The 2019 melting season

[gerontocrat]

Willie Soon and Lindzen, both deniers, have been wildly wrong about the effects of tropical clouds and the planetary energy balance. There have been many recent papers on clouds in the tropics and subtropics that debunked their theories.

Trust no-one - I was fooled because their letter was in the Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, USA. Bummer

[jai mitchell]

Thankfully, there is a separate thread for albedo discussion!

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1749.msg199578#msg199578

Rich wrote:

The author points out the loss of albedo due to sea ice only as being 25% of the equivalent of CO2 emissions.

My 'take home' from this is that, within the Arctic, CO2 is going up and albedo is going down, so ice loss will accelerate.

[Shared Humanity]

Thankfully, there is a separate thread for albedo discussion!

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1749.msg199578#msg199578

 

[Archimid]

Trust no-one - I was fooled because their letter was in the Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, USA. Bummer

I don't doubt that there is useful science in that paper, but there is deception there somewhere.

[magnamentis]

quite an outlook, only remaing cool spot is where the ice will be gone by the end of the meilting season anyways.

Bad for now and even worse for later this summer, at least most probably so.

[epiphyte]

By eyeballing, floe size in the Beaufort seems smaller than in 2016, which would be bad for the ice. But is there an official account of this?

Don't think so - but for the past few years some of us have been calling it out as 'granularity', and subjectively, yes, the total perimeter of the ice/water interface has been heading steadily toward fractal territory for quite some time now.

And yes, Pretty soon we'll be in Margaritaville at four in the morning on an off-night.

 

[pauldry600]

Theres a lot of dangerous stuff going on this year up there.

Will this be the year that shouts "hey world look at me now"

[JayW]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort. May 14 12Z  - May 17 0Z.
 (Requires a click)

Second attachment is the ECMWF forecast. The tight pressure gradient north of Alaska is progged to persist another 5 days or so, resulting in 20-30 knot easterly winds.

[uniquorn]

The whole Arctic pack is rotating clockwise now. The ice has transform faults all around the CAA and Greenland. Faults are continuous in ice on the north of Ellesmere island on today's Aqua image.

A bit of a 'hill start' but ice north of caa definitely joining the rotation now.
Worldview terra modis may10-16. https://go.nasa.gov/2EinfAu

[bbr2314]

Theres a lot of dangerous stuff going on this year up there.

Will this be the year that shouts "hey world look at me now"

The world won't notice or care about the Arctic sea ice any more than it has since 2012. But, they will notice and care about the worsening disasters that happen due to the accelerating collapse of the three-cell system. I would expect epic floods, heatwaves, cyclones, and blizzards as we enter the peak of summer and drift into autumn and early winter, with new extremes set in many locations (mostly hot, many wet, many dry, some cold, some snowy).

[FishOutofWater]

As the thick multiyear ice disappears the Arctic ocean is becoming more like a blended Margarita with every passing year. The big chunks in the Lincoln sea pulverize when they enter the Nares strait and the Beaufort rapidly clears up as the thin fine ice rapidly melts away while the larger pieces move rapidly away from the Mackenzie delta. Slowly but surely more heat is getting into Arctic waters to melt the bottom out when upwelling gets going under persistent high pressure situations like we're seeing now.

However, the thin ice also lets more heat escape to the Arctic atmosphere than the thick ice did. This may allow cooling of the fresh upper water layer under the Beaufort high. I don't know if the low heat anomaly in the Beaufort sea in the image below is real, but it could be and the accumulation of cold fresh water there would explain it. Note the high heat content of Atlantic waters entering the Arctic.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Theres a lot of dangerous stuff going on this year up there.

Will this be the year that shouts "hey world look at me now"

No chance. No one cares. No one gets it. The establishment has convinced everyone that problem is a meter of sea level rise over the course of a century and a 2 C temp increase. Those 2 issues are not that intuitively scary. The public at large has no comprehension of weather patterns and the part that the ice caps play in the zoomed out system. (A picture of santa drowning Titanic Jack style might help a little though.)

BUT, I do think this will be the year that people who do follow this situation (like on this forum) and who think that the BOE isn't happening til 2030 will shout, "OOPS".

Weak, thin ice detached from fast ice and slushing about around the entire arctic shore is kind of hard to ignore in mid may. 5 weeks til peak insolation, 10 weeks til less insolation, and 17 weeks more of melt. Hard to believe the ice is going to hold up.

My prediction for the season is Ice Island rather than BOE. Which will probably set up 2020 for BOE.  Could be "beautifully" coinciding with Trumps reelection. 

[GoSouthYoungins]

The short term forecast for the Mackenzie watershed is crazy. It has been warm and will continue to heat up for the next 4 days until the as far north as the delta is around 20C. (The models actually show it getting even worse later next week, but I'm going to ignore 5-10 day forecasts.) In the next week we will witness a epic blowout of the fast ice surrounding the Mackenzie Delta.

[magnamentis]

By eyeballing, floe size in the Beaufort seems smaller than in 2016, which would be bad for the ice. But is there an official account of this?

Don't think so - but for the past few years some of us have been calling it out as 'granularity', and subjectively, yes, the total perimeter of the ice/water interface has been heading steadily toward fractal territory for quite some time now.

And yes, Pretty soon we'll be in Margaritaville at four in the morning on an off-night.

this granularity sees to some "fake extent" IMO. while granular ice can keep a very large area covered, at one time in the future the wolf in sheep clothes shall show his true face.

no clue when, why (trigger event) or how, but for years i see some nasty kind of widely spread sudden death of the sea-ice and this time possibly without extremely strong and long cyclone or any of the other extreme events, simply because ice got so thin and dispersed.

[Carex]

Just a quick note on peripheral ice.  The Great Lakes Coastal Watch (NOAA) as of yesterday show no ice on the Great Lakes.  The last holdouts in Thunder, Black, and Nipigon Bays on the north shore of Lake Superior have faded away. (I couldn't see anything on MODIS on the 13th but it was partly cloudy).

[uniquorn]

Comparison of 2019 and 2016 using unihamburg amsr2-uhh, mar20-may16, pacific side.
Some concentration data has been sacrificed during processing so this should only be seen as a guide. Some days are missing data

[Neven]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort. May 14 12Z  - May 17 0Z.
 (Requires a click)

Houston, we have lift-off. 

[oren]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort. May 14 12Z  - May 17 0Z.
 (Requires a click)

Besides the impressive movement, some of the slush between the bigger floes is definitely melting and shrinking, unless my eyes are deceiving me.

[Shared Humanity]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort. May 14 12Z  - May 17 0Z.
 (Requires a click)

Besides the impressive movement, some of the slush between the bigger floes is definitely melting and shrinking, unless my eyes are deceiving me.

It was abnormally warm over Alaska for much of the winter. Going to melt quickly, I think.

[HelloMeteor]

Just something I like looking at to help visualize the loss.

I try to download the image daily. On days I miss, I just double the duration of the previous day's frame.

[magnamentis]

Just something I like looking at to help visualize the loss.

I try to download the image daily. On days I miss, I just double the duration of the previous day's frame.

try this:

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD

more choices and data are backwards available, further the resolution is way higher, more details shown to geht the impression that you're looking for.

[Sterks]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort. May 14 12Z  - May 17 0Z.
 (Requires a click)

Houston, we have lift-off. 

Or positive rate, as jet pilots say.
The Beaufort still has a week of climbing

[GoSouthYoungins]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort. May 14 12Z  - May 17 0Z.
 (Requires a click)

Besides the impressive movement, some of the slush between the bigger floes is definitely melting and shrinking, unless my eyes are deceiving me.

It was abnormally warm over Alaska for much of the winter. Going to melt quickly, I think.

The next week is going to be very warm, a bit windy, and reasonably sunny in the Beaufort...so the melt of the slushy ice is going to happen quite soon indeed.

The snow cover near Beaufort wont last the week, so late May sun could have the whole area really baking super hot by June.

[Aluminium]

May 13-17.

Ice is disintegrating in the Beaufort. A strong anticyclone and positive temperatures will be according to forecast. There is max temperature in the last image.

[gerontocrat]

There is max temperature in the last image.

A quibble...

I think I am right in saying that the GFS maximum (and minimum) temperature images are a bit deceiving, in that even if the forecast is 100% correct, there will not be a date/time when the image is a reality.

For the 5 day image shown, I think the image shows the maximum temperature for each element of the grid over the next 5 days. So one place might be at maximum today, another in 3 days time, and so on.  You can tell this from the image. Alaska cannot be at maximum temperature at the same time as Norway - if Alaska is basking in the late afternoon sun, Norway is freezing in the early early hours before dawn.

Thus the maximum image exaggerates the heat, the minimum image exaggerates the cold.

Mind you, it still looks like the Central Arctic sea ice is on the move and in serious grief..

[Aluminium]

I think I am right in saying that the GFS maximum (and minimum) temperature images are a bit deceiving, in that even if the forecast is 100% correct, there will not be a date/time when the image is a reality.

Of course. Almost every point in the Central Arctic will reach zero at least once in 5 days but not simultaneously. The average is a few degrees lower.

[be cause]

  This time last year I think it was Uniquorn who posted a gif entitled '233 days of anti-transpolar drift' .. the last 233 days has mostly been the opposite .
 All forecasts are for another week of ideal conditions for ice loss . Either the winds or the temperatures would be enough to deepen the threat of accelerated melt .. but both at this time of year .. I have not seen before.
  Never has the ice been more mobile .. every change in wind direction , even locally , causes a change in ice movement .. and a warm welcome awaits in Barnetz , Fram and Nare's for much or it .
  This is a very different year to last .. if the weather continues to suit export and melt we will be re-writing the records .. b.c.
 
 

[Trebuchet]

 The only bright spot is that the Siberian sector is still holding up. Looking at worldview, surface melt began here in 2012 around 11th of May. Maybe that extra 50cm of snow on the ground is making a difference.

[magnamentis]

The only bright spot is that the Siberian sector is still holding up. Looking at worldview, surface melt began here in 2012 around 11th of May. Maybe that extra 50cm of snow on the ground is making a difference.

what holds and what doesn't at this early stage is due to winds, air and water currents as well as (even mainly) weather patterns.

if the winds of example blow from the pacific to the atlantic side and the currents do the same and the weather is accordingly a specific region can even refreeze and/or compact.

the siberian sector was very early to open this year and now has mostly closed again due to above mentioned mechanisms.

it means not much because it will melt either way 99% and the snow cover only starts to play a role once it exists instead of zero snow. 50cm of snow produce similar temps and albedo like 1 meter of snow, only that it takes a bit longer to melt 1m but not even that, depending on weather, is necessarily the case.

i've seen 10cm of snow hold for weeks and i've seen 3 meters of snow go within the number of weeks.

[jdallen]

May 13-17.

Ice is disintegrating in the Beaufort. A strong anticyclone and positive temperatures will be according to forecast. There is max temperature in the last image.

... and an abrupt end to snow cover.

On the ice, melt will definitely lead to ponding, even if there is still slushy snow cover on top of it.

[Frivolousz21]

I just looked at the 12z European weather model and it is unbelievable or the Arctic Basin to end out May. 

if you go back in historical records probably even back to the 1850s or 60s which is 160 or 70 years.
You will be hard-pressed to find even one year showing it kind averaging syncing are anomalies sunny skies that the weather models are showing and it's not just a fantasy because we were well under way of the pattern change as I say this.



Starting with the classic banana high pressure with the cutoff vortex over Eastern Canada transitioning to a basin wide Mega high pressure in the long range that is nasty Sunshine for this time of year.

That leads to the possibility by June 1st.  We will see surface melting Albedo drops that we've never seen on record before.

Men as you all know because of that and heading towards Peak solar insolation in late June there will be a ramp-up and Ice loss we could be looking at something that blows 2007 out of the water.


I know 2012 had a lower minimum than 2007.

But 2007 had an UNPRECEDENTED ALMOST CENTRAL ARCTIC BASIN NUKE.

THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRESDEN FIREBOMBING THAT COMPLETELY DECIMATES THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH TIME

[jdallen]

I just looked at the 12z European weather model and it is unbelievable or the Arctic Basin to end out May. 
<snippage>

I don't have Friv's skill at hyperbole, but looking at GFS,  most of the snow cover on the Pacific side of the basin, on and off the ice, is modeled to disappear over the next 5 days.  It only gets worse at the end of the model run.

So, massive drop in albedo, creation of melt ponds over exactly the ice (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS) that will bear the brunt of the pounding by sunshine that's coming.

[El Cid]

I decided to do a comparison of SLP for the month of May. I looked at a couple of years and show here 2019 May (so far), 2018, 2016, 2007. Given the forecast, the extreme high pressure seems truly epic

[Neven]

Remember, there's a 2016 melting season thread, and reading all the comments around this time of year, is a good way to compare to what's happening now. Here, for instance, I posted the 6-day forecast, and though bad for the ice, especially given how open the Beaufort already was by that time, the current forecast is worse, especially the coming three days (pressure is much higher, for instance).

But given how it has been so far, I would venture to say that things look slightly less bad from day 4-6 (and beyond that looks even better for the ice). I just hope that we don't get to see this kind of set-up during June or July, because like friv says, a 2007-type event would obliterate the ice pack.

[sark]

I decided to do a comparison of SLP for the month of May. I looked at a couple of years and show here 2019 May (so far), 2018, 2016, 2007. Given the forecast, the extreme high pressure seems truly epic

You'd have to allow somehow for the stratosphere/troposphere coupling at final warming.  May won't look normal because the polar cell split in two.  Although it also did it in April, March, February, January, and November, and in 2017, 2016, 2014, etc etc.

It's more split than not at this point.  This should not be happening in the second half of May

[Neven]

It's only when you combine both SLP (sea level pressure average) and SAT (surface air temperature anomaly), that you see how exceptional May has been so far. 2010 and 2016 come close, 2017 was even worse SLP-wise (temps were much lower), but 2019 takes the cake.

[Neven]

I don't have Friv's skill at hyperbole, but looking at GFS,  most of the snow cover on the Pacific side of the basin, on and off the ice, is modeled to disappear over the next 5 days.  It only gets worse at the end of the model run.

So, 2019 is leading when it comes to the SAT/SLP combo, compared to 2010 and 2016, but it's behind when it comes to snow. For now. If the 2019 trend line manages to go as low as those other two years in weeks to come, things will start to look bleak (even though the ground won't).

Here's a close-up from the NOAA/NESDIS multisensor snow cover graph:

[bbr2314]

I don't have Friv's skill at hyperbole, but looking at GFS,  most of the snow cover on the Pacific side of the basin, on and off the ice, is modeled to disappear over the next 5 days.  It only gets worse at the end of the model run.

So, 2019 is leading when it comes to the SAT/SLP combo, compared to 2010 and 2016, but it's behind when it comes to snow. For now. If the 2019 trend line manages to go as low as those other two years in weeks to come, things will start to look bleak (even though the ground won't).

Here's a close-up from the NOAA/NESDIS multisensor snow cover graph:

I would be curious as to what % of this year's coverage is functionally useless for maintaining Arctic cold. There is a LOT of snow remaining and still falling over high mountains south of 50N (Rockies, Hinalayas, Alps). I think this may actually be partially to blame for the worsening conditions in the far north as the anomalous snow cover encourages -500MB anomalies down south, affecting all the oceanic heat up north.

LR forecasts have northern Russia melting out entirely soon, Canada will follow as well, so I could see our current arrangement worsening further as we head into June.

[meddoc]

Already, a lot of blue in the Beaufort, Kara, ESS on arctic explorer.
I'd say- maybe only due to the clearer Skies, thanks to HP- the Beaufort looks like Toast.
If that fragmented Slush melts out completely before Solstice, it's gonna be a Scorcher for the whole Pack.

[gerontocrat]

OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.

18th May:-
In North America both SCE - Snow Cover Extent and SWE - Snow Water Equivalent ( = mass) are just under +1 SD, i.e. a tad above average.
In Eurasia,  both SCE - Snow Cover Extent and SWE - Snow Water Equivalent ( = mass) are above +1 SD, i.e. considerably above average.

It will quickly disappear as is normal.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

[Jim Hunt]

Already, a lot of blue in the Beaufort

I assume you are referring to open water? However melt ponds are starting to become visible in the Beaufort Sea as well:

https://go.nasa.gov/2Ej6gxQ

[JayW]

 60s hour loop of the Kara Sea. May 16, 22Z - May 19, 9Z.  The winds appear to be shifting in the most recent frames, likely leading to less sea ice loss in the coming days for this area, just the slush getting moved around.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i02&x=13555.5&y=12655.5556640625

Second attachment is Kara Sea ice area.

[JayW]

I'd wager that it rained in that yellow area near the center.

[jdallen]

OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.
<snipage>
It will quickly disappear as is normal.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Yes, I completely understand that.  I'm not trying to suggest snow cover overall is somehow significant.

It's *where* its being lost, combined with the ice conditions and up-coming weather conditions that concerns me.

It's what this specific region being hammered now portends for the next two months.

(Image credit - Climate Reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp)

[uniquorn]

ascat and uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh (both heavy contrast) overlaid onto mercator 34m salinity. Ascat showing approximate ice age, amsr2 showing more fracture detail. Salinity somewhat lost under the other 2 layers but reddy brown is salltier than greeny yellow saltier than blue. sep24-may18.
Note the incoming weather event from the pacific on day117(0427)
tricky to get the scaling and overlay to match up. The ice matches better than the lat/long lines

[Sterks]

OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.

Yeah, and the same happens with sea ice, and with the frost in my freezer if I unplug it.
Dumbest thing I read, your entire comment.

 Should we then close the thread and talk about football? Come on, ice is gonna melt, more or less who knows, who cares, hey its freaking normal in summer!!

How snow melts out in May and June, on continents and on ice, is relevant to what’s gonna happen to ice, be it causality or correlation, and I pay good attention to it.

[Viggy]

OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.

Yeah, and the same happens with sea ice, and with the frost in my freezer if I unplug it.
Dumbest thing I read, your entire comment.

 Should we then close the thread and talk about football? Come on, ice is gonna melt, more or less who knows, who cares, hey its freaking normal in summer!!

How snow melts out in May and June, on continents and on ice, is relevant to what’s gonna happen to ice, be it causality or correlation, and I pay good attention to it.

Calma there buddy! I think you are reading Gerontocrat's comment with some weird lenses on.

[sark]

This snow is melting comment and objection is an annual tradition.  I just kind hope something structurally changes in week 3 because currently we're in trouble for repeating it next year.

[GoSouthYoungins]

OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.

Yeah, and the same happens with sea ice, and with the frost in my freezer if I unplug it.
Dumbest thing I read, your entire comment.

 Should we then close the thread and talk about football? Come on, ice is gonna melt, more or less who knows, who cares, hey its freaking normal in summer!!

How snow melts out in May and June, on continents and on ice, is relevant to what’s gonna happen to ice, be it causality or correlation, and I pay good attention to it.

Calma there buddy! I think you are reading Gerontocrat's comment with some weird lenses on.

If everyone could kindly STFU. The Arctic Sea Ice Melting Season 2019 is actually really interesting. Off-topic or irrelevant comments and gripes can be quite easily ignored.


There are currently some fires in northern alberta and maybe the northwestern territories. The smoke is headed towards the caa currently, although it is difficult to tell where it will go in the coming days. If it does end up settling on ice or thick snow, it could really supercharge melt.

A huge amount of open water has opened up in the northern part of baffin. HUGE. Thus the ice that is there is much further south than normal, which pretty much guarantees that baffin melt will stay considerably ahead of schedule.

Most interestingly, the heatwave in the Mackenzie river basin is INTENSE. Starting tomorrow temps are supposed to reach 15C, and then things really start to heat up for the next few days. The permafrost in the area could have a really really bad year.

[Aluminium]

May 15-19.