I have to wonder if the Neven of 2012 would be as relaxed about what appears (to some long term watchers?) to be setting up in the Basin?
I'm worried all right, but it's still relatively early in the season. Five days to solstice...
And no dipole.
No substantial albedo drop over the Western CAB and Beaufort.
No reports of any surface ice loss in those two regions either.
We could end up number 2 or 3 lowest.
But no 2012 unless we see a major dipole take over soon and persist throughout July over the CAB and CAA.
I guess there is a first time for everything. And eventually the ice will be all FYI so it really wont matter.
But as it stands I think it still matters today
Why is a dipole necessary? There's plenty of warm water in the Beaufort, sunshine to come and the ice in the gyre is all spread out and thinning.
the short answer is because we've only seen record lows with those dipole anomalies.
But more importantly you're talking about the Beaufort.
To achieve a new record low in sea ice extent in area along the far northern shores of Canada.
we would have to see the ice completely melt out to at least 82 degrees north along the Canadian coast running on a line directly toward 85° North as it heads out into the central Canadian basin.
This is in seas that are way deep so there is almost no disruption of the thermocline.
Meaning that in order to get sufficient bottom melt we have to see massive influx of solar radiation.
Our historical precedents shows MYI of even a meager 2-3M in thickness over the Western CAB takes weeks of persistent solar beatings before any meaningful bottom ice melt gets going.
And it takes some very powerful bottom ice melt way up there north of 80 degrees in the Western cab have any chance to melt that ice out in one summer season.
Once again this summer we are almost at the solstice and that area has seen basically no sun.
It's theoretically early enough for there to be time to still achieve that result.
But practically it's not it's too late already.
To compensate for this area still being there in September we would need the Atlantic sector to melt out to the pole.
Fat Chance