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Eco-Author

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2000 on: June 17, 2019, 11:32:11 AM »
To be about a million sq. km below, say, third place and beating out a super el-nino year by a good margin is ASTONISHING! 
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2001 on: June 17, 2019, 12:39:06 PM »
Meanwhile, the Slater 50-day prediction is dropping like a rock, now showing 5.75 million square kilometers for 5 August 2019.

P.S. does anyone know the meaning of the LIGHT blue line in the Slater graph? I have already asked previously in the 'stupid questions' thread and nobody answered there.

Each day a prediction is made 50 days in advance based on the most recent ice conditions, and a statistical assessment of how much ice is likely to melt given those conditions.  These predictions are plotted as the light blue line.  The fact that it is dropping like a rock is not a prediction near the end is not a prediction that ice will go along following the blue line and then drop like a rock.  It is a reflection of the fact that conditions several days ago were better.  Updating the prediction based on changes in the last few days has caused the prediction to drop like a rock.

If the methodology was updated to give a prediction of change over time, my guess is that it would be a reasonably smooth line joining today's ice extent with the predicted ice extent in 50 days time - at the end of the thin blue line.

Thanks Michael. However, you are describing what I understand to be plotted as the DARK blue line, which is labelled "50 Day Lead-Time Forecast". I have the same understanding as you on the meaning of that line.

My question concerned the other blue line on that plot, the LIGHT blue line labelled "Anom. Forecast", which may well be short for "Anomaly Forecast". I have no idea how this line was derived.

JayW

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2002 on: June 17, 2019, 12:52:36 PM »

P.S. does anyone know the meaning of the LIGHT blue line in the Slater graph? I have already asked previously in the 'stupid questions' thread and nobody answered there.

I'd love to be corrected if wrong, but my understanding is that the light blue line treats the ice anomaly as a whole, whereas Slater looks at each grid cell independently.  But I could be misunderstanding.

Unrelated, here is the last week in the Beaufort blender.

Requires a click
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2003 on: June 17, 2019, 01:00:37 PM »
My question concerned the other blue line on that plot, the LIGHT blue line labelled "Anom. Forecast", which may well be short for "Anomaly Forecast". I have no idea how this line was derived.
The "anomaly forecast" simply assumes that the anomaly stays constant, i.e. if we are currently 2 million below average, then in 50 days' time we will still be 2 million below average. Note that the anomaly in this case measured relative to the 1988-2013 average.

From the "About the Plots" section:

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
Quote
"Anomaly Persistence uses data from 1988-2013 as the mean state."

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2004 on: June 17, 2019, 01:34:18 PM »
Here is the last week in the Beaufort blender.
Great animation.
No matter what extent claims, this movement into previously warmed open water isn't good in any way for the ice. A good look at the two large floes at the bottom of the image shows them agreeing, while breaking up.

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2005 on: June 17, 2019, 01:51:20 PM »
Quote
this movement into previously warmed open water isn't good in any way for the ice.

I agree with you but I have my doubts.

On one hand, the ice pushed into lower latitudes is exposed to more sunlight, increasing melting.

On the other hand, that energy would have been absorbed by the oceans leading to a warmer ocean. A warmer ocean may prolong the melting season and delay the freezing season.

 Thus, it may be that temporary high albedo this close to solstice may help lower the total energy in the system by season's end.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2006 on: June 17, 2019, 02:29:37 PM »
Here is the last week in the Beaufort blender.
Great animation.
No matter what extent claims, this movement into previously warmed open water isn't good in any way for the ice. A good look at the two large floes at the bottom of the image shows them agreeing, while breaking up.

Not only that, the ice then gets 'stetched' from higher latitudes which causes open water to develop between the floes making it more vulnable later on in the season. In situations where a region suffers an early melt its probably better for the ice long term if the line just flatlined as that means the ice is not spreading out and remaining more compact.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2007 on: June 17, 2019, 02:32:19 PM »
Quote
this movement into previously warmed open water isn't good in any way for the ice.

I agree with you but I have my doubts.

On one hand, the ice pushed into lower latitudes is exposed to more sunlight, increasing melting.

On the other hand, that energy would have been absorbed by the oceans leading to a warmer ocean. A warmer ocean may prolong the melting season and delay the freezing season.

 Thus, it may be that temporary high albedo this close to solstice may help lower the total energy in the system by season's end.

Some more doubts...  If the ice floes are merely spread around in the system, wouldn't that keep the overall system albedo constant, rather than raising it?  In which case the oren's argument that this is not good for the ice seems to stand to me.  And it is probable that the floes would likely melt faster if they were pushed further south because the water is warmer, with increased sunlight being of lesser importance.  If the waters are warmer then that would melt floes rapidly and lower the overall system surface albedo pretty quickly, I would think.
 
Or are you thinking that south-drifting floes lower raise (later edit, sorry) the albedo at more southerly latitudes (where angle of insolation is greater and therefore solar radiation is absorbed more efficiently by water) and that would produce a net decrease in system energy absorption?  (Not to mention that more watts are received per square meter at more southerly latitudes.)  Again, I think that since warmer waters are more significant in melting than insolation, one would have to go with water temperatures rather than differences in insolation.    Of course, I realize that there are other factors I am unaware of...
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 04:06:11 PM by Pagophilus »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2008 on: June 17, 2019, 02:40:25 PM »
Tealight's graphs show Albedo Warming Potential graphs still chasing 2016 for 2nd place.
One of the reasons I am still plonking for 2nd place area and extent minimum this year (at 4 million km2 JAXA daily extent minimum so a lot above 2012).
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 02:52:00 PM by gerontocrat »
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Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2009 on: June 17, 2019, 03:01:45 PM »
Some more doubts...  If the ice floes are merely spread around in the system, wouldn't that keep the overall system albedo constant, rather than raising it?  In which case the oren's argument that this is not good for the ice seems to stand to me.  And it is probable that the floes would likely melt faster if they were pushed further south because the water is warmer, with increased sunlight being of lesser importance.  If the waters are warmer then that would melt floes rapidly and lower the overall system surface albedo pretty quickly, I would think.

Yes, in fact if the floe melts faster or develops meltponds faster accumulative albedo for the season should be lowered. Down goes my theory.
 
Quote
Or are you thinking that south-drifting floes lower the albedo at more southerly latitudes (where angle of insolation is greater and therefore solar radiation is absorbed more efficiently by water) and that would produce a net decrease in system energy absorption? (Not to mention that more watts are received per square meter at more southerly latitudes.)   

I was thinking mostly that and even considered warmer waters. But I didn't consider melt ponding on the floe until you mention it.

Quote
Again, I think that since warmer waters are more significant in melting than insolation, one would have to go with water temperatures rather than differences in insolation.    Of course, I realize that there are other factors I am unaware of...

The cooling effect of large floes may give a bit of help to the smaller flows, but it seems to me it is too late to be significant.

Perhaps if it happened earlier in the season melt ponding would've been delayed and a significant impact obtained from increased extent. 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2010 on: June 17, 2019, 03:38:23 PM »
Every floe that fractures in the Beaufort increases extent and hastens melt

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2011 on: June 17, 2019, 04:41:02 PM »
FYI, Nasa Giss just reported that May 2019 was the third warmest behind 2016 and 2017.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2012 on: June 17, 2019, 04:50:37 PM »
Sea Ice Concentration, June 2 – June 16
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 03:55:19 AM by cavitycreep »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2013 on: June 17, 2019, 05:09:55 PM »
Sea Ice Concentration, June 2 – June 16 (click to animate)

I find those quite nice. Thanks for posting them. Keep it up. :)

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2014 on: June 17, 2019, 05:10:39 PM »
Every floe that fractures in the Beaufort increases extent and hastens melt
Indeed.
There's no many options for those floes. They're just floating in waters mixing already solar-heated water with a few degs in excess of melt temp. Big MYI floes of 2016 lasted until August, only a fraction here are MYI of such thickness as 2016.
For reference, see the freeboard of some floes in July 2016 when we were not sure these things were going to disappear. From the Healy.
They have the height of a small truck, that's a couple of meters of freeboard (probably was part of a ridged floe)

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2015 on: June 17, 2019, 05:11:08 PM »
With so much warmth in the Arctic and cooler than average temps over a large part of the mid-latitudes, my ultimate concern might be 'will we see the eventual breakdown of the jet-stream'?  I'd have to guess this is still years if not decades away, but having a much lower temp diff between the two should ultimately allow for warmth just to travel as it wants north. 

... we could be witnessing what a breakdown of the jet ultimately will look like?!!

This is not a movie preview. What you reference as something that may happen in the future is happening right now. There is no "upcoming event", it is a continuum. You can answer your own questions by taking what you wrote and changing the future tense into the present tense.

Perhaps the real question should be: How low will the temperature differential get, how fast and how soon?". The ongoing progressive loss of arctic sea ice is in the process of telling us that.

I don't know enough to say for sure, but it seems to me that sustained high temperature anomalies in multiple areas of the arctic are much more than just a warm spell.  The jet stream has broken down, but the remaining latent heat of fusion is allowing it to stumble on. This was predicted by people much more knowledgeable that I.

I think a lot of us are falling prey to IPCC-itis. That body has decided that everything is referenced to 2100, when all of us will be dead. ACC has been posited as something in the future for over a hundred years. I still have difficulty adjusting my own time frame, and it seems to be a moving target.

Keep in mind that the IPCC projects that the first BOE will occur in 2040 and then every 10 years after that.

ACC is now, and what we are seeing is the result of emissions that were released up to ~ 10 years ago, so buckle up.

Cheers!

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2016 on: June 17, 2019, 05:44:41 PM »
Sea Ice Concentration, June 2 – June 16 (click to animate)

Thank you -- a terrific animation.  The colors of low concentration ice make it particularly vivid.  In particular, for me, it shows:

--- The "bellying-out" out of the ice in the Beaufort, and the two tongues of ice spreading into the Barents Sea over the past few days... Those visuals go a long way to explaining the growing extent of ice on some days even while area has declined steeply.

---  The rapid export of ice through the Fram and the even more frantic squirting of ice through the Nares Strait.

And man, that Baffin Bay ice looks as though it is shrinking very rapidly...
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 05:53:46 PM by Pagophilus »

LDorey

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2017 on: June 17, 2019, 05:52:53 PM »
My understanding of tea lights graphs is that they don't model/account for cloud cover? (Please correct me if I'm wrong) And one of the defining characteristics of this season vs the last couple of of years when things where looking dire has been the clear skies....if anything between that graph, the overall mobility of the ice / dropping concentration, it makes me think we're headed for a cliff that has the potential to drop us below 2012...

L

(edited for spelling / clarity)

Tealight's graphs show Albedo Warming Potential graphs still chasing 2016 for 2nd place.
One of the reasons I am still plonking for 2nd place area and extent minimum this year (at 4 million km2 JAXA daily extent minimum so a lot above 2012).
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 06:53:05 PM by LDorey »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2018 on: June 17, 2019, 06:10:33 PM »
The Nares Strait stayed open through the winter, allowing for export of MYI. The Greenland melt season has started aggressively and shows little signs of slowing down. The positive NH snow anomalies have melted away. We have more surface melt in the basin than ever for the date with regular infusions of warmth from Siberia into the Arctic and near record warmth for the month of May. Barents extent and area are holding up due to the export of ice from the CAB and, with area dropping quickly and extent stubbornly refusing to drop, we have compactness dropping like a rock. With relatively clear skies over much of the CAB, insolation is high.

Taken individually, none of these are too much to worry about. Collectively, these could be considered a perfect storm. If these conditions continue, all we will need is a GAC in August to reach a new minimum. Not saying this will happen and I still believe a new minimum is unlikely but the stage is set.

meddoc

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2019 on: June 17, 2019, 06:25:46 PM »

Taken individually, none of these are too much to worry about. Collectively, these could be considered a perfect storm. If these conditions continue, all we will need is a GAC in August to reach a new minimum. Not saying this will happen and I still believe a new minimum is unlikely but the stage is set.

I used to be very pessimistic since about 2014, following the Melt Seasons as they developed- and we avoided the Bullet each & every Time.
But now, as I see the Jetstream completely broken, going around in Circles; I'm not that positive it'll get back together. As the Polar Vortex broke into smithereens, already in January, I had a bad Feeling for this Melt Season.
Hope to be wrong & too pessimistic, again!

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2020 on: June 17, 2019, 06:41:03 PM »
The Beaufort and Western Canadian Basin have been protected.

The GFS is on board with the euro for post day 4.

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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2021 on: June 17, 2019, 08:23:23 PM »
My understanding of tea lights graphs is that they don't model/account for cloud cover? (Please correct me if I'm wrong) And one of the defining characteristics of this season vs the last couple of of years when things where looking dire has been the clear skies....if anything between that graph, the overall mobility of the ice / dropping concentration, it makes me think we're headed for a cliff that has the potential to drop us below 2012...

Yes, but from my perspective, only up to a point.  The Laptev and ESS have had clear skies for more than a week now, and those clear skies are spreading outwards and northwards.  But there has been fairly consistent cloud cover over much of the ice pack around the N Pole and the Canadian side (a quick scan through Worldview indicates as much).  In addition, the DMI chart, showing temperatures N of 80 degrees, which looked like it was about to take off last week, now looks like it is reverting to normal (see below).  So while there are strong factors pointing towards this ending up as one of the five or even three lowest arctic minima, there are at least some other indicators that the core of the ice pack may be quite resistant to melting. 

dosibl

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2022 on: June 17, 2019, 08:42:27 PM »
We're not going to see major anomalies on the DMI 80n chart during summer until a nontrivial part of 80n is open water, so a lack of continuing anomaly there doesn't necessarily mean things are better or worse.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2023 on: June 17, 2019, 08:46:39 PM »
We're not going to see major anomalies on the DMI 80n chart during summer until a nontrivial part of 80n is open water, so a lack of continuing anomaly there doesn't necessarily mean things are better or worse.

To emphasize this point, here is the DMI chart for 2012 when we recorded our current record low minimum. As long as there is ice melting, the temperature will be pegged near 0C.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2024 on: June 17, 2019, 08:52:05 PM »
The euro brings THE HAMMER!!


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Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2025 on: June 17, 2019, 08:56:41 PM »
To emphasize this point, here is the DMI chart for 2012 when we recorded our current record low minimum. As long as there is ice melting, the temperature will be pegged near 0C.

Perspective and context is so important. This is a great example.

I have yet to figure out where all these wonderful charts are, so this sort of thing is really appreciated.

Cheers

thejazzmarauder

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2026 on: June 17, 2019, 09:32:43 PM »
As a layman, I don't really know what I'm talking about, so maybe someone can help me out. Frivolous, who seems to speak with some amount of authority/expertise, is posting 5-10 day forecasts; how much attention should we pay to those? I know that temp forecasts beyond a few days out are often wildly inaccurate, are long-range MSLP forecasts typically better?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2027 on: June 17, 2019, 09:36:08 PM »
'Protected' ice north of CAA, jun17, worldview aqua modis, heavy contrast and default. (click to run)
https://go.nasa.gov/2Kn1TGz

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2028 on: June 17, 2019, 09:38:43 PM »
To emphasize this point, here is the DMI chart for 2012 when we recorded our current record low minimum. As long as there is ice melting, the temperature will be pegged near 0C.

Perspective and context is so important. This is a great example.

I have yet to figure out where all these wonderful charts are, so this sort of thing is really appreciated.

Cheers

This might help:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

magnamentis

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2029 on: June 17, 2019, 09:39:34 PM »
As a layman, I don't really know what I'm talking about, so maybe someone can help me out. Frivolous, who seems to speak with some amount of authority/expertise, is posting 5-10 day forecasts; how much attention should we pay to those? I know that temp forecasts beyond a few days out are often wildly inaccurate, are long-range MSLP forecasts typically better?

anything beyond 5 days should not be taken too seriously while in case of temps and moisture etc over a large area like the arctic, at this time of the year, they have their value, especially if the various models/sources are in agreement.

once using 7-10 day forecasts it's especially important to clearly mention it so to put things into relative terms.

aperson

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2030 on: June 17, 2019, 09:44:36 PM »
As a layman, I don't really know what I'm talking about, so maybe someone can help me out. Frivolous, who seems to speak with some amount of authority/expertise, is posting 5-10 day forecasts; how much attention should we pay to those? I know that temp forecasts beyond a few days out are often wildly inaccurate, are long-range MSLP forecasts typically better?

It depends. Typically there is high variability around D5 on operational runs, e.g. GFS and ECMWF. If there is consistency between multiple runs, it may be indicating a pattern that models have higher confidence on appearing.

For anything past D5 we should only be posting ensemble model outputs instead of operational runs, e.g. GEFS and EPS, but we often don't. These ensemble runs are like their operational counterparts, however the initial conditions are modified slightly for each ensemble member to generate a spread of outputs that can better find divergent states or more confidently show that there is convergence on a given single state. The output for things like 500mb heights in ensembles then represents the blended state across all ensemble members rather than the single expected state that one model run sees.
computer janitor by trade

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2031 on: June 17, 2019, 09:54:02 PM »

This might help:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

Thanks, Dharma. That is one of my go-to sites so far, but the inner workings of DMI and Worldview (to name a few) are still a bit of a mystery :-)

For other newbies, another excellent feature is at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

You can select the years you want to look at, and although it's not obvious, you can click on any point in any year and pull up the concentration map. It is excellent for comparing years, with the usual caveats about concentration and it's limitations.

They regularly make improvements and I would like to see animations and side-by-side comparisons. I find the NSIDC very responsive to feedback.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2032 on: June 17, 2019, 09:59:17 PM »
We're not going to see major anomalies on the DMI 80n chart during summer until a nontrivial part of 80n is open water, so a lack of continuing anomaly there doesn't necessarily mean things are better or worse.
Got it.  Thank you.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2033 on: June 17, 2019, 10:58:42 PM »
Mercator (model) sea surface temperature (0m), may1-jun16

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2034 on: June 17, 2019, 11:17:13 PM »
As both GFS and ECMWF both hints of high pressure dominated weather over the Arctic basin it seems to be a likely evolution. One question is how the cold pool over Beaufort acts later in the time frame.

The Atlantic side may also take a big hit.

HapHazard

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2035 on: June 17, 2019, 11:51:15 PM »

I used to be very pessimistic since about 2014, following the Melt Seasons as they developed- and we avoided the Bullet each & every Time.

Used to be we needed weather events to be/align perfectly in order to have (near)record melt years.

We're now entering an era where we need the same to prevent such.  IMO, obviously.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2036 on: June 17, 2019, 11:53:54 PM »
As both GFS and ECMWF both hints of high pressure dominated weather over the Arctic basin it seems to be a likely evolution. One question is how the cold pool over Beaufort acts later in the time frame.

The Atlantic side may also take a big hit.


The ensembles are in great agreement.

Then the smos graphic really shows the warm penetration.

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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2037 on: June 17, 2019, 11:56:46 PM »
As both GFS and ECMWF both hints of high pressure dominated weather over the Arctic basin it seems to be a likely evolution. One question is how the cold pool over Beaufort acts later in the time frame.

The Atlantic side may also take a big hit.
It is curious how one run makes the low disappear from CAA/Beaufort, and the next brings it back. I guess this flip-flopping means more unreliable forecasts right now.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2038 on: June 18, 2019, 12:01:36 AM »
The Lincoln Sea is looking distinctly melt pondy today:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-17
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be cause

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2039 on: June 18, 2019, 12:17:02 AM »
IMO , you are correct HapHazard . The trouble with 2019 is that the die was cast before the end of Feb. by the continuous Fram export throughout the freezing season . All we are really left with now is to anticipate (or observe) the level of devastation . I have been confident of a top 2 finish since winter but still felt that weather would dictate the final outcome .. from a BOE to 2nd place . I have little doubt there will be open ocean to the pole whatever the final measurement of ice .
  Trouble is the weather in March , April and May continued to support export and early melt . The last 4 weeks are probably the warmest by far in the arctic basin for the time of year .  And now Friv is back waving red forecasts like there's no tomorrow ( he only does next week :) )
According to Zack Labe , May was the warmest ever in the Arctic . It looks increasingly likely that June will join it in 1st place . July has saved us from ice armageddon the last 2 years .. if it kept us in 2nd this year that would be a major win for the ice . I wouldn't bet on it . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2040 on: June 18, 2019, 01:12:04 AM »
What's really making this year exceptional is the coupling of stratospheric processes with sea ice and the lack thereof. The lack of sea ice in the fall and early winter in the Barents sea combined with high heat content in the waters off the southeastern coast of the U.S. plus El Niño led to powerful wave one energy transfer to the upper stratosphere in December. Extraordinarily warm waters in the Aleutians and a lack of sea ice in the Bering sea in December kicked in a strong wave 2 forcing event, like a New Year's eve bender and split the polar vortex into two, then three parts. Wave 2 amplifications are enhanced by the combination of warm water and lack of ice in both the Barents and Bering seas.

The anticyclonic air spiraled downwards through the rest of the winter blocking upwards cyclonic wave propagation into the stratosphere. The upper and middle stratosphere cooled and the whole column of air over the Arctic was cool by early spring then boom, the end stratospheric warming was supercharged and the whole atmosphere north of 60 degrees spiked a high fever.

Now it looks like that fever is going to continue into July. I have reviewed the warmest years plus a number of cool ones and random ones. I have seen no good contenders with this year for the intensity of the warmth of the Arctic atmospheric column into the upper stratosphere.

And then there's the persistent pattern of the jet stream crossing the pole from Siberia to Canada. This crazy jet stream track is transferring huge amounts of heat from central Eurasia to the Siberian seas, melting ice at rates that just might be unprecedented.

The jet stream hasn't broken down. It pretty much broke down and collapsed around the Arctic ocean in 2013 cutting off the continental heat from the ocean. This melt season it's doing the opposite, sending crazy amounts of continental heat towards the pole.

The sea ice area figures are telling us an inconvenient truth. Sea ice extent will soon take a dive.


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2041 on: June 18, 2019, 01:16:10 AM »
At longer lead times broader scale features are somewhat forecastable.  There has been a general theme of high towards the Pacific and low towards Europe/Atlantic over the last week or more, and this theme is forecast to continue out to 10 days, and I'd expect it to.  However small changes in placement of the high, and changes in how the high interacts with systems outside the Arctic can make a big change to how much heat is drawn into the Arctic, so really hard to tell whether there is going to be a big draw of heat from outside the Arctic out beyond maybe 4 or 5 days.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2042 on: June 18, 2019, 03:14:21 AM »
The Lincoln Sea is looking distinctly melt pondy today:


Alert, Nunavut set its all time high temperature record for June 16 yesterday.  Temps are going to continue to stay warm in that area for at least a few more days so melt ponding should continue.

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2043 on: June 18, 2019, 03:23:00 AM »
The high the models predict to set up over the Chukchi sea is forecast to be very cloudy. and relatively cool underneath despite ushering more heat in from Asia.

Windys forecast is for cloud base somewhere between 0-300m anywhere the surface temp is at or under about 1C. I've included a cloudbase and ground temp forecast, with the highlighted point just north of the transition from clear skies to heavy cloud-According to Windy the temperatures in the lower atmosphere will be: ( the figures in first column for the highlighted point, the 2nd column is for another point 2/3 of the way thru the circulation, in the CAB north of Alaska, at the same time).

-surface  *  1C       *     1C
-100m     *   1C      *    1C
-950hPa *   7C       *    4C
-925hPa *   12C     *    6C
-900hPa *   11C     *    6C
-850hPa *   10C     *    5C
-800hPa *   7C        *    2C

At least that half of the basin will have low albedo and little solar radiation will get in. But clouds hold in and reradiate longwave. I'm not going to attempt to do the maths, as my understanding is too poor, but it does seem to indicate a large transfer of energy to the ice of warmth from lower latitudes. That record wet ice fraction might go up some more



jdallen

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2044 on: June 18, 2019, 03:26:16 AM »
As a layman, I don't really know what I'm talking about, so maybe someone can help me out. Frivolous, who seems to speak with some amount of authority/expertise, is posting 5-10 day forecasts; how much attention should we pay to those? I know that temp forecasts beyond a few days out are often wildly inaccurate, are long-range MSLP forecasts typically better?
Generally, when someone like Friz who's been around for a while, or Neven posts forecasts outside of the 5 day envelope, it's to cue us in to trends to watch for, rather than suggesting its a certainty.

This season, the trends have been towards conditions that hurt the ice, seriously, in ways that haven't been true for a while, so those of us who've been around for a while, are a bit anxious about what we are seeing, and the long term trends that are playing out with reasonable consistency.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2045 on: June 18, 2019, 03:52:52 AM »
Quote
this movement into previously warmed open water isn't good in any way for the ice.

I agree with you but I have my doubts.

On one hand, the ice pushed into lower latitudes is exposed to more sunlight, increasing melting.

On the other hand, that energy would have been absorbed by the oceans leading to a warmer ocean. A warmer ocean may prolong the melting season and delay the freezing season.

 Thus, it may be that temporary high albedo this close to solstice may help lower the total energy in the system by season's end.

This close to solstice, the further north you are, the more insolation you receive, at least that's my understanding from the insolation graph Jim Hunt posts from time to time. So open water, and low albedo generally, are worse right now the further north they are. In some weeks(when exactly I'm not sure) the situation reverses, and eventually refreeze begins there while the periphery is still melting.

Edit: That's the insolation at top of atmosphere at any rate. Given the sun only gets up to ~23 degrees at solstice at the pole, less energy will make it directly to the surface, but it is constantly at that inclination, and its high enough to not be reflected by open water

Anyway the main thing for us here is the amount of energy transferred to the ice, whether now or later. Warmer water further north will prolong the melt season
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 04:06:42 AM by subgeometer »

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2046 on: June 18, 2019, 04:28:51 AM »
5 day forecasts (let alone 10) can't be trusted for the detail just the big picture(and don't trust too much). Big events predicted need to be flagged so we are ready to observe them

We've had the remarkable persistent pattern, where you can pretty much subsitute last weeks GFS for todays, with every day showing large areas of red along the Russian coast, apparently ad infinitum(and now extending to the Tamyr peninsular - soon only Greenland and inner CAA islands will have any snow).

The extent plateauing this week under these conditions is really ominous, the longer all this dispersal and flushing continues the worse for the minimum I fear

Archimid

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2047 on: June 18, 2019, 04:51:23 AM »
Interesting fast ice destruction by what looks like river runoff on the ESS.
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2048 on: June 18, 2019, 04:53:18 AM »


a model still are going towards a huge Ridge over two-thirds of the Arctic and now it's modeled that happen within 4 days.

it's not like we haven't seen warm air for a while anyways over half the Articles been blasted however this is a little bit bigger and will cause some major ice lost in the ESS.

is this just paying out and persist in early July we could see the SS collapsed earlier than we ever have seen
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2049 on: June 18, 2019, 05:56:59 AM »
Wonder how long it'll be before we have open water from the West coast of Baffin Island all the way to the Western Laptev?

Breman suggests it's not far off.

And how long until open water all the way around to Eastern Greenland? It's not much further off.