Thanks, Neven for the figures, data and explanations re: May.
I have some more stuff, like SLP and SAT distribution maps that show that nothing comes close to 2019. I may post some of it later.
I think there's a good chance sea ice extent negative anomalies will move ahead of 2016 in about ten days.
Yes, I agree. ECMWF has more lows coming into play, but not pushing out high pressure completely. And the two of them fighting for prominence, generally isn't good for sea ice.
The big question for the coming two weeks, is whether 2019 can emulate what happened in 2012 wrt preconditioning (melt ponds). It's fascinating, given the past month, how 2019 can be lagging in this segment. But it may have to do with melt onset first occurring under cloudy conditions, which 2012 had more of, as a sort of pre-preconditioning (as that first melt usually freezes over again, but is more prone to turn into melt ponds fast, during May and June). I'll have to look into that some more.
I should be blogging about this on the ASIB, but I'm not sure I can dedicate myself to a full melting season...