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Author Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 605598 times)

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1900 on: June 16, 2019, 05:17:02 AM »
I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?

I'm worried all right, but it's still relatively early in the season. Five days to solstice...


And no dipole.

No substantial albedo drop over the Western CAB and Beaufort.

No reports of any surface ice loss in those two regions either.

We could end up number 2 or 3 lowest.

But no 2012 unless we see a major dipole take over soon and persist throughout July over the CAB and CAA.


I guess there is a first time for everything.  And eventually the ice will be all FYI so it really wont matter.

But as it stands I think it still matters today

Why is a dipole necessary? There's plenty of warm water in the Beaufort, sunshine to come and the ice in the gyre is all spread out and thinning.




Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1901 on: June 16, 2019, 06:29:53 AM »
I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?

I'm worried all right, but it's still relatively early in the season. Five days to solstice...


And no dipole.

No substantial albedo drop over the Western CAB and Beaufort.

No reports of any surface ice loss in those two regions either.

We could end up number 2 or 3 lowest.

But no 2012 unless we see a major dipole take over soon and persist throughout July over the CAB and CAA.


I guess there is a first time for everything.  And eventually the ice will be all FYI so it really wont matter.

But as it stands I think it still matters today

Why is a dipole necessary? There's plenty of warm water in the Beaufort, sunshine to come and the ice in the gyre is all spread out and thinning.

the short answer is because we've only seen record lows with those dipole anomalies.

But more importantly you're talking about the Beaufort.

To achieve a new record low in sea ice extent in area along the far northern shores of Canada.

we would have to see the ice completely melt out to at least 82 degrees north along the Canadian coast running on a line directly toward 85° North as it heads out into the central Canadian basin.

This is in seas that are way deep so there is almost no disruption of the thermocline.

Meaning that in order to get sufficient bottom melt we have to see massive influx of solar radiation.

Our historical precedents shows MYI of even a meager 2-3M in thickness over the Western CAB takes weeks of persistent solar beatings before any meaningful bottom ice melt gets going.

And it takes some very powerful bottom ice melt way up there north of 80 degrees in the Western cab have any chance to melt that ice out in one summer season.

Once again this summer we are almost at the solstice and that area has seen basically no sun.

It's theoretically early enough for there to be time to still achieve that result.

But practically it's not it's too late already.

To compensate for this area still being there in September we would need the Atlantic sector to melt out to the pole.

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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1902 on: June 16, 2019, 07:47:58 AM »


we would have to see the ice completely melt out to at least 82 degrees north along the Canadian coast running on a line directly toward 85° North as it heads out into the central Canadian basin.


I'm having a difficult time visualizing this line. If we use the map in post 1875 for reference, 82 N intersects the Canadian coast at Ellesmere Island, due south of the north pole.

If we draw a line from 82N to 85N, it goes straight to the N. Pole (by definition).

Unless the map on post 1875 is incorrect, you seem to be describing a line that divides the western half of the Arctic from the eastern half. The implication being that the entire western half needs to melt out in order to set a record.

Let's get the land marks straight first.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1903 on: June 16, 2019, 08:43:42 AM »


we would have to see the ice completely melt out to at least 82 degrees north along the Canadian coast running on a line directly toward 85° North as it heads out into the central Canadian basin.


I'm having a difficult time visualizing this line. If we use the map in post 1875 for reference, 82 N intersects the Canadian coast at Ellesmere Island, due south of the north pole.

If we draw a line from 82N to 85N, it goes straight to the N. Pole (by definition).

Unless the map on post 1875 is incorrect, you seem to be describing a line that divides the western half of the Arctic from the eastern half. The implication being that the entire western half needs to melt out in order to set a record.

Let's get the land marks straight first.

Yeah that's about right.

Just break out a 2012 Bremen extent graphic from say September 10th.

And then try to conceptualize how far into the heart of the Arctic basin that open water made it.

Because it's unprecedented.

It's hard to imagine any scenario today right now where 2019 beats that when the most protected ice historically that got smoked in 2012 has been greatly protected in 2019 almost to the solstice.

Another area that is falling behind is the CAA.

The models bring the cold, cloudy, vortex and light snow chances into the CAA next week.


Assuming these areas lose less ice than in 2012.

The only way that is offset will be total melt put to the pole.

Which is extremely unlikely.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
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Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1904 on: June 16, 2019, 08:44:18 AM »
This is not looking good  :'(



« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 09:03:32 AM by Milwen »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1905 on: June 16, 2019, 08:59:12 AM »
25cm loss in thickness in 1 day in some areas.

That's not what these maps are showing. Don't use them for thickness during summer. They say something about how wet the ice is, roughly. That's it.
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Milwen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1906 on: June 16, 2019, 09:02:58 AM »
25cm loss in thickness in 1 day in some areas.

That's not what these maps are showing. Don't use them for thickness during summer. They say something about how wet the ice is, roughly. That's it.

Ah, I didnt know about it. Good to know.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1907 on: June 16, 2019, 09:08:34 AM »
I agree with friv that the action needs to shift to the Beaufort again, to have a shot at the record. Even though things definitely aren't calm in the Arctic right now, the cluster of isobars we see in the ECMWF forecast posted below, needs to point towards the Atlantic because of a dipole set-up. The dipole is there, but it's not pointing in the right direction.
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Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1908 on: June 16, 2019, 09:11:34 AM »
Ah, I didnt know about it. Good to know.

Lately, this graph has been posted frequently. It shows how many beige pixels are contained in the SMOS maps you posted, ie how much of the surface isn't wet. As you can see, as of today, 2019 is lowest:
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slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1909 on: June 16, 2019, 09:13:52 AM »
According to the SMOS maps -- which show satellite microwave measurements, displayed on a map of the Arctic by University of Bremen -- 15 June 2019, just released, may have had the smallest area of 'dry' Arctic sea ice on record for the date, going back to 2010 and just pipping the exceptional melt year, 2012.

That's according to the 'beige pixel count' graph by Steven.

EDIT: as Neven has just pointed out in such a timely and informative manner..  :D

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1910 on: June 16, 2019, 09:15:33 AM »
25cm loss in thickness in 1 day in some areas.

That's not what these maps are showing. Don't use them for thickness during summer. They say something about how wet the ice is, roughly. That's it.

Why does any credible organization put out a map with a legend for ice thickness that reveals something else?

Is this basically a misleading garbage map? 

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1911 on: June 16, 2019, 09:19:33 AM »
25cm loss in thickness in 1 day in some areas.

That's not what these maps are showing. Don't use them for thickness during summer. They say something about how wet the ice is, roughly. That's it.

Why does any credible organization put out a map with a legend for ice thickness that reveals something else?


Is this basically a misleading garbage map?

No, it's valuable measurements made in a frequency range - microwaves - that is unique and providing an orthogonal view of the ice to all the other satellite measurements.

That scale is correct for the Winter months. University of Bremen have been kind enough to continue sharing the map even over the summer months where their calibration is not valid but where the map is perhaps the best single resource we have for quantifying the amount of melt ponding and wet sea ice.

Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1912 on: June 16, 2019, 09:34:18 AM »
I'm having difficulty fathoming how the software assigns thickness related assumptions to the various sections of the map.

You're describing a system built to correctly measure thickness in winter, but only useful for identifying a binary state of wet or dry surface in summer.

Somehow, the software is still producing a thickness output which if not accurate, is at least proportional to the expectation of what we would see in the region.

The inference is that the presence of moisture on the surface is creating a uniformly distorted output which is creating an artificially low thickness reading.

For god sakes, someone should put a big warning label on that graph to avoid misleading people. Better yet, they shouldn't share it in summer without altering the legend.

It's unprofessional.

aslan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1913 on: June 16, 2019, 09:51:32 AM »
According to the SMOS maps -- which show satellite microwave measurements, displayed on a map of the Arctic by University of Bremen -- 15 June 2019, just released, may have had the smallest area of 'dry' Arctic sea ice on record for the date, going back to 2010 and just pipping the exceptional melt year, 2012.

That's according to the 'beige pixel count' graph by Steven.

EDIT: as Neven has just pointed out in such a timely and informative manner..  :D

Wich is also visible this morning with the spreading of dark red colour on the 3-6-7 band :

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-06-16-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4769700.425308427,-1996705.9295692188,3094619.574691573,2119774.070430781

What I'm eager to see later this season is whether the pack could fully break away from any land. The usual reasoning is that the last of ice would be near Ellesmere and Greenland, but this year surface melt is way under way near this coast, and temperatures are really warm near the coast. Perhaps there is a chance that the pack will be a a board in the middle of the ocean, battered by the waves ? Research about past sea ice conditions found proxies of beaches along the Greenland coast. Perhaps we are not so far away from relocating the night clubs of Ibiza near Kape Morris Jesup ... https://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6043/747

Also, as some others point out, the Beaufort sea open so early that the cold cyclone was note able to bring down the temperatures at surface, as shown by min temperature in the Canadian sector wich remains near zero the last days :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2019&mes=06&day=14&hora=06&vtn=Tn&enviar=Ver
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2019&mes=06&day=15&hora=06&vtn=Tn&enviar=Ver
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2019&mes=06&day=16&hora=06&vtn=Tn&enviar=Ver

Etc. As a consequence, surface melt seems to be, slowly but surely, ramping up even in the canadian sector, despite the cyclone -or because of it, as it is raining cats and dogs from an Arctic point of view-.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1914 on: June 16, 2019, 09:58:02 AM »
Let's hope that PIOMAS comes out with mid-month update so we get a clue about the damage.

I agree with both Neven and Friv that 2012 will be extremely unlikely to beat this year. IMO, that's not the real important thing whether we beat 2012 or not. Remember that 2012 strongly diverged from earlier years by the beginning of August when the strength of the sun is quickly vaning in the high Arctic. And it quickly refroze that fall. It's more concerning that we are getting open seas in (April) May and June, especially over deep seas, that can suck up tons of energy from the sun and delay freezing by fall and winter. I don't want to guess what kind of weather we'll get after next strong El Nino. Then we'll be in serious trouble!

Neven

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1915 on: June 16, 2019, 10:13:59 AM »
I'm in the 'unlikely', but not in the 'extremely unlikely' camp as of yet.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1916 on: June 16, 2019, 10:27:30 AM »
I'm in the 'unlikely', but not in the 'extremely unlikely' camp as of yet.
Wow that is saying something. Neven is usually the voice of restraint telling the newbies not to get carried away with our expectations.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1917 on: June 16, 2019, 10:37:32 AM »
The skies over "Amundsen's Route" through the Northwest Passage have cleared briefly to reveal this:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/the-northwest-passage-in-2019/#Jun-15
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1918 on: June 16, 2019, 10:43:51 AM »
'Amundsen's Route 2019' when?

Would make a nice poll, no?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1919 on: June 16, 2019, 10:49:20 AM »
Would make a nice poll, no?

Including the Bellot Strait options also (Routes 5 & 6)?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1920 on: June 16, 2019, 10:52:34 AM »
Including the Bellot Strait options also (Routes 5 & 6)?

DO EEET  ;D

(with confident level for each route perhaps)

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1921 on: June 16, 2019, 11:00:25 AM »
Parrys channel will most likely remain closed this year unless we see a pattern change soon.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1922 on: June 16, 2019, 11:00:37 AM »
Including the Bellot Strait options also (Routes 5 & 6)?

DO EEET  ;D

Absent mindedly forgetting that I started this thread, I have inadvertently added the NWP poll at the top. Now I can't seem to delete it!

Is there a moderator in the house?

<There is one where I live, poll removed; N.>
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 11:02:47 AM by Neven »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1923 on: June 16, 2019, 11:00:50 AM »
cheers Jim .. who knew there was so much Lapis lazuli in the area .. the old cold low has been busy .. b.c.

  as have been my fellow posters .. happy sailing everyone ! :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1924 on: June 16, 2019, 11:14:19 AM »
<There is one where I live, poll removed; N.>

Thanks Neven. Now in a thread of its very own:

'When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?'

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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1925 on: June 16, 2019, 11:17:49 AM »
Back to topic! Latest GFS 00z op is almost a complete nightmare after D10 with HP covering thecwhole Arctic. Let's pray and hope it doesn't emanate which it in say 99 cases of 100 does not. If it would, I shall be more than willing to change my opinion about 2012 not being beated this year.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1926 on: June 16, 2019, 11:24:31 AM »
Slightly disagree with Friv. there's Atlantic water penetrating the Arctic at depth along the CAA shelf this is stirring up Beaufort 30-100-300m salinity model from Mercator, there's also some evidence of vortices moving through the basin from the buoys.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 10:39:11 PM by johnm33 »

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1927 on: June 16, 2019, 11:45:37 AM »
The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record. Ever since the "garlic press" (2016?), the CAA has been filled with MYI that got stuck in the channels during refreeze, making it very difficult to melt, despite deep melt ponds and rather average weather. Should it break up at some early or middling point, a lot of it could be exported down to Baffin, never to return, and with barely a backfeed from the Western CAB/Beaufort due to the low ice cover there. But to melt most of it in situ with no movement will be very difficult, especially considering the non-torching weather, now already being the middle of June. I am keeping my eyes peeled open for this region.

Edit: ĺooking at AMSR2 regional area graph, 2012 saw a minimum of ~50k km2 in the CAA, 2016 reached ~100k, while 2017-2018 hit ~200k.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1928 on: June 16, 2019, 11:54:03 AM »
The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record.

I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1929 on: June 16, 2019, 12:03:06 PM »
"The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record. "
Me too but it could be that the turbulence caused by the Atlantic waters is providing the weather system over Beaufort with it's energy, which may change the game??

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1930 on: June 16, 2019, 12:07:07 PM »
I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.

Cross posting from the NWP Poll, there is plenty of "old ice" in there:

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1931 on: June 16, 2019, 12:10:47 PM »
ECMWF weather forecast is very interesting right now. A cyclone is going to churn up the Beaufort slush, transport towards the Greenland Sea and especially the Barentsz Sea continues, and will be intensified even by a relatively large cyclone that is said to reach 972 hPa on D5. This cyclone will also pull in lots of more warm air from Siberia, and further increase the open water in the Laptev Sea, while pushing ice away from the ESS coast.

The question is what will come after this. If we return to the set-up with high pressure dominating over the Beaufort Sea, 2019 will definitely end up in the Top 3. But I would be surprised if it doesn't end up in the Top5 already.
Yes, I totally agree with you, Neven. Although we cannot precisely predict whether the minimum area will break record, the upper boundary of minimum sea ice area is so obvious that this year will not good. And I came up with a simple melting ice heat transfer correlation. It is rough but is proper to deliver my view.
Q=h*delta T* A
Q is the heat the ice received
h is the overal heat transfer coefficient covering all the factors, such as solar radiation, wind, currents
delta T is the average temperature difference between air and ice temperature
A is the heat transfer area.

A sunny day (no high speed wind)
delta T is large (supposing deltaT=3)
h is small (supposing h=1)
A do not change (supposing A=1)

So the Q=3*1*1=3

A warm day ( with storm weather)
delta T is not so large (Supposing deltaT=1.5)
h is big because of turbulence(supposing h=3)
A depends on the thickness of ice(supposing ice is thin and easily be fractured A=1.5) then Q=1.5*3*1.5=6.75
(supposing the ice is strong A do not change A=1)
Q=1.5*3*1=4.5

A cold day (with storm)
delta T is small (Supposing deltaT=0.5)
h is big because of turbulence(supposing h=3)
A did not change so much (supposing A=1)
Q=0.5*3*1=1.5

So it is interesting to see the power of warm storm(2012 GAC)affects the melting ice, also the power of sunny weather (2007 extremely hot arctic summer), and the power of relative cold storm( 2016 stormy weather in arctic, the temperature in July and August is not warm even, but the ice is so thin and could be easily fractured) .

What I want to mention is that once the ice becomes thin and easily fractured, the storm becomes so important to influence the arctic rather than sunny weather. More storms, larger theat transfer coefficent h, and larger heat transfer area A, you do not need to beg the arctic will cool down tremendously becasue of global warming!, thus delta T will not be too small. So let us wait for the storm in ARCTIC!
We have seen the melt pond expansion for a week. Now the ice is vulnerable and storm may be important to destroy those thin ice along the Russia side.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1932 on: June 16, 2019, 12:31:58 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

which is also University of Bremen.

So here is a pretty picture. Plenty of other stuff there.
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Retron

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1933 on: June 16, 2019, 12:40:44 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

works fine.
(It's the URL for the most recent map, so updates daily. The other links I posted in the data thread still work fine - static images are working via Bremen, just not the dynamic stuff.)

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1934 on: June 16, 2019, 12:51:39 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

works fine.
(It's the URL for the most recent map, so updates daily. The other links I posted in the data thread still work fine - static images are working via Bremen, just not the dynamic stuff.)
It's like only being allowed to see one page of a book when knowing the book is there.
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Rich

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1935 on: June 16, 2019, 01:24:58 PM »
So looking back at A-Team's historical gifs, it appears that at the 2012 minimum, the remaining sea ice on the Canadian coast extended as far west as 75N..... which brought it to the eastern edge of Banks Island.

Not sure why Friv is indicating that we need the ice to move up the coast to 82N to Ellesmere to set a new record.

If the ESS and Laptev continue to melt out and proceed to the pole, there is a chance for a record.

Not commenting on the likelihood....just keeping an open mind.

.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1936 on: June 16, 2019, 02:21:04 PM »
So looking back at A-Team's historical gifs, it appears that at the 2012 minimum, the remaining sea ice on the Canadian coast extended as far west as 75N..... which brought it to the eastern edge of Banks Island.

Not sure why Friv is indicating that we need the ice to move up the coast to 82N to Ellesmere to set a new record.

If the ESS and Laptev continue to melt out and proceed to the pole, there is a chance for a record.

Not commenting on the likelihood....just keeping an open mind.

.
That seems even less likely. I keep my mind very closed to that.
Between Eurasia and Canada there is the same kind of >2m thick, compact, probably MYI that the one Frivolous refers to as closer to the continent. On top of deep ocean. I have seen this ice melt mainly south of Fram, but the transport takes some time.
Another thing is an strong assault of Pacific/American heat that melts out ESS, Chukchi and Beaufort and pushed the central ice toward the Atlantic sea, that is the effect I guess from a strong dipole. So back to square 1.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1937 on: June 16, 2019, 02:26:15 PM »
I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.

Cross posting from the NWP Poll, there is plenty of "old ice" in there:


Well yes, but I in extent it's not that much and I don't see why there couldn't be a crash in arctic ice without there being a crash in CAA ice - the reasoning eludes me.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1938 on: June 16, 2019, 02:37:12 PM »
Strong winds blowing warm air off of the Eurasian continent, like we have seen for the past week will be capable of opening up a large area of blue water quickly. This will increase the albedo warming potential if it continues. Rapidly melting out the thin ice on the Eurasian side is a more effective way to reach a record minimum because of the drop in albedo when the ice is gone.

I don't think the CAA is irrelevant but in a year with relatively high ice transport out of the Fram and Nares straits, it's not critical. When the winds are anticyclonic there is little transport through the CAA and when the winds are cyclonic over the central Arctic, it's generally cool.

In conclusion, I don't think the CAA is all that important in reaching a new record minimum if the other more important factors are in place.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1939 on: June 16, 2019, 02:47:26 PM »
I'm in the 'unlikely', but not in the 'extremely unlikely' camp as of yet.
Wow that is saying something. Neven is usually the voice of restraint telling the newbies not to get carried away with our expectations.

How is "unlikely" getting carried away with his expectations. His expectations are that a new minimum is not going to happen.

johnm33

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1940 on: June 16, 2019, 02:54:02 PM »
" I don't see why there couldn't be a crash in arctic ice without there being a crash in CAA ice - the reasoning eludes me."
My take is that with the CAA open the least saline, easiest to freeze fraction can flow through to Baffin forced by every tidal cycle, high pressure system etc. so in some way, blocked, it acts as a pressure regulator on the entry of Pacific/Atlantic waters. So the ice could crash but probably not a new record.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1941 on: June 16, 2019, 02:57:45 PM »
Let's hope that PIOMAS comes out with mid-month update so we get a clue about the damage.

I agree with both Neven and Friv that 2012 will be extremely unlikely to beat this year. IMO, that's not the real important thing whether we beat 2012 or not. Remember that 2012 strongly diverged from earlier years by the beginning of August when the strength of the sun is quickly vaning in the high Arctic. And it quickly refroze that fall. It's more concerning that we are getting open seas in (April) May and June, especially over deep seas, that can suck up tons of energy from the sun and delay freezing by fall and winter. I don't want to guess what kind of weather we'll get after next strong El Nino. Then we'll be in serious trouble!

I agree.

It is fun to watch the horse race to the annual minimum but the degradation of the Arctic ice is a long process and I find it far more interesting to watch this happen. The Bering has been opening up earlier and earlier and the effect has been to warm the waters so much through added insolation that it did not really freeze this past winter. This process is occurring in the Chulkchi, Beaufort, ESS and Laptev as well. The longer these seas remain open water, the more heat uptake. The freeze will occur later and the ice will be thinner after the subsequent freeze. Winter max for volume is the measure to watch IMHO.

Look at these peripheral seas in the basin. All are at or near their all time minimums for the date. These seas are melting out earlier and earlier and warming dramatically as a result. Even the CAA is near its minimum for the date which is due to the increasingly early clear out of the Amundsen Gulf which is more an extension of the Beaufort than it is a part of the CAA. This rapid melt in the CAA will slow dramatically as the straits will not melt out as quickly.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 03:31:48 PM by Shared Humanity »

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1942 on: June 16, 2019, 03:00:33 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

which is also University of Bremen.

Gerontocrat, I very much appreciate such links. Is there a way to collect them and make them permanently and easily accessible here in the forum, maybe vía a dedicated thread?
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1943 on: June 16, 2019, 03:27:18 PM »
Well yes, but I in extent it's not that much and I don't see why there couldn't be a crash in arctic ice without there being a crash in CAA ice - the reasoning eludes me.

When discussing the "amount" of sea ice I automatically assume "volume" unless otherwise specified!

I take your point.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1944 on: June 16, 2019, 04:04:10 PM »
So far, arguments here trying to temper expectations on 2019 are not based on facts, rather cherry-picking from a limited data-time sample, and feelings. Always makes me sad to see scientists behave this way.

The only other year as bad as 2019 so far is 2012. Claiming everything has to line up the same way with the same weather patterns to achieve similar results.... is again, a weak argument.

The ice in 2019 is a lot more fragile than 2012, and we have lots of heat and storms coming up. I'm also reminded that 2012's record melt probably helped created Hurricane Sandy, the largest hurricane ever in the Atlantic.

binntho

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1945 on: June 16, 2019, 04:05:00 PM »
" I don't see why there couldn't be a crash in arctic ice without there being a crash in CAA ice - the reasoning eludes me."
My take is that with the CAA open the least saline, easiest to freeze fraction can flow through to Baffin forced by every tidal cycle, high pressure system etc. so in some way, blocked, it acts as a pressure regulator on the entry of Pacific/Atlantic waters. So the ice could crash but probably not a new record.

I still don't see the logic. In 2012 the CAA was not significantly different from most other years (a difference of 100.000 to 200.000 km2) and in all the years that I've been watching the ice in the Arctic, the CAA has always seemed to me to be totally "out of it", i.e. not really part of the Arcic Sea Ice proper. It doesn't really move, it doesn't take part in any exciting developments, it sometimes melts enough to allow cruise ships to sail through - but to give it any major linchpin significance in crash-predictions seems to me to be totally spurious.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1946 on: June 16, 2019, 04:25:45 PM »
I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

Gerontocrat, I very much appreciate such links. Is there a way to collect them and make them permanently and easily accessible here in the forum, maybe vía a dedicated thread?
I have a forest of environment bookmarks kept on google to solve my problem.

I did open an Arctic Background Data thread. Perhaps these links could be parked there from time to time. But it's Sunday, and time for me to be a lazy slob.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1947 on: June 16, 2019, 04:27:27 PM »
I too think the attention to the CAA is overblown.

If I'm looking at one key area right now, it's the ESS. You've got a big head start on either side of it with a lot of open water in the Beaufort and Laptev.

If the ESS takes off and the inner seas form a continuous body of water, then the Central Arctic is open to the most avenues of attack.


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1948 on: June 16, 2019, 04:32:46 PM »
in all the years that I've been watching the ice in the Arctic, the CAA has always seemed to me to be totally "out of it", i.e. not really part of the Arcic Sea Ice proper. It doesn't really move, it doesn't take part in any exciting developments, it sometimes melts enough to allow cruise ships to sail through - but to give it any major linchpin significance in crash-predictions seems to me to be totally spurious.
I agree.

I made a set of graphs looking at how the various seas are transforming from icy deserts to open water seas. The CAA is one of a few seas where one would think that global warming has passed it by.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1949 on: June 16, 2019, 04:34:57 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.

In dire need of a pretty picture of Jun 15 sea ice, I looked and found

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

which is also University of Bremen.

Gerontocrat, I very much appreciate such links. Is there a way to collect them and make them permanently and easily accessible here in the forum, maybe vía a dedicated thread?
Neven has the Bremen AMSR2 concentration map (on ASI Graphs):
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.