Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 1193016 times)

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 224
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1850 on: June 14, 2019, 09:41:30 PM »
Global sea ice area for almost two months now in uncharted low territory.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

FishOutofWater

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 745
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1851 on: June 14, 2019, 10:24:09 PM »
Friv, no doubt that the weather under the upper low over the CAA is cool, but 850mb cool anomalies may be more anomalous than surface temperature anomalies. Unfortunately, we can't have much confidence in the GFS surface anomaly forecasts now because they were warmer than normal before the upgrade and we really don't know how the upgrade is performing yet.

What we need to do is look at the actual surface temperatures and melting conditions.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1852 on: June 14, 2019, 10:39:49 PM »
The gfs and euro diverge a bit after day 5.

The GFS model tries to bring a Transit Ridge over the Canadian Basin with some very warm air over the entire Arctic.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1853 on: June 14, 2019, 10:48:57 PM »
Friv, no doubt that the weather under the upper low over the CAA is cool, but 850mb cool anomalies may be more anomalous than surface temperature anomalies. Unfortunately, we can't have much confidence in the GFS surface anomaly forecasts now because they were warmer than normal before the upgrade and we really don't know how the upgrade is performing yet.

What we need to do is look at the actual surface temperatures and melting conditions.

You could be right.  Going off this image tho it appears albedo over the Western CAB is still high.

But there is distortion from clouds And ice in the clouds.

But the rest of the Arctic and much of Greenland shows surface melt.



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

uniquorn

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1555
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 756
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1854 on: June 15, 2019, 12:49:33 AM »
unihamburg amsr2uhh overlaid onto ascat with 100% ice (normally white) set to transparent. The amsr2 overlay is 70% transparent to allow other features of ascat to show through, notably greenland. It also helps to make the 'weather' over open water less distracting.
Similar to last year the wash of warm weather has revealed fractures in the older ice that were not visible previously.
jun1-13
thanks to A-Team for helpful hints, some of which need further work
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg205561.html#msg205561

« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 12:55:12 AM by uniquorn »

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1855 on: June 15, 2019, 12:52:43 AM »
WOW! This is amazing uniquorn!

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 792
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 399
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1856 on: June 15, 2019, 01:10:08 AM »
Similar to as posted above by b_lumenkraft. Terra satellite true colour image of Englefield Fjord. The red dot is the location of Qaanaaq, aka Thule.

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1857 on: June 15, 2019, 01:32:41 AM »
The low pushing the ice south in the Beaufort, is also pulling the edge of the CAB north, starting to peel it away from the CAA in the past 2 days. The animation shows june 12-14 on Worldview.

Edit: fixed CAB/CAA garbling
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 01:42:42 AM by subgeometer »

Rich

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1858 on: June 15, 2019, 02:25:00 AM »
We may be just a few days away from having an open water path from Canada all the way to the Laptev.

Choppy water on either end so bring your sea legs.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1859 on: June 15, 2019, 03:11:42 AM »
The ESS is taking a beating and the models show a continuous crushing over the ESS.

It takes a while for it to melt out.

We usually see a pattern change of some sort before the ESS can collapse in July.

Anyways I have always felt if the ESS collapsed in July there would be time to really warm up a large portion of water.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1815
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1860 on: June 15, 2019, 03:27:37 AM »
The ESS is taking a beating and the models show a continuous crushing over the ESS.

It takes a while for it to melt out.

We usually see a pattern change of some sort before the ESS can collapse in July.

Anyways I have always felt if the ESS collapsed in July there would be time to really warm up a large portion of water.

HYCOM shows very thin ice here. I could see ESS easily collapsing entirely by mid July.

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1861 on: June 15, 2019, 03:34:36 AM »

We usually see a pattern change of some sort before the ESS can collapse in July.

Anyways I have always felt if the ESS collapsed in July there would be time to really warm up a large portion of water.

I’m with you on this, and it is only June 14 so we are a long way from crunch time.  This season could turn out very mediocre if the weather changes in July.

However, I have been struggling all day to try to agree with you on the western Canadian Basin. It is not melting like the rest of the arctic, but it is broken and fragmented like I have never seen this early in the year.

We will see what happens with the low, but if the Russian side collapses and the weather stays pat, things are looking pretty bad. 

Again, it is only mid June and a big cold front could come in and change things like last year, but right now I think we are looking at a top 3.  Just my guess. 

Pagophilus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 287
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1862 on: June 15, 2019, 03:43:09 AM »
First it was the Laptev fast ice, then the ESS fast ice, and then some adjacent pack ice that went blue over the past week or so.  Now, under the relentless sun and warm winds of the past few days. it looks to my eye that almost the entire Laptev and East Siberian seas, up to 800 km from their shores, are beginning to take on a bluish tinge.  The Chukchi ice, where it is not already a muddy gray, is following suit.  The Worldview image attached from today has not been altered.   The blue is subtle -- I hope it is not just happening in my head.  The rest of the Arctic Ocean ice looks really white still, but be aware most of what we see in this image is clouds, not ice.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 03:57:15 AM by Pagophilus »

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1815
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 166
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1863 on: June 15, 2019, 04:08:23 AM »
The cyclone that rots offshore of Pakistan should inject substantial +500MB anomalies into the Laptev by D10. You can see it beginning on the 12z EURO's extended output but I bet it worsens as we approach 6/25. This could be a knockout blow, and I wouldn't be surprised if it combines with intense smoke from the wildfires now igniting in northern Siberia.


Rich

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1864 on: June 15, 2019, 04:47:49 AM »
First it was the Laptev fast ice, then the ESS fast ice, and then some adjacent pack ice that went blue over the past week or so.  Now, under the relentless sun and warm winds of the past few days. it looks to my eye that almost the entire Laptev and East Siberian seas, up to 800 km from their shores, are beginning to take on a bluish tinge.  The Chukchi ice, where it is not already a muddy gray, is following suit.  The Worldview image attached from today has not been altered.   The blue is subtle -- I hope it is not just happening in my head.  The rest of the Arctic Ocean ice looks really white still, but be aware most of what we see in this image is clouds, not ice.

Looking at today's GFS ice cover map, it appears that the entire Pacific side from Beaufort around to the Laptev is one shade darker than everything east of it.

What you are seeing is corroborated in at least one other place.

Regarding the protected area in W. basin that Friv is talking about. I can see what he's talking about and that there is no obvious threat there at the moment.

But everything else appears to be vulnerable including the southern and eastern portions of the Archipelago. One gets the feeling that the protected area might be small and lonely.

Aluminium

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 371
  • Likes Given: 261
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1865 on: June 15, 2019, 07:29:32 AM »
June 10-14.

2018.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 276
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1866 on: June 15, 2019, 07:47:14 AM »
June 10-14.
Dispersion to the left and to the right - and the "flashing on and off" of the large blue areas in the ESS are interesting.

Seems clear where the recent increases in extent are coming from.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1867 on: June 15, 2019, 08:17:19 AM »
The circled area is the place with less melt pond through visualization. The melt pond in 2012 is widely spread and darker. The melt pond in 2016 is not as dark as 2012  but also widely spread. The melt pond in 2019 is not so widely spread as 2016 and 2012 but some region in ESS, Laptev sea is even darker. Also the establishment of melt pond in 2019 is so quickly within a week.

BenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 282
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1868 on: June 15, 2019, 08:21:29 AM »
The Chukchi is looking particularly bad, and this is one of the main reasons:



Those anomalies are equivalent to up to 5C, which can cause a lot of damage.

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1869 on: June 15, 2019, 08:29:55 AM »
The Chukchi is looking particularly bad, and this is one of the main reasons:



Those anomalies are equivalent to up to 5C, which can cause a lot of damage.

Thanks,BenB. I presume this is the evidence of albedo warming. The Beaufort sea also shows the open water effect in the heat accumulation.

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1870 on: June 15, 2019, 08:53:50 AM »
Daily Mean Temperatures in the north of the 80th northern parallel.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 179
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1872 on: June 15, 2019, 09:08:26 AM »
WOW! This is amazing uniquorn!

+1

A-Team and Uniquorn are doing a very great job visualising these things.

Keep it up, guys! :)

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1873 on: June 15, 2019, 09:37:53 AM »
"flashing on and off" of the large blue areas in the ESS are interesting.

Indeed it is!

Here is a GIF showing 12th vs 14th. Note how much more surface water there is on the 12th.

I'm thinking the melt ponds are now draining through the ice and it appears as ice data again in the sensors. There is no increase in sea ice. The decline we saw in the past numbers was wrong.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1874 on: June 15, 2019, 10:04:42 AM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1284
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1875 on: June 15, 2019, 10:30:35 AM »
Hycom for the record.

 When the ice retreats to 800N there'll be no resistance to rotation, on the CAA side the channel by 110W looks primed to open.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1876 on: June 15, 2019, 10:38:50 AM »
The MSLP of the cyclone currently spinning over Severnaya Zemlya was down to 976 hPa at 06:00 UTC this morning:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-15
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1877 on: June 15, 2019, 10:45:04 AM »
The heat wave torching the arctic through ESS and Laptev sea seemingly will not stop within a week. The ultimate source of such strong heat wave usually comes from the Indian Ocean. This summer we see the high SST Anomaly of Indian Ocean. A positve Indian Ocean Dipole is also an indicator showing it will not stop. A positive SST  Anomaly also exist along the southern Alaska. However, the cold water is strong in north pacific ocean. That means the heat wave intruding the arctic through Alaska will not as strong as the Russia side. 

Perhaps when the pacific ocean subtropical anticyclone jump northward, the heat wave through Alaska will become obvious. But it seems it will not happen before 2019.7.1.

To the influence of arctic sea ice, we can foresee the continue destroy from Russia side. The cyclone is easy to form in Atlantic side as negative SST anomaly in north Atlantic ocean. It will cause the sea ice drift towards the Atlantic side and killed in the later. I have to say that the weather and ocean condition is favorable for the arctic sea ice melting this year.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 504
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 179
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

HapHazard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 162
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 61
  • Likes Given: 1030
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1879 on: June 15, 2019, 11:40:30 AM »
An interesting year so far, regarding preconditioning. And I'm not talking about preconditioning for melt deeper into the season, I'm talking about preconditioning measured in years rather than weeks, towards an [inevitable] BOE/collapse. Looks to me like things have ratcheted up a few notches. What the data is revealing is quite intriguing, but what it's currently hiding is crucial. (much like a bikini)

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 224
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1880 on: June 15, 2019, 01:33:01 PM »
Hycom for the record.

 When the ice retreats to 800N there'll be no resistance to rotation, on the CAA side the channel by 110W looks primed to open.

As also was observable in other amazing animation, Fram and Nares are still working in high gear and the Beaufort already became a death zone for drifting MYI. Not to speak about what's happening in Siberia. I would prepare for another big drop in thickness and volume, preparing the ice for whatver might come later this year.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 792
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 399
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1881 on: June 15, 2019, 01:59:52 PM »
SMOS (satellite microwave measurements) beige pixel count on the University of Bremen maps has just dropped to second lowest in the years from with data, beginning from 2010, on the latest date for which the Bremen SMOS map is now available: 14 June 2019.

That ranking is according to the very useful graph that Steven puts out.


The beige pixel count provides a measurement of the area of Arctic sea ice that has NOT yet been wetted by (mainly) melt ponds, and that is therefore still reflecting most of any direct sunlight rather than absorbing it as heat.

So a lower beige pixel count corresponds to more of what Neven calls 'melting momentum'.


For 14 June, this year, 2019, is still well above the anomalous year 2012 and is just below the 3rd lowest year, which is 2016.

A large part of the reason for the drop into second place is the notable appearance of non-beige pixels on the Canadian+Greenland side of the Arctic sea ice on 14 June 2019, indicating the onset of significant surface melting there.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 02:07:51 PM by slow wing »

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4288
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1882 on: June 15, 2019, 07:44:32 PM »
The MSLP of the cyclone currently spinning over Severnaya Zemlya was down to 976 hPa at 06:00 UTC this morning

Now 974 hPa:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1883 on: June 15, 2019, 08:13:46 PM »
The heat wave torching the arctic through ESS and Laptev sea seemingly will not stop within a week. The ultimate source of such strong heat wave usually comes from the Indian Ocean. This summer we see the high SST Anomaly of Indian Ocean. A positve Indian Ocean Dipole is also an indicator showing it will not stop. A positive SST  Anomaly also exist along the southern Alaska. However, the cold water is strong in north pacific ocean. That means the heat wave intruding the arctic through Alaska will not as strong as the Russia side. 

Perhaps when the pacific ocean subtropical anticyclone jump northward, the heat wave through Alaska will become obvious. But it seems it will not happen before 2019.7.1.

To the influence of arctic sea ice, we can foresee the continue destroy from Russia side. The cyclone is easy to form in Atlantic side as negative SST anomaly in north Atlantic ocean. It will cause the sea ice drift towards the Atlantic side and killed in the later. I have to say that the weather and ocean condition is favorable for the arctic sea ice melting this year.

Great stuff.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3964
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 416
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1884 on: June 15, 2019, 08:24:38 PM »
The MSLP of the cyclone currently spinning over Severnaya Zemlya was down to 976 hPa at 06:00 UTC this morning

Now 974 hPa:

Some pretty tight isobars directing ice into the Barents.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1885 on: June 15, 2019, 08:30:03 PM »
The day five European model shows some impressive warm intrusion into the central Arctic.


However it is short lived.

As we have another season where the 2007-2012 dipole anomaly pattern does not persist.

You could add 2005 in there as well.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1886 on: June 15, 2019, 08:39:03 PM »
Some pretty tight isobars directing ice into the Barents.

crossposted just because it's so impressing and on-topic:
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 08:46:09 PM by magnamentis »

Thawing Thunder

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 224
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1887 on: June 15, 2019, 09:26:34 PM »
Apparently, the storm above Beaufort left a circular pattern on the ice.
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1888 on: June 15, 2019, 09:40:47 PM »
The 12 euro from day 4/5 on is really warm.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 795
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 152
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1889 on: June 15, 2019, 09:51:00 PM »
I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?

I wonder if such a Beastie as that would have looked at what we have learned about 'bottom melt' end of the season's shift to more LP dominated conditions (after such wide open ocean areas have milked the solar all season?) with such a calm and controlled appearance?

KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1890 on: June 15, 2019, 10:31:54 PM »
is it just me or does it look like the ice is just evaporating right now?? To my eye it just looks like the pack is just getting hit from all sides right now. Also looks cozy up in Barrow!

pls!

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1891 on: June 15, 2019, 10:34:23 PM »
Ruth Mottram (a climate scientist at the DMI) posted this image on Twitter a little while ago. 

It is a Sentinel2 image from today of Inglefield Bredning, the location of the sled dogs in Jim Hunts post #1841.

The melting in far northwest Greenland this early in the year is remarkable. 

be cause

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 886
  • Citizenship .. a Lurker gets asylum
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 254
  • Likes Given: 217
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1892 on: June 15, 2019, 10:37:25 PM »
As Thawing Thunder ( love it ! :) ) remarks , the low over Beaufort has left it's signature .
   It is 17 days since I first commented on that 'cold little low' .. it has lived longer than any I have followed in my time watching what happens in the Arctic basin and looks like hanging around for at least another week .
   I consider it largely responsible for having dragged much of the recent heat into the basin .. even beneath it the temps have been @ normal while at height it has had tentacles steering warmth and moisture north , especially from the Siberian side 
 Strangely , while producing little ppt or wind at surface level it has appeared to be the dominant cyclone in the hemisphere when looked at at 1.5 /2 PUV .. . In the current run it absorbs the Laptev/Kara low .. b.c.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 11:15:38 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rod

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1893 on: June 15, 2019, 10:39:35 PM »
is it just me or does it look like the ice is just evaporating right now??

You need to refresh your browser pearscot.  That image is four days old.  Barrow has been getting pounded by sun all day today. I keep checking every couple of hours expecting it to all disappear.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 10:51:09 PM by Rod »

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1894 on: June 15, 2019, 11:36:49 PM »
Ruth Mottram (a climate scientist at the DMI) posted this image on Twitter a little while ago. 

It is a Sentinel2 image from today of Inglefield Bredning, the location of the sled dogs in Jim Hunts post #1841.

The melting in far northwest Greenland this early in the year is remarkable.

... and to add some historical context, here it is in worldview, along with the same time in 2012 + 2016 ...

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7182
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 718
  • Likes Given: 468
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1895 on: June 16, 2019, 12:33:20 AM »
I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?

I'm worried all right, but it's still relatively early in the season. Five days to solstice...
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Ice Shieldz

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 234
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1896 on: June 16, 2019, 02:00:29 AM »
Speaking of melting in NW Greenland. Check out the 2m temp anomaly comparison between 2018 to 2019 as follows:

                            |                     
       2018 May       |       2018 Jun
                            |                     
                            |                     
       2019 May       |       2019 Jun 15th 30-day hindcast
                            |                     

If we don't see a drop in temps and insolation like 2018 soon then  :o :'(

peterlvmeng

  • New ice
  • Posts: 94
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1897 on: June 16, 2019, 02:16:41 AM »
The 12 euro from day 4/5 on is really warm.
Frivolous, that is pretty warning. I check the euro prediction of 6-10days. It seems there is a chance of ESS could be governed by cyclone. After almost 2 weeks torching from 2019.6.10-2019.6.23, the sea ice along the Russia side seems pretty vulnerable, and the cyclone will destroy them all.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 02:24:33 AM by peterlvmeng »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1898 on: June 16, 2019, 03:36:36 AM »
I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?

I'm worried all right, but it's still relatively early in the season. Five days to solstice...


And no dipole.

No substantial albedo drop over the Western CAB and Beaufort.

No reports of any surface ice loss in those two regions either.

We could end up number 2 or 3 lowest.

But no 2012 unless we see a major dipole take over soon and persist throughout July over the CAB and CAA.


I guess there is a first time for everything.  And eventually the ice will be all FYI so it really wont matter.

But as it stands I think it still matters today



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

subgeometer

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 362
    • View Profile
    • All in the Name of Liberty
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1899 on: June 16, 2019, 05:02:21 AM »
The freezing altitude forecast on Windy from the EC is astonishing, Huge areas well over 2500m now and every day to follow. The low bringing the next Laptev heat blast in 3 days will have above freezing air at and around its core up to about 3500m even after proceeding well north of Severnaya Zemlya.