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uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1500 on: June 05, 2019, 10:15:57 PM »
Clear weather over the laptev and lena delta today. Here is worldview viirs brightness temperature band 15 and true colour. (cloudy to the left) https://go.nasa.gov/2WOsaU6
dark blue ~-2C, yellow ~+2C

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1501 on: June 05, 2019, 10:25:02 PM »
So this is odd. Why is the open sea area so different in temperature?

Is the warmer area warm Lena water while on the coastline still cold unmixed water?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1502 on: June 05, 2019, 10:37:38 PM »
I hereby allow myself this brief off topic excursion.

Recently Cornwall Council here in sometimes sunny South West England declared a climate emergency. A few days ago there was a lively debate on the topic in the Council chamber.

Today I found myself behind closed doors at the Penryn campus of the University of Exeter where Cornwall's future approach to the climate crisis was discussed:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1136230967637696512

My lips are sealed by the Chatham House rules, but I can reveal that the person who advocated "economic growth" was told where to go in no uncertain terms by several people, yours truly included.

The eventual outcome of our deliberations here in Kernow remain uncertain, but it currently seems unlikely that the result will be "green business as usual", or GBAU for short.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1503 on: June 05, 2019, 10:56:12 PM »
So this is odd. Why is the open sea area so different in temperature?
Is the warmer area warm Lena water while on the coastline still cold unmixed water?
Near the Lena delta is probably fresh water flowing over ice which may refreeze.
Not sure how significant the warmer yellow patch to the north is. It could be light cloud.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1504 on: June 05, 2019, 11:37:28 PM »
Sentinel images of Lena water spreading out over ice, over 3 days.

Click to animate

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1505 on: June 05, 2019, 11:48:56 PM »
 dmi80 rose above 0'C today .. the earliest this has happened this century . Yet another stat that now has 2019 ahead of the field .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1506 on: June 06, 2019, 12:54:29 AM »
One thing I notice about the forecast is that there is a mix of strong warm air incursions, and a low pressure system swirling a substantial cool and cloudy pool around the arctic.  I'd say that makes the forecast only moderately bad, maybe even average compared to recent years.  Unless that low spins up enough to cause significant stirring/divergence of the ice, but generally it seems to stay week enough to be good for the ice and not destructive.

A point on the dipole.  There does seem to be a pattern resembling a dipole, but it doesn't seem to be achieving a lot.  Air near Bering region isn't that warm, so there isn't a lot of heat being sucked in by the dipole.  A lot more heat being sucked in from middle Russia by the warm front sector of low pressure towards Laptev.  I suspect that el nino actually helps arctic ice a little.  With an el nino zonal variation in the north Pacific weakens and warm air stays more in the tropics.  With La Nina more likely to have high pressure in NE, and low pressure in NW drawing warm air towards the Bering region.  Then if there is a dipole it will be sucking on much warmer air.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1507 on: June 06, 2019, 02:05:28 AM »
    the LAC .. little Arctic cyclone is interesting .. already a week old it meanders at will and to different conclusions with every run . It has been forecast to exit the basin in any and every direction . One thing that the forecasts agree is that this is a long lived LAC ..
   On GFS's latest run it is firmly centre stage even in 16 days . It has been described as a shallow low .. it remains so , but causes continuous light snow Arctic central . It is inviting warmth and humidity from all directions . Over the GFS run there is almost no coastal area of the Arctic ocean that does not see rain and heat ! An island off Siberia is forecast to reach 20'C+ .. warmer than much of western Europe .
 I fear the coastal heat may prove to be an example of Glen Koehler's post no. 40 in the Atmospheric connections and long range weather forecasting thread citing the variability of melt seasons and the importance of incursions of heat and moisture in increasing melt. b.c.

ps looks like the central pack is kissing the Alaskan coast goodbye in the latest Worldview update . The 'kiss' is now less than 30km wide ..
 
 
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 02:39:15 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1508 on: June 06, 2019, 03:23:32 AM »
It was not the cyclone what called my attention but the sudden ridge warming up on Greenland and CAA and the general circulation created from both continents and to Fram.
But I agree that small cyclones are unpredictable, this one too central (if nothing changes which probably will for better or worse), and will cool things around.
Nonetheless small cyclones can be quite destructive.
Interesting times in this melting season.

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1509 on: June 06, 2019, 04:40:46 AM »
Siberian coastal snow mostly melted out in the last couple of weeks.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1510 on: June 06, 2019, 06:16:33 AM »
Siberian coastal snow mostly melted out in the last couple of weeks.

Makes sense there is a huge heat anomaly going on there right now

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1511 on: June 06, 2019, 08:05:51 AM »
I don't have a lot of time right now to talk about the weather up there but all I can say is right now looking at the all the models and what we've seen so far and they huge albedo drop taking place you can see on the satellite over most of the Arctic.

This year is starting to set up to be an epic f****** melt year.

I'm talking almost the entire ice sheet gone blowing the f****** doors off of 2012 there's no guarantees.

Just stay tuned and be prepared to be blown the f*** away.

I'm sure it won't happen but look at that f****** ridging around Greenland into northern Canada this is the kind of setup we need to see a big f****** bosses and this is trying to set up a right near the solstice oh my God talk about weather p***.

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a two shot that I call Tupac
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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1512 on: June 06, 2019, 08:30:39 AM »
Thanks, Frivolous for your assessment!

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1513 on: June 06, 2019, 08:45:02 AM »
Well, Friv is much better at impersonating himself than the wannabes who tried it recently!

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1514 on: June 06, 2019, 08:48:07 AM »
Echoing others on the thread, minus the asterisks... We're beyond screwed. Not sure we can even _see_ screwed from where we are.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1515 on: June 06, 2019, 10:46:58 AM »
From tonight's run of the EURO.

I know it's cherry picking the worst case scenario is a model shows.

But hey wild weather is pretty freaking awesome we all know it's coming so sit back and enjoy the ride.


Amazing below:

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

El Cid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1516 on: June 06, 2019, 11:11:28 AM »
Well, Friv is much better at impersonating himself than the wannabes who tried it recently!

As the wannabe who tried, I can wholeheartedly agree   :). There's no replacement for the Great Friv. BIG THUMBS UP!

meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1517 on: June 06, 2019, 12:31:36 PM »
2012 had much more of the thick, MYI.
So, if this setup really materializes, we can easily dive below 3 M km2.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1518 on: June 06, 2019, 02:22:20 PM »
Siberian coastal snow mostly melted out in the last couple of weeks.
If you notice, it is also the CAB north of Laptev Sea, and along the Atlantic side of the CAB that shows a slight change in tone here. That's millions of m2 with melt ponds forming. In the 3-6-7 the change to red is even more clear.

Alphabet Hotel

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1519 on: June 06, 2019, 03:08:39 PM »
Cracks have appeared along the shore at Barrow. They weren't there a few hours ago. Also ice seems to be piling up at the edge of the shore ice and pushing toward shore.


deep octopus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1520 on: June 06, 2019, 03:12:23 PM »
The "bridge" of pack ice connecting the fast ice off of Alaska (and separating the Chukchi from Beaufort) is about to vanish (given the ice rotation and melt, I guess either today or tomorrow.)
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 03:30:08 PM by deep octopus »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1521 on: June 06, 2019, 03:25:11 PM »
Take a look at 6Z GFS.



THIS IS JUST UNBELIEVABLE HEMISPHERIC WIDE. 

POWERHOUSE DIPOLE ANOMALY THIS WOULD GENERATE ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF HEAT IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES.

I'M JUST ASTONISHED WE HAVEN'T SEEN SOMETHING LIKE THIS IN JUNE SINCE WHEN IT COME ON SOMEBODY SHOW ME.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1522 on: June 06, 2019, 03:38:31 PM »
Friv, we might prepare ourselves for an onslaught of the sea ice....

The only thing that might stop that dipole set up to som degree is the small cyclone which is foreseen to swirl aroubd for a while.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1523 on: June 06, 2019, 04:13:39 PM »
I don't have a lot of time right now ...

I noticed one too many asterisks in one of your redacted words.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1524 on: June 06, 2019, 04:14:40 PM »
I don't have a lot of time right now ...

I noticed one too many asterisks in one of your redacted words.

But it does seem like a lot of things that have happened before, happening more synchronously this year, as you noted.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1525 on: June 06, 2019, 04:50:13 PM »
Take a look at 6Z GFS.



THIS IS JUST UNBELIEVABLE HEMISPHERIC WIDE. 

POWERHOUSE DIPOLE ANOMALY THIS WOULD GENERATE ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF HEAT IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES.

I'M JUST ASTONISHED WE HAVEN'T SEEN SOMETHING LIKE THIS IN JUNE SINCE WHEN IT COME ON SOMEBODY SHOW ME.

Quite astonishing charts indeed although they have got to verify first and foremost all. No doubt the details will change as the models continue to struggle with that shallow cyclone in particular but what does look most likely is Greenland to have significant height rises similar to big melt years like 2007, 11 and 12.

The fact the Beaufort has such a large area of open water could spell trouble for ice later on in the season and with the heat set to enter the Laptev in 3 or so days time, that hole could get even bigger and the fast ice will no doubt have huge areas of melt ponds.

Only good news for the ice could be that cyclone which might mean the Chuckchi sea ice retreat may finally stop?

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1526 on: June 06, 2019, 05:13:59 PM »
DMI temperature north of 80N above zero now.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1527 on: June 06, 2019, 05:36:50 PM »
At least at the 'southern' location of Petermann Glacier, melt ponding is far more advanced now than in previous 3 years (per Sentinel-hub Playground). (A similar GIF was posted in Petermann thread a few days ago, further out the tongue.) [click required]  You can also watch the crevasse on the right grow, year by year!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Midnightsun

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1528 on: June 06, 2019, 07:00:59 PM »
Take a look at 6Z GFS.



THIS IS JUST UNBELIEVABLE HEMISPHERIC WIDE. 

POWERHOUSE DIPOLE ANOMALY THIS WOULD GENERATE ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF HEAT IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES.

I'M JUST ASTONISHED WE HAVEN'T SEEN SOMETHING LIKE THIS IN JUNE SINCE WHEN IT COME ON SOMEBODY SHOW ME.

Greetings from 65,5N in Scandinavia. It's freakishly hot today, we have +23C cloudless at 19:00. Which would be an insanely warm night in July, normally.

Buckle up. Summer is here.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1529 on: June 06, 2019, 07:44:21 PM »

Greetings from 65,5N in Scandinavia. It's freakishly hot today, we have +23C cloudless at 19:00. Which would be an insanely warm night in July, normally.

Buckle up. Summer is here.

Just for fun: Taivalkoski?

Midnightsun

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1530 on: June 06, 2019, 08:29:22 PM »

Greetings from 65,5N in Scandinavia. It's freakishly hot today, we have +23C cloudless at 19:00. Which would be an insanely warm night in July, normally.

Buckle up. Summer is here.

Just for fun: Taivalkoski?

Nope other side of the pond :)

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1531 on: June 06, 2019, 08:47:03 PM »

Greetings from 65,5N in Scandinavia. It's freakishly hot today, we have +23C cloudless at 19:00. Which would be an insanely warm night in July, normally.

Buckle up. Summer is here.

Just for fun: Taivalkoski?

Nope other side of the pond :)

OK, last one. Storsund?

It was an interesting search. The whole area is roasting and some nearby are even warmer, (Arvidsjaur 24 C) hours later. Amazing!

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1532 on: June 06, 2019, 10:02:02 PM »


The North East of the Foxe Basin and Baffin island seem to be in the worst state in the last decade
Here is a the link if you want to step through the previous years: https://go.nasa.gov/2IoGtp8

Csnavywx

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1533 on: June 06, 2019, 10:22:19 PM »
New EPS/EC and FV3-GFS are pretty disastrous, especially towards mid-month as the main Greenland ridge retrogrades (as big blocks often do) towards the CAA. This has the potential to take a "merely" warm pattern into an outright blowtorch dipole with high export.

The fireworks should start before that though, as big hits look due across the ESS and Laptev as well as some hit to the CAA and CAB proper. A small PV anomaly looks to partially shield the vulnerable Beaufort and Chukchi area for a bit, giving it a small reprieve before being subjected to the aforementioned dipole later.

This is considerably different from the past few years as CAB snow cover looks to be assaulted early on and this easily gets ponding going over quite a bit larger area than we've been used to seeing.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1534 on: June 06, 2019, 10:25:21 PM »


The North East of the Foxe Basin and Baffin island seem to be in the worst state in the last decade
Here is a the link if you want to step through the previous years: https://go.nasa.gov/2IoGtp8
I agree. I suspect this is partially due to the massive wildfires in NW Canada in late May. If you roll EOSDIS from 5/20-6/1 you can see there was a large deposition of black carbon in this area.

Darvince

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1535 on: June 06, 2019, 10:28:33 PM »
DMI temperature north of 80N reached zero.
DMI temperature north of 80N above zero now.
    re Aluminium's dmi 80 figures .. since the serious decline in ice began , only 2012 reached 0'C before 2019 .. by a day ! Then dipped under again . Recent summers this region , measured as it is , has been colder than the long term mean . For that to change this year would be yet another serious omen for the short term . b.c.

I haven't been paying much attention to this Arctic melt season, mostly paying attention to the Greenland melt season, as I thought the Arctic season would go much like the last two years (or even better)... Until this happened. Now I am sitting up and paying attention.

As to why I thought that? It mainly had to do with the much better winter that the sea ice in the high Arctic had faced, especially in January, and the lack of strong surprises of heat in the rest of the 2018-19 winter. I was also not very concerned by the events of April and May, as everything that was happening was still below freezing, except for the early strong opening of the Beaufort. Now, however, with the very early signal of Arctic melt I am watching more closely.

Darvince

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1536 on: June 06, 2019, 11:35:39 PM »
Here is a tentative ranking of subjective whiteness from whitest to bluest/greenest for June 5th from 2000 to 2019, based on https://go.nasa.gov/2WWvSva these Worldview settings.

1st (lightest): 2004
2nd: 2000
3rd: 2003
4th: 2009
5th: 2006
6th: 2018
7th: 2002
8th: 2008
9th: 2014
10th: 2013
11th: 2001
12th: 2017
13th: 2010
14th: 2005
15th: 2015
16th: 2011
17th: 2019
18th: 2007
19th: 2016
20th (darkest): 2012


Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1537 on: June 07, 2019, 12:45:37 AM »
I agree. I suspect this is partially due to the massive wildfires in NW Canada in late May. If you roll EOSDIS from 5/20-6/1 you can see there was a large deposition of black carbon in this area.

I agree that the early wildfires in Canada and the early melt in Foxe Basin have both been interesting parts to this melt season so far, but I don't believe the melting in Foxe Basin is related to soot from the wildfires. 

If you look back in Worldview, the most northern ice in Foxe Basin was already starting to show hints of blue as early as May 14 and 15, before the wildfire smoke really got going. 

Additionally, although it initially looked like the smoke was headed for the Hudson, most of it was blown away to the south. 

The NWT got baked with some of its warmest March temperatures ever this year, including the earliest 70+ degree temperature ever recorded which happened on 3/19/19 at Yohin Lake.  That explains the early outbreak of wildfires.

I think that warm weather must have moved east and started the early melt out in Foxe Basin. Unfortunately, I am not aware of where to find reliable temperature data for that particular location. 

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1538 on: June 07, 2019, 01:35:14 AM »
  Darvince's post reminds me of one I made earlier ..

  Sequence ?  .. 2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1539 on: June 07, 2019, 01:39:40 AM »
Here is a tentative ranking of subjective whiteness from whitest to bluest/greenest for June 5th from 2000 to 2019, based on https://go.nasa.gov/2WWvSva these Worldview settings.

1st (lightest): 2004
2nd: 2000
3rd: 2003
4th: 2009
5th: 2006
6th: 2018
7th: 2002
8th: 2008
9th: 2014
10th: 2013
11th: 2001
12th: 2017
13th: 2010
14th: 2005
15th: 2015
16th: 2011
17th: 2019
18th: 2007
19th: 2016
20th (darkest): 2012

I agree that 2019 is behind 2016 and 2012, based on what I've looked at with 3-6-7 channels (haven't looked at 07).  Current forecasts cook some parts of the Arctic towards the edge, with large parts and much of the core staying on the cooler side.  One run of GFS forecast a serious cooking over a large portion of the Arctic, but most other forecasts don't.

Current forecasts take us to mid June, with melt momentum above average at best, and certainly not exceptional enough to be a serious challenge to the top contenders.  This applies to surface melt only, and not whatever is going on below the surface, although surface temps are going to influence bottom melt.  And as the world has warmed up since 2012 and 2007 there is much more scope to catch up, without a fast start on the surface.

EC 850hp 96 hours valid 12z Jun 10.  Selected as one of the coolest dates in the current forecast.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1540 on: June 07, 2019, 02:03:18 AM »
something to add for consideration:

- 1m thick ice with slightly less darkness mels a lot faster than 2m thick ice that is slightly darker

- fractured ice and small floe's have it much more difficult to develop and maintain melt-ponds.

- for me, to some significant extend, the increased number of leads and cracks and water between
floes are the new melt ponds, as i say, to some extend only but especially in the region where melt-ponding was huge at this time of the year, in those regions there is often no ice already now.
we should keep in mind that 2012 came from a very late and relatively high maximum, hence chance for developing melt-ponds under similar conditions was certainly higher. one has to consider as many factors and feedbacks as possible to get a good feel for a specific condition.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1541 on: June 07, 2019, 02:08:20 AM »
    A friend and colleague who is a PhD climate scientist, and whose work is regularly cited in this forum ... (but I'll leave his name out of it, even though Sean said it was OK to cite him... ooops)

    ....and who has watched Arctic weather for many years, brought the subject up at the end of a day-job phone conversation earlier this week.  He said it's hair raising, that he's never seen anything like what (as of Tue. June 4), was forecast for the next 10 days, esp. the latter part of that forecast as we head into mid-June.  One that I was not previously aware of was the amount of precipitable water in the air masses flowing into the Arctic.  e.g. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.pwtr

  And the story is not limited to the Arctic sea ice.

    One striking example as he walked me through a hall of horrors of forecast images was an image of the infamous ~97% Greenland surface-melt day (edit: days in July & August 2012.  The one that was so bizarre that NASA seriously thought the satellite sensor must have gone bad because such a reading was unprecedented and unfathomable.  (And which my friend on the phone said GFS foresaw at least a week in advance, just to defend the underloved GFS a bit.  BTW - GFS is getting the FV3 upgrade June 24!). 

     Then he took me to the 10-day 10th day Greenland surface temp image for this JUNE   And while not covering the almost the entire GIS as happened in the 2012 blasts, the 2019 forecast image was for a 10-day average, not a single day, and the 2019 image was for mid-June, not July or August.

    Another striking image was the projected very early 2019 timing for loss of ice/snow cover north of Greenland.

    While I'm a long time climate hawk and ASIB watcher, not being a climate scientist and being only a recent ASIF lurker with a post count even smaller then Trump's tiny little extremities (I'm talking about his hands, jeesh, get your mind out of the gutter!), it's been difficult for me to interpret the "contextual significance" for all the recent hubub about the 2019 melt season. 

     So for others of you watching the discussion from that perspective, the point of this post is that a PhD climate scientist with expertise and experience in Arctic weather (while acknowledging that forecasts can change, that June is not the whole summer, and that the Arctic is fickle) is having his own "Holy Cow" moments this week, to put it politely.  Stay tuned.  And vote climate. 
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 03:47:35 PM by Glen Koehler »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1542 on: June 07, 2019, 02:17:56 AM »
  just a quick report on dmi 80 .. having risen above zero a week early  there was no update on Thursday .. immaculate timing :) .. b.c. 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1543 on: June 07, 2019, 02:25:28 AM »
Thanks for the interesting post Glen.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1544 on: June 07, 2019, 02:27:56 AM »
Oren beat me to it.  Thanks Glen.  That is very interesting.   Now we will hold our breath and see what happens.

pccp82

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1545 on: June 07, 2019, 02:34:42 AM »
@ Glen:

minor correction, but the Greenland Ice Sheet event in 2012 was on or about July 11-12.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/summer-2012-brought-record-breaking-melt-greenland.

I have been a lurker here for a long time, and every year these doom forecasts get posted that are outside the effective range, and seemingly the optimal melting conditions never come to pass when the date comes....and when they do come, its too late in the season to be an x factor.

we may not be so fortunate this year....so there is a curiosity to see what could happen.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1546 on: June 07, 2019, 03:05:58 AM »
There's certainly no shortage of anticipation of what the near term will bring.

To be honest, I'm kinda hoping for an epically shitty summer. I want climate change to be first and foremost on US voters minds when they decide who to vote for in 2020. We need a good whipping to get the message.

Thanks to all who bring these weather reports to light.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1547 on: June 07, 2019, 03:50:47 AM »
The Eurasian coast from the Laptev east  has been warming up, readied for toasting over the next week. The northern  Lena delta is forecast by the EC to reach 9 today, 11 tomorrow, 19 on Sunday, and over 20C for the 3 days following, as is the entire coast to the east. And that heat is not confined to ground level, southerlies will bring air at similar temps at the 900hPa level and even higher, that will progressively obliterate the cold in the arctic Ocean atmosphere, if its to be believed in a week the only sub 0C air at 800 hPa there will be blobs around a couple of lows. Snow on the ice is going to be wiped out for hundreds of km to sea. And the low setting up the air flow will be blowing 30 knot warm northerlies directling the ice front east of FJI to doom in the Barents Sea

I've attached surface temp maps from ECMWF/Windy for 2, 4 and 6 days out, and in a following post 900hPa charts from about 4 days and  about a week as the insane sequence is set to climax(according to forecast - some of this is far off, so apologies, but these dire forecasts have been working out, with the EC getting progressively worse as the days draw nearer rather than the GFS proving insane).

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1548 on: June 07, 2019, 03:54:07 AM »
Windy 900 hPA forecasts showing huge mass of warm air entering the basin, as discussed in the previous post

petm

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1549 on: June 07, 2019, 04:04:43 AM »
Chukchi SSTs (among others) really heated up in the last few days.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php