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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #200 on: March 30, 2019, 06:20:50 AM »
March 22-29.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #201 on: March 30, 2019, 08:41:34 AM »
Houston, Houston!

We're going to have a problem - given the weather forecast. Especially the Bering and the Chukchi.

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #202 on: March 30, 2019, 09:10:46 AM »
...and the ice in Kara Sea also does not look very healthy (see Aluminium's animation above)
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #203 on: March 30, 2019, 09:21:25 AM »
...and the ice in Kara Sea also does not look very healthy (see Aluminium's animation above)

Neither does Laptev sea. :(

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #204 on: March 30, 2019, 09:30:06 AM »
Looking at the regional AMSR2 extent charts, it appears 2019 is very low in the Bering (as was 2018), somewhat low in Baffin, rather high in Okhotsk, and quite typical in all other regions.
Despite high temps it's very hard to make a sustained drop in Kara and Laptev before mid-May, and in Chukchi before mid-April, as the ice is quite thick and any wind change closes the gaps in the ice. But Okhotsk, Bering and Barents are vulnerable enough.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #205 on: March 30, 2019, 10:28:50 AM »
2019 will be the lowest if it drops 28K km2 tomorrow

Based on the high res AMSR2 area that seem highly likely to happen:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#Mar-30
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Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #206 on: March 30, 2019, 12:35:24 PM »
Early melting season cliffs are scary. Hopefully things get better after this event is over.

Attached, Bering sea ASI volume from 2000 to latest release.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #207 on: March 30, 2019, 01:13:41 PM »
...and the ice in Kara Sea also does not look very healthy (see Aluminium's animation above)

Neither does Laptev sea. :(

Nor the Lincoln sea. So basically the entire arctic periphery.

Other than that though...
big time oops

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #208 on: March 30, 2019, 01:33:55 PM »
The decline continues, albeit at a rather reduced rate. JAXA is now flirting with 3rd place:
2016 is now 79K km2 above 2019, but it will be the new lowest leader in a couple of days. So 2019 could be 3rd lowest tomorrow, but I think that it will be 4th lowest the day after.

since your predictions are so much better than mine i didn't dare to say it loud, but my first thought last night was: "except" (if it follows the path of 2016 )

looking at the temps for the today and tomorrow combined with southerly winds in bering plus the fact that not one region that is already in the reach of melting events is currently cold, i'd say that the next drop will be similar to today's but with my luck/skills i'm perhaps wrong now that i mentioned it LOL

 8)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #209 on: March 30, 2019, 02:05:25 PM »
I have a vague recollection of someone (a year or two ago) comparing early ice melt with season-complete ice melt and found no correlation.  Can someone with data run a comparison and enlighten us?

(It's the 'only' hope we have of my 2013 projection of ice freedom in 2019 not coming to pass.)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #210 on: March 30, 2019, 02:11:40 PM »
Attached, Bering sea ASI volume from 2000 to latest release.

Bering Sea ice area for the AMSR2 era:

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Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #211 on: March 30, 2019, 02:29:53 PM »
I have a vague recollection of someone (a year or two ago) comparing early ice melt with season-complete ice melt and found no correlation.  Can someone with data run a comparison and enlighten us?

(It's the 'only' hope we have of my 2013 projection of ice freedom in 2019 not coming to pass.)

I have found the same thing.  Early melt in 2007 was slightly below average, 2106 was well below average, and 2012 was one of the lowest.  Early season melt was highest during the 1980s.  Consequently, their is a slight correlation with sea ice maximum; namely the higher the maximum, the higher the early season melt.  There was no correlation with either the minimum or total season ice loss.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #212 on: March 30, 2019, 02:33:53 PM »
There was no correlation with either the minimum or total season ice loss.

Gotta link?
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #213 on: March 30, 2019, 03:39:22 PM »
I think we all have to accept that 'today' ,early season, is very different to 1980's ,early season?

Look at the amounts of 'peripheral ice' that there was to be got rid of prior to central basin melt back in the 80's? You would see big number losses as the easy ice went, early doors, now we have very little 'peripheral ice' in Bering/Barentsz/Kara so rely on St Lawrence/Hudson and the strip down the east coast of Greenland for all of our early melt?

These days if we saw big number melt in the first weeks of melt season I'd say it was a big portent for the evolution of the season if only for the space it provided for ice to fracture into lessening floe size and allowing waters to warm early?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #214 on: March 30, 2019, 04:00:12 PM »
While I agree with GW's last paragraph - early losses should set the stage for later losses - we're 'stuck' with KK's anecdotal description of recent early-loss years not being the same as greatest-loss years. 
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wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #215 on: March 30, 2019, 04:12:55 PM »
I think we all have to accept that 'today' ,early season, is very different to 1980's ,early season?

Look at the amounts of 'peripheral ice' that there was to be got rid of prior to central basin melt back in the 80's? You would see big number losses as the easy ice went, early doors, now we have very little 'peripheral ice' in Bering/Barentsz/Kara so rely on St Lawrence/Hudson and the strip down the east coast of Greenland for all of our early melt?

These days if we saw big number melt in the first weeks of melt season I'd say it was a big portent for the evolution of the season if only for the space it provided for ice to fracture into lessening floe size and allowing waters to warm early?

In other words it may be more useful to consider percent loss of total?

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #216 on: March 30, 2019, 04:24:40 PM »
From my point of view, the air temperatures and the high pressure (associated with them) in June and July will be decisive. We have been lucky not to have warm temperatures on both months on the last 6 years.
I am hoping that there is a negative feedback making both months colder than usual the worst years. But that is just hope. We will have to wait and see.
["Colder than usual" meant not following the trend of being warmer, like 2007, 2011 and 2012].
« Last Edit: March 30, 2019, 04:43:05 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #217 on: March 30, 2019, 05:08:54 PM »
I think we all have to accept that 'today' ,early season, is very different to 1980's ,early season?

Look at the amounts of 'peripheral ice' that there was to be got rid of prior to central basin melt back in the 80's? You would see big number losses as the easy ice went, early doors, now we have very little 'peripheral ice' in Bering/Barentsz/Kara so rely on St Lawrence/Hudson and the strip down the east coast of Greenland for all of our early melt?

These days if we saw big number melt in the first weeks of melt season I'd say it was a big portent for the evolution of the season if only for the space it provided for ice to fracture into lessening floe size and allowing waters to warm early?

In other words it may be more useful to consider percent loss of total?

Not really.  The maximum is only 10% lower than in the 1980s (last five year NSIDC extent vs 1979-90).  This is small compared to early sea losses than can vary by 100% or more.  There is no correlation between early sea ice losses and previous years ice growth or change in the maximum or minimum.  Al this is comparing the early loss to the maximum.  If we were to just compare the last two weeks in March, recent losses are less, due to later maxima in recent years.

All in all, it appears to mostly weather related.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #218 on: March 30, 2019, 06:42:09 PM »
Hi KK,

All in all, it appears to mostly weather related.

Did I blink and miss your link(s)?
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Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #219 on: March 31, 2019, 12:15:37 AM »
Hi KK,

All in all, it appears to mostly weather related.

Did I blink and miss your link(s)?

The data is all right here:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

You may need to do a little math of your own though, but you should come to the same conclusions.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #220 on: March 31, 2019, 12:42:27 AM »
You may need to do a little math of your own though, but you should come to the same conclusions.

Strangely enough I've done a bit of maths (as we call the subject here in the once Great Britain), and a fair bit of programming too.

Perhaps you wouldn't mind enlightening me further concerning how you came to your particular conclusions? Methodology as well as raw data would be helpful, for example.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #221 on: March 31, 2019, 01:24:53 AM »
You may need to do a little math of your own though, but you should come to the same conclusions.

Strangely enough I've done a bit of maths (as we call the subject here in the once Great Britain), and a fair bit of programming too.

Perhaps you wouldn't mind enlightening me further concerning how you came to your particular conclusions? Methodology as well as raw data would be helpful, for example.

The raw data is in the previous link.  I have plotted at the recent melt compared to the annual maximum, minimum, previous season ice growth, and change in ice maximum from the previous season.  No correlation exists in any of the comparisons.  Early season melt is no indication of what is to come later in the season.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #222 on: March 31, 2019, 03:42:12 AM »
This took quite the dive.
Went from 8th or 9th lowest to 4th or 5th pretty quickly.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #223 on: March 31, 2019, 04:53:25 AM »
...and the ice in Kara Sea also does not look very healthy (see Aluminium's animation above)

Neither does Laptev sea. :(
Conditions in the Laptev and Kara are not exceptional for the date.  The key regions right now remain the Bering, Chukchi and Barents.
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #224 on: March 31, 2019, 07:38:52 AM »
I have a vague recollection of someone (a year or two ago) comparing early ice melt with season-complete ice melt and found no correlation.  Can someone with data run a comparison and enlighten us?

(It's the 'only' hope we have of my 2013 projection of ice freedom in 2019 not coming to pass.)
There were some comments about this on NSIDC Analysis.

By memory, the lowest years on September are 2005-2007, 2010-2012 and 2015-2018. Looking at the ice on March on those years, the great exemption is 2012, that had more ice than 2010's average on March and end up being the lowest on September (and by far). But all the other years that were low on September, they were also low on March.
So, I don't think that low values on March will mean that we will not have a low record on September. If we have melting conditions on June-August, 2019 will be terrible.
2019 is going to make me eat my nails, with the -165,712 km2 drop that we have today and the heat that we still have on the Arctic.

P.S.: I didn't include 2010 on the graph and it is close to 2012 on March. So there is another year that it was above average on March and end up with a low value on September.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2019, 07:49:00 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

miki

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #225 on: March 31, 2019, 07:45:04 AM »
If we have melting conditions on June-August, 2019 will be terrible.
2019 is going to make me eat my nails, with the -165,712 km2 drop that we have today and the heat that we still have on the Arctic.

I'm there with you. Thanks for your postings.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #226 on: March 31, 2019, 09:23:35 AM »
Looks like the warmish Gulf of Alaska seeps to Bering Sea through the Aleut Channels, a normal Pacific sub-polar gyre is active. This is by no means a new thing in anything but the relative warmth of the waters.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-166.80,48.41,1025
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #227 on: March 31, 2019, 10:32:14 AM »
I think we are seeing a possible perfect storm forming this year. I am very surprised by this occurring after the widespread record snows across North America this year. We have seen the most sustained March warmth across the Arctic to date of any recent year, perhaps excluding 2016 (but the focus of the heat that year was on the ATL not the PAC).

This weather is important IMO because it is following order of operations to obtain possible record summer extent minimum. Anomalous warmth focused on the Pacific periphery at a time of year when it should still be gaining mass is now sufficient to result in outright melt rather than mere cessation of gains. The Pacific heat will be complemented by rising temps across the ESS and Chukchi and Kara, as well. IMO, this is pointing toward a very early volume max for the Arctic and a record early start to steep extent losses. Whether this results in a record minimum remains to be seen.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #228 on: March 31, 2019, 10:50:53 AM »
I have plotted at the recent melt compared to the annual maximum, minimum, previous season ice growth, and change in ice maximum from the previous season.

Great! Where can I see those plots?

Quote
No correlation exists in any of the comparisons.  Early season melt is no indication of what is to come later in the season.

An introduction for the "citizen scientist" to the concept that correlation isn't necessarily all it's cracked up to be:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331812193_Hannah_Fry%27s_Hello_World_and_the_Example_of_Algorithm_Bias
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #229 on: March 31, 2019, 10:53:14 AM »
To add to Juan's JAXA graph, the plunge has resumed:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2019/#Mar-31
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #230 on: March 31, 2019, 02:19:25 PM »
I have plotted at the recent melt compared to the annual maximum, minimum, previous season ice growth, and change in ice maximum from the previous season.

Great! Where can I see those plots?


Failure to disprove a null hypothesis isn't that interesting. Its you that needs to be coming up with the plots that do disprove it, not KK with the plots that don't.

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #231 on: March 31, 2019, 02:35:25 PM »
We don't need to look at plots or correlation coefficients on either side. We are dealing with WAY too little data here to make any conclusions whatsoever.  2012 proves this point. This week's weather and loses can only be bad for the ice and set up some level of pre-conditioning.  But it will be, as always, the weather that determines the ultimate minimum.  And nobody can predict that.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #232 on: March 31, 2019, 02:42:57 PM »
Just did a quick correlation of max and min extent. I get 0.79 correlation coefficient. But then again statistics are not needed because both max and minimum are part of the same system were each one depends on the other. Correlation is expected and not very useful.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #233 on: March 31, 2019, 03:14:44 PM »
Just did a quick correlation of max and min extent. I get 0.79 correlation coefficient. But then again statistics are not needed because both max and minimum are part of the same system were each one depends on the other. Correlation is expected and not very useful.

It comes as no surprise that in a connected system, the maximum and minimum are correlated.  As you state, that is not very useful.  Early season melt is not very indicative of the full season, as dnem pointed out.  2012 had the lowest early season melt.  By comparison, early season melt in 2002 was quite high - 2019 is actually paralleling 2002 quite closely.  However, as stated by dnem (and repeated by others), the weather will determine the ultimate minimum.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #234 on: March 31, 2019, 04:20:28 PM »
Its you that needs to be coming up with the plots that do disprove it, not KK with the plots that don't.

KK hasn't come up with any plots at all yet, that I have seen at least. Or even a "scientific" statement of his or her hypothesis. Perhaps you could elucidate for me?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #235 on: March 31, 2019, 04:36:20 PM »
Thank the Goddess that KK has thoroughly refuted any connection to early season melt (loudly and definitively I might add  ;) ) with final minimums or else I might start getting worried.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #236 on: March 31, 2019, 04:43:33 PM »
I, for one, will be keeping a very close eye on the Kara and Laptev as I am developing a persistent concern about the Atlantification of the Arctic.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #237 on: March 31, 2019, 04:50:09 PM »
I do generally hold the opinion that we should all be a little more circumspect about making definitive statements here as even the most rigorous climate scientists express uncertainty about what we can expect. If someone here chooses to toss aside caution and insist that something is the case, they should expect to be asked to show their research. If they fail to do so, it should come as no surprise if most here discount what they say.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #238 on: March 31, 2019, 04:57:34 PM »
In 2012 storms dispersed the ice in March, making the extent situation look much better than it was in reality. The thin dispersed ice rapidly melted in May and June. The situation this year is extremely bad because the thick ice is piled up on Greenland at the exit to the Fram strait and storms are thinning the ice at the margins at the Barents, Kara and Chukchi seas.

When we compare years it is most helpful to look at more than just the extent graphs and look at the thickness distribution and the salinity and heat at the 100m and 300m levels.

Yes, the weather this year will make the difference, but it looks very bad so far for sea ice. What we have seen in the past few weeks is the worst possible set up for a disastrous collapse this summer if the weather is warm and sunny.

And the CFS model predicts exactly that for the next 3 months, with a strong jet stream over the northern Pacific and a stronger than normal Aleutian low coupled with warm sunny high pressure over the western Arctic and Alaska.

This pattern ties in with the sudden stratospheric warming in late December coupled with the El Niño and active overturning in the Labrador sea.

All long range forecasts are subject to failure but this is forecast is about as bad as it gets for the sea ice.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #239 on: March 31, 2019, 05:08:31 PM »
I, for one, will be keeping a very close eye on the Kara and Laptev as I am developing a persistent concern about the Atlantification of the Arctic.
Recent area loss in the Kara and Laptev looks like more than the March wobbles up and down.
Over the next 3 days it looks like there will be an extra strong pulse of warmth from the south in the region.
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meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #240 on: March 31, 2019, 05:14:11 PM »
I've done NSIDC SIE Graphs; and current Graph prolonged by 2012 Melting Graph would take us
easy beneath 3 M km2.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #241 on: March 31, 2019, 05:15:53 PM »
Question, why isn't the DMI showing that much of an anomaly when there is a huge anomaly going on right now?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php


Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #242 on: March 31, 2019, 05:19:36 PM »
Its you that needs to be coming up with the plots that do disprove it, not KK with the plots that don't.

KK hasn't come up with any plots at all yet, that I have seen at least. Or even a "scientific" statement of his or her hypothesis. Perhaps you could elucidate for me?

If you could elucidate me on how to post my own plots, I would be grateful.  I have the insert image icon, but am unable to copy and paste my graphs.  Still, it was not that difficult to plot the NSIDC data.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #243 on: March 31, 2019, 05:23:02 PM »
I think that is because DMI covers temps North of 80 and N80 is where the only cold anomalies are in the Arctic right now and where there are the least hot anomalies.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #244 on: March 31, 2019, 05:24:55 PM »
If you could elucidate me on how to post my own plots, I would be grateful.  I have the insert image icon, but am unable to copy and paste my graphs.  Still, it was not that difficult to plot the NSIDC data.

Screenshot?

Command + Shift + 4 then select area on Mac.

For Windows, there are apps for that (google "Snipping Tool").

Darvince

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #245 on: March 31, 2019, 07:31:42 PM »
Despite high temps it's very hard to make a sustained drop in Kara and Laptev before mid-May, and in Chukchi before mid-April, as the ice is quite thick and any wind change closes the gaps in the ice. But Okhotsk, Bering and Barents are vulnerable enough.
Careful, or Mother Nature might see your post and decide that this is the year to start bringing Kara/Laptev melt earlier. ;)

Question, why isn't the DMI showing that much of an anomaly when there is a huge anomaly going on right now?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The DMI chart is for 80N+ only, and gives equal weight to each degree rather than all area above 80N, so it will represent mostly the conditions right around the pole, which is the only area of the Arctic below average right now. Based on model forecasts out to day-5 it should rise substantially in two or three days, as the cold heads over towards the Beaufort and the heat all around takes its place.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #246 on: March 31, 2019, 08:07:32 PM »
If you could elucidate me on how to post my own plots, I would be grateful.  I have the insert image icon, but am unable to copy and paste my graphs.  Still, it was not that difficult to plot the NSIDC data.

If you need to do a screenshot, it depends on your operating system. On Windows you can use the "Prt Sc" key then paste into Paint and edit if necessary. I prefer Jing though. On Linux I use Shutter.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #247 on: March 31, 2019, 08:12:04 PM »
I think that is because DMI covers temps North of 80 and N80 is where the only cold anomalies are in the Arctic right now and where there are the least hot anomalies.

Yea, wish there was a simple graph like that with true weights down to 67N , that would reach the 1960s at least so it'd represent better the anomalies.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #248 on: March 31, 2019, 08:51:50 PM »
If you could elucidate me on how to post my own plots, I would be grateful.  I have the insert image icon, but am unable to copy and paste my graphs.  Still, it was not that difficult to plot the NSIDC data.

Screenshot?

Command + Shift + 4 then select area on Mac.

For Windows, there are apps for that (google "Snipping Tool").
Insert image is for images on the web that have hyperlinks. If you mean your own graph on your computer, paste them into Paint, save them (best is width <700 pixels), and then attach them with your post (in attachments and other options, below the text box. Up to 4 files per post).

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #249 on: March 31, 2019, 09:04:32 PM »
Climate reanalyzer's GFS model based analysis for today gives an Arctic temperature anomaly of 7.5 C (13.5ºF). The attached image shows how there's a cold core around the pole surrounded by a very warm Arctic. The warmth over the Arctic has been advected from the north Pacific and north Atlantic oceans by intense storms and blocking highs. Blocking over Alaska has persistently recurred for months bringing very warm weather with it to Alaska and the Bering sea.