I am no expert, but the last years have taught me that for every individual season weather is the allimportant thing despite the long term warming trend of the globe. What is the worst possibble combination for ice (the way I understand it)? Persistent low pressure and cloudy skies during winter to keep the Arctic warm; then high pressure/sunny skies during peak insolation (May,June,July), then big storms (low pressure systems) in August/September.
So far, we have had plenty of sunshine (see chart for past 30 days of sea level pressure), and this , coupled with the fairly new trend (past 2 years) of Pacification leading to the early opening of the Bering is probably weakening the ice very much. We probably won't see it in the extent numners tomorrow, or next week, but given the forecast for the rest of the month (described above by others), we could see serious damage, come June.