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magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1950 on: June 16, 2019, 05:11:54 PM »
University of Bremen link https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ still not operational.


IMO this is by far the best substitute for what you were looking for and for several reasons

try out the various features including large and very large image.

AFAIK the source is the same as well, hence no significant change of result between platforms to be expected

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1951 on: June 16, 2019, 06:07:16 PM »
This is a very nice graphic created by Zack Labe that shows the YTD temperature anomalies across the arctic.

Parts of Alaska and the Beaufort are 5 degrees centigrade (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981-2010 average.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1952 on: June 16, 2019, 06:10:11 PM »

IMO this is by far the best substitute for what you were looking for and for several reasons

try out the various features including large and very large image.

AFAIK the source is the same as well, hence no significant change of result between platforms to be expected

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1953 on: June 16, 2019, 06:23:24 PM »
This is a very nice graphic created by Zack Labe that shows the YTD temperature anomalies across the arctic.

Parts of Alaska and the Beaufort are 5 degrees centigrade (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981-2010 average.
This isn't exactly accurate -- it is 925MB which is not the surface (though it is surely accurate for the 925MB level).

The attached shows from 45-90N YTD anomalies in C. A large part of the Arctic is indeed +5C or higher vs normal.

The yearly anomalies are much worse than 2012. But 2016 actually had a higher core of heat over the heart of the Arctic (although 2019 has more heat in the Pacific periphery, it also has less over the ATL side).

It looks like things are slowly shifting to a state where the PAC retreat is becoming more steady and sustained year over year while the ATL fluctuates. I would suspect this is due to the accumulating freshwater anomalies derivative of +snowfall in North America and Eurasia, and increasing snowmelt / SMB discharge from Greenland.

Because of where Greenland is situation, this is resulting in a steady worsening of the PAC as AGW accelerates, and increasing fluctuations on the ATL side between very warm and very cold (with the cold extreme seemingly winning out more and more as Greenland and the SWE feedbacks have swung into overdrive post-2012 more often than not).

I think this dichotomy and the resultant pattern of anomalies in the NHEM maps below indicate something fairly important beyond the sea ice. If 2012->2019 is sustained through 2019->2026 we will not need a BOE for catastrophe to occur. 2019 has now easily surpassed 2013's impact on North American agriculture. It is very easy to imagine an even worse year (or CONSECUTIVE worst-ever years) occurring in an imminent timeframe (i.e. before 2026). At that point substantial geopolitical ramifications from food shortages are likely to begin occurring in widespread areas, let's hope they don't all happen at once. We have achieved a horrible outcome in 2019 following a milquetoast minimum. What happens if we do see a September area # below 2M KM^2 by 2026, as most would agree is very likely? It will not be good....

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1954 on: June 16, 2019, 06:43:45 PM »
The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record.

I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.


There is so little ice left.

If the CAA has 150K more than 2012 that has to be made up somewhere.

But where?

Then the Western Canadian basin in 2012 had ice skating that 75-80N box along the CAA coast.

It's almost certain that area will have more ice this case season.

There is some super torching coming to 2/3rs the Arctic this week tho.


We might melt out to the pole from the ESS angle.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1955 on: June 16, 2019, 06:51:38 PM »
The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record.

I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.


There is so little ice left.

If the CAA has 150K more than 2012 that has to be made up somewhere.

But where?

Then the Western Canadian basin in 2012 had ice skating that 75-80N box along the CAA coast.

It's almost certain that area will have more ice this case season.

There is some super torching coming to 2/3rs the Arctic this week tho.


We might melt out to the pole from the ESS angle.
You can see that NRN Siberia is now igniting. The fires are probably spreading on the wind. The smoke plumes have increased substantially over the past week and should only keep growing through August. 2019 is the worst year in the satellite record for the date. IMO this year will have more "easy" ice than 2012 to melt remaining by 7/1-15 (Hudson, Baffin, Kara), which will put 2019 into the lead by 8/15 or so.

be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1956 on: June 16, 2019, 06:51:58 PM »
 ..' we might melt out to the pole' .. and the weather wakes the world beyond Greta and ER ?
b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1957 on: June 16, 2019, 06:56:59 PM »
According to the SMOS maps -- which show satellite microwave measurements, displayed on a map of the Arctic by University of Bremen -- 15 June 2019, just released, may have had the smallest area of 'dry' Arctic sea ice on record for the date, going back to 2010 and just pipping the exceptional melt year, 2012.

That's according to the 'beige pixel count' graph by Steven.

EDIT: as Neven has just pointed out in such a timely and informative manner..  :D

Wich is also visible this morning with the spreading of dark red colour on the 3-6-7 band :

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-06-16-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-4769700.425308427,-1996705.9295692188,3094619.574691573,2119774.070430781

What I'm eager to see later this season is whether the pack could fully break away from any land. The usual reasoning is that the last of ice would be near Ellesmere and Greenland, but this year surface melt is way under way near this coast, and temperatures are really warm near the coast. Perhaps there is a chance that the pack will be a a board in the middle of the ocean, battered by the waves ? Research about past sea ice conditions found proxies of beaches along the Greenland coast. Perhaps we are not so far away from relocating the night clubs of Ibiza near Kape Morris Jesup ... https://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6043/747

Also, as some others point out, the Beaufort sea open so early that the cold cyclone was note able to bring down the temperatures at surface, as shown by min temperature in the Canadian sector wich remains near zero the last days :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2019&mes=06&day=14&hora=06&vtn=Tn&enviar=Ver
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2019&mes=06&day=15&hora=06&vtn=Tn&enviar=Ver
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2019&mes=06&day=16&hora=06&vtn=Tn&enviar=Ver

Etc. As a consequence, surface melt seems to be, slowly but surely, ramping up even in the canadian sector, despite the cyclone -or because of it, as it is raining cats and dogs from an Arctic point of view-.

I wanted to make sure you got credit for bringing it up.

You are right.  Almost the entire Arctic surface is wet.

Even Southern GIS is wet to almost the peaks there.

Looking back just to 2010.

It really is amazing how much of the surface this year is that wet.

You can thank amazing PRECONDITIONING FOR THIS


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1958 on: June 16, 2019, 06:59:49 PM »
The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record.

I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.


There is so little ice left.

If the CAA has 150K more than 2012 that has to be made up somewhere.

But where?

Then the Western Canadian basin in 2012 had ice skating that 75-80N box along the CAA coast.

It's almost certain that area will have more ice this case season.

There is some super torching coming to 2/3rs the Arctic this week tho.


We might melt out to the pole from the ESS angle.
You can see that NRN Siberia is now igniting. The fires are probably spreading on the wind. The smoke plumes have increased substantially over the past week and should only keep growing through August. 2019 is the worst year in the satellite record for the date. IMO this year will have more "easy" ice than 2012 to melt remaining by 7/1-15 (Hudson, Baffin, Kara), which will put 2019 into the lead by 8/15 or so.


If the weather cooperates it's possible.

You aren't wrong about the Easy Ice this year it is amazing how much ice is complete trash.


Hard to believe just 30 to 40 years ago almost the entire artic basin was a huge area of 3-8M thick ice
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1959 on: June 16, 2019, 07:26:46 PM »
This is a very nice graphic created by Zack Labe that shows the YTD temperature anomalies across the arctic.

Parts of Alaska and the Beaufort are 5 degrees centigrade (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981-2010 average.
This isn't exactly accurate -- it is 925MB which is not the surface (though it is surely accurate for the 925MB level).

This is the most accurate way to report the data.  The NOAA/ESRL maps you attached also look at 925mb temps when determining anomalies in order to “emphasize large spatial patterns rather than local features.”

Below is the the link to the section on Surface and Temperature in the 2016 Arctic Report Card.  Along with relevant screen shots.  I’m on my phone right now and can’t copy and paste text. 

The anomalies we are seeing this year are huge and help explain why most of the ice surface is wet right now.

https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2016/ArtMID/5022/ArticleID/271/Surface-Air-Temperature






« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 07:32:17 PM by Rod »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1960 on: June 16, 2019, 07:44:01 PM »
The big question mark hangs over the CAA. I tend to agree with Friv, no CAA crash=no record.

I don't see why that should be necessary - there is not that much ice in there.


There is so little ice left.

If the CAA has 150K more than 2012 that has to be made up somewhere.

But where?

Then the Western Canadian basin in 2012 had ice skating that 75-80N box along the CAA coast.

It's almost certain that area will have more ice this case season.

There is some super torching coming to 2/3rs the Arctic this week tho.


We might melt out to the pole from the ESS angle.

Amazing to see how clear of ice the CAA was at the end of the melt season. In 2012, there was a huge amount of very thick MYI hugging the coast of Greenland and CAA. This ice resisted flowing into the straits. The garlic press is now operating and much of that MYI has sought refuge in the straits of the CAA.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1961 on: June 16, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
The only area that has a realistic shot to compensate for the sea ice in CAA is in the northern Greenland Sea. As we can see from Frivs map, that area was still ice covered at the minimumback in 2012. The last few years the ice has melten out there.  Just my opinion.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 07:51:41 PM by Lord M Vader »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1962 on: June 16, 2019, 07:53:24 PM »
I'm sure if a retrospective of this month is made , the little low over Beaufort will merit a mention in dispatches . It has not stopped all month drawing moisture and warmth into the Arctic  basin since before it's sortie over to the ESS and Laptev 10 days ago  . It has also influenced the weather over every inch of the basin by sling-shooting little weather bombs in all directions .. a little rain , a little snow .. but always with surface temperatures on the side of thaw not freeze . It has been a very open clouded low .. lots of sunshine along with the weather .. no wonder the whole basin has turned a deeper shade of orange on worldview's 367 ..
  So in 2019 even a cold shallow low can be devastating .. something we could hardly have conceived a few years ago . And the outlook is for it to be replaced by another shallow low .. b.c.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 11:12:47 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

epiphyte

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1963 on: June 16, 2019, 08:50:50 PM »

I made a set of graphs looking at how the various seas are transforming from icy deserts to open water seas. The CAA is one of a few seas where one would think that global warming has passed it by.

Makes sense, in a WACCy sort of fashion - there's an awful lot of land there too.

Right now, OTOH, it's raining. Anywhere that happens for long will be soaking up those rays 24 hours a day for the next few weeks, which can't be improving the overall balance any. Viz:
 

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1964 on: June 16, 2019, 09:01:40 PM »
The 12z EURO is a worst-case scenario for possible weather during the solstice. The Eurasian heatwave extends through almost the entire Central Arctic Basin at one point or the other and is remarkably consistent over most of the region. The time of year means these conditions will have especially outsized impact.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1965 on: June 16, 2019, 09:09:23 PM »
I can see how anti-cyclonic activity could cause this easy ice to disperse & melt big-time later in the season. Wouldn't necessarily need to make it out the Fram. It could even lift entirely off the CAA fringe. (IMHO that would be the final canary in the coal mine) If the ice is going thru a state-change we could see [more] unexpected events.

This season is extra-interesting to me thus far, not because of the "what-if" regarding an end-season record, but rather all the details & how they link to the overall picture; the math appears to be following a somewhat different formula this year thus far.

Time for my after-breakfast shot of Fernet Branca before I head to the barn & saddle up the horses.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1966 on: June 16, 2019, 09:21:42 PM »
The 12z EURO is a worst-case scenario for possible weather during the solstice. The Eurasian heatwave extends through almost the entire Central Arctic Basin at one point or the other and is remarkably consistent over most of the region. The time of year means these conditions will have especially outsized impact.
The prior run was even worse. This one makes the low persistent over CAA, chokes Fram and cools the CAB adjacent to Beaufort. This is all beyond day 5 though.
But yes, we're going to see really bad weather for the ice, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi and Beaufort too.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1967 on: June 16, 2019, 09:32:20 PM »
The only area that has a realistic shot to compensate for the sea ice in CAA is in the northern Greenland Sea. As we can see from Frivs map, that area was still ice covered at the minimumback in 2012. The last few years the ice has melten out there.  Just my opinion.


I think that the other area that I took a chance would be the pole side of the Russian side.

but it must be noted to that once you reach like 85 degrees north towards the pole.

The actual area of surface that is being covered becomes so small


The Western CAB between 75-80N is much larger in comparison.


The CAA water ways are relatively far South too.


This phenomenom will likely bring a cliff dive in extent in July

We might see record extent loses in July.

Because the ESS and Chuchki will likely completely melt out during July.

The ESS has already drained pretty much over the entire area.

So now we know that the Melt lakes are gone and what's left is going to be that darkish slushy ice.

obviously atmosphere temperature pressure conditions help when it comes to losing surface Mass.

But on full Sunny days over the ESS we can probably expect about 4 to 8 cm of ice to get roasted.

Obviously 200cm/6cm = 33 days.

Obviously this is just a back-of-the-envelope calculation.

Over the next week if it's not already started the bottom of the ice and a large part of the SS along the continental shelf probably has warmed up above -1. 5 Celsius Mark at the bottom of the ice.

As Bowie evidence in the past has shown.  Once we have this happening. 

we typically lose about 1. 5 to 2 cm for every 0. 5 degrees Celsius in warmth daily.

So if if the bottom of the ice in the ESS is 0 degrees Celsius.  We could expect taking in the factor of their low salinity about 3 to 4 cm at bottom ice melt a day

remember though that this heat has to constantly be injected into this system.

If abruptly the weather above goes from warm and sunny too cold and cloudy.

it won't take very long for the warmth beneath ice to evaporate and nothing to stop or slow down substantially.


okay I'll stop rambling on now but the most important thing right now is that the weather forecast shows nothing of that.

in fact after a short 36-hour repreave of a little bit of low clouds and cooler mid-level Temps


All-weather models show a massive influx of heat first through a strong isobaric gradient bringing incredible warmth and moisture end of the ESS area.

Then a sprawling Ridge not just at the surface but top-down with very very warm air will engulf the entire Pacific half of the Arctic.

the actually worst part of all that for the ice will probably be that shot of warm moist air of the land mass.


In this case there will be mixing and the winds will be strong enough to break any surface inversion meaning that that fool crushed of the heat moisture will hit the ice so we'll probably see and enhance loss of ice right after probably see more moisture in the satellites on that surface of the ice.


Long story short the Pacific side is about to get wrecked

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1968 on: June 16, 2019, 09:49:19 PM »
Around day 5-6.


the output is burying a model run tomorrow run but it's pretty consistent over a huge torch over almost the entire Arctic
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Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1969 on: June 16, 2019, 10:41:31 PM »
25cm loss in thickness in 1 day in some areas.

That's not what these maps are showing. Don't use them for thickness during summer. They say something about how wet the ice is, roughly. That's it.

Why does any credible organization put out a map with a legend for ice thickness that reveals something else?

Is this basically a misleading garbage map?

Most people on this forum are aware of the limitations in SMOS data during the summer.  Some people like to look at the map for potential evidence of “wetness.” 

Below is a link to an article about the SMOS data product if you are interested in learning more about it.

http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf

Lars Kaleschke is a well respected scientist who recently posted on this forum. 

Additionally, the University of Bremen does not offer data concerning SMOS thickness in the summer.  However, these maps are still available, which is nice because they do offer some interesting information. 

Next time try a little independent research before attacking a well respected university and their data product. 


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1970 on: June 16, 2019, 11:24:21 PM »
I disagree about the importance of CAA or Beaufort.  I see East Siberian Sea as the key area.  Due to circulation this area is mostly(all?) first year ice, but it tends to converge and become thicker than other areas of first year ice.  In most years there is a tongue of ice left at minimum extending towards ESS.   The big distinguishing factor for record smashing years is that the ESS ice was smashed and this extra ice disappeared.  While this year surface melt in ESS started a bit later than 2012 current conditions in that region are quite spectacular.  Also PIOMAS suggests that ice in this region was thinner at the start of the melt season.

Another area that can make up for extra ice in CAA or Beaufort is the Laptev.  I'm pretty sure this is the fastest start to the melt season in the Laptev, and strong southerlies are forecast for the foreseeable future.  If conditions continue to favour melt in the Laptev (big if) until September then we will be looking at the blue ocean edge getting substantially closer to the north pole than ever before. 

Overall I'd put beating 2012 at 50/50.  Definitely a slower start to the surface melt season.  But we have 7 years of warming and melting trend since 2012.  Do we still need a perfect melting season to beat a record that is 7 years old? 

edit:  Just having a quick hunt through EOSDIS views I'd say that the 2007 surface melt season start had about the same lead over 2012 as 2012 does over 2019.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 11:52:08 PM by Michael Hauber »
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1971 on: June 17, 2019, 12:11:01 AM »
I disagree about the importance of CAA or Beaufort.  I see East Siberian Sea as the key area.  Due to circulation this area is mostly(all?) first year ice, but it tends to converge and become thicker than other areas of first year ice.  In most years there is a tongue of ice left at minimum extending towards ESS.   The big distinguishing factor for record smashing years is that the ESS ice was smashed and this extra ice disappeared.  While this year surface melt in ESS started a bit later than 2012 current conditions in that region are quite spectacular.  Also PIOMAS suggests that ice in this region was thinner at the start of the melt season.

Another area that can make up for extra ice in CAA or Beaufort is the Laptev.  I'm pretty sure this is the fastest start to the melt season in the Laptev, and strong southerlies are forecast for the foreseeable future.  If conditions continue to favour melt in the Laptev (big if) until September then we will be looking at the blue ocean edge getting substantially closer to the north pole than ever before. 

Overall I'd put beating 2012 at 50/50.  Definitely a slower start to the surface melt season.  But we have 7 years of warming and melting trend since 2012.  Do we still need a perfect melting season to beat a record that is 7 years old?

The ESS and Laptev melted out completely in 2012 so it's impossible for them to make up a shortfall vs. 2012 if a good portion of the CAA remains intact.

The place to make it up is a place that Friv sees as being protected. It's the portion of the western basin between 75-80N that sits on top of the CAA.

Either the Beaufort needs to make a strong push to the east or the pack needs to lift off the coast and rotate toward the Atlantic.

If you want a long shot scenario. The water in the Bering Sea has been steadily warming and is in the  5-10C range. If you get a stubborn low pressure system in the right spot near the Bering Strait, you can send a steady stream of that warmth into the Arctic.

If the Coriolis effect is applicable, the warm water entering from the Pacific would travel to the Western Canadian basin.

The odds of a record low aren't high, but the warming oceans are bringing more scenarios into play.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1972 on: June 17, 2019, 12:35:14 AM »
. . . or the pack needs to lift off the coast and rotate toward the Atlantic.


This is a good point.  I am not aware of a year with the amount of lift off north of the CAA that we are seeing this year this early. 

Zack’s temperature anomaly map seems different from Friv’s conclusion that the western CAB has been protected this year.  Zack’s map shows warm weather (relative to normal) over that ice. The ice in the western CAB is very fractured and has been swirling around for a while now. 

Someone mentioned a few days ago that the open water in the Beaufort might become a new killing zone.  I have not seen that so far, but it is still early in the season.

If the pack continues to lift off from north of the CAA, and the open water in the Beaufort heats up, then this year will be on a new and different track from what we have seen before when the last strong ice remained firmly attached to Greenland and the CAA. 

What that means is anyone’s guess.  But, things continue to be very interesting. 
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 12:56:45 AM by Rod »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1973 on: June 17, 2019, 01:47:10 AM »
I call it protected because it's the only cool spot in the cryosphere.


First week of June.
Second week of June.
Then the 11-14th

For now that area is cool.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1974 on: June 17, 2019, 01:54:58 AM »
Its very important to note they almost the entire cryosphere it seems with melting to some degree.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1975 on: June 17, 2019, 01:59:21 AM »
Agreed.  And, from 6/8/19 - 6/14/19 the western CAB has clearly been colder than normal.  Before that, even in your first image, that was not the case. 

We will see how things turn out.  I agree that if the western CAB holds up we will be far from any minimums.  However, I still think that ice has been pressured this spring and early summer, and looks really weak right now. 

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1976 on: June 17, 2019, 02:02:21 AM »

The ESS and Laptev melted out completely in 2012 so it's impossible for them to make up a shortfall vs. 2012 if a good portion of the CAA remains intact.


But if they melt out early then melt continues into the Central Arctic Basin, and it is possible get much closer to the North Pole in the Laptev and ESS directions than we did in 2012.

CAA is Canadian Arctic Archipelago not Central Arctic Basin (CAB).
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Rod

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1977 on: June 17, 2019, 02:20:07 AM »

The ESS and Laptev melted out completely in 2012 so it's impossible for them to make up a shortfall vs. 2012 if a good portion of the CAA remains intact.


But if they melt out early then melt continues into the Central Arctic Basin, and it is possible get much closer to the North Pole in the Laptev and ESS directions than we did in 2012.

CAA is Canadian Arctic Archipelago not Central Arctic Basin (CAB).

Rich is concerned as he should be, but he is still learning.  He comes across too strident sometimes but that is just his way.

I have been impressed that he really seems to be trying to learn, and he has been an active contributor to this forum. 

I just hope we don’t get one of his stubborn low pressure systems that forces water through the Bering Strait.  🤔

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1978 on: June 17, 2019, 02:52:49 AM »
. . . or the pack needs to lift off the coast and rotate toward the Atlantic.


This is a good point.  I am not aware of a year with the amount of lift off north of the CAA that we are seeing this year this early. 
....
If the pack continues to lift off from north of the CAA, and the open water in the Beaufort heats up, then this year will be on a new and different track from what we have seen before when the last strong ice remained firmly attached to Greenland and the CAA. 

What that means is anyone’s guess.  But, things continue to be very interesting.

As an additional note, this crack, in approximately the same dimensions, has been present for some time (see below).  It was a little less evident back then because this area was very often shrouded in cloud.   I remember observing this crack earlier in May and having similar thoughts.... One possible consolation is that the opening hasn't changed much since.  I share your concern that  it may well develop quickly if the Laptev and ESS melt out early and there is room for the Central Basin pack to move towards the Siberian side.

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1979 on: June 17, 2019, 02:55:33 AM »
Another area that can make up for extra ice in CAA or Beaufort is the Laptev.  I'm pretty sure this is the fastest start to the melt season in the Laptev, and strong southerlies are forecast for the foreseeable future.  If conditions continue to favour melt in the Laptev (big if) until September then we will be looking at the blue ocean edge getting substantially closer to the north pole than ever before. 

I think the Laptev ice this year is just above 2014 and 2018 in terms of extent but both of those years did see quite sharp retreats in the ice by the end of the season. The way things are going we may have a similar situation to 2014 on the Atlantic side where the ice towards the Barants is quite extensive but very little towards Laptev but its too early to guess what this years ice shape will be with any major confidence.

The huge open water and the ice floes that has open water between them is a concern and is almoat unprecedented apart from 2016 so that could well be a factor later on in the season and yes the ESS is a major talking point at the moment but at this stage,in terms of extent its nothing out of the ordinary. I mean if it looked like how it was in 2017 then there would be more concern for sure.

Also imo,  there does not seem to be much wind around the ESS atm therefore not much ice movement. Wind most certainly plays a part in the melting season and the ESS ia not really forecast much of that for the next few days although hints are the area to the east of Wrangel island could get hit by southerlies by around day 5 or so, if that happens the ice will head northwards and open water could become more extensive.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1980 on: June 17, 2019, 03:04:23 AM »

As an additional note, this crack, in approximately the same dimensions, has been present for some time (see below). 

Good point Pagophilus.  That is what has me concerned. The “crack” was there even when the high pressure area was over the Beaufort so we can’t blame it on the current low pressure system.

Will it continue to lift off?  No one knows. But if it does, it could be an unprecedented event that changes how we look at things.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 03:10:43 AM by Rod »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1981 on: June 17, 2019, 03:07:57 AM »
Is a classic  dipole required fora record low? Or its effect - substantial ice export and heat transport into the basin?

Lows waltzing around the Kara Sea pumping ice and the cold to doom in the Barents Sea  and sucking heat from Eurasia in, combined with unprecedented sea temps for the date in Chukchi and northern Bering Seas may be enough since the pack has deteriorated into a more mobile soup than in 2012, Atlantification is further advanced underneath, and there have been record low maxima etc. Maybe the Blue Water Event can be ruled out for reasons Friv outlines, but I think its 2 early to say 2012 won't be beaten, we are not even at solstice

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1982 on: June 17, 2019, 03:25:45 AM »
Climate Reanalyzer 3 day 2m temp forecast:  Max temps to exceed 0 C across almost the entire CAB, and be especially high in the ESS and Laptev.  Temps also notably high in the central CAA and the northern margins of Greenland.   
Min temps to exceed 0 C in the ESS, central Laptev and along the north Greenland coast. 

All of the areas that seem headed for high temperatures (max and min) were under clear, sunny skies at the last, June 16, pass of the Worldview cameras.  I always think insolation is a neglected factor.  These areas are getting a lot of solar energy.  I think that this is likely to continue, especially in the Laptev and ESS given the prevailing winds forecast from hot, sunny Siberia for the next few days

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1983 on: June 17, 2019, 03:44:48 AM »
The ice around the entrance to the Nares Strait has just come free from cloud with today's (June 17) Worldview images.  This ice is looking mighty blue (see below).

I was surprised at this blueness of this Nares area ice.  I went back through Worldview images for the June15-17 period as far as 2001.  (I looked at each year over a three day window to avoid the risk of being fooled by clouds over the ice.) The only years where the ice was comparatively as blue in this area, to my eye, were 2012 and 2016.   In both of those years, the northern end Nares Strait seemed to be pretty much blocked by ice.  This year, the entrance to the Strait is comparatively free. 

I am not sure what this might mean, but the blueness of the ice and the openness of the Strait does seem to be an unusual and possibly troubling combination of features.  And yes, I am aware that there were record minima in 2012 and 2016, but it is way beyond my pay grade to even suggest a causal connection.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 04:03:07 AM by Pagophilus »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1984 on: June 17, 2019, 03:54:08 AM »
The ice around the entrance to the Nares Strait has just come free from cloud with today's (June 17) Worldview images.  This ice is looking mighty blue (see below).

I was surprised at this blueness of the ice.  I went back through Worldview images for the June15-17 period as far as 2001.  (I looked at each year over a three day window to avoid the risk of being fooled by clouds over the ice.) The only years where the ice was comparatively as blue in this area, to my eye, were 2012 and 2016.   In both of those years, the northern end Nares Strait seemed to be pretty much blocked by ice.  This year, entrance to the Strait is comparatively free. 

I am not sure what this might mean, but it the blueness of the ice and the openness of the Strait does seem to be an unusual combination of features.


Has the impact on the Western CAB  by an open Nares Strait been underestimated this season. Not unreasonable to expect it to remain open and become more damaging, since most of the MYI has now gone.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1985 on: June 17, 2019, 04:22:18 AM »
Looking at the ESS, temps on the shore have been crazy. Pevek has hit new record highs four days in a row. Luckily for the ice, the winds have been mostly parallel to the coast rather than directly from the south, and in a couple of days will swing from the north, finally cooling the land for a bit.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1986 on: June 17, 2019, 05:59:39 AM »
As soon as the snow melted Siberia started burning, now it is just spreading and accelerating. Despite a limited view so far, the 17th looks like the worst day yet. The impending +500MB push due to the Indian Ocean cyclone (now only 4-5 days out after modeling resolved differences)
will arrive almost precisely at solstice, the timing could not be worse.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1987 on: June 17, 2019, 06:05:40 AM »
No one can predict the weather, but when Rick Thoman and Lars Kaleschke think there is going to be a lot of melting, it is worth paying attention. 

Still early in the melt season, but things continue to look bad for the season.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1988 on: June 17, 2019, 06:25:46 AM »
The storm has further fractured the pack north of FJI, which was already looking fragmented with a lot of open water between floes.

The Uni Bremen extent map shows dispersion artifacts around 86N, north of FJI so I tried to have a look. Too cloudy as yet for worldview, and Sentinel appears to have a large pole hole, so I went about as far north as I could get (82.6, 51.85)It's way too cloudy even for sentinel to get enough images for animation, so I've included images from the 11th and today, along with an image of a minimum scenario which would challenge 2012. In short I think the Laptev bite, could go way north, with lots of ice flushed into the Barents and Atlantic.

If the weather continues bad in most sectors, and then a compaction event, (like 2012 I think) pushing ice onto north west Greenland and the inner CAA without the garlic press going overdrive,the min could challenge the record

Aluminium

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1989 on: June 17, 2019, 08:10:46 AM »
June 12-16.

2018.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1990 on: June 17, 2019, 08:57:59 AM »
00z EURO puts a D6-10 averaged 576DM bullseye over the Central Arctic.


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1991 on: June 17, 2019, 09:05:11 AM »
SMOS is showing a record low dry ice area for 16 June.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 09:20:08 AM by slow wing »

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1992 on: June 17, 2019, 09:10:15 AM »
00z EURO puts a D6-10 averaged 576DM bullseye over the Central Arctic.



Could we see a record break hottest JUNE in Arctic region ?  As we know the maximum insolation ranges from 6.1-7.15 for almost 45 days. This year melt pond is a bit late begin around 6.8 (almost one week later compared with 2012). It seems that clear sky will probably hover around arctic before 7.1. If high pressure could dominate the arctic region until 7.15, the insolation will demonstrate its greatest effect to ice. Then, in August the storm frequently form and sweep up all the thin ice. This is the perfect weather pattern to kill all the sea ice in Arctic.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 09:25:38 AM by peterlvmeng »

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1993 on: June 17, 2019, 09:14:26 AM »
Meanwhile, the Slater 50-day prediction is dropping like a rock, now showing 5.75 million square kilometers for 5 August 2019.

If the Barents and Laptev sectors will already be getting destroyed by then, as the plot suggests, then a new record low minimum extent would be quite on the cards.


That's not even to mention the prospects for a record low sea ice volume, which is more likely - and, for me, more concerning - than an extent record.


P.S. does anyone know the meaning of the LIGHT blue line in the Slater graph? I have already asked previously in the 'stupid questions' thread and nobody answered there.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1994 on: June 17, 2019, 10:05:46 AM »
Quick contribution...

Sea ice area is my gauge for health right now.

The Kara is in the middle of the pack, but with the general heat on the Siberian side, has good melt momentum and ice that is relatively thin. It doesn't really affect the rest of the basin, and almost certainly will empty this year.

CAB is above average, as is the Barentz. Having the CAB high is good, Barentz, probably not, as the heat from the Atlantic over the last few years has slaughtered any ice showing up there.  I don't see this year as any different, and the high numbers are a direct result of export from the CAB.

To that point... higher numbers in the CAB are probably a result of ice being dumped into it from the Beaufort and Laptev.  It may not be something we should be consoling ourselves with.

Also regarding the Beaufort... in spite of not being hit as hard as many other regions, it *still* is at or near the lowest area its been in our records for this date, *as* *is* the Chukchi.

The ESS is being hammered and is flirting with dropping to its lowest levels ever. The Laptev *is* at it's lowest point for the date, ever, and both are well covered in meltponds and being torched by both sunshine and high air temps which are supporting the further spread of melt ponds.

To sum up, despite earlier observations about the CAB and CAA possibly buttressing the pack, even without the appearance of serious preconditioning in those areas, the sheer weight of momentum around the basin is intimidating.  I'm not sure the lack of conditioning in the Beaufort can make a difference.  I'm pretty sure the CAB isn't resistant enough to prevent ice being shoved into much warmer areas where it will melt out late in the season.

I'm with Michael Hauber; In the scale of things, I'd keep my estimate of a new low slightly more pessimistic (read: probable) than Neven's, at "Possible" rather than "Unlikely".  The weather is really dangerous right now on the Siberian and Pacific sides and shows little sign of backing off until after the Solstice, if then. 

With nominal weather, I'd say beating 2016 for second is a near certainty. The question is, how much harder will the massive pulse of heat roaring in from Siberia wreck the ice harder?  After that, will we get a reprieve in July?  More and more, I think we're going to need it to avoid passing 2012.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1995 on: June 17, 2019, 10:34:25 AM »
HOLY SMOKES THE 00Z EURO IS NUTS AFTER DAY 4
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1996 on: June 17, 2019, 10:39:23 AM »
Nuts is a good word Friv. The only area that won't be affected is the CAA. All other areas are going to be severly burned. This is also showing up in the EC 00z ENSEMBLE! Prepare for Onslaught to come!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1997 on: June 17, 2019, 11:21:16 AM »
maybe all the ice is coming to Ireland. Its freezinger than usual here this Summer.

The last time it was this bad in Ireland was 2012 and before that 2007

Yes....2012 ....and 2007,  the ice cliffs

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1998 on: June 17, 2019, 11:21:27 AM »
Meanwhile, the Slater 50-day prediction is dropping like a rock, now showing 5.75 million square kilometers for 5 August 2019.

P.S. does anyone know the meaning of the LIGHT blue line in the Slater graph? I have already asked previously in the 'stupid questions' thread and nobody answered there.

Each day a prediction is made 50 days in advance based on the most recent ice conditions, and a statistical assessment of how much ice is likely to melt given those conditions.  These predictions are plotted as the light blue line.  The fact that it is dropping like a rock is not a prediction near the end is not a prediction that ice will go along following the blue line and then drop like a rock.  It is a reflection of the fact that conditions several days ago were better.  Updating the prediction based on changes in the last few days has caused the prediction to drop like a rock.

If the methodology was updated to give a prediction of change over time, my guess is that it would be a reasonably smooth line joining today's ice extent with the predicted ice extent in 50 days time - at the end of the thin blue line.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #1999 on: June 17, 2019, 11:25:33 AM »
With so much warmth in the Arctic and cooler than average temps over a large part of the mid-latitudes, my ultimate concern might be 'will we see the eventual breakdown of the jet-stream'?  I'd have to guess this is still years if not decades away, but having a much lower temp diff between the two should ultimately allow for warmth just to travel as it wants north. 

The 250mb level of the jet is now starting to act like the 500mb level in something that might be called a 'closed loop of circulation'... where the jet just takes a shortcut (over Greenland in this screen capture from two days ago) and skips going around the whole planet.  In this screen shot there are at least 20 some cyclones!  Like cogs in a wheel, it would seem to me these cyclones allow warmth to simply jump up the fastest path north!  I'm not experienced enough to know how common such numbers of cyclones are at the 500mb height, but given the decresing temp difference and waviness, we could be witnessing what a breakdown of the jet ultimately will look like?!! 

 
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