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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1400 on: June 02, 2019, 11:21:35 PM »
PS, here is last 12 months vs. 2012. Note the scale here is -5 / +5C (vs. -10 / +10C in the above maps).

The two worst changes on both ends of the spectrum are 1) worsening accumulation of OHC in the highest latitudes (especially the NPAC) and 2) worsening albedo-driven anomalies in North America, particularly in the "triangle" bound by the Rockies, HB, and the Great Lakes.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1401 on: June 03, 2019, 12:14:13 AM »
Worldview, aqua modis, beaufort to fram, jun2.
extent, area and volume figures are on the low side. imho this area of probable thickest ice does not look too good either.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1402 on: June 03, 2019, 12:37:03 AM »
I like channel 3-6-7 for diagnosing surface melt conditions.  Current View shows that although the Beaufort has low ice, the surface is quite cool with pretty much no surface melting.  Not much surface melting visible elsewhere in the Arctic, maybe a slight hint in Laptev/Siberian sector.  It wouldn't suprise me if Kara is melting under all that cloud.

In contrast 2012 had significant surface melting visible on the Pacific edge at this date.  By the 6th June surface melt had expanded to much of the Russian half of the Arctic. 

My reading of the current forecast is that while there is a decent high pressure in place, there isn't a whole lot of flow into/out of the Arctic, and the uppers are on the cool side.  Current situation is comparable to 2012, and certainly not significantly worse.  Surprising to me that we are 7 years on and yet to break the 2012 record.  Weather needs to get a hurry on or the strong melt conditions in early to mid June will open up a substantial lead in surface melt for 2012 in my opinion.
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aperson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1403 on: June 03, 2019, 12:51:41 AM »
Extensive melt-ponding in the Laptev Sea near the Lena River Delta has occurred over the past 5 days. This is indicated by the darker blue compared to the cyan that ice (both on the surface and as cloud vapor) returns. Attached is Jun 2nd Terra/MODIS bands 7-2-1 from Worldview: https://go.nasa.gov/2WLEyV6
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1404 on: June 03, 2019, 12:53:59 AM »
PS, here is last 12 months vs. 2012. Note the scale here is -5 / +5C (vs. -10 / +10C in the above maps).

The two worst changes on both ends of the spectrum are 1) worsening accumulation of OHC in the highest latitudes (especially the NPAC) and 2) worsening albedo-driven anomalies in North America, particularly in the "triangle" bound by the Rockies, HB, and the Great Lakes.

I can say from personal experience that it's been very cold around the Great Lakes. I had to turn the furnace back on this morning. And it's been cold and rainy all Spring, with maybe three or four days of "normal" weather. The forecast is for more of the same for the next five days, but after tomorrow not quite as cold. Still below normal though, and almost 100% cloud cover is predicted after tomorrow.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1405 on: June 03, 2019, 03:00:58 AM »
I strongly suggest to anyone who wants to understand what is special about the 2019 melting season, to play (multiple times; in full screen) the following 2-sec animation posted by A-Team in the test space thread.

The whiter shades are those of the oldest ice. You can see the effects of sustained movement towards the Atlantic, with lots of old ice still poised at the threshold, as well as the significant cumulative effects of the Nares "sinkhole" draining the some of the ice which was saved from the Atlantic movement.

The mp4 tests whether very fast (80ms) back and forth looped display over the 15 Mar -01 Jun 2019 early melt season is visually effective in understanding cumulative sea ice motion which has been truly extraordinary the last 6-7 months.

Towards the end, it shows (rainy?) weather coming in from Alaska over the Beaufort. The file size is so small at this speed at 1.2 MB that a whole year could be shown under forum size limits, possibly even two if water and land masking had been applied.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1406 on: June 03, 2019, 04:31:33 AM »
That's a fascinating gif. Thanks to A-Team for putting it together and Oren for sharing.

One interesting place on the map for me is where the Beaufort arm is connected to the main pack. It looks like the arm is getting pulled out of the shoulder socket as the "hand" is reaching for the circulation pattern that would ultimately lead to the Atlantic (not this year..too far away).

Could the arm separate and head off on it's own?

This is a very interesting view. I hope it will be shared periodically going forward.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1407 on: June 03, 2019, 06:56:10 AM »
It looks like the arm is getting pulled out of the shoulder socket as the "hand" is reaching for the circulation pattern that would ultimately lead to the Atlantic (not this year..too far away).


Looks to me like the Beaufort ice nursery has been paid a visit by Anakin Skywalker...

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1408 on: June 03, 2019, 07:45:36 AM »
May 29 - June 2.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1409 on: June 03, 2019, 08:41:33 AM »
Some observations and speculation.

There don't seem to be any obvious areas of strength now. The ESS is full of ice, but that seems primarily due to strong winds pushing / keeping the ice there.

GFS is showing relatively warm water hugging the coast from the Bering Strait all the way around Alaska t to the CAA. This could be the signature of Pacific intrusion.

Cracks are showing along the edge of CAA all the way to Ellesmere. That could be for a variety of different reasons (Pacific intrusion, wind, current, etc) and may be temporary or not. A bad case scenario would seem to be lift off and rotation toward the Atlantic.

The high pressure and above freezing temps persists over the pole for the forseeable future.

There are tail winds helping push ice through Fram.

There some interest in a large floe heading for Nares.

Atmospheric temps are not very high, but if the heat doesn't come to the ice ....the ice can go to the heat via export.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1410 on: June 03, 2019, 09:36:02 AM »
May was warmest on record Arctic-wide (65-90N), -2.772 vs -2.813 °C in 2010.
Details:
  • Atlantic 16th lowest on record
  • Siberian 8th lowest on record
  • Pacific was warmest on record, -1.475 vs -1.543 °C in 1990
  • Canadian was warmest on record by far, -2.855 vs -3.604 °C in 2006
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1411 on: June 03, 2019, 09:45:36 AM »
Canadian was warmest on record by far, -2.855 vs -3.604 °C in 2006

I think you have that backwards Neven.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1412 on: June 03, 2019, 10:01:49 AM »
Canadian was warmest on record by far, -2.855 vs -3.604 °C in 2006

I think you have that backwards Neven.

You mean, it's better to say 'least coldest' instead of 'warmest', because the temps are still below zero?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1413 on: June 03, 2019, 10:10:08 AM »
OMG i'm stupid. Forget it...  :-X

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1414 on: June 03, 2019, 11:08:19 AM »
Hi res Arctic Basin extent looks as though its heading into uncharted territory.

Which is the way things have turned out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/

Pan Arctic extent looks as though it will follow suit in the very near future.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1415 on: June 03, 2019, 12:07:28 PM »
However compactness is flattening, which at this time of the year indicates relatively cold ice surface.

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1416 on: June 03, 2019, 12:29:24 PM »
925 Vector wind anomaly for May.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1417 on: June 03, 2019, 12:34:51 PM »
In the coming months, I think it should be fair to compare 2019 with 2007 and 2012 depending on how the weather pattern evolves. Speaking in temps, 2007 put the standard for warmest summer and what we should compare with.

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1418 on: June 03, 2019, 12:41:27 PM »
Neven, please explain the "Warmest on record" 65-90 N when above 80 N it has been quite average. Perhaps 65-80 N was insanely above average? Just seems like we should have seen a spike up top.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1419 on: June 03, 2019, 01:04:18 PM »
Neven, please explain the "Warmest on record" 65-90 N when above 80 N it has been quite average. Perhaps 65-80 N was insanely above average? Just seems like we should have seen a spike up top.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Just compare to years like 2007 and 2012 (or 2010, second lowest on record for May) and you'll see that it's not uncommon. It's all ice from 80N northwards, whereas from 65N you have some land masses as well. And it covers a much larger area than just 80-90N.
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1420 on: June 03, 2019, 01:12:09 PM »
And please remember: the DMI N of 80 chart is very misleading. It uses a longitude-weighted average rather than an area-weighted average, giving the same weight to the small circle 89-90 deg around the pole as to the 19-times bigger circle of 80-81 deg (home I am not mistaken in my numbers).
In addition, temps in summer are pegged to the melting point of sea ice, for as long as sea ice covers most of the Arctic ocean. So it will always seem average, until it isn't. Admittedly for May this effect is small.
Quote
Plus 80N Temperatures - explanation.
The temperature graphs are made from numerical weather prediction (NWP)
"analysis" data. Analyses are the model fields used to start NWP models. They
represent the statistically most likely state of the atmosphere, given the
information available to make the analysis. Since the data are gridded, it is
straight forward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North.
However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean
temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most
northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual
physical mean temperature of the arctic. The 'plus 80 North mean temperature'
graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf

echoughton

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1421 on: June 03, 2019, 01:45:57 PM »
Oren, in all fairness, the graph is used quite often in seasons other than summer to show the elevated temps....so we are to not concern ourselves with summer figures?

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1422 on: June 03, 2019, 01:54:56 PM »
Oren, in all fairness, the graph is used quite often in seasons other than summer to show the elevated temps....so we are to not concern ourselves with summer figures?

Of course we are, but you have to keep in mind all the caveats wrt the DMI 80N graph.

But in the end it's all about one summer figure, when there's so much open water north of 80N that the trend line is liberated.
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Often Distant

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1423 on: June 03, 2019, 01:56:47 PM »
Lena delta. Not the earliest thawing though still of interest as ever. Wildlife could have a nice view.



be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1424 on: June 03, 2019, 02:01:03 PM »
The 06.00 FV3-GFS brings a lot of wind to the mix with a mega-dipole developing across the Arctic basin . A 56mb differential with above 0'C would do a lot of damage . Perhaps this new version of GFS likes developing extremes ?
  Other forecasts appear less dramatic but change from our mature high pressure seems inevitable although with the FV3 it never quite leaves and remains influential to the forecasts end .. as does 'that little low' .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1425 on: June 03, 2019, 02:24:27 PM »
The 10 day GFS outlook is pretty crappy.

Minimum temperature at the pole remains above zero. Average temperature forecast for the entire Arctic above zero. Center of the high pressure system moves slightly toward CAA.

2019 should retake the area lead from 2016 before long.

max_123

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1426 on: June 03, 2019, 02:36:53 PM »
And please remember: the DMI N of 80 chart is very misleading. It uses a longitude-weighted average rather than an area-weighted average, giving the same weight to the small circle 89-90 deg around the pole as to the 19-times bigger circle of 80-81 deg (home I am not mistaken in my numbers).
In addition, temps in summer are pegged to the melting point of sea ice, for as long as sea ice covers most of the Arctic ocean. So it will always seem average, until it isn't. Admittedly for May this effect is small.
A longitude-weighted average makes no sense at all... Is there a different version? Only covering sea areas would also be interesting, there you should see the effect Neven mentioned. If one has the gridded values it should be easy to implement.
But if I understand correctly the source is still the ECWMF output. I haven't a lot of experience with weather simulations and reanalysis, but it seems that especially the temperatures are not really accurate... does anybody know which anlysis can be trusted more than others? Good references would be welcome :)

May was warmest on record Arctic-wide (65-90N), -2.772 vs -2.813 °C in 2010.
Details:
  • Atlantic 16th lowest on record
  • Siberian 8th lowest on record
  • Pacific was warmest on record, -1.475 vs -1.543 °C in 1990
  • Canadian was warmest on record by far, -2.855 vs -3.604 °C in 2006
Neven, can I ask where you get the the data for these calculations?

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1427 on: June 03, 2019, 03:08:04 PM »
Neven, can I ask where you get the the data for these calculations?

Yes, you can, and the answer is here.
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oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1428 on: June 03, 2019, 03:44:01 PM »
I think I should have said by latitude... but yeah it makes no sense. I wish DMI would change their chart.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1429 on: June 03, 2019, 03:55:54 PM »
And please remember: the DMI N of 80 chart is very misleading. It uses a longitude-weighted average rather than an area-weighted average, giving the same weight to the small circle 89-90 deg around the pole as to the 19-times bigger circle of 80-81 deg...

Oren, i've deleted the pinned tab in my browser for this now. Thanks for making this clear, i wasn't even aware.  :o

Trebuchet

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1430 on: June 03, 2019, 04:30:30 PM »
 The Beaufort gyre ice destroyer is up and running, the bottom melt caused by all that +1 degree water is telling already. If the high pressure holds the Beaufort could be at 2-3 degrees in a week. I just hope we don't get a replay of 2012 when you can see big old ice floes disintegrate in days after being swept into water at 8 degrees.

 Below is a picture comparison between May 27th and June 2nd. I wonder just how much bottom melt there was in this de compacted pack last month?

(edit)

 I'll answer my own question here https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html and it's worse than I expected.

« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 04:58:41 PM by Trebuchet »
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1431 on: June 03, 2019, 06:05:17 PM »
Thanks, Neven for the figures, data and explanations re: May.

This melting season is very interesting so far because 1) the heat anomalies have been in what is normally the coldest part of the Arctic in May; 2) the transpolar drift has returned with a vengeance; 3) high pressure and positive 500mb gph anomalies have dominated the arctic; 4) there was very little ice in the Bering sea all winter and 5) the Nares strait never formed an ice arch.

The CANSIPS model is predicting high pressure to dominate the Arctic this June. When a model predicts persistence of an ongoing trend there's a better than average probability that the model is right. Given no other knowledge, persistence is your best bet.

Low pressure anomalies in the north central Pacific often couple with high pressure anomalies in the Arctic. So... I think there's a good chance sea ice extent negative anomalies will move ahead of 2016 in about ten days.

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1432 on: June 03, 2019, 06:33:20 PM »
Thanks, Neven for the figures, data and explanations re: May.

I have some more stuff, like SLP and SAT distribution maps that show that nothing comes close to 2019. I may post some of it later.

Quote
I think there's a good chance sea ice extent negative anomalies will move ahead of 2016 in about ten days.

Yes, I agree. ECMWF has more lows coming into play, but not pushing out high pressure completely. And the two of them fighting for prominence, generally isn't good for sea ice.

The big question for the coming two weeks, is whether 2019 can emulate what happened in 2012 wrt preconditioning (melt ponds). It's fascinating, given the past month, how 2019 can be lagging in this segment. But it may have to do with melt onset first occurring under cloudy conditions, which 2012 had more of, as a sort of pre-preconditioning (as that first melt usually freezes over again, but is more prone to turn into melt ponds fast, during May and June). I'll have to look into that some more.

I should be blogging about this on the ASIB, but I'm not sure I can dedicate myself to a full melting season...  :-\
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FrostKing70

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1433 on: June 03, 2019, 06:41:10 PM »
The Beaufort gyre ice destroyer is up and running, the bottom melt caused by all that +1 degree water is telling already. If the high pressure holds the Beaufort could be at 2-3 degrees in a week. I just hope we don't get a replay of 2012 when you can see big old ice floes disintegrate in days after being swept into water at 8 degrees.

 Below is a picture comparison between May 27th and June 2nd. I wonder just how much bottom melt there was in this de compacted pack last month?

(edit)

 I'll answer my own question here https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html and it's worse than I expected.

Thank you for the link to the animation.   In addition to what you point out in Beaufort, I was surprised at how quickly the outlet of the Nares Strait went ice free.

pearscot

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1434 on: June 03, 2019, 08:01:53 PM »
I finally put together a gif to better understand the currents/heat transfer to the arctic, as well as the overall el nino/Atlantic warmth for this year's hurricane season. Either way, I made this because I'm particularly interested in just how warm the Gulf of Alaska now is and also the the warm Gulf Stream current (which I believe to be fueling much of the atlantification of the arctic).

« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 10:18:18 PM by pearscot »
pls!

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1435 on: June 04, 2019, 12:13:11 AM »
Pearscot, the heat content of the north Atlantic has built up slowly over the decades. It was quite low in the mid 1970s after the effects of "the Great Salinity Anomaly". In the late 1960s the Beaufort gyre dumped a load of fresh water on the Labrador sea and deep water formation slowed down. That likely led to a slow down of the Gulf Stream. Heat built up in the main development region for hurricanes and Camille reached cat 5 while New England had a cold and very snowy winters in the late 60s.

Anyway, the heat content of the north Atlantic has been increasing since the late 1970s and has slowly worked its way north into the subarctic seas. Heat has gradually moved from the subarctic seas to the Atlantic water layer at 300 to 600 or so meters in the Arctic ocean. That water has slowly upwelled along the continental shelves of the Arctic ocean adding to sea ice mass loss over the past few decades.

The fast way for ocean heat to have an impact on sea ice is by storms that track from both the Pacific and Atlantic into the Arctic.  Advection of heat and water vapor on the Pacific side of the Arctic has been very impressive the past few years and has led to the record low sea ice extents in the Bering sea region.

The SST anomaly animation has a lot of information relevant to atmospheric heat advection, but it's on a shorter time scale than the processes that have caused Atlantification of the European side of the Arctic ocean.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1436 on: June 04, 2019, 01:12:48 AM »
FooW:

That's interesting stuff I wasn't aware of. Have any of these changes been attributed to anything specific since? i.e. part of a natural cycle, or more ACC induced?

I ask because I am finding more and more clues that suggest we set the feedback system in motion a lot earlier than is generally assumed.

If you, or anyone else, can point me to something with some technical depth. but readable, I'd like to learn more about it.

Thanks.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1437 on: June 04, 2019, 02:38:29 AM »
Perhaps this new version of GFS likes developing extremes ?
  Other forecasts appear less dramatic

Both GFS and ECMWF are showing heat building in northern Eurasia and then a low wanders east blasting a mega intrusion of warmth over half the basin starting around day 5. How's this for an outlandish 925hPa forecast from Windy today(way off in the future I know).( I've also included today's - the Laptev Sea will have above freezing air aloft for most of the week.)

To be fair the GFS forecast is more extreme, climaxing with ~20C surface  _minimums_ along the Laptev and ESS coasts as warm winds shunt the ice towards the CAB and Atlantic, but showing the same general pattern


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1438 on: June 04, 2019, 05:21:49 AM »
Lena delta. Not the earliest thawing though still of interest as ever.

You beat me to it! Here's my take:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Lena
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1439 on: June 04, 2019, 05:48:57 AM »
Beautiful images.

For those who don't know where the Lena Delta is, it is where the Lena River flows into the Laptev Sea. Map below shows the river, which drains from Lake Baikal.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1440 on: June 04, 2019, 06:16:38 AM »
Interesting watching that A-Team animation, it seems quite likely that the ice that was at the north pole at the time this thread was opened, will have been exported from the basin by the end of the season.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1441 on: June 04, 2019, 06:29:03 AM »
Interesting watching that A-Team animation, it seems quite likely that the ice that was at the north pole at the time this thread was opened, will have been exported from the basin by the end of the season.

I totally agree with that. As the season progresses and the ice quality declines, the rate of export should increase.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1442 on: June 04, 2019, 06:48:23 AM »
...but the Kara sea definitely on very thin ice.

I would guess the Kara will start dropping rapidly soon; not sure how this year would compare to past years if that proves to be the case.

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Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1443 on: June 04, 2019, 07:47:55 AM »
I know there is a lot of excitement on this board that this could be the year everyone's been waiting for: the "Armageddon" mentioned by Gerontocrat in the sea ice extent/area thread. It will be like the "second coming" if and when it happens.

That said, I'm going out on a limb to say I doubt we will see a record low this year. It will be like the past few years and disappoint.

Sorry to be a wet blanket. And sorry for not putting the next paragraph in the proper thread (since none exists on this site).

There is a cliff developing that WILL be Armageddon for the pharmaceutical companies. As someone who studies trends and technologies, the perfect storm is about to happen before our very eyes: (1) big money patents are expiring, (2) the maker of oxycontin is going to prison, (3) J&J and other big pharma face huge liabilities, (4) medical marijuana is becoming a reality, (5) the internet spreads information that cannot be suppressed.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 07:55:55 AM by Feeltheburn »
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1444 on: June 04, 2019, 07:59:07 AM »
I know there is a lot of excitement on this board that this could be the year everyone's been waiting for: the "Armageddon" mentioned by Gerontocrat in the sea ice extent/area thread. It will be like the "second coming" if and when it happens.

You're not paying attention. The 'Armageddon' has already started, regardless of whether this melting season breaks any records or not. And it makes perfect sense for people who are worried about AGW, who take its potential consequences seriously (unlike you), to 'hope' for even more spectacular images of Arctic sea ice loss, so that maybe enough people wake up to start doing something about it, even though we should have started 30 years ago.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1445 on: June 04, 2019, 08:05:23 AM »
Wait, what? ???

A CEO going to prison is the real Armageddon and we love to see the ice go?

Have you visited bizarroASIF? Is there a glitch in the matrix?

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1446 on: June 04, 2019, 08:21:19 AM »
Here I am testing the limits of Ascat enlargement and contrast enhancement for depicting ice movement in the core thick CAB ice from Sept 2018 to June 2019. The original starting Ascat is shown in the lower left corner exactly as offered at its online archive, cropped to the same view.

While some areas of ice above and to the west of Ellesmere hardly seem to move over the 256 days, other large and normally immobile areas below the pole are moving rapidly towards and out the Fram. If this pattern of ice pack motion continues, it will devastate the core of thick multi-year ice remaining, even with so-so melt season thermodynamics. The motion is far more extreme than 'trans-polar' drift as that is usually depicted.

On the technical side, the passages of the CAA are masked out as they were just adding distraction.
Another one of A-Team's superb animations from the test space thread. The big issue is the net motion over long periods. Movements back and forth are impressive but not really damaging.
I note that after a major breaking event in the Lincoln Sea (right before the doomed "arch" formed for one month), the main body of ice makes a large sliding movement across the Lincoln Sea towards the Fram (day 60?). I get the feeling the Lincoln Sea can sometimes serve as a static wedge that can slow down the movement towards the Fram - but not this year.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 08:29:13 AM by oren »

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1447 on: June 04, 2019, 09:20:21 AM »
So?

<edit Neven: A 7 MB animation for just three images? Come on, you can do better.

edit 2: Let me add a 0.5 MB animation showing four years.>
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 10:12:10 AM by Neven »

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1448 on: June 04, 2019, 09:36:06 AM »
So?

There are many indicators showing the terrifying arctic sea ice such as minimum extent/area in Sep.
2007 and 2012 had experienced rapid ice loss in Sep, however boucing up quickly in Autumn. A century strong el-nino happens in 2015 ends in 2017. Although we did not see a record low but we saw early open water either pacific side or atlantic side. Albedo warming is accumulaitng through a whole year. I am not curious about the minimum extent in Sep for a single result but focusing on the whole scenario.

vox_mundi

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1449 on: June 04, 2019, 10:22:20 AM »
Dr. Jeff Masters (Wunderground-Cat6) is referencing Neven's ASIF ...

Strong Arctic High-Pressure System Bringing Significant Melting of Sea Ice 
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Strong-Arctic-High-Pressure-System-Bringing-Significant-Melting-Sea-Ice

A large surface high pressure system has set up shop over the North Pole and is predicted to stay there and intensify over the next ten days. This will bring clear skies, warm temperatures, and near-record and possibly record melting of Arctic sea ice. Over the next ten days, temperatures are predicted to be near or just above freezing over much of the Arctic Ocean--about 2 - 5°C above average--according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg202956.html#msg202956
... See Fig 1 Image credit: Neven Curlin/Arctic Sea Ice Forum
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 10:35:08 AM by vox_mundi »
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