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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1200 on: May 27, 2019, 06:44:27 PM »

For the next week the Central Arctic is looking pretty dry, that might mean loads of sunshine, helping to transform Albedo Warming Potential into Albedo Warming Actuality.

Two snapshots of the ECMWF low cloud forecast for the Arctic. In the first few days it suggests  clear areas over southern and northern Beaufort moving slowly westwards, The central CAB retains a lot of low cloud (probably stratus). Clear areas also near Svalbard FJL 

Later over the weekend. Low cloud returns to the Beaufort and clear slots moving up north of Greenland. Central CAB though still cloudy.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1201 on: May 27, 2019, 07:11:13 PM »
Clearer sky over possible melt pond area at roughly 85.3N 96.5E northern laptev/cab. Shown here using worldview terra modis cr367 and unihamburg amsr2uhh, may 25-27
Do you think these are really melt ponds?
I think it is a possible melt pond area :) It would appear to have been building up since may14. It moves with the ice unlike the passing weather events, clearly visible on your 10MB false colour animation upthread, and is coroborated by a similar shaped 'anomaly' on terra modis, band 3,6,7. I think it likely it is due to a change in the ice in that area.
We are fortunate to have a Sentinel1 image from polarview of the area from this morning. Perhaps someone with sentinel1 analysis skills can enlighten us further.
unihamburg amsr2uhh, may12-26
polarview, sentinel1 may27 (half size)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1202 on: May 27, 2019, 07:20:16 PM »
Taken together, personally I'm on the fence but leaning towards real. How unusual or not would it be to have such extensive melt ponding so far into the pack at this time of year?

As luck would have it I've been looking at melt ponds a lot lately:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/melt-pond-may-2019/

There was undoubtedly more surface melt off Siberia in 2012 at this time of year, but I have yet to cross check "extensive melt ponding so far into the pack". I'll give that a go now.

P.S. There's lots of cloud around in 2012, but if you click on to May 27th and then July 4th on Worldview I think you'll agree the dark red area went pretty far into the pack.

« Last Edit: May 27, 2019, 07:52:17 PM by Jim Hunt »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1203 on: May 27, 2019, 07:28:13 PM »

For the next week the Central Arctic is looking pretty dry, that might mean loads of sunshine, helping to transform Albedo Warming Potential into Albedo Warming Actuality.

Two snapshots of the ECMWF low cloud forecast for the Arctic. In the first few days it suggests  clear areas over southern and northern Beaufort moving slowly westwards, The central CAB retains a lot of low cloud (probably stratus). Clear areas also near Svalbard FJL 

Later over the weekend. Low cloud returns to the Beaufort and clear slots moving up north of Greenland. Central CAB though still cloudy.
The above equals quite cloudy?
Add modest +ve temp anomalies.

= not a lot of melt in the next few days?
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1204 on: May 27, 2019, 09:10:15 PM »
As luck would have it I've been looking at melt ponds a lot lately:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/melt-pond-may-2019/
Very useful, thanks!

A comment on the 2012 comparison: Did 2012 hit a record low due to early-season melt ponds (etc) or was it primarily due to the big late-season storm (GAC). Obviously it's some combination of both, but my impression was the latter, given that the 2012 extent trajectory seemed average (for the decade) before the GAC hit. My personal opinion (100% conjecture): the pack is now so weak that early season priming is almost not needed. It's ready to crash given any major event similar to the 2012 cyclone, and maybe a major storm isn't even needed.

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1205 on: May 27, 2019, 09:22:21 PM »
Clearer sky over possible melt pond area at roughly 85.3N 96.5E northern laptev/cab. Shown here using worldview terra modis cr367 and unihamburg amsr2uhh, may 25-27
Do you think these are really melt ponds?

On the one hand, Terra 3-6-7 does detect liquid vs. frozen water (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/faq/worldview-snapshots-faq#modis-367). But on the other hand, the dark shapes look to me more like some kind of cloud, rather than ice topography. They also seem in places to overlap fractures, which doesn't make sense (but may be illusory) (att). They also don't show up on 7-2-1 (att).

If they are indeed melt ponds, they are very extensive (att).

They may not be melt ponds, but to my (admittedly limited) understanding, they very probably do indicate either wet ice or partially melted snow (e.g. the kind that has formed an irregular surface crust, which increases absorption and traps warmth beneath it, causing a (perhaps) saltier layer beneath it to melt from the inside out)

Clouds always show up white, or at least yellow, on the 3-6-7 image. The only time I ever see a darker orange or red which is not indicating some kind of surface absorption is in the shadow of  partial cloud cover in the immediate vicinity.

As to the shape and placement of the darker area - One might speculate on any number of complex scenarios, any one of which might be entirely plausible and completely wrong. Or, for that matter, utterly incredible, yet in fact correct.

That's what makes this whole subject so fascinating and frustrating; The laws of chemistry and physics apply, of course, but the nature of arctic ice is such that, even where it appears uniform, every square meter is the product of a unique summation of past local conditions.

Perhaps the darker swath is just an area that was preconditioned to melt before the rest, because the sun was shining on it through a gap in the cloud cover a week ago?

Perhaps the melting was enhanced in the vicinity of the fissures was due to the surface snow around them being swept into the water, leaving a bare ice surface with higher salinity and lower albedo?

Either is possible, and one might spend a year researching the question and not come up with a definitive answer, because the most significant factor may be one you don't know about.

One thing that does seem clear is that as the average thickness, age, and floe size decrease, and the mobility increases (as they have all been in recent years), the starting conditions become more complex, and the future harder to model with any confidence.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1206 on: May 27, 2019, 09:24:15 PM »
And here are the same images but, mainly in an attempt to remove cloud artifacts, smoothed by using for each pixel the 5-trailing-days' median value.

This is really cool! Thanks for that.

But what do the colours mean exactly? Could you add a legend?

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1207 on: May 27, 2019, 09:41:10 PM »
But what do the colours mean exactly? Could you add a legend?
Good point! Attached.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1208 on: May 27, 2019, 09:47:38 PM »
[And here are the same images but, mainly in an attempt to remove cloud artifacts, smoothed by using for each pixel the 5-trailing-days' median value.

that's great stuff, kudos, love it.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1209 on: May 27, 2019, 09:48:59 PM »
one might spend a year researching the question and not come up with a definitive answer
nevertheless it would be a year well spent :)

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1210 on: May 27, 2019, 09:50:59 PM »
that's great stuff, kudos, love it.
Most welcome. Happy to bring a little to share on this excellent board.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1211 on: May 27, 2019, 09:52:14 PM »
They may not be melt ponds......

either way you're assumption appear valid either way to me.

after all we talk water on the surface, whether it's from melting ice, melting snow or rain that gathered in throughs, does not make that much of a difference once the sun is out and even if it are not yet full-scale melt ponds that i dunno, that's where melt ponds will develop quite quickly IMHO

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1212 on: May 27, 2019, 09:58:26 PM »
And here are the same images but, mainly in an attempt to remove cloud artifacts, smoothed by using for each pixel the 5-trailing-days' median value.

Maybe you could experiment and create smaller animations. 10 MB is quite a lot of bandwidth, while it should be possible to make the animation 5-10 times smaller. Decrease the resolution or the amount of images, or try some other software (turn the animation into a mp4, for instance).

A comment on the 2012 comparison: Did 2012 hit a record low due to early-season melt ponds (etc) or was it primarily due to the big late-season storm (GAC). Obviously it's some combination of both, but my impression was the latter, given that the 2012 extent trajectory seemed average (for the decade) before the GAC hit. My personal opinion (100% conjecture): the pack is now so weak that early season priming is almost not needed. It's ready to crash given any major event similar to the 2012 cyclone, and maybe a major storm isn't even needed.

I don't agree, on both counts. A lot is still needed to make this melting season go record low. Yes, the prologue has been bad for the ice, but the coming few weeks are crucial. If there's little movement, relatively low temps and enough clouds, it will be over before it even started. We've seen that happen almost every year since 2012.

As for 2012, the ASIB has an archive, and by going through the 2012 ASI updates, you'll see that  there were already hints that 2012 was going to go very low, and probably would have broken all the records, even without the GAC.
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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1213 on: May 27, 2019, 10:03:56 PM »
Maybe you could experiment and create smaller animations.
Ok, will do.

As for 2012, the ASIB has an archive, and by going through the 2012 ASI updates, you'll see that  there were already hints that 2012 was going to go very low, and probably would have broken all the records, even without the GAC.
Thanks, I'll do that.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1214 on: May 27, 2019, 10:13:17 PM »
Looks like a surge of Pacific water came in hit the CAA around the 5-6th bounced back creating some giant internal waves, these then manifest as turbulence as they pass over the Chukchi plateau and turn north, then caught by the shear line of the deep circulation of the gyre they meet Lomonosov and incoming Atlantic stream, here the turbulence is expressed as vertical eddies, concentrating different fractions and venting vapour through any cracks, seeding meltponds with condensation.+leaving a glazed ice surface+ Thats my guess, maybe an animation of the relevent thinner ice over the bathymetry will show I'm wrong, beyond my abilities though.

added+-+
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 10:21:34 AM by johnm33 »

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1215 on: May 27, 2019, 10:38:58 PM »
Surface temps have remained close to (but often just below) freezing so far. That changes over the next few days and the FV3-GFS (which has less T2m bias issues) has the temps over the pole (deep in the CAB) staying above freezing for the foreseeable future. This should get snowmelt going in earnest, especially where the sun can break through low clouds under that dome of high pressure.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1216 on: May 27, 2019, 10:56:30 PM »
Maybe you could experiment and create smaller animations. 10 MB is quite a lot of bandwidth, while it should be possible to make the animation 5-10 times smaller.

Here they are, greatly reduced. Keep in mind that, given this are the first such animations for 2019, it's 2 months of data. I've deleted the originals and moved them to a low-traffic thread, in case anyone wants to zoom in on particular regions of interest (which is what I like to do), here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2706.msg201524.html#msg201524.



To add another animation to the mix, here's a cropped version of the Bremen false color map, Apr 1st to present. Also the same images but, mainly in an attempt to reduce cloud artifacts, smoothed by using for each pixel the 5-trailing-days' median value. (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/)
« Last Edit: May 27, 2019, 11:08:12 PM by petm »

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1217 on: May 27, 2019, 11:23:08 PM »
Great work, thanks.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1218 on: May 27, 2019, 11:41:10 PM »
Great work, thanks.

quality is gone, not saying what is more important but the whow-effect with vivid colors and high resolution is gone, hence it's not the same value because details got lost.

just saying

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1219 on: May 27, 2019, 11:46:11 PM »

Here they are, greatly reduced. Keep in mind that, given this are the first such animations for 2019, it's 2 months of data.

one post above this is my opinion while of course only neven has a say when it comes to data usage and the likes. i just provided my observations.

now as to possible solutions depending on how you make them:

i'm quite sure you are using some kind of cloud storage, just depends which one.

if you're using a cloud storage that includes sufficient data for a reasonable price tag or for a subscription that is used either way, it would be possible to upload the full version to that cloud storage and link it below the reduced version.

in case that you don't have such amounts of cloud storage, i could share some of mine with you, i have more than 1TB of cloud storiage but use only about 150GB at the moment. just let me know what you think.

just offering what i have to offer, if not needed or not wanted or not feasible simply discard the idea.


EDIT: BTW i don't think that the thread where you post it makes a difference, it will use the same amount of disk space in any thread of this forum while traffic would be smaller in another thread of course if that was your direction of thinking. again neven will tell what's possible and what not.

<edit Neven: I'll tell you what's possible. What's possible is that you send this kind of messages to petm personally via PM. This isn't a chat room.>
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 11:32:40 AM by Neven »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1220 on: May 27, 2019, 11:53:00 PM »
what you can do is upload the movie to youtube and embed the video, that would be a free storage. this only makes sense if one makes a gif from a video or uses the video itself, hence it depends on the final solution you choose but it's feasible that way and costs nothing and the traffic is on the google server that way.

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petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1222 on: May 28, 2019, 12:10:01 AM »
what you can do is upload the movie to youtube and embed the video, that would be a free storage. this only makes sense if one makes a gif from a video or uses the video itself, hence it depends on the final solution you choose but it's feasible that way and costs nothing and the traffic is on the google server that way.
Thanks magnamentis. I much prefer the bigger versions too. I simply moved them to a new thread, so that only those interested can view them, rather than all visitors to the melting thread. They are here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2706.msg201524.html#msg201524 .

Actually, I have even larger versions than what I have posted as well, the original size not resized to 700 pixels wide. If you'd like those, let me know on the above thread and we'll figure something out.

P.S. Thank you very much for your offer to share cloud space. I do indeed have a dropbox subscription, if need be.

P.P.S. I'm not sure about storage vs. bandwidth. Waiting to see if Neven asks me to move it off the server.

JamesW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1223 on: May 28, 2019, 12:14:16 AM »
Near complete fracturing/fragmentation around the North of Greenland.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 12:46:53 AM by JamesW »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1224 on: May 28, 2019, 01:23:05 AM »
Clearer sky over possible melt pond area at roughly 85.3N 96.5E northern laptev/cab. Shown here using worldview terra modis cr367 and unihamburg amsr2uhh, may 25-27
Do you think these are really melt ponds?
On the one hand, Terra 3-6-7 does detect liquid vs. frozen water (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/faq/worldview-snapshots-faq#modis-367). But on the other hand, the dark shapes look to me more like some kind of cloud, rather than ice topography. They also seem in places to overlap fractures, which doesn't make sense (but may be illusory) (att). They also don't show up on 7-2-1 (att).
If they are indeed melt ponds, they are very extensive (att).
On corrected reflection, no I don't. The way they move with the ice over a number of days doesn't suggest cloud shadow either. It looks like sunburn. edit; A strong sun event imprinted on the ice through cloud perhaps.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 01:28:39 AM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1225 on: May 28, 2019, 01:44:49 AM »

I've been burned by these modeled cloud forecasts before, buyer beware.


Thanks JayW.

Yes. The usual caveats apply to all modelled forecasts.

Looking at Worldview visible north of Greenland (like in James W's last post) the cloud layer appears thin (semi transparent).

Toggling between the various models too produces significantly different outputs. Much of Arctic currently clear on the GFS, cloudy on the ECMWF & Access (Australian) with German model (Icon) somewhere between ! 

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1226 on: May 28, 2019, 01:51:27 AM »
Is it me or the EC prediction has even worsened a bit? Persistent HP pulling ice further into the ocean in Beaufort, lots of heat along Siberian coasts at some point, and an insidious coupling with lows near Kara, esp on the 2nd June, with textbook transpolar drift from Laptev to Fram, associated export and damage to the whole Atlantic front?

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1227 on: May 28, 2019, 02:07:38 AM »
since there are not so many camera's around that are showing the melting process under various conditions we have an opportunity to witness the demise of a yet closed ice cover with ponds and all within the next few days. right now it's raining in barrows and the following is what we can expect for tomorrow, way above 10C and at least some sunshine.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1228 on: May 28, 2019, 02:12:59 AM »
Persistent HP pulling ice further into the ocean in Beaufort, lots of heat along Siberian coasts at some point, and an insidious coupling with lows near Kara, esp on the 2nd June, with textbook transpolar drift from Laptev to Fram, associated export and damage to the whole Atlantic front?

The current US Navy GOFS 3.1 sea ice drift forecast (NAVGEM forcing) for June 2nd. Opening up the existing areas of open water in both the Beaufort and Laptev/CAB areas. Plus a close up for the Beaufort Sea.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1229 on: May 28, 2019, 02:18:02 AM »
right now it's raining in barrows and the following is what we can expect for tomorrow, way above 10C and at least some sunshine.

It is rain/sleeting currently in Utqiagvik but given that the record max there for May is only 8 C, the figures you are showing from that app seem well above the mark.

Attached is the NWS forecast (in deg F)

Could it be those figures are actually for Barrow NW England !!

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1230 on: May 28, 2019, 02:26:18 AM »
since there are not so many camera's around that are showing the melting process under various conditions we have an opportunity to witness the demise of a yet closed ice cover with ponds and all within the next few days. right now it's raining in barrows and the following is what we can expect for tomorrow, way above 10C and at least some sunshine.

Which weather service are you getting that data from? I'm looking at weather.com and AccuWeather and the  the high for the day is 3-4C

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1231 on: May 28, 2019, 02:28:10 AM »
Do you think these are really melt ponds?
On corrected reflection, no I don't. The way they move with the ice over a number of days doesn't suggest cloud shadow either. It looks like sunburn. edit; A strong sun event imprinted on the ice through cloud perhaps.

To clarify, personally I don't think these current dark areas on MODIS 3-6-7 are necessarily melt ponds. Before I go that far I like to see 7-2-1 turning a darker shade of blue, and preferably Landsat/Sentinel "natural color" confirmation as well. Failing that MODIS "true color" confirmation at a pinch.

By way of example, here's the Laptev Sea on May 31st 2012: https://go.nasa.gov/2JIpVf4 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1232 on: May 28, 2019, 02:53:01 AM »
Which weather service are you getting that data from? I'm looking at weather.com and AccuWeather and the  the high for the day is 3-4C

Here's Weather Underground's version of events, including Tiksi and Pevek:
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1233 on: May 28, 2019, 03:06:34 AM »
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp
   
 
     Climate Reanalyzer shows large drop in snow cover between May 27 and June 6, and dominance of high pressure air masses over Arctic on June 6.  PDF attached.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 03:45:01 AM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1234 on: May 28, 2019, 06:53:07 AM »
May 23-27.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1235 on: May 28, 2019, 07:29:38 AM »
May 23-27.

After watching a bunch of these, I'm learning that a lot of the movement goes back and forth.

Example, liftoff on the Russia side of Chuchki early in the gif coinciding with the cyclone a few days ago and then settling back.

Beaufort showing significant decline but now running in the "arm" of whatever MYI is left in the region. How much will that slow it down?

Very interesting coastal gap emerged from Nares around the tip of Greenland and half way down to Fram. Suggestion of vulnerability but maybe it just snaps back??

Ice in the 60-70N range on the Atlantic side looks to be on it's way out.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1236 on: May 28, 2019, 09:29:28 AM »
Climate Reanalyzer shows large drop in snow cover between May 27 and June 6, and dominance of high pressure air masses over Arctic on June 6.  PDF attached.

Bear in mind that Climate Reanalyzer is based on the Global Forecast System, which as discussed upthread is not to be trusted for an Arctic forecast 240 hours out.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1237 on: May 28, 2019, 09:34:36 AM »
Beaufort showing significant decline but now running in the "arm" of whatever MYI is left in the region. How much will that slow it down?

It will be extremely interesting to find out!

Quote
Very interesting coastal gap emerged from Nares around the tip of Greenland and half way down to Fram. Suggestion of vulnerability but maybe it just snaps back??

It will almost certainly just snap back, but there is undoubtedly some vulnerability there too. See the astonishing events later on in the 2018 melting season:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/could-northabout-circumnavigate-greenland-in-2018/



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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1238 on: May 28, 2019, 01:28:34 PM »
According to GPS, we now have a setup with high pressure AND above average freezing temp right at the north pole. The size of the above average temp ring isn't massive. Maybe it's covering 20% of the ocean.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1239 on: May 28, 2019, 01:54:58 PM »
According to GPS, we now have a setup with high pressure AND above average freezing temp right at the north pole.

I assume you meant GFS?

However according to snow buoy 300234066342810 currently located almost exactly at the North Pole the air temperature there at 9:04 UTC had risen to a mere -1.3 Celsius.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1240 on: May 28, 2019, 02:54:42 PM »
Yes..GFS...a typo.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1241 on: May 28, 2019, 02:57:32 PM »
It is rain/sleeting currently in Utqiagvik

The sea ice is certainly looking a bit damp this morning:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-webcams/
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1242 on: May 28, 2019, 03:29:27 PM »
Climate Reanalyzer shows large drop in snow cover between May 27 and June 6, and dominance of high pressure air masses over Arctic on June 6.  PDF attached.

Bear in mind that Climate Reanalyzer is based on the Global Forecast System, which as discussed upthread is not to be trusted for an Arctic forecast 240 hours out.
This sounds as if some other source - any, one, - "could"  be trusted for an Arctic forecast 240 hours out. AFAIIK, none can be. Ergo, if they all are to be taken with either truckload of salt (less "doubted" ones) or even few truckloads of that same NaCl (less "reliable" ones) - do we really need to make a distinction? Me, i'd just say, if anything, something like "it's 240 hours out man, so - fat chance. But fancy, yeah". P.S. Is it just me or is snowcover as-is already catastrophic?
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1243 on: May 28, 2019, 04:06:12 PM »
everything looks potentially catastrophic except , as Gerontocrat points out , the figures . Anyone just looking at sea ice data would not be worried , while anyone just looking at the weather and the ice would be thinking along the lines of 'OMFG' ..
  I have been in the latter camp since early winter , watching as export has removed half the multiyear ice and most of the ice freezing days this winter/spring . Nares has weakened the whole pack by remaining open . And now glorious sunshine and a little rain .   b.c.
 
ps .. I have posted a warning @ gfs temps over the basin each of the last 4 years .. they cannot be trusted from day 1 never mind day 10 .. and of course this affects Climate Reanalyser figures as any reanalysis they do seems to add heat ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1244 on: May 28, 2019, 04:10:42 PM »
It's yet another fine day over the North Pole: https://go.nasa.gov/2JKmLHq

Some darker red patches are visible on MODIS 3-6-7. Switchg to 7-2-1 reveals leads aplenty, but nothing that satisfies my "darker shade of blue" melt ponding criterion:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1245 on: May 28, 2019, 04:13:34 PM »
An animated comparison with 2016 from Wipneus' "Home Brew AMSR2" thread:

Which is currently removed has been reuploaded whilst I try and work out why it autoplays in here but not over there.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 05:35:24 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1246 on: May 28, 2019, 04:34:59 PM »
Hi Jim .. I have been encouraging everyone to post in a format that requires a click to play the gifs etc .. I note Wipneus did so but you changed the format so that it plays automatically . Can you consider those with restricted data .. and the planet as your way consumes more energy .. surely one of this forum's no no's .. .. cheers b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1247 on: May 28, 2019, 05:26:12 PM »
Hi Jim .. I have been encouraging everyone to post in a format that requires a click to play the gifs etc .. I note Wipneus did so but you changed the format so that it plays automatically.
Hi b.c.

As far as I am aware I did nothing of the sort. I merely linked to the GIF that Wipneus had previously uploaded to the forum.

Is there a Simple Machines expert in the house who can explain what's going on?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1248 on: May 28, 2019, 05:31:16 PM »
I think you found a bug, Jim.

Recently i discovered the forum software has also a problem with German Umlaute (ä,ö,ü) in links.

Perhaps that's something Neven has to report to the software maker.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1249 on: May 28, 2019, 06:02:54 PM »
everything looks potentially catastrophic except , as Gerontocrat points out , the figures . Anyone just looking at sea ice data would not be worried , while anyone just looking at the weather and the ice would be thinking along the lines of 'OMFG' ..
  I have been in the latter camp since early winter , watching as export has removed half the multiyear ice and most of the ice freezing days this winter/spring . Nares has weakened the whole pack by remaining open . And now glorious sunshine and a little rain .   b.c.
 
ps .. I have posted a warning @ gfs temps over the basin each of the last 4 years .. they cannot be trusted from day 1 never mind day 10 .. and of course this affects Climate Reanalyser figures as any reanalysis they do seems to add heat ..
You express it really well. Only that the figures, taken altogether, are not very encouraging:
- snow cover anomaly not catastrophic but well in the low side
- extent, well pretty low, 2nd lowest
- compactness started to show low values, so area must be taking a little dive (not a cliff though, yet)
- PIOMAS third lowest or so.
-Temps are not extreme, but running high post el Niño.
- bad weather in June
This is the opposite of 2017 when extreme low thickness had many of us myself included, fooled.