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ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2050 on: June 18, 2019, 06:43:45 AM »


a model still are going towards a huge Ridge over two-thirds of the Arctic and now it's modeled that happen within 4 days.

it's not like we haven't seen warm air for a while anyways over half the Articles been blasted however this is a little bit bigger and will cause some major ice lost in the ESS.

is this just paying out and persist in early July we could see the SS collapsed earlier than we ever have seen

Is this going to cause a large loss out of Fram?  Winds go from high pressure to low pressure right?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2051 on: June 18, 2019, 08:48:25 AM »
Melt ponds now also alongside the CAA.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2052 on: June 18, 2019, 10:07:45 AM »

Is this going to cause a large loss out of Fram?  Winds go from high pressure to low pressure right?

Winds "try" to go from high pressure to low pressure, but they are deflected by the Coriolis force/effect, which deflects them right in the northern hemisphere and left in the south. This means that in theory winds flow parallel to isobars rather than at right angles across them, as you would expect if the flow was straight from high pressure to low pressure. This is what produces the characteristic anti-clockwise circulation of low pressure systems (in the NH), and clockwise circulation of high pressure systems.

In practice, it's not quite that simple, as e.g. topography also affects air flow. If you look at a site like windy.com, you can get an idea of how the winds are actually flowing in relation to areas of high and low pressure.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2053 on: June 18, 2019, 10:27:45 AM »
And how long until open water all the way around to Eastern Greenland? It's not much further off.

See also the NWP thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg206491.html#msg206491
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Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2054 on: June 18, 2019, 03:57:31 PM »
An insight as to why the NSIDC chart is flattening out as we approach solstice?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2055 on: June 18, 2019, 04:57:58 PM »
An insight as to why the NSIDC chart is flattening out as we approach solstice?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

It is indeed a graph showing the NSIDC chart flattening out  as we approach solstice.

Unless I am looking at something very different than you, I see no insight as to why.

dnem

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2056 on: June 18, 2019, 05:05:48 PM »
An insight as to why the NSIDC chart is flattening out as we approach solstice?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Dispersion of the ice.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2057 on: June 18, 2019, 05:08:38 PM »
An insight as to why the NSIDC chart is flattening out as we approach solstice?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

It is indeed a graph showing the NSIDC chart flattening out  as we approach solstice.

Unless I am looking at something very different than you, I see no insight as to why.

I think she is looking for insights, not providing them.

KK, the explanation for the flattening of the extent loss curve is attributed, in many places in the Forum, to dispersing of ice in the Beaufort and Barents seas, primarily.
The ice in these places is spreading out as a result of local weather conditions.
This makes extent appear to increase.
Note that at the same time, Area is dropping as per expectations.
Neven posts compactness graphs that illustrate this neatly.
Soon, this dispersed ice will melt out, and or the winds will shift and extent will play catch up and fall off a cliff.
It will be interesting to see how far it falls.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2058 on: June 18, 2019, 05:31:32 PM »
Good answer SJ, but he, not she.

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2059 on: June 18, 2019, 05:34:22 PM »

I think she is looking for insights, not providing them.


Doh! I hadn't finished my first cup of coffee yet. I thought it was a URL problem.

Sorry for being dense Kat. Thanks Sebastian.

Sebastian is right and I would add, as other have, that extent is not a good indicator without added data for context, particularly during melting. The extent number doesn't differentiate between 100% ice and 40% ice, but it must be above 15%.

As sea ice concentration drops, as is happening now, there is a lot of space between individual floes, giving the ice plenty of room to move. A little bit of wind can quickly and easily do two things:

- It can compact sparse ice into a tight area which means the extent drops, even though there is no loss of ice.

- It can spread out existing ice, giving an appearance of more ice, and a higher extent, but if it is too spread out, it falls below the 15% threshold and "disappears" as far as NSIDC is concerned.

The dispersal of ice will hide the fact that ice has melted, giving the impression that melting has slowed or stopped.

So, theoretically, you could have 100 sq km at 100% turn into 500 sq km at 20% and then expand a bit more and vanish, with no change in actual ice volume.

All of this can happen very quickly, creating a confusing picture.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 05:42:00 PM by Pragma »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2060 on: June 18, 2019, 06:13:35 PM »
SMOS is showing a record low dry ice area for 16 June.

Where does the BEIGE pixel chart update?
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2061 on: June 18, 2019, 06:19:02 PM »
Extent flat lining is normal.  Especially when you consider how load already was.



Sea ice area the last week nose dived
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Retron

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2062 on: June 18, 2019, 06:27:48 PM »
Looks like it's about to kick off in the Laptev...

Yesterday's image vs today's, showing the fast ice crumbling. (Click to animate)


Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2063 on: June 18, 2019, 06:49:41 PM »

I think she is looking for insights, not providing them.


Doh! I hadn't finished my first cup of coffee yet. I thought it was a URL problem.

Sorry for being dense Kat. Thanks Sebastian.

Sebastian is right and I would add, as other have, that extent is not a good indicator without added data for context, particularly during melting. The extent number doesn't differentiate between 100% ice and 40% ice, but it must be above 15%.

As sea ice concentration drops, as is happening now, there is a lot of space between individual floes, giving the ice plenty of room to move. A little bit of wind can quickly and easily do two things:

- It can compact sparse ice into a tight area which means the extent drops, even though there is no loss of ice.

- It can spread out existing ice, giving an appearance of more ice, and a higher extent, but if it is too spread out, it falls below the 15% threshold and "disappears" as far as NSIDC is concerned.

The dispersal of ice will hide the fact that ice has melted, giving the impression that melting has slowed or stopped.

So, theoretically, you could have 100 sq km at 100% turn into 500 sq km at 20% and then expand a bit more and vanish, with no change in actual ice volume.

All of this can happen very quickly, creating a confusing picture.

Thanks all.  I will be watching for the expectant drop.  Oren is correct; he, not she.  I see a possible confusing by leaving the y off my first word, changing any to an.  Sorry.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2064 on: June 18, 2019, 07:34:09 PM »
RE wdmn
And how long until open water all the way around to Eastern Greenland? It's not much further off.

Newbie question - Is there modern precedence for open water all the way to Eastern Greenland?

Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2065 on: June 18, 2019, 07:47:09 PM »
RE wdmn
And how long until open water all the way around to Eastern Greenland? It's not much further off.

Newbie question - Is there modern precedence for open water all the way to Eastern Greenland?

No, not even close. I think the wdmn question is similar to asking when we have our first BOE.

Due to prevailing winds and currents, the ice tends to collect and ridge up along the north of the CAA and Greenland so I suspect that we would have a BOE first, but an ice free Greenland coast would not be far behind.

That said, as the jet stream gets crazier and crazier, I wouldn't make a hard bet on anything in the arctic.

wdmn

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2066 on: June 18, 2019, 08:19:23 PM »
My question was not intended to be about a BOE but about when ice would fully pull away from the shores)... Problem is that I meant to say Ellesmere and not Baffin.

So my two questions were:

When will there be open water from western Ellesmere Island to the eastern Laptev?

and:

When will there be open water from western Ellesmere Island to eastern Greenland (in other words: when will the preceding happen + have the Kara disconnected from land).

I might as well repost the image since it might make some more sense now...

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2067 on: June 18, 2019, 08:51:07 PM »
Two things of interest looking at today's model guidance for the next week. First, that new low that enters the Arctic from central Asia is projected to scoot very quickly across to the Canadian archipelago. Second, the persistence of the high pressure over the East Siberian sea -- GFS has it lasting into July (!) and ECMWF 12z operational shows the high continuing to build out well over a week. (Usual caveats that 5-10 day predictions not necessarily reliable etc. etc.)
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 09:11:41 PM by Greenbelt »

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2068 on: June 18, 2019, 08:54:55 PM »
Really? I am feeling the EC forecast has become pretty variable even at three or four day... maybe just a feeling. The overall picture, run to run, is quite turbulent.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2069 on: June 18, 2019, 09:03:50 PM »
EC 12z operational is absolutely BRUTAL at the end of the forecast period!!! Let's see what ensemble and Friv says...

If THAT forecast pans out and also later builds in over Greenland as the signs points to we might very well get a decent race with 2012 to the bottom.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2070 on: June 18, 2019, 09:12:38 PM »

When will there be open water from western Ellesmere Island to the eastern Laptev?

When will there be open water from western Ellesmere Island to eastern Greenland

Wdmn,
Pragma accurately wrote
Quote
Due to prevailing winds and currents, the ice tends to collect and ridge up along the north of the CAA and Greenland …
Short term weather events occasionally pull the ice off of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) (as is happening in the image you posted).  I'm not sure the entire stretch has been open at one time, yet, and stretches that have opened up haven't stayed open long.  NW Greenland was more open than ever before late last year (IIRC).

So, with Arctic ice getting more and more mobile, the possibility of a temporarily open route just north of the CAA and Greenland increases with time.  But for the 'route' to open long enough for a boat to get through may well have to wait until the Arctic approaches a BOE.  But that might not be too long from now!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

sedziobs

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2071 on: June 18, 2019, 09:54:57 PM »
I believe wdmn is referring to a route from western Ellesmere clockwise to eastern Greenland.

That is, Ellesmere > Beaufort > Chukchi > ESS > Laptev > Kara > Barents > Greenland

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2072 on: June 18, 2019, 09:55:33 PM »
The 0z ensemble said the same thing as the new 12Z deterministic model. Subsiding warm air continues to create a dome of hot high pressure over the Pacific side of the Arctic and the upper level low continues over the Barents sea in the ECMWF & updated GFS models.

The dome of warm air goes up into the middle stratosphere. That's why it's so persistent and why the models have been getting it right. It's like a mammoth in the living room.

The Laptev bight is going to make it to the pole if this keeps up into July. This is an epic meltdown.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2073 on: June 18, 2019, 10:24:15 PM »
You literally could not make a worse setup if you tried for the time of year. I wonder how epic our worst GAC will be and whether it will take until August to form. With all the open water and accumulation of heat vs. 2012 I could see it happening in July.


Stephan

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2074 on: June 18, 2019, 10:31:28 PM »
I think a low around Svalbard is worst for the ice as it allows on its eastern side to pull warmer air from Siberia into Kara and Laptev Seas and on the western side it helps to push ice through the Fram to the south.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2075 on: June 18, 2019, 10:32:08 PM »
Really? I am feeling the EC forecast has become pretty variable even at three or four day... maybe just a feeling. The overall picture, run to run, is quite turbulent.

Looks pretty consistent to me.

 The models are in remarkable agreement.

All the way into July.

Pretty rare.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2076 on: June 18, 2019, 10:32:59 PM »
I think a low around Svalbard is worst for the ice as it allows on its eastern side to pull warmer air from Siberia into Kara and Laptev Seas and on the western side it helps to push ice through the Fram to the south.

Yeah especially when the classic dipole anomaly sets up.
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Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2077 on: June 18, 2019, 11:11:23 PM »
Really? I am feeling the EC forecast has become pretty variable even at three or four day... maybe just a feeling. The overall picture, run to run, is quite turbulent.

Looks pretty consistent to me.

 The models are in remarkable agreement.

All the way into July.

Pretty rare.
OK. Following with interest :-)

slow wing

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2078 on: June 18, 2019, 11:15:11 PM »
SMOS is showing a record low dry ice area for 16 June.

Where does the BEIGE pixel chart update?
The links are both there.

All the SMOS maps are here. The page updates daily by adding the new daily maps at the bottom - so you have to scroll to the bottom. The specific map I post is [date]_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

Steven's graph is here. It, also, updates daily and the updating appears to be automated as it seems to update as soon as the SMOS map appears.

The daily updates may be at ~07:00 UTC, but I might be wrong on that.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2079 on: June 18, 2019, 11:28:20 PM »
SMOS_beige_pixels.png]a record low dry ice area[/url] for 16 June.

Wow.   Hardly a dry ice in the house.       ;)

(Thanks for the link and explanation to SMOS)
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 11:48:31 PM by Pagophilus »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2080 on: June 18, 2019, 11:43:02 PM »
Where does the BEIGE pixel chart update?
The links are both there.

All the SMOS maps are here. The page updates daily by adding the new daily maps at the bottom - so you have to scroll to the bottom. The specific map I post is [date]_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

For the current chart I think you can go directly to it at https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/thin-ice-thickness/
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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2081 on: June 18, 2019, 11:46:15 PM »
Smoke is now a prominent feature on both sides of the Pole as there was a major flareup (ongoing) in Canada on the 18th. The fires in NRN Russia are spreading / worsening more steadily.


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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2082 on: June 18, 2019, 11:47:18 PM »
I believe wdmn is referring to a route from western Ellesmere clockwise to eastern Greenland.

That is, Ellesmere > Beaufort > Chukchi > ESS > Laptev > Kara > Barents > Greenland

Correct.

I think Tor's point stands about the gap between the CAA and the CAB being temporary, meaning a path from Ellesmere to the Beaufort is unlikely to open for now.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2083 on: June 18, 2019, 11:52:03 PM »
Here's an SMOS question.

If a particular reqion was not currently melting AND was less than 50cm thick, what color would the pixel be able on the SMOS image?

During the winter, these images give us solid things nformation about ice thickness. During the summer they give us a hunch about what is melting. But if a particular location is both thin ( < 50 cm) and dry, then there is a weakness in the summer image.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2084 on: June 19, 2019, 12:32:34 AM »
I think a low around Svalbard is worst for the ice as it allows on its eastern side to pull warmer air from Siberia into Kara and Laptev Seas and on the western side it helps to push ice through the Fram to the south.
Succinctly put -- really sums up an important point for me.  But often the situation becomes more complex, especially at ground level.  So I checked out Nullschool's prediction for surface winds on and around July 21.  The results were pretty consistent for July 19-22.  An image of July 21 prediction is below. 

The situation on the ground may be different to what we fear, according to these predictions.  Strong winds are forecast to blow south between Svalbard and FJL, but weak winds will blow north against the direction of transport in the Fram Strait.  Similarly, the situation is mixed on the Siberian side... oblique winds may blow some heat into the Laptev while in the ESS winds are forecast to come from the north over the icepack, perhaps cooling the ESS.

We will see what actually comes to pass, and what comes to pass with the other recent predictions about impending threatening weather patterns in the Arctic.   

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2085 on: June 19, 2019, 12:45:47 AM »
On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

Dispersion is a significant issue along Russian and Pacific sectors were the ice has been jammed tight against the land.  It is normal in June for ice to start melting in these regions, but as fast ice and a more solid sheet in central basin breaks into floes these floes tend to spread out, but still get picked up as 100% concentration ice, and so typically ice is being lost but this loss is not being picked up in either area or extent.  A prime example of this is currently the area west of Wrangel Island in ESS where a significant area has broken into floes with water clearly visible, but most sensors still registering ice concentration at 100%.  Most sensors are picking up concentration drops on the fast ice which is purely melt pond, and further west in the Laptev region which is mostly melt ponding with some dispersion visible.
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Trebuchet

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2086 on: June 19, 2019, 01:07:50 AM »
On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

 This error happens every year so you are still comparing apples to apples and can even interpolate extra data from this. Stick around for this forum for a few years please :)
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Pragma

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2087 on: June 19, 2019, 01:39:34 AM »
On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

 This error happens every year so you are still comparing apples to apples and can even interpolate extra data from this. Stick around for this forum for a few years please :)

There was nothing that the OP said that was incorrect and it was probably quite informative to members that do not have your vast knowledge and experience, as evidenced by your extensive postings.

I found your response unnecessary, patronizing and unhelpful, smiley deflection notwithstanding.

Instead of being snarky, why don't you take the OP's lead and explain how extra data can be garnered?

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2089 on: June 19, 2019, 01:48:24 AM »
The ice in the Kara sea is rapidly melting but has been dispersed by low after low spinning around a larger vortex. Even when the air temperature is relatively cool, as it is now, there's enough Atlantic water in the Kara sea's subsurface waters to mix heat upwards under stormy conditions like these.


This weird weather has turned the Barents sea into an ice killing ground. There are multiple patches of think slushy ice that have been dispersed from the Kara sea into the Barents sea that will be gone in ten days.

Sterks

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2090 on: June 19, 2019, 01:53:52 AM »
On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

 This error happens every year so you are still comparing apples to apples and can even interpolate extra data from this. Stick around for this forum for a few years please :)
Say that to yourself, that guy has been around forever.

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2091 on: June 19, 2019, 02:32:36 AM »
Doesn’t matter how long anyone has been around, and I’ve been here way before him.

Hauber is a concern troll climate risk denier. He adds nothing to any discussion except to muddy the waters, and mislead others. Do not confuse his word salads and copy-pastes to intelligence. He is an expert troll that will always leave you wondering if he is discussing in bad faith. He is immune to evidence.

Regardless of what climate risk is being discussed, Hauber reflexively defends the most conservative position possible without appearing a complete climate denier.


On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

 This error happens every year so you are still comparing apples to apples and can even interpolate extra data from this. Stick around for this forum for a few years please :)
Say that to yourself, that guy has been around forever.

oren

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2092 on: June 19, 2019, 02:39:20 AM »
TeaPotty you should be ashamed of yourself. MH made a perfectly useful and informative post, and is certainly not a troll.

TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2093 on: June 19, 2019, 02:49:20 AM »
TeaPotty you should be ashamed of yourself. MH made a perfectly useful and informative post, and is certainly not a troll.

Nope, he is just confusing people.

Climate risk deniers are the ones who should be ashamed of themselves.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 03:48:04 AM by TeaPotty »

Paul

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2094 on: June 19, 2019, 03:27:45 AM »
You literally could not make a worse setup if you tried for the time of year. I wonder how epic our worst GAC will be and whether it will take until August to form. With all the open water and accumulation of heat vs. 2012 I could see it happening in July.



Not quite sure it's the worse as I think a strong high around Beaufort and low pressure in the Laptev tends to be the ultimate ice killer although given how thin the ice is these days I wonder if persistent strong cyclones could actually be worse as we saw what they did in 2010, 2013 and 2016 in terms of ice conditions around the pole if not nessasary in extent numbers. Either way I think a set up at around the 5th to roughly the 10th of July in 2015 is up there as one of the worse and the damage it did to the ice was incredible, get something similar this year then who knows what will happen.

The main caution I have with the forecasts is that some runs are now transferring a bit of energy from the low that is crossing the central Arctic in the next few days towards Wrangel Island which creates a mini vortex which might weaken the ESS high off a little. Even the ECM does this although in the longer range strengthens the high spectacularly although details at that range will change in the next run. However as we saw on the GFS 18Z it creates a different picture in the long run even though the trend is for pressure to remain high across the Pacific aside of the basin.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2095 on: June 19, 2019, 04:39:39 AM »
Really? I am feeling the EC forecast has become pretty variable even at three or four day... maybe just a feeling. The overall picture, run to run, is quite turbulent.

Looks pretty consistent to me.

 The models are in remarkable agreement.

All the way into July.

Pretty rare.
OK. Following with interest :-)

The models are in lockstep on continuing to bring very warm air and associated high pressure ridges over the Pacific half and Atlantic side for the foreseeable future.
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2096 on: June 19, 2019, 04:55:36 AM »
RE wdmn
And how long until open water all the way around to Eastern Greenland? It's not much further off.

Newbie question - Is there modern precedence for open water all the way to Eastern Greenland?

No, not even close. I think the wdmn question is similar to asking when we have our first BOE.

Due to prevailing winds and currents, the ice tends to collect and ridge up along the north of the CAA and Greenland so I suspect that we would have a BOE first, but an ice free Greenland coast would not be far behind.

That said, as the jet stream gets crazier and crazier, I wouldn't make a hard bet on anything in the arctic.


Without a solid pack to hold it back, a reversal of winds is enough to lift the pack off the Greenland or CAA coasts. There's been a number of partial liftoffs in recent years, like the one now along the edge of the CAA. So circumnavigating the pack may be possible prior to the BOE

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2097 on: June 19, 2019, 05:03:27 AM »
Here's an SMOS question.

If a particular reqion was not currently melting AND was less than 50cm thick, what color would the pixel be able on the SMOS image?

During the winter, these images give us solid things nformation about ice thickness. During the summer they give us a hunch about what is melting. But if a particular location is both thin ( < 50 cm) and dry, then there is a weakness in the summer image.

Anything less than 50cm thick will be gone soon enough from bottom melt evn if surface melt never commences there.

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2098 on: June 19, 2019, 05:15:44 AM »
On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

 This error happens every year so you are still comparing apples to apples and can even interpolate extra data from this. Stick around for this forum for a few years please :)
Say that to yourself, that guy has been around forever.


 Apologies to those concerned. That comment was out of hand, maybe I have been here too long watching our own destruction. I was here on the old forums and maybe I'm just burnt out by reading/looking at the same old, same old every summer for a years and years.

 Back to lurking...Out



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TeaPotty

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Re: The 2019 melting season
« Reply #2099 on: June 19, 2019, 05:22:52 AM »
On extent flattening, part of the issue is that ice loss in Kara has flattened due to low pressure keeping this area cool.  This area is often freefalling at this time of year.  Note also that area is not dropping fast because of a genuine reduction in area, but because of melt ponding.  I think it is more the fast drop in area rather than the slow drop in extent that is false.  Although the drop in area does reflect rapid surface melting, so while false in some sense, it is still significant and real loss of ice is likely to follow.

This error happens every year so you are still comparing apples to apples and can even interpolate extra data from this. Stick around for this forum for a few years please :)
Say that to yourself, that guy has been around forever.


 Apologies to those concerned. That comment was out of hand, maybe I have been here too long watching our own destruction. I was here on the old forums and maybe I'm just burnt out by reading/looking at the same old, same old every summer for a years and years.

 Back to lurking...Out

It really was not out of hand.

You can find Michael Hauber being called out and proven wrong on so much of the soft-denialism he peddles on this forum from years ago. It matters not to him.

Sure enough, Michael will ignore all evidence and keep posting the same wrong info again and again
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 06:09:34 AM by TeaPotty »