The 2019 melting season

[Clenchie]

Good news - arctic explorer is back online:

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/

[b_lumenkraft]

Wow, i like how fast this website is. There is very little delay when zooming in and out. Amazing!

[meddoc]

The Beaufort is in pretty bad Shape. Ca. 3 weeks ahead as of worst Case 2016, so far.
Also, without zooming in Melt Ponds clearly visible in Beaufort, Chuckchi, ESS.
Very bad.

[Lord M Vader]

Hello dipole!?

Latest EC 00z ensemble run depicts a dire situation with a potential dipole building up in the foreseeble future. A short term dipole is managable, but what if we are going to see a dipole lastning for a week or weeks? That would be a very serious blow to the sea ice and almost a certain guarantee for a new records low.

Another question, is it just me or was the melt ponds more pronounced in the Arctic at this time back in 2012?

[Sterks]

That's obvious, and we have the open skies to verify that there is less surface melt spread over the Arctic.
Now the coupling of Beaufort HP with ESS - Kara lows can change that.
What is damning nonetheless is the open water extent in the Arctic proper.

[Neven]

Except for the Siberian side (especially near the Lena delta), I wouldn't say the difference is very pronounced, but 2012 looks like it has more melt ponds overall. I think differences will show up more clearly in the next two weeks, when the ice pack starts to turn blue.

[Lord M Vader]

Thanks Neven! Will be extremely interesting to see the PIOMAS numbers next week and compare to 2007 and 2010-2012. How did June 2012 evolve wrt high pressure, dipoles and Fram export?

[Paul]

Hello dipole!?

Latest EC 00z ensemble run depicts a dire situation with a potential dipole building up in the foreseeble future. A short term dipole is managable, but what if we are going to see a dipole lastning for a week or weeks? That would be a very serious blow to the sea ice and almost a certain guarantee for a new records low.

Another question, is it just me or was the melt ponds more pronounced in the Arctic at this time back in 2012?

It does look more and more likely a dipole of some sort may well set up. I think whats been missing so far despite all this high pressure is true warmth from the landmasses but that is expected to change as you would expect at this time of year.

Melt ponds tend to develop at this time of year especially on the fast ice in the ESS so as Nevan says, maybe in a couple of weeks time we will have more of an idea how melt ponds may influence the ice melt.

[Jim Hunt]

Hi res Arctic Basin extent looks as though its heading into uncharted territory.

Meanwhile please wish me luck. I'm just about to head off for the first ever music festival of my entire life! Alice's Wicked Tea Party, rather than Glasto. Fortunately the sun is shining, and I am well prepared!

Many thanks to Jill, manager of Axminster Mole Avon Country Stores for taking my mug shot. (Which is the right way up on my laptop!)

[sark]

North coastline of Alaska is nearly open.  open water all the way to Axel Heiberg or even deeper in about a day

[JayW]

These large floes don't seem to have the strength like 2016 in the Beaufort.  I hope this isn't the thicker, multi year ice that's been discussed.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i01&x=16862&y=20466

This was the largest chunk. (Requires a click)

[jdallen]

More central Beaufort detail.

Image is of about 60,000km2.  Note the increasing "streamers" of ice - this is happening through the interior of the Beaufort pack, but just more visible at the margin of the big polynya that's opened up.

Insolation hitting and being trapped by low-albedo open water is starting to take a toll on the ice, with or without melt ponds.

I give ice that's looking like this about two weeks, tops, before the extent is reduced down to a few isolated large MYI remnants.

[jdallen]

More reference, for what melt ponds look like when they get fully developed.

Foxe Basin.

Edit: Added image of the Kolyma river delta region in the ESS.  This one is developing.

[be cause]

Hi JayW .. I've followed that floe since 1st May .. I wasn't expecting it to be rubble by 1st June . It managed to average 10km per day .. . I wonder what will be left of it come 1st July ? b.c.

[Pragma]

More reference, for what melt ponds look like when they get fully developed.

Foxe Basin.

Edit: Added image of the Kolyma river delta region in the ESS.  This one is developing.

Sorry for sounding dense, but I still don't know what I am looking at. Some sort of annotation would be very helpful.

On the top picture, there are dark areas on either side of a blue region in the upper left. Is this what you are referring to as a melt pond?

[bbr2314]

I would suggest that Foxe Basin is melt ponding especially severely as it is one of the only redoubts of substantially thick ice capable of supporting melt ponding. I think much of the difference with 2012 in peripheral areas is simply because the ice is so much thinner in 2019 that it can't support substantial melt ponding before giving out entirely.

PS: ESRL data is almost finished for May 2019, a cursory comparison with recent bad years shows 2019's temps in the High Arctic were worst on record (and unlike last year, this year's major +++ anomalies also sprawled across Baffin, Greenland, and the CAA). We should be able to make the month-to-month comparisons tomorrow with previous years, but vs. 2012, 2019 blows it out of the water.

The situation in the Beaufort and Bering is unprecedented, IMO. The combination of the two fronts is possibly the equivalent of meth'd up Germans marching + Panzer-ing through the Ardennes instead of dealing with Benelux and the Maginot Line. We probably only have another few weeks before Chukchi and Beaufort capitulate almost entirely, let's hope the peripheral CAB doesn't go Vichy although I'm not optimistic on that front either at this point.

[Tor Bejnar]

I still don't know what I am looking at.

The blue tinged ice is 'covered' with little melt ponds.  Some people see it more easily than others (degrees of color blindness, maybe).  A 'closeup' of melt ponds on Petermann Glacier tongue 2016 - 2019 (end of May) is in Petermann Thread.  Note that 1 of the 3 earlier years doesn't have any melt ponds, and 2 have blue tinge without obvious ponds (and the glacier is moving!)

[Pragma]

The blue tinged ice is 'covered' with little melt ponds.  Some people see it more easily than others (degrees of color blindness, maybe).

OK, Got it.

It also depends on the angle of my screen ! :-)
Clear, now that you have pointed it out.

Thank you.

[Alphabet Hotel]

Image is of about 60,000km2.  Note the increasing "streamers" of ice - this is happening through the interior of the Beaufort pack, but just more visible at the margin of the big polynya that's opened up.

This whole season is really starting to look very bad. Ice is just pouring down the Nares Strait, the whole pack is rotating like it sometimes does right at the end of the melt season, and we are just now entering the peak six weeks of northern hemisphere insolation. Unless something unexpected shows up to save things, we are in for a wild ride these next six weeks.

[gerontocrat]

SST Anomalies @ 31 May from http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Really hot in the North Pacific.

Also some warmth way up north in Baffin Bay. Air temps have also been predominantly warmer than average  up there for some time.

[Thomas Barlow]

Hi res Arctic Basin extent looks as though its heading into uncharted territory.

Meanwhile please wish me luck. I'm just about to head off for the first ever music festival of my entire life!

Uncharted territory. Good luck !

[magnamentis]

More central Beaufort detail.

Image is of about 60,000km2.  Note the increasing "streamers" of ice - this is happening through the interior of the Beaufort pack, but just more visible at the margin of the big polynya that's opened up.

Insolation hitting and being trapped by low-albedo open water is starting to take a toll on the ice, with or without melt ponds.

I give ice that's looking like this about two weeks, tops, before the extent is reduced down to a few isolated large MYI remnants.

i suppose that leads and open water is more destructive to the ice than are melt-ponds. much darker albedo wise and saltier as well, just musing over the possibility while i lack the exact knowledge on the matter.

[subgeometer]

These large floes don't seem to have the strength like 2016 in the Beaufort.  I hope this isn't the thicker, multi year ice that's been discussed.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i01&x=16862&y=20466

This was the largest chunk. (Requires a click)

One striking thing for me is how not only the original floe is roundish rather than angular, the cracks also all follow sinuous curves. Isn't that unusual?

[Rich]

I'm seeing an analogy between following Arctic melt seasons and certain late 19th century boxing matches.

In the old days, some boxing matches would go on until one fighter could no longer continue and the longest fight went over 100 rounds and 7 hours. Betting would take place as to who would win and which round the fight would end.

A round in the Arctic cycle is a melting season in which AGW amplified weather takes on the ice and a freezing season for the ice to recover.

We already know that the ice is going to lose the fight to AGW. We're just following and analyzing the current round.

As we approach the mid-point of the melting season, it looks the ice is having a bad year.

By the 2D measure of area / extent, 2019 is 2nd lowest. That's not good and we're very likely to close the gap with 2016.

The Pacific side looks as bad as ever, leaving the balance of the ice closer to the Fram vacuum cleaner. Beaufort is one of the locations with significant amount of end of season ice and a buffer between Pacific warmth and the CAB. We could easily see record ocean intrusion on that side this year

Will AGW connect on a big punch in 2019? We don't know. With each round she gets stronger. We can see the vulnerability.

[b_lumenkraft]

the whole pack is rotating

I watched the edges closely, 360˚ yesterday and this is not an exaggeration. There is literally no single point where the ice pack is mounted to coastlines or islands.

[wdmn]

I'm not going to pretend like I know anything about arctic sea ice melt (well, after about 8 months on this forum, probably more than 99% of humans, but it's a steep learning curve from here), but I keep looking at tealight/nico sun's concentration map (below) and one thing that worries me is the rapidly dwindling size of the 100% concentration in the area above Ellesmere and Greenland (is that what gets called the CAB)?

Not sure if this is a good way of thinking about the melt season, but it seems foreboding, especially with the Nares in full evacuation mode, since what happens in that area is what most strongly determines the final extent, no?

[Tor Bejnar]

the area above Ellesmere and Greenland (is that what gets called the CAB)?

yes.  In the upper right corner of this page is a link to the ASI Graphs.  Click it, then click the "Regional graphs" tab.  There you'll see the Cryosphere Today based map of the Arctic showing the several (main) areas in the Arctic.  (They ignore the Baltic Sea, for example.)  Click on the map for an enlargement.  Once on the ASIG, you can spend hours (months, years even) studying the maps and graphs and links.

[wdmn]

Thanks Tor.

It's quite the year to be learning...

[jdallen]

More reference, for what melt ponds look like when they get fully developed.

Foxe Basin.

Edit: Added image of the Kolyma river delta region in the ESS.  This one is developing.

On the top picture, there are dark areas on either side of a blue region in the upper left. Is this what you are referring to as a melt pond?

Not exactly.  In the upper picture, the melt ponds are in the distinctly blue regions running down the right center of the map.  The very dark areas are open water.  The grey areas may be potentially be slash ice or ice which otherwise has disintegrated, or it may just be an artifact of overcast.

The area in the ESS is not as distinct, but shows coloration which suggests surface water is starting to collect on the ice.

[jdallen]

Image is of about 60,000km2.  Note the increasing "streamers" of ice - this is happening through the interior of the Beaufort pack, but just more visible at the margin of the big polynya that's opened up.

This whole season is really starting to look very bad. Ice is just pouring down the Nares Strait, the whole pack is rotating like it sometimes does right at the end of the melt season, and we are just now entering the peak six weeks of northern hemisphere insolation. Unless something unexpected shows up to save things, we are in for a wild ride these next six weeks.

I agree it is very worrysome... but in 3 years of the last 6 I've been following the ice - 2013, 2014 and 2016 - after very disturbing starts, the weather shifted dramatically due probably to negative feedbacks, and the ice was saved.

I'm concerned, mostly about the weather.

I'm saving my panic for the end of June if things don't change.  That would put 2019 in a direct break from what happened in the previous years (thought it was in fact a cool July that saved 2016...)

[jdallen]

I'm not going to pretend like I know anything about arctic sea ice melt (well, after about 8 months on this forum, probably more than 99% of humans, but it's a steep learning curve from here), but I keep looking at tealight/nico sun's concentration map (below) and one thing that worries me is the rapidly dwindling size of the 100% concentration in the area above Ellesmere and Greenland (is that what gets called the CAB)?

Not sure if this is a good way of thinking about the melt season, but it seems foreboding, especially with the Nares in full evacuation mode, since what happens in that area is what most strongly determines the final extent, no?

Maybe, except when it doesn't

There is a lot of concern on the forum right now which is justified, but again, what everything we are seeing hinges on is the weather over the next two months, for the most part.

While we are at lower extent than 2016, I'm remembering how shattered and dispersed the pack was in 2013 and to a lesser degree in 2016.

It may be this year the weather doesn't save the ice, it may not, and we may muddle on for a few more years as we have been.

Watch the weather; it more than extent or concentration will be the determinant of how things turn out; that's what I've learned watching the forums.

[edit: before people start a storm of comments about the difference between weather and climate...
Weather will determine which year we have a crash in the ice.
*Climate* is the reason a crash is now possible... it wasn't previously possible within my lifetime.
 THAT is the problem.]

[oren]

Just nitpicking: while true that many years start bad and turn around, 2016 is not what I call "the ice was saved", with its ultra-low minimum area, the worst ever ice state around the Pole, and the very delayed refreeze that followed it. Ice saved only in the context that a new record was avoided, and that low compaction gave the impression of a better situation that it actually was.

[jdallen]

Just nitpicking: while true that many years start bad and turn around, 2016 is not what I call "the ice was saved", with its ultra-low minimum area, the worst ever ice state around the Pole, and the very delayed refreeze that followed it. Ice saved only in the context that a new record was avoided, and that low compaction gave the impression of a better situation that it actually was.

I mostly agree, and a major reason we didn't have a new low minimum extent was the lack of compaction.

Never the less, weather still rules, though progressively, the pendulum is being lowered over successive seasons until a crash becomes inevitable.

[b_lumenkraft]

Hi Pragma,

idk if it helps, but i made a GIF that shows the Foxe Basin in different bands available on RAMMB-SLIDER (http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu).

(Click to play)

[El Cid]

The situation in the Beaufort and Bering is unprecedented, IMO. The combination of the two fronts is possibly the equivalent of meth'd up Germans marching + Panzer-ing through the Ardennes instead of dealing with Benelux and the Maginot Line. We probably only have another few weeks before Chukchi and Beaufort capitulate almost entirely, let's hope the peripheral CAB doesn't go Vichy although I'm not optimistic on that front either at this point.

What a lyrical way to describe the situation
For all other WW2 geeks, there is one saving grace though: Poland (the Atlantic front) is still fighting to the surprise of all

[JayW]

Ice in the Barents marching to it's demise.  I'm guessing this is still being counted as extent?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i01&x=17694.875&y=13175.0419921875

Requires a click

[Jim Hunt]

Uncharted territory. Good luck !

Thanks Thomas. In the event it was an astonishingly wondrous event, once I'd located the venue! Much more to come on my alter ego's Twitter feed.

The headline act, die kur, played a two hour set. By the end of it the lead vocalist's face was glowing like MODIS 3-6-7 on a bad day. Check out their lyrics, but for the moment see if this appeals?

[Tor Bejnar]

Ice in the Barents marching to it's demise.  I'm guessing this is still being counted as extent?
...

Looks like mass desertion to me. 

[meddoc]

Ice in the Barents marching to it's demise.  I'm guessing this is still being counted as extent?
...

Looks like mass desertion to me. 

Oh, wait, Hollywood recently portrayed the Barents to be like this-
only forgot to mention, which Ice Age it was...

[gerontocrat]

Ice in the Barents marching to it's demise.  I'm guessing this is still being counted as extent?
...

Looks like mass desertion to me. 

Oh, wait, Hollywood recently portrayed the Barents to be like this-
only forgot to mention, which Ice Age it was...

The Barents sea area is slow to decline this year compared with the 2010's average.
Lots of ice arriving from the main ice pack?

Greenland sea area decline has also stalled. Same reason?
Note how slow Greenland sea ice area decline was in 2012 was, while 2018 was a record-breaker. Dependence on ice export from the Fram, methinks.

[Thomas Barlow]

Not sure if this is a good way of thinking about the melt season, but it seems foreboding, especially with the Nares in full evacuation mode, since what happens in that area is what most strongly determines the final extent, no?

It certainly allows for more ice export into the Atlantic (and cooler surface temps than usual in the north Atlantic, south of Greenland - but won't stop warmer, saltier, denser, N. Atlantic waters from meandering at depth into the Arctic Ocean), and less albedo potential in the Lincoln Sea, Arctic Ocean north of Greenland & Ellesmere. North Pole air temp. was above freezing recently.
All this has happened before, just not quite as synchronously perhaps?

[Thomas Barlow]

Arctic Ocean (the most important body of sea-ice of the northern hemisphere) at lowest extent for time of year.
Graphed by Wipneus.
https://tinyurl.com/yyy6ur53

[magnamentis]

Just nitpicking: while true that many years start bad and turn around, 2016 is not what I call "the ice was saved", with its ultra-low minimum area, the worst ever ice state around the Pole, and the very delayed refreeze that followed it. Ice saved only in the context that a new record was avoided, and that low compaction gave the impression of a better situation that it actually was.

I mostly agree, and a major reason we didn't have a new low minimum extent was the lack of compaction.

Never the less, weather still rules, though progressively, the pendulum is being lowered over successive seasons until a crash becomes inevitable.

perhaps it's worth to mention that not that far out we gonna see a new minimum record even after a cool summer.

why?

because the ice "mass" is getting lower and lower and sooner or later it will be so thin that a most normal or even cool summer will suffice.

i could have used the term "volume" instead of "mass" but i started to dislike the "volume" term because it's mostly associated with "piomas" numbers that are obviously and outright wrong because their algorithm can't manage the new conditions of dispersed and fragmented ice for some reason.

for quite some time we all came to terms that as long as results are based on the same flaws we can at least compare the results which IMO is not the case anymore due to the fact that there is a flaw in the algorithm that was indeed always there but not relevant, not showing due to lack of a specific condition that would trigger the flawed results.

[RoxTheGeologist]

Thanks Tor.

It's quite the year to be learning...

I find Wips area and extent graphs really very useful; they shows what's expected and what is out of the ordinary.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional.

The CAB doesn't look like it's different from previous years. The same cannot be said for the Beaufort and the Chukchi.

[Pragma]

i could have used the term "volume" instead of "mass" but i started to dislike the "volume" term because it's mostly associated with "piomas" numbers that are obviously and outright wrong because their algorithm can't manage the new conditions of dispersed and fragmented ice for some reason.

I agree with you, but I am only saying that on a gut level. I stare at, and process, physical data every day and you develop a feel for these things. Sometimes things just don't look right.

That is about as unscientific as one could be, but I chalk it up to our subconscious working in the background. That's my excuse :-)

I have seem PIOMAS values viewed with skepticism before, but does anyone have a handle on exactly where the deficiencies lie and how one might adjust for them?

This is frustrating for me and it ties into a common theme being expressed on the forum right now; Many of our metrics are only telling a small part of the story, and to me, it seems much of it comes down to ice dynamics.

For example, changes in extent are of limited use unless compaction or dispersion are both known and understood. Similarly, the Atlantic side could be seen as not melting when in reality, the ice movement is steadily and rapidly replenishing any ice loss in that area. There are at least half a dozen other examples of this problem but I'm sure you know what I mean. In a nutshell, has the ice melted, refrozen or moved?

I check the graphs and satellite shots regularly, but I realize that I am mostly just trying to read tea leaves, or the entrails of goats. I eagerly await the monthly(?) PIOMAS values as I hope/expect them to tell me the "real" story, yet I am trusting that data less and less.

I recall Prof. David Barber talking about his 2009 trip to the arctic, expecting a large area in the central arctic to consist of solid ice, only to find it to be rotten and virtually no obstacle to the ice breaker. So what is it that we really know for sure? Have we improved much, in ten years?

It may just come down to sitting and waiting, because the weather variability overwhelms the trend signal. That is not easy for analytical types that want to know about something that is both historical as an event, and critical to our future.

[be cause]

I suggest everyone takes a look at A-team's latest offering over in Test space . It shows the last 78 days of a record breaking ice movement within the Arctic basin causing export of older ice to continue apace . b.c.

[Neven]

SMOS June 1st 2012 vs 2019, confirming that 2012 looks slightly 'worse', but not easy to compare, given the differences in distribution:

[oren]

In the inner basin, 2012 much worse in the Siberian sector, and in the Atlantic sector, with 2019 much worse in the Pacific sector. Easy to see how 2012 has a big cliff coming up soon with all that thin ice. Thing is, the thick Atlantic sector of 2019 is mostly doomed by September anyway, so that may make it an even match, 2012 will take the lead but 2019 can still catch it with the right weather.

[Alphabet Hotel]

I suggest everyone takes a look at A-team's latest offering over in Test space . It shows the last 78 days of a record breaking ice movement within the Arctic basin causing export of older ice to continue apace . b.c.

Here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg202881.html#msg202881

[bbr2314]

In the inner basin, 2012 much worse in the Siberian sector, and in the Atlantic sector, with 2019 much worse in the Pacific sector. Easy to see how 2012 has a big cliff coming up soon with all that thin ice. Thing is, the thick Atlantic sector of 2019 is mostly doomed by September anyway, so that may make it an even match, 2012 will take the lead but 2019 can still catch it with the right weather.

I disagree here. The Siberian sector in 2012 wasn't actually that low in concentration, SMOS was picking up on melt ponding. 2019's ice is insufficiently thick to maintain melt ponding in the same region. Your point re: the ATL front is also valid. So the PAC front is where differences matter most IMO and in that regard, 2019 is blowing 2012 out of the water.

Here is the May anomaly map (2019-2012). As you can plainly see, 2019 was much warmer across the entire Arctic, but was especially warm across the CAB.

My "triangle of cooling" between the Rockies, Hudson Bay, and the Great Lakes is also especially evident this month, but even moreso when comparin Jan-May vs 2012. Abrupt climate change? It is happening now... interesting to note that most of Eurasia is also now cooler than 2012 (only slightly), with subsequent warming limited to the NW Rockies, Japan, and the High Arctic (I would imagine this is the manifestation of continued accumulation of oceanic heat content alongside +continental snowfall / volume, although both Eurasia and North America hovered around +1SD for most of May, that is sufficient to result in minor / substantial cooling relative to the "worst" year of 2012 in most locations).