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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1700 on: June 11, 2019, 03:31:33 PM »
The Laptev fast ice is about to take a major hit. While extent and area numbers may not change, ice thickness should drop sharply. While temps have been above zero for the past few days, and the melt ponds are everywhere, today sees the coastal temps rise to ~25C, and southerly winds blowing onto the sea. I think something's gotta give soon.

Agreed.  And, if I may, three additions... 
== The Laptev fast ice has been under almost continuous sunshine for the past week (a quick scan of recent Worldview images shows this).  Insolation is perhaps as important as any other factor now the meltponds have formed. 
== The Bremen AMSR2 image from today shows the coastal fast ice in the Laptev as being open water.  Plainly it is not, but to me this indicates that there is a LOT of surface liquid water on top of the fast ice. 
== Nullschool predicts the general pattern of warm winds pouring over the ice from a toasty central Siberia will continue for the next few days.   I do not know if clouds will arrive to interrupt the Laptev's sunbathing, but with winds coming from a central continental area it at least seems a reasonable bet that the sunny, clear conditions will continue to predominate for a while over the Laptev and part of the ESS.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 06:12:28 PM by Pagophilus »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1701 on: June 11, 2019, 03:41:14 PM »
At 12:00 UTC the dew point was +5°C on Kotelny Island.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1702 on: June 11, 2019, 03:57:07 PM »
Is this immense  pool cause by an overabundance of snow over the fast ice? Worldview yesterday clearly shows very white spots near the wet ice, and had a look at Sentinel 2 images where it is even clearer (will attach asap)
This is consistent with what some have been saying about a nice snow layer over ice causing the melting delay in general.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1703 on: June 11, 2019, 04:48:36 PM »
I also understand that there is a large blob of very warm water deeper in the Arctic Ocean, held down by the nature of thermoclines. FWIU, it is getting bigger, warmer and moving up in the water column. I also understand that it has more than enough sensible heat to wipe out any remaining ice.

I may not have all of this right, so I welcome other posters to steer me straight.
I don't think it is possible for warmer water to move up the water column while there is surface ice and/or the thermocline is able to form. Here is an example of temperature profiles (0-200m) from two whoi itp buoys from 2014 and 2019. The beginning of itp77's drift path is similar to the end of itp110.
I would say the warmer, more saline, water has to move down the water column rather than up.
Wider conclusions probably shouldn't be drawn from this data without further study of other buoy data.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 05:14:15 PM by uniquorn »

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1704 on: June 11, 2019, 05:55:51 PM »

I don't think it is possible for warmer water to move up the water column while there is surface ice and/or the thermocline is able to form.

I have tried to find the original paper from Yale and failed so far. That said, I could have phrased that better. IIRC, the concern in the article was that the lower, warmer stratum was getting warmer and thicker and the upper layer was getting warmer, thinner and saltier.

I find thermoclines/haloclines somewhat magical by their ability to stay separate, but, AFAIK, it comes down to density. My impression was that once the ice goes, there is a relatively small volume of water hovering around freezing that will be heated up quickly.

If the upper layer increases in temperature and salinity, due to ice loss, then a merging of the two could occur. Understanding the exact process is above my pay grade, but the takeaway was that this shift would seriously affect/delay ice formation in the fall.

If anyone has more info on the situation I'd be happy to read it.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1705 on: June 11, 2019, 06:27:11 PM »

I don't think it is possible for warmer water to move up the water column while there is surface ice and/or the thermocline is able to form.

I have tried to find the original paper from Yale and failed so far. That said, I could have phrased that better. IIRC, the concern in the article was that the lower, warmer stratum was getting warmer and thicker and the upper layer was getting warmer, thinner and saltier.

I find thermoclines/haloclines somewhat magical by their ability to stay separate, but, AFAIK, it comes down to density. My impression was that once the ice goes, there is a relatively small volume of water hovering around freezing that will be heated up quickly.

If the upper layer increases in temperature and salinity, due to ice loss, then a merging of the two could occur. Understanding the exact process is above my pay grade, but the takeaway was that this shift would seriously affect/delay ice formation in the fall.

If anyone has more info on the situation I'd be happy to read it.

The upper layer 'freshness;' is maintained with low salt by a combination of input from the large rivers particularly over the Siberian shelf, and by the freeze/thaw of sea ice. As sea water freezes it releases brine, which makes the top 100 m or so of the ocean turn over to form the mixed layer, in the summer the ice melts forming a 'cap' of freshwater that warms up so its much less dense than the underlying layers. Note that the amount of salt in the water has a much greater impact on density than the temperature.

One threat to the pycnocline is from incursion of salty warm water along the Atlantic front. There is evidence that density differences maintaining the stratification have been breaking now, largely because of lack of sea ice in the Barents Sea (that may reverse, now we actually had winter ice cover over the shelf this year).

There was a recent paper showing that the Pacific is also having an effect, with warmer water below the halocline in the Beaufort Gyre.

The thin first year ice is also more briny than multi year ice so you could hypothesis that the overall input of fresh water into preserving the halocline has been reduced as the ice has declined in age.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1706 on: June 11, 2019, 06:46:11 PM »
A basic display of itp110 temperature/density in the beaufort here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg191102.html#msg191102

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1707 on: June 11, 2019, 06:48:21 PM »
I have tried to find the original paper from Yale and failed so far. That said, I could have phrased that better. IIRC, the concern in the article was that the lower, warmer stratum was getting warmer and thicker and the upper layer was getting warmer, thinner and saltier.

I found this one in my Pocket >> https://physicsworld.com/a/strength-of-arctic-halocline-indicates-climate-change/

Is it that what you mean?

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1708 on: June 11, 2019, 06:55:16 PM »
The Laptev fast ice is about to take a major hit. While extent and area numbers may not change, ice thickness should drop sharply. While temps have been above zero for the past few days, and the melt ponds are everywhere, today sees the coastal temps rise to ~25C, and southerly winds blowing onto the sea. I think something's gotta give soon.

Laptev and Chukchi already seem to be taking it:

The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Retron

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1709 on: June 11, 2019, 07:52:55 PM »
The 12z GFS has really gone off on one at the day 10 mark - showing mid 30s temperatures (celcius, that is!) adjacent to what presently is fast ice on the shores of the Laptev.

https://pamola.um.maine.edu/wx_frames/gfs/arc-lea/t2/2019-06-11-12z/80.png

(or via https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2 if that direct link above doesn't work - choose the 12z run of the 11th June).

I'd take that the same way as I would any forecast at 10 days, i.e. with a massive pile of salt, but nonetheless it's quite amazing to see. I can't imagine any ice lasting for long with that sort of heat blowing over it...


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1710 on: June 11, 2019, 08:16:40 PM »
A fine (false colour) view of the Siberian coast from the Suomi satellite today:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-11
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1711 on: June 11, 2019, 08:22:46 PM »
A fine (false colour) view of the Siberian coast from the Suomi satellite today:


I fear the fast ice will be going--fast.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1712 on: June 11, 2019, 08:36:18 PM »
Rox: Thanks for taking the time to explain that. It's as I understood, but with much better detail about the mechanism. I was wondering about the various factors in density. The dominant salty FYI does not bode well. Pycnocline? Well, that's a new one. Would I be right in calling that the interface between two disparate layers?

uniquorn: It took me a while to suss out the depth charts but it's a bit clearer now. That whole thread is pretty information dense. I don't understand the deep "holes" which seem to punch through the layers. Little by little, I'll get this. Thanks.

FlowerPower ;-) Thanks for the link. I think what I had read was from Yale, but yours seems much better, in that it is much more on point. More reading...


uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1713 on: June 11, 2019, 09:48:04 PM »
@Pragma, updated charts for whoi itp110, including density, here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg205032.html#msg205032

Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1714 on: June 11, 2019, 09:54:20 PM »
Please take a look on Hudson Bay ice. It seems to thin rapidly. Open water until end of June there?

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1715 on: June 11, 2019, 10:03:49 PM »

If anyone has more info on the situation I'd be happy to read it.

I think this article from Climate Policy gives a nice overview: 

Quote
Cold Halocline

Fri, 27 May 2016 | Canadian Arctic

The cold halocline is a water layer within the Arctic Ocean that lies below the very fresh surface waters and above the saltier Atlantic layer. Where it is well developed, its low temperature serves to insulate the overlying sea ice from the heat residing in the Atlantic layer.

. . .

Just above the halocline lies the ocean surface layer, which is constrained to be at or very close to the freezing point where it is in contact with sea ice. This 10-60 m thick layer is not very dense, mostly because of discharge from large rivers in Siberia and North America.

. . .

Below the surface layer, salinity increases downward but the temperature stays near the freezing point. This is the cold halocline.

. . .

Below the halocline, at depths of 150-800 m, lies the warm and salty Atlantic layer. This layer fills the entire Arctic Ocean, from its origins in the Norwegian Sea to its exit through Fram Strait into the Greenland Sea. Its salinity is typically 34.8-35.0, and its temperature varies from about 3°C north of Svalbard to less than 0°C north of Canada. Since the freezing point of this water is about -1.8°C, even the coolest Atlantic layer water is a few degrees above freezing. Although this seems small, it represents enough heat to completely melt away the overlying sea ice pack if it were somehow able to mix up into the surface layer.

The most vigorous source of mixing in the Arctic Ocean is generally from surface processes such as winds, sea ice motion, and the sinking of heavy waters formed by air cooling or sea ice growth. In the absence of a cold halocline, such processes might easily mix the Atlantic layer heat up into the surface layer and thus bring this heat into contact with the sea ice pack. This generally does not happen, however, because the halocline represents a stable barrier to surface mixing, that is, it is hard to penetrate this gradient in density. Even if the surface mixing were vigorous enough to penetrate into the halocline, it would only entrain water that is quite cool, and thus have little thermal effect on the sea ice pack. This inhibition of upward heat flux from the warm Atlantic layer is the main physical consequence of the cold halocline.

Recent studies have shown that Arctic wind and surface air temperature patterns vary substantially on a multiyear time scale. These climate oscillations have affected the cold halocline by influencing where fresh surface waters circulate. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, an unusual wind pattern persisted that diverted river water away from the surface layer of the Amundsen Basin. This led to a retreat of the cold halo-cline from this area, leaving the surface layers directly exposed to the underlying warm Atlantic layer. This presumably is suppressed by the growth of wintertime sea ice in this area, but not for too long: the halocline began to rebuild as wind patterns shifted in the mid-1990s. If such climate oscillations persist or amplify in the future, then the Atlantic layer heat may play an increasing role in the ocean surface energy balance, that is, in keeping the sea ice pack thinner than it is now. This is the present situation in the Antarctic Ocean, which lacks a cold halocline and thus has a thinner sea ice pack that largely melts away every summer.

https://www.climate-policy-watcher.org/canadian-arctic/cold-halocline.html


 

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1716 on: June 11, 2019, 10:12:31 PM »
That's excellent! Thanks.

The question I wonder, along with likely many others, is how much of these shifting patterns is due to AGW and how much is just part of the AMOC, PDO and THC in general?

What a Gordian knot!

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1717 on: June 11, 2019, 10:29:00 PM »
Despite cold airmass temperature (below -5°C at 850 hPa), it seems a significant rain event occured over Canadian archipelago, bringing darker blue colors on the 7-2-1 bands :

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-06-11-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2881554.165245775,-1905727.5617934137,559085.8347542249,-83007.56179341371

compared to 2 days ago :

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-06-09-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2881554.165245775,-1905727.5617934137,559085.8347542249,-83007.56179341371

I don't know if this observation is valid, but SYNOPs from Grise Fiord are quite crazy :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71971&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2019&mes=06&day=11&hora=20

Despite this, all other observations shows at least a couple of millimeters of rain or (extremely...) wet snow, like Pond Inlet who get its monthly rain in 24h :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71576&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2019&mes=06&day=11&hora=20

Or other stations to the West

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71592&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2019&mes=06&day=11&hora=20

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71580&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2019&mes=06&day=11&hora=20

Etc...

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1718 on: June 11, 2019, 10:57:56 PM »
  NSIDC dropping 217,000 yesterday is a suprise .. I guess the peripheral seas are doing their bit . However it will be no suprise to see high levels of melt continue . The next few days bring more heat and more export .
   Zack Labe's monthly air temp. ranking shows March was 5th warmest in the Arctic in 41 years . April was 3rd warmest and May was 1st warmest .  There has not been a top 3 June or July since 2012 .. the last two Julys rank 29 and 30 .. This I consider was rather like playing russian roulette twice with 5 bullets and one blank .. and firing the blank both times ! The odds this year are unchanged (in theory) but a top 3 is more likely .
 June already looks well under way toward a top 3 too .. momentum is certainly in this direction .
  b.c.

   p.s.   Hi Aslan , :) , I would expect rain from -5 @ 850hpa here in N.I. .. even -8'C uppers does not guarantee snow . I guess this is true up North too ..

 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1719 on: June 11, 2019, 11:17:20 PM »


   p.s.   Hi Aslan , :) , I would expect rain from -5 @ 850hpa here in N.I. .. even -8'C uppers does not guarantee snow . I guess this is true up North too ..

 

Hello ! Yes rain is not really a surprise, even tough isothermal profile are still like even in June in this region, but I believe that rain totals are still quite noteworthy for such an airmass, and even more in the high Arctic. I was probably terse, but I wanted to signal that the airmass was notably moist and well mixed for the Arctic and that consequences of this cyclone was probably not to slow down the melt.
I think I can add that, even though I don't know the 24 hours rainfall record for Grise Fiord ; records in June are 20 mm for Resolute and 21 mm for Pond Inlet for comparison.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1720 on: June 11, 2019, 11:32:13 PM »
Ascat (heavy contrast) sep mar21-jun10. Weather interference becoming more dominant.
edit: Surface features will probably be 'washed out' soon. Some recent days have poor data and best quality days have been duplicated so there is some 'stutter'
The old ice edge is very close the the pole now. Looks like a rain front across the Beaufort at day142 as it leaves a persistent mark on the ice. A-Team's description is better here...https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg204548.html#msg204548
Quote
The last three weeks of Ascat are also showing weather streaking across the scene, sometimes leaving permanent effects on radar brightness (ice near-surface dielectric), both lightning (less polarizable constituents) and darkening (more saline or more liquid).
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 12:36:57 PM by uniquorn »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1721 on: June 11, 2019, 11:44:51 PM »
  Now I am confused .. with all that blue ice in ESS and Laptev , I went looking for meltponds first on Worldview then with Sentinel . I could not find any !
  What I see is clear blue ice with multiple fractures showing white .. not unlike the fractures showing on Uniquorn's ascat mp4 above just at a very different scale . Where are the melt ponds .. and why are they not visible to me ? .. Jim Hunt ? .. Anyone ? .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1722 on: June 11, 2019, 11:48:34 PM »
Uniquorn, thank you for that fascinating animation. Export of Nares and Fram so far looks massive and the western part of the central solid ice is drifting southwards into oblivion (how strong was this year's export compared to other years?). Add the upcoming melt and the ice could be in serious trouble.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1723 on: June 12, 2019, 12:18:57 AM »
Wipneus describes Fram volume export as near normal for the month based on piomas data. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg203472.html#msg203472.
Nares has been open for longer this season than most years. I'm not aware of any recent measurements/calculations. edit: oren posted this https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg201330.html#msg201330 and I think there are some replies.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 01:05:02 AM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1725 on: June 12, 2019, 01:30:38 AM »
Smoke from fires in central Siberia headed directly towards the Laptev, today on Worldview.  There is a distinct possibility these fires could get larger in the coming days, given the hot and sunny conditions.  I know this happens every year, but these seem to me to be the first large smoke plumes this year.

What will be the net effect on the ice?  Will the smoke tend to cool the ice beneath it by reflecting radiation back into space, or will soot from the snow settle on the ice, darkening it and accelerating melting?  Not rhetorical questions... I would like to know.  Does it depend on whether rain/snow takes the soot out of the atmosphere and deposits the soot on the ice?

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1726 on: June 12, 2019, 01:31:48 AM »

One threat to the pycnocline is from incursion of salty warm water along the Atlantic front. There is evidence that density differences maintaining the stratification have been breaking now, largely because of lack of sea ice in the Barents Sea (that may reverse, now we actually had winter ice cover over the shelf this year).


On the last-stand front, I'm guessing that the Greenland ice cap might be freshening things up for quite some time?

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1727 on: June 12, 2019, 01:41:50 AM »
Ascat (heavy contrast, no mask) sep21-jun10.

Amazing, scary animation, Uniquorn.  Thank you.  Any sign of melting back that might have taken place on the Atlantic side seems completely overwhelmed/masked by the whole ice mass rotating and pouring through the Fram Strait and between Svalbard and FJL. 

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1728 on: June 12, 2019, 01:42:44 AM »
Hi Uniquorn .. the mp4 appeas to run from day 80 this year rather than from last September . I would greatly appreciate the full version as advertised :) . cheers !
  cheers Jim .. but still struggling .. or do the mps cover just a tiny fraction of area amongst the whitest areas while the general blue is total surface melt ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1729 on: June 12, 2019, 01:45:30 AM »
The drift is ripping off Barents ice off spitsbergen island.

jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1730 on: June 12, 2019, 03:20:12 AM »
Reposting a reference link I found and little table I made a few years ago, again.
Discusses loss rates in cm/day of ice as compared to temperature.  Not precise, but should be able to give us some sense of scale as to how fast we should expect ice to disappear at temperature.

____________________________________________________________________________
Time to trot this out again.  An excellent and old paper by someone trying to model, understand and quantify the effect of water temperature on ice melt. The temps here would apply to melt ponds, as the approximation for sea water should apply to the heating in the melt ponds, which could become quite a bit warmer than the ice they are sitting on. 

https://www.igsoc.org:8080/annals/1/igs_annals_vol01_year1980_pg119-122.pdf

The gist of the article can be summarized by this equation:

approximate sea ice melt rate (cm/day) =

.018 * ( H2O temp + 1.8 ) raised to the 1.5th power

A quick table (check my math... I could have munged the computations):

H2O Temp(c)   Melt rate/CM/Day
-1.5          0.03
-1            0.13
-0.5          0.27
0             0.43
0.5           0.63
1             0.84
1.5           1.08
2             1.33
2.5           1.61
3             1.89
3.5           2.20
4             2.51
4.5           2.85
5             3.19
5.5           3.55
6             3.92

« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 03:27:08 AM by jdallen »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1731 on: June 12, 2019, 03:22:47 AM »
Wipneus describes Fram volume export as near normal for the month based on piomas data.

In volume yes. But the ice around greenland is much thinner than in years past, thus more area exports due to the ice structure's fragility, and the volume ends up about the same.
big time oops

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1732 on: June 12, 2019, 06:06:19 AM »
There will be a storm in Beaufort. But at the same time, East Siberian Sea and Laptev will have temperatures around 5°C. Both don't look good.

So, an extent decrease in ESS and Laptev, at the same time than an extent increase in Beaufort?


P.S. Beaufort storm doesn't look that powerful now. Or I am wrong on my perception?
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 06:19:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1733 on: June 12, 2019, 07:12:37 AM »
Some sentinel images with what I think show meltponds, including on fairly small floes. 2 show the same region of the mushy ice north of the Laptev bite , with the close up at 300m to 1cm on screen - , showing the beginning of meltpond development there. Sentinel image swathes can be a few days old(I used the newest I could find), and I expect as the current set are refreshed things will have developed a way. The darker blotches I think are related to clouds. I also attached and image of the edge of the fast ice beyond the east of New Siberian Islands, with a lot of melt by the shore, and areas of ponding further out

For reference I also include a section of north central Hudson Bay which appears to show extensive ponding on very fragmented ice

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1734 on: June 12, 2019, 07:32:30 AM »
Satellite images have clearly become better or the data is nowadays interpreted better. i think those are meltponds and we don't anymore have to guess if they are open ocean or not. On the thicker sea ice (some 75 cm) on Baltic melt ponds can be at least 30 cm deep giving hard time for elder satellite imagery to see the underlying ice.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1735 on: June 12, 2019, 08:35:20 AM »
The ESS joining the Laptev, with "melt-pond blue" intensifying and spreading away from the coast in the past 3 days, and temperatures in Pevek hitting 18Co and expected to remain this abnormally high in the next few days, with southerly winds blowing offshore, and clear skies.
Click to animate.

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1736 on: June 12, 2019, 08:58:26 AM »
The Laptev is going to take it on the chin.  Look at those closely packed isobars, latest euro continues the push towards the Atlantic with the 970s cyclone, while keeping the Siberian side toasty.  The Beaufort low might pump some warmth into the CAA as well, as it stirs up the Beaufort sea, trading surface melt for bottom. 


« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 09:17:44 AM by JayW »
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1737 on: June 12, 2019, 09:21:01 AM »
Kotelny Island has the warmest weather before solstice in history. +14°C.

BenB

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1738 on: June 12, 2019, 09:56:09 AM »

approximate sea ice melt rate (cm/day) =

.018 * ( H2O temp + 1.8 ) raised to the 1.5th power

A quick table (check my math... I could have munged the computations):


The paper says: R = 1.8 x 10^-2 x (H2O temp + 1.80) ^1.5 where R is the melt rate in m/day.

Based on that, I think your numbers are out by one order of magnitude - shouldn't they be 10 times higher?

E.g. for H2O temp = 0, R = 0.018 x 1.8^1.5 = 0.018 x 2.4 = 0.043 m = 4.3 cm

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1739 on: June 12, 2019, 10:26:25 AM »
The ESS joining the Laptev, with "melt-pond blue" intensifying

Looks like this in M10 band (07.06. 12:45h to 12.06. 05:15h UTC). You can literally see the heat moving.

In this GIF, a lot of frames are skipped to erase the stills. Click to play!

Sambuccu

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1740 on: June 12, 2019, 10:59:59 AM »
Apparently, several (relatively modest ?) forest fires in Siberia close to the Laptev sea. Started recently (some visible smoke at least yesterday). Climatic conditions are particularly favorable to fires.
Smoke heading north, contrary to canadian fires in may, is visible over fast ice area.

What is the potential influence on arctic ice of such fires ? Could it really be harmful to ice ?

Edit : are there rules for images (max size...) on the forum ?



peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1741 on: June 12, 2019, 11:02:09 AM »
2012.6.12-2019.6.12 which one is worse
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 11:14:21 AM by peterlvmeng »

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1742 on: June 12, 2019, 11:05:20 AM »
.. sadly it's bleeding obvious .. especially in blue .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1743 on: June 12, 2019, 11:12:47 AM »
Thats a pretty serious cyclone forecast at about 72 hours, bottoming out at 966 by GFS and 972 on EC, and a fairly large circulation.  With the ongoing hot weather it looks like we are already on the strongest start to melt season in Laptev sector, or at least close to it.  So adding this to the mix could be rather significant.  I don't think the ice is as vulnerable to flash melting as it was in GAC 2012, at least in Laptev and Arctic Basin.  Barents and Kara would be more vulnerable.  Not sure what (if anything) the islands will do to reduce impact - blocking waves etc.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1744 on: June 12, 2019, 11:19:31 AM »
Edit : are there rules for images (max size...) on the forum?

Since you linked to an outside server, traffic isn't created on the forums server for showing this picture. I can't imagine there is a max size for this kind of posts.

When you upload media to the forum server, imho a file shouldn't be much over 2-3MB. This at least makes loading threads easier for people with slow or capped internet.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1745 on: June 12, 2019, 11:37:13 AM »
Thats a pretty serious cyclone forecast at about 72 hours, bottoming out at 966 by GFS and 972 on EC, and a fairly large circulation.  With the ongoing hot weather it looks like we are already on the strongest start to melt season in Laptev sector, or at least close to it.  So adding this to the mix could be rather significant.  I don't think the ice is as vulnerable to flash melting as it was in GAC 2012, at least in Laptev and Arctic Basin.  Barents and Kara would be more vulnerable.  Not sure what (if anything) the islands will do to reduce impact - blocking waves etc.

I think one of this biggest impacts is that the wind will be pushing ice toward the exit routes to the Atlantic.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1746 on: June 12, 2019, 12:10:56 PM »
10.06. vs. 12.06. - ESS

(Click to play)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1747 on: June 12, 2019, 12:23:37 PM »
Today's Terra technicolour (7-2-1) view of the Laptev Sea this morning (UTC)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1748 on: June 12, 2019, 01:05:39 PM »
The forecast isn't improving, to put it mildly. Large 972 hPa cyclone is going to do a number on the ice in the Kara, and pull the ice away even further from the coast in the Laptev (look at those isobars!), all the while importing massive heat from Siberia, and continuing transport towards the Atlantic. And to top it off, as if things weren't bad enough, the forecast is hinting towards high pressure taking over again on the Siberian side (and D7-10 have it spread towards the Beaufort after that).

If it can make up the lack of melting momentum so far, this year is a contender. July and August weather will then decide.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1749 on: June 12, 2019, 02:41:48 PM »
Thats a pretty serious cyclone forecast at about 72 hours, bottoming out at 966 by GFS and 972 on EC, and a fairly large circulation.  With the ongoing hot weather it looks like we are already on the strongest start to melt season in Laptev sector, or at least close to it.  So adding this to the mix could be rather significant.  I don't think the ice is as vulnerable to flash melting as it was in GAC 2012, at least in Laptev and Arctic Basin.  Barents and Kara would be more vulnerable.  Not sure what (if anything) the islands will do to reduce impact - blocking waves etc.

The warmest water in the Laptev Sea is already 4C(according to thECMWF and WindyTV and most of the bite above 1. If warm and hot  southerlies and clear skies continue, it could get quite warm by the start of August