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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1000 on: May 23, 2019, 08:00:19 PM »

I might be inclined the agree with your you. Given that there is something stubborn about that patch, I'm going to guess 1-2 weeks.

stubborn LOL, exactly my thought recently, starting 2-3 days ago, after the open water is there
for weeks and almost all snow an ice on and inland is gone.

let's see but it's very brownish and dark on that surface all depends on thickness/compaction a few hundred meters out.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1001 on: May 23, 2019, 08:10:48 PM »
Hi Pragma .. Worldview goes back to 2000 in easily accessible archives .. only this year have I got internet sufficient to take advantage but haven't explored that far back yet .
  re the ice of Barrow .. in 2016 @ now Beaufort cooled for several weeks .. enough for ice melt to cease for weeks on the Pacific side .. causing the stall that can be seen in extent and area that year . This year there is no hint of similar happening . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1002 on: May 23, 2019, 09:01:32 PM »
Pragma here is a good visual last decade has been significantly different: https://www.facebook.com/YearsOfLiving/videos/1142262632527460/

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1003 on: May 23, 2019, 10:00:06 PM »
This animation of weekly ice age distribution maps from Feb 5th to May 6th shows how much of the MYI has been pushed towards the Atlantic exit, while some of the oldest ice is sucked off by Nares, and the 'Arm' in the Beaufort doesn't look all that strong this year:

The rapid destruction of the multi-year ice is very bad. This may suggest that the last ice in the Arctic will melt near the North pole rather than the Northern shores of Canada and Greenland.

This will be a disaster for polar bears. They will not be able to escape in Canada and Greenland, and all will drown near the North pole.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1004 on: May 23, 2019, 10:06:57 PM »
This will be a disaster for polar bears. They will not be able to escape in Canada and Greenland, and all will drown near the North pole.

 :D

That's not going to happen. But there is no way that Arctic sea ice loss will be good for polar bears.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1005 on: May 23, 2019, 10:10:57 PM »
This will be a disaster for polar bears. They will not be able to escape in Canada and Greenland, and all will drown near the North pole.

 :D

That's not going to happen. But there is no way that Arctic sea ice loss will be good for polar bears.

Why do you think this is unlikely? You wrote last year how the Northern shores of Greenland were cleared of ice at the end of August. It is obvious that there is a high probability that polar bears will fall into the ice trap in the Central Arctic and die.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1006 on: May 23, 2019, 10:19:41 PM »
b.c. - That's an excellent resource. It's going to take me a while to learn how to drive it, but the info is all there. Thank you.

Sarat - I think one could watch that video 50 times and not get all the information from it. It tells so much of the history of the Arctic ice in one compact video.

From all of this I see that the ice is extremely fluid and Fram export has been a regular feature "forever". I don't see anything particularly dramatic but more just a slow, progressive decline. Any drama is just the stochastic nature of the weather and cyclical influences such as the PDO and AMOC laid over top.

That said, whereas the GAC of 2012 produced drama and much speculation, it was simply an anomaly, albeit a big one. Soon, a much smaller "alignment of the stars" will produce the same results.

A cursory glance at ASIE or ASIC is useful, but can be misleading. The last thin layer will vanish like morning frost in sunlight and some will proclaim a "collapse" has occurred.

BTW, the last week of the Keeling Curve CO2 concentration put us solidly above 415 ppm for the peak of this cycle. This is well over a 3 ppm jump, whereas previous annual increases were in the range of 2.5 ppm, or less.

The inevitability of it all saddens me.

Correction: CO2 Concentration is now 415 ppm, not 215 ppm.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 10:27:38 PM by Pragma »

FrostKing70

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1007 on: May 23, 2019, 10:30:57 PM »
Polar bears can swim a loooonnnnnggggg way.....

https://news.mongabay.com/2012/05/just-how-far-can-a-polar-bear-swim/

"Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are capable of swimming incredible distances, according to a new study published in Zoology, which recorded polar bears regularly swimming over 30 miles (48 kilometers) and, in one case, as far as 220 miles (354 kilometers). The researchers believe the ability of polar bears to tackle such long-distance swims may help them survive as seasonal sea ice vanishes due to climate change."

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1008 on: May 23, 2019, 10:41:18 PM »
Polar bears can swim a loooonnnnnggggg way.....

https://news.mongabay.com/2012/05/just-how-far-can-a-polar-bear-swim/

"Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are capable of swimming incredible distances, according to a new study published in Zoology, which recorded polar bears regularly swimming over 30 miles (48 kilometers) and, in one case, as far as 220 miles (354 kilometers). The researchers believe the ability of polar bears to tackle such long-distance swims may help them survive as seasonal sea ice vanishes due to climate change."

This is a rare case for very strong bears. In addition, the nearest land to the North pole is much further - about 700 km.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaffeklubben_Island
Quote
Kaffeklubben Island or Coffee Club Island (Danish: Kaffeklubben Ø; Greenlandic: Inuit Qeqertaat) is a small island lying off the northern tip of Greenland. It contains the northernmost point of land on Earth. Kaffeklubben Island is at 83°39′45″N 30°36′50″W and is 713.5 kilometres (443.3 mi) from the geographic North Pole.

The coming massacre will be one more comparable to the destruction of mammoths, bison and wandering pigeons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinct_in_the_wild

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1009 on: May 23, 2019, 10:51:00 PM »
The coming massacre will be one more comparable to the destruction of mammoths, bison and wandering pigeons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinct_in_the_wild

Yes, but not in one year, and not in the way you're describing.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1010 on: May 23, 2019, 10:55:09 PM »
Please take the polar bear discussion to the appropriate thread, maybe this one https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.0.html

Despite the drift, the atlantic side north of FJL/Svalbard is also not looking good.
edit: worldview aquaterra modis, may21-23 https://go.nasa.gov/2M7P0lt
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 11:28:12 PM by uniquorn »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1011 on: May 23, 2019, 11:56:25 PM »
This will be a disaster for polar bears. They will not be able to escape in Canada and Greenland, and all will drown near the North pole.

 :D

That's not going to happen. But there is no way that Arctic sea ice loss will be good for polar bears.

Why do you think this is unlikely? You wrote last year how the Northern shores of Greenland were cleared of ice at the end of August. It is obvious that there is a high probability that polar bears will fall into the ice trap in the Central Arctic and die.

google how far and how long polar bears can and do swim, even when they don't necessarily have to, you'll be surprised and know why this won't happen the way you describe.

neven's take on this is as spot on as it can get. bad for the bears but they won't drown in numbers.

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1012 on: May 24, 2019, 01:14:49 AM »
This river delta in the general area of Prudhoe Bay on the north slope of Alaska appears to have started spilling water into the ice of the last couple days.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1013 on: May 24, 2019, 01:32:41 AM »
For those interested in what happened in the Beaufort, back in 2016 (so as to compare to this year's siutation), I wrote about it extensively on the ASIB. Here's a blog post from May 21st, with links to previous blog posts in the first paragraph.

The maps look very similar, so much so that one would be tempted to think there is something causing the ice to stay glued to the coast, all the way up to Utqiaġvik. But there's no "Chukchi polynya" now, with open water all the way to the Pacific and far into the Chukchi, meaning there is less ice to be blown back towards the coast, should the winds turn.

And the winds are another similarity. Both the weather forecast back then and the one this year show a change in the set-up that caused the early Beaufort opening, around the same time. However, this year there may be a return to that set-up next week.

So, wondering if there will be open water all along the Alaskan-Canadian coast before July this year...

My guess there are two factors behind this 'ice bridge'.  First there seems to be more fast ice on the coast - presumably the sea bed is shallow and/or perhaps currents favour colder water below the ice.  Second I suspect the beaufort gyre and shape of the coast line combine.  Ice I think tends to move away from the coast towards Chukchi and towards CAA, but towards the coast near this ice bridge.  As soon as temps warm enough that ice can't form these two areas become ice free as ice moves away from the coast, but the ice bridge area needs temps to warm enough that substantial ice in the Beaufort at large is melted and there is no longer enough ice to move towards the coast.



(using paint so hard to get a nice curve to better illustrate the ice flow)
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1014 on: May 24, 2019, 03:44:13 AM »
google how far and how long polar bears can and do swim, even when they don't necessarily have to, you'll be surprised and know why this won't happen the way you describe.

neven's take on this is as spot on as it can get. bad for the bears but they won't drown in numbers.

Answered in the neighbors topic
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg200803.html#new

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1015 on: May 24, 2019, 03:55:27 AM »
The ECMWF(as well as GFS is showing building heat in northern Eurasia, with the Lena catchment in for a warm blast, all lowland snow south of the Laptev is projected to be gone by the end of the forecast period. (And the forecast ends with temps above 20C on the Barents Sea coast as yet another trough ushers mid-latitude heat toward the pole, eek)

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1016 on: May 24, 2019, 05:25:55 AM »
The Laptev bite has re-opened over the past 3 days, about 30-40km wide in this Worldview image(23may), and the ice front being pushed away is mush that froze a couple of weeks ago, and will soon melt  in time for peak insolation. Warm southerlies are forecast starting in a day or so, at first directed at the intervening snow, and progressively warming as it melts out- I've attached the Windy/ECMWF forecast for tuesday

You can follow the line separating fast ice and mobile pack all the way east along the ESS coast. The ice in the western ESS looks  better, but from the central ESS coast to Wrangel Island and beyond the ice is just ghastly, a loose pack/slurry of widely separated small  floes interspersed with mush(thelargest are about 25km across, and roundish rather than angular in shape, which puts a question mark over their strength and integrity)

Edit: removed a misplaced bracket and duplicated particle.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 06:23:06 AM by subgeometer »

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1017 on: May 24, 2019, 05:48:23 AM »
That area extending northward from the New Siberian Islands looks bad on the AMSR2 image. I scaled that part up and tried to sharpen it a bit. The whole area looks like it has a fractal pattern of cracks.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1018 on: May 24, 2019, 06:18:06 AM »
ASCAT arctic sea ice comparison 2012, 2016, 2018 and 2019 Jan1–May22
click zoom icon to expand
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 06:24:37 AM by Ice Shieldz »

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1019 on: May 24, 2019, 06:51:51 AM »
neven's take on this is as spot on as it can get. bad for the bears but they won't drown in numbers.

Well, no, they won't "all" drown, but *more* are and even more *will* as there is less and less ice. A hungry, skinny bear can't swim as far as a well-fed bear. And, "in numbers" is relative. As a species crashes further and further, smaller and smaller numbers come to equal "in numbers." (E.g., there are an estimated 80k koalas in the wild. Seems like a lot of koalas, eh? No, They are considered functionally extinct.) And we have a lot more warming to go.


Grolar/Prozzly Bears might be the only way they survive.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1020 on: May 24, 2019, 07:14:59 AM »
May 19-23.

Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1021 on: May 24, 2019, 07:54:38 AM »

Not meaning to be overly pedantic, just think it's a distinction worth making.

it's not overly pedantic, on the contrary, it's obvious and self-evident and this is the probable reason why it's not talked about that much.

But, that wasn't my point.

the echo to your repeated mention

Twice? LOL...

of this is not because we don't believe you, but because i for one think, yeah, sure, has been clear from day one and nobody ever said otherwise. so we fully agree

Well, of course you do! But that also was not my point...

and sometimes it's worth to remember that one fact does often not exclude another. mentioning one reason does not mean it's the only reason etc. etc.

Also not a point I had made. But thanks for the pat on the head! ;-)

hence all good you're 100% correct with your assessment.

Generally, yes. But also not my point.

My point:

When I first arrived at the SIB many years ago, the language was pretty dense, the references to places, locations, effects, resources a mess for me. I had no problem understanding the ice dynamics in and of themselves because, well, I'm neither uneducated nor of low intelligence. In fact, I posted somewhat regularly and didn't feel out of place doing so. However, the jargon, the info, the labels... tough. (Now? Ten years and little participation since 2012/13 or so has left me well behind. I won't be posting much bc you all can do better than I.)

So, if, as you say, the posters here know it all, so need not point out the obvious, then how does such a statement as this slip through?

Quote
"being in better shape,"

It's a misleading description of conditions. Thus, was the poster being a bit too colloquial/relaxed, or had the poster not realized the dynamics at play? As you should understand from my post, I assumed the latter. But, I also explained the dynamics. Why? For you? For Neven? For Hunt?

Of course not. For:
Quote
this is an important dynamic that I think a little more clarity in language will help make clear for those less versed or for newbies so they understand the ice dynamics.

Because I remember what it was like in the beginning for me and, as a teacher, I try to notice when I am stating things that are assumptions for me, but not for my audience.

And that was why I posted, not to inform you of ice dynamics, but to remind long-time posters that what is background to you is likely mysterious to new users.

Better shape? Not really. Bad news. Newbies might have missed this.

Cheers

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1022 on: May 24, 2019, 07:54:55 AM »
I love the gifs Aluminum. Thank you.

The last couple of days added haven't been especially noteworthy. The blue water around the Siberian Islands / Laptev have expanded a fair amount.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1023 on: May 24, 2019, 07:55:36 AM »
May 19-23.
The Beaufort has crashed and now equals terrible 2016. The Laptev opened again after the previous gap refroze. The Greenland Sea is replenished with newly exported ice.
AMSR2 area graphs show it all clearly.

sark

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1024 on: May 24, 2019, 09:33:51 AM »
When has the 500mb anomaly chart EVER looked so splotchy for so long?  All I see is retrograde motion, pro-rotating cells of cold forced off the ice.  This hasn't yet been spinning up storms in the Arctic.  Should we expect that next?
I am not a scientist

wallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1025 on: May 24, 2019, 10:32:33 AM »
There is a bit of a cold blob in the centre of the far north of North America.
It looks like this will warm up by middle to late next week.

It gives me a little more confidence in the prediction that belongs to me that the North-West Passage will open this year.

NW passage aside, Given the extensive cracking that has occurred across the CAA and above Greenland already this season. What possible chance of that passage opening later on. If I recall there was an open passage between Fram strait and Naire Strait, late last year.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1026 on: May 24, 2019, 10:46:15 AM »
I hope it is a comic farcast .. gfs ends at 4'c on the north shores of Greenland and Ellesmere Island .. b.c.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 11:52:03 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1027 on: May 24, 2019, 11:14:39 AM »
Given the current weather and temperature forecasts, my gut feeling says we're in for some big drops in the coming week. Whatever improvement there was in the forecast, it's now reverting back to the set-up we've seen these past weeks, where the ice will continue to be transported westwards along the Alaskan coast, and then into the CAB. The open water in Laptev will probably start to expand again, and some more action is to be expected in Kara. Export towards the Atlantic is slow, but steady, and the Atlantic hasn't even gone full Cookie Monster yet. Hudson is about to start falling off a cliff.

This stuff is now moving into June...
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1028 on: May 24, 2019, 11:55:51 AM »
It gives me a little more confidence in the prediction that belongs to me that the North-West Passage will open this year.

See the 2019 section of the Northwest Passage thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg192845.html#msg192845

Quote
If I recall there was an open passage between Fram Strait and Nares Strait, late last year.

Not far off:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1029 on: May 24, 2019, 12:06:25 PM »
Better shape? Not really. Bad news. Newbies might have missed this.

Take a close look at Ice Shieldz' ASCAT video above, and this explanatory still from A-Team:



In case it's not readily apparent, "new ice" is dark, "old ice" is light.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1030 on: May 24, 2019, 12:22:47 PM »
Melt ponds are making an appearance on the Siberian side:

https://go.nasa.gov/2Jy4GfG
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1031 on: May 24, 2019, 12:31:12 PM »
Meanwhile over on the Mackenzie Delta: https://go.nasa.gov/2M7eVcU

Try clicking through to Worldview and taking a look at the same areas in 2016 and 2012
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1032 on: May 24, 2019, 12:35:51 PM »
Hi Jim .. are you sure re the melt ponds ? I doubt this ice is thick enough . I suggest the ice has melted below the surface snow and it is sea water coming through to the surface we are seeing . b.c.
 Update .. poof .. and it was gone ! Today's Worldview shows what was blue ice yesterday is blue ocean today . Everything is changing ..

ps .. ref post 1030 ..
« Last Edit: May 24, 2019, 12:56:33 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1033 on: May 24, 2019, 12:38:04 PM »
How do we know how old certain sections of ice are? Jim's color map comparison of 2019 vs 2012 has all kinds of colors sprinkled throughout, telling us exactly when small sections....sq- k it looks like...were created. Seems impossibly odd to be able to identify this giant floating chunk as 3 years old, another iceberg is 2 years old...etc. Do they go around tagging hundreds of floating ice masses up there?

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1034 on: May 24, 2019, 12:38:27 PM »
7 day Melt pond fraction forecast from ESRL, Physical science division.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1035 on: May 24, 2019, 01:12:31 PM »
Hi Jim .. are you sure re the melt ponds ?

I'm sure about the Mackenzie Delta fast ice. I'm willing to debate the Siberian slush. I'll go and see if Landsat/Sentinel have snapped the area recently.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1036 on: May 24, 2019, 01:18:31 PM »
How do we know how old certain sections of ice are?

Here's the link again: https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0611

Quote
The method used to estimate sea ice age involves Lagrangian tracking of sea ice from week-to-week using gridded ice motion vectors (Maslanik et al. 2011; Tschudi et al. 2019). Starting in late 1978, ice age can be estimated by treating each grid cell that contains ice as a discrete, independent Lagrangian parcel and tracking the parcels at weekly time steps as they are advected by the weekly ice motions. The process can be viewed as a set of stacked planes overlying the grid used, with each plane corresponding to an age category. Parcels move around on their respective planes, independent of parcels of other age categories, which in turn lie in their own planes. To produce maps of ice age, the set of parcels for each weekly time increment is rasterized by assigning parcels to the 12.5 km x 12.5 km grid cell within which each parcel's position lies. In cases where parcels of different ages fall within a single grid cell, the age of the grid cell is assigned to the oldest parcel (Maslanik et al. 2011; Tschudi et al. 2019). Physically, this approach assumes that younger ice deforms more easily than older ice, and as such older ice will cover a greater fraction of the area within the grid cell. For example, if two parcels, one that represents first-year ice and one that represents third-year ice, both fall within the domain of a single grid cell, then the age of that cell will be assigned as third-year ice.

If the ice concentration of a grid cell remains at or above 15 percent throughout the melt season, then that parcel is assumed to have survived the summer minimum sea ice extent (typically reached in September), and the parcel's age is incremented by one year. The age of the ice is categorized as first-year ice (0-1 years old), second-year ice (1-2 years old), and so forth based on how many summer melt seasons the ice parcel survives (Tschudi et al. 2010). Note that grid cells with less than 15 percent sea ice concentration are treated as open water, even though the cells could still contain some ice.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1037 on: May 24, 2019, 06:50:33 PM »
Maybe I'm just overreacting....but I'm just in shock at how the ice is looking right now. There's far more I need to discern and research, but that ice is just not looking 'good' at all. Sorry I don't have a more analytical post, but hmmm....
pls!

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1038 on: May 24, 2019, 10:03:50 PM »
My point:

When I first arrived at the SIB many years ago, the language was pretty dense, the references to places, locations, effects, resources a mess for me.

...

Because I remember what it was like in the beginning for me and, as a teacher, I try to notice when I am stating things that are assumptions for me, but not for my audience.

And that was why I posted, not to inform you of ice dynamics, but to remind long-time posters that what is background to you is likely mysterious to new users.


Ref. Reply # 1021

I think this is an excellent point that could be missed by people deep into it. After a hiatus, I have to refresh everything in spite of what I learned. (where is that damned "garlic press"?). ;-)

The very issue of ice to the south of Svalbard  and Novaya Zemlya tripped me up until I realized the "shadows", indicating ice floe direction. It's all about ice dynamics and looking at various details with respect to overall context. The context is essential.

As I mentioned before, ASIE is of limited value without ASIC and if strong winds affect the edges, ASIE can change drastically in a day, with little or no actual change in the situation except for albedo.

This is why the good people here dig deeper for a better understanding, but the basics are needed to understand the nuances and implications. I'm slowly getting there.

I have probably pointed out several "obvious" things just in this post that are far from obvious to an occasional reader.

Cheers

Sarat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1039 on: May 25, 2019, 12:48:28 AM »
Maybe I'm just overreacting....but I'm just in shock at how the ice is looking right now. There's far more I need to discern and research, but that ice is just not looking 'good' at all. Sorry I don't have a more analytical post, but hmmm....

Yeah, I agree that animation from IceShieldz above looked just like 2012 except with much lower Alaskan ice extent for the date:

Source: Rick Thoman (@AlaskaWx) Twitter

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1040 on: May 25, 2019, 10:19:58 AM »
Sarat - it's hard to gauge thickness from ASCAT. Someone like Jim probably has a more trained eye that can better interpret the shades of grey, which are not well-delineated for the eye to discern. Clouds can also get in the way, and there seems to be a slightly different grey value mapping with the data back in 2012?

For this following gif, i'm inclined to put more credence in the Navy's thickness model - as they have a high stake in knowing how thick the ice is to hide submarines and more easily pop through the thinner ice. But i'm sure there are others here that have a better sense of model accuracy. However, my understanding from A-Team and others is that there's a dearth of real-world measurements to validate the accuracy of these models.  – May require click to animate
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 10:25:26 AM by Ice Shieldz »

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1041 on: May 25, 2019, 10:32:04 AM »
Ok, so as Frivolousz21 is not around, I have to replace him:

The latest ECMWF forecast is absolutely mindboggling (see T+6 chart). I don't think I have ever seen anything like this in my life - you have to go back to the Holocene Optimum to find anything resembling it. The Pacific side and the Pole is getting bombarded 24/7 as long as the eye can see. The Beaufort is going to evaporate like it's never been there. The Chukchi is already extremely weak, and this going to hit it like a torpedo and it's going to sink like the Titanic.
Full sunshine during peak insolation is the recipe for TOTAL COLLAPSE. This year we are going to see the North Pole wide open! Mark my words, THIS IS EPIC.

 :) :) :)

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1042 on: May 25, 2019, 10:33:02 AM »
The current GFS run on climate reanalyser show absolutely insane temperatures extending across northern Eurasia from about 4 days out, and then get worse and worse for the remainder off the run, ending up with solid 20C anomalies along the coast. Something to watch as it comes closer.

If these kind of forecasts bear out and continue there will be absolutely stupendous fires, possibly dwarfing anything seen before. There are already large areas of smoke visible in Canada west of Great Slave Lake

I've attached there GFS temp anomaly 105 hrs out

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1043 on: May 25, 2019, 10:38:14 AM »
Ok, so as Frivolousz21 is not around, I have to replace him:

I'll give you a 5/10 for the effort, but friv cannot be replaced so easily.  ;D

edit: I've just seen the ECMWF forecast and it looks pretty terrible indeed. Anything above 1030 hPa around this time of year, is a disaster for the ice. I'll post the latest forecast this evening.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1044 on: May 25, 2019, 10:47:55 AM »
I don't expect a collapse at this point. There is positive snow anomalies in Siberia and melting goes slower than 2012

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1045 on: May 25, 2019, 11:09:26 AM »
The light blue on that map is exactly where all the heat will be in the coming week:
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Killian

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1046 on: May 25, 2019, 11:20:10 AM »
My point...

as a teacher, I try to notice when I am stating things that are assumptions for me, but not for my audience.

And that was why I posted, not to inform you of ice dynamics, but to remind long-time posters that what is background to you is likely mysterious to new users.

Ref. Reply # 1021

I think this is an excellent point that could be missed by people deep into it. After a hiatus, I have to refresh everything in spite of what I learned.

...with respect to overall context. The context is essential.

..This is why the good people here dig deeper for a better understanding, but the basics are needed to understand the nuances and implications...

I have probably pointed out several "obvious" things just in this post that are far from obvious to an occasional reader.

I don't want to make a "thing" of this, as the casual reader, aka the student, has a responsibility to self-educate, also, but I appreciate someone else sees the point. The world is, literally, falling apart. This is not the biggest thing on anyone's agenda, but a little awareness and patience and care with phrasing can be a real help to others. We all need to "get there" at some point, or none of us will, so...

Thanks for commenting.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1047 on: May 25, 2019, 11:23:33 AM »
Ok, so as Frivolousz21 is not around, I have to replace him:

Thanks for delivering the superlatives so well.

It has to be said though, Frivolousz21 is not yet beaten in how to paint a dystopian picture.

meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1048 on: May 25, 2019, 12:54:48 PM »
arctic.io Arctic Explorer has been off for a week now.
No Wonder, more & more People must be checking out the Reality- as has the number of new members started to grow.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1049 on: May 25, 2019, 01:24:55 PM »
While the current forecast indeed looks really bad with a high amount of sunshine and temps climbing above zero, there might be a chance that we get a high pressure similar to what happened back in 2014. If so, the damage should be reduced.