Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 1212069 times)

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 246
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1650 on: June 09, 2019, 11:44:19 PM »
The fast ice at Barrow doesn't appear as resilent as in 2016.

it will be gone very soon, one morning we wake up and it will be no more, i predict within days, rather than weeks.

my guess: 3-6 days from now but that's a guess based on the images of the webcam, one can't see the exact thickness.

that's almost 3 weeks, so i was of by quite some margin. i post this because forecasts and predictions should more often be verified after a while to get a feel and improve quality.

my prediction then was 3-6 days and now it's 16 days later and it can even take a few more.

 8)

It's definitely on the move right now. It looks like it's sliding eastward.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1651 on: June 10, 2019, 12:05:26 AM »
It looks like all the ice adjacent to Siberia is about to cave. The blue-ing over the past 24 hours has been phenomenal. And it was thinner than normal to begin with. I wonder if we see an area / extent cliff begin to develop in June as these peripheral areas (next to Siberia and elsewhere) begin to fail simultaneously.

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 141
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1652 on: June 10, 2019, 01:48:50 AM »
The Hudson is very blue too, and will probalbly start adding into the extent drop offs.  However, if that low hits the Beaufort it will disperse a lot of ice and keep the numbers higher. 

Overall, things seem to continue to look bad for the ice, but will we see a big cliff?  Only time will tell ....

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 181
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3105
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1654 on: June 10, 2019, 03:09:05 AM »
Even the cracked floe near the lower left corner cracked further during the GIF.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

ReverendMilkbone

  • New ice
  • Posts: 50
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1655 on: June 10, 2019, 05:15:22 AM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

wallen

  • New ice
  • Posts: 47
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1656 on: June 10, 2019, 07:42:50 AM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

Can add to that Bolshay Udina volcano in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Looks like it will erupt. It's postion relative to the Bering strait is more interesting.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 792
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 400
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1657 on: June 10, 2019, 08:19:10 AM »
Thanks ReverendMilkbone, the Mt Sinabung eruption is interesting.

It turns out that this might be expected to have only a negligible effect on the climate though. I base that on this tweet from volcanologist Simon Carn, reporting that only 11 kT of released SO2 has been detected: https://twitter.com/simoncarn/status/1137833523191066624

For comparison, the 1991 Mt Pinatubo released about 20 MT of SO2, so ~2000x times as much. That cooled global temperatures by about 0.4 degrees C, for about 2 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo#Global_environmental_effects

There may be other factors in play but I presume that this eruption should have effects around 3 orders of magnitude down on that from the Pinatubo eruption, so negligible.


As Wallen has just indicated, volcanic ash - whether blocking the sunlight or darkening the Arctic ice - is a separate issue. Mt Sinabung is in Sumatra, Indonesia, so a long way from the Arctic.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 08:26:05 AM by slow wing »

ArcticMelt2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1658 on: June 10, 2019, 09:10:55 AM »


Quote
More than 22% of the Beaufort Sea on June 7 was open water (≤15% ice concentration) in @NSIDC data, most for the date. Between 1979 and 1996 there were 7 years when at NO point in the summer was there this much open water. #akwx #Arctic #seaice @Climatologist49 @ajatnuvuk @ZLabe


Viggy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1659 on: June 10, 2019, 10:16:32 AM »
Laptev, ESS and Greenland coasts are getting (and will continue to get) absolutely blow-torched



And these massive thermal anomalies seem to be persisting through next 10 days.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1660 on: June 10, 2019, 11:16:05 AM »
Laptev, ESS and Greenland coasts are getting (and will continue to get) absolutely blow-torched

Case in point:

Eco-Author

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 105
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1661 on: June 10, 2019, 11:24:21 AM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

The three-month eruption in Hawaii last year was thought to release so much SO2 as to affect Cali. weather this year.  People don't realize we don't need a 'SUPER-VOLCANO' to create 'years-without-summer' as did happen three to four times in the last three hundred years alone.  Yeah, Climate change may be bad... but a single 'non-super-volcano' could wipe us out practically overnight - At any time!
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1662 on: June 10, 2019, 11:58:27 AM »
ECMWF weather forecast is very interesting right now. A cyclone is going to churn up the Beaufort slush, transport towards the Greenland Sea and especially the Barentsz Sea continues, and will be intensified even by a relatively large cyclone that is said to reach 972 hPa on D5. This cyclone will also pull in lots of more warm air from Siberia, and further increase the open water in the Laptev Sea, while pushing ice away from the ESS coast.

The question is what will come after this. If we return to the set-up with high pressure dominating over the Beaufort Sea, 2019 will definitely end up in the Top 3. But I would be surprised if it doesn't end up in the Top5 already.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

BenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 282
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1663 on: June 10, 2019, 12:12:07 PM »
As well as the ESS/Laptev, melt ponding has really picked up in Hudson Bay over the past day or so:



Not too relevant to what happens in the CAB at the end of the melt season, but should start contributing even more to the daily melt figures.

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1664 on: June 10, 2019, 12:30:22 PM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

The three-month eruption in Hawaii last year was thought to release so much SO2 as to affect Cali. weather this year.  People don't realize we don't need a 'SUPER-VOLCANO' to create 'years-without-summer' as did happen three to four times in the last three hundred years alone.  Yeah, Climate change may be bad... but a single 'non-super-volcano' could wipe us out practically overnight - At any time!

The answer , apparently, is No! ?

NASA AIRS sat did not see enough SO2 in the column to impact climate?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1665 on: June 10, 2019, 12:33:09 PM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

The three-month eruption in Hawaii last year was thought to release so much SO2 as to affect Cali. weather this year.  People don't realize we don't need a 'SUPER-VOLCANO' to create 'years-without-summer' as did happen three to four times in the last three hundred years alone.  Yeah, Climate change may be bad... but a single 'non-super-volcano' could wipe us out practically overnight - At any time!

The answer , apparently, is No! ?

NASA AIRS sat did not see enough SO2 in the column to impact climate?
Also Kilauea definitely did not inject past the tropopause, which is required for non-localized SO2 impacts...

Agung and the Kamchatka volcanoes DID break the tropopause last year, however, as Sinabung has this year (although as posted, its observed SO2 contribution has been fairly small).

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1666 on: June 10, 2019, 12:43:48 PM »
ECMWF weather forecast is very interesting right now. A cyclone is going to churn up the Beaufort slush, transport towards the Greenland Sea and especially the Barentsz Sea continues, and will be intensified even by a relatively large cyclone that is said to reach 972 hPa on D5. This cyclone will also pull in lots of more warm air from Siberia, and further increase the open water in the Laptev Sea, while pushing ice away from the ESS coast.

The question is what will come after this. If we return to the set-up with high pressure dominating over the Beaufort Sea, 2019 will definitely end up in the Top 3. But I would be surprised if it doesn't end up in the Top5 already.
Yes, I totally agree with you, Neven. Although we cannot precisely predict whether the minimum area will break record, the upper boundary of minimum sea ice area is so obvious that this year will not good. And I came up with a simple melting ice heat transfer correlation. It is rough but is proper to deliver my view.
Q=h*delta T* A
Q is the heat the ice received
h is the overal heat transfer coefficient covering all the factors, such as solar radiation, wind, currents
delta T is the average temperature difference between air and ice temperature
A is the heat transfer area.

A sunny day (no high speed wind)
delta T is large (supposing deltaT=3)
h is small (supposing h=1)
A do not change (supposing A=1)

So the Q=3*1*1=3

A warm day ( with storm weather)
delta T is not so large (Supposing deltaT=1.5)
h is big because of turbulence(supposing h=3)
A depends on the thickness of ice(supposing ice is thin and easily be fractured A=1.5) then Q=1.5*3*1.5=6.75
(supposing the ice is strong A do not change A=1)
Q=1.5*3*1=4.5

A cold day (with storm)
delta T is small (Supposing deltaT=0.5)
h is big because of turbulence(supposing h=3)
A did not change so much (supposing A=1)
Q=0.5*3*1=1.5

So it is interesting to see the power of warm storm(2012 GAC)affects the melting ice, also the power of sunny weather (2007 extremely hot arctic summer), and the power of relative cold storm( 2016 stormy weather in arctic, the temperature in July and August is not warm even, but the ice is so thin and could be easily fractured) .

What I want to mention is that once the ice becomes thin and easily fractured, the storm becomes so important to influence the arctic rather than sunny weather. More storms, larger theat transfer coefficent h, and larger heat transfer area A, you do not need to beg the arctic will cool down tremendously becasue of global warming!, thus delta T will not be too small. So let us wait for the storm in ARCTIC!


Paul

  • New ice
  • Posts: 44
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1667 on: June 10, 2019, 12:50:17 PM »
ECMWF weather forecast is very interesting right now. A cyclone is going to churn up the Beaufort slush, transport towards the Greenland Sea and especially the Barentsz Sea continues, and will be intensified even by a relatively large cyclone that is said to reach 972 hPa on D5. This cyclone will also pull in lots of more warm air from Siberia, and further increase the open water in the Laptev Sea, while pushing ice away from the ESS coast.

The question is what will come after this. If we return to the set-up with high pressure dominating over the Beaufort Sea, 2019 will definitely end up in the Top 3. But I would be surprised if it doesn't end up in the Top5 already.

To be fair, I think the models have really struggled in the last few days in terms of details of each run with quite alot of variability from run to run. What looks more certain is that the Western half of the basin looks cooler than the Eastern half of the basin and that is set to stay for a while.

No surprises seeing melt ponding ramping up across the ESS, I don't think the laptev bite willl alter too much as the winds are not looking as strong as first though but it will be interesting how arge those cracks get in the ESS.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6749
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1660
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1668 on: June 10, 2019, 01:24:51 PM »
GFS 5 Day forecast averages attached.

Apart from Western Siberia (by the Kara) real warmth on all the coastal fringe of the Arctic,

Something's gotta give?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1669 on: June 10, 2019, 01:46:13 PM »
I think we must get a cliff (in NSIDC area) like we have not seen in a while.
The SMOS plot at the SMOS thread already points downwards.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1670 on: June 10, 2019, 06:13:53 PM »
If and when this big block is gonna be swallowed by the Nares. Just when it is getting very close, I have the feeling the flow rate thru the channel has been reduced (ain't it?)

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1671 on: June 10, 2019, 06:27:26 PM »
Well, yes Sterks. Unless it cracks down before that.. If so, it would be a big loss of MYI going down through Nares strait.

Clenchie

  • New ice
  • Posts: 37
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1672 on: June 10, 2019, 06:46:31 PM »
If and when this big block is gonna be swallowed by the Nares. Just when it is getting very close, I have the feeling the flow rate thru the channel has been reduced (ain't it?)

At the current approach rate it should take a week to arrive.
Procrastination is......... er, tell you tomorrow.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1673 on: June 10, 2019, 09:58:28 PM »
Latest EC 12z op is good news for sea ice retention. If we are going to ser a pattern shift to low pressure dominated weather at the time of solstice melting momentum will slow down considerably. The EC 00z ensemble hade that solution.

If this comes true I think we can rule out a new record low. Melting momentum seems to be rather low at the inner part of CAB.

The biggest thing of concern this season should be the parts that will open up early, mainly Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS that can warm up a lot until refreezing.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1674 on: June 11, 2019, 12:38:06 AM »
Hi res Arctic Basin extent looks as though its heading into uncharted territory.

It still does. What's more Basin area seems poised to do likewise:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-10
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 108
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1675 on: June 11, 2019, 01:15:08 AM »
Hi res Arctic Basin extent looks as though its heading into uncharted territory.

It still does. What's more Basin area seems poised to do likewise:


Central Arctic Basin area, the most important region for the upcoming sea ice minimum, is breaking away from the post 2012 pack. Just not in the direction most on here thought it would.






ReverendMilkbone

  • New ice
  • Posts: 50
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1676 on: June 11, 2019, 02:03:40 AM »
Piomas ice anomaly for arctic for May 2019; crazy how you can see the effect of the ice stacking up on Svalbard, Zemlya Georga, and the October Revolution Islands.

What is the opposite of feeling warm and fuzzy?

Glen Koehler

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 116
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 109
  • Likes Given: 153
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1677 on: June 11, 2019, 02:03:51 AM »
     Just guessing, but i have to wonder if the CAB number is distorted by fractured mobile ice from peripheral seas getting pushed into the middle.  If so, then the higher CAB value is not necessarily an argument against new record low extent, area or volume this year.  In any case, it will be interesting to see status update after the heat forecast for Siberian coast over the next 10 days.  In other words, I think all bets are still on the table for 2019 melt season. 

     Again, just half-informed guessing, (but if the U.S. President can spew word salad without bothering to read, I should get a shot having at least read up on the topic  -- Don, if your listening I will pay for your subscription to the Arctic Sea Ice Forum). 

    What has me spooked about the Arctic sea ice this year in particular is that the "structural fundamentals" seem to falling apart - dramatic cumulative reduction of multi-year ice; apparent loss of the Beaufort Gyre as a nursery, and potentially it becoming a new killing zone; consistently mild (for the Arctic) winters for most of the years since 2004, and every year starting with 2014; apparently high ice mobility this year; suspicious indications that the polar cell is weakening and that weather patterns that bring warm air into the Arctic may be increasing etc.

   Thus, the threat is much broader and deeper than a temporarily warm forecast.  If I'm wrong about all or any of these, let me know.  I like to be an informed worrier. 

   (PS Slightly off topic, but the June 12-13 GFS shows potential GIS surface melt not far behind the epic July 11 and Aug. 6, 2012 blasts)

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3975
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 426
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1678 on: June 11, 2019, 02:49:26 AM »
Piomas ice anomaly for arctic for May 2019; crazy how you can see the effect of the ice stacking up on Svalbard, Zemlya Georga, and the October Revolution Islands.

What is the opposite of feeling warm and fuzzy?

What those anomalies demonstrate to me is the incredible mobility of Arctic ice as compared to the Arctic we used to know. The positive anomalies are racing for the Atlantic.

Pragma

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1679 on: June 11, 2019, 03:05:08 AM »
    What has me spooked about the Arctic sea ice this year in particular is that the "structural fundamentals" seem to falling apart - dramatic cumulative reduction of multi-year ice; apparent loss of the Beaufort Gyre as a nursery, and potentially it becoming a new killing zone; consistently mild (for the Arctic) winters for most of the years since 2004, and every year starting with 2014; apparently high ice mobility this year; suspicious indications that the polar cell is weakening and that weather patterns that bring warm air into the Arctic may be increasing etc.

   Thus, the threat is much broader and deeper than a temporarily warm forecast.  If I'm wrong about all or any of these, let me know.  I like to be an informed worrier. 

 

Welcome to my world Glen. I still have a ton to learn but I think your worries are well founded. One thing I was surprised at was how mobile the ice is, and was, going back in the satellite records. It is nowhere near as monolithic as I had expected (or assumed).

That said, the ice seems even more mobile now, so ice dynamics play a large part in understanding the various ice data. The numbers without context are of limited value. For example, there appears to be much more ice on the Atlantic side, hung up on various islands as another poster just observed. This would suggest lower melting rates than on the Pacific side, but if there is a steady flow of ice from the pole, it replaces any ice loss in that area, which could actually be melting faster.

I think the jet stream as we know it is on it's last legs as the loops get larger and slower due to the loss in temperature differential. Previous high CO2 conditions, such as we are moving into, had a much smaller temperature difference between the tropics and the poles.

Higher CO2 -> warmer earth -> Ice loss -> warmer arctic -> wilder Rossby wave swings -> Warmer arctic -> ice loss -> rinse and repeat. Google Jennifer Francis.

I also understand that there is a large blob of very warm water deeper in the Arctic Ocean, held down by the nature of thermoclines. FWIU, it is getting bigger, warmer and moving up in the water column. I also understand that it has more than enough sensible heat to wipe out any remaining ice.
 
I'm not sure that the fundamentals are falling apart, as much as they have been deteriorating gradually, but the whole picture is made blurry by the natural weather variation that can swamp the signal. The arctic has a weakened immune system and a warm summer is like a case of the flu, exposing the underlying conditions. Similarly, I think things could go awry suddenly and unexpectedly.

I may not have all of this right, so I welcome other posters to steer me straight.

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 141
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1680 on: June 11, 2019, 03:11:49 AM »
Piomas ice anomaly for arctic for May 2019; crazy how you can see the effect of the ice stacking up on Svalbard, Zemlya Georga, and the October Revolution Islands.

What is the opposite of feeling warm and fuzzy?

I'm not as big of a fan of Piomas as many on this forum are.  However, this map matches what I have been seeing for the last few months.

If it is even close to correct, that is a very bad sign for the ice this year, and into next year. 

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4526
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 900
  • Likes Given: 1299
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1681 on: June 11, 2019, 03:26:15 AM »
Central Arctic Basin area, the most important region for the upcoming sea ice minimum, is breaking away from the post 2012 pack. Just not in the direction most on here thought it would.
CAB area at this time of year is a proxy for the area north of the Barents and the Fram, as the rest of the CAB is still mostly 100% sea ice until the beginning of July. As this year the transpolar drift is back with a vengeance, it is no surprise that CAB area is staying on the high side. As the Chukchi + Beaufort deteriorate, it is expected that the CAB will be hit first by loss of ice from its Pacific side.

This is supported by the area numbers in the Barents and the Greenland Sea, both running high as well.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1682 on: June 11, 2019, 06:15:27 AM »
On Laptev Sea 2012 is still leading 2019. Just an observation, not making too much about it
Most of this year's loss is a result of export; the effect on Albedo is somewhat different, and unlike melt ponds, may have more of an impact later as a result of heat picked up by open water being applied to ice blown across it, or it being blown into the pack.

Some of the writing up-thread and elsewhere about late season Siberian snow pack slowing things down is very compelling.  Lots of "If"s still up in the air undecided.  If the Pacific side continues to disintegrate as fast as it was earlier, negative feedback from late season snow pack may end up being moot.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1683 on: June 11, 2019, 06:24:01 AM »
Thanks ReverendMilkbone, the Mt Sinabung eruption is interesting.

It turns out that this might be expected to have only a negligible effect on the climate though. I base that on this tweet from volcanologist Simon Carn, reporting that only 11 kT of released SO2 has been detected: https://twitter.com/simoncarn/status/1137833523191066624

<snippage>

There may be other factors in play but I presume that this eruption should have effects around 3 orders of magnitude down on that from the Pinatubo eruption, so negligible.

<snippage>


Yup; the current eruptions are VEI 3, 4 at most, and a minuscule fraction of what Pinatubo (VEI 6) dumped out.

Even if they were higher, they are too far out of the Arctic to really affect it.  Circulation from Kamchatka isn't really oriented to send a lot of ash north.  Most probably it would end up over here over the Pacific NW of North America.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 172
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1684 on: June 11, 2019, 06:35:19 AM »
<snip>
...(as the) Chukchi + Beaufort deteriorate, it is expected that the CAB will be hit first by loss of ice from its Pacific side.

This is supported by the area numbers in the Barents and the Greenland Sea, both running high as well.

High extent in the Barents and Greenland Sea now are not supportive of high CAB numbers or high total over-all numbers later in the Season.  The ice in both seas is now in a killing zone, and the extent in both is being supported by near continuous export.  Ice currently there will continue to melt well into October.
This space for Rent.

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1685 on: June 11, 2019, 06:58:01 AM »
I'm not saying the water there is a melt pond.

What i'm trying to say is that the freshwater coming from land might cause the same effect.

The physics as described is so that (fresh) water would penetrate the ice, refreeze on the bottom and therefore sealing it, causing the flow of water through the ice to stop.

If it's a melt pond or water coming from land, it could be the same physics at work here, no?

Ponds on the Siberian coastal ice are so deep in some places the past 2 days they are fooling the uni-Bremen sensors into seeing open water. How deep they are I have no idea, someone more knowledgable may be able to clarify. But its thick immobile coastal stuff, and visibly different to the pack offshore. For free floating floes there must be a maximum average depth for a given average thickness of ice, related to buoyancy. I imagine ridged ice can also be semi-covered in water even after the ponds are breached provided it retains structural integrity


oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4526
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 900
  • Likes Given: 1299
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1686 on: June 11, 2019, 07:01:06 AM »
The Laptev fast ice is about to take a major hit. While extent and area numbers may not change, ice thickness should drop sharply. While temps have been above zero for the past few days, and the melt ponds are everywhere, today sees the coastal temps rise to ~25Co, and southerly winds blowing onto the sea. I think something's gotta give soon.

Click to animate.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 03:41:19 PM by oren »

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1687 on: June 11, 2019, 07:10:11 AM »
I think we must get a cliff (in NSIDC area) like we have not seen in a while.
The SMOS plot at the SMOS thread already points downwards.

How soon that cliff will come I'm not sure. With export to the Barents and and low churning up the Beaufort this week extent losses may remain average for now especially if Hudson Bay holds up, like in the past few weeks. Disintegrating fast ice may be pushed into the Laptev bite. There will be plenty going on but it might not be immediately reflected in extent numbers

Edit: I misread your statement, which refers to area. Even there I think a lot of area will be marked for doom by the setup, but linger a while anyway. What happens to area immediately depends on how much mush melts now, The breakup and spread of fast ice could mask this a bit, given the 85% coverage required for area
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 07:19:02 AM by subgeometer »

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 442
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 377
  • Likes Given: 264
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1688 on: June 11, 2019, 07:55:36 AM »
June 6-10.

It begins.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4526
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 900
  • Likes Given: 1299
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1689 on: June 11, 2019, 07:58:59 AM »
June 6-10.

It begins.
The ESS/Laptev "open water" is actually melt ponds lakes fooling the satellite.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1690 on: June 11, 2019, 08:09:27 AM »
Maybe I'm just being dense, but there's something I don't understand. Jim Hunt and weatherdude88 both post graphs for the CAB, based on Wipneus' UH AMSR2 data. How can they look so vastly different?
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4526
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 900
  • Likes Given: 1299
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1691 on: June 11, 2019, 08:13:27 AM »
Maybe I'm just being dense, but there's something I don't understand. Jim Hunt and weatherdude88 both post graphs for the CAB, based on Wipneus' UH AMSR2 data. How can they look so vastly different?
Because Jim Hunt counts the "Inner Basin" per Wipneus' definition including the CAB, Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, and Laptev.
Weatherdude posted just the CAB.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1692 on: June 11, 2019, 08:37:52 AM »
Thanks, oren, that must be it. I guess this shows the lack of melt ponds in the centre of the ice pack. Could be a dealbreaker, but we already knew that.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1693 on: June 11, 2019, 08:51:01 AM »
Jim Hunt and weatherdude88 both post graphs for the CAB, based on Wipneus' UH AMSR2 data. How can they look so vastly different?

See Oren's explanation. Here's "Snow White's" version of the CAB only, followed by the "Arctic Basin" including the other seas that (used to?) retain significant ice coverage in mid September:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Michael Hauber

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1694 on: June 11, 2019, 08:54:27 AM »
A tale of two Arctics.  Warm air has pushed into Siberian and Laptev sectors in a big way with serious surface melting.  Beyond that the Arctic is mild with minimal surface melting.  Beaufort amazes me with many large floes and little to no small floes - Little visible sign of melting but plenty of open water.

Forecasts show a strong temperature contrast with the coolest air still at -8C at 850HP according to GFS, and the warmest air above +12C.  Definitely one of the larger temperature contrasts I've seen.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Sterks

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1695 on: June 11, 2019, 10:08:02 AM »
Jim Hunt and weatherdude88 both post graphs for the CAB, based on Wipneus' UH AMSR2 data. How can they look so vastly different?

See Oren's explanation. Here's "Snow White's" version of the CAB only, followed by the "Arctic Basin" including the other seas that (used to?) retain significant ice coverage in mid September:

I would like to point out as well that the differences in extent in the CAB at this time are due to shifts in the location of the Svalbard front. Years with no ice in Barentzs and little transport to Fram show as “low extent” in CAB, this year the opposite. Not that relevant. Another thing is area, but UH AMSR2 is not that sensitive to ponds anyway, so the lack or not in CAB does not make much difference for UH area.

In summary, another misleading point by the dude 88.

Edit: oh, I see Oren made similar comment but much better explained a few posts above.
And others too. Man I am dense. Well, leaving it for abundance of argument.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 10:27:56 AM by Sterks »

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 890
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 259
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1696 on: June 11, 2019, 10:39:14 AM »
I notice this year has been keeping 2012 company at the top of the CAB charts .. so any arguement that this position now suggests a low melt later does not hold water .
  To have low CAB area later , export and thus ice area will be high on the Atlantic side . This ice will be gone and the mush left in it's place will be melting . Then we will see .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1697 on: June 11, 2019, 01:06:34 PM »
I would like to point out as well that the differences in extent in the CAB at this time are due to shifts in the location of the Svalbard front. Years with no ice in Barentzs and little transport to Fram show as “low extent” in CAB, this year the opposite.

The state of play on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. Note that this one is area rather than extent:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 782
  • Likes Given: 164
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1698 on: June 11, 2019, 03:12:08 PM »
Mercator (model) sea surface temperature (0m) may1-jun10, pacific side.

cavitycreep

  • New ice
  • Posts: 18
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1699 on: June 11, 2019, 03:27:53 PM »
Arctic sea ice concentration, May 28 to June 10
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 03:54:28 AM by cavitycreep »