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FlyOnTheWall

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #650 on: May 02, 2019, 02:59:09 AM »
Hi All,
I'm a longtime lurker, first time poster. Does anyone know why the climatereanalyzer site is unavailable? And when it may be available again? (Sorry if this isn't the right thread for such a question.)
Thanks!

<Answer is here; N.>
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 08:40:53 AM by Neven »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #651 on: May 02, 2019, 05:41:02 AM »
Cool site Magnamentis. Thanks for the link.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #652 on: May 02, 2019, 07:18:29 AM »
April 26 - May 1.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #653 on: May 02, 2019, 08:55:06 AM »
Welcome, FlyOnTheWall. The first post is the hardest...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #654 on: May 02, 2019, 08:57:09 AM »
Hi All,
I'm a longtime lurker, first time poster.
Hello and welcome FlyOnTheWall. :)

interstitial

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #655 on: May 02, 2019, 10:25:13 AM »
welcome Fly On The Wall.  8)
On another thread, 2019 sea ice area and extent data reply 681, it was reported, by Gerontocrat, that they were having problems with their cloud provider and no word on when the problem will be resolved. :(
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 10:30:26 AM by interstitial »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #656 on: May 02, 2019, 06:41:53 PM »
The recent clear out of cold from the Pacific side over to the Atlantic has resulted in Longyearbyen in Svalbard recording a below normal daily mean (-9.2 C) on May 1st. This is the first below normal daily mean there since March 16th.

Persistent northerlies has meant the pack is pushed against the north coast of island of Spizbergen - something that hasnt happened since July 2017.

Nevertheless April 2019 was another very mild month in Svalbard  - with no below "normal" day at Longyearbyen.

The climate is changing so fast in Svalbard they will have to come up with new ways of defining what "normality" is. 15 year norm periods ?  :o

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #657 on: May 03, 2019, 04:18:57 AM »
May 2nd, Pacific heat entering the Arctic

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #658 on: May 03, 2019, 06:33:37 AM »
<snippage>
Persistent northerlies has meant the pack is pushed against the north coast of island of Spizbergen - something that hasnt happened since July 2017.
It appears Fram export is ramping up in tandem with this.  Just the last few days it appears the ice has been accelerating through it.  The northerlies no doubt are contributing to this.

Velocities appear to be approaching 1-1.5KPH.  At current concentrations, that's upwards of 10,000KM2 a day of the thickest ice in the region past the point of no return.
This space for Rent.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #659 on: May 03, 2019, 11:19:41 AM »
On the ice temperatures from the whoi itp bouys 104-110. Interesting that they indicate slightly warmer temperatures than nullschool today. (I rarely compare them)
Both 107 and 110 briefly >0C recently   https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163096
itp103 hasn't reported since apr30 :(
« Last Edit: May 03, 2019, 11:41:15 AM by uniquorn »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #660 on: May 03, 2019, 11:46:14 AM »
<snippage>
Persistent northerlies has meant the pack is pushed against the north coast of island of Spizbergen - something that hasnt happened since July 2017.
It appears Fram export is ramping up in tandem with this.  Just the last few days it appears the ice has been accelerating through it.  The northerlies no doubt are contributing to this.

Velocities appear to be approaching 1-1.5KPH.  At current concentrations, that's upwards of 10,000KM2 a day of the thickest ice in the region past the point of no return.
Those "persistent northerlies" started out as "persistent southerlies" from the North Pacific.
A lot of ice heading south into the Atlantic killing zone?

Northerlies will gradually reduce in strength over the next few days according to weatherforecast.com
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #661 on: May 03, 2019, 06:39:27 PM »
A comparison of 2019 and 2016 using uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh apr1-may2.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #662 on: May 03, 2019, 07:40:53 PM »
Thank you uniquorn.
The Beaufort was crazy in 2016.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #663 on: May 04, 2019, 04:04:55 AM »
Thank you uniquorn.

Could agree more.

The Beaufort was crazy in 2016.

Beaufort is just getting its spin on now. It is soon to almost similarish to 2016. Albeit seriously less separation, BUT with a much deeper cut into the fast ice between Banks Island and the continent (what is that channel called?).
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #664 on: May 04, 2019, 04:27:02 AM »
Barents ice has been push south about 100 km in the last 2 weeks. In May it will see a sudden and epic 300k+ drop.
big time oops

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #665 on: May 04, 2019, 09:05:34 AM »
I am not a scientist

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #666 on: May 04, 2019, 09:49:51 AM »
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


What is even happening?
Looks like the Arctic High pressure area is re-establishing itself and normal, but a bit warmer, service of weather with the western (ZONAL) winds and episodic associated fronts might again start in the temperate NH instead of latitudinal (F... always getting these the wrong way... MERIDIONAL) north-south winds. Of course this is happening when arctic is getting much sunlight, so the Arctic cloudiness of later summer, that we've gotten used to in recent post-2012 years is likely to reappear once we hit the highest insolation days in about a month. Did the Pacific burst of warmish air clear the supply of cold air for longer period? The North European spring/early summer may continue soonish. It's hard to decide what to want, are the prolonged periods of weather of the same type good or would we prefer a more changing weather be it bad or fair? The latter might be coming for a bit, imho. (Hopefully vague enough, weather is a difficult subject)
« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 03:29:49 PM by Pmt111500 »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #667 on: May 04, 2019, 04:53:36 PM »
I hope we all remember that after 2007 Serreze looked at 'perfect melt storms' of export and melt for any 'cycle' and found a ten to twenty year return period for the synoptic.

The two prior to 07' showed a 10 year return period.

Since 2017 we have been in the 'return period' for such an event so the sight of HP dominance and strong di-pole has me a tad twitchy!

Have we altered atmospheric patterns to the point that the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic no longer exists or are we seeing the basin settle into the patterns needed for it to return?

I have maintained,for over a decade now,that such a return would be one way for us to see the B.O.E. appear early (before it becomes a norm) is it this year?
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #668 on: May 04, 2019, 09:34:03 PM »
Warmth and yet more warmth is coming into Baffin Bay and beyond from now. Attached is a map of the daily max temps on 8th May, which looks like persisting.

I am not sure if I have seen such a map so early in the season that looks like being so persistent.
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sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #669 on: May 04, 2019, 10:34:42 PM »
bears repeating: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Quote
Final Warmings are not my expertise, but I am surprised to observe what appears to be very robust troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling so late in the season and for it to apparently have the classic tropospheric signature of Greenland blocking and cold temperatures both in Europe and North America.  Though it does seem that such an event is not unprecedented.  I thank @nitzancohen for pointing out to me that something similar occurred in May 1997.  I include the PCHs for all of 1997 (Figure ii) and I was surprised to see that the most impressing warming of the stratospheric PCHs for that entire year took place in May.  The warm/positive PCHs in the lower troposphere lasted for about a month from early May until early June.  Observed temperature anomalies from May 5 through June 5, 1997 shows below normal temperatures in eastern North America and Northern Europe for that period (Figure iii).

The below figure is Dr Judah Cohen's charted GFS forecast for polar cap height (GPH anomaly)

Again.  What is even happening?
« Last Edit: May 04, 2019, 10:43:44 PM by sark »
I am not a scientist

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #670 on: May 04, 2019, 11:23:07 PM »
bears repeating: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Quote
Final Warmings are not my expertise, but I am surprised to observe what appears to be very robust troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling so late in the season and for it to apparently have the classic tropospheric signature of Greenland blocking and cold temperatures both in Europe and North America.  Though it does seem that such an event is not unprecedented.  I thank @nitzancohen for pointing out to me that something similar occurred in May 1997.  I include the PCHs for all of 1997 (Figure ii) and I was surprised to see that the most impressing warming of the stratospheric PCHs for that entire year took place in May.  The warm/positive PCHs in the lower troposphere lasted for about a month from early May until early June.  Observed temperature anomalies from May 5 through June 5, 1997 shows below normal temperatures in eastern North America and Northern Europe for that period (Figure iii).

The below figure is Dr Judah Cohen's charted GFS forecast for polar cap height (GPH anomaly)

Again.  What is even happening?

Can you break this down Barney Style for newbs like me?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #671 on: May 05, 2019, 12:10:48 AM »
What apparently is happening is that greenhouse gases are speeding up the Brewer Dobson circulation - the flow of air from the troposphere to the stratosphere and back. In this case is is causing subsidence over Greenland, the Beaufort sea and the high Arctic. This is why, barring the lucky occurrence of cool cloudy stormy July, I think we are likely to see a new record sea ice minimum this September.

https://acomstaff.acom.ucar.edu/randel/Garcia_Randel_JAS.pdf

As Cohen wrote in his blog post, this subsidence tends to persist. A very warm sunny May maximizes the input of solar heat early, potentially allowing for a high amount of feedback due to reduced albedo in response to low early snow and sea ice extents.

These stratospheric processes may have a large impact on September sea ice extent, area and volume. Depending on the index, Greenland has had the 2nd earliest or earliest early melting and the western side of Greenland had little snow in the winter so it will rapidly darken when the west side has surface melting.

The stratospheric events of the past 6 months have been a real shocker. I think the high pressure over Greenland and the western Arctic will likely continue into June.

Below is an earth.nullschool.net image of the lower stratospheric temperature and circulation at 17Z 4May19. It shows warm air sinking over the pole. That subsidence continues into the troposphere.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #672 on: May 05, 2019, 01:24:26 AM »
I am not a scientist

echoughton

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echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #674 on: May 05, 2019, 03:25:33 AM »
PLEASE make note of that date..May 13...and retrieve in 9 days and see how ridiculous posted 9 day guesses are. Really getting tiresome. Those long range models are rarely even in the ball-park, let alone verify.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #675 on: May 05, 2019, 03:27:53 AM »
What apparently is happening.....


At this stage I will remind you  Foow of  a pronouncement you made  in another thread early in the year of a cold winter for western Europe. (Based on Sudden SW). It did not happen..


sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #676 on: May 05, 2019, 04:14:26 AM »
Why bother
I am not a scientist

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #677 on: May 05, 2019, 07:50:55 AM »
April 29 - May 4.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #678 on: May 05, 2019, 09:08:09 AM »
A very warm sunny May maximizes the input of solar heat early, potentially allowing for a high amount of feedback due to reduced albedo in response to low early snow and sea ice extents.

I tend to agree, but does anyone have a chart showing May (pressure over the Arctic? cloudiness? etc?) vs later melt?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #679 on: May 05, 2019, 05:18:54 PM »
We had very cold weather in the north central U.S. after Jan 15 this year as I forecast. Long range forecasts are notoriously hard to get better than climatology. The one I made before Christmas and posted elsewhere was about as good as those kinds of forecasts get. You got no "beast from the east" in Europe following the late December SSW but the north central and north eastern U.S. was brutalized by polar air.

Here's what happened in late spring early summer 1997, perhaps an analogous year to this one.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #680 on: May 05, 2019, 05:22:54 PM »
Thanks, FishOutofWater for your insights. I for one appreciate them.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #681 on: May 05, 2019, 07:00:10 PM »
Thanks, FishOutofWater for your insights. I for one appreciate them.

  + 1 .. probably + 100's .. :)

  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #682 on: May 05, 2019, 09:31:31 PM »
Occasional over freezing temps may have caused some wetting of the ice off Alaskan coasts, not much, nothing near Canada, but note the shift toward red in the upper part of this MODIS 3-6-7 corrected reflectance image. This agrees with report from buoys, brought by Uniquorn.
Near Bering even the 7-2-1 images showed darkening blue as expected after the wave, and that means some ponds, this was evident especially near the edge. Today is overcast over there.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #683 on: May 06, 2019, 04:57:51 AM »
April 29 - May 4.

Beaufort looks like it is in baaaaaaaad shape.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #684 on: May 06, 2019, 08:29:08 AM »
Yeah and it will suffer a heat wave right over the Beauforts area, above zero temps with high pressure in 15-20 days.  I guarantee it.

Ask me how I know
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Rodius

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #685 on: May 06, 2019, 09:58:40 AM »
Yeah and it will suffer a heat wave right over the Beauforts area, above zero temps with high pressure in 15-20 days.  I guarantee it.

Ask me how I know

How do you know?

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #686 on: May 06, 2019, 10:19:00 AM »
I guaranteed forecast for 15-20 days! Truly amazing, an unmatched feat so far by even the  best computer models.

So I beg you answer:

How do yo know?

meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #687 on: May 06, 2019, 11:15:36 AM »
In 15- 20 Days Melting begins, so 0 °C Temps will be pretty much common everywhere in the Arctic.

Genius.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #688 on: May 06, 2019, 12:02:55 PM »
LOL
In fact CFS (long range) predictions in two weeks and for June show this Beaufort anomaly and pretty much Arctic wide surface melt.
But I don't trust CFS much less when surface melt starts, and I dont want to be eaten up by the forum so I dont bring it about, and anyway you can check it at tropicaltidbits.com

But yeah, I love Meddoc response (only that surface melting onset sometimes is delayed by weeks... but doesnt seem it will be really late this year does it?).

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #689 on: May 06, 2019, 12:32:53 PM »
I like the long range forecasts. The melting season threads have always been full of them (as far back as I've gone). I would like them a lot more, and learn more, if the OP posted reanalysis on them 10days later. or20d ;)

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #690 on: May 06, 2019, 02:40:06 PM »
I like them too but not between May and November... Or so. The CFS in particular, I don't know what it makes of the melting ice, but something goes very wrong in Summer.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #691 on: May 06, 2019, 02:59:18 PM »
I don't like them, specially as they seem to crop up more often than present or historic data. This creates a subconscious bias towards imaginary Arctic set ups.

I understand forecasts can sometimes be insightful, and I like that part, but I think it is being overdone. I like Uniquorn's comments, maybe an etiquette can be created were anyone that posts a forecast owes the thread the actual resolution of that forecast.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 07:08:37 PM by Archimid »
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Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #692 on: May 06, 2019, 06:55:38 PM »
I also recommend a re-vision of long-term forecasts to prove whether they have become true. And - if possible - an analysis why they haven't become true if this is the case.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #693 on: May 06, 2019, 07:54:16 PM »
I would propose a 'Long Term Weather Forcast Thread'.

There are obviously people not interested in this kind of content. By having it in a separate thread they could easily avoid it. And the ones interested wouldn't feel restricted and could post freely.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #694 on: May 06, 2019, 08:40:21 PM »
Weather forecasts are certainly appropriate for this melting season thread. How can we discuss the season otherwise. I agree that if someone posts a long term forecast, they should be responsible for providing an update as to the accuracy of the original forecast.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #695 on: May 06, 2019, 09:08:25 PM »
It should be easy to analyze how well forecasts pan out. If you download all the images from Climate Reanalyzer every time the model updates and tag them with the model run date/time and the valid date/time, after collecting enough images you can animate how the forecast for one date evolved. You just take one image from each model run and animate from oldest to newest. For example with the 81 frames from the GFS animation, you would take frame 81 from the first run, frame 80 from the second run, etc. The images are small and there are only 324 per day in this case.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #696 on: May 07, 2019, 05:57:19 AM »
I can firmly predict that many of the predictions, whether informed, uninformed, sophisticated, scientific, heuristic, statistical, intuitive, mystical, or just flat-out clueless, for the arctic weather in mid-May, ten days from now, will be wrong. Some of them will also come close to the truth.

The thing that I find fascinating about this subject is that there's no readily apparent correlation between the amount of money, science, expertise, and technological awesomeness that goes into such predictions and their eventual accuracy.

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #697 on: May 07, 2019, 12:12:36 PM »
GLOBAL Ice - well below the line. 
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #698 on: May 07, 2019, 01:00:41 PM »
3 incorrect predictions and then the user gets a warning label stuck over their username for all to see?

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #699 on: May 07, 2019, 01:07:03 PM »
Back on topic;

JAXA extent continues to track with 2016 (a bad year indeed), yet the FDD implies the ice is actually in pretty good shape and is similar to 2013 (one of the best years of the decade)?