ECMWF weather forecast is very interesting right now. A cyclone is going to churn up the Beaufort slush, transport towards the Greenland Sea and especially the Barentsz Sea continues, and will be intensified even by a relatively large cyclone that is said to reach 972 hPa on D5. This cyclone will also pull in lots of more warm air from Siberia, and further increase the open water in the Laptev Sea, while pushing ice away from the ESS coast.
The question is what will come after this. If we return to the set-up with high pressure dominating over the Beaufort Sea, 2019 will definitely end up in the Top 3. But I would be surprised if it doesn't end up in the Top5 already.
Yes, I totally agree with you, Neven. Although we cannot precisely predict whether the minimum area will break record, the upper boundary of minimum sea ice area is so obvious that this year will not good. And I came up with a simple melting ice heat transfer correlation. It is rough but is proper to deliver my view.
Q=h*delta T* A
Q is the heat the ice received
h is the overal heat transfer coefficient covering all the factors, such as solar radiation, wind, currents
delta T is the average temperature difference between air and ice temperature
A is the heat transfer area.
A sunny day (no high speed wind)
delta T is large (supposing deltaT=3)
h is small (supposing h=1)
A do not change (supposing A=1)
So the Q=3*1*1=3
A warm day ( with storm weather)
delta T is not so large (Supposing deltaT=1.5)
h is big because of turbulence(supposing h=3)
A depends on the thickness of ice(supposing ice is thin and easily be fractured A=1.5) then Q=1.5*3*1.5=6.75
(supposing the ice is strong A do not change A=1)
Q=1.5*3*1=4.5
A cold day (with storm)
delta T is small (Supposing deltaT=0.5)
h is big because of turbulence(supposing h=3)
A did not change so much (supposing A=1)
Q=0.5*3*1=1.5
So it is interesting to see the power of warm storm(2012 GAC)affects the melting ice, also the power of sunny weather (2007 extremely hot arctic summer), and the power of relative cold storm( 2016 stormy weather in arctic, the temperature in July and August is not warm even, but the ice is so thin and could be easily fractured) .
What I want to mention is that once the ice becomes thin and easily fractured, the storm becomes so important to influence the arctic rather than sunny weather. More storms, larger theat transfer coefficent h, and larger heat transfer area A, you do not need to beg the arctic will cool down tremendously becasue of global warming!, thus delta T will not be too small. So let us wait for the storm in ARCTIC!