Before everyone gets superexcited about low extent numbers, we must realize that 2019 is very much the same as 2018 in the (inner) seas that matter. The difference between the two is that 2018 had much bigger Okhotsk Sea extent but that is irrelevant as the Okhotsk melts out anyway. See attachment. So, basically 2018 was the same as 2019 at this point.
It is true though that Pacification is very obvious in the past two years as never in previous years have we seen such an open Bering. What it means for the final, September numbers is still anybody's guess. It did not really matter last year, it might matter this year.
I've been pondering along the same lines. The Okhotsk is irrelevant to what will be happening in a few weeks.
The Bering is another matter. It's unclear me what charge of increased heat it is carrying and how much of it will pass in to the Chukchi.
Over all, I see open water in the peripheral seas far more relevant to the refreeze, when they create a heatvreserve that slows freezing in the central seas.
Weather in the central basin, coastal Alaska and Siberia are now key. How soon the rivers break up and when we see melt ponds is where things will hang in the balance.
The recent cooling has been hopeful and helpful, but I'm unsure if it is enough to check the momentum.