The 2019 melting season

[b_lumenkraft]

✧ʕ̢̣̣̣̣̩̩̩̩·͡˔·ོɁ̡̣̣̣̣̩̩̩̩✧ Nice!
 

[Dharma Rupa]

....even though we should have started 30 years ago.

30 years?  mutter...mutter...Try 150 years...mutter....mutter.

[Aluminium]

Water level in the Lena river at Kyusyur. Centimetres.

[oren]

Aluminium, thanks for the (almost invisible) link. Bookmarked.

[Neven]

Dr. Jeff Masters (Wunderground-Cat6) is referencing Neven's ASIF ...

Well, let me return the favour. 

Here's the most pertinent quote:

The latest GFS model forecast suggests that the Arctic high will drift to a location a few hundred miles north of Alaska by mid-June and remain strong. This position and strength is characteristic of the Arctic dipole anomaly, which features unusually high pressure over the Arctic Ocean north of North America and unusually low pressure over northeastern Eurasia. This pattern brings in warm southerly winds along the shores of the East Siberian and Chukchi seas, which favors strong ice melt in these sectors and pushes the ice away from the coast, leaving open water. The pressure pattern also causes loss of Arctic sea ice due to winds that transport of ice out of the Arctic Ocean and into the North Atlantic through Fram Strait, to the east of Greenland.

Indeed, and ECMWF shows the same. Three more days of 1035 hPa over the Beaufort, and then lows are coming into play as well. We'll see what that does to ice colour, especially on the Siberian side.

[Gray-Wolf]

Again I believe that this year weill see less ice (extent/area) but that the clunky way we measure extent/area will mean we see little change in the numbers even if the ice cover is 30% reduced in that grid square?

That drop to less than 15% cover, in a summer warmed ocean ,really does mean the ice will melt our entirely in that grid!

The extra open water is the new 'melt ponds' with the early opened ocean becoming 'kill zones' for ice in late melt season.

Let us see how much open water there is by months end and where it is positioned?

'Bottom melt' end of the season will become ever more impacting as open water warms ever more over mid melt season and so takes ever more 'rump ice'?

[Thomas Barlow]

The Arctic Ocean remains at the lowest extent for this time of year.
Graphed by Wipneus.
https://tinyurl.com/y4ta2h74

[Thomas Barlow]

Northern hemisphere sea-ice extent is about 2nd lowest for this time of year (2016 was lower at this time).
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[Shared Humanity]

Another one of A-Team's superb animations from the test space thread.

Yikes! Looks like the thickest ice in the CAB has been racing for the exit (Fram) since last fall.

How is the mobility of the ice captured in this animation compare to previous years?

[cavitycreep]

Sea ice concentration, May 21 to June 3

[F.Tnioli]

...
I should be blogging about this on the ASIB, but I'm not sure I can dedicate myself to a full melting season... 

I wouldn't worry about that, Neven. I'd just do what would be possible to do at any given moment while in hope for the best. Many of us are not even sure if our bodies can remain in one piece for the next ~15 minutes, - talk about dedicating to oneself's whole _life_, you know? Because ~15 minutes, they say, is how much time many of us will have if some "nuclear club" country(ies) would just decide to push the big red button. So, ASIB - maybe just try and see if dedication comes in in the process? It'll be OK either way, anyhow.

[b_lumenkraft]

East Siberia Laptev, eastward off Severnaya Zemlya, 03.06. 08:07h vs. 04.06. 14:33h UTC

The rotation of the ice pack is causing deep cracks. I bet we'll see more of this in the coming days.

[pearscot]

That article on Weather Underground was interesting - especially if a true dipole becomes established. I've been saying it for a while now, but with the energy already in the system, I think all it's going to take are a few factors working in combination to really kill the ice. I think warm temperatures with extensive movement thru the Fram will really open up more areas of water and with a high pressure system in place, even cool temps won't stop the ocean from absorbing more solar energy.

[Sterks]

According to Rutgers snow lab, NH snow cover anomaly in May was bad, no '17 or 18 cold spring, but not as bad as as 2012 or 2016.
This is consistent with Tealights chart at
https://cryospherecomputing.tk
where it is seen 2019 tied with 2012, except in Eurasia where is running 1 week late wrt 2012.

[Often Distant]

East Siberia

*Laptev, eastward off Severnaya Zemlya

[b_lumenkraft]

*Laptev, eastward off Severnaya Zemlya

Correct, thanks for the correction Often Distant.

[bbr2314]

Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.



For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

[anaphylaxia]

July 24 th and showing almost 80% on Hudson bay? Historically its below 40% by the start of July...

[bbr2314]

July 24 th and showing almost 80% on Hudson bay? Historically its below 40% by the start of July...

The ice there is very thick in most spots, and is high vs. normal now. I think the melting of HB in late July and August will contribute further to a massive cliff considering WITH Hudson Bay intact in that map, numbers are still at the record (I think).

[Aluminium]

DMI temperature north of 80N reached zero.

[be cause]

re Slater's model 
   The Atlantic front eating into the Greenland sea while export continues into Barnetz and Nares .. and yet once again my 'feeling' is that Slater's model is underestimating the state of the ice in 50 days . Probably the most important days in all our days of Arctic watching ; until the next 50 .. 
 
     Interesting that the model only loses 220,000 km of ice in the 5 day period 19-24.07 .. last year NSIDC area fall for the same 5 days was 485,000 ..

    Slater's model must be worth a thread ... anyone ? .. b.c.
 

[be cause]

    re Aluminium's dmi 80 figures .. since the serious decline in ice began , only 2012 reached 0'C before 2019 .. by a day ! Then dipped under again . Recent summers this region , measured as it is , has been colder than the long term mean . For that to change this year would be yet another serious omen for the short term . b.c.

[Paul]

Why does that model keeps getting posted when the owner who used to did this model has passed away, its largely irrelevant imo. There will be no pole hole by the end of July and the only reason the model is showing that is probably down to any lower concentration that might be there right now.

Back to the hear and now it looks like for the short term we may see more of a shallow low pressure cell taking hold but predictions seems strong this will head towards the pole and strong very warm southerly winds hitting the Siberian ice which will cause huge melt ponds and no doubt a even bigger Laptev bite. All very interesting but of course subject to change.

Also looks like Hudson could get a proper major warm blast too which no doubt will affect the ice there.

[Sarat]

Zach just shared volume numbers for May it dropped to the second place.

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1136000825010999296

Edit: Data from PIOMAS which is also updated now.

[bbr2314]

Why does that model keeps getting posted when the owner who used to did this model has passed away, its largely irrelevant imo. There will be no pole hole by the end of July and the only reason the model is showing that is probably down to any lower concentration that might be there right now.

Back to the hear and now it looks like for the short term we may see more of a shallow low pressure cell taking hold but predictions seems strong this will head towards the pole and strong very warm southerly winds hitting the Siberian ice which will cause huge melt ponds and no doubt a even bigger Laptev bite. All very interesting but of course subject to change.

Also looks like Hudson could get a proper major warm blast too which no doubt will affect the ice there.

It's not irrelevant, and to disregard it as such is to demean the work its creator put into it when he was alive. His model is usually very close to perfect, even if the penultimate numbers are off by a few hundred K KM^2. 

[Jim Hunt]

We'll see what that does to ice colour, especially on the Siberian side.

Here's the (false) colour of the Laptev Sea ice today:

[Alphabet Hotel]

DMI temperature north of 80N reached zero.

Wow that was fast. Thanks for posting that - I only check every few days or so.

[be cause]

DMI temperature north of 80N reached zero.

Wow that was fast. Thanks for posting that - I only check every few days or so.

 a full 7 days ahead of schedule .. it takes phenominal energy to lift temperatures in this area a full 1'C above normal at this time of year . The current GFS run is a little cooler but still has the pole above freezing throughout the next 8 days . The weighting of the measure toward the pole may well help keep it in record territory .. b.c.



 

[Sterks]

Why does that model keeps getting posted when the owner who used to did this model has passed away, its largely irrelevant imo. There will be no pole hole by the end of July and the only reason the model is showing that is probably down to any lower concentration that might be there right now.

Back to the hear and now it looks like for the short term we may see more of a shallow low pressure cell taking hold but predictions seems strong this will head towards the pole and strong very warm southerly winds hitting the Siberian ice which will cause huge melt ponds and no doubt a even bigger Laptev bite. All very interesting but of course subject to change.

Also looks like Hudson could get a proper major warm blast too which no doubt will affect the ice there.

It's not irrelevant, and to disregard it as such is to demean the work its creator put into it when he was alive. His model is usually very close to perfect, even if the penultimate numbers are off by a few hundred K KM^2. 

It’s good in aggregate numbers, but I seriously doubt things predicted in some locations will realize. A pole hole by end of July? Meh gimme a break.

[Neven]

Edit: Data from PIOMAS which is also updated now.

Thanks for this. I have just quickly cobbled up two images showing PIOMAS vs SAT-SLP for both halves of May, for the four largest droppers on record 2010, 2012, 2016, 2019. The volume decrease in km3 is below the year.

My interpretation for May 1-15:
2010 lost the most volume, because of the extremely high pressure over the Central Arctic and lots of heat along the Siberian coast. For 2016, second highest drop, the high pressure is less high, and the heat is along the Beaufort coast and the CAA. 2012 probably dropped as much as it did because of all the thin ice melting out in the Bering, because SLP-SAT looks less bad than 2019. The latter didn't lose as much volume as 2010 and 2016 because the high pressure is more towards Greenland and the heat is in the CAB, not along coasts.

My interpretation for May 16-31:
2012 lost the most volume, mostly because of a strong Dipole. 2010 and 2019 are on a par. 2019 has higher pressure (but again centred near Greenland), but 2010 has all the anomalous heat along all coasts. I would've guessed volume loss for 2016 would be higher, but maybe just not enough high pressure and anomalous heat.

BTW, this is high-level eyeballing. I may have to buy a pair of glasses now. 

[Michael Hauber]

June 4 Channel 3-6-7.  Significant amount of red showing in Laptev area.  I'd say 2012, 2015 and 2016 all have more red (Arctic wide) as at June 4 than 2019.  Hard to be sure about 2012 due to cloud cover, but given the events of that year I'm more bullish guessing on red below the clouds for that year.  Red reflects surface melting.

[subgeometer]

DMI temperature north of 80N reached zero.

Wow that was fast. Thanks for posting that - I only check every few days or so.

 a full 7 days ahead of schedule .. it takes phenominal energy to lift temperatures in this area a full 1'C above normal at this time of year . The current GFS run is a little cooler but still has the pole above freezing throughout the next 8 days . The weighting of the measure toward the pole may well help keep it in record territory .. b.c.

Of recent years 2012 is the only year to jump to 0C this early [plays Gothic music]. 2007 by contrast lagged well under the line at this point, and most years recently have gone be;ow the average once it reaches  -7C or so, The onset of melt constrains the temperature. A more fragmented pack has higher surface area available for melt perhaps.

Anyway an extra week at or above 0 can't be good news. I've attached 2012 and 2007 DMI 80 north charts, as well as 1990, another year where summer came early

[Paul]

Why does that model keeps getting posted when the owner who used to did this model has passed away, its largely irrelevant imo. There will be no pole hole by the end of July and the only reason the model is showing that is probably down to any lower concentration that might be there right now.

Back to the hear and now it looks like for the short term we may see more of a shallow low pressure cell taking hold but predictions seems strong this will head towards the pole and strong very warm southerly winds hitting the Siberian ice which will cause huge melt ponds and no doubt a even bigger Laptev bite. All very interesting but of course subject to change.

Also looks like Hudson could get a proper major warm blast too which no doubt will affect the ice there.

It's not irrelevant, and to disregard it as such is to demean the work its creator put into it when he was alive. His model is usually very close to perfect, even if the penultimate numbers are off by a few hundred K KM^2. 

Im only disregarding your suggestion of a pole hole as your describing and i dont think it should be taken at face value as you have.

As cinfirmed by the PIOMAS number, May 2019 has been awful for thw ice and although there seem to be somewhat a respite atm, it does look likely a strong dipole could develop and all eyes will be on the Siberian side of the basin.

[Slim]

Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.



For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

It seems strange to me that this image is showing a high percentage chance that the little ice arm extending on the siberian coast towards Chukchi will still be there a month and a half from now. It seems in awful shape already when inspecting on worldview. The little piece attaching to the alaskan coast is likely to still be there too, according to the image. I find that very hard to believe.

[oren]

Slater's probability map has always been strange, as far as I can recall. I wouldn't put too much trust in it. The extent prediction is usually more reliable, but I'm not sure if it has a statistical edge over following historical loss averages.

[Aluminium]

May 31 - June 4.

[El Cid]

Why does that model keeps getting posted when the owner who used to did this model has passed away, its largely irrelevant imo. T

Because it still has great (maybe the best?) forecasting skill and because it does not matter that its creator is gone, as it is mostly an automated algorithm based on past years' sea ice melting probabilities (you should read how it actually works: https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/) and criticize only afterwards.

It also explicitly states that it is a probablistic forecast. The orange/red pixels near the Pole are 50% ice free which means that each pixel has a 50% chance of being covered and 50% being ice-free. The model states that there is a good chance that we will see one or two bigger holes within the pack. It also states that: "For example, in August and September, the projections are overconfident at the mid-range probability levels. " ie. exactly in the 40-60% probability zone

[Viggy]

Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.



For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

It seems strange to me that this image is showing a high percentage chance that the little ice arm extending on the siberian coast towards Chukchi will still be there a month and a half from now. It seems in awful shape already when inspecting on worldview. The little piece attaching to the alaskan coast is likely to still be there too, according to the image. I find that very hard to believe.

Slater's map does NOT show the expected sea ice situation on the stated date - it shows some version of the current (today's) sea ice situation. The only data point on there corresponding to 50 days out is the prediction of 7.1M sq. km.

For reference, attached is the NSIDC concentration map for June 3rd, 2019, that matches up almost perfectly with Slater's map.


Also attached is a map from JAXA for July 21, 2012, where the sea ice extent was 7.1M sq km (exactly matching Slater's prediction for July 24, 2019). Just with a quick glance, you can see that to have 7.1M, the Hudson, Baffin and Russian coasts would have to be ice free


I somehow still haven't figured out how to embed pictures into the body of messages but I hope that helps!

*Edit - WOOT! Figured out how to embed the pics!

[binntho]

Slater's map does NOT show the expected sea ice situation on the stated date - it shows some version of the current (today's) sea ice situation. The only data point on there corresponding to 50 days out is the prediction of 7.1M sq. km.

I was just about to make the same point, but not as well as you did. I agree, the image is today's ice, the number is the prediction.

[oren]

Ladies and gentlemen, be scared...
PIOMAS modeled May 31st differences between this year and both 2016 and 2012 clearly show the effects of the sustained clockwise arctic-wide ice transport, as well as the ongoing export into Nares. This year has lots of extra ice facing the Atlantic sector, and still it managed to achieve 2nd lowest volume behind 2017, by way of having far less ice in the Pacific sector and in the Lincoln Sea. Most of the extra ice has already been exported to killing zones, and the rest is about to follow.
This sets up 2019 as a prime candidate for continued low volume in the coming months, and possibly competing with the extreme low September ice area of 2012 and 2016.

OTOH, the same comparison with 2017 shows that this is not a guaranteed result. That year was even lower in the central basin, but still "dodged a cannonball" in cooperation with the weather. I think two key differences are the ice transport and HP/clear skies this year, increasing the threat to the ice.
Another caveat is that this year has extra volume in the Laptev compared to both 2012 and 2017. This ice is more important in terms of the September result, and may serve as defense against new records.

All charts courtesy of Wipneus.

[Lord M Vader]

Wipneus ice thickness maps shows that the ice in the southern part of Hudson Bay is very thick. IMO, I would say by eyeballing the map that it is the thickest that have been seen there during the period 2007-2018. Not too unlikely that a fairly large part of Hudson Bay will be covered by ice there by the end of July.

Looking at the current forecast from EC, both operational and ensemble, depicts a potentially extremely bad weather pattern for the ice. If that set up lasts for a couple of weeks it will likely be a very dire situation for the ice by August.

Update: Haah Oren, your timing was perfect! Only a second or so before me in posting.🙂

[F.Tnioli]

...

My interpretation for May 16-31:
2012 lost the most volume, mostly because of a strong Dipole. 2010 and 2019 are on a par. 2019 has higher pressure (but again centred near Greenland), but 2010 has all the anomalous heat along all coasts. I would've guessed volume loss for 2016 would be higher, but maybe just not enough high pressure and anomalous heat.

BTW, this is high-level eyeballing. I may have to buy a pair of glasses now. 

Pretty-please do buy 'em, sir. Because i have a question to you glasses could well help answer. Namely: the bolded part in the above quote clearly means (to me) that 2019 melting potential is greatly higher than that of 2010 (since it's harder to melt things in CAB than along the coast, where it's often fractured, thinner, closer to melting point initially, etc) - so, can you anyhow quantify this? I.e., can you anyhow napkin-calc how much harder it'd be to melt an amount of ice "near Greenland" than to do it "near the coasts", 2nd half of May?

[Neven]

Pretty-please do buy 'em, sir. Because i have a question to you glasses could well help answer. Namely: the bolded part in the above quote clearly means (to me) that 2019 melting potential is greatly higher than that of 2010 (since it's harder to melt things in CAB than along the coast, where it's often fractured, thinner, closer to melting point initially, etc) - so, can you anyhow quantify this? I.e., can you anyhow napkin-calc how much harder it'd be to melt an amount of ice "near Greenland" than to do it "near the coasts", 2nd half of May?

No, I can't, no matter how hard I squint. It's mostly based on gut feelings, and some experience over the years. I haven't looked properly at how 2019 came out of the freezing season, and then there's ocean heat flux as well.

[F.Tnioli]

No, I can't, no matter how hard I squint. It's mostly based on gut feelings, and some experience over the years. I haven't looked properly at how 2019 came out of the freezing season, and then there's ocean heat flux as well.

Copy. Then perhaps A-team or someone could do it. I'll hope.

Meanwhile, Barrow sea ice camera shows quick disappearance of snow and ice remains on shore yesterday, despite very little direct sunlight present there yesterday - looks like less than half an hour - i see the definite shadow only once in the last 24-hour time lapse.   

[b_lumenkraft]

HAH! Caught in the act!

[magnamentis]

HAH! Caught in the act!

that makes it at least three of us keeping that door under surveillance LOL  

[b_lumenkraft]

You made me Mag!

[uniquorn]

Update on the anomaly at roughly 86N 95E which faded from view in uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh over the last few days possibly due to fresh snow. The first animation shows amsr2uhh and worldview terra modis corrected reflectance bands 367 in default and high contrast from may12 to jun4/5.
The second animation shows worldview terra modis for may29 with medium and high contrast.

[Sterks]

The EC forecast is generally bad for the next days, but the last couple of days are sacrilegious, and deserve a watch even 9 -  10 days ahead...

[Lord M Vader]

Correct Sterks, if that forecast, which largely is supporter by the ensemble emanates, it will go from bad to extremely bad.