »
why do you keep the images so cropped (small cut-out) at this time of the year it most of the action is in regions that are not in your images and since the melt onset, beside the final stage of the melting season are the most interesting ones, i suggest to post a images that cover a larger area, since i look at the orginal each day i know it's there.
I'm interesting in this area. Other seas melt almost completely every year. Without active melting/freezing season here I decided post less often. Will post more frequently when action begins.
For experiment, I made gif with full area.

ok, understood, thanks for elaboration

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #182 on: March 26, 2019, 12:02:00 PM »
Some interesting SST news from the OSI-SAF in my inbox this morning:

Quote
L3 products - two new 12-hourly 5km gridded products are being introduced:

 * OSI-203-a, based on the Metop-B AVHRR L2 SST/IST product (OSI-205-a)
 * OSI-203-b, based on the SNPP VIIRS L2 SST/IST product (OSI-205-b)

The two L3 products will replace the current multi-sensor product (OSI-203),
which will be discontinued on 10 September 2019. Users are therefore
encouraged to start using the OSI-203-a and OSI-203-b products instead of
OSI-203.

All the new products are in GHRSST compliant netCDF4 format and cover the
High Latitudes seas and ice areas north of 50N. The existing OSI-205-a is
poleward of 50N and 50S. The products are available on FTP and EUMETCast.
More details about the products are available here:

http://www.osi-saf.org/?q=content/sst-products
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #183 on: March 26, 2019, 06:18:14 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #184 on: March 26, 2019, 08:57:31 PM »
Another > 100k drop in high res AMSR2 extent:


If you were a stock trader you should sell this one short NOW!  :)

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #185 on: March 27, 2019, 02:54:17 AM »
A folks?!  About that uptick in extent that we had in the Bering a bit ago?!

;)
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jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #186 on: March 27, 2019, 03:06:27 AM »
On the other side of things, the Barents doesn't look a whole lot healthier.

This shot is from the 26th.  If you go back a day, the "Atlantic Front" ice killing zone NW and N of Svalbard is very visible.

Today's shot shows very large expanses S and E of Franz Josef threading out, and what might be the beginnings of another "hot zone"  to the west of the island in the strait between the two archipelagos.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #187 on: March 27, 2019, 01:27:48 PM »
On the other side of things, the Barents doesn't look a whole lot healthier. <sn>
Both ecmwf and gfs forecasting below 960hPa storms in the barentsz on saturday, though, in extent terms, it might just suck more older ice out of the CAB
https://tinyurl.com/yyledwze

edit: Mercator model indicating the underlying 34m current north and northwest of FJL hasn't quite cooled down over the freezing season. Jan1-mar25. Open water due west of FJL may be wind driven.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2019, 01:57:14 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #188 on: March 27, 2019, 04:21:25 PM »
High resolution AMSR2 extent has plunged 425 thousand square kilometres over the last four days:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#comment-274372
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #189 on: March 27, 2019, 05:22:00 PM »
How rare is it to see a full 10 day GFS run on the Reanalyzer predicting 2M anomalies in the arctic above 6 deg C (ok, a couple of drops to 5.9) and as high as 7.6? I don't recall seeing as anomalous a forecast as the current one. Or do I just not recall?

Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #190 on: March 27, 2019, 06:31:58 PM »
I can't remember such 7.6 degrees anomalies. Eyeballing the land I also see it more gray than usual at this time of year. Looks the melt season promises to be exciting since the freeze season was boring for me

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #191 on: March 27, 2019, 07:31:30 PM »
High resolution AMSR2 extent has plunged 425 thousand square kilometres over the last four days:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#comment-274372
Considering peripheral ice quality, a loss of another half million over the next 7-10 days before it slows would be unsurprising.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #192 on: March 27, 2019, 07:33:49 PM »
How rare is it to see a full 10 day GFS run on the Reanalyzer predicting 2M anomalies in the arctic above 6 deg C (ok, a couple of drops to 5.9) and as high as 7.6? I don't recall seeing as anomalous a forecast as the current one. Or do I just not recall?

I don't remember the anomalies being so high.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #193 on: March 27, 2019, 07:56:08 PM »
How rare is it to see a full 10 day GFS run on the Reanalyzer predicting 2M anomalies in the arctic above 6 deg C (ok, a couple of drops to 5.9) and as high as 7.6? I don't recall seeing as anomalous a forecast as the current one. Or do I just not recall?

November 2016.

Maybe February 2018.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2019, 08:02:54 PM by sark »
I am not a scientist

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #194 on: March 28, 2019, 12:21:37 PM »
How rare is it to see a full 10 day GFS run on the Reanalyzer predicting 2M anomalies in the arctic above 6 deg C (ok, a couple of drops to 5.9) and as high as 7.6? I don't recall seeing as anomalous a forecast as the current one. Or do I just not recall?

November 2016.

Maybe February 2018.

Ok, but it was more the entire 10 day run above 6 deg that struck me as extreme.  I would guess it is certainly ONE of the most anomalous 10 day runs in many years, anyway.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #195 on: March 28, 2019, 01:30:57 PM »
As mobile ice has been driven off the Laptev fast ice by southerly winds over the last week or so here is a historical look at the Laptev for mar28 (or close clear-ish day) from 2000-2019 for comparison. (Worldview terra modis)

edit: Added buoy temperature in the Beaufort since sep2018. Relatively warm today, though still cold, as it's closer to ice surface temperature rather than air. (subs please check   ;) ) This will affect the 'preconditioning' that bbr mentioned upthread.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163096
« Last Edit: March 28, 2019, 02:15:11 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #196 on: March 29, 2019, 11:38:46 AM »
Update on Utqiagvik (barrow). Land fast breaking away to the east yesterday.
Worldview terra modis, mar27-28

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #197 on: March 29, 2019, 01:47:05 PM »
The decline continues, albeit at a rather reduced rate. JAXA is now flirting with 3rd place:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #198 on: March 29, 2019, 03:19:25 PM »
The decline continues, albeit at a rather reduced rate. JAXA is now flirting with 3rd place:
2016 is now 79K km2 above 2019, but it will be the new lowest leader in a couple of days. So 2019 could be 3rd lowest tomorrow, but I think that it will be 4th lowest the day after.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #199 on: March 30, 2019, 05:36:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 29th, 2019:
     13,588,813 km2, a century drop of -113,286 km2.
     2019 is 3th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)
With the century drop, 2019 can be the lowest on record tomorrow!
[2019 will be the lowest if it drops 28K km2 tomorrow]
« Last Edit: March 30, 2019, 06:19:30 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.