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Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 61926 times)

johnm33

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #450 on: April 14, 2019, 10:45:24 PM »
"That net loss in the center of the ice sheet is a little troubling."
 I've mostly been focussed on the losses through Jakobshvn and since there's no extra loss, as ice, above the surface it has to be lost as liquid below?

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #451 on: April 14, 2019, 11:57:57 PM »

mabarnes

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #452 on: April 15, 2019, 12:19:25 AM »
As it is recorded since Sep 1 I think that there couldn't hace occurred any melting since then, at least not in higher altitudes (> 300 m). Where does this mass loss come from? Snow drift by strong winds? Sublimation? Compaction (and therefore no mass loss, but slight elevation change, interpreted as mass loss)? I have no idea...

I believe that's a map of ANOMALY - so the areas in red have less mass buildup than baseline buildup-to-date (not mass loss); likewise, those in blue show greater than baseline buildup. 

Here's the melt map for total melt this season:

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #453 on: April 15, 2019, 02:25:19 AM »
The Nenena ice classic set a new record early breakup date; beating the record by a full six days!

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #454 on: April 15, 2019, 06:31:44 AM »
wallen ... fast sea ice cracking and pulling away along the Greenland coast.
I will attempt to browse Worldview tomorrow to see if anything is unprecedented.
Looking at Worldview it seems previous years had similar fast ice contours, for example 2016, and maybe 2014 and others.
If you see a specific location where you think this is not the case, please point out more specifically.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #455 on: April 15, 2019, 09:39:23 AM »
The Nenena ice classic set a new record early breakup date; beating the record by a full six days!

Indeed. Even the 1940s do not come close.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #456 on: April 15, 2019, 11:33:32 AM »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #457 on: April 15, 2019, 03:18:13 PM »
ECMWF shows for several days the high pressure system being maintained and even strengthen over the Gyre, that can produce early open water and leads along the coasts of Beaufort. Should refreeze, but not stay frozen for long.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #458 on: April 15, 2019, 03:45:42 PM »
Ever seen a jet stream at the north pole before?
I am not a scientist

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #459 on: April 15, 2019, 04:06:01 PM »
ECMWF shows for several days the high pressure system being maintained and even strengthen over the Gyre, that can produce early open water and leads along the coasts of Beaufort. Should refreeze, but not stay frozen for long.

I had expected to see the Beaufort open up ever so slightly already, given the winds have been blowing away from the coast - grosso modo- for a while now. Seems I was wrong.
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Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #460 on: April 15, 2019, 05:49:39 PM »
Slater projection is running again. Continuing to be quite accurate.

It appears to me that the prediction of 11.15 million km^2 for June 3rd does not match the ice shown in the image. In fact, it looks like the ice of today. They had this problem last season, and never rectified it.
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #461 on: April 15, 2019, 11:35:55 PM »
ECMWF shows for several days the high pressure system being maintained and even strengthen over the Gyre, that can produce early open water and leads along the coasts of Beaufort. Should refreeze, but not stay frozen for long.

I had expected to see the Beaufort open up ever so slightly already, given the winds have been blowing away from the coast - grosso modo- for a while now. Seems I was wrong.
Quite some open areas already, they refreeze immediately

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #462 on: April 15, 2019, 11:39:33 PM »
Slater projection is running again. Continuing to be quite accurate.

It appears to me that the prediction of 11.15 million km^2 for June 3rd does not match the ice shown in the image. In fact, it looks like the ice of today. They had this problem last season, and never rectified it.
It's probabilistic, as they explain.
"Do not mistake the blue colored areas as being a simplified extent forecast."

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #463 on: April 15, 2019, 11:51:48 PM »
I had expected to see the Beaufort open up ever so slightly already, given the winds have been blowing away from the coast - grosso modo- for a while now. Seems I was wrong.

NWS Anchorage break up outlook for the chukchi (issued at the end of March) :suggesting Chukchi could be a bit slower this year

"Looking at the big picture for the Chukchi Sea, sea ice is
relatively thick compared to the past couple winters through much of the Chukchi Sea. There is also an area of multi-year sea ice that has drifted through the central Chukchi Sea as far south as the waters offshore from Icy Cape. While sea ice along the coastline will likely break up slightly slower than last year, the area of multi-year sea ice will likely linger offshore quite a bit longer.."

Ktb

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #464 on: April 16, 2019, 03:50:03 AM »

It's probabilistic, as they explain.
"Do not mistake the blue colored areas as being a simplified extent forecast."

Reading is hard
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psymmo7

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #465 on: April 16, 2019, 08:14:26 AM »
Falling Records

Will this be the next one?

http://www.yukonriverbreakup.com/

The April 15 picture doesn't look encouraging


b_lumenkraft

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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #467 on: April 16, 2019, 09:03:09 PM »
Are melting ponds expected at this time of the year in Baffin Bay?

Link >> https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=77.25940114515242&lng=-78.3211898803711&zoom=11&preset=CUSTOM&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=73&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2018-10-01%7C2019-04-15&atmFilter=&showDates=true&evalscript=cmV0dXJuIFtCOEEqMSxCMDMqMSxCMDIqMV0%3D

(Click to play)

melt ponds can happen that far south, yes, just not on big scale and not in the central arctic up north, exceptions confirm the rules as usual.

i'm surprised that the ice is thick enough for ponds not falling through LOL [JK]
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Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #468 on: April 16, 2019, 09:08:53 PM »
Falling Records

Will this be the next one?

http://www.yukonriverbreakup.com/

The April 15 picture doesn't look encouraging
A graph with decadal averages would be nice to see a tendency whether the breakup is moved to earlier dates. From a glimpse on the table one could guess that the breakup has moved a little bit, but this needs further statistical analyses.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #469 on: April 16, 2019, 10:07:10 PM »
Are melting ponds expected at this time of the year in Baffin Bay?


Nullschool was showing peak temperatures in that location of -18 C. So not now.

Trick of the rendering.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #470 on: April 16, 2019, 11:38:32 PM »
Are melting ponds expected at this time of the year in Baffin Bay?


Nullschool was showing peak temperatures in that location of -18 C. So not now.

Trick of the rendering.

i should have used the link that points way north, hence you're right of course

talking about baffin bay, i was a bit more south in my thoughts the lead to the answer, i.e. sisimut belongs to baffin bay as well and is around -8 right now and can be -4 at times at this time of the year and the sun down there is not sooo... weak anymore now, hence considering his link the answer is "not very probable or dunno" talking all baffin bay it's possible, there is even open water in parts.

thanks for making me look again more thoroughly, next time i'll look it up first before shooting away. ;)
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #471 on: April 17, 2019, 05:11:19 AM »
Falling Records

Will this be the next one?

http://www.yukonriverbreakup.com/

The April 15 picture doesn't look encouraging
A graph with decadal averages would be nice to see a tendency whether the breakup is moved to earlier dates. From a glimpse on the table one could guess that the breakup has moved a little bit, but this needs further statistical analyses.
Break up has definitely occurred earlier in recent years. I do not have an updated graph handy- but i should make one- I wish I were better at excel....Because of the inertia associated with ice melt, breakup tends to damp out short term weather and, on average, the date of breakup tracks very well with climate trends- later early in the 20th century, warm in the 1940s, trending later into the early 1960s and a gradual warming trend side then,  which appears to be accelerating, although it is too soon to see this from the data. I do not think 2019 will break the 2016  record, but it has a really good shot at second place. OK, I found my old graph, I'll work on updating it....

Sebastian Jones

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #472 on: April 17, 2019, 07:56:30 AM »
OK, here is my crappy graph- many thanks to Oren for explaining how to attach it...Advance apologies that the April dates appear as negative May dates....Nonetheless, the trend is clear, breakup is a week earlier than a century ago. Something similar is evident regarding freeze up too, but freeze up is way more complex because it is affected by river height, which drops during fall.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #473 on: April 17, 2019, 08:44:06 AM »


Nullschool was showing peak temperatures in that location of -18 C. So not now.

Trick of the rendering.

Thanks guys! :)

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #474 on: April 17, 2019, 09:37:33 AM »
April 11-16.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #475 on: April 17, 2019, 09:55:33 AM »
April 11-16.
So the Chukchi and Kara managed to stage a comeback of sorts. But the Bering did not and is over for the season, and now the Beaufort open water does not refreeze anymore.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #476 on: April 17, 2019, 11:36:39 AM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, greenland, apr10-16.
wipneus regional extent  https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Southerlies likely to be dominant for the next two days.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #477 on: April 17, 2019, 04:18:03 PM »
April 11-16.
So the Chukchi and Kara managed to stage a comeback of sorts. But the Bering did not and is over for the season, and now the Beaufort open water does not refreeze anymore.
The Chukchi was a partial recovery (not yet finished?).
The Kara and Laptev have staged complete recovery.
The Beaufort is just dithering around the max.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #478 on: April 17, 2019, 05:59:39 PM »
There has been a major shift in the atmospheric circulation pattern around the Arctic. The ridging which persisted over Alaska in February and March has ended while a strong ridge has set up over Scandinavia. This has allowed for an apparent recovery on the Alaskan side of the Arctic, although the reformed ice is very thin and won't last long. The heat on the Atlantic side won't show large effects on metrics because it is going over thick ice that was piled up at the exit to the Fram strait.

One not so good thing for sea ice about this atmospheric circulation pattern is that the coldest anomaly is focused on Baffin bay with strong north winds down the bay. This will enhance the circulation of warm salty water into the bay along the coast of Greenland and the flow of icy fresh water out of the bay into the Labrador sea. This will favor continued overturning in the Labrador sea and the release of oceanic heat to atmosphere over the far north Atlantic and subpolar seas.

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #479 on: April 17, 2019, 10:35:24 PM »
OK, here is my crappy graph- ....
Thank you Sebastian. The trend is clearly going down, and it is of course overlaid by individual weather patterns each year, whose influence is bigger than the trendline which makes the graph look very "spiky". But this is normal for these kind of graphs.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #480 on: Today at 01:14:21 PM »
 Current high pressures sustained, and strengthen to dominate the Arctic for a week, must widen the already existing gaps of Beaufort coasts.
Early open water has been key to melt the Beaufort and make a strong melting season