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Often Distant

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #750 on: May 10, 2019, 11:54:27 AM »
Quote from: bbr2314

Siberia's snow melt has accelerated rapidly.

Interesting, worldview is displaying fires/thermal anomalies causing or resulting from recent rapid snow melt patches opening up through Siberia near 70°N. The speed between ice cover and fire is rather worrisome with summer yet weeks away.


A thermal anomaly causing rapid snow melt through the Kamchatka Peninsula weeks back was due to volcanic activity.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #751 on: May 10, 2019, 12:34:57 PM »
Quote from: bbr2314

Siberia's snow melt has accelerated rapidly.
Interesting, worldview is displaying fires/thermal anomalies causing or resulting from recent rapid snow melt patches opening up through Siberia near 70°N. The speed between ice cover and fire is rather worrisome with summer yet weeks away.

The attached map from Environment Canada shows variation in snow depth from average. The red line shows average extent.

Snow cover extent in Siberia is average, as is North America extent apart from NE Canada. i.e. no big deal.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #752 on: May 10, 2019, 01:24:03 PM »
Thank you gerontocrat for that nice map.

dosibl

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #753 on: May 10, 2019, 02:49:22 PM »
Snow cover graphs/maps have also been added at cryospherecomputing.tk, I've really been digging the new site.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #754 on: May 10, 2019, 03:45:50 PM »
Why do I keep getting the impression that the entire basin of ice is rotating clockwise?

High pressure.  it's all anticyclonic from space to surface.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-84.79,85.32,419
Add that North Atlantic Drift isn't what it used to be so little to no opposite forces.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #755 on: May 11, 2019, 06:41:44 AM »
Glacier that moved 60 feet a year, now moves 60ft a day; (Vavilov Ice Cap in Laptev)

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/144790/a-surprising-surge-at-vavilov-ice-cap

Another link with a good video;

https://earther.gizmodo.com/watch-a-russian-glacier-experience-sudden-unprecedente-1829194880

Satellite time lapse;

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=79.29346,94.90916,7.13,latLng&t=0.8&ps=100&bt=
19840101&et=20181231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 07:02:18 AM by ReverendMilkbone »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #756 on: May 11, 2019, 02:37:08 PM »
nice video

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pleun

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #758 on: May 11, 2019, 06:44:17 PM »
maybe it's just me, but with all the negative forecasts, I would have expected extent to go down much faster than it actually does. any thoughts ?

bluice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #759 on: May 11, 2019, 07:08:10 PM »
https://cires.colorado.edu/news/unprecedented-ice-loss-russian-ice-cap

Vavilov ice cap lost 4,5 km3 of volume in one year during it’s collapse. There’s a lot of talk about MISI and MICI and whatnot, but if one wonders how an unstable abruptly collapsing ice sheet looks like, this is a pretty good candidate. It seems ice sheets are a lot less stable than what was thought before.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #760 on: May 11, 2019, 07:11:22 PM »
Lincoln Sea ice not looking good today.
Worldview aqua modis, may10-11 https://go.nasa.gov/2E47pcm

meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #761 on: May 11, 2019, 07:21:44 PM »
Lincoln Sea ice not looking good today.


YIKES!
Nothing like that in recent History this early.

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #762 on: May 11, 2019, 08:11:58 PM »
...and you can see one of the "amoeba ice remains" of VBC (forgot the number - for details see "VBC poll thread" in the Greenland folder) breaking up.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #763 on: May 11, 2019, 08:17:16 PM »
maybe rotate 90deg and post on melting thread?

Here we go!

Animation of the extreme crackification alongside Greenlands most northern coastline.

(Click GIF to animate)

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #764 on: May 11, 2019, 08:47:22 PM »
At least it means a temporary reversal of Fram export. The worst movements are continuos ones.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #765 on: May 11, 2019, 08:54:39 PM »
That NNW Greenland coastal crack is quite something!  If movement of the 'triangle' is more than a temporary or intermittent thing, this year will be different from at least most years (all? - would have to do research, and not just remember), and yes, 'worst' possibility.  The ice there certainly hasn't aged long, compared with most previous years. 

There has been many a discussion on the effect a frequently cracking ice pack will have:  things like more young ice and more heat loss from the Arctic Ocean, more mobility, higher dispersion (area/extent).
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #766 on: May 11, 2019, 09:23:18 PM »
At least it means a temporary reversal of Fram export.

Sorry Oren, but i have my doubts about this. For how i see it Fram export has rather increased recently. I will keep this in sight and will report.

Edit: add GIF 07.04 to 11.05 for reference.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 09:36:38 PM by b_lumenkraft »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #767 on: May 11, 2019, 10:07:09 PM »
Mercator (model) salinity 0m and 34m indicating a surge of atlantic water around north greenland combined with returning atlantic water from the north. The surge may be temporary, the other isn't.

The CAA coast isn't looking too good either. https://go.nasa.gov/2DYOu2z
@b_l nice, but there are many repeat frames in that ani
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 10:17:36 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #768 on: May 11, 2019, 11:02:33 PM »
Thanks for the gif b_l. It does seem not to be slowing at all.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #769 on: May 11, 2019, 11:27:55 PM »
Worldview aqua modis caa and nth greenland today.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #770 on: May 12, 2019, 02:09:02 AM »
Worldview aqua modis caa and nth greenland today.

 cheers Uniquorn .. I looked back to 11.05.2007 on Worldview and saw almost the same pattern of cracks . I was wondering if an active Nares could be more important than anyone has imagined ? It is as if the Arctic's strength .. the Canadian - Greenland - Pole triangle is compromised .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #771 on: May 12, 2019, 08:16:07 AM »
May 7-11.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #772 on: May 12, 2019, 08:51:27 AM »
May 7-11.
I note what looks like an open water refreeze in the Laptev.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #773 on: May 12, 2019, 09:26:53 AM »
The Laptev Sea via Nasa Worldview, 01.05. to 12.05.

Looks like ice drift, no?

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #774 on: May 12, 2019, 10:24:08 AM »
Probably a combination of re-freezing and fragmented ice moving back in, though the latter is now becoming more dominant. The animation below (Laptev April 24-May 12) shows there was more re-freezing up to a few days ago. Also keep in mind that there's some flashing/unflashing going on in the Uni Bremen SIC animation Aluminium posted.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #775 on: May 12, 2019, 11:28:50 AM »
What's flashing/unflashing Neven?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #776 on: May 12, 2019, 11:32:16 AM »
ecmwf and gfs indicating temperature around -4C in that area of Laptev. Refreeze? A bit too cloudy to tell. edit: correction, there is refreeze https://go.nasa.gov/2JBxqDp

uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, may4-11 showing the fracture spreading west to east along the CAA coast.
Worldview viirs brightness temperature (band15) night appears to show a surge continuing eastward around the north of greenland.
Something else happening as well as the possible currents indicated upthread.
edit: Southerlies on the 7th, cyclone on the 8th dragging more southerlies along the coast maybe? Small cyclone in Lincoln today.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2019, 12:13:42 PM by uniquorn »

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #777 on: May 12, 2019, 12:17:49 PM »
What's flashing/unflashing Neven?

Sometimes large swathes of ice can disappear from one day to the next on the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps. This is now colloquially known as 'flash melting', or 'flashing', as in 'flash, it's gone'. But some of this ice then re-appears again in subsequent days, it 'unflashes'.

I introduced the term 'flash melting' back in 2011, as a pun on 'flash flooding'. I used the term 'unflashing' in this 2012 post, for instance, during the GAC-2012.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #778 on: May 12, 2019, 12:23:35 PM »
What's flashing/unflashing Neven?

Sometimes large swathes of ice can disappear from one day to the next on the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps. This is now colloquially known as 'flash melting', or 'flashing', as in 'flash, it's gone'. But some of this ice then re-appears again in subsequent days, it 'unflashes'.

I introduced the term 'flash melting' back in 2011, as a pun on 'flash flooding'. I used the term 'unflashing' in this 2012 post, for instance, during the GAC-2012.
This may even have a physical explantion, as some satellite sensors may get cofused  with low altitude fog or surface melt, the initiation of meltpooling.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #779 on: May 12, 2019, 03:40:59 PM »
What's flashing/unflashing Neven?

Sometimes large swathes of ice can disappear from one day to the next on the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps. This is now colloquially known as 'flash melting', or 'flashing', as in 'flash, it's gone'. But some of this ice then re-appears again in subsequent days, it 'unflashes'.

I introduced the term 'flash melting' back in 2011, as a pun on 'flash flooding'. I used the term 'unflashing' in this 2012 post, for instance, during the GAC-2012.
This may even have a physical explantion, as some satellite sensors may get cofused  with low altitude fog or surface melt, the initiation of meltpooling.

It may just be that currents move the ice/slush into compacted regions such that the 15% threshold is breached, and are registered as such in the satellite sensors - as Neven mentioned in his original definition.  Just noise in the system.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #780 on: May 12, 2019, 03:43:54 PM »
What's flashing/unflashing Neven?

Sometimes large swathes of ice can disappear from one day to the next on the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps. This is now colloquially known as 'flash melting', or 'flashing', as in 'flash, it's gone'. But some of this ice then re-appears again in subsequent days, it 'unflashes'.

I introduced the term 'flash melting' back in 2011, as a pun on 'flash flooding'. I used the term 'unflashing' in this 2012 post, for instance, during the GAC-2012.

Thanks, Neven, Kat and Pmt. :)

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #781 on: May 12, 2019, 04:23:35 PM »
What's flashing/unflashing Neven?

Sometimes large swathes of ice can disappear from one day to the next on the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps. This is now colloquially known as 'flash melting', or 'flashing', as in 'flash, it's gone'. But some of this ice then re-appears again in subsequent days, it 'unflashes'.

I introduced the term 'flash melting' back in 2011, as a pun on 'flash flooding'. I used the term 'unflashing' in this 2012 post, for instance, during the GAC-2012.
I remember last July when almost all of the Hudson Bay Sea Ice "disappeared" over night which obviously was not true. Some days later the sea ice "reappeared" in the graphs and tables...
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #782 on: May 12, 2019, 08:56:45 PM »
So, will the ice entirely lift off from the CAA/Greenland coast?

(I had long thought that would be the death knell if it happened in, say, August - but this is different.)

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #783 on: May 12, 2019, 09:15:29 PM »
ECMWF suggests some southerly winds over the Kara Sea over the next couple days, might see meaningful losses three over the next couple days.  At day three, a period of strong easterly winds should begin north of Alaska, this'll could really open up the Beaufort (beginning in 3 days) I'm well aware of the pitfalls of trusting the models, but this has been consistent in several models.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #784 on: May 12, 2019, 10:39:06 PM »
So, will the ice entirely lift off from the CAA/Greenland coast?

Images from Greenland's Martin Jessup and Nord areas, East from Lincoln Sea.
Big open cracks?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #785 on: May 12, 2019, 10:54:25 PM »
Big open cracks?

Yes. All the way down to the Beaufort Sea. One giant crack and there is no connecting to any CAA coastline anywhere anymore at the moment.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #786 on: May 12, 2019, 11:25:44 PM »
Worldview aqua modis, lincoln and wendel seas, may12 or nearest clearest day, 2010-2019
Maybe it's not so bad.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #787 on: May 13, 2019, 12:00:01 AM »
So...new poster here trying to orient myself to what's going in the Arctic. So many variables its tough to get a feel.

Looking at uniquorns gif in post # 776, it appears the ice in the entire Arctic is moving as one. Lifting off the Greenland and Canadian coast and rotating in a clockwise direction.

What stops the whole thing from continuing to rotate around to Fram Strait and exiting?


Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #788 on: May 13, 2019, 01:27:08 AM »
2016 has been mentioned quite a lot (as an analog to this year).

In early May 2016 the cracks were even bigger than this year. Only plus was at least the Nares was blocked then.

Click to animate

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #789 on: May 13, 2019, 03:16:26 AM »
I haven't followed any of this so bear with me if this is a wrong conclusion.

But it looks like the Euro and the global forecasting system.  I'm using talk to text that's why I didn't just say GFS because sometimes it doesn't come out right.


Anyways both of them at least on their runs today in about 48 to 60 hours start essentially a hemispheric wide pattern change and the upper latitudes.

You can see not just high pressure blowing up in around the Beaufort sea.

But the huge banana high pressure structure becomes evident.  With the cut-off vortex just south of Greenland and over Eastern Canada.

The way the euro depicts this straight nasty.

But both models are now onto this.


Infact the GEM and UKMET is going down the same path.


For those who are not aware:


Meteorology speaking this setup is essentially the Holy Grail of having a record-setting Arctic sea ice loss during the summer.

Solar energy right now is booming over the arctic.  The best way to set up things for huge loses of sea ice is sprawling upper level atmospheric ridges of high pressure that exist from top down.

This is the path to dry sinking air and wall to wall sunny skies. 

We have never had a May 20-30th GARGANTUAN RIDGE that preconditioned the ice for huge June and July loses.


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ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #790 on: May 13, 2019, 04:43:03 AM »
The way the euro depicts this straight nasty.

For those who are not aware:

Meteorology speaking this setup is essentially the Holy Grail of having a record-setting Arctic sea of sea ice is sprawling upper level atmospheric ridges of high pressure that exist from top down.

This is the path to dry sinking air and wall to wall sunny skies. 

We have never had a May 20-30th GARGANTUAN RIDGE that preconditioned the ice for huge June and July loses.

Stay tuned

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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #791 on: May 13, 2019, 05:21:36 AM »
So...new poster here trying to orient myself to what's going in the Arctic. So many variables its tough to get a feel.

Looking at uniquorns gif in post # 776, it appears the ice in the entire Arctic is moving as one. Lifting off the Greenland and Canadian coast and rotating in a clockwise direction.

What stops the whole thing from continuing to rotate around to Fram Strait and exiting?

The traditional answer has been 'the next winter'. Nowadys we often see ridges and throughs enter the Arctic on few locations and these would slow the regular anticyclonic pattern down, often a low pressure area enters Beaufort Sea, or an Atlantic one get stuck somewhere round Svalbard, instead of tracking the coastline like they used to. The next push of warmer air from south might well disrupt this pattern that indeed enhances the natural (due earths rotation) anticyclonic flow of Arctic waters.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #792 on: May 13, 2019, 07:45:59 AM »

This is the path to dry sinking air and wall to wall sunny skies. 


I think you're likely not wrong Friv - it kind of looks that way.

The ironic part is that whilst all those southward-blowing winds will be pushing ice out into the death zone, carrying the fog and clouds that form over warming ice and open water out of the picture, and leaving the midnight sun to do it's thing, half the people on this forum will be watching the temporarily low extent loss (perhaps even increase) and declaring the whole season a nothingburger.

« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 07:59:00 AM by epiphyte »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #793 on: May 13, 2019, 08:10:48 AM »
So...new poster here trying to orient myself to what's going in the Arctic. So many variables its tough to get a feel.

Looking at uniquorns gif in post # 776, it appears the ice in the entire Arctic is moving as one. Lifting off the Greenland and Canadian coast and rotating in a clockwise direction.

What stops the whole thing from continuing to rotate around to Fram Strait and exiting?

Well, that's gonna be the Big Question. As winds & storms getting ever stronger in lower latitudes, even- I guess at the Arctic it must be more pronounced.

That kind of a lift- off caught my Attention first in August 2015, when I first saw the Ice Cap detached from Greenland + CAA. It was a shocker even back then.
Let alone now, so early in May...

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #794 on: May 13, 2019, 09:26:09 AM »
One month of Kara Sea. A tale of Atlantic waters?

13.04. to 13.05. via Nasa Worldview

(Click GIF to animate)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #795 on: May 13, 2019, 09:55:59 AM »
The ironic part is that whilst all those southward-blowing winds will be pushing ice out into the death zone, carrying the fog and clouds that form over warming ice and open water out of the picture, and leaving the midnight sun to do it's thing, half the people on this forum will be watching the temporarily low extent loss (perhaps even increase) and declaring the whole season a nothingburger.
Sea ice extent and area data is - what is. The midnight sun over the central arctic is - what might be, clouds and fog permitting. In 2017 and 2018 the melting season did become to some extent a nothingburger, despite many predictions of sea ice Armageddon. Instead, it was very slow start to the freeze season, in line with some models' predictions, that was more significant.

We will see if the early signs of a new weather pattern picked up by Frivousz21 happens, or does not. Meanwhile JAXA sea ice extent has gone from lowest to third lowest in short order.
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Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #796 on: May 13, 2019, 10:36:45 AM »
One month of Kara Sea. A tale of Atlantic waters?

13.04. to 13.05. via Nasa Worldview

(Click GIF to animate)
Kara and Laptev are indeed interesting wrt to the origin of waters, Kara is usually Atlantic mixed with melt water from Ob and Yenisei but Laptev likely has a Pacific component to it (also Lena river). ESS is almost fully Pacific/Arctic (no huge rivers) , Chukchi less Arctic. Barents is  about fully Atlantic by now.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 10:47:38 AM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

johnm33

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #797 on: May 13, 2019, 11:32:52 AM »
"What stops the whole thing from continuing to rotate around to Fram Strait and exiting?"
The sheer mass of ice gathered around the pole used to be the answer. To move that south it has to be accelerated by about 22kph per deg. There's much less there and for the whole winter/freeze there's been a steady rotation pushing the densest ice across from the NSI towards anywhere between Fram and Axel Heiberg is., beneath it there's been a freshwater current which has sealed the cracks as it moved and reduced compaction,thus it hasn't had the integrity to close the Nares exit without which there can be no build up of mass around the pole. With enough integrity the 'polar mass' would rotate carrying the dense ice past the exits of Fram/Nares to either crush against the CAA or cruise around the arctic for another year or so, very little evidence of that this year.
New answer, not much. Welcome, did you bring your own popcorn?

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #798 on: May 13, 2019, 11:47:24 AM »
Although we've had mainly huge positive temperature anomalies over the Arctic for some time now, temperatures have generally remained below zero in the central basin. That looks like it will change over the coming week, with sustained temperatures above freezing in the Beaufort and Chukchi, spreading to the ESS and Laptev. Hudson will also be above freezing, so melting should start to pick up there. This is for Wednesday, so it should be fairly reliable:


Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #799 on: May 13, 2019, 12:00:11 PM »
Nice of them to put a darker blue stripe at -4°C or thereabouts to signal the freezing temperature of very salty water. And how much will the waves effect and disturb the formation of ice? => https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.0.html
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 02:15:58 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.