comparing a similar image from mid june 2012, hence around the same time of the year, with the final outcome that same year 2012, shows a very close match of the "beige" area with the final extent in september 2012
should the same apply for this year, means if only the beige remains and the remainder that is less than 50cm thick now, will melt out, we would be in for a nasty surprise.
as you all know my theory since long has been that one year we shall see a new record minimum simply due to the fact that there is almost only 1st year ice left that can melt out without special conditions happening. all it will take in such a case is a shift, meaning that a formerly stable part would melt out cause by a shift in regions with high melting, while the other regions would melt out normally due to last years late freeze and warm winter, means thin ice.
IMO this year has many of the ingredients needed for that, provided we won't see a weather related stall, due to extremely cold july and august temps where normal summer temps would finish the job.
it's a theory, no claims, just sayin'
let's see
PS: i don't say that the map represents thickness reliably, in fact it doesn't, i say that it did at the end of the melt season of 2012 compared to a similar map of mid june 2012, not 100% but very close.